sbsp an opportunity for strategic security

8/3/2019 Sbsp an Opportunity for Strategic Security

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Space-Based Solar PowerAn Opportunity for Strategic Security


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Outline

Trends of Concern

Space-Based Solar Power

DoD, National, and International Impact

The Role of U.S. Government Leadership


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The Energy Challenge

Our Generations Challenge

When asked shortlyafter WWII:

Prof Einstein,what do you seeas the greatest

threat to

mankind?

His prompt reply:

Exponentialgrowth.


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Trends of Concern

Asia56%

Africa13%

Middle East3%

Western Europe5%Eastern Europe

7%Our Hemisphere

13%(US = 4%)

By 2025, the world will have added 2 billion more people,56%of the global population will be inAsia, and 66%will live in urban areas along the coasts

Increased CO2 production may alter the Earthsclimate, possibly causing:

Rising ocean levels and loss of coastal areas

More intense tropical storms & humanitarian ops

Agricultural climate changecausing migration, andshifts in power, ethnic & land based conflict

Climate Change

Population

American Competitiveness

The U.S. is losing globalmarket share & leadership

R&D investments & skilledworkforce are declining

"a major workforce crisis in the aerospace industryathreat to national security and the U.S. ability tocontinue as a world leader.

Energy

Energy growth tracks w/ population & economic growth

Liquid fossil fuels may peakbefore alternatives come online causing inability for supply to match demand,shortages & economic shock,instability / state failure,

and great power competition

Three energy concerns: 1) mobility fuels, 2) base-loadelectricity, 3) peak-use electricity
http://www.aero-space.nasa.gov/tf/aero_blueprint/1_2_c.html


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Future Energy Options Must Be

Following wood, coal, and oil, the 4th energy must be*:

Non-depletable - to prevent resource conflicts

Environmentally clean to permit a sustainable future

[Continuously] Available to provide base-load security for everyone

In a usable form to permit efficient consumption & minimal infrastructure

Low cost - to permit constructive opportunity for all populations

A portfolio of substantial investments are needed, but options in thenext 20-30 years are limited

* Adapted from Dr. Ralph Nansens book, Sun Power

Source Clean Safe Reliable Base-load

Fossil Fuel No Yes Decades remaining Yes

Nuclear No Yes Fuel Limited Yes

Wind Power Yes Yes Intermittent No

Ground Solar Yes Yes Intermittent No

Hydro Yes Yes Drought; Complex Scheduling

Bio-fuels Yes Yes Limited Qty Competes w/Food

Space Solar Yes Yes Yes Yes


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That Directly Addresses Global Energy Security Concerns?

Can Deliver Power to Worlds Energy Rich and Poor Alike

ProvidesA Truly Sustainable & Clean Energy Path Thru 21st Century

While Enhancing U.S. Competitiveness and Export Opportunities?

Todays U.S. Technical Leadership Can Become Economic Boom

(Space Carrying Trade, Energy Export, Material Science, Robotics,)

With Pre-existing U.S. Public Support?

2002 American Space Use Poll - #1: Space Energy #2: Planetary Defense

That Propels A Respected U.S. International Leadership Image?

Demonstrating a Global Solution to a Global Problem

And Responds to the Interests of Both Political Parties?

Benefiting Conservative Business Interests

Benefiting Liberal Social & Environmental Interests


But What If National Leaders Had A Solution


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Capabilities and Challenges

What is Space Solar Power?

Solar Energy iscaptured in space

by large photovoltaic arrays andtransmitted via a coherentmicrowave or laser beam to an Earthreceiver where it is converted intoeither base-load electric power,low-intensity charging power, or

synthetic fuels Sunlight captured in space is many

times more effectivein providingcontinuous base loadpowercompared to a solar array on the Earth

SBSP has been studied since 1970s

by DOE, NASA, ESA, and JAXA, buthas generallyfallen through thecracksbecause no organization isresponsible for both SpacePrograms and Energy Security

