sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the arctic
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Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic . H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller * Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref, Nov 2013
Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic
H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller*
Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USAe-mail: [email protected]*Now at: USAID, Washington, D.C.
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• Website with more information: seaice.alaska.edu/gi• Key publication: see press brief materials at EGU web site
Sea-ice system services & ice use
• Broad definition of ice hazards based on disruption of ice services & threats to system integrity
• Slow onset– Climate regulation– Coastal protection– Geologic agent– Subsistence activities
• Rapid onset– Marine & coastal hazard– Transportation corridor– Platform
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C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref
Masterson
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• Summer ice less extensive
• Seas north of Alaska & Eastern Siberia have seen greatest change anywhere in Arctic
Large reductions in summer ice concentration (1979-2013)
NSIDC.org
September
Coastal Protection• Sea ice protects coasts
from waves & thermal subrosion of permafrost
• Alaska open water season extended by >1 wk/decade
• Increasing vulnerability of coast to fall storms
Coastal Erosion• Sea ice highly
effective sediment transport agent
• Ice export may balance input from erosion (?)
• More mobile ice & larger fetch increase entrainment & export
USGS Eicken et al., GRL, 2000
Risk: Exposure• Coastal &
offshore infrastructure
• Shipping routes• Fisheries• Local &
indigenous use: subsistence & transport
• Potential overlap of uses & hazardsseaice.alaska.edu/gi 5
Hazards & threats: Relevant sea-ice variables
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Photo: Craig George
Jacob Adams Crew Trail, 2008
Assessing the state of landfast ice
2008 Barrow Ice Trails
Druckenmiller et al., 2010
Key points• Evaluations of hazards
in an ice use context to capture impacts of sea-ice change on human activities and loss of services provided by ice cover
• Rapid change requires improved tracking & prediction of hazards
• Key ice parameters Hazards Index
• Preliminary hazards survey: Hazards & maritime activities in close proximity in many areas
• Observing programs for hazards assessments require sufficient spatial resolution & sampling of extreme features
seaice.alaska.edu/gi 8