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NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL

AGENCY

SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION (SRP)

20132013

NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 12013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION

I congratulate the Federal Ministry of Aviation and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), on the timely completion and presentation of the 2013 Season Rainfall Prediction (SRP). I am also pleased that the presentation of this year's SRP will feature a technical conference, which includes an inter-ministerial dialogue, on the application of meteorological information for disaster risk reduction. This is an appropriate theme at this time when climate change and variability constitute serious threat to global socio-economic development.

It is a known fact that all over the world the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, and the associated negative impacts on lives and property, are increasing. Our Country, Nigeria is not immune to these phenomena. In 2012 we experienced one of the most devastating floods in the history of this Country. It affected about twenty-seven States of the Federation, resulting in loss of hundreds of lives, displacement of millions of people from their homes and extensive damage to infrastructure. Government responded to the emergency situation with several palliative measures that reduced the impacts of the flooding.

Since weather is a natural phenomenon that is beyond human control, it is necessary to evolve adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the risks and impact of its extremes. Early warning through timely and accurate weather information is an effective strategy for disaster risk reduction. It is fundamental to emergency preparedness against weather related disasters. In recognition of this fact, the Federal Government has continued to strengthen the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) to perform its statutory function as the designated weather service provider for Nigeria. The NIMET Establishment Act, 2003 charges the Agency with the responsibility of observing weather, making forecasts, providing weather and climate information for all sectors of the economy, and advising Government on all aspects of meteorology.

As parts of the Transformation Agenda, the Federal Government has equipped NIMET with state-of-the-art instruments and infrastructure for measuring all weather variables. Among these infrastructure are, the National Weather & Climate Research Centre, Abuja; over 50 surface weather observatories equipped with conventional instruments for hourly collection of weather data from all over Nigeria; 5 upper air stations for measuring weather

conditions at various heights (up to several kilometres) in the atmosphere; satellite image receivers for observing weather from space; Doppler weather radars for real-time tracking hazardous weather; Low-level Windshear Alerts Systems at our airports for detecting hazardous weather for aircraft during takeoff and landing; air quality and ozone monitoring equipment, etc. The Agency also has an archive of historical climate data of Nigeria collected over a period of nearly 100 years. These weather and environmental monitoring infrastructure and long-term climate database do not exist anywhere else in Nigeria. Government has therefore positioned NIMET to meet all the weather and climate information need of every socio-economic sector as stipulated in the NIMET Establishment Act. MDAs should therefore take advantage of these resources through NIMET to meet their weather and climate services needs.

I commend NIMET for effectively utilizing the facilities and living up to its statutory responsibility of issuing regular weather forecasts and climate information that are useful to aviation, agriculture, defence, environment, water resources, health, power generation and distribution, construction industry, oil and gas exploration, communication, academic research, etc. Rainfall is a critical factor in these key areas of the economy. The Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) produced annually by NIMET and published early in the year contains information on expected rainfall pattern. Such information is important for policy formulation and decision making in weather-sensitive activities. I therefore endorse it for use by all MDAs, especially those whose activities are affected by rainfall.

Finally, it is my expectation that the inter-ministerial dialogue on weather and climate challenges in the country will be a regular event. The dialogue should also evolve a National Framework for Climate Services in Nigeria. Such a Framework is necessary for the delivery of science-based climate services to Nigerians, especially the vulnerable rural communities, to equip them with scientific information for coping with contemporary challenges of climate change, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, GCFRPresident and Commander in Chief of the Armed ForcesFederal Republic of Nigeria.

MESSAGE from the PRESIDENT AND COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF,

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA,

Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, GCFR


Contents MR PRESIDENT 1

FOREWORD 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

1.0 REVIEW OF 2012 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION 91.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS 91.2 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS 131.3 STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX 15

2.0 2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION 162.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTION FOR JAN-APRIL 162.2 RAINFALL PREDICTION IN 2013 18

2.2.1 ONSET OF RAINY SEASON 182.2.2 CESSATION OF RAINY SEASON 192.2.3 LENGTH OF RAINY SEASON 192.2.4 ANNUAL RAINFALL AMOUNT 202.2.5 COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PREDICTED RAINFALL 20

3.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS 223.1 AVIATION 223.2 ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT 223.3 AGRICULTURE 23

3.3.1 CROPS 233.3.2 LIVESTOCK 23

3.4 PERISHABLE CARGO 243.5 COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR 243.6 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR 253.7 DISASTER MANAGEMENT 253.8 HEALTH 26

4.0 APPENDICES 27


The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events such as floods, severe drought, heat waves, ocean surges, have been increasing in recent years all over the world. This trend has been attributed to Global Warming and Climate Change. Nigeria has been experiencing this global trend. In the northern parts of the country, drought and desertification have been encroaching on arable land, while soil erosion and landslide in the south destroy farmlands, houses, roads and other infrastructure. Also, communities in the coastal and riverine areas suffer from the menace of recurrent coastal inundation and soil water intrusion, resulting in environmental degradation and destruction of the ecosystem. Most parts of Nigeria, particularly those along river banks and coastal areas are often devastated by flooding.

Extreme weather and climate events are often accompanied by loss of lives and property, damage to critical infrastructure, disruption of socio-economic activities, and in some cases, displacement of persons in the affected areas.

A significant proportion of the Nigerian population is therefore vulnerable to the hazards of extreme weather and climate phenomena. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the lack of scientific knowledge and information about climate change and its consequences. This underscores the need for provision of weather and climate information. The early dissemination of such information to the public is an effective strategy for disaster risk reduction.

In response to this need, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) produces the

In 2012 Nigeria experienced an unprecedented flood that affected about twenty-seven States of the Federation, killed over three hundred persons and displaced about two million people from their homes.

Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP)

In Nigeria, rainfall has profound impact on agriculture, air and land transportation, hydro-electric power generation, construction, water resources, etc.

NIMET's Seasonal Rainfall Prediction

and presents it to the public annually. The SRP provides information on the expected rainfall pattern for the year. It includes onset and cessation dates, length of rainy season as well as rainfall amounts for over 100 locations in Nigeria. Temperature forecasts for the months of January, February, March and April are also included in the SRP.

Normal rainfall is beneficial for agriculture and other economic activities. However, when it is excessive or above normal, it may result to flooding and the associated negative impacts. The timely information in

is therefore vital for planning and decision making in these key sectors of the economy.

The information contained in the 2013 SRP, if judiciously employed, will no doubt contribute towards enhanced performance in various sectors and also reduce the nation's vulnerability to weather-related natural hazards. I therefore strongly recommend it to all planners and decision-makers in the various sectors of the economy, as well as the general public.

