scorpio bulkers inc. stifel conference presentation · 2020. 2. 12. · disclaimer 2 this...
TRANSCRIPT
February 2020
Scorpio Bulkers Inc.
STIFEL Conference Presentation
Disclaimer
2
This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These
forward-looking statements reflect Scorpio Bulkers Inc.’s (“Scorpio’s”) current views with respect to future events and financial performance. The words “believe,” “anticipate,”
“intend,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “plan,” “potential,” “may,” “should,” “expect” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements
in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical
operating trends, data contained in Scorpio’s records and other data available from third parties. Although Scorpio believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because
these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond Scorpio’s control, Scorpio cannot assure
you that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs, projections or future financial performance.
Risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the failure of counterparties to fully perform their contracts with Scorpio, the strength of world economies and currencies, general
market conditions, including fluctuations in charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand in the bulk carrier markets, changes in Scorpio’s operating expenses, including bunker
prices, drydocking and insurance costs, the fuel efficiency of our vessels, the market for Scorpio's vessels, availability of financing and refinancing, charter counterparty performance,
ability to obtain financing and comply with covenants in such financing arrangements, changes in governmental and environmental rules and regulations or actions taken by regulatory
authorities including those that may limit the commercial useful lives of bulk carriers, potential liability from pending or future litigation, general domestic and international political
conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents or political events, and other important factors described from time to time in the reports Scorpio files with, or
furnishes to, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or the Commission, and the New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE. Scorpio undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-
looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of Scorpio's future performance, and actual results and future developments may vary materially from those
projected in the forward-looking statements.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”), earnings before interest and taxes (“EBIT”), adjusted net income and related per share amounts, as well as
adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT and TCE Revenue are non-GAAP performance measures that the Company believes provide investors with a means of evaluating and understanding how the
Company’s management evaluates the Company’s operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, nor superior
to financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Unless otherwise indicated, information contained in this presentation concerning Scorpio’s industry and the market in which it operates, including its general expectations about its
industry, market position, market opportunity and market size, is based on data from various sources including internal data and estimates as well as third party sources widely available to
the public such as independent industry publications, government publications, reports by market research firms or other published independent sources. Internal data and estimates are
based upon this information as well as information obtained from trade and business organizations and other contacts in the markets in which Scorpio operates and management’s
understanding of industry conditions. This information, data and estimates involve a number of assumptions and limitations, are subject to risks and uncertainties, and are subject to
change based on various factors, including those discussed above. You are cautioned not to give undue weight to such information, data and estimates. While Scorpio believes the market
and industry information included in this presentation to be generally reliable, it has not independently verified any third-party information or verified that more recent information is not
available.
Company Overview
Owns 52 mid-size dry bulk fuel-efficient
‘Eco’ vessels with an average age of 3.9
years
Marshall Islands incorporated, HQ in
Monaco, and NYSE-listed under the ticker
“SALT”
Trades vessels on the spot market through
the Scorpio Ultramax and Scorpio
Kamsarmax pools
Meeting IMO 2020 regulations by installing
scrubbers throughout its fleet (80%
expected to be installed by June 2020)
Successfully invested $100 million in 2018
with the purchase of approximately 5.4
million shares of Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE:
STNG)2
1
2
3
4
5
1) Source: Clarkson's Research Services January 2020
2) Given the special dividend declared on October 22, 2019, Scorpio Bulkers now owns approximately 4.4 million shares of Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE: STNG)
35 17
50,000 – 64,999 dwt 65,000 – 100,000 dwt
Supramax/Ultramax Panamax/Kamsarmax
Mid Size Fleet Focus
3
9.4
7.7
9.6
9.3
8.7
10.4
7.7
3.9
27
30
24
37
50
43
79
52
0 20 40 60 80 100
Genco
Golden Ocean
Diana
Safe Bulkers
Eagle Bulk
Navios MH
Star Bulk
Scorpio Bulkers
# of Owned Handymax/Panamax Vessels Average Age
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Star Bulk Golden Ocean Genco Diana Scorpio Bulkers Eagle Bulk
Investor & Share HighlightsMarket Cap ($m)(2)
Current Major Shareholders(1)
Scorpio Services Holding Limited 19.3 %
GRM Investments Limited 17.7 %
Evermore Global Advisors LLC 8.3 %
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 4.9%
BlackRock Inc 3.4%
Renaissance Technologies LLC 2.5%
The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 1.8%
Hosking Partners LLP 1.5%
State Street Corp. 1.3%
Royce & Associates LP 1.0%
1) Bloomberg & IPreo January 2020, Scorpio Services Holding Limited (‘SSH’) with affiliates
2) Fearnleys, (US Exchanges Only) February 2020 4
3
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
Star Bulk Golden Ocean Genco ScorpioBulkers
Eagle Bulk Diana
Liquidity Per Day ($m)(2)
Q4-19 Financial Results • GAAP Net Income of $15.1 million / Income per diluted share of $0.21, Including:
• Non-cash gain of approximately $46.1 million and cash dividend income of $0.5 million, or $0.66 per
diluted share, primarily from the Company’s equity investment in Scorpio Tankers Inc.
