savills vietnam - q3 2009 - hanoi & hcmc market presentation

October 2009

Ha Noi & HCMC Real Estate Market Q3 2009

Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.

Presentation structure

•I. Ha Noi real estate market Q3 2009•II. HCMC real estate market Q3 2009•III. Viet Nam economic overview

•1 - Office for lease market •2 - Retail market •3 - Hotel market•4 - Apartment for sale market •5 - Serviced apartment market

Ha Noi market

I. Ha Noi Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009

Market sectors:

• Total supply: – 74 office for lease buildings comprising 493,000 sq m

– +10% q-o-q

• 12 Grade A, 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C buildings

• 3 new Grade B office buildings (46,000 sq m): – CEO Tower, Pham Hung Street, 13,000 sq m

– Handiresco, Kim Ma Street, 21,000 sq m

– Plaschem, Nguyen Van Cu Street, 12,000 sq m

(1/5) Office for lease: Total supplyCEO Tower

Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009

(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district

Ha Noi market

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Hoan Kiem Dong Da Ba Dinh Cau Giay Hai BaTrung

Tu Liem Long B ien Tay Ho0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Net o ffice space for lease (RHS)

No o f bldgs (LHS)

No. o f buildings sq m

• Largest supply in Hoan Kiem District (30%), smallest supply: Tay Ho District (1%)

• Grade A: 21%, mainly in Hoan Kiem District, unchanged q-o-q. Grade B: 54%, largest

supply, +20% q-o-q. Grade C: 24%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

Grade A Grade B Grade CSq m

]


(1/5) Office for lease Market performance by grade

Ha Noi market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Grade A Grade B Grade C0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

US$

/sq

m/m

onth

Occupancy rate Average rent

• Overall performance is worsen than Q2

• The average rent rate: US$28/sq m/month

• Grade A rent/ Grade C rent ~ 2.5 times

• The average occupancy rate: 85%

Rent gap (Grade B & C):

US$9.6

Rent gap (Grade A & B):

US$15.6


(1/5) Office for leaseOccupancy & rent, Grade A & B

Ha Noi market

Grade A

Occupancy rate = + 1% q-o-q

Average rent rate = - 4.5% q-o-q

Grade B

Occupancy rate = - 9% q-o-q

Average rent rate = - 2% q-o-q

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009-

10

20

30

40

50

60

US

$/sq

m/m

onth


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

US$

/sq

m/m

onth


Leasing enquiries seems to be trending upward since July 2009.

(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

April

May

June

July

Augu

st

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

April

May

June

July

Augu

st

Sept

embe

r

2008 2009

%

Upward Trend?


(1/5) Office for leaseFuture supply forecast, Q4 2009 - 2012

•By Q4 2009: more 145,000 sq m, 10 projects

•2010 & 2011: about 350,000 sq m more each year

•By 2012: more 1.1 million sq m, mainly in suburbs

0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

2,000,000

Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012

sq m Current supply New supply

(1/5) Office for lease Future supply by district, Q4 2009 - 2012


• Main supply in secondary and suburban districts.• Largest supply in Tu Liem & Cau Giay District.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Ba Dinh HoanKiem

Hai BaTrung

DongDa

HoangMai

CauGiay

ThanhXuan

Tay Ho Tu Liem LongBien

sq mCurrent supply as of Q3 2009 New supply of off ice space

CBD9%

Suburban40%

Secondary51%

• Total supply: 360,000 sq m, + 4% q-o-q

• 10 shopping centres, 2 department stores, 2 hypermarkets, 78 supermarkets & electronics, 2 wholesale centres and 12 retail podiums

• 1 new shopping centre - Vincom Galleries, Ba Trieu Street, 15,000 sq m

Ha Noi market

(2/5) Retail market

(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type


Suburban32%

CBD12%

Secondary 56% Hypermarket24%

Shopping center16%

Department store8%

Wholesales Centres

16%

Retail Podiums5%

Supermarkets31%

Supply by location• CBD: 12%, unchanged q-o-q• Secondary area: largest supply, 56%, +6% q-o-q

• Suburban area: 32%, unchanged q-o-q

Supply by type• Retail podium: mainly in CBD• Shopping centre & supermarket: mainly in secondary area

• Hypermarket & wholesale market: mainly in suburban area.

