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Sasol Canada Holdings Limited

Canada Gas-to-Liquids ProjectVolume 2: Environmental Impact Assessment

Appendix 3E: Project Only Predictions

May 2013

APPENDIX 3E Project Only Predictions

Canada Gas-to-Liquids ProjectVolume 2: Environmental Impact AssessmentAppendix 3E: Project Only Predictions Sasol Canada Holdings Limited

May 2013




May 2013 3E-i

Table of ContentsAPPENDIX 3E PROJECT ONLY PREDICTIONS3E.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................ 3E-1

3E.1.1 Continuous Source Concentrations (SCREEN3) ...................................................... 3E-13E.1.2 Continuous Source Concentrations (CALPUFF) ....................................................... 3E-3

3E.1.2.1 Common Air Contaminant Predictions....................................................3E-33E.1.2.2 Other Air Contaminant Predictions........................................................3E-19

3E.1.3 Continuous Source Deposition (CALPUFF) ............................................................ 3E-193E.1.3.1 Nitrogen Deposition...............................................................................3E-193E.1.3.2 Sulphur Deposition ................................................................................3E-193E.1.3.3 PAI Deposition.......................................................................................3E-25

3E.1.4 Abnormal Emissions ................................................................................................ 3E-25

3E.2 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................... 3E-29

3E.3 REFERENCES......................................................................................................................... 3E-29

List of TablesTable 3E-1 Maximum Predicted NOX and SO2 Concentrations based on the SCREEN3

Model .............................................................................................................................3E-2Table 3E-2 Maximum Predicted NO2 Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model ....................3E-4Table 3E-3 Maximum Predicted SO2 Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model ....................3E-5Table 3E-4 Maximum Predicted PM2.5 Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model ..................3E-6Table 3E-5 Maximum Predicted CO Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model .....................3E-7Table 3E-6 Maximum Predicted PDA boundary Concentrations for other substances based

on the CALPUFF Model ...............................................................................................3E-20Table 3E-7 Maximum Predicted NO2 Concentrations Associated with the upset Flaring based

on the CALPUFF Model ...............................................................................................3E-27

List of FiguresFigure 3E-1 9

thhighest 1-hour NO2 Concentration (µg/m

3) ...............................................................3E-8

Figure 3E-2 Annual NO2 Concentration (µg/m3)................................................................................3E-9

Figure 3E-3 9th

highest 1-hour SO2 Concentration (µg/m3) .............................................................3E-10

Figure 3E-4 2nd

highest 24-hour SO2 Concentration (µg/m3)...........................................................3E-11

Figure 3E-5 720-hour SO2 Concentration (µg/m3)...........................................................................3E-12

Figure 3E-6 Annual SO2 Concentration (µg/m3) ..............................................................................3E-13

Figure 3E-7 9th

highest 1-hour PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3) ...........................................................3E-14

Figure 3E-8 2nd

highest 24-hour PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3) ........................................................3E-15

Figure 3E-9 98th

Percentile 24-hour PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3)...................................................3E-16

Figure 3E-10 9th

highest 1-hour CO Concentration (µg/m3) ..............................................................3E-17

Figure 3E-11 1st

highest 8-hour CO Concentration (µg/m3) ..............................................................3E-18

Figure 3E-12 5-year Average Nitrogen Compound (N) Deposition (kg N/ha/a) ................................3E-23Figure 3E-13 5-year Average Sulphur Compound (S) Deposition (kg S/ha/a)..................................3E-24Figure 3E-14 5-year Average PAI Deposition (keq H

+/ha/a) .............................................................3E-26


3E-ii May 2013




May 2013 3E-1

3E.1 Introduction

This appendix shows the incremental contribution of the proposed Sasol Canada GTL project (the

Project) to ambient air quality. The CALPUFF predictions are based on the meteorological information

presented in Appendix 3C and on the model approach presented in Appendix 3D. For the purpose of

comparison, the SCREEN3 model predictions are also presented. Only Sasol emission source

predictions are presented in this appendix. Overlapping effects with other sources are considered in

Section 3: Air.

3E.1.1 Continuous Source Concentrations (SCREEN3)

While the CALMET/CALPUFF system is the primary model used to assess the Project, the simpler

SCREEN3 model (US EPA 1995) is used to evaluate each stack to determine the relative contributions

from each source. The SCREEN3 model is a first tier model that can be used to evaluate single sources

(ESRD 2009).

