This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Navigating a Stormy MarketScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012

David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner

david.mitchell@gartner.com

Data Centres and Cloud

Application Development

IT Services

eCommerce

Social

Data Management

Data Centres and Cloud

By 2015, 40% of net new business

process services will be delivered as

business process as a service (BPaaS).

Frances Karamouzis

By 2015, 40% of the most successful

CIOs will use cloud sourcing to cut

costs and generate new revenue in

order to outperform competitors.

Claudio Da Rold

By 2015, the cloud will propel

enterprises back to a best-of-breed

mind-set for innovating and

differentiating the ERP.

Jim Shepherd

Through 2014, at least 50% of SaaS

customers will experience higher

than expected costs.

Robert DeSisto

By 2015, 40% of net new business

process services will be delivered as

business process as a service (BPaaS).

Frances Karamouzis

By 2015, 40% of the most successful

CIOs will use cloud sourcing to cut

costs and generate new revenue in

order to outperform competitors.

Claudio Da Rold

By 2015, the cloud will propel

enterprises back to a best-of-breed

mind-set for innovating and

differentiating the ERP.

Jim Shepherd

Through 2014, at least 50% of SaaS

customers will experience higher

than expected costs.

Robert DeSisto

Data Centres and Cloud

Through 2013, 60% of enterprise IT

public cloud adoption projects

will involve the redeployment of

unchanged applications to IaaS

or backward- compatible PaaS.

Yefim Natis

By 2013, at least 20% of

organizations using SaaS deployments

will move them back on-premises.

Sharon Mertz

By 2015, 30% of midsize

businesses will adopt recovery-in-the-cloud services

to support IT operations recovery.

John Morency

By 2016, due to cloud computing,

75% of IT organizations

without better IT demand

management will end up spending

more on IT.

Kurt Potter, Barbara Gomolski

By 2015, 40% of net new business

process services will be delivered as

business process as a service (BPaaS).

Frances Karamouzis

By 2015, 40% of the most successful

CIOs will use cloud sourcing to cut

costs and generate new revenue in

order to outperform competitors.

Claudio Da Rold

By 2015, the cloud will propel

enterprises back to a best-of-breed

mind-set for innovating and

differentiating the ERP.

Jim Shepherd

Through 2014, at least 50% of SaaS

customers will experience higher

than expected costs.

Robert DeSisto

Data Centres and Cloud

Through 2013, 60% of enterprise IT

public cloud adoption projects

will involve the redeployment of

unchanged applications to IaaS

or backward- compatible PaaS.

Yefim Natis

By 2013, at least 20% of

organizations using SaaS deployments

will move them back on-premises.

Sharon Mertz

By 2015, 30% of midsize

businesses will adopt recovery-in-the-cloud services

to support IT operations recovery.

John Morency

By 2016, due to cloud computing,

75% of IT organizations

without better IT demand

management will end up spending

more on IT.

Kurt Potter, Barbara Gomolski

Cloud adoption in Europe will be

delayed by at least two years, due to

the fragmentation of regulations and privacy rules.

Paolo Malinverno

By 2015, 30% of infrastructure as a

service (IaaS) providers will lose the price war and exit the market.

Frank Ridder

By 2016, 50% of organizations will

source their UC on a utility subscription model, up from less

than 5% today.

Steve Blood

Scottish implications

• Cloud opportunities may be delayed by 2 years due to regulation

• Cloud will generate highly variable business outcomes

• Many applications will be deployed unchanged, with a reduced opportunity for re-platform/re-development projects

• Cloud providers need to be wary of the rush to the bottom in IaaS

6

Application Development

Through 2020, attempts to displace browser JavaScript

with proprietary client-side Web programming

languages will fail.

Eric Knipp

By 2014, in new websites targeted to mobile devices, the

use of wrapped HTML will have at least 10 times the

growth rate of Adobe Flash and

Microsoft Silverlight.

Gene Phifer

Through 2016, organizations will continue to spend

more of their IT budget on application

integration than on building new applications.

Yefim Natis

By 2014, 30 of the most popular 100 Web applications will work online or

off.

