Satellite Analysis Branch Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review2008 Year in Review

Michael Turk (SAB)

NOAA Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

March 2009

Milestones• Dec 2007 – SSD Management affirms findings of

ATET—ADT unsuitable replacement for SAB subjective estimates

• Dec 2007 – Bulletin format changed to reflect that of JTWC and CPHC

• Summer 2008 – SAB disseminates near RT microwave (MW) fixes as experimental product

• Fall 2008 – SAB incorporates MW fixes in text bulletins for Eastern and Southern Hemispheres

• Jan 2009 – SAB offers MW analysis on case-by-case basis to JTWC, TCWCs and RSMCs by request

• Feb 2009 – SAB provides Dvorak and MW fixes in ATCF format pending testing at TPC

Milestones: Microwave FixesMilestones: Microwave Fixeshttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2008/midata/archive.html

Sample MW History FileSample MW History File

Milestones: New Bulletin FormatMilestones: New Bulletin Format

WWPN20 KNES 160945 A. 25W (HAISHEN) B. 16/0857Z C. 27.5N D. 153.5E E. THREE/MTSAT F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS/WINDSAT H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 4/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF

2.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 3.0. FT BASED ON MET...ADT CI OF 2.9 AND 0739Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL. ~TURK

I. ADDL POSITIONS 16/0324Z 26.9N 151.3E AMSU 16/0654Z 27.4N 152.4E SSMIS 16/0739Z 27.5N 153.2E WINDSAT

695

6

459

147

449

229

652

612

37

597

147

650

270

781

515

15

481

123

440

192

843

507

146

514

129

518

183

854

659

12

580

109

648

226

815

673

6

527

173

530

137

1054

912

76

463

200

535

247

799

511

112

716

186

544

273

992

594

60

443

281

707

290

832

756

63

624

236

714

177

812

643

53

540

173

574

222

843

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Nu

mb

er o

f C

lass

ifca

tio

ns

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10-yrAvg

SAB Dvorak Classifications

Atlantic CPAC EPAC NIO SIO SPAC WPACG.Galllina SAB 01/01/09

3207

3382

2637

3094

2609

2851

30493100

32323334

3050

2008 Atlantic Intensity ErrorsBased on Recon

3

16

4241

20

0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Differences (SAB-Recon) in T-number

Nu

mb

er o

f O

ccu

rren

ces

N=122M. Turk SAB 11/10/2008

SAB 1995-2007 Mean35% within 1/4 T-no 80% within 3/4 T-no

SAB34% within 1/4 T-no 84% within 3/4 T-no

SAB Underestimated Intensity SAB Overestimated Intensity

SAB Performance 1995-2008 As Compared to Recon

35

54

40 26

35

21

46

44

30 33

42

33

22

33

8481

74

8987

6983

86

74

77

68

80

87

78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Within 1/4 T-no Within 3/4 T-no

1995-2007 Average: 35% within 1/4 T-no; 80% within 3/4 T-no

M Turk SAB 9/20/08

Hanna (08L): “A plague o’ both your houses...”

• Both subjective and objective techniques performed poorly

• Cloud pattern did not correlate well with pressures measured by recon

• “...at times Hanna has resembled a subtropical cyclone.” TPC discussion 04/03Z

ADT: T1.9; SAB: T2.5; Recon: T3.9

Hanna (08L) Current Intensity Time Series

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1545

Z17

45Z

1515

Z17

15Z

1845

Z19

15Z

1945

Z17

45Z

1915

Z21

15Z

2315

Z06

45Z

0745

Z08

45Z

0945

Z11

15Z

1745

Z19

45Z

2115

Z23

15Z

0645

Z07

45Z

0845

Z10

45Z

1745

Z19

15Z

2115

Z06

45Z

0715

Z09

15Z

1115

Z14

45Z

1645

Z18

45Z

2015

Z01

15Z

0315

Z23

45Z

0645

Z

3131 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6

ADT CI Recon CI SAB CI

Product System Development & Implementation (PSDI) Program

• Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

• AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and MetOp

• GOES-Based Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Product

• Operational Implementation of an Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Technique (eTRaP)