Princess Stella Adaeze Oduah, OONHonourable Minister of AviationJanuary 2013

FOREWORD

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

he Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) has the mandate to monitor weather and Tclimate in Nigeria and provide meteorological

information for sustainable development and safety of life and property in the country. In response to this mandate therefore, the Agency produces the rainfall prediction annually and presents it as the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) in the first quarter of every year. In keeping with this practice, NIMET has produced the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction for 2013.

The NIMET SRP provides essential weather advisories and early warnings to planners, decision-makers and operators in the various rainfall-sensitive socio-economic sectors, such as air, land and marine transportation agriculture, water resources, power, construction, health, etc. NIMET presents the SRP early in the year, so as to create good lead-time for adequate preparation against risks and hazards associated with weather and climate extreme. It is expected that the early presentation will enable decision-makers and operators in the various sectors,

to take advantage of the information in the SRP to optimize productive activities in their respective operations.

The Prediction model is based on the strong tele-connection between El Nino/Southern Oscillations (ENSO), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and rain-bearing weather systems over Nigeria. (ENSO is a recurrent abnormal shift in winds and Ocean currents centered in the south Pacific region that produces extreme weather and climate conditions in many parts of the world). The model also incorporates phenological and soil information as well as historical daily weather data from 39-meteorological stations spatially distributed over Nigeria for 22 ENSO - Neutral years in the calculation of onset, cessation and length of rainy season for the different areas in the country.

The 2013 SRP is based on the Neutral Phase of the ENSO phenomenon. Chances are high that the neutral phase will continue up to 2013 peak rainy season. The other ENSO phases, that is, La-Nina and


...the predicted rainfall amount for the northwest areas of Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara and environs is likely to be above normal in comparison to 2012. Relevant authories are advised to use NIMET's updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impact.

NIMET presents the Seosonal Rainfall Prediction early in the year, so as to create good lead-time for adequate preparation against risks and hazards associated with weather and climate extremes

El-Nino all have less likelihood of occurring during this year's rainy season. The Neutral Phase is usually associated with normal weather and climate conditions in many parts of the country, particularly in the north. NIMET will continue to monitor closely the evolutions of the ENSO phenomenon as the year progresses and will review the predictions as changes make these necessary.

There is a 90 percent probability that this neutral phase condition will persist through February - March 2013 period, decreasing to 60 percent through April - June 2013 and further to 53 percent by July-September 2013. Based on this scenario, the 2013 rainfall in Nigeria is likely to be under the influence of Neutral phase till September 2013.

The predictions presented in this publication include:

(i) Onset and cessation dates;

(ii) Length of the rainy season;

(iii) Annual amount of rainfall;

(iv) Expected changes in the predictions of

these conditions; and

(v) Socio-economic implications of the

predictions.

The 2013 SRP includes the evaluation of the 2012 predictions. The evaluation shows that the observed temperature and rainfall pattern in most parts of the country were in reasonable agreement with the predictions.

In 2013 most parts of the country are expected to experience a normal harmattan and hot season during January – April period. The nights (minimum) and days (maximum) temperatures are expected to be generally normal.

Rainfall onset dates will vary between first week of

March (in the southernmost part of the country) and late June in the far northern parts. Most parts of the country are expected to have normal onset with the exception of parts of Niger state, Cross River, Anambra, Delta, and the Southwest. These areas are predicted to have early onset by about one (1) week. The chances of late onset of rains are low.

The rainy season is predicted to end between mid October in the North and mid-December in the south. The cessation period is expected to be normal in many parts of the country except for parts of Ondo, Delta and Cross River states where an early cessation is expected. However, parts of the Southwest are likely to experience late cessation.

In 2013, the length of rainy season is predicted to be normal in most parts of the North and South. However, longer than normal length of the season is likely for most of the central parts of the country and over parts of Yobe, northern Cross River and parts of the southwestern States.

Annual rainfall amount is predicted to be normal over most areas of the country with the exception of parts of Ogun State where rainfall amount is expected to be below normal; and Oyo and Kebbi States where it is likely to be above normal. In the

oextreme North (Lat. 12 – 14 N) of the country, rainfall amount is expected to range from 400 to 1000mm, while in the South, it is expected to be between 1500 and 3000mm.

The expected rainfall and temperature patterns over the country in 2013 have implications for various sectors of the economy. As a case in point, the predicted rainfall amount for the northwest areas of Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara and environs is likely to be above normal in comparison to 2012. Relevant authorities are advised to use NIMET's updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impact.


In 2013, the length of rainy season is predicted to be normal in most parts of the North and South. However, longer than normal length of the season is likely for most of the central parts of the country and over parts of Yobe, northern Cross River and parts of the southwestern States.

NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 6

According to the prediction, the air transport sector may not experience significant negative impact during the harmattan season of 2013. However, minor delays in flights due to reduced horizontal visibility in dust haze in January and February may occur at some airports in the country. NIMET closely monitors visibility conditions and provides advisories during this season. Airline operators are therefore advised to regularly obtain

AVIATION

meteorological reports regularly in compliance with International Civil Aviation- Standard and Recommended Practices (ICAO-SARP).

pilots are advised to exercise great caution and heed the weather advisories provided by NIMET.

Similarly, during the onset and cessation periods of the rainy season when thunderstorms are prevalent and severe with associated turbulence,

Reduced visibility in dust haze and fog as described above constitute hazards in the road transport sector. Operators in this sector are therefore to adhere to speed limits and also use their fog lights when necessary. During the rainy season, the roads become slippery, and

Furthermore, high intensity rainfall may result in flooding and consequently lead

motorists are advised to take advantage of the advisories issued during such times for their safety.

to wash-out.

Even when the rainfall amount is normal, high intensity rainfall giving rise to flash floods may occur. The relevant authorities are therefore advised to maintain close watch particularly over vulnerable sections of roads and rail lines and put in place the necessary emergency repair plans timely.

ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT

2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT IN SUMMARY


The predicted normal rainfall over most parts of the country is expected to favour crop and livestock production. The normal – to – early onset of the rains, normal season end, and normal – to – longer length of growing season with adequate rainfall amount is expected to support high production of agricultural products including cereals and root crops in the country. In order to optimize the benefits of the predicted rainfall patterns, the Ministries of Agriculture and associated agencies as well as farmers are advised to take advantage of the information in the SRP as well as agrometeorological products and services provided by NIMET.

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY

The Federal Ministry of Aviation is implementing the construction of Perishable Cargo terminals across the country as part of the Transformation Agenda. The essence of this project

The Perishable Cargo initiative will create a farm-to-supermarket value chain, with a spin-off benefit of wealth creation for rural farmers and stemming of rural-to-urban population migration. Crop and animal production are very sensitive to weather and climate conditions. Cultivation, harvesting, processing, packaging, transportation to cargo airports and storage of perishable cargo for export are all affected by weather and climate conditions

is to unlock the largely untapped agricultural potentials of most parts of Nigeria to put the country on the World map of the multi-billion naira agricultural produce export business from Africa.



