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IEA

STATISTICS

CO2 EMISSIONSFROM FUELCOMBUSTION

1971- 2000EMISSIONS DE

CO2 DUES ALA COMBUSTION

D’ENERGIE

CO2 EMISSIONSFROM FUEL COMBUSTIONRecent years have witnessed a fundamental change in the waygovernments approach energy-related environmental issues.

In recognition of this change and in preparation for the EighthConference of the Parties (COP-8) meeting under the U.N. ClimateConvention in New Delhi, India from 23 October to 1 November2002, the IEA has prepared this publication on CO2 emissions fromfuel combustion. The data in this book are designed to assist inunderstanding the evolution of these emissions from 1971 to 2000for more than 140 countries and regions by sector and by fuel.

Emissions were calculated using IEA energy databases andthe default methods and emission factors from the Revised 1996IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

EMISSIONS DE CO2 DUES ALA COMBUSTION D’ENERGIEAu cours de ces dernières années, les gouvernements

ont changé de manière radicale leur approchedes problèmes d’environnement liés à l’énergie.

Prenant acte de ce changement et dans l’optique dela Huitième Conférence des Parties (COP-8) de

la convention-cadre des Nations Unies surle changement climatique qui se déroulera à New Delhi,

Inde, du 23 octobre au 1 novembre 2002, l’AIE a préparécette publication relative aux émissions

de CO2 dues à la combustion d’énergie. Les donnéescontenues dans ce livre sont destinées à faciliter

la compréhension de l’évolution, par secteur et parcombustible, de ces émissions de 1971 à 2000

pour plus de 140 pays et régions.

Les émissions ont été calculées à partir desbases de données sur l’énergie de l’AIE ainsi que des

méthodologies et des facteurs d’émissions par défaut desLignes directrices du GIEC pour les inventaires nationaux

de gaz à effet de serre - Version révisée 1996.

(61 2002 22 3 P1) $150 or €165 ISBN 92-64-09794-5

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

2002 Edition2002

iv - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


FOREWORD

Recent years have witnessed a fundamental change in the way governments approach energy-related environ-mental issues. Promoting sustainable development and combating climate change have become integral as-pects of energy planning, analysis and policy making in many countries, including all IEA Members.

In recognition of the importance attached to the environmental aspects of energy, the IEA has prepared thesixth edition of its published statistics on CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. These data are alsoavailable on CD-ROM and on the internet.

The purpose of this volume is to put our best and most current information in the hands of those who need it,including in particular the participants in the UNFCCC process. The IEA is a contributor to the official Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies for estimating greenhouse gas emissions. TheIEA’s basic energy balance data are the figures most often cited in the field. For these reasons, we felt it ap-propriate to publish this information in a comprehensive form.

It is our hope that this book will assist the reader in better understanding the evolution of CO2 emissions fromfuel combustion from 1971 to 2000 for more than 140 countries and regions, by sector and by fuel. This publi-cation incorporates comments and suggestions received since the first edition in November 1997.

Most of the data presented in this publication are only for energy-related CO2. They may differ from countries'official submissions of emissions inventories to the UNFCCC Secretariat.

For the first time last year, summary data for CH4 and N2O, as well as for CO2 from non-energy-relatedsources and gas flaring, were added. This year, HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions have also been added. This in-formation is shown in Part III.

In addition, the publication this year also includes information on “Key Sources” from fuel combustion, as de-veloped in the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas In-ventories.

This report is published under my responsibility as Executive Director of the IEA and does not necessarilyreflect the views of IEA Member countries.

Robert PriddleExecutive Director

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - v


AVANT-PROPOS

Ces dernières années, l’attitude des gouvernements à l’égard des problèmes d’environnement liés à l’énergie aradicalement changé. L’action en faveur du développement durable et la lutte contre le changement climatiquesont désormais des aspects intégrés à la planification, l’analyse et la prise de décisions dans le domaine del’énergie dans nombre de pays, et notamment dans tous les pays Membres de l’AIE.

Reconnaissant l’importance attachée aux aspects environnementaux de l’énergie, l’AIE a préparé la sixièmeédition de ses statistiques sur les émissions de CO2 imputables à la combustion de combustibles fossiles. Cesdonnées sont également disponibles sous forme de CD-ROM et sur Internet.

Le présent ouvrage a pour objet de mettre nos informations les meilleures et les plus récentes à la dispositionde ceux qui en ont besoin, et tout particulièrement des participants aux travaux relatifs à la CCNUCC. L’AIEcontribue à l’élaboration des méthodologies officielles du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental surl’évolution du climat (GIEC) pour l’estimation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Les données de base desbilans énergétiques de l’AIE sont les chiffres les plus fréquemment cités dans ce domaine. Il nous a donc sem-blé opportun, pour ces motifs, de publier ces informations de manière très complète.

Nous avons bon espoir que le présent ouvrage aidera le lecteur à mieux appréhender l’évolution des émissionsde CO2 dues à la combustion d’énergie entre 1971 et 2000 dans plus de 140 pays et régions, par secteur et parcombustible. Cette publication tient compte des observations et suggestions qui nous ont été communiquéesdepuis la première édition de novembre 1997.

La majorité des données concernent seulement les émissions de CO2 liées à l’énergie. Elles peuvent différerdes données figurant dans les communications nationales officielles des inventaires des émissions transmisesau Secrétariat de la CCNUCC.

Pour la première fois l’année dernière, des données synthétiques relatives à CH4 et N2O ainsi qu’aux émissionsde CO2 liées à des sources non-énergétiques et au gaz brûlé à la torche ont été ajoutées. Cette année, lesdonnées concernant les émissions de HFC, PFC et SF6 ont aussi été ajoutées. Ces données figurent dans laPartie III.

De plus, la publication de cette année inclue aussi des informations sur les « sources principales » dues à lacombustion d’énergie, comme l’indique le Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories (Guide de bonne pratique et gestion des incertitudes dans les inventaires natio-naux de gaz à effet de serre).

Le présent rapport est publié sous ma responsabilité, en qualité de Directeur exécutif de l’AIE, et ne traduit pasnécessairement les points de vue des pays Membres de l’AIE.

Robert PriddleDirecteur exécutif

vi - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

Introduction..........................................................xviiA. Looking at the Past Decade ........................xxiiiB. Top 15 Countries by Indicator .................xxxvii

C. Emissions Fuel by Fuel ...................................xlD. Data Quality...................................................xliE. Conclusions..................................................xliv

PART I: METHODOLOGY

1. IEA Emissions Estimates...............................I.32. Units and Conversions...................................I.93. Indicators .....................................................I.11

4. Geographical Coverage................................I.155. IPCC Methodologies....................................I.196. Energy Balances ..........................................I.39

PART II: CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION

SUMMARY TABLES

CO2 Emissions: Sectoral Approach ......................II.4CO2 Emissions: Reference Approach .................II.10CO2 Emissions from International Marine

Bunkers ........................................................II.16CO2 Emissions from International Aviation

Bunkers ........................................................II.22Total Primary Energy Supply .............................II.28GDP using Exchange Rates................................II.40GDP using Purchasing Power Parities................II.46Population...........................................................II.52CO2 Emissions / TPES........................................II.58

CO2 Emissions / GDP using ExchangeRates............................................................ II.64

CO2 Emissions / GDP using PurchasingPower Parities ............................................. II.70

CO2 Emissions / Population............................... II.76Per Capita Emissions by Sector in 2000 ............ II.82Per Capita Emissions with Electricity and Heat