Space Solar

Solar Intensity1,366 W/m2

Solar Intensity1,000 W/m2

No Night

Night Loss

Min Weather

Weather Loss

Ground Solar


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Export Markets

SBSP

Stable Population


Invest, Survive, Flourish and Grow A Future History

Wireless PowerTransmission

OMV

IndustrializationTourism

Stellar Probe

HurricaneDiversion

AsteroidDefense

Space RadarTraffic Control

Dredge Harbor

Beamed

Propulsion

Sustainable Civilization

Nations developLess Poverty

DemographicTransitionReduce GHG

Reduce Conflict

Stable Climate

Tether

Telecom

Travel

ReusableLaunch Vehicle

Directed Energy

ISRU

EnergyInfrastructure

Clean Energy

Growth in GDP


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SBSP Economic Opportunities

Energy Sales

U.S. Energy Companies & Utilitiesas Global Market Suppliers of Clean Energy Space Access

Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) for Rapid/Low-Cost SpaceAccess (


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SBSP National Security Benefits

Space Access and Maneuver

RLV Development for Operationally Responsive Space

Increased technical readiness for Space Tethers

Surveillance

High Power and Large Aperture development for Space Radar

Space Structures

Higher efficiency and Lighter Weight Solar Cells

Increased technical readiness for Membrane &Solar Dynamic Structures

Industrial and Science & Technology Capabilities

Preservation of a Robust Aerospace Industry

Science and Engineering Educational emphasis

Advanced Robotics and Unmanned Systems

Operational Maneuver on Earth

Increased technical readiness for Direct Beaming of Transmitted Power

Electricity-to-Fuel Conversion competence


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DoD SBSP Energy Applications

24/7 Off-Grid Garrison Base Power

5 - 15 MW/day rectenna

24/7 Deployed Base Power & Fuel

5-8 MW continuous requirement

JP-8 via Sabatier & refining processes

Floating rectenna = sea base capability

Humanitarian/Nation Building Power Defendable electrical power supply

Energy w/low infrastructure cost/time

Mobile Platform/Soldier Power

Direct beaming to air or seaborne platforms

Low-power beaming for soldier recharge

Enables permanent surveillance/ops Space Applications

Satellite power/maneuver

Space-based radar

Debris de-orbit

Courtesy of Raytheon

Courtesy of Northrop Grumman


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NRC-ValidatedNASA Fresh-Look &

SERT Studies

40% Efficient Solar Cells! Materials / Nanotechnology Radar & Laser Technology Robotics / In-SpaceConstruction & Servicing

Deployable / GossamerStructures

Thermal Protection Tethers

Technology!


If this has been looked at before, whats changed?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4f/Nrel_best_research_pv_cell_efficiencies.png


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If this has been looked at before, whats changed?


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Security & the Space Solar Power Option

Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) is an attractive long-term technology option that involves a compellingsynergybetween Energy Security, SpaceSecurity, and National Security

Japan, China, India & EU already see the potential

The most significant technical challenges are the

development of Low-cost re-usable space access

Demonstration ofspace-to-Earth power beaming

Efficient and light space-qualified solar arrays

Space Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing, and

Large in-space structures

These are in areas that already interest the DoDand others and with modest departures tocurrent R&D efforts could retire many of thetechnical barriers to Space-Based Solar Power


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Proposed Vision & Objectives of Space Solar Power

AssuredU.S. Preeminence

in Space Access andOperations throughDramatic Advances in

Transformational SpaceCapabilities

Innovation thatCreates Novel Technologiesand Systems Enabling New,

Highly ProfitableIndustries on Earth

and in Space

Assured Energy Securityfor the U.S. and Its Allies

through Affordable & AbundantSpace Solar Power

with First Power within 25 years

- VISION -

The United States and Partnersenablewithin the next 20 yearsthe development and deployment of

affordable Space Solar Powersystems that assure the long-term,sustainable energy security of the

U.S. and all mankind


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A Potential Action Plan

Space-Based Solar Power

Should be re-evaluated for technical feasibility and deliverability in astrategically relevant period (other nations have stated goals & started R&D)

May offer significant &unique energy security benefits in an internationalcontext

Requires only a relatively modest additional investment to address keybarriers

Represents a small departure from existing U.S. (DOD, DOE, NASA)

programsbut involves tremendous synergies with other national goals

The U.S. may want to consider a major SBSP program

U.S. Government can play a significant role because its responsibilities andprograms straddle energy, security, and space

Next Steps (Action Items/Options):

(A) NSSO initial situation-assessment architecture study through Sep 2007 (O) Sponsor a fast-paced directedquick-look study (3-4 months; $500K)

(O) If the results are positive, a larger scale,seedling-type study should beundertaken to add legitimacy (12 months: $2M)

(O) Results would inform a range ofdecisions by NLT 2009

(O) Form a national SBSP organization w/concept demos in 5-7 years


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Development Steps for Consideration

Quick Look Study [4-months, $500K]

State-of-the-art review using existing NASA modeling tools Seedling Study [12-months; $2M]

Technical, financial, environmental, organizational risk-retirementroadmaps

Identify legitimate SBSP development partner groups

Build a credible business case

Private/Public SBSP Corporation Congressionally approved entity using successful Commsat model

Concept Demonstrations [5-7 years]

Should include international & entrepreneurial partnership where able

DARPA-led w/NASA, DOE, NSF & DoD collaboration

Ground-to-ground high-power microwave or laser transmission Ground-to-aerostat-to-ground microwave or laser retransmission

LEO- and GEO-to-Earth power transmission

Space-to-space power transmission

Orbital maneuver & space infrastructure technologies

Low-cost space access technology development and flight demonstrations


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Joining Government, Commercial, & Intl SBSP Interests

DOESolar Cells

TerrestrialDistribution

Robotics, Materials, Computational Intelligence,Lasers, Chips, WPT

NSF

DARPANatl Labs; Academia

DoD NASASpace

Structures

Tethers

O&M

Private InvestmentEnergy, Aerospace, Telecom, Venture

International Intelsat-TypeCorporation

Energy & Launch Services

RLVWPT

We Do These Things Not Because They Are Easy,but Because they Are Hard

- President John F. Kennedy

- VISION -The United States and Partners

enablewithin the next 20yearsthe development and

deployment of affordable SpaceSolar Power systems that assure

the long-term, sustainableenergy security of the U.S. and

all mankind


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Conclusion

Space-Based Solar Power A Strategic Opportunity for America

Energy Security Environmental Security

National NeedsEconomic Competitiveness

SPACE-

BASEDSOLARPOWER

Bring feasibility to the attention of natl leadership - highlight USGs enabling role
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.lib.uct.ac.za/govpubs/images/USComp.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.lib.uct.ac.za/govpubs/NewMay2006.htm&h=1245&w=963&sz=140&hl=en&sig2=21n9siBhm8n1sZGLH96mzg&start=13&tbnid=Gh6K67YpwBXlyM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=116&ei=oZElRfa4G8qGatG0zLEM&prev=/images%3Fq%3Damerican%2Bcompetitiveness%2Binitiative%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3Dhttp://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://research.amnh.org/~tyson/images/publications/AeroComFinalReportCover.jpg&imgrefurl=http://research.amnh.org/~tyson/publications/AeroCommissionFinalReport.html&h=792&w=611&sz=93&hl=en&sig2=tJGxrF3PSdVcQ_NKTEci1A&start=1&tbnid=a5bQ-P0gge3EoM:&tbnh=143&tbnw=110&ei=kJElRb6_N8CaaZW8yJgM&prev=/images%3Fq%3Daerospace%2Bcommission%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DG


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Back-Up Slides


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The Potential of Space Solar Power

Broad Public Support

Over the years, a number of goals have been

proposed for the U.S. space program includingmissions to Mars (Zubrin 1996), spacecolonization (O'Neill 1976), a return to themoon (Spudis 1996), and space tourism(David 2004). The purpose of thisexploratory study was to measure the levelof public interest in different space goals.

Two goals stood out far beyond all others.The first of these goals was developing thecapability of using Space-Based Solar Power(SBSP) or space energy to meet the nation'senergy needs. In 2002 32 percent, nearly 1/3of the respondents, supported this goal. In2005, 35 percent, again nearly 1/3 of

respondents, supported the development ofSBSP. The second goal that appeared toreceive broad support was developing thetechnology to deflect asteroids or cometsthat might threaten the Earth with impact(planetary defense).