FEDERAL MINISTRY OF AVIATION: PERISHABLE CARGO PROJECT


HEALTH

Temperatures peak gradually from February in the coastal areas to April in the north. In 2013, peak day temperature values are expected to remain high for comfort, and the excessive heat accompanying such high values may affect the people with heat-induced health challenges such as cerebrospinal meningitis, heatstroke, measles, etc. Temperature pattern and rainfall (moisture) conditions are likely to favour fast

breeding of mosquitoes, flies and other disease vectors. This may result in high prevalence of malaria, cholera, dengue fever, etc. Health workers are therefore advised to provide mosquito-treated nets, conduct vaccination activities, encourage people to clear their environment in order to reduce the incidence of these diseases.

The predicted rainfall over the central and southern parts of the country will be enough to support water availability for industrial and domestic use across the country. The rainfall amounts will also be sufficient to support stream flow and marine transport, particularly in the coastal areas. Furthermore, predicted rainfall patterns will be sufficient for water storage to be used for irrigation, livestock management and other uses. Although normal rainfall is predicted for most parts of the country, there is a likelihood of flash floods resulting from high intensity rainfall at the onset and cessation periods of the rainy season. In addition, the usual flooding associated with the peak of monsoon

period (July-September) may occur when the soil would have been saturated, coupled with poor environmental habits. Low-lying areas and flood plains of the central, western and eastern parts of the country are most susceptible. The general public is therefore advised to imbibe good environment practices which include avoiding the dumping of refuse in drainages, and the erection of structures in floodplains. Dam managers and other stakeholders are also advised to obtain NIMET's Drought and Flood Monitoring Bulletins which provide regular updates on soil moisture conditions and prospects of flooding or dry spells conditions across the country.

WATER MANAGEMENT




Observed night and day temperatures

Fig.1c: Deviation of observed night temperature from long term averages

Fig.1d: Deviation of observed day temperature from long term averages

Fig.1a: Deviation of predicted nighttemperature from long term averages

Fig.1b: Deviation of predicted daytemperature from long term averages

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1.0 REVIEW OF THE 2012 “SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION”

In 2012, the day and night temperatures for January to April were predicted along with the rainfall patterns for the entire season. These are now reviewed:

1.1.1 January 2012

Predicted night and day temperatures

1.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS IN 2012

The predicted day and night temperatures were slightly colder than the Observed day and night temperatures. In addition, the observed night temperatures were warmer than predicted over parts of Adamawa and Taraba States.






1.1.2 February 2012



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REVIEW OF THE 2012 “SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION”

Both night and day observed temperatures were higher than the predicted, particularly in the North of the country. Day-time observations agreed better with the predictions in the South than in the North






1.1.3 March 2012



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The observed night temperatures in the North were in agreement with the predictions. However, the daytime temperatures were warmer than predicted in many parts of the South and Central States but colder than predicted for the far northern areas.







1.1.4 April 2012



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The observed night temperatures were warmer than the predicted in many parts of the North. In the remaining parts, the predicted was in good agreement with the observed. The observed day time temperatures were warmer in the North than predicted.




1.2.2 2012 Cessation Dates in 2012

Fig.5b: Deviation of observed 2012 cessation dates from predicted

1.2.1 Onset Dates in 2012

1.2 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS IN 2012

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In 2012, NIMET predicted normal onset of rains in many parts of the country. However, the rains were earlier in the Northeast and parts of the South.

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For end of season, a normal condition was predicted generally for most parts of the country. However, a later-than-normal end of season was also predicted later into the season when an update was issued around July 2012. These predictions were in agreement with observed end of rainy season

Fig.5a: Deviation of observed 2012 onset dates from predicted




In 2012, there was a fair agreement between the observed and the predicted length of rainy season. However, the observed was higher than the predicted over Borno, Kano, Plateau, Adamawa and Taraba States in the North and parts of the Southern States.

Normal – to – above normal rainfall amount was predicted for 2012. In the update released in early July 2012, it was clearly predicted that excessive rainfall and flooding were very likely to occur during July, August and September 2012 in many parts of the country as was observed.

1.2.3 Length of the Rainy Season in 2012

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Fig.5c: Deviation of the predicted from the observed 2012 length of rainy season

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50

60

La

tit

ud

e(N

)

Longitude (E)

No

rma

lB

elo

wN

orm

al

Ab

ov

eN

orm

al

(Percentage)Legend

1.2.4 Seasonal Rainfall Amount in 2012

Fig.5d: Deviation of the predicted from theobserved 2012 seasonal rainfall amount


SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS IN 2012

In June 2012, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) showed wet and extremely wet conditions in areas coloured green and blue respectively. This provided enough lead time to issue update for the peak of the rainy season (July, August and September). It also enabled NIMET to issue early warning of the 2012 flooding that happened at the peak of the rainy season.

Fig. 5e: 3-, 6- and 12-month Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI)


1.3 STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS IN 2012

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

BAU

BNI

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJBIKJ

IKO

ILR

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

LRF

MAI

MKD

MNA

NGU

OSH

OWE

PHC

POT

SOK

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-4

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

4

0 220 440 660 880

EXTREME

SEVERE

MODERATE

MILD

NORMAL

MILD

MODERATE

SEVERE

EXTREMEW

ET

NE

SS

DR

YN

ES

S

APRIL - JUNE, 2012

3-months SPI

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

BAU

BNI

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJBIKJ

IKO

ILR

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

LRF

MAI

MKD

MNA

NGU

OSH

OWE

PHC

POT

SOK

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-4

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

4

0 220 440 660 880

EXTREME

SEVERE

MODERATE

MILD

NORMAL

MILD

MODERATE

SEVERE

EXTREME

WE

TN

ES

SD

RY

NE

SS

JANUARY - JUNE, 2012

6-months SPI

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

BAU

BNI

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJBIKJ

IKO

ILR

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

LRF

MAI

MKD

MNA

NGU

OSH

OWE

PHC

POT

SOK

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-4

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

4

EXTREME

SEVERE

MODERATE

MILD

NORMAL

MILD

MODERATE

SEVERE

EXTREME

WE

TN

ES

SD

RY

NE

SS

0 220 440 660 880

JULY, 2011 - JUNE, 2012

12-months SPI


2.0 2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION2.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY – APRIL The January – April night and day temperature predictions provide weather information on the expectedharmattan and the hot seasons across the country. This particular period has been considered due to the strong temperature variations and the associated health implications.

2.1.1 JANUARY 2013Temperature predictions for night and day in January 2013 are as shown in figure 6a and figure 6b respectively.

oWithin a tolerance of ±0.5 C from long term averages, However, parts of Ogun state are predicted to be slightly warmer

during the night.

most places are expected to remain in normal harmattan conditions during January.