Tom Austin

Application Development

Through 2020, attempts to displace browser JavaScript

with proprietary client-side Web programming

languages will fail.

Eric Knipp

By 2014, in new websites targeted to mobile devices, the

use of wrapped HTML will have at least 10 times the

growth rate of Adobe Flash and

Microsoft Silverlight.

Gene Phifer

Through 2016, organizations will continue to spend

more of their IT budget on application

integration than on building new applications.

Yefim Natis

By 2014, 30 of the most popular 100 Web applications will work online or

off.

Tom Austin

By 2015, 50% of business

applications use by managers and

casual users will be via mobile devices.

Christian Hestermann

By 2014, more than 65% of user-

developed cloud applications will

employ advanced IMC technology to

meet QoS requirements.

Massimo Pezzini

By 2015, up to 15% of user identities will be partly vetted and authenticated using

mobile location services, up from

less than 1% today.

Avivah Litan

By year-end 2013, 75% of new

business applications will

incorporate social user styles,

conventions and information feeds

for the user experience.

Jenny Sussin

Application DevelopmentApplication Development

Through 2020, attempts to displace browser JavaScript

with proprietary client-side Web programming

languages will fail.

Eric Knipp

By 2014, in new websites targeted to mobile devices, the

use of wrapped HTML will have at least 10 times the

growth rate of Adobe Flash and

Microsoft Silverlight.

Gene Phifer

Through 2016, organizations will continue to spend

more of their IT budget on application

integration than on building new applications.

Yefim Natis

By 2014, 30 of the most popular 100 Web applications will work online or

off.

Tom Austin

By 2015, 50% of business

applications use by managers and

casual users will be via mobile devices.

Christian Hestermann

By 2014, more than 65% of user-

developed cloud applications will

employ advanced IMC technology to

meet QoS requirements.

Massimo Pezzini

By 2015, up to 15% of user identities will be partly vetted and authenticated using

mobile location services, up from

less than 1% today.

Avivah Litan

By year-end 2013, 75% of new

business applications will

incorporate social user styles,

conventions and information feeds

for the user experience.

Jenny Sussin

By 2016, most collaboration

applications will be equally available on

desktops, mobile phones, tablets and

browsers.

Monica Basso

By 2015, 30% of users accessing

enterprise networks or high-value Web applications from smartphones or tablets will use

biometric authentication.

Ant Allan

By 2015, more than 70% of new sales

application projects will be SaaS.

Robert DeSisto

In 2015, more than half of new business

applications will leverage event

streams to improve situation awareness

and decision effectiveness.

Roy Schulte

Scottish implications

• Applications will need to work offline and online

• Applications will increasingly adopt social techniques within them

• Application and platform security methods are rapidly evolving

• Event-stream processing and in-memory technology are technologies to watch

10

IT Services

By 2016, 50% of new integration

projects will involve on-premises

applications, e-commerce trading partners and cloud

services.

Benoit Lheureux

By 2015, adoption of "as a service"

models will replace 15% of low-cost,

competitive-parity-driven outsourcing

deals.

Frances Karamouzis and Jim Longwood

By 2015, 25% of midsize businesses in mature markets will virtualize one-third of their PCs, over double the large-enterprise

rate.

Jim Browning and Mika Kitagawa

By 2015, 80% of IT organizations will reach resource breaking points, under intense

pressure to deliver the right project resources just in

time.

Donna Fitzgerald et al

By 2016, 50% of new integration

projects will involve on-premises

applications, e-commerce trading partners and cloud

services.

Benoit Lheureux

By 2015, adoption of "as a service"

models will replace 15% of low-cost,

competitive-parity-driven outsourcing

deals.

Frances Karamouzis and Jim Longwood

By 2015, 25% of midsize businesses in mature markets will virtualize one-third of their PCs, over double the large-enterprise

rate.

Jim Browning and Mika Kitagawa

By 2015, 80% of IT organizations will reach resource breaking points, under intense

pressure to deliver the right project resources just in

time.

Donna Fitzgerald et al

IT Services

By 2016, most collaboration

applications will be equally available on

desktops, mobile phones, tablets and

browsers.

Monica Basso

By 2015, 20% of the market-leading IT service providers not investing in industrialization

through demonstrated

nonlinear revenue will be at risk.

