saqartvelos demografiuli ganvitareba...1 ilia wavwavazis saxelmwifo universiteti demografiisa da...

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ilia WavWavaZis saxelmwifo universiteti

demografiisa da sociologiis instituti

ssaaqqaarrTTvveellooss ddeemmooggrraaffiiuullii ggaannvviiTTaarreebbaa::

guSin, dRes, xval

giorgi wulaZe avTandil sulaberiZe nika maRlaferiZe giorgi mamardaSvili

Tbilisi

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2008

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naSromi mkiTxvels acnobs saqarTveloSi 1960-2006 wlebSi mimdinare iseT demografiul procesebs, rogoric aris Sobadoba, mokvdaoba, qorwineba, ganqorwineba da sxva da mocemulia demografiuli ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi 2050 wlamde. amasTan, rogorc mosaxleobis raodenoba, ise demografiuli procesebis mimdinareoba axleburad aris warmodgenili. redaqtorebi:

gogi lorTqifaniZe nino gomelauri

teqsti personalur kompiuterze moamzada marina xaCaturovam

© ilia WavWavaZis saxelmwifo universiteti wigni daibeWda ilia WavWavaZis saxelmwifo universitetis stambaSi ISBN 978-9941-0-0492-6

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Sinaarsi winasityvaoba ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba 1960-2000 wlebSi ......................................... 8

1.1. mosaxleoba .................................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.2. Sobadoba ...................................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.3. mokvdaoba da sicocxlis xangrZlivoba .................................................................................. 29 1.4. mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba da aRwarmoeba .................................................................. 46 1.5. qorwineba .................................................................................................................................................................... 49 1.6. ganqorwineba ............................................................................................................................................................. 57 1.7. gare migracia ........................................................................................................................................................ 62

2. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba 2001-2006 wlebSi ......................................... 69 2.1. mosaxleoba ............................................................................................................................................................... 69 2.2. Sobadoba .................................................................................................................................................................... 72 2.3. sqesobrivi urTierToba, xelovnuri aborti da kontracepcia ...................... 79 2.4. mokvdaoba da sicocxlis xangrZlivoba ..................................................................................84 2.5. mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba da aRwarmoeba ...................................................................98 2.6. qorwineba da ganqorwineba ................................................................................................................... 100 2.7. gare migracia ...................................................................................................................................................... 104 2.8. erovnuli Semadgenloba (1959-2006 wlebi) da eTnodemografiuli procesebi .......................................................................................................................................................................... 109

3. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi ............................................. 115 3.1. mosaxleoba .............................................................................................................................................................. 115 3.2. Sobadoba ................................................................................................................................................................... 117 3.3. mokvdaoba da sicocxlis xangrZlivoba ................................................................................. 118 3.4. mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba da aRwarmoeba ................................................................. 119

4. saqarTvelo da msoflio ................................................................................................................................. 121 4.1. mosaxleoba.............................................................................................................................................................. 121 4.2. Sobadoba ................................................................................................................................................................... 123 4.3. mokvdaoba da sicocxlis xangrZlivoba.................................................................................125 4.4. mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba da aRwarmoeba ................................................................ 129 4.5. saerTaSoriso (gare) migracia........................................................................................................... 132

bolosityvaoba .................................................................................................................................................................. 134 d a n a r T i 1. demografiuli maCveneblebi ................................................................................ 137 d a n a r T i 2. saqarTvelos demografiuli perspeqtivebi ...................................159 d a n a r T i 3. saqarTvelo da msoflio .................................................................................... 160

Demographic Development of Georgia: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow. Summary...............173

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winasityvaoba

2002 wels giorgi wulaZis, nika maRlaferiZis da aleqsandre

vadaWkorias avtorobiT gamovida naSromi “saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000)”.

aRniSnul naSromSi rogorc mosaxleobis raodenoba, ise demografiuli procesebis msvleloba axleburad iyo warmodgenili. praqtikulad mkiTxveli gaecno saqarTvelos axal demografiul suraTs 1960 wlidan 2000 wlis CaTvliT.

winamdebare naSromi, garkveulwilad zemoT aRniSnulis gagrZelebas warmoadgens da masSi asaxulia demografiuli viTareba 2001-2006 wlebSi.

aRsaniSnavia isic, rom 2002 wels saqarTveloSi Catarda mosaxleobis pirveli erovnuli sayovelTao aRwera. aRweris Sedegebidan gamomdinare moxda 1989 da 2002 wlebis aRweraTaSoris periodSi arsebuli demografiuli maCveneblebis gadaangariSeba. amdenad, mocemul naSromSi 1989-2000 wlebis statistikis departamentis monacemebi, romlebic “saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000)” wignSi iyo warmodgenili, koreqtirebulia. aRniSnuli periodisaTvis ucvleli darCa SefasebiTi monacemebi.

unda iTqvas, rom axali naSromi ar imeorebs mxolod 1989-2000 wlebis monacemebs, aramed motanilia “Zveli” da statistikis departamentis mier gadaangariSebuli demografiuli maCveneblebis Sedareba.

demografiuli procesebis Sedegebi mosaxleobis raodenobasa da mis asakobriv-sqesobriv SemadgenlobaSi aisaxeba. Tavis mxriv, mosaxleobis raodenoba da misi asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenloba gansazRvravs demografiuli procesebis donesa da intensivobas.

mosaxleoba da masSi mimdinare demografiuli procesebi erTiani demografiuli sistemis saxiT warmogvidgeba. demografiuli sistemis Semadgeneli elementebi (mosaxleoba, Sobadoba, mokvdaoba, gare migracia da sxva) mWidro urTierTkavSirSi imyofeba. erTi romelime maTganis cvlileba aisaxeba sxvebSic, iwvevs ra maT cvalebadobas.

zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, xSirad sakmaod rTulia imis gansazRvra, Tu demografiuli sistemis romeli Semadgeneli elementidan daviwyoT naSromi. erT SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba Sobadoba-mokvdaobisa da gare migraciis daxasiaTebiT naSromis dawyeba da mosaxleobisa da misi Semadgenlobis maT Semdeg ganxilva, rogorc Sedegis, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi _ mosaxleobis raodenobrivi cvlilebiT dawyeba.

“saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000)” _ adreuli naSromi garkveulwilad axleburi dizainiT iyo agebuli. mocemul SemTxvevaSi Cven vgulisxmobT naSromis calkeuli nawilebis ganlagebas _ demografiuli sistemis Semadgeneli elementebis ganxilva-analizis ganTavsebas. rogorc Cans “klasikuri” sqema rogorc specialistebisaTvis, ise zogadad mkiTxvelisaTvis ufro misaRebi aRmoCnda.

amitom mocemul SemTxvevaSi, naSromis calkeuli nawili ganlagebulia demografiaSi damkvidrebuli wesisa da tradiciis mixedviT.

mkiTxvelisaTvis naTeli rom iyos da mTlianobaSi gaiazros demografiuli procesebis mimdinareoba, met-naklebad xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi, naSromi “saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2006-2050)” Tavdapirvelad iwyeba 1960-2000 wlebis demografiuli viTarebis

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mokle mimoxilviT, romelic xSir SemTxvevaSi imeorebs “saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000)” wlebis analizs.

amis Semdeg ki ganxilul-gaanalizebulia 2001-2006 wlebis demografiuli viTareba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos demografiuli indikatorebis bolo prognozi Cvens mier 2003 wels iqna gakeTebuli. mocemul naSromSi, axali monacemebis safuZvelze, naCvenebia saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi 2050 wlamde.

naSromis bolo nawilSi _ “saqarTvelo da msoflio” _ Sedarebulia saqarTvelosa da msoflioSi mimdinare demografiuli procesebi da naCvenebia demografiuli ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi.

avtorebi did madlobas uxdian yvelas, vinc daxmareba aRmouCina naSromze muSaobisas.

simboloebis aRniSvna

monacemebi ar aris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ю ... SemTxveva ar aris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ю _ sididis mniSvneloba mcirea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 an/da 0.0

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1. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba 1960-2000 wlebSi

1.1. mosaxleoba

miCneulia, rom sando monacemebi mosaxleobis raodenobisa da mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb mosaxleobis aRwerebisas miiReba.

mosaxleobis raodenobis aRweraTaSoris periodSi, qveynis mosaxleobis da misi asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis gaangariSebebSi gaTvaliswinebulia Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da gare migracia.

amdenad, mosaxleobis raodenobisa da asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis gansazRvris sizuste bevrad aris damokidebuli dabadebaTa, gardacvalebaTa da gare migraciis mimdinare aRricxvis srulfasovnebaze.

saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis bolo aRwera 2002 wlis ianvarSi Catarda. iqamde mosaxleobis aRwera 1989 wlis ianvarSi iqna Catarebuli. aRweraTaSoris periodSi, kerZod, 1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi momxdar cnobil politikur, socialur-ekonomikur da sazogadoebriv movlenebs mohyva demografiuli SemTxvevebisa da migraciis registraciis gauareseba, ris Sedegadac garTulda mosaxleobis raodenobisa da asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis gansazRvra. aRniSnulidan gamomdinare oficialuri statistikis paralelurad gaCnda araoficialuri statistika, mecnierul Sefaseba-gaangariSebebis saxiT (SemdgomSi Sefaseba), romlis monacemebi, araiSviaTad, mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda da gansxvavdeba saqarTvelos statistikis departamentis (SemdgomSi cxrilebsa da diagramebSi _ sd) Sesabamisi monacemebisa da maCveneblebisagan.

1990-iani wlebis mosaxleobis raodenobis aRniSnuli Sefaseba-gaangariSebebi, iseve rogorc statistikis departamentis Sesabamisi gaangariSebebi, ZiriTadad 1989 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebs efuZneba.

magram iyo ki 1989 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebi mosaxleobis raodenobis Sesaxeb zusti?

sanam mocemul kiTxvas vupasuxebdeT, mogviwevs 1989 wlamde arsebuli demografiuli monacemebis ganxilva-gaanalizeba. mocemul SemTxvevaSi, sawyisad 1959 wlis aRweris Sedegad dadgenil mosaxleobis raodenobas da mis asakobriv-sqesobriv struqturas aviRebT.

aRniSnuli ramdenime mizeziTaa ganapirobebuli. jer erTi, 1959 wlamde mosaxleobis aRwera mxolod 1939 wels, anu didi xniT adre Catarda; meore, mosaxleobis 1939 wlis aRweris monacemebi idealurad sandoc rom iyos, omma Tavisi, ase vTqvaT, koreqtivebi Seitana. Seitana im TvalsazrisiT, rom omSi daRupulTa raodenoba sadReisodac sakamaToa da zusti ki ara, miaxloebiTi raodenobis gansazRvrac ki rTulia.

amdenad, 1959 wlis aRweris monacemebi, mosaxleobis raodenobisa da misi asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb, Cvens SemTxvevaSi, sabazisod iqna miCneuli Semdgomi gaangariSebebisaTvis.

cxrilSi 1.1. mocemulia mosaxleobis raodenoba aRwerebis mixedviT, bunebrivi mateba, gare migracia (statistikis departamentis monacemebiT) da maTgan gamomdinare Sedegebi.

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cxrili 1.1. mosaxleobis raodenoba, bunebrivi mateba, gare migracia da saerTo mateba saqarTveloSi 1959-1999 wlebSi (sd monacemebiT) da maTgan gamomdinare Sedegebi (aTasi)

periodi mosaxleobis raodenoba bunebrivi mateba1

gare migraciis saldo

saerTo mateba

weli saerTo matebidan

gamomdinare mosaxleobis raodenoba

iqneba

sxvaoba4 periodis

dasawyisi periodis bolo

sxvaoba

1959-1970 4044 4686 642 724 -90 634 1970 4678 4678 8 8 1970-1979 4686 4993 307 477 -140 337 1979 50152 50233 -22 -33 1979-1989 4993 5400 407 487 -175 312 1989 53272 53053 73 95

1959-1989 4044 5400 1356 1688 -405 1283 1989 5327 73

1 1959-1969, 1970-1978, 1979-1988. 2 wina periodis mosaxleobis raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT. 3 mxolod aRwerebis dros miRebuli mosaxleobis raodenobis

gaTvaliswinebiT. 4 sxvaoba mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegad miRebuli da saerTo

matebidan gamomdinare mosaxleobis raodenobas Soris.

cxrilSi motanili oficialurad registrirebuli mosaxleobis gare migraciisa da bunebrivi matebis monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1989 wlisaTvis iqneboda 73-95 aTasiT naklebi, vidre imave dros mosaxleobis aRweris mier iyo dafiqsirebuli.

amasTan, igive monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom rogorc 1970, ise 1979 da 1989 wlis aRwerebis dros aRricxuli mosaxleobis raodenoba ar Seesabameba bunebrivi matebisa da gare migraciis arsebuli monacemebidan gamomdinare mosaxleobis raodenobas.

imasac Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom 1960-1989 wlebSi, saqarTveloSi, gardacvlilTa arasrul registracias hqonda adgili, maSin saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1989 wlisaTvis kidev ufro naklebi unda yofiliyo, vidre es 1989 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris mier iyo dadgenili da zemoT motanili gaangariSebebidan gamomdinareobs.

garda amisa, mosaxleobis aRwerebisas, calkeuli asakobrivi jgufebisaTvis, SeimCneva aSkara Seusabamoba maT raodenobasa da demografiul monacemebs Soris. magaliTad, 1970 wlis aRweriT, romlis kritikuli momenti 15 ianvari iyo, erT wlamde asakis mosaxleoba 71,9 aTasiT ganisazRvra. 1969 wels cocxlad dabadebulTa raodenobam 87, 1 aTasi Seadgina. imave wels, statistikis departamentis monacemebiT, erT wlamde asakSi gardaicvala 2, 5 aTasamde bavSvi. amdenad, rTuli gamosaTvleli ar aris, rom erT wlamde asakis mosaxleoba, 1970 wlis ianvarSi, unda yofiliyo daaxloebiT 84 aTasis farglebSi. erT SemTxvevaSi, Tu CavTvliT, rom erT wlamde asakSi gardacvlil bavSvTa raodenoba, aRniSnuli sxvaobidan gamomdinare (87, 1 aTasi _ 71, 9 aTasi), 15 aTasis farglebSi iyo, maSin Cvil bavSvTa mokvdaobis koeficienti daaxloebiT 170-ze meti gamodis (aTas dabadebulze), rac Zalian maRali maCvenebelia da praqtikulad SeuZlebelia im droisaTvis.

meore mxriv, Tu davuSvebT, rom 1969 wels, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo erT wlamde asakis mosaxleobaSi 15 aTasi iyo, esec naklebad misaRebia. 1969 wels, saqarTvelosaTvis, statistikis departamentis

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monacemebiT, gare migraciis uaryofiTma saldom mxolod 8, 6 aTasi Seadgina. motanili ki safuZvels iZleva, vifiqroT, rom 1970 wlis mosaxleobis aRwera saTanadod ar iyo Catarebuli.

msgavs mdgomareobas hqonda adgili mosaxleobis 1979 wlis aRwerisas1.

zogierT SemTxvevaSi aseve naklebad sandoa mosaxleobis aRwerebs Soris periodSi mosaxleobis raodenobis mimdinare gaangariSebebis oficialuri monacemebi. magaliTad, 1987 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleoba gansazRvrulia 5266 aTasis tolad, xolo 1988 wels _ 5397 aTasad. 1987 wels bunebrivma matebam Seadgina 48, 3 aTasi, xolo gare migraciis saldo uaryofiTi iyo da 19, 9 aTass Seadgenda. aseT SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1988 wlis dasawyisisaTvis unda yofiliyo araumetes 5295 aTasisa da ara 5397 aTasis toli, rogorc oficialuri monacemebidan gamomdinareobs (5266 aTasi + 48, 3 aTasi _ 19, 9 aTasi = 5294,4 aTasi). anu, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1988 wels, oficialuri monacemebiT, 102 aTasiT meti iyo (5397 aTasi _ 5295 aTasi = 102 aTass), vidre es bunebrivi matebisa da gare migraciis igive oficialuri monacemebidan gamomdinareobda.

meore SemTxvevaSi, oficialuri monacemebidan gamomdinare, 1989 wlis 12 ianvrisaTvis 1988 wlis 1 ianvarTan SedarebiT saqarTvelos mosaxleoba sul 3 aTasiT aris momatebuli (5400 aTasi _ 5397 aTasi). maSin, rodesac 1988 wels bunebrivma matebam Seadgina 44, 4 aTasi, xolo gare migraciam _ minus 13, 3 aTasi. aqedan gamomdinare saqarTvelos mosaxleoba 1989 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis unda yofiliyo 5428, 1 aTasi da ara 5400 aTasi.

saerTo jamSi, Tu mosaxleobis 1987 wlis raodenobidan gamovalT, saqarTvelos mosaxleoba 1989 wlis dasawyisisaTvis unda yofiliyo araumetes 5325, 5 aTasi da 12 dReSi, aRweris kritikuli momentisaTvis, ver moimatebda 74-75 aTasiT. imdroindeli bunebrivi matebis da gare migraciidan gamomdinare, saqarTvelos mosaxleobas 12 dReSi SeiZleba moemata 1, 5 aTasiT.

msgavsi uzustobebis sxva magaliTebis motanac SeiZleba. rac Seexeba 1990-2000 wlebs, 1980-ian wlebTan SedarebiT,

demografiuli SemTxvevebis mimdinare aRricxva kidev ufro gauaresda. dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa arasrulma registraciam iseT masStabs miaRwia, rom amis ar danaxva SeuZlebelia.

gare migraciis gazrdili intensivobis pirobebSi, swored gare migraciis aRricxvis gauaresebis Sedegad, 1996 wlidan, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo, oficialuri monacemebiT, naklebi gamodioda 1980-ian wlebTan SedarebiT. 1997 wlidan gare migraciis statistika saerTod gamousadegari aRmoCnda. amave dros, 1990-1995 wlebis gare migraciis oficialuri statistikac ver asaxavda realurad mimdinare procesebs.

gasagebia, rom aseT pirobebSi, statistikis departamentis monacemebi saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis Sesaxeb Sors iqneboda faqtobrivi raodenobisagan.

1 mosaxleobis 1979 wlis aRweris monacemebiT, erT wlamde asakis mosaxleoba iyo 73, 4 aTasi. 1978 wels registrirebuli iyo 88, 8 aTasi cocxlad dabadebuli da 2, 5 aTasamde erT wlamde asakSi gardacvlili bavSvi. motanili monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom aRwerisas erT wlamde asakis mosaxleoba iqneboda 86 aTasis farglebSi, anu gansxvaveba 12

aTass aRemateba.

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amdenad, zemoaRniSnulidan gamomdinare SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom 1960-2000 wlebis periodSi, oficialuri monacemebi saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis Sesaxeb, maT Soris aRwerebisas, arazusti da naklebad sando iyo. mosaxleobis aRwerebisas, miuxedavad imisa, rom zogierTi asakobrivi jgufi aSkarad naklebi raodenobiT iyo gansazRvruli faqtobrivad arsebulTan SedarebiT, mTlianobaSi, mosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba gadametebiT iyo warmodgenili (1979 wlis garda). Cveni azriT, mosaxleobis raodenobis aseTi gadameteba im drois xelisuflebis interesebis Sedegebidan gamomdinareobda, romelsac, sxvadasxva mizeziT, awyobda faqtobrivTan SedarebiT mosaxleobis meti raodenobis Cveneba.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis Sesaxeb monacemebi kidev ufro naklebad sando aRmoCndeba, Tu gaviTvaliswinebT 1960-2000 wlebSi gardacvlilTa arasruli registraciidan gamomdinare gardacvlilTa SesaZlebel raodenobas. ф

gardacvlilTa da gare migraciis arasruli aRricxvis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba, 1960-2000 wlebSi, Cveni SefasebiT, gansxvavebulia saqarTvelos mosaxleobis im raodenobisagan, romelic statistikis departamentis mier aris warmodgenili (gadaangariSebamde). amaze naTel warmodgenas iZleva qvemoT motanili diagrama.

diagrama 1.1. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba (aTasi) 1960-2000 wlebSi sd (gadaangariSebamde) da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebis mixedviT

4000

4500

5000

5500

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

aTas

i sd

Sefaseba

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2001. Tbilisi,

2002, p. 16-17. rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentis da Cvens mier

gaangariSebuli mosaxleobis raodenobas Soris arsebuli sxvaoba 1960 wlidan sul izrdeba. 1970 wels es sxvaoba 107 aTasi iyo, 1980 wels _ 157 aTasi, 1990 wels _ 236 aTasi, xolo 2000 wels sxvaobam 1028 aTasi Seadgina. amrigad, Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1960-2000 wlebSi yovelTvis naklebi iyo statistikis departamentis Sesabamis monacemebTan SedarebiT. amasTan, Cveni SefasebiT, 1992 wlidan saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba ganuxrelad mcirdeba, maSin, rodesac statistikis departamentis gaangariSebebi mosaxleobis raodenobis zrdas asasaxven.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, statistikis departamentma 2002 wlis

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aRweris monacemebis safuZvelze gadaiangariSa aRweraTaSorisi periodis (1990-2001 ww.) mosaxleobis raodenoba.

am gadaangariSebisa da gadaangariSebamdeli saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba warmodgenilia qvemoT motanil diagramaze.

diagrama 1.2. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba sd da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT 1990-2000 ww.