Allocated to Consuming Sectors in 2000.... II.85Electricity and Heat Output................................ II.88CO2 Emissions per kWh from Electricity

and Heat Generation.................................... II.90

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TOTALS

World ................................................................II.100 Annex 1 Parties.............................................II.102 Annex II Parties ........................................II.104 North America ......................................II.106 Europe ..................................................II.108 Pacific ...................................................II.110 Economies in Transition ...........................II.112 Non-Annex 1 Parties.....................................II.114 Annex B Parties ............................................II.116OECD Total......................................................II.118OECD North America ......................................II.120

OECD Pacific .................................................. II.122OECD Europe.................................................. II.124European Union ............................................... II.126Africa ............................................................... II.128Middle East ...................................................... II.130Non-OECD Europe.......................................... II.132Former USSR................................................... II.134Latin America .................................................. II.136Asia (excluding China) .................................... II.138China................................................................ II.140

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - vii


COUNTRY TABLES

Albania..............................................................II.144Algeria ..............................................................II.146Angola ..............................................................II.148Argentina ..........................................................II.150Armenia ............................................................II.152Australia............................................................II.154Austria...............................................................II.156Azerbaijan.........................................................II.158Bahrain..............................................................II.160Bangladesh........................................................II.162Belarus ..............................................................II.164Belgium.............................................................II.166Benin.................................................................II.168Bolivia...............................................................II.170Bosnia-Herzegovina..........................................II.172Brazil.................................................................II.174Brunei ...............................................................II.176Bulgaria.............................................................II.178Cameroon..........................................................II.180Canada ..............................................................II.182Chile..................................................................II.184People’s Republic of China ..............................II.186Chinese Taipei ..................................................II.188Colombia...........................................................II.190Congo................................................................II.192Democratic Republic of Congo ........................II.194Costa Rica.........................................................II.196Côte d’Ivoire .....................................................II.198Croatia...............................................................II.200Cuba..................................................................II.202Cyprus...............................................................II.204Czech Republic.................................................II.206Denmark ...........................................................II.208Dominican Republic .........................................II.210Ecuador.............................................................II.212Egypt.................................................................II.214El Salvador........................................................II.216Eritrea ...............................................................II.218Estonia ..............................................................II.220Ethiopia.............................................................II.222Finland ..............................................................II.224France ...............................................................II.226Gabon................................................................II.228Georgia .............................................................II.230Germany............................................................II.232Ghana................................................................II.234Gibraltar............................................................II.236Greece...............................................................II.238Guatemala .........................................................II.240

Haiti ................................................................. II.242Honduras.......................................................... II.244Hong Kong, China ........................................... II.246Hungary ........................................................... II.248Iceland.............................................................. II.250India ................................................................. II.252Indonesia .......................................................... II.254Islamic Republic of Iran................................... II.256Iraq ................................................................... II.258Ireland .............................................................. II.260Israel................................................................. II.262Italy .................................................................. II.264Jamaica............................................................. II.266Japan ................................................................ II.268Jordan............................................................... II.270Kazakhstan....................................................... II.272Kenya ............................................................... II.274Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.......... II.276Korea................................................................ II.278Kuwait.............................................................. II.280Kyrgyzstan ....................................................... II.282Latvia ............................................................... II.284Lebanon ........................................................... II.286Libya ................................................................ II.288Lithuania .......................................................... II.290Luxembourg..................................................... II.292Former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia .............. II.294Malaysia........................................................... II.296Malta ................................................................ II.298Mexico ............................................................. II.300Republic of Moldova ....................................... II.302Morocco ........................................................... II.304Mozambique .................................................... II.306Myanmar .......................................................... II.308Namibia............................................................ II.310Nepal................................................................ II.312Netherlands ...................................................... II.314Netherlands Antilles......................................... II.316New Zealand .................................................... II.318Nicaragua ......................................................... II.320Nigeria ............................................................. II.322Norway............................................................. II.324Oman................................................................ II.326Pakistan............................................................ II.328Panama............................................................. II.330Paraguay........................................................... II.332Peru .................................................................. II.334Philippines ....................................................... II.336Poland .............................................................. II.338

viii - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


Portugal.............................................................II.340Qatar .................................................................II.342Romania............................................................II.344Russia................................................................II.346Saudi Arabia .....................................................II.348Senegal..............................................................II.350Singapore ..........................................................II.352Slovak Republic................................................II.354Slovenia ............................................................II.356South Africa......................................................II.358Spain .................................................................II.360Sri Lanka...........................................................II.362Sudan ................................................................II.364Sweden..............................................................II.366Switzerland .......................................................II.368Syria ..................................................................II.370Tajikistan ..........................................................II.372United Republic of Tanzania ............................II.374Thailand ............................................................II.376

Togo................................................................. II.378Trinidad and Tobago........................................ II.380Tunisia ............................................................. II.382Turkey.............................................................. II.384Turkmenistan ................................................... II.386Ukraine............................................................. II.388United Arab Emirates ...................................... II.390United Kingdom............................................... II.392United States .................................................... II.394Uruguay ........................................................... II.396Uzbekistan ....................................................... II.398Venezuela......................................................... II.400Vietnam............................................................ II.402Yemen.............................................................. II.404Federal Republic of Yugoslavia....................... II.406Former Yugoslavia........................................... II.408Zambia ............................................................. II.410Zimbabwe ........................................................ II.412

PART III: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

1. Shares and Trends in GHG Emissions........ III.3 2. Sources and Methods.................................. III.9

Kyoto Protocol Base Years

The year 1990 should be the base year for the estimation and reporting of invento-ries. According to the provisions of Article 4.6 of the Convention and Decisions9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4, the following Annex I Parties that are undergoing the processof transition to a market economy, are allowed to use a base year or a period of yearsother than 1990, as follows:

Bulgaria: to use 1988Hungary: to use the average of the years 1985 to 1987Poland: to use 1988Romania to use 1989Slovenia: to use 1986

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - ix


TABLE DES MATIERES

INTRODUCTION

(non-disponible en français) ................................xvii

PARTIE I: METHODOLOGIE

1. Estimations des émissions de l’AIE.............I.472. Unités et Coefficients de Conversion ..........I.553. Indicateurs....................................................I.57

4. Couverture géographique.............................I.615. Méthodologies GIEC ...................................I.656. Bilans énergétiques ......................................I.85

PARTIE II :EMISSIONS DE CO2 DUES A LA COMBUSTION D’ENERGIE

TABLEAUX RECAPITULATIFS

Emissions de CO2 : Méthode sectorielle ...............II.4Emissions de CO2 : Méthode de référence..........II.10Emissions de CO2 imputables aux soutes

maritimes internationales .............................II.16Emissions de CO2 imputables aux soutes

aéronautiques internationales.......................II.22Approvisionnements totaux en

énergie primaire ............................................II.28PIB selon les taux de change ..............................II.40PIB selon les parités de pouvoir d’achat.............II.46Population...........................................................II.52Emissions de CO2 / ATEP ..................................II.58

Emissions de CO2 / PIB selon les tauxde change..................................................... II.64

Emissions de CO2 / PIB selon les paritésde pouvoir d’achat....................................... II.70

Emissions de CO2 / Population............................ II.76

Emissions 2000 par habitant ventilées par secteur ... II.82Emissions 2000 par habitant avec allocation

de l’électricité et de la chaleur auxsecteurs de consommation........................... II.85

Production d’électricité et de chaleur................. II.88Emissions de CO2

par kWh pour le secteurde l’électricité et de la chaleur..................... II.90

TOTAUX MONDIAUX ET REGIONAUX

Monde...............................................................II.100 Parties de l’Annexe I ....................................II.102 Parties de l’Annexe II ...............................II.104 Amérique du Nord ................................II.106 Europe ..................................................II.108 Pacifique ...............................................II.110 Economies en transition ...........................II.112 Parties ne figurant pas à l’Annexe I .............II.114 Parties de l’Annexe B ...................................II.116Total OCDE......................................................II.118OCDE Amérique du Nord ................................II.120

