seeing is believing – synergy amongst lake erie plankton and...

Seeing is believing – synergy amongst Lake Erie plankton and nutrients, exotic

species, and climate change

Joseph D. Conroy, Douglas D. Kane, Erin L. Quinlan, and David A. Culver

Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal BiologyThe Ohio State University

Columbus, Ohio

The Fourth Biennial Conference of the Lake Erie Millennium Network – 28 February 2006

AcknowledgementsFunding sources

– Ohio Division of Wildlife, Department of Natural Resources

– United States Environmental Protection Agency

– Ohio Lake Erie Commission, Lake Erie Protection Fund

– Ohio Sea Grant College Program/ F.T. Stone Laboratory

– The Ohio State University

Collaborators– Murray Charlton, Dave Dolan, Bob Heath, Bill

Edwards, Matt Thomas, LETS collaboratorsLab Technicians

– Nate Gargasz, Erin Haas, Ruth Briland, Valerie Crane, Erin Greenlee, Kyla Hershey, Caitlin McDonnell, Jeff Niehaus, Maggie Spoo, Elaina Smith, and Christine Sweeney

Field Assistants– Mindy Beam, Mark Dufour, Shannon Percival

LETS Observations1. Historically low [chlorophyll a]2. Increased [TP] w/o increased external TP load3. Continued central basin hypolimnetic hypoxia

Our ContributionInvestigate 1. to determine relationship with 2. & 3.Merge historical data w/ Lake Erie Plankton Abundance Survey

PhytoplanktonDeVault & Rockwell. 1986. GLNPO Rpt.Makarewicz. 1993a. JGLR. Makarewicz et al. 1999. JGLR.Munawar & Munawar. 1976. J. Fish. Res.

Board Can.

ZooplanktonBean. 1980. M.S. Thesis, OSU.Makarewicz. 1993b. JGLR.Watson & Carpenter. 1974. J. Fish. Res.

Board Can.Weisgerber. 2000. M.S. Thesis, OSU.

HypothesesH0: No change

HTP: External Total Phosphorus load controls Total Phytoplankton Biomass

HZM: Zebra Mussels (dreissenids) removed TPP

HClim: Climatological factors affect TPP

Historical TPP Data

Historical TPP Data

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4 Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

Historical TPP Data

Spring

Basin

WB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-78

From Munawar & Munawar 1976

Historical TPP Data

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

83-88/89

83-88/89

83-88/89

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-7883-88/89

83-88/89 83-88/89

From Makarewicz et al. 1999

Historical TPP Data

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

83-88/89

83-88/89

83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-93

89/90-93

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-7883-88/89

83-88/89 83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-9389/90-93

From Makarewicz et al. 1999

Predictors & Effects Matrix

Period

1970-78

1983-88

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04

Predictors


Period Ext. TP ZM H20 Level PPT

1970-78

1983-88

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04

Predictors


Period Ext. TP ZM H20 Level PPT

1970-78

1983-88

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04

Predictors Effect on TPP


Period Ext. TP ZM H20 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors

1970-78

1983-88

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04



Period Ext. TP ZM H20 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction

1970-78

1983-88

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04



Period Ext. TP ZM H20 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed

1970-78

1983-88

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04


Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Ext

. Tot

al P

Loa

d (k

iloto

nnes

)

8

12

16

20

24

28

Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication

Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading

Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Ext

. Tot

al P

Loa

d (k

iloto

nnes

)

8

12

16

20

24

28



1970-78

1983-88 =/

1989-93 =/

1996-97 =/

1998-2002

2003-04 ?( )




1970-78 -

1983-88 -

1989-93 Invaded, Max Density

1996-97 = 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93

2003-04 = 1998-2002




1970-78 -

1983-88 =/ -

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002


Lake Erie Water Level

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Wat

er L

evel

(m a

bove

sea

leve

l)

172

173

174

175

176

Data from Station 9063063, NOAA NOS CO-OPS

Lake Erie Water Level

Data from Station 9063063, NOAA NOS CO-OPS

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Wat

er L

evel

(m a

bove

sea

leve

l)

172

173

174

175

176



1970-78 =

1983-88

1989-93 =

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04




1970-78 - =

1983-88 =/ -

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density =

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002


Precipitation

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Tota

l Pre

cipi

tatio

n (c

m)

0

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Data from Station 331657, NCDC

Precipitation

Data from Station 331657, NCDC

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Tota

l Pre

cipi

tatio

n (c

m)

0

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140



1970-78

1983-88 =

1989-93

1996-97

1998-2002

2003-04 ?




1970-78 - =

1983-88 =/ - =

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density =

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002 ?




1970-78 Highest

1983-88 =/ < 1970-78

1989-93 =/ = 1983-88

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93

1998-2002 < 1996-97

2003-04 ?( ) ?(>)




1970-78 - -

1983-88 - -

1989-93 Invaded, Max Density < 1983-88

1996-97 = 1989-93 = 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93 > 1996-97

2003-04 = 1998-2002 = 1998-2002




1970-78 = Highest

1983-88 = </= 1970-78

1989-93 = > 1983-88

1996-97 > 1989-93

1998-2002 < 1996-97

2003-04 ? ?




1970-78 - = Highest - Highest

1983-88 =/ - = < 1970-78 - </= 1970-78

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? ?( ) = 1998-2002 ?




