satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecasting toward flash flood predictions:
DESCRIPTION
Satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecasting toward flash flood predictions: Recent developments for Mesoamerica in the context of SERVIR. John R. Mecikalski, Assistant Professor Atmospheric Science Department University of Alabama in Huntsville - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecastingtoward flash flood predictions:
Recent developments for Mesoamerica in the context of SERVIR
• Overview of CI Nowcasting and QPE Forecasting over Mesoamerica
• Overview of SERVIR as applicable to CAFFG
John R. Mecikalski, Assistant ProfessorAtmospheric Science Department
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Daniel Irwin, NASA Marshall Space Flight CenterHuntsville, Alabama
andCATHALAC, City of Knowledge, Panama
•Fire Detection•Land Cover/Land Use•Forest Monitoring•Red Tides•Climate Change•Short Term Weather•Drought Monitoring•Inter. Scientific Research•Carbon Flux•Hot Spot Monitoring•Disaster Mitigation•Urban Studies
SERVIR Concept Drawing - 2003
• Project 1: NASA/REASoN
– Funding
– NASA – REASON/CAN (5 Years)
• Objective: To Develop a Regional Monitoring and Visualization System for Decision Support for Mesoamerica for Environmental Management and Disaster Support
• Project 2: NASA/USAID (3 Years)
– PASA with USAID – Started in October 2003
– Funding
– USAID
• Objective 1: In-Country regional Hub, centralized repository with decentralized control, country nodes, massive archive and distribution system (MesoStor)
• Objective 2: Land Cover Classification/Change to assist with National Inventories/National Communications
– Objective 3: Climate Change Modeling and Scenarios
SERVIR Web Page http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov
• Fully Operational by February 1, 2005
• Four Main Sections
1. Mesoamerican Data
2. Online Maps
3. Decision Support
4. Visualizations
• GeoIntegrator
• Web Map Server (WMS) at regional node
• WMS at national nodes
• Free service to host data
2. Online Maps
3. Decision Support
•Fires
– MODIS Rapid Response
– Web Fire Mapper (UMD)
•Red Tides (Harmful Algal Blooms)
•Climate Change Scenarios
•Short Term Weather Prediction (SPORT)
•Land Cover and Land Use Change for Carbon Inventories
•Floods
•Other
OBJECTIVE
The key task is to evaluate the relative roles on climate change for Central America of effects such as global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions and continuing land use changes.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Supercomputer
2005201020202025
Climate Change Scenarios
Over the next 20 years, we see warming and drying in both the dry and wet seasons, but the impact is much greater in the wet season for both temperature and rainfall.
Results suggest that human activities in this region could help trigger, prolong, or exacerbate drought.
For Central America, the climate effects due to deforestationare potentially MUCH larger than those due to greenhouse-gasinduced climate change. Complete deforestation leads to a significant warming of up to 4-6 deg C, and a large drop in precipitation of up to 30%.
Over the next 20 years, we see warming and drying in both the dry and wet seasons, but the impact is much greater in the wet season for both temperature and rainfall.
Results suggest that human activities in this region could help trigger, prolong, or exacerbate drought.
For Central America, the climate effects due to deforestationare potentially MUCH larger than those due to greenhouse-gasinduced climate change. Complete deforestation leads to a significant warming of up to 4-6 deg C, and a large drop in precipitation of up to 30%.
Climate Change Scenarios-Results
Visualization Tools for Decision Support
• NASA and COTS
–NASA World Wind
–Google Earth
–Skyline
–Space Time Toolkit
• Users
–Decision Makers
–Media
–Educators
–Students
User Feedback & Potential for GAFFG
• “We hope that SERVIR will continue for the long term, and for the foreseeable future, it will be a basis for much of our work in the conservation of Guatemala.” Director of Guatemala Park Service
• “I sincerely believe that this project is providing a substantial contribution to not only our work in Guatemala but all throughout Mesoamerica.” Wildlife Conservation Society, Guatemala
• “The partnership has been very fruitful for all concerned. I would rate as ‘excellent’ our experience in working with NASA.” World Bank Senior Biodiversity Expert
Integration of CAFFG Product into SERVIR & visa versa
June 10, 2002 27
Involved Institutions
Private Sector
• Cable & Wireless Panama
• EGE Fortuna S.A
• City of Knowledge
• Tierras Altas S.A.
Collaborators
• University of South Florida
• The Nature Conservancy
• University of South Florida
• USGS/EROS
• InBio
• Smithsonian
• Others
Participants
• University of Alabama Huntsville
• University of Arkansas
• Science Systems and Applications Inc.
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies (IAGT)
• Universities Space Research Association
Socios de SERVIR