Sandra Notardonato and Claudio Da

Rold

By 2016, 20% of IT organizations in

growth enterprises will set a goal of increasing grow-and-transform IT

spending to 50% of their annual

expenditures.

Kurt Potter, Barbara Gomolski

Through 2015, security incidents

will increase 25% or more in

organizations that adopt BYOD without reinvesting at least

one-third of the savings in security.

Lawrence Orans and John Pescatore

Scottish implications

• Beware of margin crunch and XaaS substitution effect

• Reliance on labor-based models is risky; industrialization and automation

• Resource constraints in customers may become an impediment to new business

13

eCommerce

By year-end 2012, more than 50% of greenfield social

commerce initiatives will fail to drive

sales beyond what had been obtained

from existing e-commerce activities.

Praveen Sengar

By 2014, customer fallout will drive down customer

satisfaction in 70% of organizations that

shift customer support to

communities.

Jenny Sussin and Carol Rozwell

By 2015, 50% of online customer

self-service search activities will be via

a VA for at least 1,500 large enterprises.

Johan Jacobs

By 2015, the marketing budget

allocated to retaining customers

and increasing loyalty through

customer service will more than

double.

Kimberly Collins and Jenny Sussin

eCommerce

By year-end 2012, more than 50% of greenfield social

commerce initiatives will fail to drive sales beyond

what had been obtained from

existing e-commerce activities.

Praveen Sengar

By 2014, customer fallout will drive down customer

satisfaction in 70% of organizations that

shift customer support to

communities.

Jenny Sussin and Carol Rozwell

By 2015, 50% of online customer

self-service search activities will be via

a VA for at least 1,500 large enterprises.

Johan Jacobs

By 2015, the marketing budget

allocated to retaining customers

and increasing loyalty through

customer service will more than

double.

Kimberly Collins and Jenny Sussin

By 2014, refusing to communicate with

customers via social channels will be as harmful as ignoring

emails or phone calls is today.

Jeffrey Mann, Carol Rozwell

By 2015, at least 25% of new CEOs

at Fortune 500 manufacturers and retailers will have deep supply chain

experience.

Noha Tohamy et al

By 2014, organizations

integrating communities into customer support will realize cost

reductions ranging from 10% to 50%.

Michael Maoz

Scottish implications

• Social and eCommerce segments are converging

• Social commerce, though, will have mixed results

• Community-based customer support will have mixed impact on margin and CSAT

• Marketing needs to focus more on retention not just acquisition

• Automated agents are worth watching as a technology

16

Social

By year-end 2013, 75% of new

business applications will

incorporate social user styles,

conventions and information feeds

for the user experience.

Jenny Sussin

By year-end 2014, at least one social

network provider will become an

insurance sales channel

Juergen Weiss

By YE2012, over 60% of Fortune 500

companies will actively be

engaging customers with Facebook

marketing, up from 20% today

Adam Sarner

By year-end 2013, B2B organizations using social CRM will represent 25%

of all projects worldwide, which is

an increase from fewer than 10% in

2011

Ed Thompson

Social

By year-end 2013, 75% of new

business applications will

incorporate social user styles,

conventions and information feeds

for the user experience.

Jenny Sussin

By year-end 2014, at least one social

network provider will become an

insurance sales channel

Juergen Weiss

By YE2012, over 60% of Fortune 500

companies will actively be

engaging customers with Facebook

marketing, up from 20% today

Adam Sarner

By year-end 2013, B2B organizations using social CRM will represent 25%

of all projects worldwide, which is

an increase from fewer than 10% in

2011

Ed Thompson

By 2014, refusing to communicate with

customers via social channels will be as harmful as ignoring

emails or phone calls is today.

Jeffrey Mann, Carol Rozwell

By 2014, less than 20% of large

enterprises will block all access to

external social media, down from

approximately 50% in 2011.

Andrew Walls

Scottish implications

• Social players will continue to diversify and seek monetization opportunities

• Social is increasing in acceptance by the “suits” in corporate IT

• Social CRM is a very active technology area

19

Data Management

Through 2015, business analytics

needs will drive 70% of investments

in the expansion and modernization

of information infrastructure.

