Scott's 2013-2014 Winter Forecast !

It’s like looking into a crystal ball…

Seriously though; getting the forecast to verify seven days out is hard enough….why would we want to forecast for a whole season?!?!

El Nino or La Nina? -2011

Warmer than normal water

Cooler than normal water

Looks like a La Nina to me!

Typical La Nina Pattern

El Nino or La Nina? -2012

Warmer than normal water

Cooler than normal water

Looks more like an El Nino pattern

Typical El Nino Pattern

El Nino or La Nina? -2013

Trending warmer than normal

Trending cooler than normal

El Nino or La Nina? -2013

So what are we in (or going into)?

It looks like......

Neutral (“La Nada”) Weak La Nina

What is the PDO? Pacific Decadal Oscillation An index derived from Northern Pacific sea

surface temperature anomalies. Negative PDO brings a trough into western

North America and a ridge across eastern North America

Helps determine El Nino/La Nina(-PDO: El Nino weaker, La Nina stronger; +PDO: El Nino stronger and longer lasting, La Nina weaker)

Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2011

A -PDO helps strengthen La Nina

Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2012

Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2013

(TRENDING)

Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2011)

Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2012)

Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2013)

Almost a carbon copyof 2012!

North Atlantic Oscillation(“The Wildcard”)

North Atlantic Oscillation(“The Wildcard”)

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Courtesy: Hazardous Weather Prediction Center (http://www.hwpcwx.org/)

Analog Years

1989-1990 (Neutral) 1996-1997 (Weak La Nina) 2001-2002 (Neutral) 2008-2009 (Weak La Nina) 2012-2013 (Neutral Weak La Nina)

About the analog years

1989-1990: Little snow; Top 10 least snowiest Winters at JFK (Kocin and Uccellini’s NE Snowstorms, Vol II)

1996-1997: Little snows with biggest snowfall (N&W) in Late March

2001-2002: Mild Winter

2008-2009: Early season snow, big snowstorm in March

2012-2013: Early season snow along NJ coast in November; stayed cold, but dry until February 8th with huge snows across NYC, LI, New England

Central Park Snowfall (analog years vs. average)

SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL

• 1989-90 0 0 0 0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 0 0 13.4

• 1996-97 0 0 0 0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 0 0 10.0

• 2001-02 0 0 0 0 0 T 3.5 T T T 0 0 3.5 • 2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6

• 2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1 AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.8 8.0 9.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 26.7 (1981-2011)

Philly Snowfall(analog years vs average)

SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL

AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 7.1 8.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 22.7

(1981-2011)

Atlantic City Snowfall(analog years vs average)

SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL

AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6 4.7 6.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.8

(1981-2011)

Other selected cities avg. snowfall(1981-2011)

Newark Liberty Int’l Airport(KEWR)Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4 8.9 9.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 29.5”

Islip NY(KISP)Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg.0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.1 8.0 6.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 25.3”

Wilmington DE(KILG-New Castle County Airport)Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg.

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.0 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 21.2”

Allentown PA(KABE-Lehigh Valley Int’l Airport)Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg.0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.6 10.5 11.3 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 33.9”

Temperature anomalies- December

Temperature anomalies- January

Temperature anomalies- February

Precipitation anomalies- December

Precipitation anomalies- January

Precipitation anomalies- February

What do the maps mean then?

• Temperatures for Central Park(1981-2010 avg):• Dec Avg: 37.5 F • (My outlook: +0.5)• Jan Avg: 32.6 F• (My outlook: +2.0)• Feb Avg: 35.3 F• (My outlook: +3.0)

What do the maps mean then?

• Liquid Precipitation for Central Park(1981-2010 avg):

• Dec: 4.00” • (Outlook: +0.50”)• Jan: 3.65”• (Outlook: 0.00”)• Feb: 3.09”• (Outlook: -1.50”)

What do the maps mean then?

• Temperatures for Philly Int’l(1981-2010 avg):

• Dec Avg: 37.4 F • (My outlook: 0.0)• Jan Avg: 32.9 F• (My outlook: +2.0)• Feb Avg: 35.6 F• (My outlook: +3.5)

What do the maps mean then?

• Liquid Precipitation for Philly Int’l(1981-2010 avg):

• Dec: 3.55” • (Outlook +0.50”)• Jan: 3.03”• (Outlook: 0.00”)• Feb: 2.64”• (Outlook: -1.50”)

What do the maps mean then?

• Temperatures for Atlantic City(1981-2010 avg):

• Dec Avg: 37.0 F • (My outlook: +1.0)• Jan Avg: 32.8 F• (My outlook: +2.0)• Feb Avg: 35.1 F• (My outlook: +3.0)

What do the maps mean then?

• Liquid Precipitation for Atlantic City(1981-2010 avg):

• Dec: 3.68” • (Outlook: +1.00”)• Jan: 3.28”• (Outlook: 0.00”)• Feb: 2.87”• (Outlook -1.00”)

So what are my thoughts about snowfall this Winter?

• Average snowfall north of I-78, I-80, and

I-84(elevation, colder air in place)

• Slightly below average to average snowfall along I-95 corridor

• Below average snowfall along the coast (mixing issues, warm ocean temps)

So what are my thoughts about snowfall this Winter?

• Best snowfall chances in December (analog years show overall average monthly temps and above average precipitation)

• A -NAO can throw a curve ball and with cold air in place there could be one or two big snow storms (coastal storm with 6-12”+); -AO and +PNA can also funnel in colder air and lock it in for a long period

• These are just MY thoughts and should NOT be taken to the bank!

My snowfall prediction for the Winter

Want to find out more this Winter?

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