OCDE Pacifique .............................................. II.122OCDE Europe.................................................. II.124Union européenne ............................................ II.126Afrique ............................................................. II.128Moyen-Orient................................................... II.130Europe non-OCDE........................................... II.132Ex-URSS.......................................................... II.134Amérique latine................................................ II.136Asie (Chine non incluse).................................. II.138Chine................................................................ II.140

x - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


TABLEAUX PAR PAYS

Afrique du Sud..................................................II.358Albanie..............................................................II.144Algérie ..............................................................II.146Allemagne.........................................................II.232Angola ..............................................................II.148Antilles néerlandaises .......................................II.316Arabie saoudite .................................................II.348Argentine ..........................................................II.150Arménie ............................................................II.152Australie............................................................II.154Autriche ............................................................II.156Azerbaïdjan.......................................................II.158Bahrein..............................................................II.160Bangladesh........................................................II.162Bélarus ..............................................................II.164Belgique............................................................II.166Bénin.................................................................II.168Bolivie...............................................................II.170Bosnie-Herzégovine..........................................II.172Brésil.................................................................II.174Brunei ...............................................................II.176Bulgarie.............................................................II.178Cameroun..........................................................II.180Canada ..............................................................II.182Chili ..................................................................II.184République populaire de Chine ........................II.186Chypre...............................................................II.204Colombie ..........................................................II.190Congo................................................................II.192République démocratique du Congo.................II.194Corée.................................................................II.278République populaire dém. de Corée................II.276Costa Rica.........................................................II.196Côte d'Ivoire......................................................II.198Croatie...............................................................II.200Cuba..................................................................II.202Danemark..........................................................II.208République dominicaine ...................................II.210Egypte ...............................................................II.214El Salvador........................................................II.216Emirats arabes unis ...........................................II.390Equateur............................................................II.212Erythrée.............................................................II.218Espagne.............................................................II.360Estonie ..............................................................II.220Etats-Unis .........................................................II.394Ethiopie.............................................................II.222Finlande ............................................................II.224France ...............................................................II.226

Gabon............................................................... II.228Géorgie............................................................. II.230Ghana............................................................... II.234Gibraltar ........................................................... II.236Grèce................................................................ II.238Guatemala ........................................................ II.240Haiti ................................................................. II.242Honduras.......................................................... II.244Hong Kong, Chine ........................................... II.246Hongrie ............................................................ II.248Inde .................................................................. II.252Indonésie .......................................................... II.254Irak ................................................................... II.258République islamique d’Iran............................ II.256Irlande .............................................................. II.260Islande.............................................................. II.250Israël................................................................. II.262Italie ................................................................. II.264Jamaïque .......................................................... II.266Japon ................................................................ II.268Jordanie............................................................ II.270Kazakhstan....................................................... II.272Kenya ............................................................... II.274Kirghizistan...................................................... II.282Koweit.............................................................. II.280Lettonie ............................................................ II.284Liban ................................................................ II.286Libye ................................................................ II.288Lituanie ............................................................ II.290Luxembourg..................................................... II.292Ex-République yougoslave de Macédoine....... II.294Malaisie............................................................ II.296Malte ................................................................ II.298Maroc ............................................................... II.304Mexique ........................................................... II.300République de Moldova................................... II.302Mozambique .................................................... II.306Myanmar .......................................................... II.308Namibie............................................................ II.310Népal................................................................ II.312Nicaragua ......................................................... II.320Nigéria ............................................................. II.322Norvège............................................................ II.324Nouvelle-Zélande............................................. II.318Oman................................................................ II.326Ouzbékistan ..................................................... II.398Pakistan............................................................ II.328Panama............................................................. II.330Paraguay........................................................... II.332

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xi


Pays-Bas ...........................................................II.314Pérou.................................................................II.334Philippines ........................................................II.336Pologne .............................................................II.338Portugal.............................................................II.340Qatar .................................................................II.342Roumanie..........................................................II.344Royaume-Uni....................................................II.392Russie................................................................II.346Sénégal..............................................................II.350Singapour..........................................................II.352République slovaque.........................................II.354Slovénie ............................................................II.356Soudan ..............................................................II.364Sri Lanka...........................................................II.362Suède ................................................................II.366Suisse ................................................................II.368Syrie ..................................................................II.370Tadjikistan ........................................................II.372

Taipei chinois................................................... II.188République unie de Tanzanie........................... II.374République tchèque.......................................... II.206Thaïlande ......................................................... II.376Togo................................................................. II.378Trinité-et-Tobago............................................. II.380Tunisie ............................................................. II.382Turkménistan ................................................... II.386Turquie............................................................. II.384Ukraine............................................................. II.388Uruguay ........................................................... II.396Vénézuela......................................................... II.400Viêt-Nam.......................................................... II.402Yémen.............................................................. II.404République fédérative de Yougoslavie ............ II.406Ex-Yougoslavie................................................ II.408Zambie ............................................................. II.410Zimbabwe ........................................................ II.412

PARTIE III : EMISSIONS DE GAZ A EFFET DE SERRE

(non-disponible en français) ............................... III.3

Années de référence du Protocole de Kyoto

L’année de référence pour l’estimation et la notification des inventaires devrait être1990. En application des dispositions de l’article 4.6 de la Convention et des Déci-sions 9/CP.2 et 11/CP.4, les Parties de l’Annexe I citées ci-après qui sont en transi-tion vers une économie de marché sont autorisées à utiliser une année ou périoded’années de référence autre que 1990, à savoir :

Bulgarie : 1988Hongrie : moyenne des années 1985 à 1987Pologne : 1988Roumanie : 1989Slovénie : 1986

xii - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


Energy data on OECD and non-OECD countries arecollected by the Energy Statistics Division (ESD) ofthe IEA Secretariat, headed by Mr. Jean-YvesGarnier. Ms. Karen Tréanton, with the assistance ofMs. Bénédicte Riey, is responsible for the estimatesof CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Analysis onlong-term trends was done with the help of Ms. MartinaBosi, Mr. Richard Baron and Mr. Jonathan Pershingin the IEA’s Energy and Environment Division.Secretarial support was supplied by Ms. SusanStolarow and Ms. Diana Browne.

CO2 emission estimates from 1960 to 2000 for theAnnex II countries and from 1971 to 2000 for allother countries are available on CD-ROM suitable for

use on IBM-compatible personal computers. An orderform has been provided at the end of this publication.

In addition, a data service is available on the inter-net. It includes unlimited access through an annualsubscription as well as the possibility to obtain dataon a pay-per-view basis. Details are available athttp:\\www.iea.org.

Enquiries about data or methodology should be ad-dressed to:

Ms. Karen Tréanton:Telephone: (+33-1) 40-57-66-33,Fax: (+33-1) 40-57-66-49,E-mail: [email protected].

Note See multilingual pullout at the end of the publication.Attention Voir le dépliant en plusieurs langues à la fin du présent recueil.Achtung Aufklappbarer Text auf der letzten Umschlagseite.Attenzione Riferirsi al glossario poliglotta alla fine del libro.

� �Nota Véase el glosario plurilingüe al final del libro.��

��

Important Cautionary Notes• The estimates of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion presented in this publication are calcu-

lated using the IEA energy balances and the default methods and emission factors from the Re-vised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. There are many reasonswhy the IEA estimates may not be the same as the numbers that a country submits to theUNFCCC, even if a country has accounted for all of its energy use and correctly applied theIPCC Guidelines.

• In this publication, the IEA presents CO2 emissions calculated using both the IPCC ReferenceApproach and the IPCC Tier 1 Sectoral Approach. In some of the non-OECD countries, therecan be large differences between the two sets of calculations due to various problems in someenergy data. As a consequence, this can lead to different emission trends between 1990 and2000 for certain countries. Please see Chapter 1, “IEA Emissions Estimates” for further details.

