school of earth and environment, university of leeds, uk
DESCRIPTION
Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology. Prof. Alan M. Haywood. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK. Talk Outline. Inspiration and approaches to palaeo Climate evolution - the last 80 million years On the shoulders of Giants... - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology
Prof. Alan M. Haywood
• Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
• Climate evolution - the last 80 million years
• On the shoulders of Giants...
• Problems in a post-pioneer era
• Data and model uncertainties
Talk Outline
Why Palaeoclimate?
Why?
• Uncertainties highlighted in climate prediction involve aspects of the climate that have changed in the past (e.g. ENSO).
• Palaeoclimatology can assess whether these changes are consistent with current theories of the climate system and if not, why not.
• Palaeoclimate provides a unique test-bed for models that project large changes in the future to be evaluated using true out-of-sample tests of comparable magnitude.
Inspiration and approaches to palaeo- ENSO as an example
• Shift in frequency/amplitude of El Nino
• Attribution to warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases?
- Policy relevant tipping elements
Adapted from Lenton et al. (2008).
Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
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10Climate Sensitivity Earth System Sensitivity
Lunt et al. (2010). Nature Geoscience
Inspiration and approaches to palaeo - Climate and Earth System Sensitivity
Last 80million yrs
Combining data and modelsa challenging relationship at times...
Modelling: On the Shoulders of Giants!The great pioneers e.g.:
Eric Barron Tom Crowley John Kutzbach Paul Valdes
• Established many of the parameters and attributes of the scientific environment in which we work
• We must now add to the tapestry and unravel complexities/contradictions and understand and
quantify uncertainties.
• Reproducing the observed record of variability and change• Reconciling palaeoclimate simulations with climate archives• Assessment of climate and earth system sensitivity
Palaeoclimatology: Grand Challenges