• Operational Implementation of the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique

Update on CIRA GOES-PSDI Project Extension5.2bFY03 Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product

Collection of developmental datasets needed toexpand current product to global domain has begun

Satellite water vapor imagery for IndianOcean & S. Hemisphere collected from • Meteosat 5 & 7 (centered at 63 E)

Nov 2005 – present• Meteosat 9 (centered at 0 E):

June 2007 – present

Starting collection and quality control of best tracks for Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere

Global GFS analyses already archived at CIRA back to 1982

Update on CIRA POES-PSDI Project( Request FY99-38) FY08 AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity

and Structure Estimation from Aqua and MetOp

• Retrieval codes for Aqua and MetOp AMSUs were obtained from SMCD

• Operational code has been modified to incorporate retrieval subroutines.

• The operational scripts are being modified by CIRA with coordination with NCO and TPC. Once completed the BUFR scripts will be modified by NCO

• Operational code will be finalized and tested once the operational data stream is finalized.

Project recently funded; will enjoy 24/7 support in 2 yrs:•May 2008: Development Phase Underway•May 2009: Pre-Operational Phase•June 2010: Operational Phase Begins

Multiplatform Surface WindMultiplatform Surface Wind

Experimental Production in Spring 2009

Deterministic and Probabilistic e-TRaPs for Rita landfall

≥100 mm ≥150 mm ≥200 mm

≥50 mm

ADT (v7.2.3) vs SAB A Homogeneous Comparison of CI Numbers

Against Recon for 2008 Atlantic Systems

4

12

20

3234

14

6

1 003

18

41 41

20

0 0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Difference in T-number

Nu

mb

er

of

Oc

cu

rre

nc

es

ADT-Recon SAB-Recon

Underestimates in Intensity Overestimates in Intensity

N=123M Turk SAB 11/13/08

ADT28% within 1/4 T-no 65% within 3/4 T-no

SAB33% within 1/4 T-no 83% within 3/4 T-no

ADT Entering New Developmental Phase:ADT Entering New Developmental Phase:

Incorporation of MW SignalIncorporation of MW Signal

Ike (09L): ADT Unable to Resolve Small EyeIke (09L): ADT Unable to Resolve Small Eye

• Small eye barely discernible in conventional and microwave imagery

• ADT used CDO cloud scene, resulting in falling T-numbers and underestimates in intensity

Ike (09L) Current Intensity Time Series

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1715

Z18

45Z

0645

Z14

15Z

1715

Z19

15Z

2115

Z23

15Z

0645

Z07

45Z

0945

Z11

15Z

1815

Z20

15Z

1815

Z20

15Z

2115

Z23

15Z

0645

Z07

15Z

0745

Z08

45Z

0945

Z11

15Z

1145

Z19

45Z

2115

Z23

15Z

0315

Z06

45Z

0715

Z08

15Z

0945

Z11

45Z

1345

Z17

15Z

1915

Z21

15Z

2315

Z02

15Z

0645

Z07

15Z

0915

Z11

15Z

1445

Z17

15Z

1915

Z20

45Z

2315

Z02

15Z

0345

Z06

45Z

0715

Z08

15Z

1145

Z13

15Z

1515

Z17

15Z

2045

Z22

15Z

2315

Z00

45Z

0145

Z02

45Z

0345

Z06

45Z

55666666777777888899999999991010101010101010101010111111111111111111111212121212121212121212121313131313

ADT CI Recon CI SAB CI

ADT Position EstimatesADT Position Estimates

Average ADT Position Error by Fix Method 2008 Atlantic Basin

10

16

17

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

COMBO FCST SPRL EXTRP TOTAL

Err

or

(nm

i)

M Turk SAB 11/16/08

N=34 N=204 N=96 N=0 N=334

Max: 36 Max: 62 Max: 64