sayre | morris seventh edition fiscal policy chapter 7 7-1© 2012 mcgraw-hill ryerson limited
TRANSCRIPT
SAYRE | MORRIS Seventh Edition
Fiscal Policy
CHAPTER 7
7-1© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
Fiscal Policy • Government’s approach toward its own spending
and taxation
• Minister of finance brings down annual budget in Parliament each spring
• Contains estimates of government’s revenues and expenditures
7-2© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
Fiscal Policy
Table 7.1
Federal Government Budget Year Ending March 2010
6-3© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
REVENUES Personal income taxes 103.9Corporate and other income taxes 36.0E.I. premiums 16.8GST and excise and energy taxes 40.6Nontax revenues 21.6Total Revenues 218.6OUTLAYS Transfers to persons 68.6Spending grants to other levels of govt 57.0Public debt charges 29.4Direct program spending 119.2Total Outlays 274.2Projected Budget Plan Deficit 55.6Source: Data derived by authors from information found in Department of Finance; Annual Report to the Government 2009-2010. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Public Works and Government Services, 2010.
Net Tax Revenue • total tax revenue received by government less
transfer payments
Budget Balance • the difference between net tax revenues and
government spending
7-4© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
Fiscal Policy
NTR = tax revenue transfer payments
Budget Balance = NTR - G
Budget Surplus • net tax revenue in excess of government spending on
goods and services
Budget Deficit • government spending on goods and services in
excess of net tax revenues
7-5© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
Fiscal Policy
National Debt • the sum of the federal government’s budget deficits
less its surpluses
Balanced Budget • the equality of net tax revenues and government
spending on goods and services
7-6© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
Fiscal Policy
Table 7.2
Net National Debt (current $ billion)
6-7© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
Year Budget Surplus Budget Deficit Net National Debt
1940 — 0.1 3.3 1963 — 0.8 15.7 1973 — 1.9 24.0 1983 — 29.0 136.7 1993 — 39.0 449.0 1997 — 8.7 562.9 1998 3.0 — 559.9 1999 5.8 — 554.1 2000 14.3 — 539.9 2001 19.9 — 520.0 2002 8.0 — 511.9 2003 6.6 — 505.3 2004 9.1 — 496.2 2005 1.5 — 494.7 2006 13.2 — 481.5 2007 13.8 — 467.3 2008 9.6 — 457.62009 — −5.8 463.72010 — −55.6 519.1
Department of Finance: Fiscal Reference tables October 2010.
© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 7- 8
LO1
© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 7- 9
LO1
The government budget is affected by:
• the level of the GDP
• A change in the amount of government spending
• A change in the amount of government revenue (taxation)
7-10© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO1
Fiscal Policy
John Maynard Keynes: • Developed model in response to the depression
• Based on aggregate expenditures: AE = C + I + G + Xn
• Believed depression was caused by decreased aggregate expenditures
• Argued for increased government expenditures to increase employment and incomes
• Increased spending financed through borrowing
7-11© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO2
Countercyclical Fiscal Policy
Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy
Chapter 11-12
Dealing with a recessionary gap: - raise G and/or lower T- total spending increases to AD2 - shifts economy back to potential GDP
Dealing with a recessionary gap: - raise G and/or lower T- total spending increases to AD2 - shifts economy back to potential GDP
YFEY1
P
Real Y
AD1
AD2
AS1
Potential GDP
G
Recessionary gap
LO2
Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy
Chapter 11-13
YFE Y1
P
Real Y
AD2
AD1
AS1
Potential GDP
G
Inflationary gap
Dealing with an inflationary gap:
- lower G and/or raise T- total spending decreases to AD2 - shifts economy back to potential GDP
Dealing with an inflationary gap:
- lower G and/or raise T- total spending decreases to AD2 - shifts economy back to potential GDP
LO2
Summary:
• When there is a recessionary gap, governments should spend and tax in a way that increases aggregate demand.
• When there is an inflationary gap, governments should spend and tax in a way that reduces aggregate demand.
7-14© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO2
Countercyclical Fiscal Policy
Shortcomings:
• it is subject to serious time lags
• it has an inflationary bias
• it can cause serious budget deficits
7-15© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO2
Countercyclical Fiscal Policy
• the government budget is balanced in each fiscal period
• addresses the shortcomings of a countercyclical fiscal policy
• relies on automatic stabilizers (tax laws and spending programs that cut back spending during a boom and increase spending in a slowdown)
• based on belief that economy will return to full employment on its own
7-16© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO3
Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy
Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy
Chapter 11-17
Recessionary gap: - eventually wages will be forced down -AS increases, returning economy to YFE - also decreases price level
Recessionary gap: - eventually wages will be forced down -AS increases, returning economy to YFE - also decreases price level
YFEY1
P
Real Y
AD
AS1
Potential GDP
Wages
Recessionary gap
LO2
AS2
AS would increase because we know that when a productive resource decreases (wages), supply increases.
Shortcomings:
• Procyclical: pushing the economy further in the same direction it is going
• balanced budget is procyclical in a recessionary gap, because low tax revenues create deficits
• may be procyclical in an inflationary gap, if it is accompanied by a budget surplus
7-18© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO3
Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy
• the use of countercyclical fiscal policy to balance the budget over the life of the business cycle
• no guarantee that size and length of recessionary gap will be exactly offset by the size and length of the inflationary gap
• most governments find it easier to increase spending in bad times than to decrease it in good times
7-19© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO4
Cyclically Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy
• government borrows by issuing bonds
• debt held by individuals, corporations, and financial institutions
• interest payments represent redistribution of wealth from all taxpayers to relatively wealthy bondholders
7-20© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO5
Fiscal Policy and National Debt
© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 7- 21
LO5
• debt increased significantly to finance WWII
• debt increased again since 1970s
• increase in income-support programs
• high interest rates in 1970s and 1990s
• since 1995, Canada’s debt fell to lowest of G8
7-22© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO5
Fiscal Policy and National Debt
Problems with High Deficits / Debt:
• the interest payments that must be paid on the foreign-held debt
• the income redistribution effects of large interest payments
• the reduced ability of government to meet the needs of its citizens
• the possible increased power grabbing and wastefulness of government
7-23© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited
LO5
Fiscal Policy and National Debt
© 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 7- 24