Taj HashmiProfessor, Security Studies

Asia-Pacific Center for Security StudiesHonolulu, HI 96815

Email: hashmit@apcss.org

South Asia: Political Geography

Geographical DiversityCountryCountry Population (million)Population (million) Size (sq km)Size (sq km)

AfghanistanAfghanistan 27.1 million (UN, 27.1 million (UN, 2007) 2007)

647,500 (slightly smaller than 647,500 (slightly smaller than Texas)Texas)

BangladeshBangladesh 153,546,901 (July 153,546,901 (July 2008 est.) 2008 est.)

144,000 (slightly smaller then 144,000 (slightly smaller then Iowa)Iowa)

BhutanBhutan 682,321 (2005 est.) 682,321 (2005 est.) 47,000 (About one half of the 47,000 (About one half of the size of Indiana) size of Indiana)

IndiaIndia 1,147,995,898 (July 1,147,995,898 (July 2008 est.) 2008 est.)

3,287,590 (lightly more than 3,287,590 (lightly more than one-third the size of the US ) one-third the size of the US )

Maldives Maldives

379,174 (July 2008 379,174 (July 2008 est.)est.)

300 (about 1.7 times the size 300 (about 1.7 times the size of Washington, D.C.) of Washington, D.C.)

NepalNepal 29,519,114 (July 2008 29,519,114 (July 2008 est.) est.)

147,181 (slightly larger than 147,181 (slightly larger than Arkansas) Arkansas)

PakistanPakistan 167,762,040 (July 167,762,040 (July 2008 est.) 2008 est.)

803,940 (Slightly less than 803,940 (Slightly less than twice the size of CA) twice the size of CA)

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 21,128,773 21,128,773 65,610 (slightly larger than 65,610 (slightly larger than

West VA) West VA)

South Asia’s biggest threat comes from within

South Asian “Subcontinent” from Afghanistan to Bangladesh home to more than 1.5 billion ethno-religiously and linguistically diverse people

Around 50% illiterate, 40% living below the Poverty Line

Home to Authoritarian regimes and Flawed Democracy

South Asia struggling with itself, countries fear most their own neighbors

Postcolonial Syndrome: Lack of mutual trust, respect & accountability

Understanding of “Postcolonialism” essential: Bad governance, poverty and corruption: the chicken and egg story – Unaccountability, a colonial legacy

Ethno-national insurgencies, separatism, terrorism, narco-terrorism, religious extremism, Maoism are by-products of bad governance

Ethnic (racial) & religious divide & acute regionalism – Hindu-Muslim, Punjabi-Bengali, Southern-Northern, eastern-Western

Uneven distribution of wealth & opportunities ; Water & food scarcity; uneven growth & development due to prejudice, neglect and artificial states / regions

South Asia’s Security Threats: Interstate & Intrastate

Interstate Conflicts: India vs. Pakistan – Kashmir, the mother of all Indo-Pakistan conflicts, the Legacy of the Partition of 1947, or problems of artificial statehood

India vs. Bangladesh , India vs. Nepal. India vs. Sri Lanka and Pakistan vs. Afghanistan

Intrastate Conflicts: Hindu vs. Muslim, Northeast India vs. New Delhi, Northwest vs. North India – Advanced vs. Backward

NWFP-FATA and Baluchistan and Sind – Punjabis vs. Others, Sindhis vs. Indian Muslim Immigrants in Pakistan– East Pakistan vs. West Pakistan led to Bangladesh (1971)

Tamil vs. Sinhalese in Sri Lanka led to 26-year-long civil war

South Asia’s Transnational Security Threats (I)

Non-State Actors’ Game: Transnational crime, insurgencies, terrorism, narco-terrorism the biggest security challenges for South Asia – Across Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Bangladesh-Myanmar

Internal factors: Marginalization of people, discrimination against ethno-national-religious-linguistic groups –Religious and Secular/communist insurgencies due to alienation of people

Artificial states and problem of identity: Common race, language, religion, sect, ideology unite people across the borders– Kashmir, Afghanistan, NWFP/FATA, Baluchistan, Northeast India, Southeastern Bangladesh, Southwestern Myanmar

By-products of proxy wars: Bleed the “enemy nation”, often backfires, – Kashmir, Baluchistan, NWFP, Assam, Southeast Bangladesh

South Asia’s Transnational Security Threats (II)

Narco-Islamist Terrorism: Drug-mafia, warlord and Taliban-al-Qaeda nexus, Dawood Ibrahim, Lashkar-e-Taiyeba (LET) and Mumbai Massacre (November 2008)

Exploitation of Ethno-National & Religious Causes: Kashmir, Pashtun Identity, Baluchistan, Refugee / Displaced / Marginalized people’s vulnerability exploited in the name of religion & nationalism, Maoism is the latest threat in India, Bangladesh and Nepal

Transnational Security Threats transcend national boundaries: They go beyond South Asia– Russia, Chechnya, Dagestan, Central Asia, Middle East, Xinjiang, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines

HUJI, JMB, LeT, JeM, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Jemah Islamiya, MILF (Southeast Asia) – Drug-Arms-Ideology

“India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors” and the Failing State Syndrome: What is to be done? (I)

India having bad to very bad relations with all its neighbors – India and Pakistan’s proxy war in Afghanistan

Need to mend fences and resolve internal problems, including Kashmir

Afghanistan going beyond control: Drug not Taliban-al-Qaeda the biggest security threat

Afghanistan needs good / accountable government – Pashtun majority must get due share in government

Afghanistan’s $750 million annul revenue & paltry foreign aid inadequate against Taliban-al Qaeda-Drug-lords’ billions of dollars

“India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors” and the Failing State Syndrome: What is to be done (II)

Pakistan must ensure equal opportunity to minorities and gradually de-Islamize the polity and must contain Dawood Ibrahim Group and Islamists & ambitious generals

Myanmar should stop persecuting Rohingya Muslim, Karen and other minorities -- China must be engaged to contain Myanmar

Iran, Saudi Arabia must be engaged to contain Islamism

Good governance must be ensured in South Asia, especially Afghanistan – “American War” must become “Everyone’s War” beyond the NATO – Human Security not Guns alone can ensure security