sebagai solusi masalah yg terus ada kemiskinan masih...
TRANSCRIPT
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 1
Iman Santoso
Kepala Badan Penelitian danPengembangan Kehutanan
AGROFORESTRY SEBAGAI SOLUSI
Masalah yg terus ada ……..
• Populasi dan tekanan terhadap lahan
• Deforestasi dan degradasi
• Kemiskinan masih tinggi
• Ketidak adilan akses
2 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Hal-hal yang nyata …..
• Persaingan sektor: keterlanjuran
• Perubahan iklim kinerja sektor pertanian
• Globalisasi yang lemah tertekan dan kalah
• Biaya semakin tinggi, investasi kurang menarik
Agroforestry Sebagai Solusi ……. ?
Optimalisasipenggunaan lahan antarruang dan waktu
Aneka produks barangdan jasa
Teknik produksi dankonservasi yang telahada
Penghormatan pada hak-hak yang telah ada
Masalah aktual dan yang terusada:
• Deforestasi dan degradasi• Keterjangkauan pangan dan
energi• Perubahan iklim• Kemiskinan• Investasi yg kurang menarik• Populasi , Tekanan pd Lahan
dan SDA• Persaingan antar sektor• Globalisasi dan• Ketida adilan akses
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 3
Arah AGROFORESTRYPohon dalam lahan pertanian:Dari tahap subsiten subsiten dengan jaringpengaman pertanian pra-komersial pertanianyang lebih menguntungkan pertanian yang lestari
Budidaya non hutan pada areal/kawasan hutan:
Dari tahap pemanfaatan potensi sosial utkpembangunan hutan tanaman pemberian aksesproduksi kepada masyarakat keuntungan bersamabisnis hutan dan pangan
Mengapa AF Masih Sulit Berkembang
• Keberpihakan yang masih kurang
• Keraguan: teknis/finansial/pasar maupun sosial
• Tidak adanya ketentuan hukum yang mengikat
• Tujuan jangka pendek vs jangka panjang
4 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Upaya Strategis
Debottlenecking:• Kebijakan dan peraturan yang menjadi penghalang• Keberpihakan pada masyarakat• Kontrak-kontrak lama yang menjadi penghambat
Creating enabling condition:• Kebijakan yang mendukung sisi legal, teknis, dan finansial• Peningkatan kapasitas: masyarakat, pendamping,
pemerintah, lembaga terkait• Pendampingan masyarakat• Dukungan pasar
LITBANG AF ke depan
• Berorientasi pada hasil langsung dan bermanfaat
• Menjawab masalah: a) kemiskinan, b) ketahananpangan, air dan energi, c) ketidak adilan akses keSDA, d) pemulihan lingkungan dan SDA, e) mitigasidan adaptasi perubahan iklim
• Bersifat action research: a) partisipatory dantransparan, b) bersifat terapan, c) learning process
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 5
Perubahan Paradigma PengelolaanSumber Daya Alam
Hutan Produksi:• Optimalisasi penggunaan lahan: kendala biofisik, sosial
dan pasar• Hutan sebagai production supporting system• Multi-actors dan bundle of rights (tenures)
Lahan Pertanian:• Bukan maksimalisasi tapi optimalisasi produk secara
lestari• Market and profit oriented
PENUTUP
Indonesia saat ini (Dino Pati Jalal, 2013) : major democracy,
emerging economy,
pivotal state,
next Asian Giant
environmental power
Agroforestry akan menyumbang pada prestasi ini
6 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Agroforestry as buffer to livelihoods in a green economy: reflections from
20 years ICRAF Indonesia
19
78
-20
13
: 35
ye
ar
Meine van Noordwijk – with thanks to Sonya Dewi, Beria Leimona, Betha Lusiana, Atiek Widayati, Ujjwal Pradhan dll
21 May 2013 -- Malang Seminar Nasional Agroforestri
Agroforestry as buffer to livelihoods in a green economy: reflections from
20 years ICRAF Indonesia
• 100 // 35 // 20 year celebrations
• AF = Farmers + Trees + Forests
What happened to Indonesia’s forests and AF?
• A global research agenda on ecological intensi-fication, agroforestry & buffer are key elements
• Landscapes as institutional interface
• Climate change increases need for buffering
• How to green the Indonesian economy?
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 7
Beekman, 1st
Director in 1913
Ten Oever, 1931
Inspector Forests
1931 Governor-General
Opens Gn Batu office
Iman Hadi Daryanto
http://scholar.google.com/citations?
user=fC9LOngAAAAJ&hl=en
http://www.worldagroforestry.or
g/downloads/publications/PDFs
/B01036.PDF
http://w
ww
.worldagro
f
ore
str
y.org
/dow
nlo
ad
s/p
ublic
atio
ns/P
DF
s/
B14409.P
DF
http://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=
en&user=KfXtvFUAAAAJ
8 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Analysis based on 317 publications
with >50 citations each per 1/5/2013
2001 Dennis farewell Now
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 9
Time
Enough on the celebrations,what happened to Indonesia’s
forests, trees and agroforestry?