• This year, information on “Key Sources” from fuel combustion, as developed in the IPCC GoodPractice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, wasadded to the publication. These calculations are only given for combustion sources and will notinclude key sources from fugitive emissions, industrial processes, solvents, agriculture andwaste. Please see Chapter 1, “IEA Emissions Estimates” and Chapter 5, “IPCC Methodologies”for further information.

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xiii


Les données énergétiques concernant les paysMembres et non membres de l’OCDE sontrecueillies par la Division des statistiques del’énergie (ESD) du Secrétariat de l’AIE, dirigée parM. Jean-Yves Garnier. Mme Karen Tréanton, avecl’assistance de Mlle Bénédicte Riey, est responsabledes estimations des émissions de CO2 dues à lacombustion d’énergie. L’analyse des tendances àlong terme a été effectuée avec l’aide de Mme MartinaBosi, M. Richard Baron et M. Jonathan Pershingdans le cadre de la Division de l’énergie et del’environnement de l’AIE. Les travaux de secrétariatont été assurés par Mme Susan Stolarow etMlle Diana Browne.

Les estimations des émissions de CO2 entre 1960 et2000 pour les pays de l’Annexe II et entre 1971 et2000 pour tous les autres pays sont disponibles sur

CD-ROM utilisables sur ordinateur personnel com-patible IBM. On trouvera un formulaire de com-mande à la fin de la présente publication.

En outre, un service de données est disponible surinternet. Ce service comprend une souscriptionannuelle pour un accès illimité ou bien la possibilitéde payer uniquement pour des données sélec-tionnées. Pour plus de détails, veuillez consulterhttp:\\www.iea.org.

Les demandes d’information sur les données ou laméthodologie doivent être adressées à :

Mme Karen Tréanton:Téléphone: (+33-1) 40-57-66-33,Fax: (+33-1) 40-57-66-49,E-mail: [email protected].

Attention Voir le dépliant en plusieurs langues à la fin du présent recueil.Note See multilingual pullout at the end of the publication.Achtung Aufklappbarer Text auf der letzten Umschlagseite.Attenzione Riferirsi al glossario poliglotta alla fine del libro.

� �Nota Véase el glosario plurilingüe al final del libro.��

��

Avertissement important• Les estimations des émissions de CO2 dues à la combustion d’énergie présentées dans cette publica-

tion sont calculées à partir des bilans énergétiques de l’AIE ainsi qu’à l’aide des méthodes et descoefficients d’émission par défaut des Lignes directrices du GIEC pour les inventaires nationaux degaz à effet de serre - Version révisée 1996. Pour de nombreuses raisons, les estimations de l’AIEpeuvent différer des chiffres communiqués par un pays à la CCNUCC, même si ce pays a renducompte de la totalité de sa consommation d’énergie et correctement appliqué les Lignes directricesdu GIEC.

• Dans cette publication, l’AIE présente les émissions de CO2 calculées selon deux méthodes : la mé-thode de référence du GIEC et la méthode sectorielle du niveau 1 du GIEC. Dans certains pays non-membres de l’OCDE, d’importantes différences entre les deux méthodes peuvent apparaître suiteà des problèmes dans les données énergétiques. En conséquence, la tendance pour certains pays entre1990 et 2000 peut différer selon la méthode de calcul choisie. Le lecteur est invité à se reporter auchapitre 1, “Estimations des émissions de l’AIE”, pour plus de détails.

• Cette année des informations sur les sources principales dues à la combustion d’énergie, selon laméthodologie développée dans le Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in Natio-nal Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Guide de bonne pratique et gestion des incertitudes dans les in-ventaires nationaux de gaz à effet de serre), ont été ajoutées à la publication. Ces calculs concernentuniquement les sources de combustion et n’incluent pas les émissions fugitives, ainsi que les émis-sions liées aux procédés industriels, aux solvants, à l’agriculture et aux déchets. Pour plusd’informations, consultez le chapitre 1, « Estimations des émissions de l’AIE » et le chapitre 5,« Méthodologies GIEC ».

xiv - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


ABBREVIATIONSBtu: British thermal unitGJ: gigajouleGt C: gigatonnes of carbonGWh: gigawatt hourJ: joulekcal: kilocaloriekg: kilogrammekt: thousand tonnesktoe: thousand tonnes of oil equivalentkWh: kilowatt hourMJ: megajouleMt: million tonnesMtoe: million tonnes of oil equivalentm3: cubic metrePJ petajoulet: metric ton = tonne = 1000 kgt C: tonne of carbonTcal: teracalorieTJ: terajouletoe: tonne of oil equivalent = 107 kcal

CEF: carbon emission factorCHP: combined heat and powerGCV: gross calorific valueGDP: gross domestic productLHV: lower heating value = NCVNCV: net calorific valuePPP: purchasing power parityTPES: total primary energy supply

AGBM: Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate under the United Nations Framework Con-vention on Climate Change

AIJ: Activities Implemented Jointly under the United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change

Annex B: See Chapter 4, Geographical CoverageAnnex I: See Chapter 4, Geographical CoverageAnnex II: See Chapter 4, Geographical CoverageCDM: Clean Development MechanismConvention: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeCOP: Conference of the Parties to the ConventionEITs: Economies in Transition (see Chapter 4, Geographical Coverage)EU: European UnionIEA: International Energy AgencyIPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeOECD: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and DevelopmentOLADE: Organización Latino Americana De EnergíaSBI: Subsidiary Body for ImplementationSBSTA: Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological AdviceTCA: Technology Co-operation AgreementUN: United NationsUNECE: United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xv


ABREVIATIONS

Btu: unité thermique britanniqueGJ: gigajouleGt C: gigatonne de carboneGWh: gigawattheureJ: joulekcal: kilocaloriekg: kilogrammekt: millier de tonnesktep: millier de tonnes d’équivalent pétrolekWh kilowattheurem3: mètre cubeMJ: mégajouleMt: million de tonnesMtep: million de tonnes d’équivalent pétrolePJ pétajoulet: tonne = 1000 kgt C: tonne de carboneTcal: téracalorietep: tonne d’équivalent pétrole = 107 kcalTJ: térajoule

ATEP: approvisionnements totaux en énergie primaireCEC coefficient d’émission de carbonePCI: pouvoir calorifique inférieurPCS: pouvoir calorifique supérieurPIB: produit intérieur brutPPA: parité de pouvoir d’achat

AGBM: Groupe spécial du Mandat de Berlin sous couvert de la Convention-cadre desNations Unies sur les changements climatiques

AIE: Agence internationale de l’énergieAIJ: Activités exécutées conjointement en application de la Convention-cadre des

Nations Unies sur les changements climatiquesAnnexe B: Voir chapitre 4, couverture géographiqueAnnexe I: Voir chapitre 4, couverture géographiqueAnnexe II: Voir chapitre 4, couverture géographiqueCCNUCC: Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiquesCEE(ONU): Commission économique pour l’Europe des Nations UniesConvention: Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiquesCOP: Conférence des Parties à la ConventionEET: Economies en transition (voir chapitre 4, couverture géographique)GIEC: Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climatOCDE: Organisation de coopération et de développement économiquesOLADE: Organización Latino Americana De EnergíaONU: Organisation des Nations UniesSBI: Organe subsidiaire de mise en oeuvreSBSTA: Organe subsidiaire de conseil scientifique et technologiqueUE: Union européenne

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CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xvii


INTRODUCTION

The past ten years has witnessed major changes inboth our understanding – and our collective willing-ness to act – on climate change.

