semiconductor industry trends and wh t th m t cmpwhat they

Semiconductor Industry Trends andWh t Th M t CMPWhat They Mean to CMP

NCCAVS CMP User’s Group – July 17, 2007NCCAVS CMP User s Group July 17, 2007Robert L. Rhoades, Ph.D. (Entrepix, Inc.)Karey Holland, Ph.D. (Techcet Group, LLC)

Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information

Semiconductor Materials Information

Overview

Semiconductor Industry Trends and What They Mean to CMP

Market Drivers and Transitions

Trend #1 – Continuing “Speedsters”

Trend #2 – The New Mainstream

Trend #3 – Emerging Devicesg g

What Does All This Mean for CMP?

Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information2

Market Driver – The Consumer

Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium – Hans Stork, CTO, Texas Instruments

• Transition: 51% of semiconductor devices produced in 2005 were for consumer products.for consumer products.

• Effects of a consumer driven market –“Consumers DemandConsumers Demand More for Less” and ‘More in Less’.

• Historically enabled byHistorically enabled by innovations following Moore’s Law.


A Consumer-Driven Transition

Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium –Steve Newberry, CEO, Lam Research Corporation • Consumers are paying less AND getting more,

even though ASPs have flattened.• Companies that have adapted still continue• Companies that have adapted still continue

posting better financial returns.Conclusion:• Appropriate mfg - 300mm (digital), 200/150mm

(analog) & extending the useful life of fabs and(analog) & extending the useful life of fabs and process platforms

C % i• Consumers % increases.• Unit volumes increasing while ASPs flat.Conclusion:• Price / cost reduction is critical.


• Speed – short life cycles; fast market response.Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium –Bill McClean, President, IC Insights

Technology Nodes

• Historical progression for >20 years0.5 um 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.15 90 nm 65 nm etc.

• Devices, equipment platforms, even entire fabs were , q p p ,identified by their “target node”

• Industry language referenced the expectations• Industry language referenced the expectations Leading edge – mainstream – trailing edgeEarly adopters – fast followers – late stageEtEtc.

Changes now well underway may provide alternative ways of looking at the industry.


alternative ways of looking at the industry.

Industry GroupingsParticularly from a CMP perspective

• Group I – The most advanced, leading edge devices

y p p

– Wafer sizes: 300mm & possibly 450mm (future)– Technology nodes: 65nm, 45nm and below– Materials: high k, metal gates, ULK, Cu barriers, etc.

• Group II – Improvements to mainstream ICs– Wafer sizes: 200mm & 150mm– Technology nodes: 90nm to 350nm and above

Materials: oxides tungsten etcPhoto displayed with permission of– Materials: oxides, tungsten, etc.

• Group III – Emerging technologies & new applications– Wafer sizes: 200mm, 150mm, 100mm and smaller

with permission of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc.

– Technology nodes: various– Materials: wide range of metals, oxides, polymers, and more– MEMS, nanotechnology, SiC, GaN, optics, etc.


Overview








Segment Characteristics

Financial Factors and Trends Across 3 Industry Segments

EmergingNew MainstreamSpeedster

Level Direction Level Direction Level Direction

Average Annual Capital High

Technology R&D High

Financial Factor

Technology R&D High

Manufacturing Cost/chip High

Volume High -

Average Selling Price (ASP) HighAverage Selling Price (ASP) High


Moore’s Law

100,000,000

1,000,000,000

Moore's Law Illustrated by selected Intel® microprocessor benchmarks

Itanium

Itanium 2Microprocessor transistors per chip h i d b

1 000 000

10,000,000

r chi

p (a

ppro

x.)

Pentium

Pentium III

486 Pentium II

have increased by over 5 orders of magnitude in 35 years.

Current generation

100,000

1,000,000Tr

ansi

stor

s pe

r

286

8086

386

Current generation chips have more than 1.7 billion transistors

Photo and CMP are 2 iti l

1,000

10,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

4004

8080

critical processes required to stay on trend line:

• Photo SHRINKSPhoto SHRINKS

• CMP STACKS Moore’s Law has not been derailed by industry cycles, technology hurdles, or the economy ... but it does not really apply to every semiconductor company only the


semiconductor company … only the “Speedsters”!