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-1

-0.5

0.5

Legend

Wa

rme

rC

old

er

No

rmal

Longitude (E)

Lati

tud

e(N

)

Fig 6a: Deviation of January night temperature From long term averages

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-1

-0.5

0.5

Legend

Warm

er

Co

lder

No

rmal

Longitude (E)

Lati

tud

e(N

)

2.1.2 FEBRUARY 2013Figure 7 below shows that most areas in the country are predicted to have normal harmattan conditions at night and hot days in windy, hazy and hot weather during the day.

Fig 7a: Deviation of February night temperature From long term averages

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-1

-0.5

0.5

Legend

Warm

er

Co

lder

No

rmal

Longitude (E)

Lati

tud

e(N

)

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-1

-0.5

0.5

Legend

Wa

rme

rC

old

er

No

rma

l

Longitude (E)

Lati

tud

e(N

)

Fig.7b: Deviation of February day temperaturefrom long term averages

Fig.6b: Deviation of January day temperature from long term averages



2.1.3 MARCH 2013In the night, parts of Borno state and environs are expected to be warmer; but colder during the day (figure 8). Elsewhere, normal March conditions will prevail. The impact of the harmattan is predicted to reduce considerably with the arrival of early rains in the South.

Fig 9a: Deviation of April night temperatureFrom long term averages

Fig.9b: Deviation of April day temperaturefrom long term averages

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-1

-0.5

0.5

Longitude (E)

La

titu

de

(N)

Cold

er

No

rma

lW

arm

er

Fig 8a: Deviation of March night temperatureFrom long term averages

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

La

titu

de(N

)Longitude (E)

Fig.8b: Deviation of March day temperaturefrom long term averages

2.1.4 APRIL 2013The daytime temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the North, with associated heat and discomfort, while in the South, the effect of the onset of the rains will reduce the temperatures. This is represented in figure 9 below.

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

-1

-0.5

0.5

Cold

er

No

rmal

Warm

er

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

-1

-0.5

0.5

Cold

er

No

rmal

Warm

er


2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION


2.2 RAINFALL PREDICTION IN 2013

The prediction of rainfall pattern each year finds extensive uses in the key sectors of the economy that are known to be rainfall-sensitive. These include agriculture, water management, environment, health, and a host of other sectors.

The rainfall predictions consist of the following:

· Onset dates of rainy season

· Cessation dates of rainy season

· Length of the season

· Annual amount of rainfall.

2.2.1 ONSET OF THE RAINY SEASONOnset date calculations were based on a daily analysis of the soil water balance obtained by using appropriate crop model which quantifies when the available water content of the root zone at the beginning of the cropping season reaches 50%.

In 2013, rainfall onset in Nigeria is expected between late February in the Southernmost parts of the country, third week of April in the Central parts and first week of June in the extreme North as shown in Figure 10a.

(Fig.10b. )

Most parts of the country are expected to have normal onset with the exception of locations in Niger, Anambra, Delta, Northern Cross River, parts of Ogun and Ondo States. These are predicted to have early onset

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

20-Feb

2-Mar

1-Apr

1-May

1-Jun

12-Mar

22-Mar

11-Apr

21-Apr

11-May

21-May

11-Jun

21-Jun

Legend(dates)

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

Fig.10a: Predicted 2013 onset dates

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-6

-5

-4

-3

3

Longitude (E)

La

titu

de

(N)

No

rm

al

Ea

rl

y

Legend(days)

La

te

10b: Deviation of predicted 2013 onset dates from long term averages



The information contained in the 2013 SRP, if judiciously employed, will no doubt contribute towards enhanced performance in various sectors and also reduce the nation's vulnerability to weather-related natural hazards.


Fig.11a: Predicted 2013 cessation dates Fig.11b: Deviation of predicted 2013 cessation dates from long term averages

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

Lati

tud

e(N

)

Longitude (E)

Dec-25

Nov-25

Oct-26

Dec-15

Dec-5

Nov-15

Nov-5

Oct-16

Oct-6

Legend

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-6

-5

-4

-3

3

4

5

Lati

tud

e(N

)

Longitude (E)

Legend

Late

No

rmal

Earl

y

2.2.3 LENGTH OF RAINY SEASONThis is defined as the difference between the onset and the cessation dates. The length of rainy season for 2013 is predicted to be between 110 days in the extreme North and 300 days in the southernmost parts, as shown in figure 7a.

(fig7b). However, a shorter length of season is predicted for Calabar and environs.

A normal length of growing season is predicted in most parts of the North and South while longer than normal length of season is likely for most of the central parts of the country and over parts of Nguru, Ikom and environs as well as parts of the Southwest

Fig.12b: Deviation of predicted 2013 length of rainy season from long term means

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

110

140

170

200

230

260

300

Legend (Days)

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-5

-3

3

5

7

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

No

rma

lS

ho

rte

rL

en

gth

Lo

ng

er

Le

ng

th

LegendDays

Fig.12a: Predicted 2013 length of rainy



2.2.2 CESSATION OF RAINY SEASON Rainfall cessation period is crucial in Nigeria since it affects agriculture and other rainfall-sensitive sectors of the economy.

. In 2013, the cessation period is predicted to be between 8 October and 26 December over the country (Fig.11a).

Cessation date was calculated based on the daily analysis of the soil water balance using appropriate crop model, which is determined when the available water content at the root zone have dropped to 5%

The cessation dates of season are expected to be normal for many places in of the country except parts of Ondo, Delta and Cross River States. The rainy season is expected to end earlier in these locations when compared with long term normal (Fig.11b). It is also predicted to end later in parts of the Southwest.


2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

400

1000

1500

2000

3000

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

Legendmm

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-6

-4

4

6

8

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

Bel

owN

orm

alN

orm

al

Ab

ov

eN

orm

al

Legend (%)

Fig.13a: Predicted 2013 annual rainfall Fig.13b: Deviation of predicted 2013 annual rainfall from long term means

The predicted rainfall amount for the northwest areas of Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara and environs is likely to be above normal in comparison to 2012. Relevant authories are advised to use NIMET's updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impact.

2.2.5 COMPARISON OF 2012 (ACTUAL) and 2013 (PREDICTED) RAINFALL

Fig.14a: Difference between 2012 observedrainfall and 2013 predicted rainfall

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-2500

-1000

-500

-250

-50

50

250

500

1000

2500

2013 FCST RR - 2012 ObsRR

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

Normal

FC

ST

isM

ore

than

Ob

serv

ed

FC

ST

isL

ess

than

Ob

serv

ed

Legendmm

2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OND

ONI

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

-5

5

10

20

30

FC

ST

Mo

reth

an

20

12

Ra

in

Normal

FC

ST

Le

ss

tha

n2

01

2R

ain

La

titu

de

(N)

Longitude (E)

Legend%

FCST 2013 - OBS 2012 (%)

Fig,14b: Percentage difference between 2012observed rainfall and 2013 predicted rainfall.