The international scientific community, operatingunder the aegis of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change1, produced a series of reports on thestate of our understanding of climate change. Fol-lowing the release of their first report in 1990, theworld moved to negotiate, and then adopt an inter-national treaty to address the climate problem: theUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC)2. The link between anthropo-genic greenhouse gas emissions and climate changewas established by the IPCC in its second report,released in 1995. This report stated, among its otherfindings, that “the balance of evidence suggests adiscernible human influence on global climate.”Following the release of the second report in 1995,more rigorous actions were deemed necessary, andnew negotiations culminated in the adoption of theKyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC3. In late 2001, theIPCC released its 3rd Assessment Report underliningboth the severity and urgency of the problem. Theongoing debate within and between countries, bothabout the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol andabout possible next steps to take to address the cli-mate change problem, are in part driven by the in-creasing weight of evidence from the scientificcommunity.

1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wascreated in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization andthe United Nations Environment Programme. The role of theIPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economicinformation relevant for the understanding of human-inducedclimate change.

2 The full text of the UNFCCC may be found at:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf

3 The full text of the Kyoto Protocol may be found at:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf

Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenicgreenhouse gas (Table 1). Fossil fuel production anduse are responsible for about three-quarters of man-made CO2 emissions. The majority of this volumetreats energy-related emissions of CO2.

Table 1. Total GHG Emissions of Annex ICountries* (CO2, CH4, N2O and other) and the

Contribution of the Energy Sector in 1999

SourceCategory

Total GHGemissions

(Gt CO2-eq.)

Contribu-tion to total

GHGemissions

Share of CO2in eachsource

categoryFuelCombustion

11.4 80.0% 98.2%

FugitiveFuel

0.4 3.0% 14.3%

IndustrialProcesses

0.7 4.9% 50.5%

Agriculture 1.2 8.3% N.A.Other 0.5 3.8% N.A.Total 14.2 100.0% N.A.

Source: UNFCCC, Report on national greenhouse gas inven-tory data from Annex I Parties for 1990 to 1999,FCCC/SBI/2001/13, 25 October 2001, and FCCC/SBI/13/Corr.1.

* Excluding Belarus, Croatia, Romania, Liechtenstein,Lithuania, Russia, Slovenia and Ukraine for which 1999 in-ventories were not available.

Other “direct” greenhouse gases4 produced in en-ergy production and consumption include methane(CH4), from the production, transportation and useof natural gas and coal; and nitrous oxide (N2O),primarily from burning wood as fuel. “Indirect”greenhouse gases emitted from fuel combustion areoxides of nitrogen (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO)and non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOC).

4 Direct greenhouse gases have warming effect of their own.Indirect greenhouse gases do not have a warming effect, exceptas they are involved in the chemical creation or destruction ofdirect greenhouse gases such as methane and ozone.

xviii - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


Global emissions of methane increased about 20%from 1970 to 1990, but then stabilised due to variousfactors. These include changes in the types of riceproduced, a trend toward surface coal mining, lowerindustrial and energy activity levels in the countriesof the former Soviet Union, as well as reduced coalproduction in Germany and the United Kingdom.Global N2O emissions had an even more dramaticincrease of about 40% from 1970 to 1995, of whichonly 2% occurred between 1990 and 1995. For thesegases too, the collapse of the economies of Centraland Eastern Europe was a significant factor in the1990s. A full discussion of non-CO2 GHGs is pro-vided in Part III.

There are big regional differences in the emissionsof non-CO2 gases. In fact, most methane emissionsstem from non-Annex I regions such as East Asia,South Asia and Latin America, where emissionsfrom animals and their waste are significant. Meth-ane emissions from rice cultivation are important inAsia. Coal mines and natural gas distribution net-works are important CH4 sources in North America.

The largest share of nitrous oxide emissions alsocomes from developing countries, with the agricul-ture sector being the largest contributor. N2O emis-sions from industrial processes are greatest inOECD countries.

It must be kept in mind that data on CO2 emissionsfrom sources other than fuel combustion and onother GHG emissions are less dependable than thosefrom the energy sector. The IPCC estimates the un-certainty of energy-related CO2 emissions to be fromplus to minus 5%. The uncertainty of estimates ofother sources of GHG emissions can be muchhigher, reaching 100% in the case of N2O from agri-cultural sources. Overall, the two largest sources ofemissions are energy, which contributes about 70%(mainly in the form of CO2); and agriculture, whichcontributes almost 20% of GHG emissions (mainlyCH4 and N2O).

A more detailed discussion on CO2 emissions fromsources other than fuel combustion, as well as onCH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 can be found inPart III.

Since the beginning of the industrial era, fossil en-ergy has fuelled the global economy. As energy usehas increased, greenhouse gas emissions have spi-ralled up, as have their build-up in the atmosphere(Figure 1). In 2000, fossil fuels accounted for 83%

of the energy supply in OECD countries and 76% inthe rest of the world. Until now, emissions of green-house gases into the atmosphere have come over-whelmingly from industrialised countries. However,this trend has been shifting over the past two decades.

Current climate change actions being undertaken bythe world community are largely based on theagreement set out in the UNFCCC. The ultimateobjective of the UNFCCC, as set out in Article 2, isthe “stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrationsin the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dan-gerous anthropogenic interference with the climatesystem”. As a first step towards this goal, Parties tothe Convention agreed to mitigate emissions and topromote removals by sinks5 of all greenhouse gases.The developed countries and economies in transition(known as “Annex I” Parties6) were called upon toadopt policies and measures with the aim of return-ing their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels bythe year 2000. “Annex II” Parties (i.e. developedcountries)7 also assumed the obligation of transfer-ring appropriate funds and technology to othercountries. All Parties, including the developingcountries, are to prepare and periodically updateinventories of their national emissions and sinks, toproduce national communications on their climatechange policies and measures. The challenge setforth in the Convention has profound implicationsfor the way the world produces and consumes en-ergy since energy is a major source of greenhousegas emissions. There are currently 194 Parties to theConvention, which entered into force in March1994.

5 A “sink” is any process, activity or mechanism that removes agreenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gasfrom the atmosphere.

6 The “Annex I” Parties to the UNFCCC are: Australia, Austria,Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark,European Economic Community, Estonia, Finland, France,Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Lat-via, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nor-way, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, SlovakRepublic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, theUnited Kingdom and the United States.

7 The original “Annex II” Parties to the UNFCCC are: Australia,Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, European EconomicCommunity, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ire-land, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand,Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, theUnited Kingdom and the United States. Turkey was deletedfrom Annex II as of 28 June 2002, but is still included in Annex IIstatistics in this publication.

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xix


Figure 1. Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion, Cement Manufacture,and Gas Flaring* by Major World Region (1870-1998)

Source: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2001. Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions. In Trends:A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

* Emissions from cement and gas flaring are included for reference: fossil fuel combustion accounts for about 96% of the total.

With data now available for year 2000 emissions, itis possible to assess countries’ performance againstthe hortatory goals set in the UNFCCC. Based onstatistics derived exclusively from energy relatedCO2 emissions, Annex I countries have collectivelyexceeded their 1990 levels – albeit by only about1.1%. In fact, if emissions of other gases are in-cluded, emissions totals are indeed below the levelof the UNFCCC aim. However, as Table 2 indicates,the majority of the reduction is derived from coun-tries with economies in transition: collectively, theAnnex II Parties have seen their emissions rise by13%. A further elaboration of these trends is de-tailed in Part A.

In part responding to the evidence for continuingincreases in emissions, as well as to more robustscience on climate change, the Conference of theParties to the UNFCCC (meeting in Berlin in 1995)agreed that additional actions were needed to com-bat the threat. In 1997, the Parties adopted the“Kyoto Protocol”. The Kyoto Protocol establishes alegally binding obligation on most developed coun-tries to reduce their emissions of six greenhouse

gases (GHGs); the aggregate reduction is to be atleast 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment pe-riod 2008-2012. There are no such obligations ondeveloping countries.

Emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol weredifferentiated, to take into account differing nationalcircumstances. The targets agreed by Parties to theProtocol are listed in Table 2. Note that the UnitedStates and Australia have expressed their intentionnot to ratify the Protocol.

Much of the text of the Protocol is devoted to ques-tions of implementation. Some of the critical ele-ments of the Protocol are its provisions forinternational emissions trading, for Joint Implemen-tation (JI) and for a Clean Development Mechanism(CDM), referred to as the “Kyoto Mechanisms”.These mechanisms seek to minimise the cost ofmeeting the Kyoto objective by giving Parties theopportunity to achieve emissions reductions where itis most cost-effective to do so. By counting emission-reducing projects in developing countries, the CDMalso seeks to contribute to the sustainable develop-ment of those countries.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1870 1878 1886 1894 1902 1910 1918 1926 1934 1942 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998

Mill

ion

tonn

es o

f car

bon

Africa

Middle East

Far East (including India and South Korea)

Centrally-Planned Asia (including China)

Central and South America

Eastern Europe

Oceania (including Australia, Japan and New Zealand)

North America

Europe

xx - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


Table 2. Total CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion(million tonnes of CO2)

(1) The targets apply to a basket of six greenhouse gases and take sinks into account. The overall EU target under the Protocol is-8%, but the member countries have agreed on a burden-sharing arrangement as listed. Because of lack of data and informa-tion on base years and gases, an overall “Kyoto target” cannot be precisely calculated for total Annex I or total Annex B.

(2) Emissions from Liechtenstein are included with Switzerland, and emissions from Monaco are included with France.

(3) While Turkey was recently removed from Annex II, it is still included in Annex II statistics in this publication.

(4) Composition of regions differ from those shown elsewhere in this publication to take into account countries that are not mem-bers of Annex I.

(5) Annex B countries are those that have emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol (listed in Annex B). Membership in Annex Bis almost identical to that of Annex I, except for Australia, the United States, Turkey and Belarus (The United States and Aus-tralia have expressed their intention not to ratify the Protocol and Turkey and Belarus did not agree to a target under the KyotoProtocol).

To monitor progress toward achieving its goals, theProtocol requires the Parties to inventory emissionsusing internationally-agreed methodologies. TheProtocol also includes articles on international co-operation in: (i) the transfer of, or access to, envi-ronmentally-sound technology, know-how, practicesand processes; (ii) scientific and technical research;and (iii) education and training programmes on cli-mate change.

To enter into force, the Protocol requires ratificationby at least 55 Parties to the Convention, and these

Parties must account for no less than 55% of totalAnnex I carbon dioxide emissions in 1990. As of30 August 2002, the Kyoto Protocol had beensigned by 118 countries and ratified by 89, repre-senting 37.1% of Annex I Party emissions.

In the context of allowing Parties to assess their per-formance, and to determine overall compliance withthe Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, significantdemands are placed upon data gathering, compila-tion and review, as shown in Box 1.

1990 2000 00/90 target (1) 1990 2000 00/90 target (1)

ANNEX I 13 558.8 e 13 711.3 1.1% Economies in Transition 3 687.4 e 2 560.1 -30.6%Belarus .. 55.5 .. none

Annex II 9 871.3 11 151.2 13.0% Bulgaria 75.2 42.7 -43.2% -8%North America 5 255.9 6 192.2 17.8% Croatia .. 17.8 .. -5%

Canada 430.2 526.8 22.4% -6% Czech Republic 153.8 118.8 -22.8% -8%United States 4 825.7 5 665.4 17.4% [-6%] Estonia .. 14.0 .. -8%

Europe 3 314.7 3 443.3 3.9% Hungary 70.5 55.2 -21.7% -6%Austria 56.9 62.8 10.3% -13% Latvia .. 6.5 .. -8%Belgium 107.2 120.3 12.2% -7.5% Lithuania .. 11.2 .. -8%Denmark 50.6 50.1 -0.9% -21% Poland 344.2 292.8 -14.9% -6%Finland 55.0 54.8 -0.4% 0% Romania 166.9 86.4 -48.2% -8%France (2) 352.7 373.3 5.8% 0% Russia .. 1 505.7 .. 0%Germany 964.1 833.0 -13.6% -21% Slovak Republic 55.6 37.9 -31.9% -8%Greece 70.6 87.7 24.3% +25% Slovenia 12.5 14.4 15.5% -8%Iceland 1.9 2.2 13.6% +10% Ukraine .. 301.0 .. 0%Ireland 30.3 41.2 36.2% +13%Italy 400.1 425.7 6.4% -6.5% NON-ANNEX I 6 512.6 e 8 906.9 36.8% noneLuxembourg 10.5 8.0 -23.1% -28% Africa 540.8 685.7 26.8% noneNetherlands 159.8 177.1 10.8% -6% Middle East 568.8 986.2 73.4% noneNorway 28.5 33.6 17.7% +1% Non-OECD Europe (4) 113.9 79.1 -30.5% nonePortugal 39.6 59.6 50.5% +27% Other Former USSR (4) 554.1 325.2 -41.3% noneSpain 206.5 284.7 37.9% +15% Latin America (4) 888.3 1 208.1 36.0% noneSweden 51.2 52.0 1.6% +4% Asia (excl. China) (4) 1 557.2 2 587.1 66.1% noneSwitzerland (2) 40.6 41.7 2.7% -8% China 2 289.5 3 035.4 32.6% noneTurkey (3) 128.8 204.1 58.5% noneUnited Kingdom 559.9 531.5 -5.1% -12.5% MARINE BUNKERS 364.0 460.7 26.6%

Pacific 1 300.7 1 515.8 16.5% AVIATION BUNKERS 285.3 343.4 20.4%Australia 259.7 329.3 26.8% [+8%] WORLD TOTAL 20 720.7 23 422.3 13.0%Japan 1 018.7 1 154.8 13.4% -6%New Zealand 22.3 31.7 41.9% 0% Annex B (5) 8 238.2 e 7 457.0 -9.5%

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xxi


Box 1. Data and the International Climate Change Treaties

Accurate, timely and complete data are needed to establish emissions targets, policies and measures,emissions inventories, the “ Kyoto Mechanisms”, and even the review process.

Defining targets and assessing compliance

• Article 4.2(a) of the Convention commits Annex I Parties to adopting policies and measures withthe aim of returning GHG emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. “These policies andmeasures will demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead in modifying longer-termtrends in anthropogenic emissions.”

• Article 3.1 of the Protocol sets an aggregate GHG emissions goal for Annex I Parties of at least5% below 1990 levels by the 2008-2012 commitment period. Annex B records the Parties’ indi-vidual commitments.

• Article 3.2 of the Protocol stipulates that, by 2005, each Annex I Party shall have made “demon-strable progress” in achieving its commitments.

• Article 18 of the Protocol: sets a process for Parties to develop “procedures and mechanisms todetermine and to address cases of non-compliance...”

These commitments are legally binding, and Annex I Parties will need to prove that they have metthem using relevant data.

Policies and measures and national communications

• Article 4.1 (b) of the Convention commits Parties to “formulate, implement, publish and regularlyupdate national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigateclimate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks... andmeasures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change”. Reporting on these programmes isreferred to as “national communications” under the UNFCCC.

• Article 4.2 (b) of the Convention requires Annex I Parties to submit information on the impact oftheir policies and measures on projected anthropogenic emissions by sources, and removals bysinks.

• Article 4.8 of the Convention calls on Parties to “give full consideration to what actions are nec-essary… to meet the needs of developing countries arising from… the impact of the implementa-tion of response measures”.

• Article 2.1 (a) of the Protocol states that Annex I Parties shall “implement and/or further elaboratepolicies and measures and provides an indicative list of types of policies and measures that couldbe implemented.