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500aT

asi

sd gadaangariSebamde 5413.5 5421.6 5420.2 5404.5 5390.9 5375.1 5373.4 5381.0 5394.9 5101.0 5100.5

sd gadaangariSebis

Semdeg

5424.4 5453.3 5467.4 5345.8 4929.8 4794.2 4674.5 4558.4 4504.9 4469.8 4435.2

Cveni Sefaseba 5178.0 5206.0 5216.0 5078.0 4625.0 4475.0 4342.0 4212.7 4152.0 4112.2 4072.7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


2002, pp. 16-17; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 16-17.

rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentis monacemebi saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis Sesaxeb gadaangariSebamde da gadaangariSebis Semdeg, mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba. 2000 wlisaTvis statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebuli monacemebiT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 665, 3 aTasiT naklebi aRmoCnda, vidre gadaangariSebamde iyo miCneuli. miuxedavad amisa, 2000 wlisaTvis, statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebul da Cveni SefasebiT gansazRvrul saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobas Soris gansxvaveba sagrZnobia. kerZod, Cveni SefasebiT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 362, 5 aTasiT naklebi iyo, vidre statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebuli monacemebiT.

diagrama 1.3. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saerTo mateba-kleba (aTasi) 1960-2000 wlebSi (Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier Semdegi monacemebis safuZvelze _ G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 16-17.

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

13

motanili diagrama 1.3. aSkarad gviCvenebs, rom saqarTveloSi 1960-1991 wlebSi, marTalia sxvadasxva sididiT, magram mosaxleobis matebas hqonda adgili, romelic 1992 wlidan klebiT Seicvala.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1960-1991 wlebSi gaizarda 1099 aTasiT, xolo 1992-2000 wlebSi daiklo 882 aTasiT.

mosaxleobis saerTo matebaSi bunebriv da meqanikur moZraobas (migracias) gansxvavebuli wili hqonda (ix. diagrama 1.4.)

diagrama 1.4. mosaxleobis saerTo matebis (klebis) komponentebi saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi, aTasobiT (gare migracia: 1960-1989 ww. _ sd, 1990-2000 _ Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT; bunebrivi mateba _ Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

bunebrivi mateba

gare migracia

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier Semdegi monacemebis safuZvelze _ saqarTvelos

mosaxleoba. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 67; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 38-39, 186.

mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi, miuxedavad imisa, rom bunebrivi mateba mcirdeboda da periodis bolosaTvis nulovan sididemde davida, misi mniSvneloba mainc dadebiTi iyo, maSin, rodesac gare migraciis saldo uaryofiTi iyo.

1992 wlamde mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis sididis metoba gare migraciis uaryofiT saldoze ZiriTadad gansazRvravda saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saerTo matebas. 1992 wlidan ki, erTi mxriv, bunebrivi matebis mkveTrma Semcirebam da meore mxriv, emigraciis intensivobis mniSvnelovanma zrdam, momdevno wlebSi ganapiroba saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis mniSvnelovani kleba.

amdenad, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobrivi formirebis ZiriTad komponents 1960-1991 wlebSi bunebrivi mateba, xolo 1992-2000 wlebSi gare migracia warmoadgenda.

2000 wels 1959 welTan SedarebiT mniSvnelovani cvlileba ganicada saqarTvelos mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivma Semadgenlobam.

2000 wels 1959 welTan SedarebiT ZiriTadad Semcirda 10 wlamde asakis orive sqesis mosaxleobis raodenoba da 20-24 wlis asakis qalebis raodenoba. daaxloebiT igive darCa 20-34 wlis asakis mamakacebis da 25-29 wlis asakis qalebis raodenoba. amave dros gaizarda 35 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis raodenoba. aRniSnuli ZiriTadad gamowveuli iyo Sobadobis Semcirebis procesiT. mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi struqturis cvlilebas naTlad asaxavs diagrama 1.5.-ze motanili

14

300 200 100 0 100 200 300

mamakacebi qalebi

1959 2000

mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi piramida, saidanac aseve aSkarad Cans demografiuli daberebac.

demografiuli daberebis SefasebisaTvis ZiriTadad ori skala gamoiyeneba. erT-erTia J.boJe-garnies mier SemuSavebuli da e.rosetis mier ganviTarebuli skala, sadac demografiuli sibere ganisazRvreba 60 da ufrosi asakis pirTa wiliT (%) mTel mosaxleobaSi.

e. rosetis skalidan gamomdinarebs, rom mTel mosaxleobaSi, Tu 60 da ufrosi asakis pirTa wili 12 da meti procentia, maSin demografiul daberebas aqvs adgili (daberebuli mosaxleobis wilidan gamomdinare gamoiyofa siberis sxvadasxva done).

diagrama 1.5. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi piramida 1059 da 2000 wlebSi (sd monacemebiT)

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-9 0-4

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 1999. Tbilisi, 2000, p. 24-25.

gaeros demografebis mier SemuSavebuli skalisas gaiTvaliswineba 65 da ufrosi asakis pirTa wili (%) mTel mosaxleobaSi. aseT pirTa wili, Tu 7 procentze metia, maSin mosaxleoba daberebulad miiCneva.

qvemoT Cven orive skalas gamoviyenebT.

diagrama 1.6. demografiuli daberebis procesi saqarTveloSi _ 60 da 65 da ufrosi asakis pirTa wili mTel mosaxleobaSi (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 30-32.

aTasi

15

rogorc vxedavT saqarTvelos mosaxleoba, 1970 wels, rosetis skaliT demografiuli siberis zRvarze imyofeboda, xolo gaeros skaliT _ demografiuli sibere ukve dawyebuli iyo. 1979 wlisaTvis saqarTveloSi demografiuli daberebis etapi dawyebuli iyo, Tumca am droisaTvis demografiuli siberis mxolod sawyisi done iyo.

gansakuTrebiT intensiurad mimdinareobda demografiuli daberebis procesi 1992-1997 wlebSi. amas ori mizezi ganapirobebda. erTi is aris, rom 1992-1993 wlebSi moxda Sobadobis mkveTri da mniSvnelovani Semcireba mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis saWiro doneze dabla, romelic, garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, SemdgomSic praqtikulad aseTive doneze darCa. meore mizezad ki warmogvidgeba emigraciis intensivobis maRali done, romelSic ZiriTadad 60 wlamde asakis mosaxleoba monawileobda.

marTalia, 1998 wlidan demografiuli daberebis procesi ramdenadme Senelda, magram ukve 1996 wlidan saqarTveloSi formirebul demografiuli siberis Zalian maRal doneze arsebiTi gavlena ar mouxdenia.

qalebis demografiuli siberis maCvenebeli ufro maRali iyo da aris, vidre mamakacebis. aseTi mdgomareoba gamowveulia mamakacebTan SedarebiT qalebis sicocxlis ufro maRali xangrZlivobiT.

sxvaoba qalebisa da mamakacebis demografiuli siberis maCveneblebs Soris naklebi iyo, magram TandaTan gaizarda, rac gamowveuli iyo mamakacebis Warbmokvdaobis zrdiT. 1990 wlis Semdeg aRniSnuli sxvaoba ar gazrdila, xolo bolo wlebSi klebac ki SeimCneva.

16

1.2. Sobadoba

Sobadobis nebismieri maCveneblis analizi efuZneba informacias dabadebulTa raodenobis Sesaxeb. amitom, rac ufro srulfasovania dabadebaTa raodenobis aRricxva, miT ufro sandoa sabolood gaangariSebuli esa Tu is maCvenebeli da mis safuZvelze Catarebuli analizi da gamotanili daskvnebi.

dabadebulTa raodenobis Sesaxeb informaciis sxvadasxva wyaro arsebobs: 1) mosaxleobis aRwerebi, 2) mimdinare aRricxva, 3) specialuri SerCeviTi gamokvlevebi.

mosaxleobis aRwerebi mxolod garkveuli periodulobiT tardeba da Zalian maRali sandoobis SemTxvevaSic yovelTvis rCeba sakiTxi dabadebulTa raodenobis Sesaxeb aRwerebis Sua periodSi.

amitom dabadebulTa raodenobis Sesaxeb informacia miiReba mimdinare aRricxvis meSveobiT statistikuri organoebis mier.

saqarTveloSi, iseve rogorc bevr sxva qveyanaSi, dabadebulTa mimdinare aRricxvas awarmoeben rogorc sar (samoqalaqo aqtebis registracia; adre mmaC-i) organoebi, romelTagan Sesabamisi informacia sabolood statistikis departamentSi iyris Tavs, ise samSobiaro saxlebi da, zogadad rom vTqvaT, jandacva, romelic samSobiaroebis garda moicavs binaze dabadebaTa nawils mainc.

SerCeviTi gamokvlevebi TviTon Seicaven garkveuli sididis reprezentatulobis Secdomas. amasTan, maTi Sedegebis ganzogadebisaTvis xSirad saWiroa im saxis informacia, romelic problematuria. miuxedavad amisa, SerCeviTi gamokvlevebis Sedegebi gamosadegia SefasebebisaTvis.

garda amisa, rogorc mosaxleobis raodenobis, ise Sobadobis donis gansazRvris SemTxvevaSic aris calkeul mecnierTa gaangariSeba-Sefasebebi. Tumca dabadebulTa raodenobis Sesaxeb sando informacia sabolood mainc mimdinare aRricxvis sizustezea damokidebuli.

rogori mdgomareobaa am mxriv saqarTveloSi?

diagrama 1.7. cocxlad dabadebulTa raodenoba sd da gaeros eqspertTa monacemebiT

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

aTasi

gaero sd

gaero 106 90 90 90 96 98 86 71

sd 100 90 89 90 93 94 72 52

1960-

1965

1965-

1970

1970-

1975

1975-

1980

1980-

1985

1985-

1990

1990-

1995

1995-

2000

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia. 2005. UNFPA.

Tbilisi, 2006, p. 38-39; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision. V.1: Comprehrnsive Tables. UN, N-Y, 1999, p. 200.

cocxlad dabadebulTa Sesaxeb statistikis departamentis

17

monacemebsa da gaeros eqspertTa Sefasebas Tu SevadarebT, davinaxavT garkveul gansxvavebas (ix. diagrama 1.7.).

1960-1965 wlebSi, gaeros eqspertebis SefasebiT, saqarTveloSi dabadebaTa arasruli aRricxva 6%-is farglebSi iyo. dabadebaTa aRricxvis kargi mocva SeimCneva 1965-1980 wlebSi. 1980 wlidan dabadebaTa registraciis mocva uaresdeba da Zalian did masStabs aRwevs 1995-2000 wlebSi (arasruli aRricxvis wili _ 26-27%-is farglebSia).

diagrama 1.8. dabadebaTa da 15-49 wlis asakis qalebis raodenobis dinamika saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi, aTasobiT (Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1960 1970 1979 1990 1995 2000

dabad

ebulTa rao

denoba

40050060070080090010001100120013001400

15-49 wlis asakis qalebi

dabadebulTaraodenoba

15-49 wlisqalebi

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli

ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 43; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia. 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 22-24, 38-39.

rogorc vxedavT, 1960-1979 wlebSi fertiluri asakis qalebis raodenobis matebis miuxedavad, dabadebaTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi klebulobda. fertiluri asakis qalebis raodenoba, wina periodTan SedarebiT, 1990-ian wlebSi Semcirda, Tumca imave dros dabadebaTa raodenobam gacilebiT mniSvnelovnad iklo. magaliTad, 2000 wels, 1960 welTan SedarebiT saqarTveloSi 15-49 wlis asakis qalebis raodenoba 10% Semcirda, xolo dabadebaTa raodenoba _ 2-jer.

cxrili 1.2. dabadebulTa faqtobrivi da hipoTezuri raodenobis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 wlebSi (aTasi)

weli dabadebulTa raodenoba dabadebulTa raodenobis

kleba 1989 welTan SedarebiT hopoTezuri cvlilebis

% faqtobrivTan SedarebiT faqtobrivi hopoTezuri faqtobrivi hopoTezuri

1990 92, 8 93, 9 1, 7 2, 8 164, 7 1991 89, 1 90, 4 -2, 0 -0, 7 35, 0 1992 72, 6 75, 1 -18, 5 -16, 0 86, 5 1993 61, 6 67, 8 -29, 5 -23, 3 79, 0 1994 57, 3 67, 5 -33, 8 -23, 6 69, 8 1995 56, 3 69, 5 -34, 8 -22, 1 63, 5 1996 55, 0 70, 2 -36, 1 -20, 9 57, 9 1997 54, 0 70, 9 -37, 1 -20, 2 54, 4 1998 52, 0 69, 4 -39, 1 -21, 7 55, 5 1999 49, 5 65, 4 -41, 6 -25, 7 61, 8 2000 50, 0 68, 2 -41, 1 -22, 9 55, 7

1990-2000 690, 2 807, 8 -311, 9 -194, 3 62, 3

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 43. 1989-1995 ww. _ sd monacemebiT; 1996-2000 ww. _ SefasebiTi monacemebiT.

18

cxadia, dabadebaTa raodenobis Semcirebas martooden fertiluri asakis qalebis kleba ar ganapirobebda da arc iyo es ZiriTadi mizezi. igi uSualod bavSvebis yolis moTxovnilebis Semcirebis da Sesabamisad reproduqciul qcevaSi momxdari cvlilebebis Sedegad unda miviCnioT.

cxrilSi (1.2.) motanili monacemebis safuZvelze SeiZleba SevafasoT reproduqciuli qcevis da struqturuli faqtorebis wvlili dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobis cvlilebaSi. dabadebaTa faqtobrivi raodenoba Sedarebulia dabadebaTa hipoTezur raodenobasTan, anu im raodenobasTan, romelic SeiZleba yofiliyo, Tu saqarTvelos mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqtura ar Seicvleboda 1989 wlis Semdeg. aseT SemTxvevaSi, praqtikulad, dabadebaTa raodenobis cvlilebis erTaderTi faqtori asakobrivi Sobadobis cvalebadoba iqneboda.

cxrilSi motanili monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom 1990-2000 wlebSi, saqarTveloSi, Sobadobis intensivobis klebas rom ar hqonoda adgili daibadeboda 807, 8 aTasi bavSvi. am ukanaskneli mizezis gamo daibada 117, 6 aTasiT naklebi.

1990 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, dabadebulTa raodenobam moimata. dabadebulTa raodenobis zrdas xeli Seuwyo rogorc reproduqciuli qcevis, ise asakobrivi struqturis gaumjobesebam. SemdgomSi dabadebulTa raodenoba isev mcirdeba.

1991 wels es kleba umniSvnelo iyo da ZiriTadad (65%) gamowveuli iyo asakobrivi struqturis gauaresebiT.

1992-1993 wlebSi, gansakuTrebiT 1992 wels, dabadebulTa raodenobis klebas ZiriTadad ukve reproduqciul qcevaSi mimdinare cvlilebebi ganapirobebda, xolo asakobrivi struqturis uaryofiTi gavlena 13-21%-mde Semcirda.

Semdeg wlebSic dabadebulTa raodenobis klebaSi meti wvlili reproduqciul qcevaSi mimdinare cvlilebebs Sehqonda da naklebi (30-45%) _ asakobriv struqturas.

saerTo jamSi, 1990-2000 wlebSi, saqarTveloSi dabadebulTa raodenobis klebis 62, 3% ganapirobebuli iyo reproduqciul qcevaSi mimdinare cvlilebebiT, xolo 37, 7% ki asakobrivi struqturis gauaresebiT.

rac Seexeba dabadebulTa raodenobas mosaxleobis 1000 sulze (Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti), miuxedavad imisa, rom is Sobadobis donis sakmaod zogadi maCvenebelia, ukve misgan gamomdinare naTlad Cans, rom 1960 wlidan 2000 wlisaTvis Sobadobis done saqarTveloSi mniSvnelovnad mcirdeboda (ix. diagrama 1.9.).

diagramaze Sobadobis zogadi koeficientis dinamika gamosaxulia rogorc statistikis departamentis monacemebis, ise Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebis mixedviT. sxvaoba maT Soris gamomdinareobs 1996 wlamde mosaxleobis raodenobis gansxvavebidan, xolo 1996 wlidan _ rogorc mosaxleobis raodenobis, ise dabadebulTa raodenobis gansxvavebidan.

rogorc vxedavT, gansxvaveba maT Soris sakmaod umniSvnelo iyo 1960-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi, magram TandaTan izrdeboda 1990 wlamde. 1992 wlidan gansxvaveba statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris isev sagrZnobi xdeba da TandaTan matulobs. 2000 wlisaTvis sxvaoba maT Soris Seadgenda 1, 3‰. miuxedavad amisa, orive wyaro msgavs tendencias asaxavs.

19

diagrama 1.9. Sobadobis zogadi koeficientis dinamika saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi sd da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

‰

sd Sefaseba


Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 38-39.

bavSvTa Sobis Sigaojaxuri regulirebis gavrcelebis Semdeg Sobadobis faqtobrivi done bunebrivi Sobadobis doneze naklebia, anu bolomde ar realizdeba Sobadobis potenciali. es ukanaskneli SeiZleba Zalian maRali iyos, magram Sobadobis arsebuli done ZiriTadad misi realizaciis xarisxzea damokidebuli.

Sobadobis potencialis realizaciis xarisxis gasazomad ori maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba: koulis indeqsebi da borisovis indeqsi (bunebrivi Sobadobis realizaciis xarisxi).

koulis indeqsebi Sobadobis hipoTezuri maqsimaluri intensivobidan gamomdinareoben da axasiaTeben Sobadobis arsebuli donis gadaxras SesaZlebeli maqsimumidan.

koulis indeqsebis mniSvneloba yovelTvis erTze naklebia. rac ufro naklebia igi erTze, miT ufro gavrcelebulia bavSvTa Sobis Sigaojaxuri regulireba. amasTan, koulis indeqsebis erToblivad gamoyeneba Sobadobis cvalebadobis axsnis karg saSualebas warmoadgens.

qvemoT motanili monacemebi koulis indeqsebs daefuZneba. koulis mier SemoTavazebuli iyo oTxi indeqsi: 1. saerTo Sobadobis indeqsi (If) _ uCvenebs imas, Tu romelime

konkretul mosaxleobaSi qalebis mier dabadebuli bavSvebis raodenoba ra xarisxiT uaxlovdeba dabadebaTa im raodenobas, romlebsac isini iyoliebdnen, Tu maTTvis damaxasiaTebeli iqneboda Sobadobis maqsimaluri maCveneblebi;

2. qorwinebiTi Sobadobis indeqsi (Ig) _ uCvenebs, Tu ra zomiT uaxlovdeba (an gansxvavdeba) fertiluri asakis daqorwinebuli qalebis mier dabadebuli bavSvebis raodenoba maqsimalurad SesaZlebel qorwinebaSi dabadebulTa raodenobisagan;

3. qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis indeqsi (Ih) _ uCvenebs fertiluri asakis gauTxovari qalebis mier dabadebuli bavSvebis raodenobis msgavseba _ gansxvavebis xarisxs maqsimalurad SesaZlebel qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa raodenobisagan;

20

4. fertiluri asakis gaTxovil qalTa wilis indeqsi (Im) _ uCvenebs, Tu ra zomiT uwyobs xels qorwinebaSi yofna maqsimalurad SesaZlebeli Sobadobis miRwevas2.

diagrama 1.10. koulis indeqsebis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1959-1999 wlebSi

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1959 1970 1979 1989 1999

If

Ig

Ih

Im

wyaro: 1959-1999 ww. _ g. melaZe, g. wulaZe. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba da

demografiuli procesebi. Tbilisi, 1997, gv. 10. 1999 weli gaangariSebulia Cvens mier.

1960-1970 wlebSi saqarTveloSi saerTo Sobadobis indeqsi ufro mniSvnelovnad Semcirda, vidre 1970-dan 1979 wlamde. 1960-1970 wlebSi, 1970-1979 wlebTan SedarebiT, ufro mniSvnelovnad daiklo qorwinebiTi Sobadobis indeqsma, Tumca, pirvel periodSi gaumjobesda mosaxleobis qorwinebiTi mdgomareoba, xolo Semdgom periodSi _ ramdenadme gauaresda.

zemoT motanilidan gamomdinareobs, rom 1960-1970 wlebSi mimdinare Sobadobis Semcireba bavSvTa Sobis Sigaojaxuri regulirebis zrdiT iyo gamowveuli, xolo 1970-ian wlebSi Sobadobis klebas ufro saqorwino struqturis gauareseba gansazRvravda.

1979-1989 wlebSi saerTo Sobadobis indeqsi ganagrZobs Semcirebas, magram ramdenadme naklebi zomiT, vidre 1970-1979 wlebSi. imave dros, 1979-1989 wlebSi, qorwinebiTi Sobadobis indeqsi mniSvnelovnad klebulobs, gansakuTrebiT 1970-1979 wlebTan SedarebiT. misi kleba kidev ufro mniSvnelovani iqneboda, rom 1980-ian wlebSi ar gaumjobesebuliyo mosaxleobis qorwinebiTi mdgomareoba (gaizarda fertiluri asakis qorwinebaSi myof qalTa wili).

1990-iani wlebi uprecedento iyo koulis indeqsebis cvlilebis TvalsazrisiT. 1989 wlidan 1999 wlamde, aTi wlis ganmavlobaSi, saerTo Sobadobis koulis indeqsi TiTqmis iseTive sididiT Semcirda, rac wina 30 wlis ganmavlobaSi, 1959 wlidan 1989 wlamde. amasTan, qorwinebiTi Sobadobis koulis indeqsis kleba ufro mniSvnelovani iyo, vidre saerTo Sobadebis indeqsis kleba, rac reproduqciul qcevaSi mimdinare cvlilebebs asaxavs. imave dros mniSvnelovnad Semcirda fertiluri asakis qorwinebaSi myofi qalebis wilis indeqsi, rac struqturuli cvlilebebis, kerZod, mis gauaresebaze metyvelebs.

