se4all 02 global tracking framework
TRANSCRIPT
PROGRESS TOWARD
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015
What is the Global
Tracking Framework?
Global Tracking Framework measures progress
towards SE4AAll Goals
Title of Presentation 3
GTF
Coordinators:
Partners:
SE4All
2030
Goals
GTF 2015
Primary
Indicators
ENERGY
ACCESS
ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
100% access to
electricity and
clean cooking
Double rate of
improvement in
EE
Double
share of RE
in energy
mix
Percentage of
population with
electricity
connection /
using non-solid
fuels
Percentage of total
final energy
consumption from renewable
sources
Compound annual growth
rate of primary
energy supply /
GDP in PPP
Additional
analysis
Disaggregations by location, sector, fuels;
decomposition analysis for EE; investment flows,
data requirements
Ideal Metrics
Workable Solution
Available Data
Agenda for Improvement
Global Tracking Framework takes a pragmatic approach
balancing ideal metrics and data availability
Diverse technologies
for service delivery
Variable quality of electricity
supply
Illegal and secondary
connections
Community and
productive uses of
electricity
Percentage of population with an electricity connection based on surveys
A workable solution for tracking electrification
But we are working towards a better solution:
the multi-tier framework (MTF)
Ho
useh
old
Su
rve
ys
(DH
S,
MIC
, L
SM
S)
an
d
Cen
su
ses
WHO Cooking Database
Energy Access WB
Electrification Database
Nati
on
al
En
erg
y
Bala
nces
Energy Efficiency
IEA Energy Balances
UN Energy Balances
WDI , REN 21, IRENA, BNEF
Renewable Energy
Indicator Data Source Country Coverage (% of global population)
212
Countries
(100%)
193
Countries
(99%)
181
Countries
(98%)
Electrification Cooking Fuels
NOTE: IEA = International Energy Agency; UN = United Nations; REN 21 = Renewable Energy Network for
the 21st Century; IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency; BNEF = Bloomberg New Energy
Finance; WDI = World Development Indicators (World Bank); GDP= gross domestic product.
181
Countries
(98%)
Period
22 y
ears
(19
90-2
012)
Global Tracking Framework pools and standardizes data produced by national statistical agencies
LAC Results: 2010-2012
LAC has some of the
highest levels of
sustainable energy in
the world
LAC has near (but not completely) universal access to
electricity
Access to electricity, 2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 2012
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
96% 86%
LAC shows low levels of energy intensity,
compared to most other regions
Energy intensity by region, 2012
12
4,0 4,0 4,1 4,4
4,9 5,4 5,6 5,8
7,3 7,9
8,5
10,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
EUR NAF LAC SEA WAS SAS OSN NAR EAS SSA EEU CCA
MJ/U
SD
20
11
PP
P
LAC has the highest share of modern RE in the energy mix
13
5,8
15,2
23,1
9,4 7,9 8,8 9,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EAS EUR LAC NAR SAS SEA SSA
Pe
rcen
t o
f T
FE
C
Solid biofuels, trad.
Solid biofuels, mod.
Hydro
Biogas
Waste
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Liquid biofuels
Modern RE share
But… rapid
improvement is hard
from such a high
base
ENERGY ACCESS
LAC is near universal
electrification, but
progressing more
slowly in clean cooking
Electricity access rates have improved faster than those
for clean cooking
Access to electricity, 1990-2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 1990-2012
16
89,1 92,7
94,7 96,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Pe
rce
nt
71,3
80,5 84,9 85,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Pe
rce
nt
Of the 20 countries with the most people without electricity…
17
100 100 100 99 98 98 97 97 94 93 91 91 91 91 82 79 79 78 76
38
Arg
entina
Ch
ile
Bra
zil
Me
xic
o
Para
gu
ay
Do
min
ican
Re
pub
lic
Ecu
ado
r
Co
lom
bia
El S
alv
ador
Jam
aic
a
Peru
Pana
ma
Puert
o R
ico
Boliv
ia
Ho
ndu
ras
Guyan
a
Gua
tem
ala
Nic
ara
gua
St. V
ince
nt a
nd
the G
rena
din
es
Ha
itiA
ccess r
ate
2012
(
perc
ent)
5,8
0,6 1,5
0,1 1,2
0,0 0,2 0,3 1,7
0,6
6,2
3,0 3,0
10,3
2,2 2,5
0,2
4,9
0,8
4,0
Arg
en
tin
a
Chile
Bra
zil
Me
xic
o
Pa
rag
ua
y
Do
min
ica
nR
ep
ub
lic
Ecu
ad
or
Co
lom
bia
El S
alv
ad
or
Jam
aic
a
Pe
ru
Pa
nam
a
Pu
ert
o R
ico
Bo
livia
Hondura
s
Gu
ya
na
Gu
ate
ma
la
Nic
ara
gua
St.