2.2.4 ANNUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTFigure 13a shows the predicted variation in the amount of annual rainfall in 2013. The annual rainfall is expected to vary generally from 400 – 3000mm over the country, with the highest amount of between 2000 – 3000mm expected over the southernmost areas. Many parts of the central states are likely to have annual rainfall of between 1000 – 1500mm, and 400 – 1000mm over the extreme northern parts of the country.

2013 rainfall is predicted to be normal over large areas of the country (Fig.8b) This is likely to keep enough water in lakes, dams and rivers, for both hydroelectric power generations as well as for irrigation.

herefore, a near normal annual rainfall amount is predicted for this year.

The expected changes in the predicted annual rainfall are well below normal in Abeokuta and above normal over Ibadan and Yelwa. T


2.2.6 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2012 ACTUAL RAINFALL AND 2013 PREDICTED RAINFALL

Figure 15: Predicted excess rainfall in 2013 as compared with 2012 actual rainfall

Figure 15 showes cities that are likely to have predicted 2013 rainfall more than the 2012 observed. In summary Ilorin, Ondo and Gusau are expected to have an excess rainfall amount of between 112 and 160mm. The highest excess amount of 283mm is expected over Shaki and its environs.

Fig.16a shows that the predicted 2013 rainfall is expected to be normal except over parts of Edo, Enugu and Cross River States where above normal rainfall is expected. Also, below normal rainfall is likely over parts of Ogun, Oyo and River States. Fig. 16b is a comparison of 2013 expected rainfall with the past three-year (2010, 2011 and 2012) average. The figure indicates that the expected rainfall for 2013 will be less than the preceding three-year average.


2 4 6 8 10 12 142

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGO

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-100

-50

50

100

La

titu

de

(N

)

Longitude (E)

No

rma

lA

bo

ve

No

rma

lB

elo

wN

orm

al

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

4

6

8

10

12

14

ABE

ABU

AKU

BAU

BEN

BID

CAL

ENU

GUS

IBA

IBI

IJEIKE

IKO

ILO

ISE

JOS

KAD

KAN

KAT

LOK

MAI

MAK

MIN

NGU

OGOOND

OSG

OWE

POR

POT

SHA

SOK

UYO

WAR

YEL

YOL

ZAR

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

Fig.16a: Deviation of predicted 2013 rainfallfrom 1981 – 2010 normal

Fig.16b: Deviation of predicted 2013 rainfall from past 3years average rainfall



3.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

3.1 AVIATIONFrom the prediction, the air transport sector may not experience significant negative impact during the harmattan season of 2013. However, minor delays in flights due to reduced horizontal visibility in dust haze in January and February may occur at some airports in the country. NIMET closely monitors visibility conditions and provides advisories during this season. Airline operators are therefore advised

to regularly obtain meteorological reports regularly in compliance with International Civil Aviation- Standard and Recommended Practices (ICAO-SARP). Similarly, during the onset and cessation periods of the rainy season when thunderstorms are prevalent and severe with associated turbulence, pilots are advised to exercise great caution and heed the weather advisories provided by NIMET.

3.2 ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORTReduced visibility in dust haze and fog as described above constitute hazard in the road transport sector. Operators in this sector are therefore to adhere to speed limits and also use their fog lights when necessary. During the rainy season, the roads become slippery, and

Furthermore, high intensity

motorists are advised to take advantage of the advisories issued during such times for their safety.

rainfall may result in flooding and consequently lead to wash-out.

Even when the rainfall amount is normal, high intensity rainfall giving rise to flash floods may occur and wash-out rail lines. The relevant authorities are therefore advised to maintain close watch particularly over vulnerable sections of roads and rail lines and put in place, the necessary emergency repair plans.



3.3 AGRICULTURE3.3.1 CROPS: The normal growing season predicted for 2013 is an indication of a likely good farming year across the country. Farmers are therefore advised to commence field establishment of their crops within the period when the rains have fully set in except fortuber and root crops.

Dry spells are likely to occur in Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Yobe and Borno States particularly in the month of June 2013. Farmers in these states are therefore advised to apply caution when planting and to seek guidance from appropriate authorities to prevent economic loss. In addition, plants in nursery and fields should be safeguarded through irrigation in order to reduce economic loss from the dry spells.

Substantial rainfall expected over the savannah regions would be enough to give high agricultural

,

yields crops while the predicted adequate rainfall over the South would be sufficient for a good yield of both cereal and root crops. Farmers in the southern and central parts of the country should plant tuber crops before the full establishment of rains.However, those in Kebbi, Taraba, Niger and the Anambra axis should also endeavour to plant early maturing crops.

In line with the Federal Government's Agricultural Transformation Agenda, which aims at increasing agricultural production in the country, other necessary agricultural inputs should be adequately provided to maximize potentials of the expected adequate rainfall amount for plants and livestock and reduce economic losses. For example, farmers should have access to low-interest credit sufficiently well ahead of the planting season to enable them source relevant farm inputs such as fertilizers, improved seeds and seedlings, agro-chemicals, and hire tractors and other services.

3.3.2 LIVESTOCK Livestock production would also be positively impacted by the expected normal rainfall. However, a good management of rangeland for improved pastures through effective use of the predicted rainfall is recommended. This is to facilitate production of fodder to be stored against the dry season (drought period) and thus prevent escalation of conflicts between farmers and herdsmen in 2013.

Rain harvesting especially in the North in form of field ponds should also be encouraged to avoid early water starvation.

Government at all levels is advised to provide livestock input such as improved breeds, feeds andvaccines on time to increase potential for livestock production.


SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS


3.4 PERISHABLE CARGO PROJECT OF THE FEDERAL MINISTRY OF AVIATIONThe Federal Ministry of Aviation is implementing the construction of Perishable Cargo terminals across the country as part of the Transformation Agenda. The essence of this project is

The Perishable Cargo initiative will create a farm-to-supermarket value chain, with a spin-off benefit of wealth creation for rural farmers and stemming of rural-to-urban population migration.

Crop and animal production are very sensitive to weather and climate conditions. Cultivation, harvesting, processing, packaging, transportation to cargo airports and storage of perishable cargo for export are all affected by weather and climate

to unlock the largely untapped agricultural potentials of most parts of Nigeria to put the country on the World map of the multi-billion naira agricultural produce export business from Africa.

conditions. In modern agricultural practices, weather and climate information are applied alongside other inputs to enhance yield. When applied scientifically, weather information will help the farmer in minimizing the negative impacts of adverse weather on crops, while taking advantage of favourable conditions to enhance crop yield. The information contained in the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction, as well as other Agro-meteorological products and services of NIMET can therefore contribute significantly to optimizing and sustaining the production of perishable goods for export. NIMET will use the array of its specialized weather forecast products to contribute to the success of the Perishable Cargo and other aspects of the Transformation Agenda.

