Mark Bennett, USGSStudy funded Cooperatively with Newport

News Waterworks

Presentation derived primarily from study entitled:

“ Simulated Changes in Salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers as a Result of

Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay”

Karen C. Rice, Mark R. Bennett, and Jian Shen

Peninsula Water Supply Peninsula Water Supply NN Waterworks -

Chickahominy River, five reservoirs, & desalted groundwater (62 mgd)

Williamsburg – onereservoir; interconnections

JCC & York County: groundwater; interconnections

Regional sharing Agreements

D iascund C reekR eservoir

L ittle C reekR eservoirNew Kent C ounty

C hickahom inyR iver

W illiam sburg

York C ounty

Y o r k Ri v e r

W aller M illR eservoir

Lee H allR eservoir

N

S

EW

Poquoson

Newport News

Skiffe ’s C reekR eservoir

H arwood’s M illR eservoir

N ewport N ew s W aterw orksService A rea

James R

iver

C hesapeake Bay

H am pton

Jam es C ity County

Lee H allW ellfie ld

Chickahominy RiverChickahominy River Primary source of fresh water to the

region

Limited source during droughts due

to low flows and salinity

Tidal barrier dam designed/installed

in 1940’s

Warming impacts on surface water qualityWarming impacts on surface water quality Drought Intensity and frequency changesDrought Intensity and frequency changes Demand Patterns (including population Demand Patterns (including population

shifts and seasonal peaking changes)shifts and seasonal peaking changes) Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Salinity Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Salinity GradientsGradients

Sea Level Trends

Normal and drought flow conditions in York and Chickahominy River

Low, Median, and High Sea-level Rise Scenarios

1. 20th Century rate = 3-4 mm/year; 30-40 cm by 21002. 2oth Century rate + 2 mm/year acceleration; up to 50 cm by

21003. 20th Century rate + 7 mm/year acceleration; up to 100 cm

by 2100

Model development,

testing and calibration by

VIMS and USGS

Adapted Chesapeake

Bay model and river models

(HEM-3D)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004

CH

LOR

IDE

CON

CEN

TRA

TIO

N,

IN M

ILLI

GR

AM

S P

ER L

ITER

Calibration Results

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008

SALI

NIT

Y, I

N P

AR

TS P

ER T

HO

USA

ND

No rise

30-cm rise

EXPLANATION

A.

Surface salinity at Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River

3 documented historical events

30 cm rise increases duration slightly, increases concentration significantly

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008

SALI

NIT

Y, I

N P

AR

TS P

ER T

HO

USA

ND

50-cm rise

100-cm rise

EXPLANATION

B.

Higher sea-level conditions increase number of excursions during lower flow periods ( 7-8 events !)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS

SA

LIN

ITY

, IN

PA

RT

S P

ER

TH

OU

SA

ND

B.

No rise

30-cm rise

50-cm rise

100-cm rise

RIV

ER

MO

UT

H

October 2005 flow conditions (“normal dry season/year”)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS

SA

LIN

ITY

, IN

PA

RT

S P

ER

TH

OU

SA

ND

RIV

ER

MO

UT

H

A.

No rise

30-cm rise

50-cm rise

100-cm rise

October 2002 flow conditions(Severe Drought)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008

SALI

NIT

Y, IN

PA

RTS

PER

THO

USA

ND

No rise

30-cm rise

EXPLANATIONA.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008

SALI

NIT

Y, IN

PAR

TS P

ER T

HO

USA

ND

50-cm rise

100-cm rise

B.EXPLANATION

October 2005 flow conditions (“normal dry season/year”)

5

10

15

20

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS

SA

LIN

ITY

, IN

PA

RT

S P

ER

TH

OU

SA

ND

No rise

30-cm rise

50-cm rise

100-cm rise

A.

RIV

ER

MO

UT

H

HE

AD

OF

TH

E R

IVE

R

October 2002 flow conditions (severe drought)

5

10

15

20

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS

SA

LIN

ITY

, IN

PA

RT

S P

ER

TH

OU

SA

ND

B.

100-cm rise

50-cm rise

30-cm rise

No rise

RIV

ER

MO

UT

H

HE

AD

OF

T

HE

RIV

ER

Sea-Level rise will impact the freshwater-salt water – brackish water gradients in the York River and Chickahominy River.

Changes will be most notable during low flows and in areas with a lower volume of flow

What are the potential implications for habitat?

Questions ?Questions ?

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1191/2011/1191/

Quality. Reliability. Community.