science in forestry: why does it sometimes disappoint or...

Science in Forestry: Why does it

sometimes disappoint or even fail

us?

or

The meaning of The meaning of Occam'sOccam's Razor and the Razor and the

dilemma of science in a complex world.dilemma of science in a complex world.

J. P. (Hamish) Kimmins

Canada Research Chair

Modeling the Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems

Department of Forest Sciences

Faculty of Forestry

PIWAS presentation, April 12th, 2006PIWAS presentation, April 12th, 2006

Outline

• The three major components of scienceThe three major components of science

•• Science in forestry Science in forestry –– a basis for policy and a basis for policy and

practicepractice

•• ComplexityComplexity in forestryin forestry

•• EcosystemEcosystem--level decisionlevel decision--support systems at UBCsupport systems at UBC

•• The power of visualizationThe power of visualization

1. The three major

components of science

�� Knowing Knowing –– descriptive, inductive, experiencedescriptive, inductive, experience--based: based:

““what is and has beenwhat is and has been””

�� Understanding Understanding –– hypotheticohypothetico--deductive, analytical, deductive, analytical,

disciplinary, disciplinary, reductionistreductionist: : ““how, whyhow, why””

�� Predicting Predicting –– synthesizing, integrating, projecting: synthesizing, integrating, projecting:

““what might bewhat might be””

Components of Science

The need to balance analysis by synthesis

Problem, issue,

desired outcome

Belief systemsPolicy, practice,

action

Pre-science

Mythology



Observations,

experience,

knowledge

Problem, issue,

desired outcome

Foundations

of Science

Policy, practice,

action

Induction

1. Knowing (“soft” science)

Induction

Theory

or

postulate



Observations,

experience,

knowledge

Theory

or

postulate

Hypotheses

Problem, issue,

desired outcome

Foundations

of Science

Experimental

observations

Induction

Deduction Hypothesis

testing

ReductionismReductionism

2.Understanding (“hard” science)



Observations,

experience,

knowledge

Theory

or

postulate

Hypotheses

Scientific principles Scientific laws

Problem, issue,

desired outcome

Foundations

of Science

Policy, practice,

action

Experimental

observations

Induction

Deduction Hypothesis

testing


Direct application of

unsynthesized,

reductionist

science

2.Understanding (“hard” science)



Observations,

experience,

knowledge

Theory

or

postulate

Hypotheses

Scientific principles Scientific laws

Problem, issue,

desired outcome

Foundations

of Science

Policy, practice,

action

Experimental

observations

Induction

Deduction

Computer

model

Hypothesis

testing

Predictions

Forecasting

Validation


SynthesisSynthesis

Induction

Scenario analysis

3.Predicting (“soft” science)

2. Science in Forestry

� Knowing – ecosystem classification, inventory, experience

- what but not why

- “rear view mirror” forestry



� Understanding – analytical forest science and its many sub-

disciplines – how and why

- “jigsaw puzzle” science

Productive Capacity of EcosystemsProductive Capacity of Ecosystems

Leaf area and photosynthetic

efficiency

Net photosynthesis

Net primary production

Net biomass accumulation

Harvestable biomass/energy Harvestable biomass/energy (Humans or other animals)Humans or other animals)