Vin
cen
t a
nd
the
Gre
na
din
es
Ha
iti
Acce
ss r
ate
ch
an
ge
20
10
-2
01
2 (
pe
rce
nta
ge
po
ints
)
TOTAL: Many have very high access rates…
and many others are improving rapidly
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012
Of the 20 with the most people without access to non-solid fuels
18
99 96 94 94 94 93 93 91 88 86 85 85 79 76 65 58
49 46 37
8
Arg
enti
na
Ecu
ado
r
Bra
zil
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ven
ezu
ela,
RB
Cu
ba
Ch
ile
Do
min
ican
Rep
ub
lic
Jam
aica
Co
lom
bia
Pan
ama
Mex
ico
El S
alva
do
r
Bo
livia
Per
u
Par
agu
ay
Ho
nd
ura
s
Nic
arag
ua
Gu
atem
ala
Hai
ti
Acc
ess
rate
in 2
01
2 (p
erce
nt)
0,9 1,4
1,1 1,1
-0,5
0,5 0,9
1,5 1,8
0,7 0,6 0,3
2,9
1,8 1,9 1,5
0,9 1,5
-0,6
0,0
Arg
enti
na
Ecu
ado
r
Bra
zil
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ven
ezu
ela,
RB
Cu
ba
Ch
ile
Do
min
ican
Rep
ub
lic
Jam
aica
Co
lom
bia
Pan
ama
Mex
ico
El S
alva
do
r
Bo
livia
Per
u
Par
agu
ay
Ho
nd
ura
s
Nic
arag
ua
Gu
atem
ala
Hai
ti
Acc
ess
rate
per
cen
tage
po
int
chan
ge, 2
01
0-2
01
2
Access rates are somewhat lower…
…and progress somewhat slower
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
>100%
100% = annual rate of improvement needed to reach target by 2030.
LAC: Progress against target: Electrification
Access to electricity is on pace to meet target
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
74%
LAC: Progress against target: Clean cooking
2010-2012
Access to non-solid fuels increased at 74% of what would be needed to reach target
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Overall energy intensity is relatively low, but rate of
improvement is mixed
22
Only transport has seen sustained improvement in
energy intensity since 1990
Energy intensity, 1990-2012 CAGR of energy intensity, 2010-2012
-4,1
-1,4 -1,3
0,3
2,7
8,3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GJ/
ho
use
ho
ld
MJ/
20
11
USD
PP
P
Energy intensity
Transport Industrial Agricultural
Services Residential Primary
But industry improved markedly 2010-2012
Many have relatively low energy intensity
23
2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,8 3,1 3,1 3,9 3,9 3,9 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,5 6,0 6,1 6,1
10,5
20,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ener
gy In
ten
sity
in 2
01
2
(MJ/
$2
01
1)
-3,3
-4,5 -4,3
0,1
-1,1
0,8
-3,8 -3,6
-0,2
-2,6
-0,6
1,0
4,0
0,6 0,4 1,3
-4,0
1,6
-0,6
-2,0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
CA
GR
of
Ener
gy In
ten
sity
, 20
10
-2
01
2 (
per
cen
t)
And a number improved markedly (but others regressed)
Of the 20 countries with the greatest energy supply
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012
LAC Energy Intensity progress is mixed
Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010-2012
Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012
Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012
LAC: Progress against target: Energy Efficiency
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
30%
Energy intensity decreased at 30% of target rate from 2010-2012
RENEWABLE ENERGY
LAC has some of the highest RE shares in
the world, but increases are limited
Electricity: LAC has seen steady RE capacity additions since 1990, but falling shares of total capacity
Annual renewable capacity additions (bars) and renewables share of capacity (lines), 1990-2012
27
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Pe
rcen
t
GW
RE capacty addition
Geothermal
Solar
Biomass, Waste
Wind
Hydro
RE share of installed capacity
RE share of installed capacity excludinghydro
Many have very high RE shares
28
41,6 40,3 38,5 33,8
30,3
22,3 19,1 18,6 18,5
15,9 14,6 14,5 11,5 11,2 10,7 9,4 8,1 7,2 6,9
4,4
05
1015202530354045
Mo
der
n R
E sh
are
of
TFEC
, p
erce
nt
0,3
-2,7
-5,9
0,4
3,3
5,6
-0,7
1,6 0,5
1,9 1,4 1,7 2,1 1,8 0,9
-0,6 -0,3
0,2 0,2 0,2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Mo
der
n R
E an
nu
al in
crem
ent
20
10
-20
12
, p
erce
nt
Of the 20 countries with the highest energy consumption
But few are increasing rapidly
2010-2012 CHANGE:
TOTAL 2012
Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012
Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012
Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve between 2010-2012
Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share
LAC: Progress against target: Modern RE
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
18%
The share of modern RE in final energy consumption increased at
18% of what would be needed to reach target
Plans for 2017 GTF
Timeline GTF 2017
Data collection: August – December 2016
Data analysis and drafting October 2016 –January 2017
