CCRUN Green Infrastructure, Climate and Cities Seminar SeriesJanuary 4, 2017

www.NICHIusa.org

The Bifurcation of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Plans for Metropolitan Areas: New York and New

Jersey Metropolitan Area

Super Storm Sandy

NYC Coastal Demographics

• 520 mile coastline, longer than Miami, Boston, Los Angelos and San Francisco combined

• 535 Million Square Feet of Built Structures in the 100 year Flood Plain

• 400,000 residents living in the 100 year Flood Plain

The Facts: NYC Impact of Super Storm Sandy14 foot Storm Surge*

• 48 Deaths in NYC• $19 Billion in Damages• Over 150 homes and commercial buildings destroyed• 305,000 housing units damaged• Eleven million customers without power, internet • Lower Manhattan loses water, elevators, heat, subways• All car tunnels to Manhattan flooded except for Lincoln• Three NYC area international airports damaged and closed• Billions of gallons of raw and partially treated sewage discharged• Bellevue Hospital Center Evacuated* Super Storm Sandy Storm Surge at Battery almost 4 feet higher than previously

recorded

Four Years Later….. Lest We Forget

The Facts don’t Tell the Whole Story

The Next Sandy?It’s not a question of if, but When!

Current NY Flood Risk Map Category 1-4 Hurricanes

NYC Future Coastal Resiliency Vulnerability

• According to Mayor Bloomberg’s 2012 Reconvened NYC Panel on Climate Change

• By 2050 • Projected NYC Sea Level Rise is 31 inches• Over 60% Increase in Rainfall Days of 2” or more• Increase in the strength and frequency of major storms• Increase in the height and frequency of storm surge

• BY 2055• $90 Billion in Damages from a Sandy Level Event

New York City’s Response to Sandy

• Despite Katrina there is no national coastal resiliency plan• Despite a 2009 NYC proposal for a Regional Storm Surge

Barrier, there is no regional plan• In December 2012, Mayor Bloomberg acts quickly after

Sandy and establishes the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR)

• In the absence of a Regional Storm Surge Barrier Plan, NYC through SIRR focuses on Local Resiliency Plans

Post Sandy NYC Coastal Resiliency Policy Criteria

• Plans must be Local not dependant on New York or New Jersey Sate Government

• Plans must be economically feasible• Plans must be initiated within Mayor

Bloomberg’s term (18 months)• Plans must be fully funded

The “SIRR” Report

The SIRR Report (2013): Analyzes Climate Risks and Makes Recommendations

• 250 Specific Recommendations • $20 Billion Cost• Plan is fully formulated but will not be completed in the Mayor

Bloomberg’s term• Plan to proceed in Two Phases

Phase 1: Intended to “immediately” protect NYC’s most vulnerable assets and shoreline

Phase 2: Protects most of the City’s vulnerable Shoreline “When Funds are Available”

Phase 1: SIRR Local Project Focus“The City will work to install, in a first phase, integrated flood protection

systems”

• Hunts Point in the Bronx • East Harlem Waterfront along the Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive;• Hospital Row north of East 23rdStreet in Manhattan;• Lower East Side; • Chinatown• Financial District• Red Hook in Brooklyn.• East Shore of Staten Island

Rebuild by DesignThe Federal Government’s Resiliency Program

for New York and New Jersey

Goals: To: Dramatically Improve Coastal Resiliency To: Foster Intergovernmental and Cross

Discipline Collaboration To: Develop “Locally” Responsive Proposals

Method: Design Competition for NY and NJ Metro Area Between 10 Finalists

Funding: $1 Billion

RBD Projects Awarded in 2014

• NYC, Manhattan: “Big U” ($335 million)• Hoboken, Jersey City and Weehawken NJ

“Little U” ($230 Million)• NYC, Hunt’s Point (South Bronx) ($20 Million) Planning Only• NY, Long Island (Storing/Filtering Storm water in Tributaries)

($125 Million)• NJ, New Meadowlands, Wetlands and Berms ($150 Million)• NYC, Staten Island: Oyster Reefs ($60 Million)

Impact of RBD on SIRR Projects

• The 2014 RBD Project Awards provided funding that could be used in conjunction with identified SIRR Projects

• The RBD funding, together with other RBD related federal funds and other Sandy relief funding were focused on RBD award designs and FEMA disaster relief design guidelines that imposed design and funding restrictions as well as deadlines for spending that tightly constrained NYC design criteria and objectives for previously identified NYC SIRR Projects

SIRR Project Funding• Total cost of the more than 250 recommendations

detailed in the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency report is nearly $20 billion

• Cost is based on projects proceeding “Without Delay”• $10 billion from City capital funding already allocated

and Federal relief, • $5 billion from additional, expected Federal relief

already appropriated by Congress. • Strategies to cover remaining $4.5 billion gap include

additional Federal funding and City capital.

Four Years After Sandy: The Status of SIRR and RBD Projects

In the absence of a regional solution, NY and NJ Metropolitan Resiliency Projects were designed to be local projects that could be built quickly with minimum cost and maximum effect.