1990-ian wlebSi gaizarda qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koulis indeqsi. 1999 wels is sakmaod miuaxlovda qorwinebiTi Sobadobis indeqsis mniSvnelobas.

2 Coale A. Factors associated with the development of low fertility a historic summary. U.N., World Population Conference. Belgrad, 1965; Coale A. The decline of fertility in Europe from the French Revolution to World War II. In: Fertility and family planning. A world view. The University of Michigan press, 1969.

21

amdenad, koulis indeqsebidan gamomdinareobs, rom 1990-ian wlebSi, saqarTveloSi, Sobadobis kleba ZiriTadad gamowveuli iyo Semdegi garemoebebiT: ufro metad _ reproduqciul qcevaSi momxdari cvlilebebiT da naklebad _ mosaxleobis qorwinebiTi struqturis gauaresebiT3.

mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi bavSvTa Sobis potencialis realizaciis SedarebiT maRali xarisxiT gamoirCeodnen 20-29 wlis asakis qalebi. amasTan, 2000 wlisaTvis, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, Semcirda yvela asakis qalebis bavSvTa Sobis potencialis realizaciis xarisxi, garda 40 da ufrosi asakis qalebisa (45 da ufrosi asakis qalebisaTvis ramdenadme gaizarda), Tumca 35 wlis Semdeg realizaciis xarisxi isedac Zalian dabalia. 2000 wels Sobadobis potencialis realizaciis yvelaze maRali xarisxiT gamoirCeodnen 20-24 wlis asakis qalebi, Tumca isini iyenebdnen aRniSnul potencials mxolod 23%-mde.

1990 wels saqarTveloSi daibada 92, 8 aTasi bavSvi. amave dros maqsimalurad SesaZlebel dabadebaTa raodenoba 5-jer meti iyo da 487,2 aTass Seadgenda, xolo 2000 wlisaTvis 374, 1 aTasamde Semcirda, Tumca am wels mxolod 50 aTasi bavSvi daibada (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

1960-2000 wlebSi momxdari cvlilebebis Sedegad, 2000 wels 1960 welTan SedarebiT orjer gaizarda 20 wlamde asakis qalebis Sobadobis intensivoba. 1970-1990-ian wlebSi matebis Semdeg, 2000 wlisaTvis igive doneze darCa 20-24 wlis asakis qalebis Sobadobis intensivoba, xolo 25 da ufrosi asakis qalebis Sobadobam mniSvnelovnad daiklo. amasTan, 25-44 wlis asakis qalebis Sobadobis klebas mTeli periodis ganmavlobaSi sistematuri xasiaTi hqonda.

Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebis cvlileba aisaxa Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis cvlilebasa da klebaSi (ix. diagrama 1.11.).

diagrama 1.11. Sobadobios jamobrivi koeficientis cvlileba saqarTveloSi (swori xazi _ mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebis zRvari)

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

1960

1970

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000


Tbilisi, 2006, p. 41. 1960-1988 ww. _ sd monacemebiT; 1989-2000 ww. _ Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT.

garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, 1960-1990 wlebSi Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti klebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda. 1991 wels igi

3 Г. Цуладзе. Демографическое развитие Грузии: прошлое и настоящее. International workshop, Population Development and Emerging Requirements for Data Comparability: Baltic and Caucasian Region. Tallin, 2000, p. 8.; a. sulaberiZe. gardamavali periodis negatiuri socialur-demografiuli tendenciebi. _ “socialuri ekonomika”. 2001, #1, gv. 32-37.

22

mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebis zRvaramde Semcirda, xolo 1992 wlidan misi done am zRvarze naklebi iyo.

amdenad, saqarTveloSi, 1992 wlidan Sobadobis done ver uzrunvelyofs TaobaTa srulad ganaxlebas.

marTalia, 1993-2000 wlebSi moxda Sobadobis donis garkveuli stabilizacia, Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis 1, 7 sididis farglebSi, magram aRniSnuli mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis saWiro doneze (2, 1) naklebia.

TiToeul asakobriv jgufs garkveuli wvlili Seaqvs Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi. vnaxoT, Tu rogori iyo da ra cvlilebebs ganicdida aRniSnuli maCvenebeli (ix. cxrili 1.3.).

1960 wels Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi yvelaze did rols TamaSobdnen 25-29 wlis asakis qalebi. mniSvnelovani iyo agreTve 20-24 da 30 da ufrosi asakis qalebis roli, xolo yvelaze umniSvnelo _ 20 wlamde asakis qalebis roli.

1970 wlisaTvis viTareba ramdenadme Seicvala. saqme is aris, rom Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi meti wvlilis Setana daiwyes ufro axalgazrda asakis qalebma, Tumca mainc sagrZnobi rCeboda 30 da ufrosi asakis qalebis wvlili.

1980 wlisaTvis mdgomareoba kidev ufro Seicvala. Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis mniSvnelobis naxevari (50, 7%) ukve 25 wlamde asakis qalebis reproduqciuli qcevis Sedegad yalibdeboda. 1960 welTan SedarebiT orjer Semcirda 35 da ufrosi asakis qalebis “Senatani”.

1990 wlisaTvis, wina periodTan SedarebiT, kidev ufro gaizarda axalgazrda asakis qalebis wvlili Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi.

amdenad, mTeli 1960-1990-iani wlebis periodSi mimdinareobda procesi, romlis ZiriTadi arsi is iyo, rom Sobadobis asakis “gaaxalgazrdavebis” Sedegad Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi sul ufro mcirdeboda SedarebiT ufrosi asakis qalebis roli da izrdeboda axalgazrda asakis qalebis wvlili. amave dros Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti ganagrZobda klebas, rac ZiriTadad axalgazrda asakis qalebis dabali reproduqciuli qcevis Sedegs warmoadgenda.

1991-1994 wlebSi kidev ufro izrdeba axalgazrda asakis qalebis wvlili Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi. amave dros mniSvnelovnad daiklo swored aRniSnuli kontingentis Sobadobis asakobrivma koeficientebma. amis Sedegad mniSvnelovnad da arsebiTad Semcirda Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti, romlis sididem mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebis zRvarze qvemoT daiklo.

1995 wlidan, garkveuli TvalsazrisiT, ukuprocess hqonda adgili. 1995-2000 wlebSi Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi mcirdeba 20 wlamde asakis qalebis wvlili, cvalebadobas ganicdis 20-24 wlis asakis qalebis wvlili da izrdeba 25 da ufrosi asakis qalebis roli.

aRniSnuli cvlilebebi, jerjerobiT, sakmarisi ar aRmoCnda Sobadobis donis arsebiTi SecvlisaTvis gazrdis TvalsazrisiT.

Sobadobis donis klebaze aseve migviTiTebs dabadebulebSi pirveli rigiTobis bavSvebis wilis zrda da mesame da Semdgomi rigiTobis bavSvebis wilis kleba.

Tu 1960 wels dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobaSi pirveli rigiTobis bavSvebis wili 34,7% Seadgenda, xolo, mesame da Semdgomi rigiTobis _ 36, 5%. 2000 wlisaTvis viTareba radikalurad Seicvala da dabadebulTa

23

saerTo raodenobaSi pirveli rigiTobis bavSvebis wili 51, 9%-mde gaizarda, xolo mesame da Semdgomi rigiTobis _ 14, 8%-mde Semcirda.

cxrili 1.3. asakobrivi jgufebis roli Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi (%)

20 wlamde 20-24 25-29 30-34 35 da meti 1960 4.5 26.2 32.0 21.5 15.8 100.01970 6.5 35.0 29.0 18.0 11.5 100.01980 10.6 40.1 27.0 14.7 7.6 100.01990 13.6 39.9 25.2 14.4 6.9 100.01991 14.1 40.7 23.9 14.2 7.1 100.01992 15.0 42.7 22.2 13.9 6.2 100.01993 18.7 39.9 21.8 13.5 6.1 100.01994 22.4 37.1 21.4 13.1 6.0 100.01995 21.3 36.4 22.1 13.6 6.6 100.01996 19.8 35.8 23.1 14.3 7.0 100.01997 18.2 34.7 24.1 14.4 8.6 100.01998 17.7 35.1 24.7 14.1 8.4 100.01999 16.7 35.2 24.8 14.9 8.4 100.02000 14.2 37.0 25.4 14.7 8.7 100.0

dedis asakiweli sul

wyaro: Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia. 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 38-39. 1960-1980 ww. _ sd monacemebiT. 1990-2000 ww. _ SefasebiTi monacemebiT.

gansaxilvel periodSi mimdinare aRniSnulma cvlilebebma gavlena iqonia dabadebis rigiTobis saSualo maCvenebelze, anu e.w. Svilianobis struqturul koeficientze.

rogorc vxedavT, ukve 1975 wels dabadebulTa saSualo rigiToba saqarTveloSi 2-ze ramdenadme naklebi iyo, xolo 1995 da 2000 wlebSi 1, 7-is sididemde Semcirda. 1995-2000 wlebSi Svilianobis struqturuli koeficientisa da Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis sidide msgavsi iyo. aseTi mdgomareoba imis maniSnebelia, rom 1995 wlidan mimdinareobs Sobadobis reJimis TandaTanobiTi cvlileba Taobidan Taobamde.

amdenad, zemoT ganxilulidan gamomdinareobs, rom 1990-iani wlebi, saqarTveloSi, mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis saWiro doneze qvemoT Sobadobis Semcirebis periodia.

1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi momxdari Sobadobis klebis prognozireba 1980-ian wlebSic ki SeiZleboda da aseTi prognozebi gakeTebul iqna kidec.

kerZod, aRniSnul iqna rom momavalSi saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi yvelaze xalxmravali erovnebebisaTvis (qarTvelebi, somxebi, rusebi) bavSvTa Sobis mxriv arasaxarbielo mdgomareoba iqneboda4.

SemdgomSi, skolis asakis mosaxleobis reproduqciuli orientaciebis Seswavlis safuZvelze5, romelTac rogorc aRmoCnda stabiluri xasiaTi gaaCniaT6, gamotanil iqna Semdegi daskvnebi:

4 g. wulaZe. Sobadobis sociologiis sakiTxebi. Tbilisi, 1984, gv. 114. 5 Г. Цуладзе, Т. Чанкветадзе. Формирование представлений школьников о числе детей в семье // Детность семьи: вчера, сегодня, завтра. М., 1986, с. 104-116. z. cxovrebaZe. reproduqciuli orientaciebis formirebis Taviseburebani (Tbilisis magaliTze). sadisertacio macne. ek. mecn.kand. samecniero xarisxis mosapoveblad. Tbilisi, 1993 da sxva.

24

1. dRevandelTan SedarebiT Sobadobis done momavalSi kidev ufro daiklebs;

2. bavSvTa Sobis intensivobis klebas momavalSic eqneba adgili, amasTan, Zalian arasasurvel donemde, romelic sakmarisi ar iqneba mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis7;

3. zemoT aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, 2000 wlisaTvis, demografiuli politikis gatarebis gareSe, Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti Semcirdeba mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis saWiro doneze dabla, xolo dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobaSi mesame da Semdgomi rigiTobis bavSvebis wili 15%-ze naklebi iqneba8.

rogorc vxedavT, prognozebi gamarTlda. yuradRebas iqcevs registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba. registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba (SemdgomSi qorwinebis

gareSe Sobadoba) saerTo Sobadobis im nawils warmoadgens, romelic qorwinebis gareSe dabadebebiT warmoiqmneba. qorwinebis gareSe dabadebad iTvleba bavSvis gaCena qalis mier, romelic mocemuli momentisaTvis ar imyofeba iuridiulad gaformebul (registrirebul) qorwinebaSi. konsensualur qorwinebasa da TanacxovrebaSi (sqesobrivi kavSiris TvalsazrisiT) dabadebuli bavSvebi mimdinare statistikur aRricxvaSi iTvlebian qorwinebis gareSed9.

yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi, 1944 wlamde, qorwinebis gareSe dabadebis cneba praqtikulad ar arsebobda. araregistrirebuli qorwinebebi registrirebulis tolfasad miiCneoda. arsebobda mamobis nebayoflobiTi aRiarebis an sasamarTlos wesiT dadgenis praqtika. 1944-1969 wlebSi registrirebul qorwinebaSi armyofi qalebis mier dabadebuli bavSvebis registraciisas cnobebi mamis Sesaxeb ar fiqsirdeboda, xolo Sesabamis grafaSi xazs usvamdnen. Tanamedrove mimdinare statistika dabadebaTa sam kategorias gamoyofs, romelic Sesabamisi dokumentebiT fiqsirdeba: 1. registrirebul qorwinebaSi dabadebulebi; 2. dabadebebi, romlebic registrirebulia mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT (agreTve, rodesac mamoba dadgenili iyo sasamarTlos wesiT), anu mamobis dadgenis mowmobiT da misi xelmoweriT; 3. dabadebebi, romlebic registrirebulia mxolod dedis gancxadebiT da misi xelmoweriT. meore SemTxvevaSi mamasa da Svils Soris iseTive ufleba_movaleobebi arsebobs, rogorc iuridiulad registrirebuli qorwinebisas. dedis gancxadebiT dabadebis registraciisas cnobebi mamis Sesaxeb aRiniSneba dedis sityvebidan gamomdinare, magram Svili Rebulobs dedis gvars da Svilsa da mamas Soris araviTari samarTlebrivi urTierTobebi ar warmoiqmneba. bavSvis dabadebis Semdeg, mSobelTa qorwinebis SemTxveva warsuli periodis statistikaSi ar aisaxeba10.

qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba mniSvnelovnad aris damokidebuli qveyanaSi arsebul saqorwino-saojaxo tradiciebsa da kanonmdeblobaze.

6 Г. Цуладзе, З. Гокадзе. К вопросу стабильности представления школьников о числе детей в семье//Современные проблемы экологии, демографии и здоровья населения. Свердловск, 1988. 7 Г. Цуладзе. Планирование семьи и национальные традиции // Планирование семьи и национальные традиции. Выпуск 1. М., 1986, с. 11. 8 А. Сулаберидзе. Особенности демографического развития Грузии // Актуальные проблемы развития демографических процессов в Грузии. Тбилиси, 1990, с. 35. 9 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. ojaxis krizisi saqarTveloSi da saojaxo politikis principebi. Tbilisi, 1998, gv. 101. 10 iqve, gv. 101-102.

25

qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis dones qorwinebiTi da reproduqciuli qceva gansazRvravs.

qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba SeiZleba ramdenime maCvenebliT gaizomos: 1. qorwinebis gareSe dabadebaTa wili (%) yvela dabadebuls Soris; 2. qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koeficienti, romelic uCvenebs dabadebaTa raodenobas 15-49 wlis asakis 1000 dauqorwinebel qalze; 3. qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientiT; 4. koulis indeqsi qorwinebis gareSe SobadobisaTvis.

qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koulis indeqsi zemoT iyo ganxiluli, amitom mas aq aRar SevexebiT da mxolod imis aRniSvniT SemovifarglebiT, rom 1979 wlidan 1999 wlisaTvis qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koulis indeqsi, saqarTveloSi, TiTqmis 4-jer gaizarda.

qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili yvela dabadebuls Soris (SemdgomSi qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili), saqarTveloSi, 1980 wels, jer kidev mcire iyo da 4, 7% udrida, Tumca 5 wlis ganmavlobaSi is gaormagda da 1985 wlisaTvis 10, 5% Seadina.

diagrama 1.12. asakobrivi jgufebis roli Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis formirebaSi saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi (%)

05

10152025303540

jj 4.7 10.5 17.7 18.2 18.7 21.8 25.1 28.4 29.2 30.9 33.4 35.4 36.4 39.0

1980 1985 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 63.

Semdeg wlebSi qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba ganagrZobda matebas da 1990 wels man ukve 18, 2% miaRwia.

1990-iani wlebi, saqarTveloSi, qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis Semdgomi zrdiT gamoirCeoda. 2000 wels, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis wili 2, 1-jer gaizarda da 39% Seadgina.

es sakmaod maRali maCvenebelia, Tumca zogierT qveyanaSi masze did mniSvnelobasac vxvdebiT. aris qveynebi, sadac qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis wili gacilebiT naklebia, vidre saqarTveloSi (ix. diagrama 1.13.).

qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis wilis zrdis tempiT Tu vimsjelebT, ukanaskneli 20 wlis ganmavlobaSi, am mxriv saqarTveloSi, sxva qveynebTan SedarebiT, arnaxul zrdas hqonda adgili.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba ori komponentisagan Sedgeba: 1. dabadebulebi, romlebic registrirebuli arian mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT (mamobis dadgenis mowmobiT) da 2. mxolod dedis gancxadebis safuZvelze registrirebuli dabadebulebi (ix. diagrama 1.14.).

26

rogorc vxedavT, saqarTveloSi, garkveuli cvalebadobis (3-6%-is farglebSi) miuxedavad, praqtikulad erT doneze rCeboda mxolod dedis gancxadebiT registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebi. misgan gansxvavebiT mniSvnelovani zrdiT xasiaTdeboda mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebi.

diagrama 1.13. qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili (%) yvela dabadebuls Soris saqarTvelosa da evropis zogierT qveyanaSi

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

saqarTvelo 4.7 18.2 29.2 36.4

ruseTi 10.8 14.6 21.1 27.9

saberZneTi 1.5 2.2 3.0 4.0

estoneTi 18.3 27.1 44.1 54.0

SvedeTi 39.7 47.0 53.0 55.3

bulgareTi 10.9 12.4 25.7 35.1

1980 1990 1995 1999



diagrama 1.14. qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili (%) mSobelTa erToblivi da dedis gancxadebis mixedviT: saqarTvelo, 1989-2000 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

mSobelTa gancxadebiT 12.5 13.7 14.4 17.2 21.0 25.2 25.3 26.5 28.2 29.7 31.7 34.8

dedis gancxadebiT 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.9 3.2 3.9 4.4 5.2 5.7 4.7 4.2

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000



amdenad, qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis zrda saqarTveloSi, 1990-ian wlebSi, ganpirobebuli iyo im dabadebulebiT, romlebic registrirebuli iyvnen mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT (mamobis dadgenis mowmobiT).

bevr qveyanaSi amisagan gansxvavebul viTarebas aqvs adgili. magaliTad, ruseTSi, qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa saerTo wilis

27

naxevarze mets rogorc 1980-ian, iseve 1990-ian wlebSi mxolod dedis gancxadebiT registrirebuli dabadebulebi Seadgenen11.

aRniSnuli garemoeba gvafiqrebinebs, rom saqarTveloSi dabadebuli bavSvebis SemTxvevaSi, romlebic registrirebuli arian mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT, maTi mSoblebi faqtobriv, maT Soris religiur qorwinebaSi imyofebian, rasac saqarTveloSi jer ar gaaCnia iuridiuli mniSvneloba.

yuradRebas iqcevs yvela dabadebuls Soris qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis wili dedis asakis mixedviT.

diagrama 1.15. qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili (%) dedis asakis mixedviT saqarTveloSi

0

1020

30

4050

60

1989 40.2 15.7 12.4 13.6 17.5 20.3 24.6

2000 56.6 39.7 33.8 31.0 33.2 35.3 34.2

-20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 65. 1979-1989 wlebi aRebulia: m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 104 1999 weli gaangariSebulia Cvens mier demografiuli statistikis sammarTvelosa da Sinameurneobebis gamokvlevebis monacemebis safuZvelze

qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis yvelaze meti wili 20 wlamde asakis dedebze modis. 1989 wels, marTalia, maTze mniSvnelovnad naklebi, magram sxva asakobriv jgufebTan SedarebiT sagrZnobi iyo aseve 45 wlisa da ufrosi asakis dedebis mier qorwinebis gareSe dabadebuli bavSvebis wili.

diagrama 1.16. Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi (‰) saqarTveloSi 1999 wels qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis mixedviT

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 66.

11 Население России 2000. Отв. ред. А. Г. Вишневский. М., 2001, с. 46.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

qorwinebis gareSe 8.7 33.9 44.3

qorwinebiTi 105.4 85.8 49.3

1979 1989 1999

28

jer kidev 1979 wels qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koeficienti Zalian dabali iyo da mniSvnelovnad naklebi, vidre qorwinebiTi Sobadobis koeficienti. ukve 1989 wlisaTvis qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis done mniSvnelovnad gaizarda, xolo qorwinebiTi Sobadobis _ Semcirda, Tumca is 2, 5-jer mainc awarbebda qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis donesTan SedarebiT. 1990-ian wlebSi qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba ganagrZobs zrdas, xolo qorwinebiTi Sobadoba _ klebas. amis Sedegad qorwinebis gareSe da qorwinebiTi Sobadobis done erTmaneTs dauaxlovda. 1999 wels qorwinebis gareSe da qorwinebiTi Sobadobis koeficientebi ukve umniSvnelod gansxvavdeboda, Tumca qorwinebiTi Sobadobis done jer kidev mainc ramdenadme maRali iyo, vidre qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis done (ix. diagrama 1.16.).

qorwinebiTi Sobadobis klebis fonze, qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koeficientis sidide rom ar gazrdiliyo da 1989 wlis doneze darCeniliyo, maSin saqarTveloSi 1999 wels 4, 2 aTasiT naklebi bavSvi daibadeboda.

zemoT moyvanili maCveneblebi mainc ar iZleva imis saSualebas, rom vimsjeloT Sobadobis intensivobaze qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis mixedviT. amis SesaZleblobas asakobrivi koeficientebi iZleva.

vnaxoT Tu ra mdgomareoba iyo am mxriv 1999 wels.

diagrama 1.17. Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi saqarTveloSi (‰) 1999 wels qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis mixedviT

0

2040

60

80

100120

140

160

-20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+

%0

daqorwinebulebi

dauqorwineblebi


ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 66. gaangariSebulia sd demografiuli statistikis sammarTvelosa da Sinameurneobebis gamokvlevebis monacemebis safuZvelze.

rogorc vxedavT, miuxedavad imisa, rom 20 wlamde asakSi qorwinebis gareSe meti bavSvi ibadeba, vidre qorwinebaSi, daqorwinebulebis Sobadobis intensivoba gacilebiT metia (5, 2-jer), vidre dauqorwineblebis.

saerTod, sxvadasxva zomiT, magram 30 wlamde asakis daqorwinebuli qalebis Sobadobis intensivoba metia, vidre igive asakis dauqorwinebeli qalebis. 30 wlisa da ufrosi asakis qalebSi ukve dauqorwineblebis Sobadobis intensivoba Warbobs daqorwinebulebisas.