2002 Survey - National Space Goals

2002200

5

Space Goal

32% 35%Build satellites in Earth orbit tocollect solar energy to beam toutilities on Earth

23% 17%Develop the technology to deflectasteroids or comets that mightdestroy the Earth

4% 10% Send humans to Mars

2% 7% Search for life on other planets

6% 7% Build a human colony in space

5% 4%Build a base on the moon forhumans to use for exploration of themoon

3% 6%Develop a passenger rocket to send

tourists into space

11% 2%None of the above, we should stopspending money on space

13% 10% No Opinion

1% 2% None of the above

Matula & Loveland, 2006


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SBSP is most like Hydroelectric

High Capital Costs

Long Payback

No Fossil Fuel Feed

Renewable

2.07 GW (peak)

High Capital Costs

Long Payback

No Fossil Fuel Feed

Renewable

2.5 GW (sustained)


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How big is the SBSP resource?

Annual WorldEnergy Demand

(All Forms)

Remaining Oil Reserveof 1.285 TBBL= 249.4 TW-yrs

More and more of this oil will have to beused to recover remaining reserves

All Recoverable Oil

~250 TW-yrs

363 TW-yrsTotal area of a cylinder of 1km width andperimeter at GEO (w*2*pi*r). In reality, youwould not build a ring, and individualpowersats could be turned normal to theSun. However a ring establishes the maxupper limit of energy and is a goodapproximation. For a ring, max limit ofactual radiation available in a 1km bandmust be reduced by self-shielding (pi/2),and perhaps worst inclination degrees

(cosine of 23 degrees = .92)

15 TW (2007)30 TW (2025)50 TW (2050)

Annual energy Availablein just 1 km of GEO

~212TW-yrs

Annual Oil Production ~8TW-yr

Annual Energy-to-Grid On-Earth 21 TW

assuming 10% Solar-to-Grid of 1 km


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Drilling Up: How large is the GEO solar resource?

Every Kilometer-wide band at GEO receives nearly as much energy perannum as the content of the entire remaining oil 1.28 T BBls of oil

remaining

1 year x 1 km wide band

212 TW-yearsAll Remaining Oil Resource 250 TW-years

1km


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How many 5GW SPS would it take to displace generating capacity?

Nigeria 1

North Korea 1.5

Burma 1.5

U.S.A. Annual Growth 1-2

Venezuela 4 Thailand 5

Mexico 10

South Korea 10

Africa 20

India 23

Japan 52

China 68

U.S.A. Base-Load 69

OECD Europe 150

U.S.A. Total Capacity 200

World Today 742

Electric Gen only

World 2100 10,000

All Energy for projectedpopulation at DevelopedLifestyle (50TW)


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The Limits of SBPS

Assuming Each SPS delivers 5GW: It would require up to 4 SPS to built per year to meet current annual

growth in US Electrical Demand (2% of 1 TW, or 20 GW) It would require 200 SPS to replace current US Generating Capacity

of 1 TW (70% Fossil Fuels, 50% Coal) It would require 742 SPS to meet todays World Electrical Demand of

3.7TW, spaced one every 357 km It would require 10 to replace current generating capacity of Mexico or

South Korea;1 for Nigeria, 4 for venezuela, 5 Thailand, 20 doubles all africa, It would require 10,000 SPS to meet the Total Energy Demand of the

World in 2100, estimated to be 50TW (50,000GW, or 5KWe foreach of 10 billion people)

5 GW


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NRC ReportPeterGlaserProposes

NASAFresh

Look

NASA

SERT

NASA / DOE

studies

NRC

ESA

Study

JapanMETI/JASDA

Stu

dy

RLV

X-33DC-X

TAV

Reference Design

A New Approach

Space Power Feasibility Evolution

N

ASA/NSF

J

IETSBSP
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Does this look like an energy project to you?

$.7 1.2B first unit cost($6-10B Development)

$1 - 5B

It should. Think of an RLV as an energy mining platform.The way to energy security is through space.

=

sbsp an opportunity for strategic security

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