scenario-based analyses of energy system development and

Ram M. ShresthaSunil Mall

Migara Liyange

Asian Institute of Technology

Prepared for12th AIM International Workshop, 19-21 February 2006, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Scenario-based Analyses of Energy System Development and its

Environmental Implications in Thailand

2

Outline

• Socio-economic and energy profile/transitions in Thailand

• Scenario-based analysis • Some current/planned policies favoring

LCS

Demographic profile/transition

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8019

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

ns)

Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant.

Population (millions)

• Total population is estimated to peak by 2040 (75 millions).• Main reasons for slow projected growth rate is due to decline in total

fertility rate and life expectancy improvement.

AAGR :1950-2000 : 2.3%2000 – 2050: 0.4%

5

1.93 1.85

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950

-195

5

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

2005

-201

0

2010

-201

5

2015

-202

0

2020

-202

5

2025

-203

0

2030

-203

5

2035

-204

0

2040

-204

5

2045

-205

0

Tota

l fer

tility

rate

(chi

ldre

n pe

r w

oman

)


Total fertility rate (children per woman)

• The total fertility rate falls from 1.93 children per woman between the period of 2000-2005 to about 1.85 children per woman by the period of 2045-2050.

Total fertility rate (children per woman)

• The total fertility rate falls from 1.93 children per woman between the period of 2000-2005 to about 1.85 children per woman by the period of 2045-2050.

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

Rural

Urban

Source: UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Medium Variant. Values for 2035-2050 are estimated.

Urban-Rural Population (%)

• In 2000, urban population was 31% of total population and it is projected to double (62%) by 2050.

• By 2035, the share of both urban and rural population estimated to reach about 50%.

7

Population by age group (%)

• The number of people aged 65 and over rose from 0.6 million in 1950 (3.2% of total population) to 3.7 millions in 2000 (6% of total population) and it is projected to increase by 21.4% (16 millions) in 2050.

• On the other hand, the number of people aged 0-4 is estimated to decline in the future.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Perc

enta

ge in

tota

l pop

ulat

ion

(%)

Aged 65 or overAged 0-4


AAGR (2000-2050) :Aged 0-4: -0.8 %Aged 65 and over: 2.6 %

Energy and economy profile/transition

9

Primary energy supply mix (Mtoe)

Source: DEDE (2007)

72 74 70 74 77 8086 92

100 103

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Prim

ary

ener

gy s

uppl

y m

ix (M

toe)

Commercial energy New and renewable energy

AAGR (1996-2005):Commercial: 4.2%New and renewable: 2.0%


• The total primary energy supply grew at an AAGR of 4.1% during last decade, from 72 Mtoe in 1996 to 103 Mtoe in 2005.


10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Gro

ss d

omes

tic p

rodu

ct (

ME

R an

d PP

Ps)

GDP (billion US$ at 2000 prices and ex. rates) GDP (billion US$ at 2000 prices and PPPs)

• In 1971, the country’s GDP was it roughly US$ 20.2 billion (at 2000 prices and exchange rate) and increased by more than seven-folds in size to approximately US$150 billion by 2004.

• Over the period of 1971-2004, GDP grew with AAGR of 6.3%.

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

Gross domestic product (GDP)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

Source: IEA (2006)

AAGR (1971-2004): 6.3%

11

• During 1971-2004:• Total electricity demand rising very rapidly: it grew by 8.6% per year

from 126 kWh/capita in 1971 to 1,865 kWh/capita in 2004.• Oil demand grew by 6.3% per year from 124 thousand bbl/day in 1971

to 920 thousand bbl/day in 2004.

Electricity consumption per capita and Oil demand

AAGR (1971-2005):Electricity consumption per capita: 8.6%Oil demand: 6.3%

• During 1971-2004:• Total electricity demand rising very rapidly: it grew by 8.6% per year

from 126 kWh/capita in 1971 to 1,865 kWh/capita in 2004.• Oil demand grew by 6.3% per year from 124 thousand bbl/day in 1971

to 920 thousand bbl/day in 2004.

Electricity consumption per capita and Oil demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Inde

x (1

971

= 10

0)

Oil demand

Electricity consumption/capita

Source: IEA (2006)

12

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

TPE

S / G

DP

(toe

per t

hous

and

2000

US$

)

Source: IEA (2006)

• Over the past decade (1990-2004), primary energy intensity in Thailand is in increasing trends unlike in the OECD and the world average.

Primary energy intensity (toe per thousand 2000 US$ using MER)

AAGR (1990-2004):Thailand: 1.1%OECD average: - 1.0%World average: - 1.6%

Energy System Development and Emissions in Thailand under Selected Scenarios

14

Energy and emissions scenarios for Thailand

• Time horizon: 2000 – 2050• No explicit climate intervention policies• New and emerging technologies considered• Main scenario drivers:

– socio-economic dynamics– energy efficiency improvements– penetration of renewable energy technologies

15

Scenario description

ScenarioDescription Economy Demography Technology

TA1 Global marketHigh growth2000-2020: 7.5%2021-2050: 5.5%

Low populationgrowth:0.02% p.a

Energy efficiencyimprovement: 0.3% p.a

TA2 Dual trackModerate growth2000-2020: 6%2021-2050: 5%

High populationgrowth:0.74%

Energy efficiency improvement:0.2% p.a

TB1 Sufficiency economy

Medium growth2000-2020: 6.5%2021-2050: 5.5%

Low populationgrowth:0.02%


TB2 Localstewardship

Low growth2000-2020: 4%2021-2050: 3%

Medium populationgrowth:0.39%


16

Existing and candidate power generation technologies considered in the study

Technology Fuel type

A. Fossil fuel and biomass based technologiesConventional steamIntegrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)Pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC)Combined cycleCombined cycle – advancedGas turbineBiomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC)

Lignite, natural gas, fuel oil, biomassLignite and bituminous coal Lignite and bituminous coalNatural gas and fuel oilNatural gasNatural gas and fuel oilBiomass

B. Renewables based technologiesHydro, wind, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and geothermal

-

C. CCS Coal and Natural gas

Altogether 18 existing and new power generation technologies are considered

Results and Discussions

18

Pre-dominance of fossil fuels

Dominance of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix:2000: 81%2050: 95% (TA1), 92% (TA2), 93% (TB1) and 87% (TB2)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Prim

ary

ener

gy su

pply

(Mto

e)

T A1 T A2 T B1 T B2

AAGR (%)

Ratio2050/2000

TA1 4.1 7.4

TA2 3.6 5.9

TB1 3.4 5.4

TB2 2.5 3.5

19

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(kto

e)

Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Natural gas Biofuels Hydrogen

TA1

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(kto

e)


TA2

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(kto

e)


TB1

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050En

ergy

con

sum

ptio

n (k

toe)


TB2

Transportation energy requirements by energy type under the four scenarios during 2000-2050 (ktoe).

Energy mix:Share of fossil fuels: 100% in 2000Share of alternative fuels (biofuels and hydrogen):

38% (TA1); 17% (TA2); 15% (TB1); and 4% (TB2) in 2050. Large share inTA1 due to lagrgeshare of hydrogen.

20

Residential sector energy use patterns by end-use services under four scenarios during 2000-2050

Share (cumulative) of end-use energy demand in residential sector (%)

Cooking Air conditioni

ng

Lighting Others Refrigeration

TA1 66.5 14.7 8.9 5.9 4.0 63.8 14.6

TA2 64.8 15.4 8.6 6.8 4.4 68.6 20.6

TB1 64.0 15.9 8.7 6.8 4.6 48.6 15.1

TB2 68.6 12.1 9.0 6.2 4.1 55.8 27.8

Cumulative residential

sector energy consumption during 2000-

2050(Mtoe)

Share of residential

sector in cumulative

total energy consumption

(%)

• Share of residential sector’s share in cumulative total energy consumption vary from 14.6% (63.8 Mtoe) under TA1 to 27.8% (55.8 Mtoe) under TB2.

• Cooking requires about two-thirds of total residential energy requirements under all four scenarios.

21

Electricity generation mix under four scenarios during 2000-2050 (TWh)

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Biomass

CCS*

Others**

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

TA1

Coal

Oil

Natural gasBiomass

CCS*

Others**

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

TA2

Coal

Oil Natural gas

Biomass

CCS*

Others**

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

TB1

Coal

OilNatural gas

Biomass

Others**

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

TB2

• Coal and natural gas: Main fuels for electricity generation under all four scenarios (71% under TA2 in 2050).

• CCS based electricity generation in TA1, TA2 and TB1. (CCS share: 10% under TA2 in 2050).

22

In the reference scenario (TA2), annual CO2 emission in 2050 (1088 Mt) would be 1,088 Mt compared to 158 Mt in 2000. CO2 emission figures in 2050 under TA1: 1,343; TB1: 973 and TB2: 660 Mt.

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 em

issi

ons (

Mt)

TA1 TA2 TB1 TB2

AAGR (%)

Ratio2050/2000

TA1 4.4 8.5

TA2 3.9 6.9

TB1 3.7 6.2

TB2 2.8 4.2

Energy related total CO2 emissions, Mt

23

Industry sector has the largest share in total CO2 emissions after 2020, followed by power, transport and others sectors.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 em

issio

ns (M

t)

Industry Power Transport Others*

From 2000 to 2050:

Power : 37 to 28%

Transport : 35 to 27%

Industry : 21 to 40%

Others : 7 to 5%

Sectoral CO2 emissions in reference scenario (TA2), Mt

24

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

TA2846

733781

371

0100200300400

500600700800900

TA1 TA2 TB1 TB2

Elec

trici

ty g

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

Coal Natural gas Biomass CCS* Others**

2050

* CCS is carbon capture and storage and ** others includes hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, MSW and biogas.