1999 wlis monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom saqarTveloSi, Cveni SefasebiT, erT daqorwinebul qals mTeli cxovrebis manZilze saSualod eyoleba 2, 1 bavSvi, xolo dauqorwinebel qals _ 1, 1, anu erTi bavSviT naklebi.

29

1.3. mokvdaoba da sicocxlis xangrZlivoba

mokvdaobis nebismieri maCvenebeli damokidebulia gardacvlilTa Sesaxeb informaciaze. rac ufro sruli da srulfasovania informacia gardacvlilTa Sesaxeb, miT ufro sandoa mokvdaobis maCveneblebi.

is, rom 1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi gardacvlilTa arasrul aRricxvas hqonda adgili, sadReisod ukve aravis eeWveba.

unda aRiniSnos, rom gardacvlilTa arasruli registracia saqarTveloSi axali movlena ar aris da Zalian Sors rom ar wavideT mas 1960-1980-ian wlebSic hqonda adgili.

ucxoelma eqspertebma aRniSnul movlenas yuradReba SedarebiT adre miaqcies. saqarTvelo am TvalsazrisiT gamonaklisi ar iyo da gardacvlilTa arasruli registracia, igive ucxoeli eqspertebis varaudiT, sxvadasxva zomiT, damaxasiaTebeli iyo (1960-1980-ian wlebSi da ufro adrec) rogorc yofili sabWoTa kavSiris respublikebisaTvis, iseve msoflios sxva mravali qveynisaTvis.

gardacvlilTa registraciis mocva 1990-ian wlebSi msoflios arcTu ise mcire qveynebSi warmoadgenda problemas. magaliTad, braziliaSi (1992 w.) registraciis gareSe rCeboda gardacvlilTa 26%, xolo hon-kongSi (1995 w.) _ 14%12.

motanil diagramaze (ix. diagrama 1.18.) naCvenebia gardacvlilTa raodenoba yofili sabWoTa kavSiris zogierT respublikaSi 1960-1965 wlebSi adgilibrivi statistikuri organoebisa da gaeros eqspertTa Sefasebis mixedviT da misgan gamomdinare gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis wili (%).

diagrama 1.18. gardacvlilTa raodenoba adgilobrivi statistikuri organoebisa da gaeros eqspertebis Sefasebis mixedviT da misgan gamomdinare arasruli registraciis wili 1960-1965 ww.

01020304050607080

saqar

Tvelo

somxeT

i

azer

baijani

estoneT

i

TueqmeneT

i

bel

orusia

aTasi oficialuri

gaero

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

saqar

Tvelo

somxeT

i

azer

baijani

estoneT

i

TueqmeneT

i

bel

orusia

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba

(1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 85; Население СССР.1987: Статистический сборник. М., 1988, с. 112-126; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables. UN, N.Y., 1999, pp. 82, 88, 98, 182, 200, 406.

motanili diagramidan gamomdinareobs, rom gaeros eqspertebis SefasebiT, 1960-1965 wlebSi saqarTveloSi saSualod weliwadSi aRuricxavi rCeboda 20 aTasamde gardacvlili, xolo arasruli aRricxvis wili 40%-s Seadgenda. es ukanaskneli sakmaod maRali maCvenebelia da naklebia mxolod Sua aziis respublikebis Sesabamis maCveneblebze.

12 World Health Statistics Annual (WHO). Genève, 1998.

30

gardacvlilTa registraciis TvalsazrisiT, somxeTsa da azerbaijanSic, gaeros eqspertebis Sefasebidan gamomdinare, saqarTvelosTan SedarebiT, gacilebiT ukeTesi mdgomareoba iyo.

gardacvlilTa registraciis mocvis TvalsazrisiT, Zalian kargi mdgomareoba iyo estoneTsa da baltiispireTis sxva respublikebSi.

ganvixiloT gardacvlilTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi ufro xangrZlivi periodisaTvis sxvadasxva monacemebiT.

diagramaze (1.19.) motanilia saqarTveloSi 1960-1980-ian wlebSi gardacvlilTa raodenoba statistikis departamentis, gaeros eqspertTa da avtorebis SefasebiTi monacemebis mixedviT da gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis wili gaerosa da SefasebiTi monacemebidan gamomdinare.

diagrama 1.19. gardacvlilTa raodenoba sd, gaerosa da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebis mixedviT da gardacvlilTa arasruli registraciis wili 1960-1990 ww.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

aTasi

sd gaero Sefaseba

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba

(1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 85; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables. UN, N.Y., 1999, p. 200.

rogorc gaeros eqspertTa, aseve mocemuli naSromis avtorebis Sefasebidan gamomdinareobs, rom gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi (1960-1990 ww.) adgili hqonda gardacvlilTa arasrul registracias.

orive SefasebiT, 1960 wlidan, gardacvlilTa registraciis mocva umjobesdeboda (gaeros SefasebiT garkveulwilad gauaresda 1980-1985 ww.) da karg mdgomareobas miaRwia 1980-iani wlebis bolosaTvis.

gaeros eqspertTa SefasebiT, gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxva saqarTveloSi meti iyo, vidre es mocemuli naSromis avtorebis Sefasebidan gamomdinareobs.

mocemul SemTxvevaSi aRvniSnavT, rom statistikis departamentis monacemebiT, 1960-1990 wlebSi, gardacvlilTa raodenobam Seadgina 1185 aTasi, mocemuli naSromis avtorebis SefasebiT _ 1350 aTasi, xolo gaeros eqspertTa SefasebiT _ 1400 aTasi.

1960-1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi gardacvlilTa arasrulma registraciam saerTo jamSi Seadgina: gaeros eqspertTa Sefasebidan gamomdinare _ 215 aTasi (15, 4%), xolo mocemuli naSromis avtorebis SefasebiT _ 165 aTasi (12, 2%).

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, gardacvlilTa registracia saqarTveloSi 1960 wlidan umjobesdeboda da praqtikulad 99% mocvas miaRwia 1980-iani wlebis bolosaTvis.

1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi mimdinare politikur, socialur-ekonomikur da sazogadoebriv cvlilebebs statistikis organoebi (iseve rogorc bevri sxva uwyeba) moumzadebeli Sexvda, rasac mohyva, rogorc

31

gardacvlilTa, ise sxva demografiuli SemTxvevebisa statistikuri aRricxvis gauareseba.

1990-ian wlebSi, 1980-ian da 1970-ian wlebTan SedarebiTac ki, gaizarda gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis done.

unda aRiniSnos, rom 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Semdeg moxda aRweraTaSorisi (1989 da 2002 ww.) periodis demografiuli maCveneblebis gadaangariSeba, maT Soris gardacvlilTa raodenobis.

diagramaze (1.20.) naCvenebia gardacvlilTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 wlebSi statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebamdeli, gadaangariSebis Semdgomi monacemebisa da mocemuli naSromis avtorebis SefasebiT.

diagrama 1.20. gardacvlilTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi sd da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT 1990-2000 ww. (aTasi)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

aTas

i

sd gadaangariSebamde 46.0 46.5 46.8 48.9 41.6 37.9 34.4 37.7 39.4 40.4 41.3

sd gadaangariSebis

Semdeg

50.7 52.4 55.1 57.5 50.3 49.1 48.0 47.6 47.3 47.2 47.4

Cveni Sefaseba 49.0 51.6 54.4 57.4 50.4 49.9 49.3 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


2002, p. 36; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 38.

rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentis monacemebi gardacvlilTa raodenobis Sesaxeb gadaangariSebamde (anu registrirebuli) da gadaangariSebis Semdgomi (sd Sefaseba) mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan. statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebuli monacemebi gardacvlilTa raodenobis Sesaxeb, garkveuli gansxvavebis miuxedavad, Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebis msgavsia. statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebamdeli monacemebiT saqarTveloSi, 1990-2000 wlebSi, gardaicvala 460, 9 aTasi adamiani, xolo gadaangariSebuli monacemebiT _ 552, 6 aTasi. imave dros Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT gardacvlilTa raodenobam Seadgina 560, 2 aTasi.

Cveni Safasebis meTodi adreul naSromSi iqna ganxiluli13. amitom mas aq aRar SevexebiT.

gardacvlilTa raodenobis arasruli aRricxva aisaxa mokvdaobis zogad koeficientebSic. zogierT wlebSi gansxvaveba sakmaod mniSvnelovani iyo.

motanili diagrama (1.21.) asaxavs mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientis cvlilebas saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 ww. statistikis departamentis

13 g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 88-93, 106.

32

gadaangariSebamdeli da gadaangariSebuli monacemebisa da Cveni Sefasebis mixedviT 5-wliani intervalebiT.

diagrama 1.21. mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientebis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 ww. sd gadaangariSebamde, sd gadaangariSebuli da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1319

60

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

‰

sd gadaangariSebamde sd gadaangariSebuli Cveni Sefaseba

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli

ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 107; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, pp. 38-39.

Cveni SefasebiT, mokvdaobis koeficientis yvelaze dabali done 1965-1974 wlebSi iyo. momdevno wlebSi, Sobadobis Semdgomi klebisa da mosaxleobis asakobriv SemadgenlobaSi mimdinare cvlilebebis Sedegad, mokvdaobis zogadi koeficienti izrdeboda, romelmac maqsimalur sidides, gansaxilvel periodSi 2000 wels miaRwia.

rogorc vxedavT, didi gansxvaveba mokvdaobis zogad koieficientebSi statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris 1960-1964 wlebSi iyo. Semdeg periodSi aRniSnuli gansxvaveba klebulobda da minimumi Seadgina 1985-1989 wlebSi, ris Semdeg SeiniSneba misi mateba.

1990-2000 wlebSi gansxvaveba SeimCneva ara marto statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris, aramed statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebamdel da gadaangariSebul mokvdaobis zogad koeficientebs Soris. gadaangariSebuli monacemebis sidide metia, vidre gadaangariSebamdelis.

amdenad, SefasebiTi monacemebiT, 1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi mokvdaobis zogadi koeficienti ganagrZobda zrdas da sakmaod maRal dones miaRwia 2000 wlisaTvis.

mTlianobaSi, 1960 wlidan, mokvdaobis SefasebiTi monacemebis TvalsazrisiT ganxilvas mivyavarT rogorc sicocxlis xangrZlivobis evoluciis, ise zogadad demografiuli gadasvlis axlebur gagebamde bolo 40 wlis ganmavlobaSi (1960-2000 ww.).

qvemoT motanili mokvdaobis asakobrivi cvlilebis analizi daefuZneba mxolod SefasebiT monacemebs.

pirvel rigSi vnaxoT, Tu ra cvlilebebi moxda am mxriv xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi.

aRniSnulze naTel warmodgenas iZleva motanili diagrama. (1.22.).

33

rogorc vxedavT, 1960 welTan SedarebiT, mniSvnelovnad Semcirda 25 wlamde asakis mamakacebis mokvdaobis koeficientebi. maTTan SedarebiT naklebad Semcirda 25-34 wlis asakis mamakacebis mokvdaoba da ucvleli darCa 35-39 wlis asakis mamakacebis mokvdaoba. amave periodSi gaizarda 40-69 wlis asakis mamakacebis mokvdaoba da praqtikulad umniSvnelo cvlileba ganicada 70-84 wlis mamakacebis mokvdaobam. 1970-1979 wlebSi, 1960 welTan SedarebiT, erT doneze yofnis Semdeg, 2000 wlisaTvis ramdenadme gaizarda 85 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mamakacebis mokvdaoba.

diagrama 1.22. mokvdaobis asakobrivi koeficientebis fardobiTi cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1970-2000 wlebSi (swori xazi _ 1960 wlis done)



qalebis SemTxvevaSi kleba ganicada (marTalia, sxvadasxva zomiT) yvela asakobrivi jgufis mokvdaobis koeficientebma, garda 85 wlisa da ufrosi asakisa, romlisTvisac wina periodTan SedarebiT, 2000 wlisaTvis mokvdaobis ramdenadme zrdas hqonda adgili.

unda aRiniSnos, rom qalebis SemTxvevaSi, mokvdaobis kleba sxvadasxva asakobrivi jgufisaTvis gansxvavebuli zomiT iyo damaxasiaTebeli. yvelaze mniSvnelovnad Semcirda 1-14 wlis asakis gogonebis mokvdaoba. maTTan SedarebiT, ramdenadme naklebi iyo erT wlamde da 15-19 wlis asakis qalebis mokvdaobis kleba. kidev ufro mcire zomiT daiklo 40-59 wlis qalebis mokvdaobam, xolo 60-84 wlis asakis qalebisaTvis mokvdaobis kleba yvelaze umniSvnelo iyo.

vnaxoT, Tu ra gansxvaveba iyo sxvadasxva asakis mamakacebisa da qalebis mokvdaobas Soris.

aRniSnulze warmodgenas iZleva motanili diagrama (1.23.). rogorc vxedavT, mamakacebis mokvdaoba qalebis mokvdaobas yvela

asakSi Warbobs, Tumca 1960-2000 wlebSi zogierT asakSi sakmaod mniSvnelovan cvlilebas hqonda adgili.

2000 wlisaTvis, 1960 welTan SedarebiT, gaizarda 75 wlamde asakis mosaxleobaSi mamakacebsa da qalebs Soris mokvdaobis fardoba.

aRniSnuli gansxvavebis cvlileba sxvadasxva asakisaTvis gansxvavebuli zomiT iyo damaxasiaTebeli.

gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovan zrdas da amdenad mamakacebis mokvdaobis siWarbes qalebTan SedarebiT adgili hqonda 20-64 wlis asakSi.

1960 welTan SedarebiT, 2000 wlisaTvis, 25-44 wlis asakSi mamakacebis Warbmokvdaoba 2-jer gaizarda, xolo 45-59 wlis asakSi _ 1, 5-jer.

mamakacebi qalebi

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+ 0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+asaki

1970 1979 1989 2000

34

movlenebis aseTi ganviTarebis Sedegad, 2000 wlisaTvis 20-44 wlis asakis mamakacebis mokvdaoba Warbobda Sesabamisi asakis qalebis mokvdaobas 3 da metjer, xolo 45-64 wlis asakSi _ 2 da metjer.

jer kidev 1960-ian wlebSi, 2000 welTan da 1970-1980 wlebTan SedarebiTac ki, mamakacebis Warbmokvdaoba gacilebiT naklebi iyo.

diagrama 1.23. mamakacebisa da qalebis mokvdaobis koeficientebis Tanafardoba saqarTvelosa (SefasebiTi monacemebiT) da SvedeTSi

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+

asaki

1960

1970

1979

1989

2000

SvedeTi (1997)



Tavisi mniSvnelobidan gamomdinare, calke ganvixilavT erT wlamde asakSi gardacvlili bavSvebis mokvdaobas (CvilTa mokvdaoba).

aRsaniSnavia, rom zogadad gardacvlilTa raodenobis registraciisagan gansxvavebiT, gardacvlili Cvilebis aRricxva, 1980-ian da Semdgom wlebSi, statistikis departamentis mier gauaresda. amaze ara marto Cveni SefasebiTi, aramed jandacvis monacemebic metyveleben.

1980 wlidan dRemde, mxolod 1981 wels gardacvlil CvilTa raodenoba statistikis departamentis monacemebiT aRemateboda jandacvis Sesabamis monacemebs. yvela sxva wels ukve jandacvis mier registrirebuli gardacvlili Cvilebis raodenoba Warbobda statistikis departamentis Sesabamis monacemebs.

1974-1979 wlebSi statistikis departamentis mier registrirebuli gardacvlili Cvilebi mniSvnelovnad Warbobdnen jandacvis Sesabamis monacemebs. 1974 wlamde jandacvas ar gaaCnda saTanado monacemebi gardacvlil CvilTa raodenobis Sesaxeb.

1975-1979 wlebSi, saSualod weliwadSi, statistikis departamentis monacemebiT 322 gardacvlili CviliT meti iyo registrirebuli, vidre jandacvis mier. ukve 1980-1984 wlebSi, saSualod weliwadSi, jandacvis saministros monacemebiT 105 gardacvlili CviliT meti iyo aRricxuli, vidre statistikis departamentis mier. momdevno wlebSi gansxvaveba izrdeboda da amdenad ufro mniSvnelovani iyo.

SefasebiT monacemebs Tu ar miviRebT mxedvelobaSi, 1980 wlamde statistikis departamentis monacemebi gardacvlil CvilTa Sesaxeb ufro srulia jandacvis Sesabamis monacemebTan SedarebiT, xolo 1980 wlidan

35

(1981 wlis garda) ukve jandacvis saministros monacemebi ufro srulfasovania statistikis departamentis monacemebeTan SedarebiT.

rac Seexeba CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebs, jandacvis saministros monacemebTan SedarebiT statistikis departamentis Sesabamisi monacemebi cocxlad dabadebulTa Sesaxeb, 1996 wlamde, ufro srulia.

gasaTvaliswinebelia is garemoebac, rom 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Semdeg statistikis departamentis mier moxda gardacvlili Cvilebis raodenobisa da Sesabamisi koeficientebis gadaangariSeba-koreqtireba. amdenad, statistikis departamentis monacemebi Cvil bavSvTa mokvdaobis koeficientebis Sesaxeb 1990-2000 wlebisaTvis axleburad warmogvidgeba.

cxrili 1.4. CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi sd, jandacvisa da SefasebiTi monacemebiT 1960-2000 ww. (1000 cocxlad dabadebulze)

weli sd

gadaangariSebamde sd

gadaangariSebuli jandacva Sefaseba

1960 36.8 40.0 1965 33.9 36.5 1970 25.3 27.0 1975 32.7 29.9 33.7 1980 25.4 26.2 26.8 1985 24.0 26.9 27.0 1990 15.8 20.7 19.7 20.7 1991 13.7 20.5 21.1 20.6 1992 12.4 20.5 20.5 20.9 1993 16.9 27.6 24.5 28.0 1994 16.7 28.6 25.2 28.8 1995 13.1 28.2 23.7 28.3 1996 17.4 28.0 27.8 28.0 1997 16.3 23.9 24.1 24.0 1998 15.2 22.0 21.0 21.9 1999 17.5 22.2 23.4 22.0 2000 14.9 22.6 21.1 22.1

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 115; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 86.

rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentis mier ukve gadaangariSebuli CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi da Sesabamisi SefasebiTi koeficientebi msgavsia. calkeul wels statistikis departamentisa da jandacvis saministros monacemebis sidide CvilTa mokvdaobis Sesaxeb umniSvnelod metia Sesabamis SefasebiT monacemebze. aseTi mdgomareoba gamowveulia imiT, rom cocxlad dabadebaTa raodenoba, romelic gaiTvaliswineba CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientis gaangariSebisas, statistikis departamentisa da jandacvis saministros monacemebiT naklebia SefasebiT monacemebTan SedarebiT.

negatiur movlenad unda CaiTvalos is mdgomareoba, rom garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti saqarTveloSi isev maRal doneze rCeba da 2000 wels ramdenadme maRalic iyo (statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiTi monacemebiT) 1990 welTan SedarebiT.

36

1995-2000 wlebSi, saqarTvelo, CvilTa mokvdaobis maCveneblebis mixedviT msoflioSi 81 adgilze imyofeboda.

amasTan, aRsaniSnavia is garemoeba, rom bevr qveyanaSi, bolo wlebSi CvilTa mokvdaoba mniSvnelovnad Semcirda.

qvemoT motanilia SefasebiTi monacemebis safuZvelze gaangariSebuli mokvdaoba sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT (X gadasinjva).

cxrili 1.5. gardacvlilTa wili (%) saqarTveloSi 1989 da 2000 ww. daavadebaTa zogierTi ZiriTadi klasis mixedviT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

1989 2000sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 63.9 71.8axalwarmonaqmnebi 11.5 10.8sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 6.1 2.8saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi 3.7 3.2travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis

zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegi 6.7 2.8zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 1.6 0.9endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da

nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevis daavadebebi1.4 2.0

Sardsasqeso sistemis daavadebebi 1.2 0.4perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli

mdgomareobebi1.4 1.5

sxva 2.5 3.8sul 100.0 100.0

gardacvlilTa wili (%)



rogorc vxedavT, gardacvlilTa meti wili sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebsa da axalwarmonaqmnebze modis. amasTan, 2000 wlisaTvis, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, yvela gardacvlils Soris, gaizarda sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebiT gardacvlilebis wili da ramdenadme Semcirda axalwarmonaqmnebiT gardacvlilTa wili.