Effective use of the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction will lead to safe sowing and enhanced crop and food production. It is advisable that this information be made available to all relevant agencies that have the responsibility of advising farmers on appropriate

3.5 COASTAL AND MARINE SECTORThere is prospect of good fish yields based on the predicted normal rainfall for 2013. However there is the possibility of rainstorms and gustiness at the onset of the season, which may disrupt activities of the fishing community, as well as those of the oil and

gas industry. This may also increase the prospect of flooding and erosion particularly around the coastal areas and may result in loss of lives and properties. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and other related organizations are therefore advised to ensure adequate preparedness for possible occurrence of emergencies.




3.6 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES SECTORThe predicted normal rainfall for 2013 in most parts of the country will most likely impact positively on hydropower generation, which may result in increase in power production. However, the prospect of flooding and erosion particularly around the coastal areas as mentioned above may result in pollution of both surface and underground water, destruction to ecosystems and may lead to displacement of people. The magnitude of this impact will however vary from one hydrological area

to the other. The hydrology and water resource managers are therefore advised to be mindful of this forecast and take advantage of the opportunity it offers for proper Dams management and construction of buffer Dams. There is also the need for the National Orientation Agency and other related Agencies to sensitize communities and settlements living on flood plains on the possibility of flooding. It is also imperative that community-based early warning system required for effective grass root participation in the management of flood, be provided and installed.

3.7 DISASTER MANAGEMENTA high probability of normal rainfall has been predicted for the country, but this does not rule out chances of abnormal conditions in some states as experienced in the previous year.

The catchment areas of River Niger and parts of the Niger Delta in particular have higher chances of having more rains in 2013 than the previous year. People at such areas with high risks of flooding are therefore advised to ensure early planning with respect to sensitization, preparedness, mitigation and funding. This is necessary to reduce the risk of likely weather hazards (flooding and landslide) anticipated over such areas. Relevant Organizations and stakeholders should ensure that drainages are

cleared always.

Emphasis is made on the need to minimize all bureaucratic bottlenecks, which could delay timely communication of early warning messages. There is also need for adequate provision of logistics for the various response agencies or MDAs and the provision of other necessary tools needed for effective and efficient response by these Agencies to any challenges which may arise. This is necessary to ensure safety of lives and properties, including farmlands and crops and infrastructures as well as minimize the plight of victims usually displaced by extreme weather events such as flooding.




3.8 HEALTH The impact of dust particles in the air and that of weather parameters such as temperature, rainfall and relative humidity on health, especially during the first quarter of the year cannot be over-emphasized. Though normal maximum and minimum temperatures are expected in most part of the country during the dry season, day to day temperature variations could create some levels of discomfort. Few areas in the South-west, especially Ogun State and some parts of the north-east like Borno State are expected to experience above normal temperatures. There is also prospect of other air-borne diseases due to the harmattan dust haze during the dry season especially in the northern part of the country.

The health practitioners and government in these states should take advantage of this advisory to strengthen its contingency preparedness, against disease outbreak such as meningitis. Cold weather-related diseases such as pneumonia, cough and catarrh are likely in some states in the northeast, especia l ly Borno state where minimum temperatures are colder than normal.

Areas in the northwest, parts of the Niger Delta and Oyo State will experience flooding and people living in these areas could experience health challenges like cholera, diarrhea and other related water born diseases. There is also likelihood of stagnant water, which is breeding ground for mosquitoes thereby increase risk of malaria.




TABLE1. A DETAILED STATION-BY-STATION RESULTS OF LIKELY RAINFALL ONSET DATE, CESSATION DATE AND LENGTH OF SEASON IN DAYS ALONG WITH TOTAL SEASONAL RAINFALL IN MILLIMETERS EXPECTED IN 2013.

Station Onset End Of Season Length of Season Seasonal Rainfall

Likely

ME Days

Likely

ME Days

Likely

ME Days

Likely

ME mm

ABE 27-Mar

2

20-Nov

4

239

4

1134

51

ABU 16-Apr

2

16-Nov

3

215

3

1474

42

AKU 24-Mar

2

26-Nov

3

248

3

1424

46

BAU 22-May

3

26-Oct

3

158

4

1054

51

BEN 14-Mar

2

6-Dec

3

269

4

2226

106

BID 30-Apr

2

1-Nov

3

186

4

1095

42

CAL 9-Mar

3

15-Dec

5

283

5

2986

101

ENU 7-Apr

2

22-Nov

3

230

3

1839

51

GUS 18-May

2

21-Oct

3

156

4

884

38

IBA 27-Mar

2

25-Nov

3

244

3

1406

57

IBI 30-Apr

4

11-Nov

1

196

4

1094

45

IJE 27-Mar

2

1-Dec

3

250

3

1582

54

IKE 17-Mar

3

17-Dec

2

275

4

1470

54

IKO 19-Mar

3

28-Nov

3

255

3

2334

49

ILO 11-Apr

2

16-Nov

3

220

3

1191

38

ISE 29-Mar

3

17-Nov

3

234

3

1184

37

JOS 24-Apr

1

4-Nov

3

196

3

1244

33

KAD 13-May

1

28-Oct

3

169

3

1189

45

KAN 28-May

3

16-Oct

2

142

3

981

78

KAT 31-May

4

11-Oct

3

134

4

537

37

LOK 16-Apr

2

12-Nov

1

211

3

1169

41

MAI 18-Jun

3

21-Oct

2

127

3

552

39

MAK 21-Apr

2

17-Nov

2

210

3

1189

41

MIN 26-Apr

3

14-Nov

2

203

3

1185

34

NGU 24-Jun

2

23-Oct

1

122

3

421

23

OGO 21-Apr

1

10-Nov

0

204

1

1950

103

OND 9-Mar

3

30-Nov

4

267

4

1629

61

ONI 1-Apr

2

26-Nov

3

240

4

1883

48

OSG 29-Mar

2

27-Nov

2

244

3

1341

41

OWE 13-Mar

4

7-Dec

3

271

4

2386

57

POR 2-Mar

3

14-Dec

3

288

4

2231

47

POT 11-Jun

3

18-Oct

2

129

4

639

38

SHA 31-Mar

3

15-Nov

5

230

5

1123

48

SOK 29-May

3

11-Oct

2

136

4

617

22

UYO 16-Mar 3 11-Dec 3 271 4 2411 179

WAR 2-Mar 2 9-Dec 3 284 4 2798 61

YEL 13-May 3 25-Oct 1 167 3 1000 39

YOL 18-May 2 2-Nov 2 168 3 873 26

ZAR 14-May 1 21-Oct 2 161 3 1033 36


APPENDIX


TABLE 2: A DETAILED TOWN BY TOWN RESULTS OF RAINFALL ONSET, CESSATION, AND LENGTH OF SEASON ALONG WITH SEASONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN 2012 AND THEIR MARGIN OF ERRORS