(2/5) Retail market Market performance – occupancy rate


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CBD Secondary Suburban

Shopping centre/ Department Store/ Hypermarket

Retail PodiumOccupancy

N/A data for retail podium

•Overall occupancy: 90%-95%, decrease 3-5% q-o-q

•CBD: nearly 100% occupancy across all retail types

(2/5) Retail market Market performance – Rent rate


7

120

20

57

70

50

0102030405060708090

100110120130

CBD Secondary Suburban

Min Max

US$/sq m/month

150

3038

120

2030405060708090

100110120130140150160

CBD Secondary

Min Max

US$/sq m/month

Rent range is varied by location and types of retails.Widest range is for retail podium in CBD.

Shopping centre/ Department store/ Hypermarket

Retail Podium

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012

sq m Exist ing stock Future stock


•Q4 2009: 11,400 sq m•2010: more than 82,000 sq m

•2011: 425,000 sq m, largest future supply

•2012: 204,000 sq m

(2/5) Retail market Future supply Q4 2009 - 2012

(3/5) Hotel: Total supply


• Total supply: 5,678 rooms– Ten 5-star hotels, 2,983 rooms

– Six 4-star hotels, 1,083 rooms

– Twenty-two 3-star hotels, 1,612 rooms

• One new 4-star hotel, Mercure Ha Noi La Gare, Ly Thuong Kiet Street, with 102 rooms

3-star28%

4-star19%

5-star53%

(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade


Hai Ba Trung11%

Long Bien1%

Tay Ho22%

Hoan Kiem26%

Ba Dinh25%

Dong Da15%

Supply by locationLargest provider: Hoan Kiem District (26%)Smallest provider: Long Bien District (1%)

Supply by gradeLargest segment: 5-star (53%)Smallest segment: 4-star (19%)

(3/5) HotelMarket performance – RevPAR indicator


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

RevPAR (US$) 5-star 4-star 3-star

n/ a

• RevPAV across all sectors: -9% q-o-q

• RevPAV for 5-star hotels: -10% q-o-q, largest decline

• RevPAV for 4-star hotels: almost unchanged q-o-q

• RevPAV for 3-star hotels: -9% q-o-q

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) = Average Daily Room Rate x Occupancy Rate

(3/5) Hotel Market performance of 4 & 5-star segment


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 20090

30

60

90

120

150

180

Average occupancy ARROccupancy (%) US$ per night

5-star segment

ARR: -10% q-o-q

Occupancy: unchanged q-o-q

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 20090

20

40

60

80

100

120

Average occupancy ARROccupancy (%) US$ per night

4-star segment

ARR: -5% q-o-q

Occupancy: +2% q-o-q

Average room rate (ARR) = the rooms revenue / the total number of guest rooms occupied.

(3/5) Hotel: International visitors & Future supply 2012


0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 First 9monthsof 2009

No. of foreign visitors (million) Vietnam Hanoi

International visitors• Number of international visitor to Viet Nam:

-17% y-o-y

• Number of international visitor to Ha Noi: -2% y-o-y

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2011 Future

# of rooms Existing stock New supply

Future supply by 2012• Mainly in Tu Liem & Cau Giay districts

in the next 2 years.

• Mainly comes from 4 & 5-star hotel projects.

• Primary supply: 1,152 units from 10 active projects

• Secondary supply: 29,150 units

(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply


Mipec Tower

Sky City Towers

Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market by district and grade

Ha Noi market

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tu Liem Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Ba Dinh Hoan Kiem

Units

•Largest supply: Tu Liem District, smallest supply: Hoan Kiem District

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Grade A Grade B Grade C

Units

Primary supply

•Grade A ( 83.7%), Grade B (0.9%), and Grade C(15.5%)

•Un-balance among product types


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market performance

Ha Noi market

• Overall average primary asking price: +5% q-o-q

• Sold units/ Primary supply Grade A = 27%

Grade B = 60%

Grade C = 96%

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000


No. of units

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000US$/ m2

Primary supply

No. of sold units in Q3 2009Average primary asking price excl. VAT


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market by district

Ha Noi market

01,000

2,0003,0004,000

5,0006,000

7,0008,000

CauGiay

Tu Liem HoangMai

Dong Da LongBien

Ba Dinh Hai BaTrung

Tay Ho ThanhXuan

HoanKiem

Units

Secondary supply

Secondary supply mainly in Cau Giay, Tu Liem & Hoang Mai districts.