• Write-down of assets held for sale of approximately $25.2 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, related
to the classification of four Ultramax vessels as held for sale.
• Write-off of approximately $0.2 million of deferred financing costs on the credit facility related to the
SBI Puma and the SBI Cougar.
• Adjusted net income was $40.6 million, or $0.57 adjusted per diluted share
• EBITDA of $41.5 million (Adjusted EBITDA of $66.7 million)
TCE • Ultramax TCE of $11,244 per day in Q4-2019
• Ultramax TCE of $10,505 per day booked to date in Q1-2020
• Kamsarmax TCE of $11,934 per day in Q4-2019
• Kamsarmax TCE of $12,242 per day booked to date in Q1-2020
Liquidity • As of January 24, 2020, the Company had $65.9 million in cash
Financing • During October 2019, the Company prepaid $21.9 million of its $38.7 Million Credit Facility and wrote-off
approximately $0.2 million of deferred financing costs as part of the sale of the SBI Puma and SBI Cougar
Dividend • The Company’s Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.02 per share on January 27, 2020
Q4–2019 Corporate & Financial Highlights
5
Financial Performance Summary
OPERATING CASH FLOW
REVENUE
-$27.5
-$18.1
-$4.5 -$2.1 -$1.7
$2.5$5.3
$13.5 $11.1
$21.1$18.6 $19.6
$4.5
-$0.7
$18.9
$11.2
-$35
$0
$35
$10.2
$17.4
$23.9$26.8
$34.7$37.7 $38.6
$51.1$54.3
$60.6 $62.5$65.2
$50.4 $50.6
$63.2$60.3
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
($17.0) ($5.8)
($1.3)
$0.9 $7.3$10.8 $12.4
$22.9 $20.4$28.1 $28.8
$23.3
$32.8
$70.0
$26.1
$66.7
-$40
-$20
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
ADJUSTED EBIT
ADJUSTED EBITDA
-$28.8
-$19.2-$16.2-$14.1-$9.9
-$6.2 -$4.1
$6.0 $2.9$10.6 $9.4
$3.5
$15.5
$50.9
$8.7
$49.8
-$40
-$20
$0
$20
$40
$60
Figures in USD millions
Scrubber Economics
IMO 2020 Regulations & Company Strategy
• The International Maritime Organization
(IMO) will require shipowners to reduce
sulfur emissions from 2020
To comply shipowners will have to decide
between:
• Installing a scrubber to enable the
vessel to burn HSFO
• Paying the premium to consume
compliant fuels with a sulfur
content <0.5% (MGO and LSFO)
• LNG as bunker fuel
• The Company plans to install scrubbers on
all of its owned and finance leased
Kamsarmax and Ultramax vessels before
Q4-2020.
• The majority of scrubber installations will
be coordinated with scheduled dry docks
reducing the amount of off hire
• The Scrubbers and their installation will
cost approximately $2.5 million per
vessel.
