science to policy: is there a risk? · risk is all about predicting the future in terms of...
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www.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation
Joint Research Centre The European Commission’s in-house science service
Dr. Stephan Lechner Director Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
Science to Policy: Is there a risk?
Risk is all about predicting the future in terms of probabilities
• Scientists need to express themselves accurately, i.e. mathematically.
• Mathematics are not understood very well by the general public
June 2014 2
Communicating science to laypersons might result in misinterpretation
Taking Science to Policy…
June 2014 3
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Science: Structural Assessment
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Policy: EUROCODES • EUROCODES have replaced
27 national standards in 2010
• 15 years of development
• Collaboration of policy makers, researchers and standardisation organisations
• Protecting the European Citizen
• Interest in Russia and China
Risk: Real Earthquake
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L'Aquila, Italy, April 2009 • 308 killed • 1500 wounded
• 30.000 homeless
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L'Aquila, Italy, April 2009 • 308 killed • 1500 wounded
• 30.000 homeless • Scientists sentenced!
Risk: Real Earthquake
Space Weather: Risk of power blackouts due to solar storms
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Financial Crisis: Systemic Risk of banks "too big to fail"
Cyber Security: Risk of a successful cyber attack
Maritime Cargo Containers: Risk Assessment by automated itinerary analysis
More examples? Tsunami modeling: Risk for coastal areas
Yet more … • Food Authenticity • Pandemics Spread • Flood Prediction • Nuclear Safety • Chemical incidents • Food contact materials • Nano particles • Shale gas fracking • …
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Conclusions • Yes, there is a risk!
• Refrain from "zero risk" statements!
• Listen well to the next presentations…
http://alphonsuspeck.wordpress.com/category/articles/
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