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market performance – asking price

Ha Noi market

-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

US$/ sq mTu Liem Cau Giay Thanh Xuan

Hoang Mai Long Bien

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

US$/ sq mHoan Kiem Ba Dinh Tay Ho

Dong Da Hai Ba Trung

• Most increase are Cau Giay & Hoang Mai, 20% & 19.4% q-o-q respectively

• Lower increases in Hoan Kiem & Ba Dinh, 2.7% & 3.4% q-o-q respectively

• The average living space: 7 - 7.5 sq m/ person (year 2008, MOT)

• High income and saving• High speed urbanization• More attractive mortgage plans,

up to 70% value and repayment time up to 20 years.


(4/5) Apartment for sale: High demand

Ha Noi market

Notable projects expected to launch up to end 2009


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Supply up to end 2009

Ha Noi market

No. Apartment project name District No. of Units

1 Project at 671 Hoang Hoa Tham (Phase II) Ba Dinh 40

2 Trung Yen 2 Cau Giay 240

3 Hanoi Indochina Plaza Cau Giay 390

4 Richland Southern Tower Cau Giay 176

5 Lilama Plaza Hoang Mai 150

6 Canal Park - Thach Ban New City (Phase I) Long Bien 148

7 CT1- Co Nhue New Urban Area Tu Liem 72

8 Megastar Dominium Tu Liem 336

9 Dolphin Plaza Tu Liem 400

Total 1,952

By 2012: 10,290 units expected, mainly in Tu Liem (34%) & Cau Giay (30%)


(4/6) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012

Ha Noi market

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Tu Liem

Cau GiayDong Da

Hoang MaiBa Dinh

Thanh Xuan

Long BienHai Ba Trung

Dong AnhTay Ho

Gia LamThanh Tri

Hoan Kiem

Units

No record for future supply by 2012 in these districts



Ha Noi market

•Vinh Tuy Bridge put into operation•Future infrastructure projects

Nhat Tan Bridge

Hoa Binh Park

Le Van Luong extended road

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

Units Grade A Grade B Grade C


(5/5) Serviced Apartment – Total supply

Ha Noi market

• 41 projects, about 220,000 sq m, 2197 units– 11 Grade A, 1,181 units

– 17 Grade B, 819 units

– 13 Grade C, 197 units

• 100 units from Fraser Suites, Xuan Dieu Street, entered the market in Q3 2009


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district

Ha Noi market

22%

10%4%

64%

>200 sq m

150 sq m - 200 sq m

100 sq m - 150 sq m

<100 sq m

Supply by unit size

• Highest market share are units <100 sq m

• Smallest market share are units >200 sq m• The smaller size, the higher market share

28%38%

16%6%

3%

1% 8%

Ba Dinh

Cau Giay

Dong Da

Hoang Mai

Hai Ba Trung

Hoan Kiem

Tay Ho

Supply by district

• Main stock in Tay Ho, Ba Dinh & Hoan Kiem

• Fewer stock in Hoang Mai & Dong Da


(5/5) Serviced ApartmentMarket performance by occupancy & rent

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 200920.021.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.0

Occupancy (%) Average Rent Percent US$/ sq m/ month


(5/5) Serviced Apartment Market performance by grade

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

% Grade A Grade B Grade C

Occupancy decreases 2% q-o-q across all three gradesOccupancy rates are stable from Q3 2008 to Q3 2009 (range from 86% to 89%)

0

10

20

30

40

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

US$/ sq m/ monthGrade A Grade B Grade C

Grade A rent: decreased 11% q-o-q, to 30.3US$/ sq m/ month.Grade B & Grade C rent: almost remain q-o-q

List of futrue projects under construction


1,222Total

n/an/aTu LiemHabico Tower8

2012150Cau GiayHD Plaza Thanh Xuan7

201260Cau GiayHD Complex6

Q4 201160Thanh XuanLicogi 135

Q3 2011506Tu LiemKeangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower4

Q3 2011352Ba DinhThe Landmark (Hanoi City Complex)3

Q4 201084Tu LiemCrown Plaza Complex (X7 Site)2

Q4 200910Tay HoHanoi Fraser Suites1

Est. Completion yearNo. of UnitsDistrictName of ProjectNo.

(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 Future

Stock New supplyUnits

(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply

• Main future supply: in west & north west of Ha Noi

• 2011: huge stock expected to enter market.