Target publication date: early April 2017
• To build a closer link to countries, the five UN Regional Economic Commissions will join Global Tracking Framework 2017
• Proposals are to Build in country workshops at regional level Produce regional chapters/reports Conduct regional dissemination Set regional capacity building agendas
LAC report coordinated by ECLAC
Plans for 2017: Regional Reports
Global Tracking Framework 2017 will involve more dialogue with countries around data processing
For more information on the report,
please go to:
trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org
#endenergypoverty
Annual investment needs range from
$49-85 billion
Electricity
access
Providing at minimum universal
Tier I/III/V electricity access to Sub-Saharan Africa’s population
Source: results from AIM model
Energy
efficiency
Significantly reducing energy
intensity in Africa
Source: WEO 450
Renewable
energy
Doubling Africa’s share of RE
in TFEC
Source: IRENA REmap
Annual investment needs very much depend on
the level of ambition for energy access
1
$Billion/year
36 8
37
3
1
Tier
5
12
4
2
20
7
LAC
Global
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%60%
Global Electricity
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%60%
Global Electricity
70%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%34%
Global: NSF
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
25% 20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%34%
Global: NSF
Global: EE
50%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
Global: EE
50%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%64%
Global: Modern Renewable Energy
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%41
%
Global: RE
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%
20%
0% 100%
80%
40% 60%54% 41
%
Access
LAC ELE/NSF: Access deficit
Electricity access deficit (millions of people)
Non-solid fuel access
deficit (millions of people) 49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2012
Mill
ion p
eo
ple
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2012
Mill
ion p
eo
ple
Average annual increase in
electrified population
2010-2012
Average annual
population increase
2010-2012
14.5 million 9.9 million 10.6 million
Average annual increase
in population with access
to non-solid fuels
2010-2012
LAC ELE/NSF: 2010-2012
Average annual increase in
electrified population
2010-2012
Average annual
population increase
2010-2012
14.5 million 9.9 million
10.6 million
Average annual increase
in population with access
to non-solid fuels
2010-2012
11.5 million 14.5 million
Electricity access rates have improved faster than those
for clean cooking
Diverse technologies
for service delivery
Variable quality of electricity
supply
Illegal and secondary
connections
Community and
productive uses of
electricity
Percentage of population with an electricity connection based on surveys
A workable solution for tracking electrification
A workable solution for energy efficiency
Improvement in primary energy intensity (Compound annual growth rate of primary energy supply /
GDP in PPP)
Energy efficiency is the ratio of
energy input to physical output
Physical output can
only be measured
by proxy as GDP
Standard GDP
measures understate developing
country output
Final energy consumption
overlooks waste in energy
production
Global measurement only possible at the national
level
A workable solution for renewable energy
Percentage of total final energy consumption
from renewable sources
Renewable energies are
those replenished more rapidly than they are
consumed
Sustainability also critical, but hard to
gauge
(e.g. biomass)
Renewable energies are
not affected by combustion inefficiency
Electrification
Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012
Most LAC countries making steady progress on electrification
Progress on access to non-solid fuels mixed
Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012
Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012
Cook stove and fuel together
determine performance
Adherence to standards of
use and maintenance
Use of multiple
solutions in the same
household
Availability, affordability, convenience,
cultural fit
Percentage of population making primary use of non-solid fuels based on surveys
A workable solution for tracking clean cooking
Cook stove and fuel together
determine performance
Adherence to standards of
use and maintenance
Use of multiple
solutions in the same
household
Availability, affordability, convenience,
cultural fit
Percentage of population making primary use of clean fuels and technologies
A workable solution for tracking clean cooking
59
Tier Calculation: Household Electricity Supply