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Morning News Call - EMEA

Morning News Call - EMEA, May 13 - RTRS

12-May-2013 23:35

MARKET VIEW Financial spreadbetters expect Britain's FTSE 100 to open around 5 points lower, or down 0.08 percent, Germany's DAX unchanged to up 1 point, and France's CAC 40 to open 6 to 7 points higher, or up 0.18 percent.

Oil and gold prices fell as the dollar strengthened, dragging Asian shares lower, but Japanese equities outperformed on the back of the yen's slide to a fresh 4-1/2-year low against the U.S. currency.

Brent futures slipped towards $103 a barrel as the dollar stayed firm, with renewed worries of a slowdown in demand growth from the world's top oil consumer the United States further weighing on sentiment.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT AS OF 0515 GMT S&P 500 Index Futures: 1,625.10; down 0.28%; down 4.50 DJIA Futures: 15,040.00; down 0.22%; down 28.00 Nikkei: 14,747.29; up 0.96%; up 139.75 MSCI Asia, Ex-JP: 481.26; down 0.72%; down 3.51 EUR/USD: 1.2978; down 0.14%; down 0.0017 USD/JPY: 101.70; up 0.16%; up 0.17 Spot Gold: $1,432.94; down 1.02 %; down $4.76 US Crude: $95.23; down 0.82%; down $0.81 10-Yr US Treasury Yield: 1.9269%; up 0.0280 10-Yr Bund Yield: 1.3780%; down 0.0060

GLOBAL TOP NEWS Group of Seven finance officials agreed on Saturday to redouble efforts to deal with failing banks and gave a green light to Japan's drive to galvanise its economy.

China's decision to ease a boycott of some $11 billion in Airbus jet orders followed a high-level appeal from the planemaker urging Beijing to recognise its support over a trade row with Europe, a letter seen by Reuters shows.

Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta took his ministers to a conference centre in a former abbey in Tuscany for a retreat on Sunday to thrash out differences that have already threatened the stability of his fragile coalition.

EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS

Italian power company Enel has reached a deal on early retirement for almost 10 percent of its domestic workforce, the largest agreement of its kind since the government overhauled Italy's pension rules, a labour union source said.

Glencore Xstrata will stop work on a planned 35 million tonnes per annum coal export terminal on Australia's Balaclava Island as a result of poor coal market conditions, the company said.

British oil company BP said it is withdrawing some non-essential staff from Libya after Britain's government warned about deteriorating security in the capital Tripoli.

COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS Belgium Solvay SA Q1 Italy Davide Campari Milano SPA Q1 Italy Unione Di Banche Italiane SCPA Q1 Sweden Hexagon AB Q1 Switzerland PSP Swiss Property AG Q1 UK Bioquell AGM UK Centrica AGM, Trading UK Diploma Analyst UK DRS Data and Research Services Trading, AGM UK Dignity Q1 Trade UK Fiberweb AGM UK Interserve S/Holders, Trading UK Johnston Press Confcall UK Lonmin Q2 Output UK Microgen AGM UK The Unite Group Confcall UK Velti Q1, Confcall

ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT) 0715 - Swiss Retail Sales for March

Retail Sales: Forecast 0.8 pct Prior 2.4 pct 0800 - Germany's Wolfgang Schaeuble to give speech 1230 - U.S. Retail Sales for April

Retail Sales mm: Forecast -0.3 pct Prior -0.4 pct

Retail Sales Ex-auto mm: Forecast -0.1 pct Prior -0.4 pct 1330 - Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds media call 1400 - U.S. Business Inventories for March

Business Inventories: Forecast 0.3 pct Prior 0.1 pct 2301 - UK RICS housing survey for April

RICS house price: Forecast 2 Prior -1

DEBT AUCTIONS France - BTF treasury notes Italy - Medium-long term auction

Foreign Exchange Polls 4 of 18 pages

Sterling Report

Sterling firmer against euro, but lags buoyant dollar EURGBP= GBP= GBPX1= - RTRS 13-May-2013 07:29

LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - Sterling rose against the euro on Monday, after a senior European Central Bank policymaker said a cut in euro deposit rates to negative could be considered if the euro zone economy deteriorated.

A cut in the deposit rate - the rate at which the banks park their excess funds with the ECB, currently at zero - to negative could make holding euros less attractive to most investors and lead to a sell-off, traders said.

ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco was quoted as saying the ECB could take its deposit rate below zero to help the ailing euro zone economy, joining others including ECB President Mario Draghi who have flagged such a prospect. (Full Story)

In contrast, a recent pick-up in activity in the British economy has lessened the chances of more monetary easing or asset purchases, in the near term by the Bank of England (BoE).

The euro EURGBP=D4 was down 0.2 percent at 84.45 pence, not far from a near four-month low in late April of 83.98 pence.

"Visco's comments pushed the euro down," said a spot trader at a London-based currency brokerage house. "With the BoE expected to be on hold for now, euro/sterling could go lower."

Attention now turns to BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report, where it is expected the central bank will note easing price pressures, the recent pick-up in economic activity and possibly signal further monetary easing is not imminent. (Full Story)

But the pound fell against the dollar which is gaining ground on expectations the Federal Reserve may slow its asset purchases programme. The dollar .DXY rose after better-than-expected retail sales data bolstered expectations of a good showing by the U.S. economy in the second quarter ECONUS

Sterling was slightly lower against the dollar GBP=D4 at $1.5355, with long term investors cited as sellers. Near-term support lay at its 55-day moving average of $1.5244.

Sterling has gained from a 2-1/2-year early-March low of $1.4832 amid signs of a pick-up in economic activity in Britain, but most are cautious about adding bets in favour of the pound given the U.S. economy's relative outperformance.