Onset date

Season end

Season Length

DaysAnnual

Rainfall mm

Abia

Aba

7.35

5.10

7-Mar

9-Dec

279

2356

Umuahia

7.48

5.52

12-Mar

6-Dec

270

2161

Adamawa

Michika

13.43

10.70

13-May

28-Oct

169

738

Mubi

13.25

10.27

8-May

31-Oct

177

787

Yola

12.45

9.23

18-May

2-Nov

168

873

Jada

12.10

8.72

19-Apr

12-Nov

208

1067

Akwa Ibom

Eket

7.95

4.40

27-Feb

15-Dec

292

2708

Ikot Ekpene

7.70

5.18

8-Mar

9-Dec

277

2318

Uyo

7.92

5.05

16-Mar

11-Dec

271

2411

Anambra

Ihiala

5.30

6.30

21-Mar

30-Nov

255

1831

Onitsha

6.78

6.15

1-Apr

26-Nov

240

1883

Awka

6.20

7.07

31-Mar

24-Nov

240

1545

Bauchi

Bauchi

9.82

10.28

22-May

26-Oct

158

1054

Azare

10.17

11.67

25-May

21-Oct

150

674

Alkaleri

10.25

10.32

9-May

31-Oct

176

781

Bayelsa

Yenogoa

6.25

4.92

5-Mar

11-Dec

282

2444

Nembe

6.37

4.48

28-Feb

14-Dec

291

2666

Brass

6.25

4.30

26-Feb

15-Dec

294

2761

Benue

Gboko

7.32

9.02

23-Apr

10-Nov

202

1000

Makurdi

9.00

8.00

21-Apr

17-Nov

210

1189

Oturkpo

7.18

8.13

12-Apr

16-Nov

219

1217

Borno

Biu

10.58

12.18

31-May

17-Oct

140

666

Maiduguri

13.08

11.85

27-May

19-Oct

146

669

Kukawa

12.92

13.57

17-Jun

6-Oct

112

733

Cross River

Calabar

8.35

4.97

9-Mar

15-Dec

283

2986

Ikom

8.72

5.97

19-Mar

28-Nov

255

2334

Ogoja

8.80

6.70

21-Apr

10-Nov

204

1950

Delta

Asaba

6.82

6.23

20-Mar

1-Dec

257

1859

Sapele

5.88

5.67

14-Mar

5-Dec

268

2095

Warri

5.73

5.52

2-Mar

9-Dec

284

2798

Ebonyi Abakaliki 6.33 8.08 12-Apr 17-Nov 220 1230

Afikpo 5.88 7.91 10-Apr 18-Nov 223 1278

Edo Benin 5.60 6.33 14-Mar 6-Dec 269 2226

Auchi 7.07 6.25 21-Mar 1-Dec 256 1851

Margin of error

Margin of error

Margin of error

Margin of error

1-3 Days 1-4 Days 1-5 Days 21-179 mm

State City Long Lat

APPENDIX



Onset date

Season end

Season Length

DaysAnnual

Rainfall mmState City Long Lat

Ekiti Ado Ekiti 7.60 5.20 8-Mar 9-Dec 277 2309

Ikere Ekiti 7.50 5.22 8-Mar 8-Dec 276 2299

Ilawe Ekiti

7.37

5.05

6-Mar

10-Dec

280

2381

Enugu

Enugu

7.00

6.50

7-Apr

22-Nov

230

1839

Nsukka

6.85

7.38

3-Apr

22-Nov

234

1441

Awgu

6.07

7.47

4-Apr

21-Nov

232

1412

Gombe

Gombe

11.17

10.27

8-May

31-Oct

177

787

Nafada

11.30

11.10

18-May

25-Oct

161

704

Kaltungo

11.32

9.80

2-May

4-Nov

186

855

Imo

Okigwe

5.83

7.35

3-Apr

22-Nov

234

1451

Owerri

7.03

5.48

13-Mar

7-Dec

271

2386

Jigawa

Gumel

9.37

12.62

6-Jun

14-Oct

131

673

Hadejia

10.03

12.42

3-Jun

15-Oct

135

668

Dutse

9.33

11.80

27-May

20-Oct

147

670

Kaduna

Kaduna

7.45

10.60

13-May

28-Oct

169

1189

Kafanchan

9.57

8.28

14-Apr

15-Nov

216

1176

Zaria

7.75

11.07

14-May

21-Oct

161

1033

Kano

Kano

8.53

12.05

28-May

16-Oct

142

981

Gaya

9.00

11.83

27-May

19-Oct

146

669

Rano

8.57

11.53

23-May

22-Oct

152

679

Katsina

Funtua

7.30

11.52

23-May

22-Oct

153

679

Katsina

7.68

13.02

31-May

11-Oct

134

537

Daura

8.30

13.00

10-Jun

11-Oct

123

689

Musawa

7.67

12.11

30-May

17-Oct

141

666

Kebbi

Jega

4.43

12.20

31-May

17-Oct

139

666

Argungu

4.52

12.72

7-Jun

13-Oct

129

676

Birnin Kebbi

4.20

12.43

3-Jun

15-Oct

135

668

Yelwa

4.50

11.00

13-May

25-Oct

167

1000

Kogi

Lokoja

6.73

7.80

16-Apr

12-Nov

211

1169

Okene

6.22

7.55

5-Apr

21-Nov

231

1387

Idah

6.72

7.10

31-Mar

24-Nov

239

1534

Kwara

Ilorin

4.58

8.48

11-Apr

16-Nov

220

1191

Lafiaji

6.52

9.08

24-Apr

9-Nov

200

988

Offa

4.70

8.12

12-Apr

17-Nov

219

1219

Lagos

Ikeja

3.33

6.58

17-Mar

17-Dec

275

1722

Ikorodu

3.50

6.60

25-Mar

28-Nov

249

1714

Badagry

2.88

6.37

22-Mar

30-Nov

254

1803

Nasarawa

Lafia

8.47

8.50

17-Apr

14-Nov

212

1120

Akwanga

8.90

8.40

16-Apr

14-Nov

214

1145

Keffi

8.83

7.87

9-Apr

18-Nov

224

1290

Niger

Kontogora

5.45

10.40

10-May

30-Oct

175

771

Minna 6.54 9.56 26-Apr 14-Nov 203 1185

Bida 6.00 9.80 30-Apr 1-Nov 186 1095

Ogun Ijebu-Ode 3.93 6.83 27-Mar 1-Dec 250 1582

Abeokuta 3.33 7.20 27-Mar 20-Nov 239 1500

Sagamu 3.63 6.83 28-Mar 26-Nov 245 1629

Ondo Akure 5.30 7.20 24-Mar 26-Nov 248 1424

Ondo 4.83 7.10 9-Mar 30-Nov 267 1629

APPENDIX


Osun

Ila

4.90

8.00

11-Apr

17-Nov 222

1253

Oshogbo

4.50

7.82

29-Mar

27-Nov 244

1341

Ilesa

4.73

7.62

6-Apr

20-Nov

229

1365

Oyo Shaki 3.47 8.35 31-Mar 15-Nov 230 1123

Iseyin 3.60 7.97 29-Mar 17-Nov 234 1184

Ibadan 3.90 7.43 27-Mar 25-Nov 244 1406

Plateau Jos 8.90 9.87 24-Apr 4-Nov 196 1244

Bokkos 9.28 8.98 23-Apr 10-Nov 202 1009

Pankshin 9.30 9.43 28-Apr 7-Nov 194 919

Rivers

Port-hacourt

7.12

4.85

2-Mar

14-Dec 288

2478

Opobo

7.55

4.62

1-Mar

13-Dec 288

2594

Bonny

7.15

4.42

28-Feb

14-Dec 292

2698

Sokoto

Gada

5.65

13.73

19-Jun 5-Oct