(5/5) Serviced Apartment rent v.s. Office rent

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

US$/ sq m/ month Office Serviced Apt.

Gap is narrowing


(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel occupancy

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

% Hotel Serviced Apt.


(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel rent

Rent of both sectors have been decreasing since Q4 2008

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

US$/

nig

ht

23.524.024.525.025.526.026.527.027.528.028.529.0

US$/

sq

m/ m

onth

Hotel (LHS) Serviced Apt. (RHS)

•1 - Office for lease market •2 - Retail market •3 - Hotel market•4 - Apartment for sale market •5 - Serviced apartment market

Ha Noi market

II. HCMC Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009

Market sectors:

• Total supply: 752,000 sq m, + 5% q-o-q.

- Grade A: 6 buildings, 100,000 sq m- Grade B: 31 buildings, 375,000 sq m

• New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza, 39 Le Duan Boulevard - District 1, 25,700 sq m

(1/5) Office for lease: Total supply

HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009


• Largest supply: District 1, 440,000 sq m, 60% market share

• Smallest supply: District 5, 1,000 sq m, 0.1% market share

• District 7, new development area, 53,000 sq m, 7% market share

(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Dist. 1 Tan Binh Dist. 3 Dist. 7 PhuNhuan

Dist. 10 Dist. 4 BinhThanh

Dist. 5

sq m

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%%

Total net area Market share

HCMC market


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

thousand sq mGrade A Grade B

(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by grade

HCMC market

Grade A increased 35% in supply q-o-q


Grade A• The average rent: US$ 63.2/ sq m/mth, -3%

q-o-q.

• The average occupancy: 81%, -15% q-o-q.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

%

0102030405060708090100

US$/sq m/mth

Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS)

HCMC market

(1/5) Office for lease: Market performance Grade A and Grade B

Grade B •The average rent: US$30/ sq m/mth, remains unchanged.

• The average occupancy: 86%, +6% q-o-q.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

%

0102030405060708090100

US$/sq m/mth

Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS)


$US/sq m/month

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

$US/room/night

0

40

80

120

160

200

5-star Hotels (RHS)Grade A Office for lease (LHS)Grade A Serviced Apartment (LHS)

$US/sq m/month

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

$US/room/night

0

40

80

120

160

200

4-star Hotels (RHS)Grade B Office for lease (LHS)Grade B Serviced Apartment (LHS)

HCMC market

(1/5) Office for lease: Office rent, Hotel rate and Serviced Apartment rent

Enquiries seems to be trending downward since July 2009.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug

-09

Sep

-09

Office leasing enquiry

(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market

Demand by area Demand by purpose

35%

30%

12%

7%

2%

12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Below 100 sq m

100 - 200 sq m

201 - 300 sq m

301 - 400 sq m

401 - 500 sq m

Over 500 sq m

4%

9%

9%

14%

24%

40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

From Grade A to C

From Grade A to B

New entrants to B

From Grade C to C

From Grade C to B

From Grade B to B

(1/5) Office for lease: Successful transaction


• By 2012: over one million sq m new office supply.

• Office market could double its supply in the next 3 years.

(1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by year


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Potential 2012

sq mFuture supply

District 1

District 7

Tan BinhDistrict 4

Binh Thanh

Nha Be

District 3

District 9

District 5District 10

Tan Phu

• Largest future supply: District 1, 60% market share

• New supply developing in surburban areas like 7, Tan Binh and Nha Be districts.

(1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by district up to 2012


District PercentageDistrict 1 59%District 7 20%Tan Binh 5%District 4 3%Binh Thanh 3%Nha Be 3%District 3 2%District 9 2%District 5 1%District 10 1%Tan Phu 1%

(2/5) Retail market: Total Supply


• Total supply: 452,400 sq m– 5 department stores

– 15 shopping centres

– 6 retail podium

– 59 super markets

– 3 wholesale markets

• No new supply in Q3 2009

(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type

Supply by location Supply by type


19%

35%

46%

SuburbanSecondaryCBD

1%15%

31%42%

11%

Supermarkets

Shopping Centres

Department Stores

Wholesale Markets

Retail Podiums

US$/sq m/month

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Lotte

Mar

t

Thua

n Ki

eu P

laza

Vina

tex

Plaz

a

Saig

on P

arag

on

Roy

al C

entre

Citi

Plaz

a

Tax

Plaz

a

Alta

Pla

za

Saig

on S

uper

bow

l

Saig

on C

entre

Eden

Mal

l

Saig

on S

quar

e

Mas

ter Z

one

Luck

y Pl

aza

sq m

0

30

60

90

120

150

Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent

• Average rent: US$44 to US$80 per sqm.