What is IMO 2020? How Scorpio will Comply
8
Scrubber CAPEX & Installation Schedule
9Based on Scorpio Bulkers assumptions for 2019 Q4
9
10
1
4
2
5
4
5
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21
Accum
ula
ted S
cru
bber
CAPEX (
in M
illions
USD
)
Count
of
Vess
els
Ultramax Kamsarmax Accumulated CAPEX (in millions USD)
Rotterdam & Singapore Forward Fuel Curve
Forward Fuel Curve Supports Expectations of Scrubber Benefits
Annual Scrubber Fuel Savings
Scrubber TCE Savings Benefit (/day)
Source: Bloomberg, February 2020 10
$46.7
$58.4
$70.0
$81.7
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$200 $250 $300 $350
($U
SD
Millions)
MGO-HSFO Spread ($/MT)
$2,721
$3,402
$4,082
$4,762
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$200 $250 $300 $350
($/day)
MGO-HSFO Spread ($/MT)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300Rotterdam (VSLFO-HSFO Spread) Singapore (VSLFO-HSFO Spread)
Market Update
Dry Bulk Market Continues to Grow
Source: Clarksons Research Services January 2020
(e) = estimate; (f) = forecast
Million T
onnes
2010-2020
Iron Ore Coal Grains Minor Bulks Total Dry Bulk
CAGR 4.2% 3.4% 4.5% 2.8% 3.5%
Iron Ore, 27%
Coal, 24%
Grains, 9%
Minor Bulks, 39%
Dry Bulk Commodity Market Share
Ultramax & Kamsarmax Cargoes
Dry Bulk Commodity Market Share
12
3,403
3,835
4,073
4,309
4,560
4,812 4,822 4,889
5,089 5,224 5,281
5,393
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(e)
Iron Ore Coal Grain Minor Bulk
372
389
416
390382 385
400
431
456
479
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (e) 2020 (f)
(Million M
T)
Sugar Anthracite Nickel Ore Manganese Ore Salt Others
1,7071,745
1,824 1,8481,891 1,881
1,938
2,0112,066
2,160
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (e) 2020 (f)
(Million M
T)
Steel Products Forest Products Agri Bulks & Fertilizer
Bauxite Cement Scrap
Petcoke & Coke Other
Mid Size Segments offer Cargo Diversification
Source: Clarksons Research Services January 2020
(e) = estimate; (f) = forecast
Minor Bulks by Commodity Type Minor Bulk Commodities: Others
13
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(Tw
h)
FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct-
16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct-
18
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct-
19
Jan-2
0
(Million M
T)
Key Indicators Still Supportive: Coal
Oil, 19.6%
Natural Gas, 7.4%
Coal, 58.2%
Nuclear, 2.0%
Hydro, 8.3%
Renewables, 4.4%
China Energy Consumption By Type1 China Electricity Production Continues to Grow2
China Coal Inventories2
1) BP Statistical Review 2019
2) Bloomberg January 2020 14
Key Indicators Still Supportive: Grain
USDA predicts a 1% increase in the global agricultural product trade in 2019/2020
Global Agricultural Trade Forecast (1) China Soybean Imports by Country (2)
1) USDA Outlook, December 2019
2) Bloomberg January 2020 15
Wheat, 173.1 Wheat, 181.1
Coarse Grain, 212.4
Coarse Grain, 201.0
Soybean, 146.0 Soybean, 148.0
Soymeal, 63.3 Soymeal, 64.6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2018/19 (est) 2019/20 (proj)
Wheat Coarse Grain Soybean Soymeal
Millions
Metr
ic T
onnes
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Millions
Tonnes
From the US From Brazil From other countries
22% 20%24%
16%
50%
43%
42%
39%
17%
16%16%
23%
7%
12%9%
7%
4%9% 9%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20+
Limited Contracting & Expected Scrapping
Bulker Fleet Age ProfileNewbuilding Orders Per Year: 2001-2019
Source: Clarksons Research Services January 2020 16
46101
155112 120
280
567
361
136
455
213
112
506
276
141
25
120 13428
91
148
99 101
170
358
238
81
473
152
81
204
149
836 153
153
77
74
192
303
211 221
450
925
599
217
928
365
193
710
425
224
31
273287
146
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
# o
f V
esse
ls
Handymax/Ultramax
Panamax/Kamsarmax
www.scorpiobulkers.com