2000 wlisaTvis, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, 3-jer gaizarda im gardacvlilTa raodenoba, romlis sikvdilis mizezi Setanil iqna klasSi _ simptomebi, niSnebi da normidan gadaxrebi, gamovlenili klinikuri da laboratoriuli gamokvlevebisas, romlebic ar arian klasificirebuli sxva rubrikebSi. aseTi zrda ZiriTadad sikvdilis mizezis arasrulfasovani dadgenis Sedegs unda warmoadgendes14.

gardacvlilTa wilis zrda an kleba sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT erTmniSvnelovnad ar mianiSnebs arc mokvdaobis intensivobis cvlilebaze da arc am cvlilebis zomaze sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT.

aRniSnuli cvlilebebis garkveva sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT mokvdaobis koeficientebis Sedarebis gziT aris SesaZlebeli.

yuradRebas iqcevs mokvdaobis zrda sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisa da axalwarmonaqmnebis Sedegad. 2000 wels, 1989 welTan

14 es mosazreba, romelsac Cven viziarebT, gamoTqmuli iyo amerikeli (aSS) eqspertis baton

robert israelis mier.

37

SedarebiT, mniSvnelovnad gaizarda mokvdaoba endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevis daavadebebisagan. samagierod Semcirda mokvdaoba zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli da sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebisagan, agreTve travmebis, mowamvlebis da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegisagan. aSkarad arasasurvel tendenciad unda miviCnioT mokvdaobis zrda perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebisagan.

diagrama 1.24. mamakacebisa da qalebis mokvdaobis koeficientebi zogierTi sikvdilis mizezis mixedviT saqarTveloSi 1989 da 2000 wlebSi Sesabamisi sqesisa da asakis 100000 adamianze (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

mamakacebi qalebi

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1989

2000

1. zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba. 2. axalwarmonaqmnebi. 3. endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis

darRvevis daavadebebi. 4. sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi. 5. sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi. 6. saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi. 7. perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi. 8. travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva

Sedegi.

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 118.

2000 da 1999 wlebSi, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, mokvdaobis koeficientebis fardobiT cvlilebas sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT) gviCvenebs motanili diagrama (1.25.).

rogorc motanili diagramidan gamomdinareobs, 2000 wlisaTvis, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, yvelaze mniSvnelovnad moimata mokvdaobam endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobisa da nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevis daavadebebisagan, gansakuTrebiT mamakacebSi. rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, am daavadebebiT gardacvlilebi gardaclilTa saerTo raodenobaSi 2000 wlisaTvis mxolod 2%-s Seadgenda.

gacilebiT arsebiTi iyo, mokvdaobis koeficientebis mniSvnelobidan gamomdinare, sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebiT mokvdaobis zrda.

38

2000 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, Semcirda mamakacebis mokvdaoba zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebisagan, Tumca imave dros gaizarda qalebis mokvdaoba igive daavadebebiT.

diagrama 1.25. mokvdaobis koeficientebis fardobiTi cvlileba saqarTveloSi sikvdilis zogierTi mizezis mixedviT (swori xazi _ 1989 wlis done)

mamakacebi qalebi

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

19992000



Sedegi.


2000 wels, wina welTan SedarebiTac ki, ramdenadme gaizarda mokvdaoba sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebiT, axalwarmonaqmnebiT, endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevis daavadebebiT, perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT.

1999 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT mokvdaobis mniSvnelovan Semcirebas 2000 wlisaTvis mohyva misi zrda, Tumca is mainc ufro nakleb doneze rCeboda, vidre 1989 wels iyo.

2000 wels, 1999 welTan SedarebiT, ramdenadme daiklo mokvdaobam saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebiT da travmebiT, mowamvlebiT da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis ыz ogi er sistemisa da Sardsasqeso sistemis daavadebebiT.

aRniSnuli zogadi cvlilebebi, sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT, gansxvavdeboda asakisa da sqesis mixedviT. amasTan, yovel konkretul klass asakobrivi mokvdaobis garkveuli Taviseburebebi axasiaTebs.

rac Seexeba erT wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaobas, ganvlil periodSi, misma mokvdaobis struqturam mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi ganicada.

39

2000 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, mniSvnelovnad Semcirda mokvdaoba zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebisagan (2, 6-jer biWebSi da 3, 4-jer gogonebSi), sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebisagan (1, 8-jer biWebSi da 2-jer gogonebSi) da ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebiT, deformaciebiTa da qromosomuri anomaliebiT (3-jer biWebSi da 1, 7-jer gogonebSi). imave dros sakmaod gaizarda mokvdaoba perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT (2-jer biWebSi da 2, 3-jer gogonebSi). amasTan, 2000 wels, 1999 welTan SedarebiT, arasasurvel movlenas hqonda adgili im TvalsazrisiT, rom gaizarda rogorc biWebis (Zalian umniSvnelod), ise gansakuTrebiT gogonebis mokvdaoba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT da gogonebis mokvdaoba zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebisagan. aSkarad uaryofiTad unda Sefasdes agreTve mokvdaobis zrdis tendencia perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT.

diagrama 1.26. erT wlamde gardacvlil bavSvTa mokvdaobis koeficienti saqarTveloSi sikvdilis zogierTi mizezis mixedviT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

mamakacebi qalebi

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1989 1999 2000 1989 1999 2000

1 2 3 4

1 _ zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba. 2 – sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi. 3 _ perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi. 4 _ ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebi, deformaciebi da qromosomuri

anomaliebi.


zemoT aRniSnuli sami mizezis saerTo klebis fonze, perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebisagan mokvdaoba rom ar gazrdiliyo da igive doneze darCeniliyo, rac 1989 wels, maSin 2000 wels, CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti 22-is nacvlad iqneboda 14.

rogorc cnobilia, sikvdilis saSualo asaki mokvdaobis erT-erT mTavar struqturul komponents warmoadgens. progresuli, dadebiTi cvlilebebi gamoixateba sikvdilis saSualo asakis zrdaSi, anu sikvdilis gadavadebaSi maRali asakisaken15.

15 Вишневский А., Школьников В. Смертность в России снижается. – Население и общество. 1997, № 23, с.3.

40

am mxriv, saqarTveloSi, 2000 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, dadebiT cvlilebebs hqonda adgili. mTlianobaSi, mamakacebis sikvdilis saSualo asaki 59, 8 wlidan (1989 w.) gaizarda 65,1 wlamde (2000 w.), xolo qalebis 69, 0 wlidan 72, 7 wlamde (Cveni SefasebiT).

diagrama 1.27. sikvdilis saSualo asakis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1989-2000 ww., sikvdilis ZiriTadi 7 klasis mixedviT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

mamakacebi qalebi

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1989 33.0 60.1 62.8 69.3 41.6 58.8 39.5 22.2 61.1 67.2 75.9 43.6 64.9 45.9

2000 45.6 63.7 66.9 70.3 47.3 61.1 45.0 48.3 63.3 69.8 76.3 53.4 70.5 54.4

1 2 3 4 3 6 7 1 2 3 4 3 6 7


darRvevis daavadebebi. 4. sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi. 5. sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi. 6. saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi. 7. travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva

Sedegi. wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli


2000 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, saqarTveloSi gaizarda rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis sikvdilis saSualo asaki daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebis mixedviT. sikvdilis saSualo asakis mateba erTnairi ar iyo daavadebaTa sxvavasxva mizezis mixedviT.

yvelaze metad gaizarda sikvdilis saSualo asaki zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebisa da tramvebiT, mowamvlebiT da GgareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva SedegiT, agreTve sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebisagan.

gacilebiT naklebi iyo sikvdilis saSualo asakis zrda sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisa da axalwarmonqmnebisagan, anu swored im daavadebebisagan, romlebisganac gardacvalebaTa SemTxvevebis didi umravlesoba xdeba.

isic unda aRiniSnos, rom rogorc 1989, ise 2000 wels, sikvdilis saSualo asaki sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisagan yvelaze maRali iyo daavadebaTa sxva ZiriTadi mizezebisagan gamowveul sikvdilis saSualo asakTan SedarebiT.

41

saerTod, ganvlil periodSi, sikvdilis saSualo asakTan dakavSirebiT momxdari cvlilebebi daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebis mixedviT, dadebiTad SeiZleba Sefasdes.

is gansxvavebebi, romlebic aRiniSna mokvdaobis asakobriv koeficientebSi, statistikis departamentisa da Cvens SefasebiT monacemebs Soris, saerTo jamSi, aisaxa sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis doneSic.

diagramaze (1.28) gamosaxulia sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas saqarTveloSi statistikis departamentis, gaeros eqspertTa da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebis mixedviT.

statistikis departamentis mokvdaobis koeficientebze dafuZnebiT gaangariSebuli monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom rogorc qalebis, ise gansakuTrebiT mamakacebis sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas 1960 wlidan 1979 wlamde Semcirda da Semdeg gaizarda 1989 wlisaTvis.

1960-1979 wlebSi, dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis kleba, statistikis departamentis monacemebidan gamomdinare, Cveni azriT, imiT aixsneba, rom aRniSnul periodSi, TandaTan umjobesdeboda gardacvlilTa registracia, romelic 1960-ian wlebSi gacilebiT arasruli iyo, vidre 1970-ian da gansakuTrebiT 1980-ian wlebSi.

diagrama 1.28. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas saqarTveloSi sd, gaeros da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT

Mmamakacebi qalebi

60

65

70

75

80

sd 69.1 67.9 66.7 68.0 75.8 75.4 74.6 75.7

gaero 61.5 65.0 66.5 67.5 69.4 72.9 74.4 75.3

Sefaseba 64.8 66.7 66.4 67.3 69.4 71.8 73.5 75.0

1960 1970 1979 1989 1960 1970 1979 1989


ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 125; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables. UN, N.Y., 1999, p. 200; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 144.

rogorc gaeros eqspertTa, ise Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom 1960-dan 1989 wlis CaTvliT sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba saqarTveloSi izrdeboda.

amdenad, 1960-1989 wlebSi, saqarTveloSi sicocxlis xangrZlivobis evoluciis TvalsazrisiT sul gansxvavebuli suraTi warmogvidgeba, vidre dRemde iyo miCneuli oficialuri monacemebidan gamomdinare. kerZod, 1960-1989 wlebSi sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba saqarTveloSi izrdeboda da mis klebasa, Tu stagnacias adgili ar hqonia.

motanili diagramidan isic naTlad Cans, rom 1960-1989 wlebSi, gansakuTrebiT ki 1960-1970-ian wlebSi, saqarTveloSi, sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas gacilebiT naklebi iyo, vidre amas

42

oficialuri statistikuri monacemebi uCvenebdnen. es gansxvaveba, ZiriTadad, gardacvlilTa arasruli registraciidan gamomdinareobda.

gansxvaveba gaeros eqspertTa da Cvens monacemebs Soris, sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi, mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi, iqidan gamomdinareobs, rom Cveni SefasebiT, didi sxvaoba qalebisa da mamakacebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris ufro 1970-ian da Semdgom wlebSi iCens Tavs, rac am periodSi mamakacebis Warbmokvdaobis zrdis Sedegia.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Semdeg statistikis departamentis mier moxda aRweraTaSorisi periodis mokvdaobis koeficientebis gadaangariSeba da Sesabamisad gadaangariSebul iqna sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba.

cxrili 1.6. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 ww. sd da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT

wlebi sd

gadaangariSebamde sd

gadaangariSebuli sxvaoba maT

Soris Sefaseba

orive sqesi

1990 72.8 71.4 1.4 71.5 1991 73.0 71.2 1.8 71.2 1992 73.0 70.4 2.6 70.5 1993 72.3 68.9 3.4 68.9 1994 74.8 70.2 4.6 70.3 1995 76.8 70.3 6.5 70.5 1996 78.8 70.7 8.1 70.9 1997 78.1 70.9 7.2 71.1 1998 78.3 71.2 7.1 71.2 1999 77.6 71.4 6.2 71.4 2000 75.5 71.3 4.2 71.4

mamakacebi 1990 68.9 67.5 1.4 67.5 1991 68.9 67.1 1.8 67.2 1992 69.0 66.0 3.0 66.1 1993 68.2 64.4 3.8 64.5 1994 70.7 66.0 4.7 66.2 1995 72.6 66.3 6.3 66.6 1996 74.8 66.9 7.9 67.1 1997 74.6 67.1 7.5 67.4 1998 74.2 67.4 6.8 67.5 1999 73.7 67.5 6.2 67.6 2000 73.1 67.5 5.6 67.6

qalebi 1990 76.4 75.0 1.4 75.1 1991 76.7 75.0 1.7 74.9 1992 76.8 74.6 2.2 74.7 1993 76.2 73.2 3.0 73.2 1994 78.5 74.1 4.4 74.2 1995 80.6 74.2 6.4 74.3 1996 82.4 74.3 8.1 74.5 1997 81.3 74.5 6.8 74.6 1998 82.0 74.8 7.2 74.9 1999 81.1 75.1 6.0 75.1 2000 78.1 75.0 3.1 75.0

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2001. Tbilisi, 2002, p. 118; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 144.

43

rogorc motanili cxrilidan Cans statistikis departamentis monacemebi dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis Sesaxeb gadaangariSebamde da gadaangariSebuli, mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan. zogierT wels sxvaoba maT Soris 8 wels aRwevs. statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebuli sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobisa da SefasebiTi maCveneblebi msgavsia.

rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi, sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis klebas adgili hqonda 1991-1993 wlebSi (qalebis SemTxvevaSi agreTve 2000 wels). sxva wlebSi, sxvadasxva zomiT, magram sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba matulobda.

diagrama 1.29. dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 ww. wina welTan SedarebiT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

qalebi 0.09 -0.13 -0.29 -1.45 1.00 0.09 0.16 0.16 0.24 0.20 -0.06

mamakacebi 0.19 -0.36 -1.04 -1.58 1.65 0.38 0.55 0.24 0.13 0.08 0.03

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000



mTlianobaSi aRniSnuli cvlilebebis Sedegi is iyo, rom 2000 wels saqarTveloSi sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas igive doneze aRmoCnda, rac 1989 wels.

aseTi mdgomareobis asaxsnelad ZiriTadad is argumenti gamoiyeneba, rom 1989 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleobaSi, qarTvelebis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba meti iyo (daaxloebiT 2 wliT), vidre saSualod yvela sxva erovnebisa. 1990-ian wlebSi, gare migraciaSi, qarTvelebTan SedarebiT, ufro intensiurad sxva erovnebis warmomadgenlebi monawileobdnen, rasac mohyva saqarTvelos mosaxleobaSi qarTvelebis wilis mateba. amdenad, 2000 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZlivobis 1989 wlis doneze yofna, mTlianobaSi gamowveulia ZiriTadad struqturuli cvlilebebiT, rac imiT gamoixateba, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobaSi Semcirda im erovnebaTa wili, romelTac qarTvelebTan SedarebiT

44

sicocxlis dabali xangrZlivoba hqondaT16. sainteresoa imis dadgena, Tu zogadad ra gavlena iqonia sikvdilis

ZiriTad mizezebSi momxdarma cvlilebebma sicocxlis xangrZlivobaze 1999 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT.

aRniSnulis Taobaze Sesabamisi monacemebi motanilia diagramaze (1.30.).

rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrdaSi mniSvnelovani iyo mokvdaobis Semcireba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebisa (gansakuTrebiT qalebSi) da travmebis, mowamvlebis da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegisagan (gansakuTrebiT mamakacebSi). ramdenadme naklebi iyo sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrda zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebis, axalwarmonaqmnebisa (gansakuTrebiT qalebSi) da saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebisagan mokvdaobis SemcirebiT.

diagrama 1.30. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis cvlilebaSi saqarTveloSi 1999 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2

00.20.40.60.8

1

mamakacebi 0.136 0.139 -0.027 -0.827 0.706 0.025 -0.515 0.74 -0.087

qalebi 0.206 0.011 -0.051 -0.759 0.819 0.033 -0.576 0.396 -0.029

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9



Sedegi. 9. sxva daavadebebi.

wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 130

imave dros, sicocxlis xangrZlivobis klebaSi, gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani iyo mokvdaobis mateba sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis

16 g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe. sicocxlis xangrZlivoba saqarTveloSi. _ socialuri ekonomika. 2000, # 3. gv. 36-40. aRniSnulis Sesaxeb pirvelad azri gamoTqva v. Skolnikovma 1999 wels, romelic SemdgomSi statistikuri masalis analizis Sedegad dadasturebul iqna Cvens mier.

45

daavadebebisa da perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebisagan.

aRniSnul daavadebaTa ori ZiriTadi klasisagan, mikvdaoba 1999 wels iseTive doneze rom darCeniliyo, rac 1989 wels, maSin sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba 1999 wels rogorc mamakacebisaTvis, ise qalebisaTvis, saqarTveloSi 1, 3 wliT meti iqneboda.

sainteresoa, Tu ZiriTadad romel daavadebaTa klasebisagan mokvdaoba gansazRvravda sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi gansxvavebas qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris. amis Sesabamisi monacemebi motanilia diagramaze 1.31.

rogorc 1989 wels, ise 1999 wels sxvaobas mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris ZiriTadad gansazRvravda mokvdaoba sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisa da travmebis, mowamvlebis da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegisagan. amasTan, 1999 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT, gaizarda gansxvaveba sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris, romelic gamowveuli iyo sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisagan mokvdaobiT da Semcirda sxvaoba, gamowveuli travmebis, mowamvlebis da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva SedegiT mokvdaobiT. ganvlil periodSi, garkveuli cvlilebebi ganicada am mxriv sikvdilis sxva mizezebmac.

diagrama 1.31. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi, saqarTvelo: 1989 da 1999 ww. (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1989 0.305 0.733 0.036 3.383 0.435 0.519 0.244 1.368 0.39

1999 0.323 0.554 0.038 3.754 0.237 0.501 0.32 1.229 0.505

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9



Sedegi. 9. sxva daavadebebi. wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli


zemoT aRwerili zogadi suraTi garkveulwilad gansxvavdeba sqesisa da asakis mixedviT.

46

1.4. mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba da aRwarmoeba

dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa registraciis sisrulezea damokidebuli, Tu ramdenad sandoa mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebisa da aRwarmoebis maCveneblebi da ramdenad kargad asaxaven isini realurad arsebul viTarebas.

zemoT aseve naCvenebi iyo, rom saqarTveloSi mimdinare aRricxva srulad ver moicavs dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa raodenobas.

amdenad, registrirebul dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa, _ da aseve mosaxleobis raodenobidan Tu gamovalT, romelsac agreTve gare migraciis arasruli aRricxvac amaxinjebs, _ maSin Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis arasrulfasovan maCveneblebs miviRebT.

Tavis mxriv, isini mosaxleobis aRwarmoebisa da bunebrivi matebis araswor maCveneblebamde migviyvanen, rac sabolood arsebuli demografiuli viTarebisa da misi perspeqtivebis araswor Sefasebas gamoiwvevs.

amitom, qvemoT bunebrivi matebisa da mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis ganxilvisas gamoviyenebT mxolod ukve koreqtirebul (SefasebiT) monacemebs.

saqarTveloSi, gansaxilvel periodSi (1960-2000 ww.), SedarebiT maRali bunebrivi matebiT gamoirCeoda 1960-1965 wlebi, Semdeg wlebSi garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, bunebrivi mateba mcirdeba. 1989 wels saqarTveloSi bunebrivi mateba, mosaxleobis 1000 sulze, 2-jer naklebi iyo, vidre 1960 wels.

bunebrivi matebis klebas ori procesi ganapirobebda _ Sobadobis Semcireba da mokvdaobis zrda.

Sobadobis donis mkveTrma Semcirebam 1992-1993 wlebSi gamoiwvia bunebrivi matebis mniSvnelovani kleba.

diagrama 1.32. bunebrivi mateba (raodenoba da koeficienti) saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)



amasTan, mosaxleobis daberebas mohyva mokvdaobis zrda, ramac kidev ufro Seamcira bunebrivi mateba Zalian dabal donemde, xolo 1999-2000 wlebSi praqtikulad nulamde davida. saqarTveloSi dabadebulebisa da gardacvlilebis raodenoba erTmaneTs gautolda.

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Sobadobis zrdis perspeqtivebi sadReisod naklebad mosalodnelia. amitom mokvdaobis Semdgom zrdas mohyveba saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis kleba “bunebrivi” gziT, anu depopulacia.

Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis Semcirebas, Sesabamisad, mohyva mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientebis kleba. es ukanaskneli im saxis cvlilebebs ganicdida, rasac Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti.

