second pacific islands climate outlook forum - … from normal and... · el niño year the event...
TRANSCRIPT
• Name: Simon McGree• Title: Senior Climatologist• Organisation: COSPPac-BoM
Second Pacific Islands Climate Outlook ForumPICOF-2
“What was different from a 'normal' El Niño”“How accurate were the rainfall prediction models”
El Niño year the event begins
El Niño T+1 year after the eventbegins
Areas with significantly wetter (green) or drier (orange) conditions during El Niño events (left) and La Niña (right) for year T (top) and year T+1 (lower) (Smith et al. 2008)
ENSO relationship with Pacific rainfall
Drought begins in Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niuelong before 2015-16 El Niño
Drought begins in Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niuelong before 2015-16 El Niño
Warm SST anomalies in NINO 3, 4, 3.4 going back to mid-2014
SPCZ and ITCZ Displacement in early2015
Good model skill when we need it most
Statistical models still have value