SCREEN3 NOX and SO2 predictions for the continuous combustion sources on an individual stack basis

are provided in Table 3E-1. The distances refer to the locations downwind of the stack where the

maximum concentrations are predicted. PG class refers to the atmospheric stability category (A to F)

associated with the maximum predicted concentrations (see Appendix 3C for a description of the

classes). Wind speed refers to the 10 m level wind speed associated with the maximum concentrations

(1 m/s = 3.6 km/h). The results indicate:

The maximum NOX concentrations are associated with the two thermal oxidizer stacks (i.e., 31.6 and

19.6 g/m3). For the other stacks, the individual maxima are in the 1.01 to 12.7 g/m

3range.

The maximum SO2 concentrations are associated with the two thermal oxidizer stacks (i.e., 67.2 and

10.4 g/m3) and the two flare stacks (13.6 g/m

3for each stack). For the other stacks, the individual

maxima are in the 0.003 to 0.20 g/m3

range.

The maxima depicted in Table 3E-1 are predicted to occur at different locations and at different times,

and the predicted maximum values typically occur within 1100 m of the respective stacks. Assuming the

individual maxima are additive, the maximum combined NOX concentration of 246 g/m3is less than the

400 g/m3AAAQO for NO2. Similarly, the maximum combined SO2 concentration of 106 g/m

3is less than

the 450 g/m3AAAQO for SO2.


3E-2 May 2013

Table 3E-1 Maximum Predicted NOX and SO2 Concentrations based on the SCREEN3Model

Source ID Source Description NOX(µg/m

3)

SO2(µg/m

3)

Distance(m)

PG ClassWindSpeed(m/s)

Heater 1 SL120HF101 12.7 0.03 980 A 1.0

Heater 2 SL120HF102 12.7 0.03 980 A 1.0

Heater 3 SL120HF103 12.7 0.03 980 A 1.0

Heater 4 SL220HF101 12.7 0.03 980 A 1.0

Heater 5 SL220HF102 12.7 0.03 980 A 1.0

Heater 6 SL220HF103 12.7 0.03 980 A 1.0

Heater 7 SL150HF002 9.02 0.20 908 A 1.0

Heater 8 SL150HF004 9.02 0.20 908 A 1.0

Heater 9 SL150HF003 5.39 0.003 861 A 1.0

Heater 10 SL150HF101 3.41 0.003 797 A 1.0

Heater 11 SL150HF201 1.84 0.002 965 A 1.0

Heater 12 SL160HF001 1.98 0.07 921 A 1.0

Heater 13 SL260HF001 1.98 0.07 921 A 1.0

Heater 14 SL072XP007A 10.1 0.03 972 A 1.5

Heater 15 SL072XP007B 10.1 0.03 972 A 1.5

Heater 16 SL072XP007C 10.1 0.03 972 A 1.5

Heater 17 SL072XP007D 10.1 0.03 972 A 1.5

Heater 18 SL072XP006A 10.2 0.04 794 A 1.0

Heater 19 SL072XP006B 10.2 0.04 794 A 1.0

Heater 20 SL072XP006C 10.2 0.04 794 A 1.0

Heater 21 SL072XP006D 10.2 0.04 794 A 1.0

Flare 1 SLU81FV1 1.01 13.6 953 A 1.5

Flare 2 SLU81FV2 1.01 13.6 953 A 1.5

Flare 3 SLU81FM1 1.68 0.07 1131 A 2.0

Flare 4 SLU81FM2 1.68 0.07 1131 A 2.0

Thermal Oxidizer 1 SL079XX001 31.6 10.4 188 C 10.0

Thermal Oxidizer 2 SL079XX003 19.6 67.2 421 C 1.0

Stack Total 246 106 - - -1-hour AAAQO for NO2 300 -1-hour AAAQO for SO2 - 450




May 2013 3E-3

3E.1.2 Continuous Source Concentrations (CALPUFF)

3E.1.2.1 Common Air Contaminant Predictions

The CALMET/CALPUFF model system was applied to predict ambient NO2 (1-hour and annual), SO2

(1-hour, 24-hour, 30-day, and annual), PM2.5 (1-hour, 24-hour, and annual), and CO (1-hour and 8-hour)

concentrations due to the project emissions on a grid basis. The maximum predicted concentrations are

tabulated for comparison purposes for five zones:

Inside Project Development Area (PDA): Inside the Sasol Project development are boundary.

Along PDA Boundary: Along the Sasol Project development area boundary.

2 km Zone: Outside the PDA boundary, outside other major facility fencelines, and within 2 km of other

major existing and planned Fort Saskatchewan facilities.

2 to 5 km Zone: Outside the PDA boundary, outside other facility fencelines, and between 2 and 5 km

of other major existing and planned Fort Saskatchewan facilities.

Outside 5 km: All locations external to the 2 to 5 km zone.

These zones are depicted on base maps provided in Appendix 3D.

The maximum predicted concentrations are provided for these substances in Tables 3E-2 to 3E-5; and

they are compared to the applicable ambient concentration criteria. Corresponding concentration

contours for the identified substances and associated averaging periods are presented in Figures 3E-1 to

3E-11. The figures represent a 50 km by 50 km area centered on the Project. The predictions in the

tables and figures assume the Project operates in isolation with no contributions from other sources. The

criteria are not applicable within the plant fence line since this is the region where access is controlled

and the occupational health and safety criteria are applicable. The predictions in the tables assume the

Project operates in isolation with no contributions from other sources.

All maximum concentrations are predicted to occur inside the PDA, along the PDA boundary or near the

PDA. The maximum concentrations predicted at all locations are all less than the respective AAAQO,

AAAQG or CWS. The maximum concentrations tend to decrease with increasing distance from the PDA.

The maximum 1-hour average NO2 concentration predicted by the CALPUFF model is 145 µg/m3, which

is lower than the maximum predicted NOX concentration predicted by the SCREEN3 model (i.e.,

246 µg/m3). Part of the difference can be attributed to the NO to NO2 conversion chemistry in the

CALPUFF model. The maximum 1-hour average SO2 concentration predicted by the CALPUFF model is

253 µg/m3, which is greater than that predicted by the SCREEN3 model (106 µg/m

3).


3E-4 May 2013

Table 3E-2 Maximum Predicted NO2 Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model

LocationYear (for

meteorological data)

Maximum NO2 Concentration(µg/m

3)

1-hourAnnual1st highest 9th highest

Inside PDA 2002 145 79.6 4.1

2003 123 81.5 3.3

2004 127 77.4 2.8

2005 99.3 78.5 2.8

2006 136 84.6 3.6

Maximum 145 84.6 4.1Along PDABoundary

2002 109 60.1 3.0

2003 98.8 69.0 2.4

2004 94.5 63.3 2.3

2005 99.4 62.4 2.1

2006 136 72.7 2.7

Maximum 136 72.7 3.02 km Zone 2002 120 63.3 3.0

2003 99.0 69.7 2.4

2004 94.3 63.1 2.3

2005 103 62.0 2.0

2006 136 82.9 2.7

Maximum 136 82.9 3.02 to 5 km Zone 2002 84.2 47.1 1.3

2003 75.8 45.2 1.2

2004 79.3 41.2 1.1

2005 60.7 39.7 1.0

2006 73.6 42.3 1.2

Maximum 84.2 47.1 1.3Outside 5 km 2002 45.3 27.7 0.7

2003 55.2 28.4 0.6

2004 45.0 24.1 0.5

2005 45.0 25.2 0.5

2006 49.5 27.8 0.6

AAAQO - 300 45

NOTES:

Predicted concentrations are based on a Project NOX emission rate of 6.26 t/d.

AAAQO = Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective.

AAAQOs are not applicable inside the PDA.




