senior portfolio manager, diversifiedfunds & economist · 3/6/2020 · weekly economic review...
TRANSCRIPT
Weekly economic review
Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager, Diversified Funds & Economist
03/06/2020
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A look at this week’s marketsAt the close on Thursday
Source: iA Economics, data via Bloomberg *WTD/YTD = Week-to-date / Year-to-date
Week-to-date Year-to-date
Canadian Bonds (total return) Local currency In CAD Local currency In CAD
FTSE TMX Universe 1.75% 5.45%
FTSE TMX Long 2.50% 8.63%
Corps 1.25% 4.39%
Equities (total return)
S&P/TSX 1.84% -2.50%
S&P 500 2.39% 2.42% -6.07% -3.03%
MSCI EAFE 1.17% 2.75% -8.15% -5.56%
MSCI Emerging 3.00% 3.43% -4.21% -3.59%
Other Current price Return WTD* Return YTD*
Oil (WTI) 45.90 $ 2.55% -24.83%
USD/CAD 0.7457 $ -0.03% -3.14%
Gold 1 672.23 $ 5.46% 10.21%
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Coronavirus:Looking under control in China, Europe is following the same trend
Cumulative number of COVID-19 cases:
China vs Europe
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Global economy:China hurting big, U.S. still doing fine
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Fed & Bank of Canada:Concerted rate cuts of 50 bps each
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Interest rates:At all-time lows
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Markets:Still dominated by fear
Source : WSJ & CNN Money
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Wall Street:Biden back from the dead after a strong Super Tuesday
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Wall Street:Bottoming is a process…
Source : Strategas
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Wall Street:Corrections are generally erased after 4-6 months…
Source : BCA
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Reactions of governmental authorities:Fiscal stimulus announcements abound
Equivalent to 3.5 Trillion USD!
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What we’ll be watching next week
• Canada:
Housing Starts (last month: 213.2K in January)
Building Permits (last month: +7.4% MoM in December)
Existing Home Sales (last month: -2.9% MoM in January)
• U.S.:
CPI Inflation (consensus: lower at 2.2% YoY in February)
Core CPI Inflation (consensus: stable at 2.3% YoY in February)
• Europe:
ECB Rate Decision (consensus: 10 bps rate cut to -0.60%)
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To reach and follow us:
www.ia.ca/economy and LinkedIn
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Disclaimer
Opinions expressed in this presentation are based on actual
market conditions and may change without prior warning. The
aim is in no way to make investment recommendations. The
forecasts given in this presentation do not guarantee returns and
imply risks, uncertainty and assumptions. Although we are
comfortable with these assumptions, there is no guarantee that
they will be confirmed.
Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc.