Scandpower AS P.O. Box 3,

N-2027 Kjeller, Norway

Risk management in the Scandinavian railway industry

Karl Ove Ingebrigtsen

Vice president

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

What is risk management?

“The systematic application of management policies, procedures

and practices to the tasks of communicating, establishing the context, identifying, analysing,

evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk”

RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004

• Risk management is the human activity which integrates

– recognition of risk, risk assessment– developing strategies to manage risk– mitigation of risk using managerial

resources

Why risk management

• Risk management is a guide to ensure use of knowledge, experience, understanding, common interest, contribution from all to obtain the common goal of the success…

• The success is due to the following benefits of risk management:

– fewer surprises due to identifying all unwanted events

– involvement of all parties give access to experience

– improved information for all decision making

Risk management in Scandinavia

• Motivation and foundation– The Oil & Gas experience– Authority requirements– General safety awareness – Learned by accidents

• Experience with risk management– Formal requirement in Norway since

the 90’– Applied on all railway systems

• Bad risk management in several railway projects

– Loss of production– Loss of reputation– Economical losses– Loss of assets

From Ad-hoc operations to integrated risk management

Ad-hoc• Occasional focus on

different mishaps• Treat symptoms

as they occurs• Less lessons learned

from operationalexperience

Reactive• Identifies causes

to mishaps• Corrections made

on experiencedproblems

Proactive• Proactive strategy

for risk management

• Extensive riskanalysis of theoperation

• Judge riskaccording tostrategies and targets

integrated in the business managementprocesses in the company

Comprehensive andintegrated

• risk management

• Establishment of risk-indicators incritical processesof the operation

• Continuos surveillanceand risk managementfor changes and improvementin the organisation

Risk management requirements

• The specification and demonstration of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (EN-50126 RAMS)

• Risk Management AS/NZS 4360 • E&P Forum, Guidelines for the

Development and Application of Health, Safety and Environmental Management Systems.

• SAMRAIL• EN 50128 Software• EN 50129 System safety• EN 50159 Communication

Railway System

Signaling system

Sub-system

Component

EN 50128(Software)

EN 50129(System safety)

EN 50126(RAMS)

EN 50159(Communication)

Concept (1)

System definition &application Conditions (2)

Risk Analysis (3)

System requirement (4)

Apportionment of system requirements (5)

Design andimplementation (6)

Manufacture (7)

Installation (8)

System Validation(Including safety acceptance

and commissioning) (9)

System Acceptance (10)

Operation and maintenance (11)

De-commissioning and disposal (14)

Modificationand retro-fit (13)

PerformanceMonitoring (12)

The risk management modelsThe RAMS standard

The risk management modelsE&P model

implementation and monitoring

planning

evaluation and risk analysis

organisation, resources and documentation

policy and strategic objectives

a u d i t

leadership and

commitment

review

The main model applied

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

IDENTIFY RISKS

ANALYSE RISKS

EVALUATE RISKS

TREAT RISKS

RIS

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• InternalManagementTrain operation controlMarked departmentInternal bodies, safety officePlanning departmentEngineerConductor

• ExternalhandicappedLabour unionAuthoritiesMaintainersPressTravellers

COMMUNICATION AND COOPERATION WITH ALL INVOLVED PARTIES

Belated wisdom is not allowed

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure

ANALYSE RISKS

Identify exsisting controls

Determine Determineconsequences likelihood

Determine Level of Risk

TREAT RISKS

· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk

Yes

EVALUATE RISKS

· Compare against criteria· Set priorities

NoTreatRisks

IDENTIFY RISKS

· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?

Establish the contextC

OM

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure

ANALYSE RISKS

Identify exsisting controls

Determine Determineconsequences likelihood

Determine Level of Risk

TREAT RISKS

· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk

Yes

EVALUATE RISKS

· Compare against criteria· Set priorities

NoTreatRisks

IDENTIFY RISKS

· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?

CO

MM

UN

ICA

TE

AN

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ON

SU

LT

MO

NIT

OR

AN

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IEW

ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure

ANALYSE RISKS

Identify exsisting controls

Determine Determineconsequences likelihood

Determine Level of Risk

TREAT RISKS

· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk

Yes

EVALUATE RISKS

· Compare against criteria· Set priorities

NoTreatRisks

IDENTIFY RISKS

· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?

Identification of risk by identification of barriers

Reduce the probability of failure

Reduce the consequence

of failure

Technical or operational failure/fault

Loss of critical

function

Accident

Reduce loss

Consequence 1

Consequence 2

Analysis of safety barriers

Design

Maintenance procedures

Operational procedures

Barriers:

Event

Consequence 1

Consequence 2Consequence 3

Consequence 4

Cause 1

Cause 2Cause 3

Cause 4

Cause

Accident

Fault tree analysis Event tree analysis

Barriers

Risk analysis and evaluation – the strength of the barriers

• Physical barrier

• Functional barrier

• Symbolic barrier

• Immaterially barrier

Physical / Technical barrier

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure

ANALYSE RISKS

Identify exsisting controls

Determine Determineconsequences likelihood

Determine Level of Risk

TREAT RISKS

· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk

Yes

EVALUATE RISKS

· Compare against criteria· Set priorities

NoTreatRisks

IDENTIFY RISKS

· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?

Severity Levels of Hazard Consequence

CatastrophicCriticalMarginalInsignificant

Several independent physical barriers

One physical and one or several organizational barriers

Several independent organizational barrier

One organizational barrier

No barriers presentF

requ

enc

y of o

ccurren

ce of a h

azardo

us even

t

Severity Levels of Hazard Consequence

CatastrophicCriticalMarginalInsignificant

Several independent physical barriers

One physical and one or several organizational barriers

Several independent organizational barrier

One organizational barrier

No barriers presentF

requ

enc

y of o

ccurren

ce of a h

azardo

us even

t

CO

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure

ANALYSE RISKS

Identify exsisting controls

Determine Determineconsequences likelihood

Determine Level of Risk

TREAT RISKS

· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk

Yes

EVALUATE RISKS

· Compare against criteria· Set priorities

NoTreatRisks

IDENTIFY RISKS

· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?

The results and follow up

HAZARD log (Database / Excel)• Railway system• Hazard• Risk reduction• Influence on RAMS• Reference document for treating

risk• Responsible for closing action• Verification of closing action

Monitoring and review

Client

Notice

Preparation Opening meeting

Collecting facts Closing meeting

Preparing reportFollow-up

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure

ANALYSE RISKS

Identify exsisting controls

Determine Determineconsequences likelihood

Determine Level of Risk

TREAT RISKS

· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk

Yes

EVALUATE RISKS

· Compare against criteria· Set priorities

NoTreatRisks

IDENTIFY RISKS

· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?

The helpful toolsConcept (1)

System definition &application Conditions (2)

Risk Analysis (3)

System requirement (4)

Apportionment of system requirements (5)

Design andimplementation (6)

Manufacture (7)

Installation (8)

System Validation(Including safety acceptance

and commissioning) (9)

System Acceptance (10)

Operation and maintenance (11)

De-commissioning and disposal (14)

Modificationand retro-fit (13)

PerformanceMonitoring (12)

implementation and monitoring

planning

evaluation and risk analysis

organisation, resources and documentation

policy and strategic objectives

a u d i t

leadership and

commitment

review

COM

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ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

IDENTIFY RISKS

ANALYSE RISKS

EVALUATE RISKS

TREAT RISKS

RISK

ASS

ESSM

ENT