Ted Friedman

Through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500

organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive

advantage.

Steve Prentice

Through 2015, more than 90% of

business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10%

will quantify its economic value.

Doug Laney

By 2014, at least 50% of midsize businesses will

triple the storage capacity that they

had in 2011.

Jie Zhang

Through 2015, business analytics

needs will drive 70% of investments

in the expansion and modernization

of information infrastructure.

Ted Friedman

Through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500

organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive

advantage.

Steve Prentice

Through 2015, more than 90% of

business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10%

will quantify its economic value.

Doug Laney

By 2014, at least 50% of midsize businesses will

triple the storage capacity that they

had in 2011.

Jie Zhang

Data Management

Through 2016, spending on governing

information must increase to five

times the current level to be successful.

Ted Friedman

By 2016, 20% of CIOs in regulated industries will lose their jobs for failing to implement the

discipline of information governance successfully.

Debra Logan

By 2016, in-memory column-store

database management

systems will replace 25% of traditional data warehouses

and online transaction processing

applications.

Donald Feinberg et al

Through 2016, 75% of CISOs who

experience publicly disclosed security breaches and lack

documented, tested response plans will

be fired.

Rob McMillan

Through 2015, business analytics

needs will drive 70% of investments

in the expansion and modernization

of information infrastructure.

Ted Friedman

Through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500

organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive

advantage.

Steve Prentice

Through 2015, more than 90% of

business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10%

will quantify its economic value.

Doug Laney

By 2014, at least 50% of midsize businesses will

triple the storage capacity that they

had in 2011.

Jie Zhang

Data Management

Through 2016, spending on governing

information must increase to five

times the current level to be successful.

Ted Friedman

By 2016, 20% of CIOs in regulated industries will lose their jobs for failing to implement the

discipline of information governance successfully.

Debra Logan

By 2016, in-memory column-store

database management

systems will replace 25% of traditional data warehouses

and online transaction processing

applications.

Donald Feinberg et al

Through 2016, 75% of CISOs who

experience publicly disclosed security breaches and lack

documented, tested response plans will

be fired.

Rob McMillan

By 2015, 20% of the revenue in data management

technology markets will be captured via

nonperpetual licensing models, a more than fivefold

increase.

Ted Friedman

Scottish implications

• Increases in data volumes and the needs of analytics will drive infrastructure spend

• In-memory technology and data security technologies are worth watching

• Information management and governance spend will need to increase, otherwise CIO tenure….

• Revenue models for information management are changing

23

Sales and Marketing

By 2014, inside sales capacity in

technology providers will

increase 50% to drive speed and

responsiveness of sales.

David Mitchell

By 2015, 70% of branded

manufacturers will implement e-

commerce to sell direct to consumers, creating significant

channel conflict.

Chris Fletcher

By 2014, 60% of traditional IT

distributors will become cloud aggregation brokerages

servicing SMBs through VAR

partners.

Tiffani Bova

By 2015, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Baidu and Apple will collect

personally identifiable

transaction …on 10% of the

population in developed nations.

William Clark

Sales and Marketing

By 2014, inside sales capacity in

technology providers will

increase 50% to drive speed and

responsiveness of sales.

David Mitchell

By 2015, 70% of branded

manufacturers will implement e-

commerce to sell direct to consumers, creating significant

channel conflict.

Chris Fletcher

By 2014, 60% of traditional IT

distributors will become cloud aggregation brokerages

servicing SMBs through VAR

partners.

Tiffani Bova

By 2015, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Baidu and Apple will collect

personally identifiable

transaction …on 10% of the

population in developed nations.

William Clark

By 2015, 50% of the VAR channel

will disappear due to its slow response in satisfying major

technology provider needs.

Neil McMurchy

By 2015, IT marketers that

adopt best practices in real-time

marketing will outperform those

that adhere to traditional, slower

processes.

Richard Fouts

Scottish implications

• VAR will be become an increasingly difficult business model and will evolve, potential to cloud service brokers

• Speed and agility in sales and marketing will be rewarded

26

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Navigating a Stormy MarketScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012

David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner