seafood systems - oregon state university
TRANSCRIPT
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Seafood Systems
James L. Anderson
Director, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems
Professor, Food & Resource Economics
University of Florida
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Food is the indispensable cornerstone of human well-being
Innovative Solutions for a Productive and Healthy World
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Human Nutrition &
Food Security
Aquatic Food
Systems
Terrestrial
Food Systems
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James L. Anderson, Food and Resource Economics: International trade, fisheries/aquaculture economics
Frank Asche, School of Forest Resources and Conservation: natural resource economics, price analysis, industrial structure, aquaculture
Karen Garrett, Plant Pathology: impact network analysis, plant disease ecology, ecological genomics
Core ISFS Faculty Team
Arie Havelaar, Animal Science & Emerging Pathogens Institute: risk assessment of infectious diseases and food safety
Gerrit Hoogenboom, Agriculture & Biological Engineering: crop simulation and decision support
Cheryl Palm, Agricultural & Biological Engineering: tropical land use degradation and rehabilitation
Pedro Sanchez, Soil & Water Sciences: food security and tropical soils
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Systems Thinking
Why?
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The Blue Ribbon Panel (2013) –Assembled by The World Bank
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Naoko IshiiCEOGlobal EnvironmentFacility
David OburaFounding DirectorCORDIO, East Africa
Henry DemonePresident & CEOHigh Liner Foods
H.E. Neroni SladeSecretary GeneralPacific Islands Forum
Sylvia EarleFounderMission Blue
Thiraphong ChansiriPresidentThai Union Foods
Ove Hoegh-GuldbergDir. of Global Change InstituteUniversity of Queensland
Kim Ahn NguyenProfessor Nha Trang Univ.Vietnam
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Blue Ribbon Panel
“…we must recognize that the well-being of communities, viability of economies, and sustainability of ecosystems are intricately linked.”
“…solutions must be multidimensional and integrate all aspects of the socio-ecological system.”
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Pirates in the Indian Ocean are there due to failure of fisheries governance, hunger,
and corruption.
Food Insecurity results in civil unrest.
Admiral Howard Commander of the multinational task
force to conduct counter-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean
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Conservation solutions don’t work if the behavior of the ‘apex predator‘ is not thoughtfully
incorporated…
And we are the Apex Predator.
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The Global Food System
A dynamic and increasingly complex web of:
Technology - production, processing, communication, distribution
International trade, markets, policy
Public and private institutions
Diverse cultures and values
Environmental and bio-physical interactions
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Minimalist systems:
Tragedy of reductionist thinking
Extensive Systems:
Paralysis of getting lost in the weeds
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Bluefin Tuna for Pet Food – missed market opportunity, lost income, waste
Salmon Disease in Chile - lost market share, lost income, unemployment, environmental damage
US Catfish & Vietman Pangasius – many US farms out of business, lost market share
Ineffective command and control fisheries: numerous examples of waste, lost income, environmental damage
Numerous Infrastructure projects without ineffective fisheries management – depleted fisheries, abandon facilities, wasted funding
Killing sparrows during China’s Great Leap Forward – increased pests, crop failure, starvation
Tragedy of reductionist thinkingSystem Minimalist
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The Triple Bottom Line
New Tools… Staying out of the weeds
Economic Sustainability
Ecological Sustainability
Community Sustainability
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Economics
Ecology Community
Fishery Performance Indicators
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Some Big Picture Trends that require
Systems Thinking
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9 Billion by 2050
Source: NIC Report (2013); FAOSTAT; U.S. Census Bureau
60%
More Food Needed
(Traditional Agriculture Only)
Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World
agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision.
ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Rome, FAO.
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Focusing on The 9 billion story–leads to production-oriented ‘solutions’
– plus we won’t stop at 9 billion
What kind of food?Who will have access?
Who gets to eat it?What about nutrition? Safety?
Obesity? Disease?Waste? Efficiency?
Global trade?How will it impact the environment? Climate change?
THE FOOD STORY IS VERY BIG EVEN IF POPULATION GROWTH STOPPED
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Food Production Problem?
Source: FAOSTAT, WHO
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Demand for Fish and Meat
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1970
1974
1978
198
2
198
6
199
0
199
4
199
8
200
2
200
6
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
204
2
204
6
2050
200
5 U
SD
/Cap
ita
WEALTH Will it Continue to Grow?
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China’s per capita consumption of seafood:
1981: 5.2 kg/capita/year 2011: 33.1 kg/capita/year
• Share: 7% in US• Share: 21 % in China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mil
lion
ton
nes
Year
China United States
Source: FAO (2016a)
China, Wealth and Seafood
Seafood supply: China and US, 1961-2011
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Fish & Shellfish for Direct Human Consumption
Source: FAO FishStat (2018)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
18019
50
1953
1956
1959
196
2
196
5
196
8
1971
1974
1977
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
200
1
200
4
200
7
2010
2013
2016
MM
T
Capture Aquaculture
2016Wild 48%Farmed 52%
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Global Aquaculture Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9019
50
1953
1956
1959
196
2
196
5
196
8
1971
1974
1977
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
200
1
200
4
200
7
2010
2013
2016
MM
T
Aquaculture Source: FishStatJ 2018: Note: Excluding aquatic
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Global Animal Protein: 1980,2015(Excludes Eggs & Dairy)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 2015
Mill
. mt
Aquaculture
Seafood (w)
Mutton
Poultry
Pork
Beef
Aquaculture Share1980: 4%2015: 20%
Source: FAOSTAT, FishStatJ 2018
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Fish to 20302030 (Model Projection)
1. Aquaculture will produce about 2/3of food fish
2. China will consume nearly 40% of seafood
3. Production of tilapia, shrimp more than will double
4. Aquaculture will more than double in India, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
5. Per Capita consumption of Fish in Sub-Sahara Africa will declineS. Msangi, IFPRI
M. Kobayashi, World Bank M. Batka, IFPRIS. Vannuccini, FAOM. Dey, Univ. of ArkansasJ. L. Anderson, Univ. of Florida
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1) Source new supply from farmed imports (mostly from developing countries)
2) Source new supply from a growing US aquaculture industry
So far the US has chosen #1
TWO PATHS
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Source: NMFS (2017) Fisheries of the US, 2016
The US Imports Approx. 90% of Its SeafoodThe Trade Deficit is approaching $15 billion
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1976
1978
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
2010
2012
Global Seafood Trade: Quantity 1976-2013(MMT)
36% of Seafood enters International Trade60% is from Developing Countries
Source: FishStatJ 2017
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Environment Management/Pollution Standards
Disease Management – Antibiotic Use
Lack of Transparency
Food Security
Potential Labor Exploitation
Fraud – origin, species, adulteration
Quality Control
Political Uncertainty
Nonnative Species Introduction
Risks of Dependence on Imports from Developing Countries
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Land-based FarmingMiami Herald 3-19-2018
Atlantic Sapphire9,000 MT 1st Phase
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If we fail to have sustainable systems that supply food and income from
oceans, rivers, lakes and aquaculture….
…We will see more intensive land use and increasing risk of more deforestation and biodiversity loss
…More Malnutrition…Loss of Employment and Income
ThinkRIDGE to REEF
AndSEA to PLATE