May 2013 3E-5

Table 3E-3 Maximum Predicted SO2 Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model

Location

Year (formeteorological

data)

Maximum SO2 Concentration(µg/m

3)

1-hour 24-hour

720-hour Annual1st

highest9th

highest1st

highest2nd

highestInside PDA 2002 253 124 37.3 28.4 8.8 3.8

2003 228 94.5 34.6 26.8 8.6 3.1

2004 182 96.7 32.5 28.1 6.2 2.7

2005 215 102 27.9 25.9 8.3 2.5

2006 232 112 30.4 26.2 9.5 3.4

Maximum 253 124 37.3 28.4 9.5 3.8Along PDABoundary

2002 40.5 18.8 7.9 6.5 1.0 0.6

2003 40.5 18.5 7.4 6.4 1.1 0.5

2004 56.3 17.9 7.6 5.8 0.9 0.4

2005 34.5 17.6 9.4 6.1 1.0 0.4

2006 71.4 19.0 9.2 6.6 1.6 0.5

Maximum 71.4 19.0 9.4 6.6 1.6 0.62 km Zone 2002 43.9 19.0 7.6 6.0 1.1 0.6

2003 39.5 18.3 7.3 6.1 1.1 0.5

2004 56.0 17.7 7.4 5.6 0.9 0.4

2005 38.4 17.5 9.4 6.0 1.0 0.4

2006 71.2 19.1 9.1 6.6 1.5 0.5

Maximum 71.2 19.1 9.4 6.6 1.5 0.62 to 5 kmZone

2002 32.1 10.2 3.5 3.2 0.8 0.3

2003 21.4 10.4 2.9 2.6 0.6 0.3

2004 19.6 9.6 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.3

2005 21.4 10.1 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.2

2006 21.0 10.2 3.2 3.2 0.6 0.3

Maximum 32.1 10.4 3.6 3.2 0.8 0.3Outside 5 km 2002 15.6 6.1 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.2

2003 16.5 6.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.1

2004 13.7 6.1 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.1

2005 14.3 7.1 2.1 2.0 0.3 0.1

2006 15.2 5.8 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.1

Maximum 16.5 7.1 2.1 2 0.4 0.2AAAQO - 450 - 125 30 20

NOTES:

Predicted concentrations are based on a Project SO2 emission rate of 1.32 t/d.


AAAQOs are not applicable within the PDA.


3E-6 May 2013

Table 3E-4 Maximum Predicted PM2.5 Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model

Location


data)

Maximum PM2.5 Concentration(µg/m

3)

1-hour 24-hour

Annual1st

highest9th

highest1st

highest2nd

highest98th

percentileInside PDA 2002 27.8 11.6 4.8 3.7 2.8 0.5

2003 32.3 9.3 4.5 3.4 2.1 0.4

2004 20.3 10.4 4.4 3.8 2.2 0.4

2005 32.1 9.1 3.5 2.9 2.2 0.3

2006 33.2 11.3 3.8 3.3 2.5 0.4

Maximum 33.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8Along PDABoundary

2002 28.3 9.4 3.3 2.6 1.7 0.3

2003 32.5 7.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 0.2

2004 19.0 9.6 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.2

2005 20.7 6.6 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.2

2006 33.6 11.8 2.6 2.4 1.5 0.3

Maximum 33.6 11.8 3.3 2.6 1.7 0.32 km Zone 2002 38.5 9.4 3.3 2.5 1.7 0.3

2003 32.8 7.7 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.2

2004 18.9 9.5 2.4 2.1 1.5 0.2

2005 26.1 7.1 2.3 2.0 1.4 0.2

2006 37.6 12.3 3.2 2.7 1.5 0.3

Maximum 38.5 12.3 3.3 2.7 1.7 0.32 to 5 km Zone 2002 13.9 5.2 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.2

2003 18.2 4.7 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.1

2004 10.7 4.4 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.1

2005 8.8 4.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.1

2006 11.1 4.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.1

Maximum 18.2 5.2 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.2Outside 5 km 2002 8.8 3.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.1

2003 10.2 3.3 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1

2004 11.5 3.2 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1

2005 10.0 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1

2006 11.4 2.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1

Maximum 11.5 3.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.1AAAQG - 80 - - - -

AAAQO - - - 30 - -

CWS - - - - 30 -

NOTES:

Predicted concentrations are based on a Project PM emission rate of 0.58 t/d.

AAAQG = Alberta Ambient Air Quality Guideline.


CWS = Canada Wide Standard.

AAAQGs, AAAQOs and CWSs are not applicable inside the PDA.