1970-78 - = Highest - Highest Highest

1983-88 =/ - = < 1970-78 - </= 1970-78 < 1970-78

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 ˜ 1983-88

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 ˜ 1996-97

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? =/> 1998-2002?




1970-78 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest

1983-88 =/ - = < 1970-78 - </= 1970-78 < 1970-78 < 1970-78

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 ˜ 1983-88 < 1983-88

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93

1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 ˜ 1996-97

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? =/> 1998-2002?


Results – Recent TPP Data

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

83-88/89

83-88/89

83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-93

89/90-93

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-7883-88/89

83-88/89 83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-9389/90-93


Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

83-88/89

83-88/89

83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-93

89/90-9396-97 96-97

96-97

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-7883-88/89

83-88/89 83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-9389/90-93

96-9796-97 96-97

From LEPAS


From LEPAS

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

83-88/89

83-88/89

83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-93

89/90-9396-97 96-97

96-97

98-02

98-02

98-02

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-7883-88/89

83-88/89 83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-9389/90-93

96-9796-97 96-97

98-02

98-0298-02


From LEPAS

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

1

2

3

4

70-78

70-7870-78

83-88/89

83-88/89

83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-93

89/90-9396-97 96-97

96-97

98-02

98-02

98-02

03-04

03-04

03-04

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

0

2

4

6

8

70-78

70-78

70-7883-88/89

83-88/89 83-88/89

89/90-93

89/90-9389/90-93

96-9796-97 96-97

98-02

98-0298-02

03-04

03-04

03-04

Conroy et al. In press. JGLR

Predictors, Effects, & Results Matrix


1970-78 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest

1983-88 =/ - = < 1970-78 - </= 1970-78 < 1970-78 < 1970-78

1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 ˜ 1983-88 < 1983-88

1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93 < 1989-93 << 1983-88

1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 ˜ 1996-97 >> 1996-97 > 1989-93

2003-04 ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? ?( ) = 1998-2002 ? =/> 1998-2002? = 1998-2002


A similar analysis for zooplankton?A similar analysis for zooplankton?

Total Crustacean Zooplankton Biomasses

Spring

BasinWB CB EB

TCZP

(dry

mg

L-1)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

70-7570-75

70-7584-87 84-87 84-87

96-9796-97

96-97

98-02

98-02

98-02

03-04 03-04

03-04

Summer

BasinWB CB EB

TCZP

(dry mg L

-1)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.470-75

70-75 70-75

84-87 84-87 84-87

96-97

96-97

96-97

98-02

98-0298-02

03-04 03-04

03-04

Conroy et al. In press. JGLRFrom LEPAS

What do chlorophyll What do chlorophyll a a concentrations tell us about TPP?concentrations tell us about TPP?

Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP

Chl a Conc (ug L-1)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

20

40

60

80

From LEPAS


Chl a Conc (ug L-1)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

20

40

60

80

TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001

R2 = 0.04From LEPAS


ln Chl a Conc (ug L-1)-4 -2 0 2 4

ln TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

-8

-4

0

4

8

Chl a Conc (ug L-1)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

20

40

60

80

TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001

R2 = 0.04From LEPAS


Chl a Conc (ug L-1)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

20

40

60

80

ln Chl a Conc (ug L-1)-4 -2 0 2 4

ln TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

-8

-4

0

4

8

TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001

R2 = 0.04From LEPAS


Chl a Conc (ug L-1)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

20

40

60

80

ln Chl a Conc (ug L-1)-4 -2 0 2 4

ln TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

-8

-4

0

4

8

TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001

R2 = 0.04

ln TPP = -0.78 + 0.34 x ln [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 77.65, P < 0.001

R2 = 0.07From LEPAS


Chl a Conc (ug L-1)0 5 10 15 20 25 30

TPP

(wet

mg

L-1)

0

20

40

60

80

ln Chl a Conc (ug L-1)-4 -2 0 2 4

ln TPP

(wet m

g L-1)

-8

-4

0

4

8

TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 48.11, P P < 0.001< 0.001

RR22 = 0.04= 0.04

ln TPP = -0.78 + 0.34 x ln [Chl a]

F1,1047 = 77.65, P P < 0.001< 0.001

RR22 = 0.07= 0.07

Conroy et al. In press. JGLRFrom LEPAS

Cylindrospermopsis spp. in Lake Erie

Sandusky West Bay Site – 29 July 2005

Conroy et al. in prep.

Other Hypotheses for LE ChangeDreissenid nutrient remineralization

– Particulate Soluble? – Nearshore/Offshore differences?– Disparate effect on N-pool– Why Microcystis spp. now vs. N-fixers in 1970’s?Conroy et al. 2005. Freshw. Biol. 50: 1146-1162

Algal Loading– PP from Sandusky Bay affects offshore dynamics

More on these topics at IAGLR 2006Conroy et al. in prep.

Future Research NeedsContinue LEPASQuantify annual plankton spatial/temporal variabilityFurther investigation of climatic factors

– Include water temperature

Chl a:TPP in Lake Erie– Taxa contributions– Seasonal variation

Ecosystem nutrient analysisHierarchical process modeling

– Near/offshore?– Trophic levels?

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seeing is believing – synergy amongst lake erie plankton and...

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