• Average occupancy: 94%

(2/5) Retail marketMarket performance of shopping centre


• Average rent: US$38 to US$140 per sq m.

• Highest rent: US$220 (Diamond Plaza) (comparable to mall rents in Thailand)

US$/sq m/month

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Parkson HungVuong

ParksonSaigontourist

Parkson CTPlaza

Diamond Plaza Zen Plaza

sq m

0

50

100

150

200

250

Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent

(2/5) Retail market Market performance of Department stores


sq m

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

The Manor Opera View New WorldHotel

Rex Hotel SheratonSaigon

CaravelleHotel

US$/sq m/month

0

30

60

90

120

150

Approx. Area Upper rent Low er rent• Average rent: US$74 to US$105 per sq m

• Average occupancy: 99%.

(2/5) Retail marketMarket performance of retail podium


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2010E 2011E 2012 E

sq m• Shortage retail space anticipated in HCMC until 2010.

• Demand expected to grow. Undersupply expected.

(2/5) Retail marketFuture supply by year up to 2012


• (13) 5-star hotels: 4,288 rooms,

• (8) 4-star hotels: 1,280 rooms

• New supply: 5-star Intercontinental Asiana Saigon, Corner Hai Ba Trung and Le Duan Street, 305 rooms.

(3/5) Hotel: Total supply


• Most 4 & 5-star hotels are located in District 1 (70%).

• Follow in supply: District 5, 3, Tan Binh and Phu Nhuan.

No. of rooms

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

District 1 District 3 District 5 Tan Binh Phu Nhuan Can Gio

5-star 4-star 3-star

(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

%

0

40

80

120

160

200US$/room/night

OccupancyAverage room rate

(3/5) Hotel: Market performance of 5 and 4-star hotels

4-star hotels:• Room rate: US$72/night, -1% q-o-q. • Occupancy: 54%

5-star hotels:• Room rate: US$117/night, remains unchanged • Occupancy: 50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

%

0

40

80

120

160

200US$/room/night

OccupancyAverage room rate


• To Vietnam: 2.8 million visitors, -16% y-o-y

• To HCMC: 2 million visitors, -12% y-o-y

(3/5) Hotel: International visitors to Vietnam and HCMC by year


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sep-09

No. of foreign visitors (million)

To HCMC (mil)To VN (mil)

Up to 2012:

•1,050 5-star rooms

•1,000 4-star rooms

100300500700900

1,1001,3001,5001,7001,900

2010E 2011E 2012E

No. of roomsFuture supply

(3/5) Hotel: Future supply by year up 2012


• New supply: 10 projects, 3,400 apartments

• Primary market: 34 active projects, 5,620 apartments

• Secondary market: 91 sold out projects, 41,500 apartments



New supply - River Park in Phu My Hung, D7

• District 8: 1,200 apartments, 21% market share

• District 7: 880 apartments, 16% market share

• District 2: 820 apartments, 15% market share

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dis

t. 8

Dis

t. 7

Dis

t. 2

Thu

Duc

Binh

Tan

Nha

Be

Binh

Tha

nh

Tan

Binh

Dis

t. 6

Dis

t. 11

Tan

Phu

Go

Vap

Dis

t. 9

Dis

t. 4

Dis

t. 5

Units

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%%

No. of units in active projectsMarket share


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market by district

• Grade A: 500 apartments, 9% market share

• Grade B: 890 apartments, 16% market share

• Grade C: 4,230 apartments, 75% market share

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


Apartments

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Primary supplyMarket share (%)



Market share:

• District 7: 26%

• Binh Thanh District: 12%

• District 2: 11% 1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

Dist. 7 BinhThanh

Dist. 2 BinhChanh

Nha Be Tan Phu Dist. 4 Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Thu Duc

Apartments Secondary supply

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Dist. 5 Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 9 Go Vap Tan Binh Dist. 11 Dist. 3 Dist. 12 PhuNhuan

