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Scripps Inst. of OceanographyUniversity of California at San Diego

Oakland, California, October 18, 2013

V. Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego, October 21, 2013. ICAMP Inaugural Session

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Los Angeles Civic Center masked by smog in 1948

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times photographic archive, UCLA Library

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In 1967, California’s Legislature established the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

CARB has worked with the public, the business sector, and local governments to find solutions to California’s air pollution problem.

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

A New International Study was released this year (Sponsored by WHO):

Lin et al, LANCET, 2013

Air Pollution is a Major Killer

Ambient particulate matter pollution accounted for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million) premature deaths every year

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Premature mortality due to PM2.5.

Dark brown regions experience more than 1000 deaths per 1000 square kilometers.

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NASA Earth Observatory, 2013.

SCIENCE INFORMING POLICYThree year, Multi-Institution study

• University of California at San Diego

• University of California at Berkeley

• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

• Pacific Northwest National Laboratories

LEAD Investigator: V. Ramanathan

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http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=64841

How Has California’s air quality Changed with time?

Black Carbon (BC): Product of Incomplete Combustion

• The major component of PM from the Diesel Transportation Sector• About 75% of PM from Diesel Mobile sources is BC• The second largest contributor to global warming• Contributes directly to melting of snow packs, glaciers, and sea ice

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Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

Black Carbon Trends in California: Detection

Mostly Urban sites

Remote sites

8Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

9Source: Bahadur et al, 2010 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

Statewide BC Trends in California-Annual Mean(Remote Sites)

40 Years of Progress on Diesel Soot

Source: Kirchstetter et al. (2011) 10Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

Air pollution reduced 75-90% despite growthReproduced from: B. Croes, 2013 (CARB)

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CarbonMonoxide

NitrogenOxide

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Population Number of Vehicles

VehicleMiles

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Ozone – Los Angeles peak cut over 70%, hours of exposure reduced 90%PM10 – annual-average levels cut 75% Air toxics – over 80% cancer risk reduction (since 1989)

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The important lesson to be learned is that cleaning up the air does not necessarily deter development

The Co-Benefits are Huge

Co-Benefit of Diesel Black Carbon Reduction To Climate Change Mitigation

The reduction in diesel BC emissions from 1989 to 2008, is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 21 (to 50) million metric tons annually

13Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

California’s CO2 emission (2009 ): 393 MMT/Yr

However, simultaneous mitigation of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is essential to limit global warming below 2oC.

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Reduction in Ozone (smog):

• Should have reduced crop loss caused by high Ozone concentrations

• Should have mitigated climate change sinceOzone is a powerful greenhouse gas

Co-Benefits from Ozone precursor Reduction

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• to examine how California achieved these impressive gains in air pollution without compromising development;

• Evaluate the nature and magnitude of scientific, technological and organizational infrastructure and policy initiatives that are required for India to make similar progress in the coming decades.

Why Are We Assembled Here

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India’s transportation sector is experiencing impressive growth. The number of vehicles has grown from about 20 million in 1991 to about 140 million in 2011.

Air pollution has become a major problem. WHO estimates700,000 deaths each year attributed to air pollution. In cities like Bangalore the transportation sector contributes more than 50% to PM2.5 (as of 2011), nearly the same as in California.

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What would it take to accomplish similar improvements in air quality of mega cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi, Kolkatta and Chennai within the next 30 years, without impeding the economic development of India?

November 14 2006 December 21 2001

Finally, promoting action regionally and internationally that reduces climate change risks and expands clean energy industries and green jobs is a high priority.

Climate Action Team Report

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California’s successful policies for reducing BC based on targeted Science should serve as a Knowledge to Action example for the World

If California’s black carbon reduction from diesel can be replicated globally, the projected global warming for the coming decades can be mitigated by about 10 to15 percent*, slow down glacier melt and sea ice retreat in addition to protecting lives and crops.

*based on estimates using the Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010 study

My Personal Commentary