• Article 2.3 of the Protocol requires Annex I Parties to “strive” to implement policies and measuresin such a way as to minimise adverse effects on international trade, as well as to avoid undesirablesocial, environmental and economic effects on other parties, especially developing countries.

Monitoring domestic policies, as well as the impact of their implementation on others, will require theParties to collect detailed sectoral data. Time-series data calculated using consistent methods will becritical for establishing trends.

Emission inventories

• Article 4.1 (a) of the Convention commits all Parties to “develop, periodically update, publish andmake available to the Conference of the Parties, … national inventories of anthropogenic emissions

xxii - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


This introduction summarises important trends overrecent years in energy-related CO2 emissions. Theanalysis discusses energy use and emissions trendsin both developed and developing countries. Re-views are provided (in Section A) of the regionaltrends in energy related emissions over the past dec-ade, of various indicators of performance (in Sec-tion B), of emissions fuel by fuel (in Section C) andof data quality issues (in Section D). The full report

is divided into three sections. Part I, on methodol-ogy, includes information on the IPCC methodologyused to calculate CO2 emissions. Part II shows se-lected energy and CO2 emissions data and other in-dicators for world regions and for 130 or soindividual countries. Part III provides summary in-formation on non-energy related CO2 emissions aswell as emissions from CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs andSF6.

and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, using comparable methodologies to be agreed uponby the Conference of the Parties”. It was subsequently agreed, in Berlin in 1995, that the IPCCGuidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories “should be used by Annex I Parties in pre-paring their national communications pursuant to the Convention. Parties that already have an es-tablished and comparable methodology could continue to use that methodology...” The Partiesalso agreed that “the simplified default methodologies adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change should be used by the non-Annex I Parties, as appropriate and to the extent pos-sible...”

• Article 7.1 of the Kyoto Protocol stipulates that each Annex I Party shall incorporate in its annualinventory, necessary supplementary information for the purpose of ensuring compliance with theKyoto Protocol commitments.

Not only are data on emissions inventory key tools in assessing compliance, but the obligations toprovide full and timely data is a treaty commitment. The value of using comparable methods is pat-ently obvious in any examination of the existing highly variable national statistics; the use of compa-rable methodologies should increase the transparency, and ultimately the accuracy, of the datareported.

Kyoto mechanisms

• Articles 3.10, 3.11, and 3.12 of the Kyoto Protocol allow Parties to acquire and transfer any partof their assigned amounts through international emissions trading (Article 17 of the Protocol),Joint Implementation (Article 6) and the Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12).

An international emissions trading scheme will require accurate and comparable data on countries’emissions. Greater detail may be necessary if countries decide to devolve participation to their domes-tic private sectors. Even the process of determining domestic allocations could be very data-intensive.The development of project baselines, as well as the monitoring of the projects, could require signifi-cant data inputs.

Expert reviews

• Article 8 of the Kyoto Protocol calls for expert review teams to provide a “thorough and compre-hensive technical assessment of all aspects of the implementation by a Party of this Protocol”.

It is clear that data availability will be critical for this assessment. Parties may also want to provide theexpert review teams with additional data indicating success as to implementing certain aspects of theProtocol.

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xxiii


A. Looking at the pastdecade: regional trends

The data in this publication are derived from theIEA’s energy-balance databases. Variations in an-nual emissions, especially from the electricity andheat sector, are caused by short-term factors includ-ing weather. For example, 1990 saw a warm winter,so less energy than usual was used for space heatingin many countries and emissions were lower than incold-winter years. Years with low rainfall tend toincrease the demand for fossil-fuelled electricity inhydro-based countries, compared to “wet” years.Caution should thus be exercised when using thedata to extrapolate the future. Interpretations shouldnot be made on the basis of a single-year fluctuation.

The comparison of energy-related CO2 emissionsacross countries and between regions is not straight-forward. Absolute emission levels depend on popu-

lation, the degree and type of economicdevelopment and the availability of energy resources(Table 3). Countries’ ability to reduce GHG emis-sions will also differ according to national circum-stances. Historically – and to a large extent eventoday – energy choices have been determined mostlyby economics, although security of supply becamean important criterion after the oil shocks of the1970s. More recently the global environment hasbegun to influence energy choices. With the Marra-kech Accords of 2001 refining the rules under whichParties to the Kyoto Protocol must operate, deci-sions on using fossil fuel combustion to generateenergy will need to be made with an eye to mini-mising the cost of emitting CO2. While emissiontrends over the 1990s have shown constant in-creases, the rates of growth may begin to decline –and emissions actually decrease in many morecountries – if the Kyoto Protocol enters into forceand is implemented.

Table 3. Growth in Indicators (Percentage change between 1990 and 2000)

Total CO2Emissions

Total PrimaryEnergy Supply

GDP(constant 1995 US$

using exchange rates)

GDP(constant 1995 US$

using PPPs)

Population

UNFCCC Categories

Annex I Countries* 1% .. 24% 22% 4%

Non-annex I Countries* 37% .. 55% 59% 18%

Annex II Countries** 13% 17% 26% 28% 7%

Annex II North America 18% 19% 37% 37% 10%

Annex II Europe** 4% 12% 22% 23% 6%

Annex II Pacific 17% 21% 17% 18% 4%

Annex I EIT* -31% .. -20% -15% -2%

Annex B Countries* *** -9% .. 17% 14% 2%

Geographic Regions

OECD Total 13% 18% 27% 29% 8%

Africa 27% 28% 25% 27% 27%

Latin America 42% 35% 37% 32% 18%

Former USSR -34% -32% -36% -37% 0%

Non-OECD Europe -38% -32% -9% -11% -3%

Middle East 73% 71% 26% 41% 27%

Asia excluding China 62% 45% 67% 65% 20%

China Region 33% 31% 139% 156% 11%

World 13% 16% 29% 35% 15%

* Data for the former USSR are not disaggregated for individual republics prior to 1992. The IEA Secretariat has estimated theemissions but not the total primary energy supply for 1990.

** Turkey is included in Annex II statistics.

*** In these statistics, Annex B countries do not include Australia and the United States.

xxiv - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


Global Overview

Emissions of CO2 from fossil-fuel combustion in-creased from 20.7 billion tonnes (Gt) in 1990 to23.4 Gt in 2000, albeit with significant variationsamong regions (Figure 2). In 1989, the economiccollapse of the economies of the formerly centrally-planned countries of Central and Eastern Europe ledto a rapid decline in inefficient industrial sectors anda sharp reduction in output. Since 1990, CO2 emis-sions from fuel combustion in the Former USSRhave dropped by 34% and those from non-OECDEurope declined by 38%. In 2000, however, emis-sions from the Former USSR countries increased by1.1% from 1999. After a several-year period duringwhich emissions remained lower than the 1996peak, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions beganto increase in 2000, albeit very slowly, with 0.6%growth.

Between 1999 and 2000, emissions have grown inall regional groups identified in this publication.OECD countries accounted for more than half of theincrease (37% for North America alone) with Asia(excluding China) and the Middle East accountingfor 13 and 11% respectively.

An aggregate view of total CO2 emissions missesmajor differences across regions. On a per-capitabasis, the OECD regions emit almost three times asmuch CO2 than the world average, and close tothirteen times as much as Africa (Figure 3). Withinthe OECD, European countries with temperate cli-mates consume less energy for heating and coolingthan do the United States and Canada. Main factorsexplaining these differences are the relative wealthof countries, types of economic development, theavailability of various natural resources and localclimate.

Figure 2. World CO2 Emissions* by Region

Gigatonnes of CO2

* Emissions from fuel combustion only.