Apartments Secondary supply


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market by district

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dist. 8 Dist. 7 Dist. 2 ThuDuc

BinhTan

Nha Be BinhThanh

TanBinh

Apartments

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500US$ per sq m

Primary supply in Q3 2009# of units sold in Q3 2009Average Primary Price

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Dist. 6 Dist. 11 Tan Phu Go Vap Dist. 9 Dist. 4 Dist. 5

Apartments

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500US$ per sq m

Primary supply in Q3 2009# of units sold in Q3 2009Average Primary Price


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market performance by district

• High population: due to high birth rate & large number of migrants

• Apr 2009: HCMC population stands at 7.1 million via Population and Housing Census conducted every 10 years.

• High income and saving recorded• Low debt recorded• High speed urbanization: in every direction from

the city centre.• Banking market: more attractive mortgage plans,

up to 70% value and repayment time is up to 20 years.


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Demand

By 2012: 46,000 apartments are planned for launch.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010 2011 2012

Apartments

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Projects

# of planned units# of planned projects



• Districts 7, 9 and District 2 will be the main future supply (50%).

• District 9 is emerging as one of the main suppliers in HCMC in the mid-term.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Dist. 7 Dist. 9 Dist. 2 Nha Be Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Go Vap Thu Duc Binh Tan Others

Apartments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%%

Future supplyMarket share


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by district up to 2012

• Total supply: 48 serviced apartment buildings, 2,670 units.

- Grade A: 7 buildings, 658 units

- Grade B: 11 buildings, 1,272 units

- Grade C: 30 buildings, 740 units

• New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza, 260 units


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Total supply

Kumho Asiana Plaza

Districts 1 and 3 are considered well-developed supplied for serviced apartments (67%).

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Dist. 1 Dist. 3 Binh Thanh Dist. 2 Dist. 7 Dist. 10 Phu Nhuan Tan Binh

No. of units

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%%

No. of UnitsMarket share


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


No. of units

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%%

SupplyMarket share

Market share

• Grade A: 25%

• Grade B: 48%

• Grade C: 28%


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by grade

0

200

400

600

800

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

Units

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40US$/ sqm/ month

Vacancy unitsLeased unitsAverage rent


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Market performance of Grade A and Grade B

Grade BRent: US$24/ sq m, -2% q-o-q Occupancy: 94%

Grade ARent: US$27/ sq m, -6% q-o-q Occupancy: 64%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 09

Units

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40US$/ sq m/ month

Vacancy unitsLeased unitsAverage rent

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

No. of UnitsNew Stock

By 2012: 1,400 serviced apartments to be launched.


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply by year up to 2012

Oct 2009

VIET NAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q3 2009

•Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.

Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009

US$ Billion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est.2009

Remittance

Viet Nam economic overviewRemittance from overseas Vietnamese (1996 – 2009E)


Viet Nam economic overviewNational GDP growth rate (1998 – Q1-Q3 2009)

0

20

40

60

80

100

US$ Billion

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

GDP at current price 27.2 28.5 30.6 32.3 33.6 38.7 45.4 53.3 61.0 70.0 88.5 64.8

GDP grow th rate 5.80% 4.80% 6.00% 6.80% 6.90% 7.24% 7.70% 8.40% 8.17% 8.48% 6.23% 4.56%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Q1- Q3 09

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Billion US$

Pledged FDI 3.2 4.5 6.8 10.2 20.3 64.0 12.54

Disbursed FDI 2.65 2.85 2.45 3.6 8.3 11.5 7.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3 2009


Viet Nam economic overviewFDI to Viet Nam

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.0

30.035.040.045.050.0

01/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/08 07/08 08/08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09

%

CPICPI - Food & FoodstuffCPI - Construction materials


Viet Nam economic overviewCPI of Viet Nam

Ha Noi Office13th Floor, Pacific Place83B Ly Thuong Kiet, HanoiTel: (04) 3946 1300Fax: (04) 3946 [email protected]

HCMC Office18th Floor, Fideco Tower81 - 85 Ham Nghi street, District 1, HCMCTel: (08) 3823 9205Fax: (08) 3823 [email protected]

Saigon South Office2nd Floor, The Laurence S.Ting Building801 Nguyen Van Linh ParkwayTan Phu Ward, District 7, HCMCTel: (08) 3412 0100Fax: (08) 3412 0199

www.savills.com.vn

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