school of geography faculty of environment
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School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT. Estimates of ethnic mortality in the UK Phil Rees and Pia Wohland Presentation at the ESRC Research Methods Festival, St. Catherine’s College, Oxford, 1 st July 2008 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032
What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas
Estimates of ethnic mortality in the UK
Phil Rees and Pia Wohland
Presentation at the ESRC Research Methods Festival, St. Catherine’s College, Oxford, 1st July 2008
Session: Research Methods for Understanding Population Trends and Processes using
secondary data
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Introduction-a
Outline of the Presentation
1. INTRODUCTION
• Context and Aim
• Review of previous work
2. METHODS
• Life tables for local areas (plus SMRs, plus survivorship probabilities)
• Estimating the Standardised Illness Ratios (SIRs) for ethnic groups
• Predicting ethnic group SMRs from SIRs
• Adjusting ethnic group SMRs to agree with local mortality
3. RESULTS
• SMRs for ethnic groups for local areas in the UK
• Life tables for ethnic groups for local areas in the UK
4. CONCLUSIONS
•Robustness: check against geographically weighted method
•Robustness: check against new infant mortality data
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
ESRC Project: What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas
Context and aim1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Mortality component: survivorship probabilities
Fertility component: age specific fertility rates
International migration component:
Internal migration component: census migration updated using Patient Registration Data
New Migrant
databankNew Migrant
databank
Projection model:
Aim: to develop projections of ethnic populations for all local areas in the UK
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Introduction-a
Review of work on ethnic mortality
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
•United States: Routine to project the population by race (three groups, White, Black, Other). Mortality statistics collected by race.•New Zealand: Interesting model that project groups with inclusion of mixed origin persons included in both parental groups.•European countries: Use nationality (foreign, native) as the classification variable (reviewed in Coleman 2006, PDR paper)•United Kingdom: self-identified ethnic groups used in estimation or projection models but no ethnic mortality differences recognised
• Coleman & Scherbov 2005: all group mortality rates only• Rees and Parsons 2006: all group survivorship probabilities only• Large and Ghosh 2006a, 2006b: all group mortality rates only• Some cause of death work uses country of birth data• In June 2008 ONS has begun publishing new statistics on infant mortality by ethnicity in England and Wales
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1.Introduction
2.Methods
3.Results
4.Conclusions
Introduction-a
To project populations by ethnicity for local authorities we need to estimate the mortality rates and survivorship probabilities for ethnic groups
Previous UK projections have only used all group mortality and survivorship probabilities
But we know that mortality varies greatly between persons classified by country of birth and from work with the Longitudinal Study
We use an indirect method to estimate ethnic group mortality by using SIRs to estimate SMRs for ethnic groups
Methods: overview (1)
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1.Introduction
2.Methods
3.Results
4.Conclusions
Methods
We use spreadsheets in a new way to compute life tables efficiently for a large number of local authorities by single year of age and sex. The LTs yield mortality rates … survivorship probabilities and so SMRs.
We estimate SIRs for LAs using the Limiting Long Term Illness variable from the 2001 Census.
We then explore use of alternative sets of LAs for fitting regression models that predict SMR from SIR:•All UK LAs•LAs in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland separately•LAs in England with & without high BME populations
Methods: overview (2)
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method 1Using illness data from the census
Stage A compute life tables for all UK LAs: mortality rates
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method 1Using illness data from the census
Stage A compute life tables for all UK LAs: lx survivors
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method 1Using illness data from the census
Stage A compute life tables for all UK LAs: survivorship probabilities
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Stage B Estimate standardized illness ratios (SIRs) by ethnicity for local areas (LAs)
Stage B.1 Estimate SIRs by ethnic group and local areawhere there are enough ill people and total population
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method: Using illness data from the census
Map: SIRs for Indians
Indian SIR
150 to 200 (1)
102 to 150 (102)
98 to 102 (21)
75 to 98 (168)
30 to 75 (62)
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Stage B.2 Estimation of SIRs when numbers are small We used the modelSIR(i,e) = SIR(e) × SIR(i)/100which assumes independence of the national and local effects
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method: Using illness data from the census
Bangladeshi SIR
200 to 400 (4)
150 to 200 (63)
102 to 150 (227)
98 to 102 (19)
75 to 98 (40)
30 to 75 (1)
50 100 150 200
50
10
01
50
20
0
Black Caribbean modelled data
Bla
ck C
ari
bb
ea
n o
rig
ina
l da
ta
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Stage C The relationship between SIR and SMR across local authorities
Illness is linked to mortality at the individual and area scales.
We measured the relationship for various sets of local areas, choosing separate equations for each country
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method: Using illness data from the census
Gender Nation r2 Intercept Slope
England 0.51 52.1 0.48
Females Wales 0.78 43.9 0.37
Scotland 0.69 60.5 0.64
Northern Irland 0.16 71.2 0.26
England 0.63 47.3 0.52
Males Wales 0.56 54.9 0.39
Scotland 0.75 28.3 0.82
Northern Irland 0.40 59.9 0.36
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Stage D Estimate mortality rates by age and sex for ethnic groups from estimated SMRs:
Miexg = Mi
xg × SMRi eg / 100
We assume each ethnic group has the same mortality pattern by age
Stage EAdjust the estimated mortality rates so that they agree with the all group mortality rates
Miexg[2] = Mi
exg[1] × Dixg/Σe Mi
exg[1] Piexg
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Method: Using illness data from the census
SMR Bangladeshi Males
150 to < 175 (4)
130 to < 150 (41)
115 to < 130 (98)
101 to < 115 (146)
99 to < 101 (22)
85 to < 99 (43)
62 to < 85 (0)
Introduction-a
SMR White British Males
150 + (0)
130 to < 150 (1)
115 to < 130 (18)
101 to < 115 (75)
99 to < 101 (25)
85 to < 99 (202)
62 to <85 (33)
SMR Indian Males
150 + (0)
130 to <150 (1)
115 to <130 (19)
101 to <115 (79)
99 to <101 (17)
85 to <99 (187)
62 to <85 (51)
SMR Chinese Males
150 + (0)
130 to < 150 (0)
115 to < 130 (0)
101 to < 115 (1)
99 to < 101 (0)
85 to < 99 (58)
55 to < 85 (295)
SMRs for White British Males
SMRs for Indian Males
SMRs for Bangladeshi Males
SMRs for Chinese males
Results: SMRs
SMRS for all groups
Introduction-a
All people
White British
Bangladeshi
Indian
Chinese
75,000 to 79,500 (0)
70,000 to 75,000 (29)
65,000 to 70,000 (131)
55,000 to 65,000 (168)
42,500 to 55,000 (26)
Survival at age 75 for males
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1.Introduction
2.Methods
3.Results
4.Conclusions
Introduction-a
Conclusions: what has been done
•We have produced the first estimates of ethnic group mortality specific to local areas in England
We have produced the first set of life tables for ethnic groups by local area in England
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1.Introduction
2.Methods
3.Results
4.Conclusions
Introduction-a
Conclusions: checks need doing
•We will develop some estimates of the confidence intervals around selected key life table statistics
•We will compare the method presented here with an alternative based on geographical weighting:
•Estimate the national mortality rates for an ethnic group by averaging the mortality rates for local areas weighted by the population of that group•Feed those estimates into the adjustment step described above
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
1.Introduction
2.Methods
3.Results
4.Conclusions
Introduction-a
Conclusions: what is to be done
•Extend analysis to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
•Develop better models of the SIR-SMR relationship
•Develop life tables for 2002-2006
•Analyse trends and develop projections, variants and scenarios