CAN ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS BE USED IN FORWARD-LOOKING STUDIES?

O. Da Costa, R. Cachia, R. CompañóInstitute for Prospective and Technological Studies

Joint Research Centre / European CommissionE-41092 SEVILLA

Second International FTA Seville Seminar

September 2006

Overview

Online Social Networks (OSN): A new social phenomenon A new communication tool

OSN for detecting changing social patterns

OSN Communities on Foresight

Assets & LimitationA graph showing typical network of friends in

Orkut compiled by Orkut2dot

What are online social networks (OSN)?

OSN is a group that primarily interacts via the internet.

As online communities, they are self-organised electronic networks organised around a shared interest or purpose [Rheingold, 1993].

Significant socio-technical change has resulted from the proliferation of OSNs.

Networking by chain effect: « friends » connect with « friends-of-friends » who connect with « friends-of-friends-of-friends »

Figure by J. Layton

Communitiesof interest

Tools forNetwork communication

Networking« Friends »

OSNs: Characteristics

Member’s Profile

Example: Orkut

Orkut: An OSN Case Study

Philosophy: Organically growing network of trusted “friends“ Membership by invitation-only

Features - members can: introduce profiles (photo, hobbies, academic data, etc.) join discussions or create their own “rank” and write testimonials about others

Exponential Growth: Jan 2004 createdFeb 2004: 100 000July 2004: 1.000.000Apr 2005: 5.000.000 Jan 2006: 12.000.000Sep 2006: 29.000.000

OSN: Members Age Structure

Are they a representative selection of group who will be the “shakers and movers” in 20 years from now?

Do OSN reveal novel patterns amongst youngsters that may persist in a wider social scale?

Can we detect already: future change in social patterns or future visions (networked society)?

Orkut Feb 2006

Member are mostly young people in the18-25 age bracket with quite a gender balance.

OSN: A reflection of new social patterns?

Contacting, communicating and keeping in touch Novel spaces for communicating and interaction Difficulties in making yourself heard due to information overload

Changing Relations Roles of media? Collective collaboration Networking across geographical locations Influencing power?

How to detect signals of change?

Systematic screening networks needed. Possible selection criteria Size of networks Level of activity Area of activity

Data-mining of relational databases

OSN: Assets

Relatively high motivation for voluntary Contribution Anticipated Reciprocity, Increased Reputation, Sense of

efficacy, Communication* and Mutual trust)

Cost Relatively low with respect to alternative communication

tools

Flexibility New communities can be created any time No geographical bounders

* The Economies of Online Cooperation: Gifts and Public Goods in Cyberspace, 1999, Peter Kollock

OSN: Some Limitations

Automatic screening procedure difficult: Large networks Data may be incoherent, contradictory, incomplete or non-

codified

Role of coordinator is limited Intrinsic time delay (people to not respond

immediately) and an "open-ended character". Profiles may not always be reliable Privacy concerns Spamming and bugging might influence results Geographical bias (66.3% of Orkut members from

Brasil)

Join our OSN Foresight Community !

“Foresight & Future Studies”, Orkut, www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=143886

Disclaimer: the authors have no relation or interest in the social network application selected for this undertaking.

Other online tools with potential for Foresight

Growth of Online Social Networks

Orkut MySpace

Flickr YouTube

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Conclusion

OSN New social phenomenon Powerful large-scale communication tool Currently being researched for marketing, investigation in social

sciences and other

Objective of this presentation Initiate debate about the potential of OSN in forward-looking studies

Further work required In-depth investigation of limits, advantages and drawbacks A tested research framework, which could be used as an analytical

tool to conduct forward-looking studies Various research methodologies and complementary approaches

should be taken into consideration

Too early for assessing their potential, but prospects appear promising