Nu
mb
er
of
fore
str
y g
rad
ua
tes
Fo
rest co
ve
r In
do
ne
sia
Time
# o
f a
gro
fore
str
y g
rad
ua
tes
Ag
rofo
rests
in
In
do
ne
sia
Ag
rofo
restr
y in
In
do
ne
sia
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 11
Agricultural “trees
outside forest” in
Indonesia, accor-
ding to FAOSTAT:
at least 9.4 + 5 Mha
Oilpalm fruit 5.000Coconuts 2.950Natural rubber 2.898Cocoa beans 0.990Coffee 0.977Cloves 0.312Cashewnuts, with shell 0.308Fruit,tropical 0.207Mangoes,mangosteens, guavas 0.185Kapok Fruit 0.133Arecanuts 0.126Tea 0.107Cinnamon(canella) 0.081Nutmeg, mace and cardamoms 0.075Oranges 0.064Avocados 0.020
14.432
Remote sensing + ground truthing information about quantity, quality, spatial
pattern and temporal dynamics of tree cover across landscape positions
Land use plans and
institutional status ~
laws & policy
Community
organizations, socio-
economic status
12 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Which trees are part of “forest”, which ones part of the “agroforest”, or “agriculture”?
Log
Large increase in human population
density + average wellfare
Almost same relationship between
log(PopDens) and forest cover
Substantial loss of
forest cover
Remarkable decrease
in forest footprint
Environmental impact =
Human population density *
Wellfare
Footprint/unit wellfareSustainable development requires
footprint to decrease faster than
growth in population and wellfare
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 13
1. Undisturbed natural forest 2. Undisturbed + sust. logged natural forest 3. Closed canopy undisturbed + logged forest 4A. as 3 + agroforest 4B. as 3 + timber plantations 4C. as 3 + agroforest + timber plant’s + estate crops 4D as 4C + shrub
Rainforest foundation
Conservation agency
Modis data
Ministry of Forestry
Forest ecologist
UNFCCC definition
Stakeholder:
19
Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7 tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)
“Forest transition” as spatial pattern.
‘chronosequence’?
14 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Agroforestry as buffer to livelihoods in a green economy: reflections from
20 years ICRAF Indonesia
• 100 // 35 // 20 year celebrations
• AF = Farmers + Trees + Forests
What happened to Indonesia’s forests and AF?
• A global research agenda on ecological intensi-fication, agroforestry & buffer are key elements
• Landscapes as institutional interface
• Climate change increases need for buffering
• How to green the Indonesian economy?
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 15
Old-growth
Tree cover transitions as uni-fying concept for livelihoods, landscape and governance aspects
http://www.cifor.org/es/crp6/research-portfolio.html
Forest and tree cover transitions: a unifying concept across CRP6
Temporal pattern, X-
axis
Spatial pattern, X-axis
Institutional challenge at turning point
X-linkage of actions in landscape
Core
Choice of Y-axis
1
2 3 4 5
6
16 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Agroforestry as buffer to livelihoods in a green economy: reflections from
20 years ICRAF Indonesia
• 100 // 35 // 20 year celebrations
• AF = Farmers + Trees + Forests
What happened to Indonesia’s forests and AF?
• A global research agenda on ecological intensi-fication, agroforestry & buffer are key elements
• Landscapes as institutional interface
• Climate change increases need for buffering
• How to green the Indonesian economy?
Geological history, pat-terns & current activity
Global climate systems
based on oceans, land
& atmosphere
Flora and fauna and its biogeography
Land forms,vegetation,ecosystems,hydrology
A.Initial human land use
B.Late-stage hu-man land use
Land use is predictable from ‘reading the landscape’
Land use dominates over original terrain features
C. The tran-
sition is
predictable
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 17
Landscape Space
People
Land Use Systems
Institutions
Functions, services
GeologyLand forms
Climate
VegetationFlora&fauna
Hydrology
Value chains Landscape -
Planning, Incentives
mu
ltif
un
ctio
na
lity
Ten
ure
Agroforestry as buffer to livelihoods in a green economy: reflections from
20 years ICRAF Indonesia
• 100 // 35 // 20 year celebrations
• AF = Farmers + Trees + Forests
What happened to Indonesia’s forests and AF?
• A global research agenda on ecological intensi-fication, agroforestry & buffer are key elements
• Landscapes as institutional interface
• Climate change increases need for buffering
• How to green the Indonesian economy?
18 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
9 May 2013 was the first whole day above 400
ppm at Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii)
Over the last 800,000 years, CO2 has
ranged from roughly 180 ppm to 280 ppm
Second 40 ppm
took 30 years
Third 40 ppm
took 20
years
1992 UNFCCC agreement to slow
down emissions
First 40 ppm increase during first 10,000 years
of agriculture and associated deforestation +
first 100 years of industrial revolution
Annual amplitude
due to N. hemisphe-
re summer vegeta-
tion growth & winter
decomposition +
heating did not
change
Emission
„rights‟, but
ΣLama < Nama
ΣNama < Gama
Polluter pay
Principle
Doha COP
Adapta-tion
Mitiga-tion
Reducing GHG emissions, enhancing GHG sink strengthsLong term focus on avoiding future impactsGlobal-scale cross-sectoral effort needed for effectiveness, withLocal/(sub)national nesting and collaboration
Reducing vulnerability, enhancing adaptive capacityStart with focus on current variabilityLocal-scale cross-sectoral effort needed for effectiveness, with(Sub)National/global collaboration
C-trade does not redu-
ce global emissions
Mitig-adap-tation
Miti-gation
Adap-tation
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 19
Macro climate variation & change
Meso-climate .
