C01040384 I .

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_(l · I E.O. 13526, section 1.4(c) ·~ - ---··

The SEIB must be returned to CIA within 5 working days

Tuesday, 5 March 2002 National Security lnfonnation

Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions Reproduction of this Document Prohibited

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DECLASSIFIED UNDER AUTHORITY OF THE INTERAGENCY SECURiTYCLASSIFICA TION APPEALS PANEL. . E.O. 13526, SECTION 5.3(b )(3) ISCAP No. J,003 --04b , Document _l__Date -oL-r )-4 UJ f~

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TOP SECRE'f.._____________. I E.O. 13526, section 1.4(c)

. Table ofContents

1-'Regionai Notes (.HPortion identified tJl N

a~ IIVII-It:O~I-'VII~IVC

to the appeal I . ~i Venezuela· Chavez Beleaguered but Opposition Divided.--1----,1~ 3 · ~-Americas . ..,.' I I ~-et"'Ortlon 1aentmea

as non-responsive to the appeal

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5 !llarch 2002

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AMERICAS

Venezuela: ·

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Chavez Beleaguered, but Opposition Divided IE.O. 13526, section 1.4(c)L...l---'

Opposition to President Chavez is mounting. A public opinion poll last month indicates 53 percent of Venezuelans want Chavez to step down. up from 36 percent last August. Calls for his resignation by public offiCials and private-sector leaders are becoming·daily occurrences.

-Even some ofChallez's former aUies are turning on him Luis Miquilena; Chavez's political mentor and fonner!nterior Minister. is working with o osition rou s trying to persuade Chavez to resign, q E.0.13526, section l.4(c)

The military also is divided in its supportfor Chavez. The high command backs the President, E.O. 13526 section 1.4 c d

- A successful coup would be difficult to mount The mill cherishes . its apolitical role, E.O. 13526, section 1.4(c)(d) and the anned forces as an institution would only move against the President after a blatant abuse of power. such as disbanding the. legislature. · I II E.O. 13526, section 1.4(c) I · . ·

Venezuela's worsening economy willfuel additional discord. The cost of basic consumer goods-about 70 percent of which are imported-is rising because of last month's cUrrency devaluation. cutting into Chavez's support among poor Venezuelans, his core constituency. Declining real wages will embolden already hostile labor unions. ·

- The opposition is planning demonstrations this spring, including a general strike scheduled for 18 March. I 1. · .-1E-.-0-.-1-35_2_6::_,-se-c-ti-on_1._4_(c-)-,

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Opposition leaders are nOt unified andiack a singular strategyfor replacing Chavez. Most opposition leaders are seeking a constitutional mechanism for removing him, but existing legal means, such as impeachment, are cumbersome. Chavez's control over the National Assembly has helped stall legislation that would enable recall votes at the midpoint of a president's term.l ~ · ·

I I E.O. 13526, section 1.4(c)

I E.O. 13526, section 1.4(c)

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