1970-iani wlebis dasawyisSi, garkveuli matebis Semdeg, mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti ganagrZobda klebas da 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi misi sidide praqtikulad mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebis zRvramde Semcirda. ukve 1992 wels neto koeficientis sidide martivi aRwarmoebis zRvars qvemoT aRmoCnda da aseTad rCeba dRemde.

diagrama 1.33. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

0.7

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swori xazi _ mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebis done


amdenad, saqarTveloSi 1960-1980 wlebSi mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis gafarToebuli reJimi 1992 wlidan Sekvecili reJimiT Seicvala da am droidan dRemde saqarTveloSi damkvidrebulia mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecili reJimi.

es imas niSnavs, rom dedaTa Taoba mxolod nawilobriv iqneba Senacvlebuli maTi gogonebis TaobiT. 2000 wlis mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientis mniSvnelobidan gamomdinareobs, rom dedaTa Taobis mxolod 78%-mde iqneba ganaxlebuli maTi gogonebis TaobiT. daaxloebiT msgavs viTarebas aqvs adgili 1993 wlidan.

aRniSnuli praqtikulad imis tolfasia, rom 2020 wlidan saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobam 1990-iani wlebis Sua periodis mosaxleobis raodenobis mxolod 80%-mde Seadginos (gare migraciis gareSe).

rogorc cnobilia, mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba uCvenebs, Tu saSualod ramdeni gogo unda gaaCinos erTma qalma, rom uzrunvelyofil iqnas dedaTa Taobis imave raodenobiT Senacvleba (martivi aRwarmoeba). mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba miT ufro maRalia, rac ufro axlosaa 1-Tan misi sidide17.

rogorc vxedavT, 1960 wlidan saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba sul ufro izrdeboda. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis

17 demografiis mokle enciklopediuri leqsikoni. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 186.

48

reJimis gauareseba da gafarToebulis SekveciliT Secvla mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiurobis zrdis pirobebSi mimdinareobda.

diagrama 1.34. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 ww. (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

11.011.021.031.041.051.061.071.08

1960

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1960 wels saqarTveloSi 100 dedas saSualod 108 gogona unda gaeCina, rom momxdariyo dedaTa Taobis gogonaTa TaobiT ganaxleba. 1975 wels amisaTvis 105 gogona iyo sakmarisi, xolo 1990-ian wlebSi _ 103.

ase rom am mxriv saqarTveloSi mdgomareoba umjobesdeboda. gauaresda is, rom 100 dedas 100 gogonaze naklebi eyoleba da amdenad ver moxdeba dedaTa Taobis ganaxleba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom am mxriv evropis bevr qveyanaSi, saqarTvelosTan SedarebiT, ukeTesi mdgomareoba ar aris.

diagrama 1.35. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti saqarTvelosa da zogierT qveyanaSi

0.50

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saqarTvelo 1.17 1.17 1.22 1.18 1.05 1.11 1.08 0.79 0.76

ruseTi 1.14 0.99 0.95 0.92 0.88 1.00 0.90 0.63 0.55

estoneTi 0.89 0.90 1.03 0.99 0.95 1.00 0.97 0.63 0.59

SvedeTi 1.04 1.15 0.92 0.85 0.81 0.84 1.03 0.84 0.72

saberZneTi 0.99 1.01 1.12 1.06 1.08 0.79 0.67 0.64 0.62

germania 1.11 1.18 0.95 0.68 0.68 0.60 0.69 0.64 0.65

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999



49

1.5. qorwineba

qorwineba warmoadgens sazogadoebriv urTierTobaTa ganviTarebis garkveul safexurze kanoniT an CveulebiT nebadarTul kavSirs qalsa da mamakacs Soris, romelic awesrigebs maT urTierTobas, Svilebisadmi damokidebulebas da gansazRvravs TiToeuli maTganis adgils sazogadoebriv cxovrebaSi18.

demografiaSi qorwinebas gansazRvraven rogorc SeuRlebuli wyvilebis warmoqmnis process. igi aRniSnavs agreTve Taobis an mosaxleobis qorwinebaSi yofnas19.

qorwinebis demografiul mniSvnelobas warmoadgens misi mWidro kavSiri mosaxleobis aRwarmoebasTan20.

qorwineba bevr faqtorzea damokidebuli, romelTa Soris erT-erTi mniSvnelovania sxvadasxva sqesis da asakis mosaxleobis daqorwinebulebisa da dauqorwineblebis raodenoba, Tu Tanafardoba. Tavis mxriv, qorwinebaTa sixSire mosaxleobis qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis Semadgenlobis erT-erTi ganmsazRvrelTagania21.

naSromis mocemuli nawilis ganxilvisas ZiriTadad SemovifarglebiT registrirebuli qorwinebis arsebuli monacemebiT, Tumca faqtobrivi qorwinebebis sixSire garkveulwilad cvlis am mxriv viTarebas.

diagrama 1.36. qorwinebaSi myofi saqarTvelos mosaxleobis dinamika (Sesabamisi asakisa da sqesis 1000 sulze)

0100200300400500600700800900

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-20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50+1959 1970 1979 1989 1999



18 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. ojaxis krizisi saqarTveloSi da saojaxo politikis principebi. Tbilisi, 1998, gv. 49. 19 iqve. 20 demografiis mokle enciklopediuri leqsikoni. Semdgeneli g. wulaZe. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 267. 21 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 50.

50

mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi (1959-1999 ww.) saSualod, 15 welze ufrosi mamakacebis 70%-mde da igive asakis qalebis 60%-mde imyofeboda qorwinebaSi.

20 wlamde asakis mamakacebisa da qalebis qorwinebaSi myofTa wili, garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, gaizarda, gansakuTrebiT bolo periodSi.

20-24 wlis asakis qorwinebaSi myofi mamakacebisa da qalebis wili jer izrdeboda, xolo 1990-ian wlebSi Semcirda, gansakuTrebiT qalebis wili.

25-49 wlis asakis qorwinebaSi myof mamakacTa wili mTeli periodis ganmavlobaSi ganuxrelad klebulobda, xolo 50 da ufrosi asakis qorwinebaSi myofi mamakacebis wili, garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, 1999 wlisaTvis Semcirda.

25-44 wlis asakis daqorwinebuli qalebis wili, garkveul cvalebadobas ganicdida, Tumca 1999 wlisaTvis, wina periodTan SedarebiT is naklebi aRmoCnda.

45 wlisa da ufrosi asakis qalebis wili, cvlilebis miuxedavad, mTlianobaSi gaizarda.

saqarTveloSi droTa ganmavlobaSi, daqorwinebuli mamakacebisa da qalebis klebis Sedegad, sul izrdeboda qorwinebaSi arasdros myofTa wili. gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovan zrdas hqonda adgili 1990-ian wlebSi.

TvalsaCinoebisaTvis saqarTveloSi mimdinare aRniSnuli procesi gamosaxulia diagramaze.

diagrama 1.37. qorwinebaSi arasdros myofebi saqarTveloSi 1979-1999 ww. (Sesabamisi asakisa da sqesis mosaxleobis 1000 sulze)


miCneulia, rom “saqorwino bazarze” arsebuli viTareba erT-erT im faqtorTagans warmoadgens, romelzedac damokidebulia qorwineba.

“saqorwino bazari” terminia, romelic gamoiyeneba demografiaSi qorwinebis unariani mosaxleobis sxvadasxva jgufis raodenobaTa Tanafardobis aRsaniSnavad. viTareba “saqorwino bazarze” mniSvnelovnad aris damokidebuli mosaxleobaSi potenciuri saqorwino partniorebis raodenobaze, mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobriv Semadgenlobaze. mocemul SemTxvevaSi igulisxmeba gauTxovari qalebis raodenoba saSualod erT dauqorwinebel mamakacze. vinaidan daqorwinebisas mamakacebis asaki saSualod 4 wliT aRemateba qalebis asaks, amitom “saqorwino bazris” gasaangariSeblad gamoiyeneba mamakacebisa da qalebis raodenobaTa Tanafardoba, romlebic mocemuli droisaTvis ar imyofebian qorwinebaSi

51

da amasTan mamakacebis asakobrivi jgufi metia qalebisaze xuTwliani asakobrivi intervaliT22.

1959 wels, yvela asakobriv jgufSi, “saqorwino bazris” TvalsazrisiT qalebis raodenoba Warbobda mamakacebis raodenobas. amasTan, asakis matebasTan erTad izrdeboda qalebis raodenoba, romlebic saSualod erT partnior mamakacze modioda. gansakuTrebiT didi iyo gansxvaveba 30 wlisa da ufrosi asakis qalebisaTvis, Tumca 25-34 wlis erT ucolo mamakacze 2-ze meti qali modioda, rac aseve sakmaod did sxvaobas warmoadgens. 1959 wlis “saqorwino bazari” meore msoflio omis Sedegebsac asaxavs im TvalsazrisiT, rom mamakacebis danakargebi qalebze meti iyo. amitom am dros “saqorwino bazris” formirebaze gavlenas wina (1940-iani ww.) periodi axdenda23.

1970 wels 1959 welTan SedarebiT situacia saqarTvelos “saqorwino bazarze” mniSvnelovnad Seicvala. (ix. cxrili 1.7.). am periodSi garkveuli nivelireba ganicada omis Sedegebma, Tumca 45-49 wlis asakobrivi jgufis mamakacebisaTvis is mainc SeimCneoda.

cxrili 1.7. viTareba saqarTvelos “saqorwino bazarze”

asaki qorwinebaSi armyofi qalebis raodenoba

saSualod erT qorwinebaSi armyof mamakacebze

mamakacebi qalebi 1959 1970 1979 1989 1999

20-24 15-19 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 25-29 20-24 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 30-34 25-29 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.7 1.1 35-39 30-34 7.0 3.1 2.1 2.1 1.4 40-44 35-39 9.4 3.1 2.5 3.2 2.4 45-49 40-44 9.6 7.8 4.7 2.6 2.8


wina periodTan SedarebiT, gaizarda im qalebis raodenoba, romlebic 20-24 wlis mamakacebze modioda. samagierod Semcirda im qalebis raodenoba, romlebic sxva asakobrivi jgufis mamakacebze modioda, Tumca 20 wlis asakidan, yvela sxva asakobriv jgufSi, SeimCneoda saqorwino partniori mamakacebis sakmao deficiti. magaliTad, miuxedavad imisa, rom 1959-1970 wlebSi mniSvnelovnad Semcirda aRniSnuli gansxvaveba 35-44 wlis mamakacebisaTvis, am asakis ucolo mamakacze, 1970 wels, saSualod sami gauTxovari qali modioda24.

1979 wels, 1970 welTan SedarebiT, ZiriTadad Seicvala 30 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mamakacebisa da 25 wlisa da ufrosi asakis qalebis raodenobaTa Tanafardoba da swored maTTvis moxda viTarebis cvlileba “saqorwino bazarze”. 20 wlamde asakis qalebisa da 25 wlamde asakis mamakacebisaTvis, wina periodTan SedarebiT, “saqorwino bazarma” naklebi cvalebadoba ganicada25.

1989 wels, 1979 welTan SedarebiT, “saqorwino bazari” ganicdis Semdgom cvlilebas, rac imiT gamoixata, rom gauTxovari qalebis 22 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 52; demografiis mokle enciklopediuri leqsikoni. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 245-246 da sxva. 23 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 54. 24 iqve. 25 iqve.

52

raodenoba saSualod erT ucolo mamakacze Semcirda 35 wlamde asakisaTvis (agreTve 45-49 wlis asakis mamakacebisaTvis). igive darCa 35-39 wlis mamakacebisaTvis da gaizarda 40-44 wlis mamakacebisaTvis26.

SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom 1990-iani wlebis saqarTvelos “saqorwino bazris” formirebaze gavlena iqonia intensiurma gare migraciulma procesebma27.

saqme is aris, rom bolo dros Catarebulma gamokvlevebma28 daadastura adre gamoTqmuli is debuleba29, rom gare migraciisas mamakacebSi qalebTan SedarebiT Warbobs daqorwinebulebi, xolo qalebSi _ qorwinebaSi armyofebi. amasTan, qorwinebaSi armyofebis meti wili 39 wlamde asakis migrantebze modis, xolo daqorwinebulebis _ 40 welze ufros migrantebze30.

1999 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT “saqorwino bazari” ar Secvlila 25 wlamde asakis mamakacebisaTvis. imeve dros, ramdenadme gaizarda gauTxovari qalebis raodenoba saSualod erT mamakacze 25-29 wlisa da 45-49 wlis asakSi da qalebis klebas adgili hqonda 30-44 wlis asakis mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi.

saerTo jamSi, saqarTvelos “saqorwino bazarze”, XX saukunis miwuruls, partniori mamakacebis deficiti SeimCneoda da es deficiti ufro didi iyo 1989 welTan SedarebiT.

Cveni gaangariSebiT, 1999 wels, saqarTveloSi, 103 aTas gauTxovar qals ar hyavda asakis Sesaferisi saqorwino partniori dauqorwinebeli mamakaci. sagulisxmoa, rom aRniSnuli deficitis TiTqmis naxevari 25 wlamde asakis gauTxovar qalebze modioda.

diagrama 1.38. registrirebul qorwinebaTa raodenobisa da 15-49 wlis asakis qalebis raodenobis cvlileba saqarTveloSi (aTasi)

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26 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 54. 27 iqve, gv. 56, ix. agreTve g.melaZe, g.wulaZe. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba da demografiuli procesebi. Tbil;isi, 1997, gv. 52. 28 migraciis statistika (SerCeviTi gamokvleva). saqarTvelos stat. sax.departamenti. Tbilisi, 2001. 29 m. beqaia, g. wulaZe, z. goqaZe, g. melaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 56; g.melaZe, g.wulaZe. dasax. naSromi, gv. 52. 30 migraciis statistika (SerCeviTi gamokvleva). saqarTvelos stat. sax. departamenti. Tbilisi, 2001, gv. 16.

53

miuxedavad imisa, rom 1960-dan 1990 wlis CaTvliT saqarTveloSi matulobda qorwinebisunariani ZiriTadi asakebis qalebis raodenoba, qorwinebaTa raodenoba cvalebadobas ganicdida da qorwinebaTa raodenobis klebas mateba mohyveboda, xolo matebas _ kleba.

1990-ian wlebSi qorwinebisunariani asakis qalebis raodenoba saqarTveloSi ramdenadme Semcirda (2000 wels 1990 welTan SedarebiT 19 %-iT), magram imave dros gacilebiT ufro mniSvnelovnad daiklo qorwinebaTa raodenobam (TiTqmis 3-jer). aRniSnulze warmodgenas iZleva diagrama 1.38.

cxrili 1.8. registrirebul qorwinebaTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi

weli yvela

qorwineba

pirveli qorwineba xelaxali qorwineba

xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili

(%) yvela qorwinebas Soris

mamakacebi qalebi mamakacebi qalebi mamakacebi qalebi

1980 50547 48530 49573 2017 974 4.0 1.9 1985 44168 40231 41965 3937 2203 8.9 5.0 1990 36812 32680 34111 4132 2701 11.2 7.3 1991 38070 34663 35835 3407 2235 8.9 5.9 1992 26878 24763 25465 2115 1413 7.9 5.3 1993 24105 22489 23025 1616 1080 6.7 4.5 1994 21907 20752 21135 1155 772 5.3 3.5 1995 21481 20374 20670 1107 811 5.2 3.8 1996 19253 18454 18758 799 495 4.2 2.6 1997 17099 16588 16796 511 303 3.0 1.8 1998 15343 14961 15077 382 266 2.5 1.7 1999 13845 13457 13545 388 300 2.8 2.2 2000 12870 12561 12654 309 216 2.4 1.7

wyaro: sd monacemebiT; g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 25.

20 wlis ganmavlobaSi, 1980 wlidan, qorwinebaTa saerTo raodenoba 4-jer Semcirda. mniSvnelovani kleba ganicada rogorc pirvelma, ise gansakuTrebiT xelaxal qorwinebaTa raodenobam (ix. cxrili 1.8.).

xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili saqarTveliSi mamakacebSi ufro meti iyo qalebTan SedarebiT.

1980 wlidan, 1990 wlis CaTvliT, xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili saqarTveloSi matulobda, xolo 1990 wlidan _ mcirdeboda. 2000 wlisaTvis man miaRwia Zalian dabal mniSvnelobas. magaliTad, ruseTSi, 1999 wels, xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili mamakacebSi 10-jer ufro maRali (27, 5%), xolo qalebSi 12-jer ufro maRali (26, 3%) iyo, vidre imave dros saqarTveloSi31.

xelaxlad daqorwinebul mamakacebsa da qalebs Soris ganqorwinebulebi Warboben qvrivebs.

qorwinebis asaki qorwinebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi damaxasiaTebeli niSania. qorwinebis asaki kulturisa da tradiciebis fonze yalibdeba, Tumca socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebis gavlenas ganicdis.

demografiaSi yvela qorwinebis (pirveli da Semdgomi) asakis garda gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWeba pirveli qorwinebis asaks da masSi qalebis pirveli qorwinebis asaks.

cxrilSi (1.9.) motanilia monacemebi registrirebuli qorwinebebis saSualo asakis Sesaxeb saqarTvelosa (yvela qorwineba, pirveli da

31 Население России 2000. Отв. ред. А.Г. Вишневский. М., 2001, с.29.

54

xelaxali qorwineba mamakacebisa da qalebisaTvis) da SedarebisaTvis evropis zogierTi qveyanisaTvis (qalebis pirveli qorwinebis).

cxrili 1.9. registrirebuli qorwinebis saSualo asaki

weli

yvela qorwineba

pirveli qorwineba

xelaxali qorwineba

qalebis pirveli qorwinebis saSualo asaki zogierT qveyanaSi

mamakacebi qalebi mamakacebi qalebi mamakacebi qalebi SvedeTi dania belgia avstria

1980 30.2 26.7 29.8 26.5 42.0 39.3 26.0 24.6 22.2 23.2 1990 28.8 25.3 27.1 24.1 42.5 40.1 27.5 27.6 24.2 24.9 1991 27.9 24.4 26.5 23.4 42.6 39.7 27.6 27.8 24.4 25.2 1992 27.6 24.1 26.3 23.2 42.7 39.8 28.0 28.0 24.7 25.3 1993 27.7 24.0 26.6 23.3 42.8 39.5 28.1 28.5 24.9 25.6 1994 27.8 24.0 26.9 23.5 43.2 39.0 28.5 28.9 25.2 25.8 1995 28.0 24.1 27.1 23.6 43.5 37.8 28.7 29.0 25.4 26.1 1996 27.9 24.1 27.2 23.7 44.2 39.4 28.9 29.2 26.0 26.3 1997 28.1 24.4 27.8 24.2 39.0 37.2 29.2 29.4 26.0 26.5 1998 28.5 24.5 28.2 24.4 41.8 37.9 29.4 29.5 25.8 26.7 1999 28.8 25.1 28.5 24.8 43.6 38.2 29.8 29.7 26.1 27.0 2000 28.9 24.9 28.5 24.8 44.3 39.7 30.2 29.5 26.2 27.2

wyaro: sd monacemebiT; g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 26. sazRvargareTis qveynebi: Recent demographic developments in Europe 2001. Strasbourg, 2001.

saqarTveloSi, 1980 wels da, arsebuli monacemebidan gamomdinare, 1960-1970 wlebSi, qorwinebis saSualo asaki im droisaTvis sakmaod maRali iyo.

1990 wlisaTvis, wina periodTan SedarebiT, qorwinebis saSualo asakma saqarTveloSi daiklo. 1990-ian wlebSi qorwinebis saSualo asaki, saqarTveloSi, ganicdida cvalebadobas da 1990-iani wlebis bolosaTvis is ufro maRali iyo, vidre 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi, Tumca mainc ufro dabali rCeboda 1960-1980-ian wlebTan SedarebiT.

dasavleTis qveynebSi qorwinebis asakis zrdis pirveli niSnebi 1970-iani wlebis meore naxevridan iCens Tavs, xolo 1980-iani wlebidan am procesma moicva praqtikulad evropisa da sxva ganviTarebuli qveynebis umravlesoba, centraluri da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis gamoklebiT32.

cxrilSi motanil sazRvargareTis qveynebSi, 1980 wels, qalebis pirveli qorwinebis saSualo asaki naklebi iyo, xolo zogierTSi (belgia, avstria) gacilebiT naklebi, vidre imave dros saqarTveloSi. 1990-iani wlebis bolos evropis aRniSnul qveynebSi qorwinebis saSualo asaki ukve meti iyo da Tanac sagrZnoblad meti, vidre saqarTveloSi. evropis yvela am qveyanaSi qorwinebis saSualo asaki 1980-iani wlebidan matulobda, maSin rodesac saqarTveloSi, rogorc ukve iTqva, man jer daiklo, xolo Semdeg garkveul farglebSi meryeobda.

rac Seexeba gansxvavebas mamakacebisa da qalebis qorwinebis saSualo asaks Soris saqarTveloSi 1990-iani wlebis bolos, pirveli qorwinebi-saTvis is 3, 7 wels Seadgenda da 1990-ian wlebSi aRniSnul sxvaobas zrdis tendencia hqonda.

xelaxali qorwinebisas, rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis saSualo asaki gacilebiT ufro maRalia, vidre pirveli qorwinebisas. amasTan,

32 Население России 2000. Отв. ред. А. Г. Вишневский. М., 2001, с. 33.