Speedster Summary

• Typical companies: microprocessor and yp p pmemory makers, large-scale foundries

• Willing to spend capital on new fab i ( l 300 )construction (mostly 300 mm)

• Willing to adapt new materials or processes as needed to achieve performanceas needed to achieve performance

• Designs AND process technology both change at a rapid pacec a ge at a ap d pace

• Design focus = performance• Process focus = speed or acceptable yield


p p y

Overview










Speedster New Mainstream Emerging


Average Annual Capital High Moderate

Technology R&D High Moderate

Financial Factor

Technology R&D High Moderate

Manufacturing Cost/chip High Moderate

Volume High - High

Average Selling Price (ASP) High LowAverage Selling Price (ASP) High Low -


Manufacturing Complexity

VOLUME TECHNOLOGY COST

+ + +1995 2001 2007

Glass (oxide) Glass (oxide) Glass (oxide)Tungsten Tungsten Tungsten

Copper CopperShallow Trench Shallow Trench

Polysilicon PolysiliconLow k

Cap Ultra Low kMetal Gates

Gate InsulatorsHi h k Di l t i


Sources: Cabot Microelectronics Corp. & Entrepix, Inc. High k DielectricsIr & Pt Electrodes

Magnetics

New Mainstream Summary

• Wide range of products including digital, analog, g p g g , g,mixed signal, power, etc.

• Adapting to a world of flat or falling ASP’s• Cost factors and yield becoming MUCH more

important than technology factors• Some devices enjoy long lifecycles (but not all)• Some devices enjoy long lifecycles (but not all)• Designs may change rapidly, but process technology

intentionally being held much more stable• Design focus = features and simplicity• Process focus = cost and maximizing yield


Overview










Speedster New Mainstream Emerging


Average Annual Capital High Moderate Low -

Technology R&D High Moderate High

Financial Factor

Technology R&D High Moderate High

Manufacturing Cost/chip High Moderate High

Volume High - High Low

Average Selling Price (ASP) High Low HighAverage Selling Price (ASP) High Low - High


Growth in Applications

CMP is still evolving for CMOS applications ... And many newer applications are now also being developed pp g pbeyond “traditional” CMP.

• Integrated Optics• MEMS- Grating structures- Embedded waveguides- Integrated optical elements

- Oxides (doped or undoped)- Polysilicon (usually structural)- Nitrides and oxynitrides- Separation layer (MEMS-first or MEMS-last)

Metals (esp for reflective surfaces)• Other

- Phase change memory materials- Photoresist and other polymers- Magnetic materials (active or shielding)

- Metals (esp. for reflective surfaces)

• Advanced Substrates- Strained layer epi substrates- Custom III-IV and II-IV epi layers g ( g)

- Advanced packaging- 3D IC’s and similar device technologies

p y- SOI- GaN, GaP, SiC, etc.- Various surfaces for direct wafer bonding


Example: MEMS

Typical Devices:Accelerometers

Typical MaterialsUndoped oxides (TEOS, silane, etc.)Accelerometers

Torque sensors

Optical devices

Microfluidic processors

Undoped oxides (TEOS, silane, etc.)

Doped oxides (PSG, BPSG, etc.)

Polysilicon

Some metals (specialized apps)Microfluidic processors

Key Aspects of the Application

Some metals (specialized apps)

Materials and core processes generally adapted from CMOS fabrication

CMP is an enabling technology for many designs

Thicknesses and step heights substantially larger than typical of CMOS

Lengthy polish times challenge process stability & consumables lifetime

Ph t d l d d f b it i l di S di N ti l L b


Photos downloaded from web sites, including Sandia National Lab

Emerging Segment Summary

• Many products not even based on traditional CMOSy p• Often adapting silicon CMOS process techniques• Startup or new entry mentality• Frequently start on smaller wafer sizes and transition

up as volume production increasesProcess technology is generally not mature due to• Process technology is generally not mature due to some fraction of “creative” steps

• Design focus = new devicesg• Process focus = achieving acceptable yield and ramp


Overview








The Challenge for CMP

Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium – Steve Newberry, CEO, Lam Research Corporation

CMP LIFECYCLECMP LIFECYCLE

CChallenging Realities:• Continued consolidation and collaboration• Reduce cost and mitigate risk• Accelerate time to revenue


• Accelerate time to revenue• Maximize responsiveness & ultimately financial return

Forecast CMP Wafer Passes

80

60

70

lions

).

