sector update : otomotif (astra group) update/sectoral...your trusted professional 2 tren kenaikan...
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Your Trusted Professional
PT Mega Capital IndonesiaPT Mega Capital IndonesiaPT Mega Capital Indonesia
Sector Update :Otomotif (Astra Group)Agustus 2009
Your Trusted Professional 2
Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masihBerlanjut
Sumber : Gaikindo & AISI
Domestic Auto Sales Trend
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2W Sales 4W Sales
Dampak darikrisis global
Tren penurunan BI rate&penguatan nilai tukar
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Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masihBerlanjut
Sumber : Perseroan
Astra Auto Sales
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2W 4W (RHS)
Your Trusted Professional 4
Pangsa Pasar Otomotif Astra
4W Market Share as June 2009
Astra, 59.5%
Honda, 6.6%
Mitsubishi, 12.1%
Suzuki, 9.5%Others, 12.2%
2W Market Share as June 2009
Others, 0.05%
Kawasaki, 1.44%
Suzuki, 8.74%
Yamaha, 45.06%
Astra/Honda, 44.70%
Your Trusted Professional 5
BI Rate vs Auto Sales
BI Rate vs 4W Sales
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%
4W Sales BI Rate
BI Rate vs 2W Sales
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100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2W Sales BI Rate
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Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Breakdown (IDR bio) 1H08 1H09 % % to total revenueOtomotif 25,076 22,811 -9.0% 51.0%Financial services 3,793 3,974 4.8% 8.9%Agribusiness 4,645 3,538 -23.8% 7.9%Information technology 373 673 80.4% 1.5%Heavy equipment and mining 12,591 13,883 10.3% 31.0%Others 13 129 892.3% 0.3%
Total 46,267 44,761 -3.3% 100.0%
Kontribusi pendapatan yang cukupbesar dari UNTR
Penjualan mobil dan motor 1H09 masing-masing turun 18% dan17% YoY.
Penurunan harga CPO
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Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi
ASII's 1H09 Result1H08 1H09 %
Net revenue 46,267 44,761 -3.3%Cost of revenue (35,191) (34,122) -3.0%Gross profit 11,076 10,639 -3.9%Operating expenses (4,466) (4,753) 6.4%Operating income 6,610 5,886 -11.0%Other income/expenses 378 572 51.3%Share of results of associates 1,154 896 -22.4%Profit before income tax 8,142 7,354 -9.7%Income tax expenses (2,289) (1,965) -14.2%Income before minority interests 5,853 5,389 -7.9%Minority interests (1,100) (1,146) 4.2%Net income 4,753 4,243 -10.7%EPS 1,174 1,048
1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 23.9% 23.8% -0.7%Operating Profit Margin 14.3% 13.1% -8.0%Net Profit Margin 10.3% 9.5% -7.7%
58% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus, 57% dari ekspektasi kami
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Revenue Breakdown
Revenue 1H09 Breakdown(IDR Bio) 2008 2009 % Change % to total revenueConstruction Machinery 6,364 5,464 -14.1% 39.4%Mining contracting 4,653 6,888 48.0% 49.6%Mining 1,575 1,532 -2.7% 11.0%Total 12,592 13,884 10.3% 100.0%
Penjualan Komatsu turun 44%
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Mesin Konstruksi (Komatsu)
Construction Machinery (Komatsu)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
in Unit
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Agro Construction Forestry Mining Total(RHS)
Permintaan dari sektorpertambangan/perkebunan masih kuat
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Coal Sales Volume(Dasa Eka Jasatama)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
000 ton
Pertambangan
Turun karenapermasalahanpengiriman (shipment)
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Overburden Removal (Pamapersada)
Overburden Removal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09
mio bcm
• Kontributor pendapatanterbesar bagi UNTR
• Aktivitas pertambanganmasih cukup kuat
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Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi
UNTR's1H 2009 Result(IDR Bio) 2008 2009 %Net Revenue 12,592 13,884 10.3%COGS (10,134) (10,660) 5.2%Gross profit 2,458 3,225 31.2%Operating expenses (527) (641) 21.6%Operating Income 1,931 2,584 33.8%Other Income/expenses (68) 151 321.0%Share of results of associates 2 3 69.9%Profit before income tax 1,865 2,738 46.8%Income tax expenses (649) (848) 30.6%Income before minority interest 1,216 1,891 55.5%Minority Interest (10) (18) 82.5%Net Income 1,206 1,873 55.3%
EPS 423 563
1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 19.5% 23.2% 19.0%Operating Profit Margin 15.3% 18.6% 21.3%Net Profit Margin 9.6% 13.5% 40.8%
63% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus danekspektasi kami
Kenaikan keuntungan selisih kurs yang signifikan
Margin yang lebih tinggi, karena kemampuandalam memantain cost
Your Trusted Professional 15
Valuasi masih cukup menarik
Investment Opportunity:• Permintaan alat berat untuk sektor
berbasis komoditi masih cukup kuat• Potensial revenue yang cukup besar
