satellite-based land-atmosphere coupled data assimilation toshio koike earth observation data...
TRANSCRIPT
Satellite-based Land-Atmosphere
Coupled Data Assimilation
Toshio KoikeEarth Observation Data Integration & Fusion Research Initiative
(EDITORIA)Department Civil Engineering, Engineering School
The University of Tokyo
OBS 1998 (2003 unavailable)
NCEP
JMA
UKMO
Seasonal variation ( May - September)
Sensible ( H ) - Latent(LE )-
H RMSE[W/ ㎡ ]
LE RMSE[W/ ㎡ ]
LDASUT 32.0 42.5
NCEP 40.2 68.4
JMA 32.3 79.8
UKMO 35.3 80.1
LE daily-mean ( June)
Obs
erve
d
Modeled
GCMs
Land Surface Scheme
Snow Physics
Model
CloudPhysicsModel
Soil MoistureSoil Moisture SnowSnow
Microwave Microwave RadiometerRadiometer
PrecipitationPrecipitation
Surface Emissivity & Temp.
Aqua
TRMM
Land-Atmosphere Data AssimilationLand-Atmosphere Data Assimilation
Land Surface Scheme
Satellite Data MinimizationScheme
Radiative Transfer
Model
Cost Function
LDAS
GCM
Forcing
OBS 1998 (2003 unavailable)
NCEP
JMA
UKMO
Seasonal variation ( May - September)
Sensible ( H ) - Latent(LE )-
H RMSE[W/ ㎡ ]
LE RMSE[W/ ㎡ ]
LDASUT 32.0 42.5
NCEP 40.2 68.4
JMA 32.3 79.8
UKMO 35.3 80.1
LE daily-mean ( June)
Obs
erve
d
Modeled
LDASUT
LDASUT- GCMs
GCM
Land Surface Scheme
Satellite Data MinimizationScheme
Radiative Transfer
Model
Cost Function
GCM
Forcing
Regional ModelPhysical Down-scaling
Surface skin Soil moisture at MS6308
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
7/3/1998 6:00 7/4/1998 6:00 7/5/1998 6:00 7/6/1998 6:00 7/7/1998 6:00Date
Mvs_MS3608_Ass Mvs_MS3608_NoAss Mvs_MS3608_obs
Surface skin soil moisture at MS3637
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
7/3/1998 6:00 7/4/1998 6:00 7/5/1998 6:00 7/6/1998 6:00 7/7/1998 6:00 7/8/1998 6:00
Date
Mvs_MS3637_Ass Mvs_MS3637_NoAss Mvs_MS3637_obs
Surface skin soil moisture at MS3478
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
7/3/1998 6:00 7/4/1998 6:00 7/5/1998 6:00 7/6/1998 6:00 7/7/1998 6:00 7/8/1998 6:00
Date
Mvs_MS3478_Ass Mvs_MS3478_NoAss Mvs_4cm_Obs
soil moisture
(Surface perspective)
Assimilation No Assimilation
(Atmospheric perspective)
Vertical Wind field
GMS IR1-based convective Index
No Assimilation case Assimilation case
Vertical Wind field
Radar at BJ
With LandAssimilation
WithoutAssimilation
9-15 16-22 23-04
Cloud Physics Scheme
Radiative Transfer
Model
Cost Function
Regional Model
Satellite Data MinimizationScheme
GCM
Physical Down-scaling
IF Jmin
No
Yes
ARPS Model Output (Initial Guess)
Observation Operator (RTM) (Tbmod)
Model Operator (Lin Ice Scheme)(Assim. Parameter:ICLWC, IWV)
Cost (J)= (Tbmod - Tbobs )2
Global Minimization Scheme (Shuffled Complex Evolution) Duan et al, 1992
Optimized Initial
Condition
Cloud Parameter Update
IMDAS FrameworkIMDAS Framework
Tbobs
Precipitation Prediction by ARPS
12z 16z 20z 24z 04z 08z 12z
ARPS Model Simulation16:30z
16:30z 17:10z
Assimilation Window: 40 mins
TBobs AMSR-EInitial Guess
29th Jan 2003
30th Jan 2003
16:30z 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00
Assimilation Window: 40 mins
PredictionStart of Prediction
with Improved Initial Condition
Initial conditionwith no assimilation
2929thth Jan, 17:00z Jan, 17:00z
dbz=200R**1.60 (Aonashi, 2004)dbz=200R**1.60 (Aonashi, 2004)Precipitation Rate(mm/hr)Precipitation Rate(mm/hr)
IMDAS
Initial conditionwith assimilation
3hour predictionwith no assimilation
2929thth Jan, 20:00z Jan, 20:00z
dbz=200R**1.60 (Aonashi, 2004)dbz=200R**1.60 (Aonashi, 2004)Precipitation Rate(mm/hr)Precipitation Rate(mm/hr)
IMDAS
3hour predictionwith assimilation
Cloud Physics Scheme
Radiative Transfer
Model
Cost Function
Regional Model
Land Surface Scheme
Satellite Data MinimizationScheme
Radiative Transfer
Model
Cost Function
GCM
Coupled Soil Atmosphere RTM2004/08/14 - 19:23 UTC
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
6v 6h 10v 10h 18v 18h 23v 23h 36v 36h 89v 89h
TB
[K]
Coupled
Observed
AIEM
By coupling AIEM with atmosphere RTM we get better agreement.
For wetter cases AIEM is sufficient.
Atmosphere-Land Coupled Data Assimilation System
Tb Error
Atmospheric effect derived from AMSR-E vs. MODIS Cloud Top Temperature
LDAS only MODIS/IR A-L Coupled DAS
Integrated Cloud Liquid Water
Atmospheric effect derived from AMSR-E vs. MODIS Cloud Top Temperature
LDAS only MODIS/IR A-L Coupled DAS
24 hour Prediction of Rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau
Prediction withthe A-L CoupledData Assimilation
As an Initial Condition
Only Nesting GOES IR
Coupler SystemCoupler System
Preliminary Design for Multi-scalePreliminary Design for Multi-scaleLand Impact Research by of L-A Land Impact Research by of L-A
Coupled DASCoupled DAS Regional-scale approach by L-A DAS without CMDASRegional-scale approach by L-A DAS without CMDAS
Extent: 40ºE - 160ºE and 0ºN - 60ºNExtent: 40ºE - 160ºE and 0ºN - 60ºN Grid size: 25 km → nx = 355, ny = 223, nz = 35Grid size: 25 km → nx = 355, ny = 223, nz = 35
Meso-scale “mobile” approach by L-A DAS with Meso-scale “mobile” approach by L-A DAS with CMDASCMDAS
Point-scale by the CEOP Reference Sites NetworkPoint-scale by the CEOP Reference Sites Network + +
モデルによる統合化