Light

Water

Nutrients

Carbon

allocation

Solar energy

Respiration

Litterfall, plant death,

root death, herbivory

Unharvested

biomass/energy

Canopy

Transpiration

Canopy Interception

Rain

Humus layer

Outflow

Soil B

Soil A

Forest floorpercolation

Soil A percolation

Soil B percolation

Runoff

Snowpack

Throughfall

ForWaDyForWaDyA water A water

balance balance

submodelsubmodel

Understory

Transpiration

Transpiration DeficitIndex

Litter layer

Infiltration

Evaporation

Interflow

CanopyTranspiration

Demand

Snowthroughfall

Snow

Air tempmelt

Radiation

melt

Sublimation

Subsoil

drainage

Nutrient Cycling in a forest ecosystem

Plant

Biomass

Available

Soil

Nutrients

Litter and Soil Organic Matter

Nutrients exist in 3 main

ecosystem pools

Fire

Soil

Leaching

Loss

Loss

Upslope

Seepage

Mineral

Weathering

Input

Input

Precipitation

Inputs

Input

1. Geochemical 1. Geochemical

cyclecycle

Transfers between poolsTransfers between pools

Nutrient

Uptake

Internal

Cycling

Foliar

Leaching

Natural

Mortality

Litterfall

Herbivory

Decomposition

Biological

N Fixation2

Input

2. Biological cycle2. Biological cycle

Loss

Harvest

Site Prep

Loss

Fertilizer

Inputs Input

3. Management activities3. Management activities



� Understanding – forest science in its many disciplines

� Predicting and forecasting – decision support and planning tools

for policy and management practice

- what might the future hold?

- large spatial and long time scales

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework

Merchantable Merchantable

VolumeVolume

Ecosystem C Ecosystem C

StorageStorage

Snags (>25cm Snags (>25cm dbhdbh))

Early Seral Shrub Early Seral Shrub

Cover (%)Cover (%)

ProjectionProjection InterpretationInterpretation

StandStand--level Modellevel Model

(FORECAST)(FORECAST)

ForestForest--level Timber Supply Modellevel Timber Supply Model

(ATLAS)(ATLAS)Wildlife Habitat Supply ModelWildlife Habitat Supply Model

((SimForSimFor))

Visualization Visualization

SoftwareSoftware

PolygonPolygon--

BasedBasedRasterRaster--

BasedBased

3. Complexity in Forestry

The art (skill), practice, science and The art (skill), practice, science and

business of managing forest stands and business of managing forest stands and

landscapes to sustain an ecologically landscapes to sustain an ecologically

possible and socially desirable balance possible and socially desirable balance

of values over appropriate spatial and of values over appropriate spatial and

time scales time scales

This is complexThis is complex

The Two Responsibilities of

Forestry

1.1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the To change the way in which a forest is managed as the

balance of values and environmental services desired balance of values and environmental services desired

from that forest changes.from that forest changes.

2.2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new To reject current practices and resist proposed new

practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and

sociology of the new balance of desired values and sociology of the new balance of desired values and

services over ecologically appropriate temporal and services over ecologically appropriate temporal and

spatial scales.spatial scales.

This is complexThis is complex

Forestry is about peopleForestry is about people-- their values, needs and desires

It is also about sustaining the ecosystems on which

these values, needs and desires are dependent

WoodWood

NonNon--wood productswood products

WaterWater

WildlifeWildlife

EmploymentEmployment

Economics Economics -- wealth creation wealth creation

Energy Energy -- fuelfuel

Spiritual valuesSpiritual values

Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection

AestheticsAesthetics

RecreationRecreation

Biological conservationBiological conservation

Ecosystem processes/carbon budgetsEcosystem processes/carbon budgets

Forestry is a complex, socialForestry is a complex, social--economiceconomic--

environmental endeavorenvironmental endeavor

Complex systems like forestry require Complex systems like forestry require

complex decision support systemscomplex decision support systems

William of William of OccamOccam::

““Do not posit complexity more than necessaryDo not posit complexity more than necessary”” ,,

oror

As simple as possible, but as complex as necessaryAs simple as possible, but as complex as necessary

OccamOccam’’ss RazorRazor

Einstein:Einstein:

““As simple as possible, but no simplerAs simple as possible, but no simpler””

So, how much complexity is enoughSo, how much complexity is enough

Levels of biological

organizationLevels of biological Levels of biological

integrationintegration

Ecosystem

Community

Population

Individual

Organ systems

Organs, tissues

Cell

Sub-cellular

The need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTION

CC

OO

MM

PP

LL

EE

XX

II

TT

YY

EcosystemEcosystem

IndividualIndividual

CellCell

-- UnderstandingUnderstanding





-------- PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction



Chinese Fir Yield Decline – an example

of complexity

Declining canopy density – minor vegetation

response and effect on tree growth

Traditional simple (Traditional simple (ClementsianClementsian) model of ) model of

succession: north Vancouver Islandsuccession: north Vancouver Island

Ecosystem

model of

the role of

disturbance

on northern

Vancouver

Island

4. Ecosystem-level decision-

support systems at UBC

Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:

Experience Experience –– the pastthe past

Understanding Understanding –– the presentthe present

Experience + understanding Experience + understanding –– the futurethe future

The question of complexity and

modeling in forestry

� Simple forestry Simple forestry –– timber management timber management -- may only may only

require simple forecasting toolsrequire simple forecasting tools

�� Complex forestry Complex forestry –– multiple values; spatial, multiple values; spatial,

structural, functional diversity structural, functional diversity –– needs needs

appropriately complex models at multiple appropriately complex models at multiple

spatial scalesspatial scales

POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES:

watershed landscape

management model

LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

Trees Ecotone Open

* Is this a clearcut?

* What will the future

forest species composition be?

* How will Douglas-fir

compete with western

hemlock?

* Will shade tolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?

LLEMS: complex

cutblock simulator

FORCEE:

Individual tree,

complex stand model

FORECASTFORECASTNon-spatial ecosystem

management stand model

Visualization

software – stand and

landscape

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Stand level ecosystem management models:

AVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceAVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceNNFORECASTFORECAST

Non-spatial ecosystem

management stand model

Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass

Timber management table:


Individual tree, complex stand modelsIndividual tree, complex stand models

FORCEE FORCEE

A spatiallyA spatially--explicit explicit

individual tree, individual tree,

complex stand modelcomplex stand model

Individual tree Individual tree ““footprintsfootprints””

FORCEE: complex stand, multi-value

simulator

e.g. Boreal and e.g. Boreal and

temperate temperate

mixedwoods; mixedwoods;

agroforestryagroforestry

Light and litter Light and litter

““footprintsfootprints””

Soil and Soil and

canopy canopy ““gapsgaps””



Landscape level ecosystem management model:

LLEMSLLEMS

Local landscape Local landscape

ecosystem ecosystem

management model management model

for complex cut block for complex cut block

design design –– under under

development: development:

NSERCNSERC-- INTERFORINTERFOR

LLEMSLLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management SimulatorLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

TreesTrees EcotoneEcotone OpenOpen

* * Is this a Is this a clearcutclearcut??

* What will the future * What will the future

forest species composition be?forest species composition be?

* * How will DouglasHow will Douglas--fir fir

compete with western compete with western

hemlock?hemlock?

* Will shade intolerant * Will shade intolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?hardwoods be able to grow?

* * Wind, diseases?Wind, diseases?

QuestionsQuestions

Variable RetentionVariable Retention


Landscape management scenario analysis tool for education,

extension and management gaming

POSSIBLE FOREST POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES:FUTURES:

Multiple value, watershed Multiple value, watershed

management scenario management scenario

analysis modelanalysis model

Based on FORECAST and Based on FORECAST and

FORWADYFORWADY

5. The Power of

Visualization

� Analytical vs fuzzy logic

� Visual images as an almost universal

communication medium

� The power of movies vs “jigsaw puzzle” science

Landscape Visualization

Forest P ractices Code Scenario

Zoning Scenario

Year 25

Year 25

World Construction Set output

Arrow Lakes TSA IFPA: Lemon Creek

CALP Forester CALP Forester –– Interactive, 3Interactive, 3--D visualization toolD visualization tool

Science in Forestry Conclusions

�� All three components are importantAll three components are important

�� Policy and practice should not be based on Policy and practice should not be based on

““jigsaw puzzlejigsaw puzzle”” science science

�� Prediction systems based on experience and Prediction systems based on experience and

understanding and communicated through understanding and communicated through

visualization should be used to guide forestryvisualization should be used to guide forestry

science in forestry: why does it sometimes disappoint or...

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