May 2013 3E-7

Table 3E-5 Maximum Predicted CO Concentrations based on the CALPUFF Model

Location


data)

Maximum CO Concentration(µg/m

3)

1-hour8-hour (1st Highest)1st highest 9th highest

Inside PDA 2002 280 87.1 58.8

2003 334 78.5 80.3

2004 222 97.1 56.5

2005 340 67.1 51.7

2006 349 108 71.6

Maximum 349 108 80.3Along PDABoundary

2002 296 65.2 57.8

2003 335 78.9 81.4

2004 207 92.5 56.2

2005 219 62.6 49.2

2006 351 108 72.3

Maximum 351 108 81.42 km Zone 2002 401 73.0 59.2

2003 338 77.1 84.1

2004 206 91.7 63.7

2005 283 67.4 49.1

2006 401 112 93.2

Maximum 401 112 93.22 to 5 km Zone 2002 130 43.5 38.0

2003 88.3 45.7 30.1

2004 80.2 43.2 46.7

2005 80.0 41.2 28.5

2006 120 42.3 30.7

Maximum 130 45.7 46.7Outside 5 km 2002 63.7 27.2 24.1

2003 68.8 27.4 18.4

2004 62.8 27.0 26.1

2005 68.3 23.5 24.0

2006 89.6 27.0 21.7

Maximum 89.6 27.4 26.1AAAQO - 15,000 6,000

NOTES:

Predicted concentrations are based on a Project CO emission rate of 7.70 t/d.


AAAQOs are not applicable inside the PDA.


3E-8 May 2013

Figure 3E-1 9th highest 1-hour NO2 Concentration (µg/m3)




May 2013 3E-9

Figure 3E-2 Annual NO2 Concentration (µg/m3)


3E-10 May 2013

Figure 3E-3 9th highest 1-hour SO2 Concentration (µg/m3)




May 2013 3E-11

Figure 3E-4 2nd highest 24-hour SO2 Concentration (µg/m3)


3E-12 May 2013

Figure 3E-5 720-hour SO2 Concentration (µg/m3)




May 2013 3E-13

Figure 3E-6 Annual SO2 Concentration (µg/m3)


3E-14 May 2013

Figure 3E-7 9th highest 1-hour PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3)




May 2013 3E-15

Figure 3E-8 2nd highest 24-hour PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3)


3E-16 May 2013

Figure 3E-9 98th Percentile 24-hour PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3)




May 2013 3E-17

Figure 3E-10 9th highest 1-hour CO Concentration (µg/m3)


3E-18 May 2013

Figure 3E-11 1st highest 8-hour CO Concentration (µg/m3)




May 2013 3E-19

The distances to where the predicted ambient concentrations are 10% of the AAAQO has been used to

define an air quality study area (ESRD, 2009). The largest distances to 10% AAAQO concentrations are

associated with the predicted 1-hour average NO2 concentrations (Figure 3E-1), with the maximum

distance to the 30 µg/m3

contour being about 7 km. The application of this distance indicates a need for a

minimum study area of 15 km by 15 km. The selected study area of 50 km by 50 km is therefore

sufficient.

3E.1.2.2 Other Air Contaminant Predictions

For other substances, the CALPUFF/CALMET model system was used to predict maximum

concentrations along the PDA boundary. Table 3E-6 provides the predicted concentration maxima for the

respective AAAQO averaging periods. The predictions in the table assume the Project operates in

isolation with no contributions from other sources. The maximum concentrations predicted along the PDA

boundary are all less than the respective AAAQO. As with the common air contaminant predictions, the

predicted concentrations for these other contaminants would decrease with increasing distance from the

PDA boundary.

3E.1.3 Continuous Source Deposition (CALPUFF)

The CALPUFF/CALMET model system was used to predict the deposition of nitrogen substances,

sulphur substances, and potential acid input (PAI) contributions due to the Project emissions. The values

are expressed as five-year averages.

3E.1.3.1 Nitrogen Deposition

Nitrogen deposition is a result of NOX emissions and is expressed in units of kg N/ha/a. Nitrogen

deposition represents the sum of the nitrogen substance (e.g., NO, NO2, HNO3 and NO3-) wet and dry

deposition contributions. The 5-year average nitrogen deposition contributions for the LSA are shown in

Figure 3E-12. The average nitrogen deposition for the LSA and RSA are 0.05 and 0.03 kg N/ha/a,

respectively. The maximum nitrogen deposition due to the Project is 1.1 kg N/ha/a; this value occurs on

the PDA boundary.