Many of these projects are now delayed, downsized, over budget, underfunded and, limited to Phase I objectives,leave many communities, buildings, businesses and critical infrastructure facilities as vulnerable to the next Sandy as to the last.

The 2017 Status of Key SIRR and RBD Projects• The Manhattan projects have encountered significant design issues with delays,

community and business opposition and cost over runs caused in part by:

Federal funding restrictions and delays

The 15 ‘ design height of combined sea level and surge barrier protection

Hydro-geological issues including limited space for land based barriers. commercial districts and neighborhoods built on permeable land fill and inability to discharge rainfall accumulation inside the barrier in storm events.

Built Infrastructure including underground utilities and foundations, complex transportation infrastructure and social infrastructure with complex lifestyle, transportation, work and recreational wants and needs

The 2017 Status of Key SIRR and RBD ProjectsContinued

• The Hoboken Little U is delayed, underfunded, and has been moved inland leaving the waterfront unprotected due to strong opposition from those it was designed to protect

• The New Meadowlands project has been downsized with significant loss of effective protection and wetland water retention due to underfunding

• NYC, Staten Island barriers have been down sized and shortened significantly limiting their effectiveness and erosion control

The Answer to the Current SIRR and RBD Project Challenges

is to Bifurcate the Fundamental Design Concept of SIRR and RBD

• Currently the SIRR and RBD Projects are based on a design concept of using local infrastructure to provide coastal resiliency for both Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

• However, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge while capable of having a devastating cumulative impact are in fact two very distinct and separate phenomenon that require two very different design specifications and have very different cost profiles and community impacts

Sea Level Rise

• Sea Level Rise is continuous over time with predictable lunar episodic monthly and seasonal fluctuations

• NYC Sea Level Rise is relatively slow and subject to longer term forecasting, 21 inches by 2025, 31 inches 2050. by 2100

• Fixed Barriers to sea level Rise of 6 feet could protect NYC for the next 100 years and consequently would have far less disruptive effect on the built infrastructure, the social infrastructure and the Natural environment than barriers designed to address rising sea levels and 15 foot or more surges.

• Barriers built only for Sea Level Rise would also be less expensive and available funds could be used to protect more communities

Storm Surge

• Although storms are increasing in frequency, strength and devastation, Storm Surge is episodic and develops quickly with little warning

• Sandy wasn’t even a Category 1 Hurricane when it struck NYC and caused a 14 foot storm surge at the NYC Battery

• In the future storm surges will be 15-20 feet and more.

The Solution

Local Projects Address Sea Level Rise A Regional Storm Surge Barrier System Addresses Storm Surge

The NY NJ Metropolitan Storm Surge Working Group (NY NJ SSWG)

• After Sandy, the option of studying a Regional Storm Surge Barrier for the NY NJ Metro Area was endorsed by three NYC Community Boards, the Manhattan Borough President and by Governor Cuomo, but no such official study has ever been conducted.

• In 2015 60 scientists, engineers, government officials and community representatives form the NY NJ SSWG to begin working together to focus on regional solutions to storm surge impacts on the NY NJ Metropolitan Area

• In 2017, the NY NJ SSWG will issue a White Paper that sets forth their conclusion regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of a NYNJ Metropolitan regional surge barrier option

A NY NJ Metro Regional Storm Surge Barrier

System• An off shore regional storm surge barrier system would not

have to address the complex hydro geologic, built infrastructure and social infrastructure issues faced by the current dual purpose on land SIRR and RBD projects

• A 15-20 foot high Regional System could protect the Metro Area for the next 100 years, allowing for long term change

• Such a regional system would protect far more communities than the current SIRR and RBD projects for the same $20 billion cost, an amount less than a single $19 Billion Sandy type storm

Location of a Regional NY NJ Metro Storm Surge Barrier System

Growing Support for Surge Barrier Systems Internationally and in the United States

Existing Storm Surge Barriers in London, St Petersberg, Rotterdam (Built)

New Bedford MA, Providence RI and Stamford CT (Built)The New Orleans Storm Surge Barrier System (Expedited Construction Completed)The Galveston Houston Storm Surge Barrier System (Expedited

Study Just Approved)USACE NY NJ Regional Study (Possible Inclusion)

Local Sea Level Projects and Regional Storm Surge Solutions Should Be Combined

While the SIRR and RBD Projects made sense originally when there was no regional alternative, the challenges faced by these local projects together with their delay, underfunding and Phase I limitations, now strongly support the case for the design and construction of a combined local sea level rise system and a regional storm surge solution.

Only Key Assets such as power generation, tunnel and subway entrances, food distribution and hospitals that required local near term surge protection would remain as SIRR and RPD local projects.

Meeting the Challenge and Seizing the Opportunity of Sea Level Rise, Extreme Storms

and Aging Infrastructure

The Alternatives• Ignore the Reality of Scientific and Economic Data and Do Nothing

• Retreat from the Sea and Abandon Centuries of Coastal Investment

• Build Local Projects to Protect Only Selected Communities

• Combine Local Seal Level Projects with a Regional Surge Barrier System

“It is not the strongest, or even the most intelligent of the species that

survive, it is those that adapt to

change”

- Darwin