Micro-climate .
CropsTreesLivestock
Fieldlevel in-
teractions
CropsTreesLivestock
Fieldlevel in-
teractions
Landscapemosaicinteractions
Waterbalance
Carbonbalance
Nitrogenbalance
Biophysical - environmental
Pest & diseaserisk & buffer
Fish & forest products
Temperature, Humidity, Wind speed at level of crop, livestock
Regional & landscape level tree cover
pre
cip
itat
ion
Biodi-versity
Harvested products
Farm management:Spatially explicit land useLabourKnowledgeInputs
Household assets:Land access & rightsLabourKnowledgeCapital/credit
Social networks:Land access & rightsLabourKnowledgeCapital/credit
Local con-sumption
Markets
Food & energysecurity
Exogenous econo-mic risks & endo-geous buffers
Demographic &social change // LU policies
Non-food expenditure & asset building
Socio-economic conditions
Harvested products
Policy levers
Remit-tances
Aid
Food exchange
Food systems
Infr
astr
uct
ure
&
mar
ket
acce
ss
Knowledge sharing & exchange
20 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Macro climate variation & change
Meso-climate .
Micro-climate .
CropsTreesLivestock
Fieldlevel in-
teractions
CropsTreesLivestock
Fieldlevel in-
teractions
Landscapemosaicinteractions
Waterbalance
Carbonbalance
Nitrogenbalance
Biophysical - environmental
Pest & diseaserisk & buffer
Farm management:Spatially explicit land useLabourKnowledgeInputs
Household assets:Land access & rightsLabourKnowledgeCapital/credit
Social networks:Land access & rightsLabourKnowledgeCapital/credit
Local con-sumption
Markets
Food & energysecurity
Exogenous econo-mic risks & endo-geous buffers
Demographic &social change // LU policies
Non-food expenditure & asset building
Socio-economic conditions
Harvested products
Fish & forest products
Policy levers
Remit-tances
Aid
Food exchange
Temperature, Humidity, Wind speed at level of crop, livestock
Food systems
Infr
astr
uct
ure
&
mar
ket
acce
ss
Knowledge sharing & exchange
Regional & landscape level tree cover
pre
cip
itat
ion
Biodi-versity
Land with diverse tree cover and carbon-rich soil
Adaptive mana-gement capacity of empowered local
communities
Enhanced carbon sinks, avoided
losses
Sustainable fo-rest management
Avoidance of soil C loss (peat & mineral soils)
Increased A & F productivity
(Agro)biodiversity conservation
Agroforestry
Afforestation, reforestation
Soil and waterconservation
Ecosystem service value realization
Decentralization of NRM decisions
Centralization of NRM decisions
Increased efficiency of Ag input use
Rules need to evolve from
„additionality’ tests on separate
funding streams via
‘complementarity‟
to full „synergy‟
Mitiga-daptation
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013 21
Agroforestry as buffer to livelihoods in a green economy: reflections from
20 years ICRAF Indonesia
• 100 // 35 // 20 year celebrations
• AF = Farmers + Trees + Forests
What happened to Indonesia’s forests and AF?
• A global research agenda on ecological intensi-fication, agroforestry & buffer are key elements
• Landscapes as institutional interface
• Climate change increases need for buffering
• How to green the Indonesian economy?
Land use zoning, use and property rights
Human popula-tion & Δ
Mar-ket access, tax,subs.
Management& behavioural
choices of land users
Food, fibre, income Harvestable products
Provisioning services
Regulating, supporting & cultural services
Land use practices in a landscape
context
Human & environmental health&well-being
Commodity-product- ser-vice value chains, x-border trade
Waterflows (quality,quantity, regularity)
Macro-&me-so climateBiodiversity
Happiness monitoring
Economic development planning
Environmental & wellfare targeted planning
GDP, national econo-mic growth or decline
Natural ca-pital ac-counting
Sust
ain
ab
le d
evel
op
men
t m
etri
cs
AgTech
New green economy, integrated rural-urban development coalitions…
22 Prosiding Seminar Nasional Agroforestri 2013
Conclusions & way forward
• We need good empirical evidence of tree cover transitions (quantity, quality, pattern) and their Ecosystem Service (ES) consequences
• We need a smooth institutional landscape inter-face between Forests and People ~ ES evidence
• Climate change uncertainty + globalizationmeans an increased need for buffering
• AF can provide much of the buffering needed
• Green Growth (7/42) is feasible, but requires paradigm shift in ambitions
Lesser short-nosed fruit bat,
Cynopterus cf brachyotis
Selamat ulang tahun FORDA dan ICRAF, ayo, tanam
pohon duren…