55

xelaxali qorwinebisas mamakacebis asaki ufro metia qalebisaze, vidre pirveli qorwinebisas.

qorwinebis iseTi zogadi maCvenebelic ki, rogoricaa qorwinebaTa raodenoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze, uCvenebs registrirebul qorwinebaTa sixSiris klebas saqarTveloSi 1980-iani wlebis meore naxevridan, gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovan klebas _ 1992 wlidan (ix. diagrama 1.39.).

diagrama 1.39. registrirebuli qorwinebebi saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis 1000 sulze (SefasebiTi mosaxleobis raodenoba)

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

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2000



mdgomareobaSi ukeT garkvevis mizniT, vnaxoT Tu ra cvlilebebi ganicades registrirebuli qorwinebis asakobrivma koeficientebma 1990-ian wlebSi. vinaidan, yvela qorwinebas Soris Zalian umniSvneloa xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili, yuradRebas pirveli qorwinebis asakobriv koeficientebze SevaCerebT. amasTan, ganvixilavT 35 wlamde asakis qorwinebis asakobriv koeficientebs, vinaidan pirvelad daqorwinebuli qalebis 90 %-mde da mamakacebis 80 %-ze meti 35 wlamde asakze modis.

yvelaze mniSvnelovani kleba ganicada 25 wlamde asakis mamakacebisa da qalebis registrirebulma qorwinebam. 1992 wlidan ganuxrelad klebulobda 20 wlamde asakis da 20-24 wlis asakobrivi jgufebis qalebis qorwinebis sixSire. 20 wlamde asakis mamakacebisaTvis qorwinebis kleba ZiriTadad 1996 wlidan iwyeba, Tumca 20-24 wlis asakis mamakacebis qorwinebis sixSiris kleba, iseve rogorc qalebis SemTxvevaSi, 1992 wlidan daiwyo. 1992 wels momxdari klebis Semdeg, mTeli Semdgomi periodis ganmavlobaSi cvalebadobas ganicdida 25-34 wlis asakis mamakacebisa da qalebis qorwinebis sixSire, Tumca 2000 wlisaTvis maTi qorwinebaTa sixSire mainc ufro naklebi aRmoCnda, vidre 1990-1991 wlebSi iyo.

amdenad, registrirebuli qorwinebis saerTo kleba, saqarTveloSi, 1990-ian wlebSi, ZiriTadad ganapiroba 25 wlamde asakis mamakacebisa da qalebis qorwinebis sixSiris Semcirebam.

20 wlamde asakSi registrirebuli qorwinebis asakobrivi koeficienti mamakacebisaTvis Semcirda 30 %-iT da qalebisaTvis _ 54 %-iT, xolo 20-24 wlis asakSi Sesabamisad 55%-iT da 50%-iT. 45-49 wlis asakobrivi jgufis qorwinebis asakobrivi koeficientebi sakmaod dabalia, xolo Semdeg asakobriv jgufebSi _ kidev ufro dabali. magaliTad, 2000 wels,

56

saqarTveloSi, 45-49 wlis asakobrivi jgufis mamakacebis qorwinebis koeficienti naklebi iyo 20-24 wlis mamakacebis Sesabamis koeficientze 14-jer, xolo qalebis analogiur SemTxvevaSi _ 34-jer.

registrirebuli qorwinebebis asakobrivi koeficientebis aRniSnuli yvela cvlileba saerTo jamSi aisaxa registrirebuli qorwinebis jamobriv koeficientebSi.

diagrama 1.40. registrirebuli qorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientebis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 wlebSi (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

mamakacebi

qalebi


2000 wels, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, registrirebuli qorwinebis jamobrivi koeficienti rogorc yvela, ise pirveli qorwinebisa, daaxloebiT 2-jer naklebi iyo (xelaxali qorwinebis _ 9-10-jer naklebi).

motanili monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom mamakacebisa da qalebis daaxloebiT naxevarze ramdenadme meti, saqarTveloSi, Tavisi cxovrebis manZilze ar Sedis registrirebul qorwinebaSi.

57

1.6. ganqorwineba

gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi, 1960 wlidan 1990 wlis CaTvliT, ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi, garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, matulobda, xolo 1990 wlis Semdeg klebulobda.

ganqorwinebaTa sixSiris zrdaze miuTiTebs iseTi uxeSi maCvenebeli, rogoric aris ganqorwinebis zogadi koeficienti (ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze), romelic 1990 wels 1960 welTan SedarebiT 3, 5-3, 8-jer meti iyo.

diagrama 1.41. ganqorwinebis zogadi koeficientis cvlileba saqarTveloSi

1960-2000 wlebSi (‰)

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6

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1962

1964

1966

1968

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ukve 1960-iani wlebis meore naxevarSi ganqorwineba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze 2, 5-jer meti iyo, vidre 1960-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi. mkveTri zrdis Semdeg, mTeli 7 wlis ganmavlobaSi (1972 wlis CaTvliT), ganqorwinebis sidide mosaxleobis 1000 sulze ar Secvlila da mxolod 1973 wlidan daiwyo misi neli da TandaTanobiTi zrda. 1992 wels moxda misi mkveTri da mniSvnelovani Semcireba. 1993 wels, 1992 welTan SedarebiT, nakleb, magram mainc mniSvnelovan klebas hqonda adgili, ris Semdeg ganqorwineba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze ganagrZobda Semcirebas. igi umniSvnelod mxolod 2000 wlisaTvis gaizarda, Tumca misi done iseTive iyo am dros, rogorc 1965 wels, 35 wlis win. amasTan, misi done Zalian dabalia, rogorc mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi, ise gansakuTrebiT 1990-ian wlebSi.

magaliTad, ruseTSi ukve 1970 wels ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze 3-jer meti iyo, vidre imave dros saqarTveloSi, xolo 1990 wels _ 2, 5-jer meti. 1997 wels ruseTSi ganqorwinebis zogadi koeficienti (3, 8) ukve TiTqmis 8-jer meti iyo, vidre imave dros saqarTveloSi33.

saqarTveloSi, ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba 100 qorwinebaze gaizarda ra 1970-iani wlebisaTvis, praqtikulad ucvlel doneze iyo 1980 wlamde. mis umniSvnelo zrdas hqonda adgili 1985 wlisaTvis, ris Semdegac miaRwia maqsimalur mniSvnelobas 1990 wels. 1990-ian wlebSi cvalebadobas da zogadad klebis tendencias hqonda adgili da mxolod 2000 wels SeimCneoda zrda. 33 Население Роcсии 1998. Отв. ред. А.Г. Вишневский. М., 1999, с. 33. wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 33.

58

sxva qveynebTan SedarebiT ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba 100 qorwinebaze saqarTveloSi didi ar aris. magaliTad, ruseTSi, 1999 wels is 58, 4-is toli da 5-jer ufro maRali iyo, vidre imave dros saqarTveloSi34.

diagrama 1.42. ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba 100 qorwinebaze saqarTveloSi

1960-2000 wlebSi

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960

1970

1980

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000



marTalia, ganqorwinebaTa raodenoba qorwinebasTan mimarTebaSi garkveul warmodgenas iZleva ganqorwinebis doneze, magram misi gamoyeneba ganqorwinebis intensivobis daxasiaTebisaTvis mizanSewonili ar aris, vinaidan mniSvneli ar moicavs yvela im qorwinebas, romelic SeiZleba Sewyvetiliyo. amasTan, aRniSnul maCvenebelze, iseve rogorc ganqorwinebis zogad koeficientze, gavlenas axdens mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqtura da sxva35.

am mdgomareobis Tavidan acilebis mizniT gamoiyeneba ganqorwinebis sxva maCveneblebi, iseTebi, rogoric aris ganqorwinebis asakobrivi koeficientebi, ganqorwinebis jamobrivi koeficienti da sxva, romlebic ganqorwinebis intensivobisa da donis ufro zust maxasiaTeblebs warmoadgenen da romlebsac qvemoT ganvixilavT.

mamakacebis ganqorwinebaTa maqsimaluri sixSire, mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi (1960-2000 ww.), 30-39 wlis asakze modis. qalebis SemTxvevaSi 1960 da 2000 wels msgavsi viTareba SeimCneoda, xolo 1970-1995 wlebSi ganqorwinebis, sxvebTan SedarebiT, maRali intensivoba damaxasiaTebeli iyo 25-34 wlis asakis qalebisaTvis.

1960 wlidan 1980 wlamde gaizarda yvela motanili asakis rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis ganqorwinebis intensivoba.

1990 wlisaTvis, wina periodTan SedarebiT, gaizarda 35-49 wlis asakis mamakacebis, 25-29 da 35-44 wlis asakis qalebis ganqorwinebis koeficientebi, xolo sxva asakebisaTvis ZiriTadad klebas hqonda adgili.

1990 wlebi registrirebul ganqorwinebaTa klebiT aris aRsaniSnavi, rac bunebrivia aisaxa ganqorwinebis asakobriv koeficientebSi.

ukve 1995 wels, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, mniSvnelovnad iyo daklebuli yvela asakSi rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis ganqorwinebis koeficientebi. 2000 wlisaTvis SeiniSneboda Semdgomi kleba da amasTan sakmaod mniSvnelovani. 1995 welTan SedarebiT umniSvnelod gaizarda mxolod 50-54 wlis asakis mamakacebis ganqorwinebis koeficienti da igive sidide

34 Население Роcсии 2000. Отв. ред. А.Г. Вишневский. М., 2001, с. 29, 39 35 demografiis mokle enciklopediuri leqsikoni. Tbilisi, 2000, gv. 98.

59

Seadgina imave asakis qalebis ganqorwinebis koeficientma, Tumca isini gacilebiT naklebi iyvnen, vidre 1990 wlis Sesabamisi maCveneblebi. 50-54 wlis asakis mamakacebis ganqorwinebis koeficienti 2000 wels, 1990 wlis donis mxolod 42 % Seagenda, xolo qalebisa _ 28 %.

1960 wlidan 1990 wlis CaTvliT ganqorwinebis jamobriv koeficients zrdis tendencia axasiaTebda (gansakuTrebiT 1970-ian wlebSi), xolo 1990 wlis Semdeg _ kleba da mxolod umniSvnelo zrda 2000 wels 1999 welTan SedarebiT.

diagrama 1.43. ganqorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientebi saqarTveloSi

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1960

1970

1979

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

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2000

mamakacebi

qalebi



ganqorwinebis donis ufro zusti da adekvaturi maxasiaTebelia ganqorwinebis indeqsi, romelic miiReba ganqorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientisa da qorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientis SefardebiT. misi cvlileba gamosaxulia diagramaze.

diagramaze 1.44. ganqorwinebis indeqsis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 1960-2000 ww.

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

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1970

1979

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

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1996

1997

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2000

mamakacebi

qalebi


rogorc vxedavT, mamakacebisa da qalebis ganqorwinebis done saqarTveloSi maqsimalur sidides 1990 wels aRwevs. 1991-1993 wlebSi ganqorwineba klebulobs, gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovnad 1993 wels. 1994 wels 1993 welTan SedarebiT, rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis ganqorwinebis done ramdenadme gaizarda, Tumca 1995-1998 wlebSi mas isev klebis tendencia axasiaTebda. 1999 wels 1998 welTan SedarebiT ganqorwinebis

60

donem Zalian umniSvnelod moimata, xolo 2000 wels mis Semdgom zrdas hqonda adgili.

amasTan, ganqorwinebis done saqarTveloSi gacilebiT dabali iyo, vidre sxva qveynebSi. magaliTad, ruseTSi analogiuri maCvenebeli 1990-iani wlebis bolos 4,6-jer meti iyo da 0, 6 aRwevda (60 ganqorwineba 100 qorwinebaze)36.

ganqorwinebulTa 65-75 % saqarTveloSi uSviloa. aqedan gamomdinare, SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom saqarTveloSi ganqorwinebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizezi uSvilobaa. ganqorwinebul wyvilebs saSualod 0,4-0, 5 bavSvi hyavdaT (1990-ian wlebSi).

ganqorwinebuli mamakacebisa da qalebis meti wili 25-39 wlis asakisaa, Tumca ganqorwinebuli mamakacebisa da qalebis saSualo asaki ganqorwinebisas 2000 wels Sesabamisad 39 da 36 welze ramdenadme meti iyo.

1970 wels 1960 welTan SedarebiT rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis ganqorwinebis saSualo asaki gaizarda da 1980 wels Semcirebis Semdeg (mamakacebSi metad, xolo qalebSi umniSvnelod) isev moimata 1990 wlisaTvis.

1990-ian wlebSi mamakacebisa da qalebis ganqorwinebis saSualo asaki cvalebadobas ganicdida, Tumca 2000 wels aRniSnuli maCveneblis sidide yvelaze maRali iyo rogorc 1990-ian wlebTan SedarebiT, ise mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi.

daqorwinebulTa mcire nawili qorwinebidan erTi wlis Sesrulebamde ganqorwindeba. amasTan, aseTebis wili, 1990-ian wlebSi, garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, 2000 wlisaTvis Semcirda.

qorwinebidan 5-9 wlis Semdeg ganqorwindeba daqorwinebulTa yvelaze meti wili, Tumca arc Tu ise mcire wili qorwinebidan 10, 15 da 20 da meti wlis Semdegac ganqorwindeba (ix. diagrama 1.45.).

unda aRiniSnos, rom 1990-ian wlebSi, saqarTveloSi, qorwinebis xangrZlivoba ganqorwinebis registraciisas gaizarda, rasac agreTve qorwinebis saSualo xangrZlivoba ganqorwinebisas gviCvenebs (1990 wels _ 9, 8; 2000 wels _ 11, 3).

diagrama 1.45. qorwinebis xangrZlivoba ganqorwinebis registraciisas

saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1 2 3 4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20+

%

1990

1995

2000



36 Население России 2000. Отв. ред. А. Г. Вишневский. М., 2001, с. 38. wyaro: g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 36.

61

unda aRiniSnos, rom faqtobrivi qorwinebis xangrZlivoba ganqorwinebisas naklebi unda iyos, vidre qorwinebis xangrZlivoba ganqorwinebis registraciisas. saqme is aris, rom ganqorwinebis iuridiuli registracia faqtobrivi ganqorwinebidan mxolod garkveuli drois gasvlis Semdeg warmoebs. amasTan, zogierT SemTxvevaSi, faqtobrivi ganqorwinebidan ramdenime wlis Semdegac.

62

1.7. gare migracia

gare migracia demografiuli sistemis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani komponentia da amdenad masze bevrad aris damokidebuli demografiuli sistemis funqcionirebis Taviseburebani da kanonzomierebebi.

gare migraciis intensivobam SeiZleba mniSvnelovanwilad gansazRvros mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi, socialuri, eTnikuri da sxva Semadgenloba. agreTve sagrZnobi gavlena iqonios mosaxleobis saerTo matebaze da demografiul daberebaze, demografiul procesebze da zogadad mosaxleobis aRwarmoebaze.

saqarTvelo im qveynebs miekuTvneba, romlebisTvisac gare migracia mosaxleobis formirebaSi mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs.

saqme is aris, rom saqarTvelos 1960 wlidan gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo axasiaTebs. amasTan, 1973-1996 wlebSi saqarTveloSi oficialuri monacemebiTac ki, romlebic sruli ar aris gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo weliwadSi 10 aTasze meti iyo (1990 wlis garda).

SedarebiT maRali bunebrivi matebis pirobebSi, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldos miuxedavad, warmoebda mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobis mateba.

Sobadobis klebisa da mokvdaobis zrdis pirobebSi, gare migracia, uaryofiTi saldoTi, sul ufro SesamCnev pozicias ikavebda.

mdgomareoba gansakuTrebiT gamwvavda 1990-ian wlebSi, rodesac moxda Sobadobis mniSvnelovani Semcireba da mokvdaobis zrda, xolo amave dros gaizarda gare migraciis intensivoba. dabali bunebrivi mateba veRar axerxebda gare migraciis maRali uaryofiTi saldos kompensirebas, rasac mohyva saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobis kleba. garda amisa gare migraciam gamoiwvia demografiuli daberebis daCqareba da mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi struqturis deformacia, ramac gavlena sxva procesebzec iqonia.

zemoT naCvenebi iyo, rom saqarTveloSi adgili aqvs dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa arasrul registracias da aRniSnuli iyo, rom sxvadasxva mizeziT, sruli ar aris agreTve faqtobriv qorwinebaTa da ganqorwinebaTa mimdinare aRricxva.

specialistebis azriT, aseTive mdgomareobas aqvs adgili gare migraciis SemTxvevaSi, anu srulad ar xdeba gare migraciaSi monawileTa aRricxva.

sabWoTa periodSi, rodesac saxelmwifo sakmaod mkacrad akontrolebda migracias Caweris institutis meSveobiT, gare migraciis monacemebi met-naklebad srulad unda asaxavdnen mis mudmiv formas, anu mudmiv sacxovreblad Camosvla-gasvlas.

igives ver vityviT postsabWoTa periodze, gansakuTrebiT Caweris institutis transformaciisa da misi registraciis axali formiT Secvlis Semdeg.

is, rom gare migraciis Sesaxeb oficialuri monacemebi marTebuli ar iyo, gamomdinareobs TviTon statistikis departamentis monacemebidan, romlebic mocemul sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT gadaangariSebul iqna 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegebidan gamomdinare.

Tumca manamde gadavxedoT gare migraciis Sesaxeb arsebul monacemebs, romlebsac iZleva statistikis departamenti 1960-1988 wlebisaTvis.

63

cxrili 1.10. gare migraciis saldo saqarTvelosaTvis 1960-1988 wlebSi sd monacemebiT (aTasi)

wlebi saldo wlebi saldo wlebi saldo 1960 -16.8 1970 -11.6 1980 -17.0 1961 -10.0 1971 -6.4 1981 -19.3 1962 -5.0 1972 -10.0 1982 -15.0 1963 -7.5 1973 -14.6 1983 -15.9 1964 -7.6 1974 -13.9 1984 -16.9 1965 -10.0 1975 -25.5 1985 -18.8 1966 -10.6 1976 -12.0 1986 -19.8 1967 -14.8 1977 -23.7 1987 -19.9 1968 -15.6 1978 -22.0 1988 -13.3 1969 -8.6 1979 -19.0 sul -421.1

wyaro: saqarTvelos mosaxleoba. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 67.

motanili monacemebiT, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo saqarTvelosaTvis, 1960-1988 wlebSi, 2-jer ufro metia, vidre aqamde gvxvdeboda zogierT publikaciaSi.

gaurkveveli mizezebiT (mizezebi SeiZleba mxolod vivaraudoT) monacemebi gare migraciis Sesaxeb, 1990-1992 wlebSi, romelsac statistikis departamenti bolo dromde iZleoda da romelsac is flobs, mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan.

diagrama 1.46. gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo saqarTvelosaTvis 1989-2000 ww. sd (gadaangariSebamde da gadaangariSebuli) da SefasebiTi monacemebiT

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

aTas

i

sd

gadaangariSebamde

-0.8 -21.4 -20.4 -26.3 -31.5 -20.2 -11.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -1.3

sd

gadaangariSebuli

-13.2 -22.6 -139.3 -140.9-142.6-127.2-123.1 -59.9 -39.2 -36.3 -35.2

SefasebiTi -15.8 -27.5 -156.3 -157.2-156.9 -139.4 -135.0 -65.2 -42.3 -39.5 -38.6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

wyaro: saqarTvelos mosaxleoba. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis

saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 67; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2001. Tbilisi, 2002, p. 153; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 186.

rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentis (oficialuri monacemebiT) gare migraciis Sesaxeb gadaangariSebamde da gadaangariSebuli, mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan. statistikis departamentis gadaangariSebuli monacemebi ufro axlos aris, da SeiZleba iTqvas msgavsia, SefasebiTi monacemebisa.

rac Seexeba gare migraciis Sefasebas, is efuZneba demografiuli sistemis modelSi gare migraciis adgils da saqarTveloSi 1990-2000 wlebSi

64

gare migraciis sakiTxebze Catarebuli SerCeviTi gamokvlevebis Sedegebis analizs.

motanili monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom wliuri cvalebadobebis miuxedavad, saSualod, aTwleulebis mixedviT, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo 1960 wlidan 1990 wlamde, absoluturi raodenobis TvalsazrisiT, ganuxrelad matulobda (statistikis departamentis monacemebiT).

calkeul wlebSi gare migraciis intensivobis sakmao cvalebadobas hqonda adgili, gansakuTrebiT 1960-1979 wlebSi, Tumca gare migraciis intensivoba ar iyo 1, 2‰-ze naklebi da 5, 3‰-ze meti. SedarebiT naklebi cvalebadobiT gamoirCeoda 1980-iani wlebi, rodesac gare migraciis intensivoba meryeobda 2, 6 _ 3, 9 ‰-es Soris. saSualod, 1960 wlidan, aTwleulebis mixedviT, saqarTveloSi gare migraciis intensivoba matulobda.

amdenad, gare migraciis zogad tendencias saqarTveloSi 1960-1989 wlebSi warmoadgenda gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo da gare migraciis intensivobis zrda.

1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi momxdari cnobili politikuri, socialur-ekonomikuri da sazogadoebrivi cvlilebebi ar SeiZleba ar asaxuliyo gare migraciaSi da aisaxa kidec.

samwuxarod, aRniSnul periodSi, 1980-ian wlebTan SedarebiT, cnobil politikur da socialur-ekonomikur movlenebs mohyva demografiuli SemTxvevebisa da migraciis statistikuri aRricxvis gauareseba.

albaT, amis Sedegi iyo is, rom oficialuri, statistikis departamentis monacemebis garda, gaCnda sxvadasxva Sefaseba gare migraciis Sesaxeb37 (iseve rogorc sxva demografiuli SemTxvevebisas).

gare migraciis Sesaxeb sxvadasxva avtoris Sefaseba gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan, magram saerTo maT Soris is aris, rom aRniSnuli Sefasebebi gare migraciis gacilebiT ufro did masStabs gulisxmobs, vidre es oficialuri monacemebidan (gadaangariSebamde) gamomdinareobs.

droTa ganmavlobaSi, axali monacemebisa, Tu informaciis Suqze, calkeuli avtoris Sefaseba gare migraciis Sesaxeb icvleboda da ixveweboda.

amdenad, saqarTvelosaTvis, bolo 40 wlis ganmavlobaSi, 1960-2000 wlebis periodSi, damaxasiaTebeli iyo gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo. amasTan, 1960-1989 wlebis statistikis departamentis dazustebuli monacemebidan da 1990-2000 wlebis Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, rom saSualod, aTwleulebis mixedviT gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldos rogorc absoluturi sidide, ise intensivoba matulobda.

