[semi theater] fab spending and capacity trends

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Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, Sr. Analyst, SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Spending for memories surge again, while LED fabs brightens the future. The presentation will show fab spending and capacity trends from past to end of 2011. Presented at the SEMI Theater at SEMICON WEST on July 14, 2010.

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. Companies Roar Again: Fab Spending and Capacity Trends Christian Gregor Dieseldorff SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group SEMI Theater at SEMICON West 2010 July 14, 2010
  • 2. Sources and definition All numbers (historic and forecast) are from the SEMI World Fab Watch and World Fab Forecast Check for Fab Database reports: www.semi.org/fabs All forecasts are estimates. Forecasted numbers shown are subject to change. Final numbers are available through one of SEMIs Fab Database Reports. All data refer to Front End Facilities All capacity numbers are installed capacity in 200mm equivalent wafers per month (wpm) unless otherwise specified. All spending numbers are in US$ unless otherwise specified. Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 2
  • 3. Outline Overview of World Fab Database Reports Construction Projects Equipping Fabs Capacities LEDs Summary Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 3
  • 4. Acknowledgement I Good Times in the Middle of Somewhat More Than Normal Uncertainty Quarterly Fab Report, July 2010 George Burns President Strategic Marketing Associates Verify, verify, verify Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 4
  • 5. Overview of World Fab Database Reports Semiconductor Front End Facilities (no Back End, Assembly & Test) Volume production, Pilot, R&D, Consortia Includes: such as EPI Wafer fabs, MEMS fabs, LEDs, Discretes Closed/ For Sale Main features: Construction $ Equipping Excel 3 Years of data Capacities Wafer Sizes Forecast (1 years) Tech Nodes Products By Fab on quarterly basis Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 5
  • 6. Overview of World Fab Database Reports Available Fab Database Reports World Fab Forecast (over 1000 records) World Fab Watch (over 1000 records) Overview and Activity FabFutures (only fabs with investments) World Fab Forecast May 2010: NEW: Opto/LED Fab Watch Total changes: 299 on 235 fabs Transition Report New records: 25 (Fabs closed, will be closed, for sale etc) Total number of records: 1117 Custom reports such as Operational: 994 (Volume: 804) - Regional Report (NA, China, Japan) Future Facilities: 69* - Historic Reports - Product Type * Future Facilities with various probabilities - 300mm report - Construction Monitor - Fabs Equipping Monitor Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 6
  • 7. Fab Construction Projects Fab Construction Projects Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 7
  • 8. Fab Construction Projects: Spending by Region In US$ Million Spending on Construction Projects (Front End) $9,000 250% $8,000 200% Taiwan $7,000 SE Asia 150% $6,000 S. Korea $5,000 100% Japan $4,000 50% Europe & ME $3,000 China 0% $2,000 Americas -50% $1,000 Change % $- -100% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010) Spending on Fab construction projects in 2009 was below $1.6 Billion (lowest since at least 1995) Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 8
  • 9. Fab Construction Projects: New Facilities Starting Construction IV Probability >60%. Showing: Volume + (R&D/Pilots) 2010: Europe/Mideast: 1 2010: Americas: 3 2010: Korea: 2 2010: China: 8 2010: Japan: 3 2010: Taiwan: 4 2011: S.Korea: 1 2010: 21 facilities: Only 9 are Non-Discrete Volume Fabs Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010 9
  • 10. Equipping Fabs