AAGR : 4.2%

• In 2050, coal and natural gas contribute more than 70% of total electricity generation under all scenarios.

• In the reference case:• CCS based electricity generation would be cost-effective after 2020. • Role of RETs remain low (7% in 2050) due to limited availability of domestic RE

resources e.g., biomass, wind and hydro and high cost of solar power generation.

Energy/technology mix in electricity generation, TWh

25

Technology deployment in road transportation under reference scenario (TA2)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Perc

enta

ge s

hare

(%

)

Coventional Conventional efficient Hybrid Fuel cell Electric Natural gasBy 2050:• Conventional vehicle technologies would represent about 8% of total vehicle stocks. • Most the vehicle stocks would be based on fuel cell (45%) followed by hybrid (36%) electric (6%)

and efficient and NGV (5%). • Both hybrid and fuel cell technologies would be cost effective starting from year 2020 onwards.

26

CO2 emissions per capita, CO2 emissions intensity and primary energy intensity in 2000 and selected

future years under four scenarios

Globalmarket

Dualtrack

Sufficiencyeconomy Local stewardship

2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

Per capita CO2 emissions (tons/capita) 2.6 9.2 21.6 6.8 12.2 7.0 15.7 4.8 8.9

CO2 emission intensity (kg/US$,1995price) 0.92 0.52 0.39 0.56 0.49 0.47 0.38 0.62 0.62

Primary energy intensity (kgoe/US$,1995price) 0.44 0.21 0.16 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.16 0.26 0.25

2000

• CO2 emission intensity: 0.92 in 2000 to 0.49 in 2050• Primary energy intensity: 0.44 in 2000 to 0.20 in 2050

In the Reference Scenario (TA2): Per capita CO2 emission increases and is higher thanin the other scenarios.

Environmental Friendly Policy/Program Developments in Thailand

28

- Enforced government fleets use Gasohol

- Gas stations in govern. must sell Gasohol

Formulate policy on utilizing High Performance Vehicles for E10 and FFV

- Spec. of Gasohol 95 & 91- Emission test on using Gasohol 95-Defined gasohol use in Spec. of new vehicle procurement- Requested governments’vehicles to refill gasohol

Formulated policy on fade out MTBE in ULG 95 and promote Gasohol 91 in some areas

Gasohol Strategic Plan

Phase IMTBE replacement

Ethanol1.0 mill. lts /d

Ethanol3.0 mill. lts /d

Cabinet Resolution9 Dec. 2003

Cab. Res. 18 May 04

Phase IIGasohol Mandate

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20112009 2010

Cab. Res. 19 April 05

29

Action Plan on Bio-diesel Utilization Promotion and Development

R&D

8.503.961.760.760.460.360.060.03

7

0.67

9

1.07

15

1.40

35 79 851.20.6Utilization(MLPD)

Bio-diesel Production

(MLPD)

0.60.26

Raw Material

Expanding palm oil cultivation areas: 4 million Rai in Thailand and 1 million Rai in neighbouring countries

R&D on yield of palm oil (2.7 to 3.3 tonnes/Rai/year)

R&D on yield of Jatropha (0.4 to 1.2 tonnes/Rai/year)Expanding Jatropha Cultivation Areas

Community-based Commercial-based

20122011201020092008200720062005

Commercial Scale of B100 Production and Utilization of B5 in the South and the

Central Part of Thailand

Community Scale development and B100 Specification

Establishment

Substitute B100 to

10% Diesel

Intensive R&D on enhancing values of by-products from bio-diesel production

30

Some policies towards low carbon society• Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has a target to

increase productivity of cassava production by 50% and sugarcane production by 66.6%:

• Gasohol95 price lower than gasoline price; Price reduced further recently. Difference of 1.75 Baht/liter.

• Tax cuts/elimination on NGV auto parts• Small biomass waste based power generation to get

higher buyback rate (0.3 Baht per unit more)– 30MW by 2012.

• Renewable portfolio standard set at 8% in 2011(0.5% in2003).

• Local production of eco-car (small fuel efficient) planned• Labeling of electrical appliances to be extended to

additional devices.• Double track rail construction being planned.

31

Some policies towards low carbon society (2)

• Government subsidy of over USc 6.7/kWh for wind power

• Feed-in rate for solar power at 15 Baht per kWh (> $ 0.40/kWh), but cap on total volume.

32

Publication

• Ram M. Shrestha, Sunil Malla, and Migara H. Liyanage, Scenario-based analysis of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand, Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.007

scenario-based analyses of energy system development and

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