3E.1.3.2 Sulphur Deposition

Sulphur deposition is a result of SO2 emissions and is expressed in units of kg S/ha/a. Sulphur deposition

represents the sum of the sulphur substance (e.g., SO2 and SO42-

) wet and dry deposition contributions.

The 5-year average sulphur deposition contributions for the LSA are shown in Figure 3E-13. The average

sulphur deposition contribution for the LSA and RSA are 0.017 and 0.010 kg S/ha/a, respectively. The

maximum sulphur deposition due to the Project is 0.3 kg S/ha/a; this value occurs on the PDA boundary.


3E-20 May 2013

Table 3E-6 Maximum Predicted PDA boundary Concentrations for other substances based on the CALPUFF Model

AAAQO

Maximum Concentration(µg/m

3)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MaximumInorganic CompoundsHydrogen Chloride 1-hour (1

sthighest) - 1.36 2.01 1.91 1.17 1.27 2.01

1-hour (9th

highest) 75 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.84 0.86 0.88

Hydrogen Fluoride 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.09 0.14 0.13 0.08 0.09 0.14

1-hour (9th

highest) 4.9 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06

HydrocarbonsAcetaldehyde 1-hour (1

sthighest) - 0.055 0.065 0.038 0.041 0.065 0.065

1-hour (9th

highest) 90 0.016 0.015 0.018 0.012 0.026 0.026

Benzene 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.040 0.047 0.028 0.029 0.047 0.047

1-hour (9th

highest) 30 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.008 0.018 0.018

Annual 3 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004

Benzo(a)pyrene Annual 0.3 0.000008 0.000005 0.000005 0.000005 0.000006 0.000008

Ethylbenzene 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.042 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.042

1-hour (9th

highest) 2,000 0.034 0.033 0.037 0.035 0.037 0.037

Formaldehyde 1-hour (1st

highest) - 3.75 3.04 4.33 1.77 2.82 4.33

1-hour (9th

highest) 65 0.96 0.74 0.84 0.70 0.83 0.96

Hexane 1-hour (1st

highest) - 200 195 194 197 198 200

1-hour (9th

highest) 21,000 162 156 176 167 176 176

24-hour (1st

highest) - 78.4 66.7 68.3 66.5 105 105

24-hour (2nd

highest) 7,000 54.0 49.4 48.1 56.2 93.6 93.6




May 2013 3E-21

Table 3E-6 Maximum Predicted PDA boundary Concentrations for other substances based on the CALPUFF Model(cont’d)

AAAQO


3)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MaximumHydrocarbons (cont’d)Isopropylbenzene(cumene)

1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.0044 0.0042 0.0045 0.0042 0.0046 0.0046

1-hour (9th

highest) 500 0.0037 0.0037 0.0037 0.0037 0.0042 0.0042

Styrene 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.042 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.042

1-hour (9th

highest) 215 0.034 0.033 0.037 0.035 0.037 0.037

Toluene 1-hour (1st

highest) - 2.22 1.80 2.57 1.00 1.58 2.57

1-hour (9th

highest) 1,880 0.53 0.41 0.49 0.39 0.49 0.53

24-hour (1st

highest) - 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.11 0.16 0.19

24-hour (2nd

highest) 400 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.16

Xylenes 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.10 0.12 0.08 0.07 0.12 0.12

1-hour (9th

highest) 2,300 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05

24-hour (1st

highest) - 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02

24-hour (2nd

highest) 700 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02

Reduced Sulphur CompoundsCarbon Disulphide 1-hour (1

sthighest) - 0.29 0.31 0.42 0.26 0.55 0.55

1-hour (9th

highest) 30 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.10

Hydrogen Sulphide 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.07 0.14 0.14

1-hour (9th

highest) 14 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

24-hour (1st

highest) - 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03

24-hour (2nd

highest) 4 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03


3E-22 May 2013

Table 3E-6 Maximum Predicted PDA boundary Concentrations for other substances based on the CALPUFF Model(cont’d)

AAAQO


3)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MaximumHydrocarbons (cont’d)MetalsArsenic 1-hour (1

sthighest) - 0.00055 0.00057 0.00050 0.00042 0.00063 0.00063

1-hour (9th

highest) 0.1 0.00020 0.00021 0.00022 0.00020 0.00023 0.00023

Annual 0.01 0.000010 0.000008 0.000007 0.000007 0.000009 0.000010

Chromium 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.00018 0.00018 0.00015 0.00014 0.00020 0.00020