"We see sterling/dollar as a sell on rallies towards $1.54-1.55 with the pair likely to trade into a lower $1.40-1.50 range this year if the U.S. economic outlook re-accelerates in the second quarter of 2013," said UBS head of currency strategy, Mansoor Mohiuddin.

 

(Reporting by Anirban Nag; Editing by Louise Ireland, Ron Askew) ((anirban.nag@thomsonreuters.com)(+442075428399)(anirban.nag.th omsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

FX Markets Open – Asia 1 of 2 pages & Europe 1 of 2 pages

FX Markets Open – U.S. 1 of 2 pages

Foreign Exchange Analysis & Insight

13-May-2013 07:29

ANALYSIS

QE and yen-inspired ructions in store, even if no currency war

Most investors see the yen's latest lunge as a byproduct of the rich world's money printing gambit and not a deliberate escalation in a notional currency war, but it is raising concerns about possible new ructions.

Aussie dlr to hold above parity, NZD seen resilient

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were expected to remain well supported in the months ahead, aided by a lack of high yielding options, even as the Reserve Bank of Australia resumed cutting interest rates.

How Singapore's currency club fell apart

Mukesh Kumar Chhaganlal said he tried to warn his manager at UBS AG about the "increasingly unrealistic" currency rates being set last year for the Indonesian rupiah against the dollar.

Euro vulnerable to hard core softening

If, as widely expected, the European Central Bank cuts its benchmark interest rate on Thursday, it will be as much for the fragile core of the euro zone as for the debt-plagued peripheral economies.

REUTERS GLOBAL FX SUMMIT

Expect yen volatility with more weakness ahead

The yen has mostly lost its luster given recent changes in Japanese monetary policy, and even volatility in the near term will not detract from the currency continuing to lose ground in months ahead, market analysts and money managers said on Monday.

Euro 'cursed' to go higher - Merk CIO

With the European Central Bank refraining from conducting a massive bond buying program as other central banks have done, the euro is "cursed" to go higher, Axel Merk, the president and CIO of Merk Investments said at a Reuters FX Summit on Monday.

Mellon avoids pound, likes U.S., Canadian dollars

The British pound is the worst of developed currencies because of low growth and above-target inflation, Vassilis Dagioglu, head of asset allocation portfolio management at Mellon Capital, said at the Reuters FX Summit on Monday.

Nomura sees 2013 as a good year for FX volumes

A strong start to foreign exchange trading volumes in 2013 is likely to be sustained, but banks must beef up their electronic trading platforms to reap the most benefit, Nomura's global head of foreign exchange said on Monday.

CME FX volumes jump on return of volatility, yen swings

CME Group is seeing record volumes in futures involving the Japanese yen, spurred by rising volatility in currency markets and the yen's sharp swings this year, the head of the exchange's currency and interest rate products told Reuters.

INSIGHT

How Singapore's currency club fell apart

Mukesh Kumar Chhaganlal said he tried to warn his manager at UBS AG about the "increasingly unrealistic" currency rates being set last year for the Indonesian rupiah against the dollar.

COLUMNS

Whatever ECB does, more reason to sell euro than buy

Whatever the European Central Bank (ECB) decides on Thursday, growing evidence of global economic fragility should ultimately lead investors towards the safety and security of dollar-denominated assets.

Euro vulnerable to hard core softening

If, as widely expected, the European Central Bank cuts its benchmark interest rate on Thursday, it will be as much for the fragile core of the euro zone as for the debt-plagued peripheral economies.

Swiss franc may slip vs Czech crown as ECB cut looms

Selling the Swiss franc against the Czech crown might offer some value, with pressure growing on the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates.

Yuan not immune to China's long-term challenges

Most traders would probably see the path of the Chinese yuan as one of generally uninterrupted appreciation against the dollar but that may not be the case from here on.

DIARY - Day ahead in the FX and debt markets - RTRS

13-May-2013 03:54

This is a summary of key events likely to affect trading in the foreign exchange and debt markets. All times GMT: -

Diary for IMF/World Bank meeting IMF/DIARY

Top FX News: (Full Story)

Top Fixed Income News: (Full Story)

Top Macroeconomic News: (Full Story)

European equities: (Full Story)

U.S. equities: (Full Story)

FX Quotes: NFX= Treasury yields: RTRTSY1

World bourses: .N225 .FTSE .FTEU3 SPc1 .DJI

For full slate of G7 economic data ECONG7

------------------------------------------------------------

MONDAY, MAY 13:

 1230 - U.S. RETAIL SALES FOR APRIL Commerce Dept. releases April retail sales. Economists in a Reuters survey expect a 0.3 percent drop compared with a 0.4 percent decrease in March. Excluding automobiles, sales are expected to fall 0.1 percent versus a 0.4 percent drop in March.

 1330 - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK HOLDS MEDIA CALL Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds media call to discuss "Small Business Credit Survey" on the performance, financing decisions and credit experiences of small businesses in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.

 1400 - U.S. BUSINESS INVESTORS FOR MARCH U.S. Commerce Dept. issues Business Inventories for March. Economists in a Reuters survey expect a rise of 0.3 percent versus a 0.1 percent rise in the prior month.

 2145 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL SALES VOLUMES FOR Q1 Retail sales volumes for Q1 is expected to rise 0.8 percent compared to 2.1 percent in previous quarter.

 2301 - UK RICS HOUSING SURVEY FOR APRIL Forecast to show a reading of 1, compared with -1 prior.

  

DEBT AUCTIONS

WASHINGTON - Treasury Dept. announces weekly sale of 4- week bills, 1500 GMT; holds weekly sale 3-, 6-month bills, 1530 GMT.

 

 

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