scott goldsmith - alaska's economic future; what role for a north slope natural gas pipeline
DESCRIPTION
ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE?TRANSCRIPT
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ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE
NATURAL GAS PIPELINE?
Scott GoldsmithProfessor of Economics
Institute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of Alaska Anchorage
May 10, 2011Public Forum on the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
Sponsored by the Federal CoordinatorAnchorage, Alaska
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PETROLEUM DRIVES THE ECONOMY
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PETROLEUM TOURISM
•Jobs
•Complexity
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HOW TO GET $5 BILLION IN STATE REVENUE FROM OTHER SOURCES
$3,333 / TOURIST
$6,667 / OZ. GOLD
$33 / SALMON
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OUR ECONOMIC FORTUNES ARE TIED TO PETROLEUM (MMBPD)
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COULD THE FUTURE ALASKA ECONOMY LOOK LIKE THIS?
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THE NON-PETROLEUM STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE
• Natural Resource Development
• Value Added Processing
• Economic Diversification
• Infrastructure Investments in Power
and Transportation
• Footloose Industry
• Renewable Energy
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DOES PETROLEUM HAVE A FUTURE IN ALASKA?
Oil (Billion Barrels)
Gas (TCF)
PRODUCTION TO DATE 16 -KNOWN STATE: Colville-Canning 4.5 37.5TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE 33.6 148.8
ANWR 1002 10.3 3.8OCS Beaufort 6.9 32.1OCS Chukchi 15.5 60.1NPRA .9 52.8
OTHER ? ?
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PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION JOBS: BOOM AND BUST
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EMPLOYMENT IN THE OIL PATCH
TOTALBarrels per Worker
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EMPLOYMENT IMPACT:BEYOND CONSTRUCTION
• KNOWN GAS
• NEW EXPLORATION
• OIL PRODUCTION AND
DISCOVERIES
• COST OF OPERATING IN OIL
PATCH
• OUTSIDE THE OIL PATCH
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Source: IEA, AEO 2011.
GAS PRICE PROJECTION
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GAS REVENUE PROJECTION (Billion)
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$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
2001 / 2021 2003 / 2023 2005 / 2025 2007 / 2027 2009 / 2029
GAS (2021-2030) OIL (2001-2010)
GAS VS OIL REVENUES (Million)
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•ANWR
•OCS
•NPRA
•Unconventional Oil
REVENUE FROM OTHER OIL
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STATE GF REVENUE PROJECTION
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STATE GF: USE OF SAVINGS
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STATE GF WITH GAS REVENUE
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STATE GF: BALANCED SOLUTION
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PERMANENT FUND
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ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE
NATURAL GAS PIPELINE?
Scott GoldsmithProfessor of Economics
Institute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of Alaska Anchorage
May 10, 2011Public Forum on the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
Sponsored by the Federal CoordinatorAnchorage, Alaska