1-hour (9th

highest) 1 0.00006 0.00006 0.00007 0.00006 0.00007 0.00007

Lead 1-hour (1st

highest) - 0.00047 0.00058 0.00057 0.00034 0.00049 0.00058

1-hour (9th

highest) 1.5 0.00023 0.00024 0.00025 0.00023 0.00024 0.00025

Nickel 1-hour (9th

highest) - 0.023 0.033 0.032 0.019 0.020 0.033

1-hour (1st

highest) 6 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.014

Annual 0.05 0.00045 0.00036 0.00030 0.00033 0.00036 0.00045




May 2013 3E-23

Figure 3E-12 5-year Average Nitrogen Compound (N) Deposition (kg N/ha/a)


3E-24 May 2013

Figure 3E-13 5-year Average Sulphur Compound (S) Deposition (kg S/ha/a)




May 2013 3E-25

3E.1.3.3 PAI Deposition

Acid deposition is expressed as Potential Acid Input (PAI) in units of keq H+/ha/a. PAI represents the sum

of the sulphur substance (e.g., SO2 and SO42-

) and the nitrogen substance (e.g., NO, NO2, HNO3 and

NO3-) contributions minus the neutralizing effects of base cation (e.g., Ca2

+and Mg2

+) contributions. Only

the PAI contribution for the Project is presented (i.e., base cations are not incorporated).

The 5-year average PAI deposition contributions for the LSA are shown in Figure 3E-14. The average PAI

deposition for the LSA and RSA are 0.0046 and 0.0028 keq H+/ha/a, respectively. The maximum PAI

deposition for the Project is 0.1 keq H+/ha/a; this value occurs on the PDA boundary.

3E.1.4 Abnormal Emissions

Appendix 3A identifies several abnormal emission scenarios that could result in higher than normal

emissions (i.e., abnormal emissions) to the atmosphere. Specifically four upset flaring cases are

identified:

Global Power Failure (HP): Pressure Swing Absorption (PWU) off gas is directed to the high pressure

(HP) flare system resulting in higher emissions from the SLU81FM1 and SLU81FM2 flare stacks. This

flaring event could occur once every four years with an associated duration of four hours per event.

Global Power Failure (LP): The Water Treatment (WT) Unit column overheads and PWU off gas is

directed to the low pressure (LP) flare system resulting in higher emissions from the SLU81FM1 and

SLU81FM2 flare stacks. This flaring event could occur once every four years with an associated

duration of four hours per event.

FT Unit Trip (Full): Syngas is directed to the HP flare system resulting in higher emissions from the

SLU81FM1 and SLU81FM2 flare stacks. A full Fisher Tropsch (FT) Unit trip flaring event could occur

once a year with an associated duration of two hours per event.

FT Unit Trip (75%): 75% of the syngas is directed to the HP flare system resulting in higher emissions

from the SLU81FM1 and SLU81FM2 flare stacks. A 75% FT Unit trip flaring event could occur once a

year with an associated duration of two hours.

It is conservatively assumed that the same upset event occurs simultaneously for both plant phases. As

these gas streams have low sulphur contents, the SO2 emissions associated with these flaring events are

negligible. The CALPUFF model was therefore applied to the upset flaring scenarios to predict ambient

1-hour average NO2 concentrations.

Table 3E-7 shows the maximum concentrations predicted using the CALPUFF model. Depending on the

scenario, the maximum values are predicted to occur inside the PDA, near the PDA boundary, or in the

2 km zone. The maximum predicted NO2 concentrations are all less than the AAAQO.