** “Asia” excludes China.

Note: OECD membership changed since 1990: the Czech Republic (1995), Hungary (1996), Korea (1996), Mexico (1994), Poland(1996) and the Slovak Republic (2000) all joined the OECD. In the interest of having comparable data, all these countries are in-cluded for all years despite different entry dates into the OECD.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Middle East

Former USSR

Asia** Latin America

Non-OECD Europe

China

OECD NorthAmerica

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

Africa

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xxv


Figure 3. CO2 Emissions per Capita by Region

tonnes of CO2 per capita

Figure 4. CO2 Emissions per unit of GDP by Region

kilogrammes of CO2 / US dollars, using 1995 prices and purchasing power parities

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

OECD Total

Former USSRNon-OECD Europe

Middle East

World ChinaLatin America

AsiaAfrica

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Middle East

Africa

Former USSR

Asia

Latin America

Non-OECD Europe

World

OECD Total

China

xxvi - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)


Emissions can also be compared in terms of theirrelationship with the wealth of a country or region:CO2 emissions per unit of GDP provide an indica-tion of the intensity with which fossil fuels are usedaround the world. Different economies have differ-ent industrial structures which can be more or lessenergy intensive. This leads to higher or lower ratiosof CO2 to GDP, depending decisively on the contri-bution of fossil fuels in countries’ energy mixes. Therelative degree of efficiency with which fossil fuelsare used in two countries or regions cannot alwaysbe determined simply by comparing the CO2/GDPratio. The ratio is more useful for comparing onecountry’s CO2/GDP ratios in different years.

Four regions have witnessed growing CO2 emissionsper unit of GDP since 1971 (Figure 4). For Africaand Latin America, the switch from non-commercialenergy such as wood, charcoal and agro-industrialwaste to commercial fuels such as coal, oil and gashas meant that more fossil fuel is now needed toproduce one unit of output. Increasing extraction ofoil and gas in the Middle East (an energy and CO2intensive activity) and the important contributionthis activity makes to the region’s economic outputexplain the growth in CO2 per unit of GDP since themid-1970s.

In countries of the former USSR, the surprising in-crease in emissions per GDP is caused by the evenmore rapid decline in economic output since 1990.The OECD’s decline in emissions per unit of GDPreflects a combination of growing efficiency in theuse of energy and a general trend away from heavyindustry toward less energy-intensive light industryand services, as well as some fuel-switching awayfrom coal and oil toward natural gas, nuclear, andrenewable energy.

China has seen one of the most dramatic declines inenergy intensity of any country over the past threedecades. While its overall emissions, due to highcoal consumption levels and a dramatic increase invehicle traffic have risen over most of this period,the late 1990’s saw Chinese emissions decliningeven though its GDP continued to grow. However,some experts question the dramatic decrease in re-ported Chinese coal supply, and existing data maywell underestimate CO2 emissions.

Industrialised Countries: Annex I andAnnex B8

Annex I emissions commitments are not limited toenergy-related CO2, but apply to all anthropogenicsources of greenhouse gases and sinks. It is there-fore possible for a country to increase its energy-related CO2 emissions while reducing its overall netemissions of greenhouse gases. In most cases, how-ever, energy-related emissions remain a good, al-though imperfect, indicator of overall GHGperformance.

The following discussion of emission levels andtrends divides the industrialised countries (Annex Icountries) further into Annex II countries, which aremainly member countries of the OECD, and coun-tries undergoing the transition from a planned to amarket economy (EITs)9. The last year for whichdata are provided in this book is 2000.

In 2000, aggregate CO2 emissions of Annex I Par-ties under the Convention showed a slight increasefrom 1990 levels (1.1%, see Figure 5). Using theKyoto Protocol grouping, Annex B Parties were9.5% below their 1990 emission levels, at 7.5 GtCO2 (Figure 6). This was some 86 Mt higher than in1999. The major difference between the two group-ings is accounted for by the United States, but alsoAustralia and Turkey, with increases of 17%, 27%and 58% respectively over the period

Figure 5. Annex I CO2 Emissions

Gigatonnes of CO2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Economiesin Transition

Europe

North America

Pacific

1990 levelsdata for EIT group are not available before 1990*

* IEA data. EIT emissions for 1990 have been estimated bythe IEA Secretariat since data for the former USSR are notdisaggregated for individual republics prior to 1992.

8 In these statistics, Annex B countries do not include Australiaand the United States.

9 The Economies in Transition (EITs) in Annex I are: Belarus,Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia,Slovenia and Ukraine.

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition) - xxvii


Figure 6. Annex B CO2 Emissions

Gigatonnes of CO2

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Annex B (including USA and Australia)

Annex B (excluding USA and Australia)

Kyoto target (excluding USA and Australia) Kyoto target

(including USA and Australia)

While the Kyoto Protocol objective seems withinreach for Annex B as a whole, most countries on anindividual basis are, however, well above their tar-gets. The gaps between the Kyoto targets for severalEIT countries and their actual emission levels – es-pecially those of Russia and Ukraine – are largelyresponsible for the overall lower Annex B emissionlevel. Either additional, aggressive domestic action,or a significant number of transactions under Arti-cle 6 (Joint Implementation), Article 12 (the CleanDevelopment Mechanism), or Article 17 (emissiontrading) of the Kyoto Protocol would need to takeplace for all countries to achieve compliance.

Annex II countries

Annex II Parties, as defined by the UNFCCC, arethose which were members of the OECD in 1992when the Convention was adopted. It thus does notinclude the newer members: Mexico, Korea, Hun-gary, the Czech Republic, Poland and the SlovakRepublic. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion inAnnex II countries have risen steadily since the be-ginning of the 1990s. Emissions grew 13% from1990 to 2000. This represents an increase in the rateof growth in previous decades: emissions grew only3.4% between 1973 and 1990. From 1999 to 2000,this group’s emissions increased by 2.6%.

The emission trends do mask some positive devel-opments: while there was a 17% increase in totalprimary energy supply (TPES), there was a 26%increase in GDP during this period. In 2000, theCO2-intensity of Annex II countries’ GDP reachedits lowest point since 1973. After declining in 1999,the CO2-intensity of energy supply increased slightly(0.7%) in 2000. CO2 emissions per capita increasedby 4.5% during the 1990s, due to relatively lowpopulation growth coupled with increasing energyuse in many countries.

The partial decoupling of energy use from CO2emissions, and of GDP from CO2 emissions, wasdue to several factors. Countries responded to thefirst oil shock of 1973-1974 by reducing their use ofoil in power generation, developing non-fossil-fuelenergy sources such as nuclear and renewable en-ergy, and increasing energy efficiency in vehicles.Structural changes in the economies of Annex IIcountries, especially the rise of the non-energy-intensive services sector, also reduced energy-intensity in total GDP.

Electricity generation has increased by more than2000 TWh, or about 28%, since 1990. However,here too efficiency and some switching of fuelsources have led to emissions benefits: the share ofelectricity in energy consumption has grown fasterthan have emissions from electricity generation,thanks to the de-carbonisation of some electricityinputs. Since 1990, the shares of coal and oil inelectricity generation have decreased, while theshares of natural gas and nuclear energy have in-creased. Coal, nonetheless, remains the main sourceof electricity generation for Annex II countries over-all. In 2000, CO2 emissions from the sector repre-sented 38% of total CO2 emissions from fuelcombustion, slightly more than the 35.9% of 1990.Figure 7 illustrates the large and growing impor-tance of the electricity and heat generation sector, aswell as that of the transport sector, in CO2 emis-sions.

Figure 7. CO2 Emissions by Sectorin Annex II Countries

Gigatonnes of CO2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Electricity, CHP, Heat (1)

Transport

Industry

Other Sectors (2)

Other Energy Industries

(1) Production of electricity, combined heat and power(CHP) and heat. Includes autoproducers (self-generators of electricity and heat).

(2) Includes residential, commercial, public services andagriculture.

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xxviii - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (2002 Edition)

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