109

749

Lema

4.22

12.93

9-Jun

11-Oct

125

686

Sokoto

5.20

12.92

29-May

11-Oct

136

617

Taraba

Ibi

8.17

9.73

30-Apr

11-Nov

196

1094

Wukari

7.87

9.77

2-May

4-Nov

187

859

Gembu

11.25

6.70

26-Mar

27-Nov

247

1677

Yobe

Nguru

10.47

12.88

24-Jun

23-Oct

122

421

Potiskun

11.03

11.70

11-Jun

18-Oct

129

639

Damaturu

11.75

11.95

28-May

19-Oct

144

667

Zamfara

Gummi

5.10

12.13

31-May

17-Oct

141

666

Talata Mafara

6.07

12.55

5-Jun

14-Oct

132

671

Gusau

6.77

12.17

18-May

21-Oct

156

884

FCT

Abuja

7.00

9.25

16-Apr

16-Nov

215

1474

Kwali 6.98 8.85 21-Apr 11-Nov 205 1037

Karshi 7.55 8.82 21-Apr 11-Nov 206 1044

Onset date

Season end

Season Length

DaysAnnual

Rainfall mmState City Long Lat

APPENDIX

Like a doctor, NIMET prescribes the weather and climatic requirements

for the Aviation sector...

SKIES


agriculture We enhance agriculture productivity

and food security through the prescription of climatic requirements...


Activities in this sector are bolstered by the relevant

predictions of the weatherman...

Tourism


Telecommunications

Competition in the telecoms sectoris fierce. A smart service provideruses weather data... the masts are

quite susceptible to the vagaries of weather...


Our specialized weather forecast provides the construction industry with weather and climate information which guarantees the stability of their structures...

CONSTRUCTION


MARINEOur climatic requirementprescriptions for the maritimesector enhances safety andsecurity at sea...


oil & gas

To achieve synergy withnature in the Oil and Gassector, NIMET is a formidable ally in business...


Facilities in the power & energy sectors are affected by adverse weather like thunder, lightening, hurricane and

tornadoes... you might want to play safe...

POWER & ENERGY


social events

You do not want to work all the way and not play, be WEATHER-WISE ...


sports sports We worked with CHOGM, and the U17

Fifa World Cup Local Organizing Committee... get listed ...


COMMERCE

Times have changed, vision has transformed, action has evolved but what will remain constant is the importance of weather

in socio-economic activity ...

Commerceand Industry

Commerceand Industry


DEFENCE We can go on and on... strategize better today with weather data so

that weather incidents storms do not constitute a danger to life or a disadvantage to defense strategies ...



NATIONWIDE CONTACT FOR NIMET INFORMATION


S/N NAMES GL STATES PHONE NUMBER Email

1. Mr. O.O. Ufor 14 Abia 08068183876

2. Mr. C. Igbo 14 Abuja 08038775707 [email protected]. Mr. A.M. Buba 14 Adamawa 08058368711 [email protected]. Mr. I.J. Akpan 14 Akwa Ibom 08037609966

[email protected]

5. Mr. F.C. Omenikolo 14 Anambra 08036142236 [email protected].

Mr. E.P. Adikwu

14

Bauchi

08034824468

[email protected].

Mr. W.N. Uriah

14

Bayelsa

08028693332

08038822237

[email protected]

8.

Mr. M.O. Ikwujelan

14

Benue

08065351517

08057461691

[email protected]

9.

Mr. B. Sule

13

Borno

08057275915

[email protected].

Mr. E.O. Effiong

14

Cross River

08023832965,

08064476782

[email protected]

11.

Mr.

K. Osawaru

Delta

08023311111

[email protected]

12.

Mr. S. O. Nwachukwu

14

Ebonyi

08069426580

[email protected].

Mr. E. Mmumu

14

Edo

08077884077

[email protected].

Mr. L.U. Ugwu

14

Enugu

08056828883

[email protected]

Mrs. M.A.

Olatunji

14

Ekiti

08034257790

[email protected].

Mr. E.E. Abassi

14

Gombe

08059534934

08036231223

[email protected]

17.

Mrs. M.N. Osakwe

14

Imo

08065518281

[email protected].

Mr. J.O. Noah

13

Jigawa

08036820716

[email protected].

Mr. E. Orih

14

Kaduna

08051320307

[email protected].

Mr. J.J. Abui

13

Kano

08060765244

[email protected].

Mr. G.M. Eya

14

Katsina

08032656396

[email protected].

Mr. O.A. Osunlalu

14

Kogi

08036820685

08024564382

[email protected]

23.

Mr. D.I. Ojediran

14

Kwara

08033859232

[email protected].

Mr. A.O. Adeniyi

14

Lagos

08028625370

[email protected].

Mr. E.O. Udezor

14

Niger

08077185673

[email protected].

Mr. J.I. Azi

14

Nasarawa

07034634544

[email protected].

Mr. A.D. Ogunleye

14

Ogun

08080421881

[email protected].

Mr. E.G. Okoghenu

14

Ondo

08077543106

[email protected].

Mr. J. O. Adenle

14

Osun

08032900145

[email protected].

Mr. M.A. Olayiwola

14

Oyo

08034825509

[email protected].

Mr. C.C. Ihekandu

13

Plateau

08054415845

[email protected].

Mr. I.S. Frank

14

Rivers

08037650208

[email protected]

33.

Mr. M.O. Kiorgwu

14

Sokoto

08036287884

[email protected]

34.

Mr. E.L. Samu el

13

Taraba

08074159493

35.

Mr. H.K. Peters

13

Yobe

07057573007

08036851974 [email protected]

36.

Mr. W. Ageda

14

Zamfara 08050449784

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