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SEA-PAC - June, 2015 Scott Scheirman, W7SLS / AFA0YM
Clark County WA AEC
Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
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2015 MARS Region 10 Conference
Scott Scheirman NNN0YMY
Cascadia Topics
• About your presenter
• What is the Cascadia Rising Exercise?
• How do we know it will be a big one?
• What are the likely impacts?
• How can you prepare for the exercise (and the event)?
• Credits, links, resources
Q&A throughout
3 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ)
Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
Simulated regional response to a 9.0 magnitude earthquake
Epicenter 95 mi W of Eugene, OR
Loss/damage based on scientific models (90% confidence level)
Four day, 24-hours/day (Tue-Fri, June 7-10, 2016)
Largest simulated emergency exercise in Pacific NW
Federal, State, Local, Tribal, Private, Amateur, MARS, SHARES, NGO
Does not include ‘secondary effects’
“Injects” (surprise field problems)
Provide EOC to EOC voice / data links
Relay critical messages to the public (no TV or internet)
MARS / Amateur Radio - only communications in early phases?
What is the Exercise?
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
What is the schedule?
Feb ‘15: Initial Planning
Meeting
Mar ‘16: Final Planning
Meeting
Sept ‘16: Publish Regional
AAR
May: Kick-Off
Feb ‘16: MSEL Synch
Meeting
June: C&O Meeting
Aug ‘15: Mid-term Planning Meeting
Jan ‘15: CSZ Plans Seminars
Jan ‘15: Publish Scenario
Document
Now Apr ‘15: Situational Assessment Workshop
June ‘15: Publish Ground
Truth
• Sept ‘15: Publish Exercise Plan
• Publish Exercise Evaluation
Guides
Conduct Exercise
Feb ‘15: Publish Joint Exercise
Objectives
• Launch Exercise Website
Dec: Exercise Design Seminars
Feb ‘16: Publish Media
Plan
Apr ‘15: Finalize Concept for
JLOTS and Ultimate Caduceus
field play
• May ‘16: Publish Control and Evaluation
Plan
• Publish Communications Plan
May ‘16: Conduct C&E
Training
May ‘16: MSEL Synch
Meeting
LEGEND
Blue: Exercise Design
Black: Meetings
Red: Ramp Up Event
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
Why this scenario?
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2015 MARS Region 10 Conference
Scott Scheirman NNN0YMY
Scott Scheirman NNN0YMY / W7SLS
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2015 MARS Region 10 Conference
Scott Scheirman NNN0YMY
Orphan Tsunami
• Are those Breakfast Links, or a Dinner Sausage?
• Mag 9 earthquakes every ~3-500 years
• Most recent one was January 26, 1700
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
How much will it shake?
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
What will the tsunami(s) affect?
WA Coast Puget Sound
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
What will be damaged or destroyed?
WA Coast WA I-5 corridor
Injured (Quake / Tsunami) 2000 / 3000 7000 / 400
Deaths (Quake / Tsunami) 100 / 9000 300 / 1300
Highways 80% 30%
Bridges 73% 40%
Airports 100% 40%
Rail 73% 45%
WA Seaports 100% 82%
Electrical Facilities 100% 78%
Natural Gas Systems 100% 95%
Refined Fuels Industry n/a 100%
Communications Systems 100% 76%
% gone or would require major repairs
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
“Normal” ECOM Plan
All regions contact State EOC: Camp Murray, WA
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
Overwhelmed in in a catastrophic disaster?
40% of state lives nearby
King County – 2 million
Pierce County – 0.8 million
WA – 7 million
Physical integrity
Ground stability
Infrastructure stability
WA State EOC – Camp Murray WA
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
Cascadia Rising Exercise
Regions 5 & 6: State EOC. Regions 1-4: HF links to Eastern Regions
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
Take care of you and your family
Emergency food, water, supplies, 72 hour kit (or longer)
Get your “radio” ready
V/UHF and HF station
Emergency power
Become proficient at Winlink 2K (PACTOR and/or WINMOR)
Learn more
Attend training events, guest speakers at club meetings
Participate in ARRL or local SET, MARS exercises, CERT
What can I do?
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
Orphan Tsunami http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1707/
alternate: http://pubs.dggsalaskagov.us/webpubs/usgs/p/text/p1707.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFqm7qJ_RcU - Brian Atwater Talk
Cascadia Rising Exercise https://huxley.wwu.edu/sites/huxley.wwu.edu/files/Cascadia_Rising_high_0.pdf
ARES
http://www.wastateares.org
http://www.oregonaresraces.org/
Mike Chaplin NC7Q, WA Communications lead (EFS 2), ARRL ASEC, ASRO
Monte Simpson AF7PQ ARRL WWA SM, WA STATE RO
Resources / Credits
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Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
“It will take 50 years for us to prepare for this impending earthquake” – Scott Ashford
Kearney Professor and Dean of the OSU College of Engineering May-2015
The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. – Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching, ~550 BC (?)
What will you do?
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Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016
QUESTIONS?