dari bisnis tambang batubara(TTA&DEJ)
• Tren penurunan suku bunga danmembaiknya nilai tukar Rupiah
Investment Risk:• Sensitif terhadap perkembangan
harga komoditi&kondisi makroekonomi
Rekomendasi: BUY, TP : Rp. 14.500DCF ( WACC : 17,62%, LTG : 2% )
Key Ratio
2006A 2007A 2008A 2009F 2010F
EPS (IDR) 326 524 800 892 1,120 EPS Growth (%) -11.49% 60.48% 52.76% 11.45% 25.57%P/E (x) 20.09 20.80 6.31 16.36 13.03BV (IDR) 4,938 3,840 4,184 4,466 4,279 P/BV (x) 4.07 5.42 1.32 3.27 3.41ROE (%) 20.25% 26.04% 23.90% 22.39% 23.37%ROA (%) 8.27% 11.48% 11.65% 12.06% 12.82%DER (x) 0.92 0.67 0.40 0.37 0.33 Interest Coverage (%) 3.39 4.93 13.61 13.73 15.67
Source : Company, MCI Estimates
Your Trusted Professional 17
AALI's Monthly CPO Price 2009
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun
Rp./kg
Harga jual CPO rata-rata
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Sales vs Average Selling Price
Sales Volume (000 ton)
476.9
80.7
8 11 2.4
494
69.5
12.5 17.7 2.5
CPO Kernel PKO PKE Rubber
1H08 1H09
Average Selling Price (Rp./kg)
8,299
4,418
10,599
925
24,204
392
6,386
2,528
16,873
6,153
CPO Kernel PKO PKE Rubber
1H08 1H09
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Kinerja 1H09 sejalan dengan ekspektasi
44% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus
AALI's 1H09 ResultIDR Bio 1H08 1H09 %Net Sales 4,644.7 3,537.8 -23.8%COGS (2,106.0) (2,158.9) 2.5%Gross Profit 2,538.7 1,378.9 -45.7%Operating Income/Expense (187.3) (223.6) 19.4%Operating Profit 2,351.4 1,155.3 -50.9%Other Income/Expense 64.3 1.3 -98.0%Profit before income tax 2,415.7 1,156.6 -52.1%Income Tax Expense (760.0) (357.9) -52.9%Minority Interest (57.6) (28.8) -50.0%Net Income 1,598.1 769.9 -51.8%EPS 1,014 489 EPS Consensus FY09F 1,102
AALI's 1H09 ResultIDR Bio 1H08 1H09 %Net Sales 4,644.7 3,537.8 -23.8%COGS (2,106.0) (2,158.9) 2.5%Gross Profit 2,538.7 1,378.9 -45.7%Operating Income/Expense (187.3) (223.6) 19.4%Operating Profit 2,351.4 1,155.3 -50.9%Other Income/Expense 64.3 1.3 -98.0%Profit before income tax 2,415.7 1,156.6 -52.1%Income Tax Expense (760.0) (357.9) -52.9%Minority Interest (57.6) (28.8) -50.0%Net Income 1,598.1 769.9 -51.8%EPS 1,014 489 EPS Consensus FY09F 1,102
1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 54.7% 39.0% -28.7%Operating Margin 50.6% 32.7% -35.5%EBITDA Margin 54.3% 36.4% -33.0%Net Profit Margin 34.4% 21.8% -36.8%
1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 54.7% 39.0% -28.7%Operating Margin 50.6% 32.7% -35.5%EBITDA Margin 54.3% 36.4% -33.0%Net Profit Margin 34.4% 21.8% -36.8%
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P/E Chart
P/E FY10F (x)
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5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Market Cap EPS (Rp) P/E (x)(bio) FY09F FY10F FY09F FY10F
AALI 30,235 1,049 1,244 18.20 15.36LSIP 9,347 466 474 14.71 14.45SGRO 3,364 133 159 13.31 11.13UNSP 2,917 43 44 17.86 17.57
11466 423 480 16.02 14.63Source : MCI Estimates
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Netral
Investment Opportunity:• Harga CPO diperkirakan membaik
di kuartal 2 2009• Permintaan CPO masih besar
Investment Risk:• Faktor cuaca dan penggunaan
pupuk sangat mempengaruhiproduksi
Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 19.900P/E FY10E = 16x
Key Ratio2007 2008 2009F 2010F
EPS (IDR) 1,253 1,671 1,049 1,244 EPS Growth (%) 150.65% 33.32% -37.19% 18.49%P/E (x) 16.96 4.65 18.96 16.00BV (IDR) 2,580 3,276 3,887 4,612 P/BV (x) 10.85 2.99 5.12 4.31ROE (%) 57.96% 57.09% 29.31% 29.26%ROA (%) 44.60% 44.32% 23.95% 24.80%DER (x) 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02EV/EBITDA (x) 9.00 7.80 10.86 9.63Source : Company, MCI Estimates
Your Trusted Professional 22
Valuasi Astra International
Sum-of-the Parts Method Total Equity Value (bn) % to totalASII (parent) DCF @WACC 13,5% 48,628 39.8%UNTR DCF @TP 14.500 42,828 35.0%AALI P/E @16x FY10F 24,965 20.4%BNLI Market Cap 2,343 1.9%AUTO Market Cap 3,209 2.6%ASGR Market Cap 352 0.3%
Total value 122,324 Number of Share 4.048Equity Value per Share 30,218
Your Trusted Professional 23
Netral
Investment Opportunity:• Menguasai pangsa pasar
otomotif di Indonesia• Tren penurunan suku bunga dan
penguatan Rupiah menopangpenjualan otomotif
• Bisnis yang terdiversifikasi
Investment Risk:• Daya beli masyarakat terhadap
kendaraan bermotor belumsepenuhnya pulih
Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 30.200
P/E FY10E = 14,88x
Key Ratio2007 2008 2009F 2010F
EPS (IDR) 1,610 2,270 1,852 2,030 EPS Growth (%) 75.57% 40.99% -18.40% 9.56%P/E (x) 16.96 4.65 16.30 14.88BV (IDR) 6,660 8,171 9,572 11,109 P/BV (x) 4.10 1.29 3.17 2.73ROE (%) 24.18% 27.78% 19.35% 18.27%ROA (%) 10.26% 11.38% 8.88% 8.64%DER (x) 0.31 0.29 0.30 0.29Source : Company, MCI Estimates
Your Trusted Professional
DISCLAIMERThis Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be
reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,
its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Indonesia.
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