science advances our understanding of headwater...
TRANSCRIPT
Science Advances Our Understanding
of Headwater Systems
Trim the Tribs Research
Les Stanfield
Ecohealth Solutions
November 7th, 2016
Background: 2000 – 2014
• Input variables:
– Fish (species and community); benthos; temperature; baseflow; peak flows; habitat
• Built predictive models based on:
– Land use
– geology, climate, area, etc.
– Barriers
– Instream habitat
– Biological interactions
Most Important Findings!
• Strong Threshold effect at Low development
• UPLAND AREAS PREDICTED FISH AS
WELL AS EVEN A 200 M RIPARIAN
BUFFER!!!!
Catchment MNR water layer
Unmapped drainage
features are
Important!
From Stanfield and Hopkins (2015)
Scale Drainage
DensityMNRF
Water layer 1.6
20 ha 1.9
10 ha 2.9
5 ha 4.3
1 ha 10.4
Other Ontario Findings
• The finer the soil the more vulnerable to flashy
flows, (Stanfield and Jackson, 2008)
• They transport a LOT of food and organic
material to fish rearing areas (Idika, 2010;
Henningar 2012)
• HIGHLY variable across seasons (Headwater
monitoring Working Group, 2011)
• Entombing can address sediment but not flows or
water quality
“The only effects that matter are
cumulative effects”(Merriam pers. Comm)
“
Trim the Tribs1
• Workshop 2013; Funding 2014
Questions:
– Which tribs are most important to
ecosystem integrity
– Which and How many tribs can be
“pruned” before Impacting
1. Hydrology
2. Biota (Fish and Benthos)
3. Ecological processes (sediments,
nutrients etc..)
1. Cumulative effects from alteration of headwater drainage features and the loss of
ecosystem integrity of river networks : http://www.trca.on.ca/dotAsset/190979.pdf
Multiple Approaches 1. Inventory of conditions (landscape
and site level)
2. Landscape modeling that will hindcast
to reference states
3. Quantify cumulative contributions of
Headwater Drainage Features
4. Develop Process based models for
flow, nutrients and decomposition
Cumulative Effects in a Riverscape
Across Scales
• John Richardson UBC (lead)
Lenka Kuglerova,
Brian Kielstra
• Dan Moore - UBC
• Jim Buttle – Trent
Ibrahim Rashid
• Antoine Morin (UofO)
• Bernadette Charpentier
Headwater/forest specialist
riparian health and processes
Spatial patterns, nesting, benthics
Hydrologic changes (processes)
Predictive changes in flows
SWAT predictive modeling
Understanding variance in fish
and benthos
Laura Del Giudice (TRCA) & Les Stanfield
Inventory using OSAP Protocols
Nested Analysis Approach
Study Scale Measurable
indicator/protocol
Predictor Variables
Headwater
Segment (fishless)
Headwater condition -
protocol
sediment/flows/connectivity
Segment Condition
- GIS measured &/or
supplemented with rare
features (GWU, etc.)
Mid-reach Segment Biological indicators
(Fish/benthos) and possible
diagnostic indicators (e.g.,
water quality, substrate etc..)
Weighted condition to a
point on the network e.g.,
f( C)= f(A1) + f(A2)+ f(A3) +I
f= HDF, C= mainstream,
I= local conditions
Watershed Summary statistic for
mainstem (e.g., flows)
Weighted condition to a
downstream point on the
network (i.e., outlet)
Understanding Hierarchical
Structure HDF Sites
Developing Rating System from OSAP data
1
1
111
1
1
12
3
2
2
Fish community unimpaired
3
13
1565
1
15
104
8
14
13
Land Disturbance Ratings
8
Below the threshold (9) but 50 % of HDF above threshold,
3
13
1565
1
15
104
8
14
13
But geology/soils modify response
8
What if it was reversed, would the
stream still be healthy?
Well drained,
Hummocky soils
Poorly drained,
Flat soils
Modeling Fish & Benthos
(Antoine Morin, Bernadette Charpentier)
• Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs)
• Random Forest Models
– Expansion on CART
– Combination of multiple
trees
– Develops Predictions and
Classifications (e.g., abundance of brook trout and
predictors)
– Hindcasting (e.g., obs State- Hindcasted State)
Example from SMARTERAntoine Morin, Élysabeth Théberge, Marie-Ève
André
• Hindcasted State of Benthics & fish
As of November 4th ….
• 20 fish metrics have been modeled using
Catchment data
• R2 range from 0.5 – 0.8 !
No surprise:
• Geology & catchment size best predictors
• Urban has bigger influence than Agriculture
Next Steps
• Complete all metrics
• repeat for benthics
• Calculate hindcasted and disturbance states
• Repeat with HDF summarized data
(e.g., R2catchment 0.50 - R2
HDF 0.61 = 0.11)
ALSO
• Develop and repeat with multi-metric index
• Test space for time assumption ….HUGE!
• Soil and Water Assessment Tool
– Validate against:
– WSC-hydata data to validate mainstem
– Headwater &
spotflow discharge
– Flashiness
Modeling Hydrology
(Ibrahim Rashid, Jim Buttle, Dan Moore)
Reesor Creek near Altona (17.15 km2)
• Reesor Creek near Altona (sub-basin of Duffins
Creek) selected to calibrate SWAT
• Land use is dominated by agriculture; forested
headwaters
• Calibrated parameters transferable to other
basins
21
Observed and predicted streamflow for
calibration period
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1973-12-02 1974-03-12 1974-06-20 1974-09-28 1975-01-06 1975-04-16 1975-07-25 1975-11-02 1976-02-10 1976-05-20
Runo
ff (
mm
d-1
)
Reesor Cr near Altona
Observed
Predicted
• Tend to
slightly
overpredict
total
streamflow
• Tend to
underpredict
peak
streamflow
• Seem to be
getting the
flow pathways
correct
(significant
groundwater
discharge to
stream)
Understanding longitudinal
Sources of Variance
• Established sites at regular spacing along rivers,
• Inventory all HDFs
• Inventory Riparian soil biochemistry &
stream benthos &
decomposition rates
(Brian Kielstra, Lenka Kuglerova)
Lynde Creek (Whitby)
Potential Existing
Wilket Creek
Potential Existing
Credit River
Potential Existing
Land Use Gradient
Summary: Risk Factors
• Geology – i.e. porosity
• Watershed Tipping Point lower than
thought
• Entombing/Tile Draining
- increases water delivery downstream
- prevents water purification
• Special features e.g., groundwater
upwellings are important
• Arterial system for the landscape
Final Vision • Build/enhance a Decision Support System
• Incorporate LID, climaate & wetland
restoration
• Incorporate Ecohealth metrics
• Explore how to implement within municipally
based user pays software
• Future sustainable farming policy
Thank you
Contact me at
Check out:
Headwater papers
http://www.trca.on.ca/the-living-city/water-flood-
management/headwater-study.dot
Modeling papers at:
http://www.trca.on.ca/the-living-city/monitoring/southern-
ontario-stream-monitoring-research-team.dot