CuWOx SilicaSTI C i

40

50

asse

s (M

ill STI Ceria

20

30

Waf

er P

a

0

10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Growth of Cu in Memory and Logic

100%

80%

Star

ts

40%

60%

Cu

Waf

er S

0%

20%

%

0%


Semiconductor Process Materials Growth History ($millions / year)

Not surprisingly, materials targeted for CMP and photolithography (masks + PR) have highest growth rates

$12,000

Wet ChemicalsTargetsSiC*

photolithography (masks PR) have highest growth rates

$8,000

$10,000

$ ,SiC*QuartzAncillaries*Photoresist*

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000 MasksGraphiteGasesCMP*

$0

$ ,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Cu Plating*Interconnect*High k*


2007 CMP Pad Market Share

P d M k t Sh E t 2006 $600Pad Market Share Est. 2006

Thomas WestI

PPGOthers

$600

$M)

JSRInc. $400

even

ues

($Rohm and Haas

Electronic Materials

$200

Pad

Re

$02004 2005 2006 2007


Oxide CMP Abrasives

25%140V

20%

25%

100

140

$M)

Volumes S

10%

15%

60

100

even

ues

( Shipped (%

Colloidal Revenues

Fumed Revenues

10%

Re %

)

Volume % ColloidalFumed Revenues

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070


Post CMP Clean Chemicals

4500 90%

3500

4000

70%

80%

Perc

2000

2500

3000

KLi

ters

40%

50%

60%

cent Chan

1000

1500

2000K

20%

30%

40%

nge Yr/Y

r

0

500

0%

10%


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Decision Drivers

How is any of this information useful?How is any of this information useful?

Management decisions are influenced by certain perspectives and trends depending on business modelperspectives and trends depending on business model

and market segment.

EQUIPMENT Willing to buy for new fabs or to retool existing fabsDrive improvements in both capability and productivity

Speedsters

CONSUMABLES Push performance in nearly every aspect of CMPDefectivity is becoming an increasing focus

MATERIALS Adapt existing materials whenever feasible, but …Will not hesitate to integrate new materials when necessary


Decision Drivers

Preserve capital and extend depreciated tools whenever possible

New Mainstream

EQUIPMENTPreserve capital and extend depreciated tools whenever possibleBuy tools only for "must have" capacity expansionsGenerally staying focused on 200mm and below

CONSUMABLES Extreme focus on reducing cost per waferDefectivity and other factors to improve yield are also key

MATERIALS Adapt proven materials and process methods … period.Optimize process flows for simplicity and yield

EQUIPMENTPreserve capital and minimize overheadOutsourcing is a strong trend (fabless)Generally start at small wafer sizes and work up to 200mm

Emerging Technology

CONSUMABLES Not locked in to "traditional" CMP pad/slurry offeringsLots of small-volume niche opportunities

MATERIALS Willing to explore a wide range of materials for unique propertiesProcess requirements vary by several orders of magnitude


Th kThank you…


What is CMP…

CMP = Chemical Mechanical Polishing (Planarization)• Developed by IBM in late 1980’s. Licensed to and quickly

No CMP – Traditional Device

p y q yadopted by both Intel and Micron in the early 1990’s

• Key manufacturing process required to planarize and smooth critical surfaces during manufacturing which improves device performance and yield

(a) Side View (b) Top View(a) Side View (b) Top View

Carrier (head) Pad ConditionerSlurry Feed

4 Basic CMP Steps – Newer Device

Platen

Carrier (head)

Polishing Pad

Wafer W Via

ILD

Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information31Pictures courtesy of Medtronic, Inc.

Slurry Feed PMD

W Plug

2006 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)

MPU and ASIC Interconnect Technology Requirements—Near-term YearsMPU and ASIC Interconnect Technology Requirements Near term Years

Year of Production 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

DRAM ½ Pit h ( )DRAM ½ Pitch (nm) (contacted) 80 70 65 57 50 45 40 36 32

MPU/ASIC Metal 1 ½ Pitch (nm)(contacted) 90 78 68 59 52 45 40 36 32

MPU Physical Gate Length (nm) 32 28 25 22 20 18 16 14 13

Number of DRAM metal levels 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Number of MPU metal levels + optional 11 +4 11 + 4 11 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 13 + 4


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