3E-26 May 2013

Figure 3E-14 5-year Average PAI Deposition (keq H+/ha/a)




May 2013 3E-27

Table 3E-7 Maximum Predicted NO2 Concentrations Associated with the upset Flaring based on the CALPUFF Model

Location Year

Global Power Failure -Load to HP

Global Power Failure -Load to LP

FT Unit Trip –Load to HP

75% of FT Unit Trip –Load to HP

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

Inside PDA 2002 21.2 9.33 50.3 12.2 100 61.7 100 62.4

2003 49.0 0.68 1.67 0.64 3.22 0.47 3.88 0.37

2004 15.0 1.93 7.26 2.09 9.54 1.79 9.70 1.50

2005 3.60 0.85 0.65 0.32 1.90 0.34 4.63 0.48

2006 15.8 1.63 1.64 0.44 5.39 0.25 5.76 0.45

Maximum 49.0 9.33 50.3 12.2 100 61.7 100 62.4Along PDABoundary

2002 19.3 3.54 51.9 10.5 57.3 36.1 44.2 25.4

2003 31.7 0.73 1.67 0.64 3.33 0.47 3.99 0.37

2004 15.7 2.02 7.64 2.09 9.54 1.79 10.20 1.52

2005 3.62 0.88 0.65 0.24 1.92 0.34 4.69 0.49

2006 15.7 1.58 1.65 0.39 5.53 0.26 5.90 0.46

Maximum 31.7 3.54 51.9 10.5 57.3 36.1 44.2 25.42 km Zone 2002 18.4 3.76 95.0 10.3 87.9 35.1 59.7 24.7

2003 27.8 1.74 35.6 1.56 27.3 2.87 21.7 2.86

2004 28.4 2.51 34.6 2.87 32.8 2.73 38.8 2.46

2005 17.4 1.63 3.68 0.31 6.55 0.47 14.2 0.80

2006 15.7 2.03 15.2 0.69 22.0 0.71 35.8 1.00

Maximum 28.4 3.76 95.0 10.3 87.9 35.1 59.7 24.7


3E-28 May 2013

Table 3E-7 Maximum Predicted NO2 Concentrations Associated with the upset Flaring based on the CALPUFF Model(cont’d)

Location Year

Global Power Failure -Load to HP

Global Power Failure -Load to LP

FT Unit Trip –Load to HP

75% of FT Unit Trip –Load to HP

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

1-hour(1st highest)

1-hour(9th highest)

2 to 5 km Zone 2002 12.2 2.24 86.2 4.88 55.4 4.32 42.4 5.78

2003 9.72 2.11 57.0 2.01 57.0 2.76 14.6 2.63

2004 8.89 2.24 21.7 3.06 21.6 2.70 14.6 2.61

2005 6.23 2.09 14.1 0.66 21.6 0.92 23.6 1.23

2006 5.84 1.91 29.1 1.38 15.9 1.38 14.2 1.50

Maximum 12.2 2.24 86.2 4.88 57 4.32 42.4 5.78Outside 5 km 2002 7.88 2.14 29.4 6.13 24.0 5.26 22.6 6.52

2003 6.73 2.24 41.4 5.61 33.6 4.64 26.6 5.17

2004 6.52 2.15 22.8 4.76 26.7 4.17 14.5 3.95

2005 6.28 1.98 21.7 3.09 30.2 3.56 19.0 4.12

2006 6.96 1.64 27.7 3.34 21.4 3.48 24.0 3.43

Maximum 7.88 2.24 41.4 6.13 33.6 5.26 26.6 6.52AAAQO - 300 - 300 - 300 - 300




May 2013 3E-29

3E.2 Summary and Conclusions

The SCREEN3 and CALPUFF models were applied to Sasol Project emissions to determine maximum

concentrations that could be associated with the Project only case. Continuous and abnormal emissions

are considered.

The highest concentration and deposition values are predicted to occur along or near the PDA boundary

and generally decrease with increasing distance from the PDA boundary. An examination of the

predictions indicates that a 15 km by 15 km area would meet the study area requirements indicated in the

Alberta Air Quality Model Guideline. The selected 50 km by 50 km Local Study Area (LSA) is therefore

more than sufficient to meet the guideline requirements.

The model predictions indicate that the predicted concentrations are less than the applicable AAAQO,

AAAQG and CWS. This conclusion does not consider overlapping effects with other sources; this

overlapping or cumulative assessment is provided in Section 3: Air Quality.

3E.3 References

ESRD. 2009. Air Quality Model Guideline. Publication Number T/689. Available from

www.gov.ab.ca/env/air/airquality/airmodelling.html. pp 36.

US EPA. 1995. SCREEN Model User’s Guide. Document EPA-454/B-95-004. Office of Air Quality

Planning and Standards. Emissions Monitoring and Analyses Division. Research Triangle Park,

NC. 56 pp.


3E-30 May 2013

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