SefasebiTi monacemebiT 1960-2000 wlebis periodSi, gare migraciis Sedegad, saqarTvelos mosaxleobas daaklda 1404 aTasze meti adamiani.

gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani iyo saqarTvelosaTvis 1990-iani wlebi, rodesac sxvadasxva SefasebiTi monacemiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobam gare migraciis Sedegad gacilebiT meti danaklisi ganicada, vidre wina 30-wliani periodis ganmavlobaSi.

37 T. guguSvili. saqarTvelos gare migraciul-demografiuli problemebi. Tbilisi, 1998; g. melaZe, g. wulaZe. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba da demografiuli procesebi. Tbilisi, 1997; r. gaCeCilaZe. mosaxleobis migracia saqarTveloSi da misi socialur-politikuri Sedegebi. Tbilisi, 1997 da sxva.

65

SefasebiTi monacemebiT, 1990-2000 wlebis periodSi saqarTvelom, gare migraciis meSveobiT, 1989 wlis mosaxleobis raodenobis 19%-mde danaklisi ganicada, anu TiTqmis yoveli mexuTe adamiani wavida qveynidan.

statistikis departamentis monacemebiT, 1995-2000 wlebis periodSi, saqarTvelosa da sxva qveynebs Soris, uaryofiTi saldos 69, 1% ruseTze modioda. 1995-1996 wlebSi uaryofiTi saldo saqarTvelosaTvis ruseTTan, mTeli gare migraciis 72% Seadgenda. Semdeg wlebSi, uaryofiTi saldo ruseTTan mniSvnelovnad klebulobs da 1997-2000 wlebis periodisaTvis, saSualod, mxolod 36, 7% Seadgens (sd monacemebiT).

uaryofiTi saldos sididiT saqarTvelosa da sxva qveynebs Soris gamoirCeva israeli, saberZneTi, ukraina, somxeTi da azerbaijani, Tumca ruseTTan SedarebiT maTi saldos sidide sakmaod dabalia.

aRweraTa Soris periodSi (1989-2001) gare migraciis intensivoba mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi sxvadasxva erovnebisaTvis.

saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi erovnebebisaTvis gare migraciis saldo, aRweraTa Soris periodSi, gaangariSebul iqna iribi meTodis gamoyenebiT. kerZod, gaTvaliswinebul iqna 1989 da 2002 wlebis aRweriT dadgenili saqarTvelos mosaxleobis erovnuli Semadgenloba da aRweraTaSoris periodSi maTi koreqtirebuli bunebrivi mateba38.

rogorc vxedavT yvelaze maRali gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo damaxasiaTebeli iyo qarTvelebisaTvis, Semdeg rusebis, osebisa da somxebisaTvis. Tumca sxva erovnebebisaTvisac gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo sakmaod sagrZnobi iyo.

marTalia, absoluturi sididiT gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo yvelaze didi qarTvelebisaTvis iyo, magram mTel saldoSi mas mxolod 29, 5% ekava.

cxrili 1.11. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis gare migraciis saldos erovnuli Semadgenloba 1989-2001 wlebSi

saldo (aTasi)

saldo %

saldos % 1989 w. mosaxleobasTan

qarTveli -272.5 29.5 -7.2

rusi -184.8 19.9 -54.2

osi -124.9 13.5 -76.1

somexi -115.0 12.4 -26.3

berZeni -70.1 7.5 -69.9

azerbaijaneli -53.2 5.7 -17.3

ukraineli -43.9 4.7 -83.8

ebraeli -20.7 2.2 -84.1

qurTi -16.2 1.7 -48.6

belorusi -8.2 0.9 -95.3

sxvebi -19.0 2.0 -13.2

sul -928.5 100.0 -17.2

wyaro: a. vadaWkoria. gare migraciuli procesebi saqarTveloSi (1989-2002 wlebi). disertacia ekonomikur mecnierebaTa kandidatis samecniero xarisxis mosapoveblad. Tbilisi, 2004.

38 a. vadaWkoria. gare migraciuli procesebi saqarTveloSi (1989-2002 wlebi). disertacia ekonomikur mecnierebaTa kandidatis samecniero xarisxis mosapoveblad. Tbilisi, 2004, gv. 54-57.

66

unda aRiniSnos, rom saldos absoluturi mniSvneloba Sesabamisi erovnebis mosaxleobis raodenobasTan SedarebiT ar axasiaTebs gare migraciis intensivobas. gare migraciis saldos intensivobis zusti suraTis dasadgenad, mocemul SemTxvevaSi ufro gamosadegia gare migraciis saldos Sefardeba Sesabamisi erovnebis mosaxleobis raodenobasTan procentul gamosaxulebaSi.

aseTi SefardebiTi maCveneblidan gamomdinareobs, rom aRweraTaSoris periodSi, gare migraciis saldos intensivobiT gamoirCeodnen belorusebi, ebraelebi da ukrainelebi.

saqarTveloSi mcxovreb sxva erovnebebs Soris SedarebiT gare migraciis maRali intensivoba axasiaTebdaT osebs, berZnebsa da rusebs. xolo gare migraciis saldos fardobiTi dabali sidide _ azerbaijanelebsa da somxebs da yvelaze dabali – qarTvelebs. maCvenebeli marTalia aseve uaryofiTi iyo, Tumca yvelaze dabali.

ZiriTadad swored aseTi viTarebis Sedegad gaizarda saqarTvelos mosaxleobaSi qarTvelebis wili 70%-dan (1989 w.) 84%-mde (2002 w.).

rac Seexeba konkretul gamokvlevebs, romlebic miznad isaxavda gare migraciis sakiTxebis Seswavlas, sakmaod raodenobis miuxedavad, isini ZiriTadad lokalur xasiaTs atarebda da zogjer arareprezentatulic iyo. amitom qvemoT mxolod im gamokvlevaTa Sedegebs movitanT, romlebic mTel qveyanas moicavda da amasTan reprezentatuli iyo. aseTi saxis gamokvlevebi ZiriTadad statistikis departamentis mierve iyo Sesrulebuli. maT Soris aRsaniSnavia ekonomikuri barometris gamokvlevebi, sadac, sxva problemebTan erTad, asaxul iqna gare migraciis sakiTxebi.

ekonomikuri barometris farglebSi, 1998 wlis dekembridan 2001 wlis oqtombris CaTvliT, gare migraciis Sesaxeb Catarebuli iyo 10 gamokvleva. TiToeuli gamokvlevisas gamokiTxuli iqna 1500 respondenti.

qvemoT mokled ganvixilavT ekonomikuri barometris gamokvlevis Sedegebs gare migraciis sakiTxebze (ix. cxrili 1.12).

gamokvlevis Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rom sazRvargareT myof migrantTa 80%-ze ramdenadme meti 20-24 wlis asakisaa. migrantTa 50%-ze meti saSualo da teqnikuri ganaTlebis mqonea. migrantTa daaxloebiT 1/3 umaRlesi ganaTlebis mqonea da mxolod mcire raodenobaa arasruli saSualo ganaTlebiT.

migrantTa umravlesoba (2/3) ruseTSi imyofeba. daaxloebiT 13% - saberZneTSi, aSS-sa da germaniaSi – 7%-mde. aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTSi, saberZneTSi, aSS-sa da germaniaSi myofTa wili ukanaskneli wlebis ganmavlobaSi mcirdeba (gansakuTrebiT aSS da germaniaSi).

migrantTa 2/3-ze meti sazRvargareT 1 welze meti drois ganmavlobaSi imyofeba.

sazRvargareT myofTagan 2/3 erovnebiT qarTvelia. sazRvargareT wasvlis intensivoba (sazRvargareT myofTa raodenobis Sefardeba saqarTveloSi Sesabamis mosaxleobis raodenobasaTan) araqarTvelebSi qarTvelebTan SedarebiT 1, 6-jer maRalia.

sazRvargareT myofTa didi umravlesoba (70%-ze meti) samuSaod aris wasuli da maTi daaxloebiT 60-70% materialurad exmareba saqarTveloSi darCenil ojaxis wevrebs.

uaxloes 6 TveSi saqarTvelodan sazRvargareT apirebs wasvlas daaxloebiT 42-44 aTasi. maTgan 75%-mde 20-49 wlis asakisaa.

67

cxrili 1.12. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis gare migracia ekonomikuri barometris gamokvlevebis Sedegebis mixedviT (saSualod weliwadSi)

1999 2000 sazRvargareT myofTa: asaki (%) 20 wlamde 3.8 5.8 20-49 85.4 80.2 50 da ufrosi 10.8 14.0 ganaTleba (%) arasruli saSualo 4.8 4.5 saSualo da teqnikuri 59.7 54.1 umaRlesi 35.5 41.4 qveyana (%) ruseTi 66.9 66.4 saberZneTi 13.4 13.2 aSS an germania 11.2 8.1 sxva 8.5 12.3 sazRvargareT yofnis xangrZlivoba (%) eqvs Tvemde 15.7 12.2 6 Tvidan 1 wlamde 11.7 12.0 1 welze meti 72.6 75.8 sazRvargareT wasvlis prognozebi: uaxloes 6 TveSi apirebs sazRvargareT wasvlas sul (aTasi) 43.3 43.9 asaki (%) 20 wlamde 12.1 10.7 20-49 72.1 74.0 50 da ufrosi 15.8 15.3 dabrunebis vada (%) eqvs Tvemde 41.0 27.7 6 Tvidan 1 wlamde 29.8 29.0 1 welze meti 29.2 43.3 qveyana (%) ruseTi 50.5 47.4 saberZneTi 24.7 22.2 aSS an germania 8.0 4.8 sxva 24.8 25.6 wasvlis survili aqvs (aTasi) 759.3 797.7*

*2000 wlis aprili wyaro: momxmarebelTa qcevis barometri. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo

departamenti. Tbilisi, 2000., gv. 33-41; momxmarebelTa qcevis barometri. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2001, gv. 25-32.

68

wamsvlelTa Soris qarTvelTa wili, wina wlebisgan gansxvavebiT, dauaxlovda erovnuli niSniT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis dRevandel struqturas, anu gaizarda emigrant qarTvelTa intensivoba.

bolo wlebSi wamsvlelTa 40% apirebs 1 welze meti xniT datovos saqarTvelo, xolo maT Soris daaxloebiT naxevari mudmiv sacxovreblad apirebs wasvlas.

69

2. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba 2001-2006 wlebSi

2.1. mosaxleoba

rodesac 2000-ian wlebze vlaparakobT, pirvel rigSi aRsaniSnavia 2002 wels (17 ianvris mdgomareobiT) Catarebuli saqarTvelos mosaxleobis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRwera.

samwuxarod, bolo dromde, ar gagvaCnia aRniSnuli aRweris Sedegebis srulfasovani analizi, gansakuTrebiT mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb. gaanalizebulia aRniSnuli aRweris calkeuli komponentebi, magaliTad, gare migracia39.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRweris Sedegebi specialistebis mier araerTgvarovnad aris Sefasebuli. zogierT SemTxvevaSi mis mimarT kritikuli Sefasebebi gamoiTqmeba, Tumca es SeniSvnebi ufro kerZo saubris, vidre mecnieruli publikaciebis saxiT warmogvidgeba.

ra udevs safuZvlad 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRwerisadmi kritikul damokidebulebas?

upirveles yovlisa aRniSnuli kritikuli damokidebuleba efuZneba e.w. “forma em _ saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 w. mosaxleobis pirveli sayovelTao aRwera, emigrantTa saaRwero furcels”, romelmac praqtikulad ver, an cudad “imuSava”. magaliTad, aRniSnuli saaRwero furclis Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rom emigrantebis raodenoba saqarTvelodan Seadgens 113, 7 aTass40. imave dros statistikis departamentis gaangariSebiT gare migraciis uaryofiTma saldom saqarTvelosaTvis aRweraTaSoris periodSi (1989-2001 ww.) daaxloebiT 930 aTasi Seadgina41.

is, rom mosaxleobis aRwera srulad ver asaxavda emigraciis masStabs, Tundac iqidan gamomdinareobs, rom “mocemuli informacia emigrantebis Sesaxeb miRebulia mosaxleobis aRweris periodSi saqarTveloSi myofi maTi ojaxis wevrebisagan. saqarTvelodan migrirebulTa 78, 4 procentis Sinameurneobebis wevrTa gancxadebiT isini sazRvargareT ZiriTadad ekonomikuri pirobebis gasaumjobeseblad wavidnen ... emigrirebulTa 81, 1 procenti saqarTvelos moqalaqed rCeba ...”42.

2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris sxva Sedegebs Tavi rom davaneboT, ukve aRniSnulic eWvs iwvevs.

2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rom mudmivi mosaxleobis raodenoba 4371, 5 aTasis, xolo faqtobrivi mosaxleobis raodenoba _ 4355, 7 aTasis toli iyo43, anu sxvaoba maT Soris Seadgenda 15, 8 aTass.

gare migraciis saldo statistikis departamentis monacemebiT, Tu 930 aTasamde iyo da migrantebis ZiriTadi nawili ekonomikuri pirobebis gamo 39 g. wulaZe. emigracia saqarTvelodan 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebis mixedviT. CRRC. Tbilisi, 2005. 40 saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRweris masalebi. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. 41 saqarTvelos mosaxleoba. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 67. 42 saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli erovnuli sayovelTao aRweris Sedegebi. Tbilisi, 2004, t. III, naw. 2. gv. 4. 43 saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRweris ZiriTadi Sedegebi. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2004, gv. 10.

70

SromiT emigraciaSi imyofeboda da amasTan maTi 81, 1% saqarTvelos moqalaqeobas inarCunebda, maSin sxvaoba mudmiv da faqtobriv mosaxleobas Soris 15, 8 aTasze gacilebiT meti unda iyos.

warmodgenili naSromis mocemuli nawili exeba saqarTvelos mosaxleobas. amdenad, gare migraciasTan dakavSirebul sakiTxebs ufro detalurad Sesabamis nawilSi ganvixilavT.

gare migraciis didi masStabis gamo sirTules warmoadgens 1989 da 2002 wlebis mosaxleobis aRwerebis Sedegebis Sedareba asakobriv-sqesobriv WrilSi. amitom, qvemoT Sedarebuli iqneba 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegebi mudmivi da faqtobrivi mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb.

pirvel rigSi yuradRebas iqcevs is, rom mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegebidan gamomdinare 0-4 asakobriv jgufSi faqtobrivi mosaxleoba aRemateba mudmivs (645 adamianiT). maTgan gansakuTrebiT didi raodenoba modis 1 wlamde asakis bavSvebze (342). aRniSnuls mxolod erTi axsna SeiZleba hqondes _ saqarTveloSi SemohyavdaT 0-4 wlis asakis bavSvebi44.

aseve, 15-19, 20 da 21 wlis asakSi mudmivi mosaxleoba naklebia faqtobrivze, rasac igive axsna SeiZleba movunaxoT _ aRniSnuli asakis mosaxleoba saqarTveloSi Camovida (sul 1594). marTalia Zalian mcire raodenobiT, magram mudmivi mosaxleoba naklebi iyo faqtobrivze 100 da ufrosi asakis SemTxvevaSic (3 adamiani).

Sromisunarian asakSi, mTlianobaSi, mudmivi mosaxleoba aRemateba faqtobrivs 12, 3 aTasiT. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis gare migraciis arsebuli didi intensivobis SemTxvevaSi, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldos pirobebSi, motanili sidide Zalian mcired gamoiyureba da gacilebiT didi unda iyos.

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis dinamikas 2001-2007 wlebSi, masze warmodgenas iZleva diagrama 2.1.

diagrama 2.1. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis cvlileba 2001-2007 ww. (1 ianvris mdgomareobiT)

3400360038004000420044004600

aTas

i

mudmivi _ sd

monacemebiT

4401.4 4371.5 4342.6 4315.2 4321.5 4401.3 4394.7

faqtobrivi _

Sefaseba

4034.4 4001.0 3965.8 3930.9 3899.3 3869.3 3839.2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2005. UNFPA.

Tbilisi, 2006, p. 17.

44 aqamde cnobili iyo da amas masobrivi informaciis saSualebebic farTod aSuqebdnen, rom saqarTvelodan sazRvargareT gahyavT dabali asakis bavSvebi.

71

SefasebiTi monacemebiT gaangariSebis meTodika mxolod faqtobrivi mosaxleobis raodenobis gansazRvris SesaZleblobas iZleva.

motanili diagramidan Cans, rom 2002 wels, SefasebiTi mosaxleobis faqtobrivi raodenoba naklebi iyo mudmivze 370, 5 aTasiT. 2003-2007 wlebSi aRniSnuli sxvaoba izrdeboda da 2007 wlisaTvis miaRwia 555, 5 aTass.

rac Seexeba mosaxleobis cvlilebas 2001-2007 wlebSi, statistikis departamentis monacemebiT, saqarTvelos mudmivi mosaxleobis raodenoba Semcirda 6, 7 aTasiT. amasTan, mosaxleobis raodenoba izrdeboda 2005 da gansakuTrebiT 2006 wlebSi, ZiriTadad gare migraciis xarjze (saldo dadebiTi iyo). SefasebiTi monacemebiT, saqarTvelos faqtobrivi mosaxleoba 2001-2007 wlebSi klebulobda da 2007 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT 195, 2 aTasiT naklebi iyo.

2001-2006 wlebSi mosaxleobis formirebis ori komponentidan ZiriTadad isev gare migracia gvevlineba.

diagrama 2.2. mosaxleobis saerTo matebis (klebis) komponentebi saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww., aTasobiT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

aTas

i

bunebrivi mateba 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 -0.3 1.3

gare migracia -35.2 -35.9 -35.5 -31.5 -30.4 -28.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 41, 205.

mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenloba ganicdida garkveul cvalebadobas. wina periodTan SedarebiT, 2001-2007 wlebSi, ramdenadme Semcirda 15 wlamde asakis mosaxleobis wili da gaizarda 65 da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wili, anu demografiulma daberebam kidev ufro gamokveTili saxe miiRo.

diagrama 2.3. demografiuli daberebis procesi saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5

2001200220032004200520062007

%


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 35.

72

2.2. Sobadoba

samwuxarod XXI saukunis dasawyisSi saqarTveloSi dabadebaTa registraciis TvalsazrisiT arasaxarbielo mdgomareoba iyo. kerZod, 2001-2006 wlebSi dabadebaTa arasruli aRricxva SeimCneoda, romelic zogierT wels 10%-s aRwevda. am TvalsazrisiT SedarebiT ukeTesi mocva iyo 2004 wels.

2001-2006 wlebSi, saqarTveloSi fertiluri asakis qalebis raodenoba sul mcirdeboda. miuxedavad amisa, cocxlad dabadebulTa raodenoba xan klebulobda, xan ki matulobda.

diagrama 2.4. cocxlad dabadebulTa da 15-49 wlis asakis qalebis raodenoba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww., aTasi (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

48

49

50

51

52

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

cocxl

ad d

abad

ebul

ebi

970

980

990

1000

1010

1020

1030

1040

15-49

wl

is a

sak

is q

aleb

i

cocxlad dabadebulebi

15-49 wlis qalebi

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 25-26, 41.

rac Seexeba cocxlad dabadebulTa raodenobas mosaxleobis 1000 sulze (Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti), 2001-2006 wlebSi igi umniSvnelo cvlilebas ganicdida.

diagrama 2.5. Sobadobis zogadi koeficientis dinamika saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

‰

sd

Sefaseba


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 41.

73

rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiTi monacemebi, 2001-2006 wlebSi trendis TvalsazrisiT msgavsia. gansxvaveba is aris, rom SefasebiTi monacemebiT Sobadoba meti iyo, vidre statistikis departamentis monacemebiT.

diagrama 2.6. saerTo Sobadobis koulis indeqsis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

0.125

0.130

0.135

0.140

0.145

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 wyaro: gaangariSebulia _ G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of

Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 25-26 da demografiis mokle enciklopediuri leqsikoni. Semdgeneli g. wulaZe. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 101, 104. _ safuZvelze.

rogorc vxedavT, koulis saerTo Sobadobis indeqsi ZiriTadad matebis TvalsazrisiT icvleboda, rac imaze migvaniSnebs, rom saqarTveloSi izrdeboda potenciuri Sobadobis realizaciis xarisxi.

Sobadobis faqtobrivad arsebuli asakobrivi koeficientebisa da koulis saerTo Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebis Sefardeba, SesaZleblobas iZleva gavarkvioT, Tu romeli asakobrivi jgufis qalebi axdenen bavSvTa Sobis potencialis realizacias. amave dros, sxvadasxva periodisaTvis, miRebuli maCveneblebis Sedareba bavSvTa Sobis potencialis realizaciis xarisxis (donis) cvlilebasac gviCvenebs45.

diagrama 2.7. sxvadasxva asakis qalebis bavSvTa Sobis potencialis gamoyenebis xarisxi (%) saqarTveloSi koulis asakobrivi koeficientebidan gamomdinare 2001-2006 ww.

0

5

10

15

20

25

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

%

20002006

wyaro: gaangariSebulia _ G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of

Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 25-26 da demografiis mokle enciklopediuri leqsikoni. Semdgeneli g. wulaZe. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 101, 104. _ safuZvelze.

45 g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 48; A. Sulaberidze, N. Gerzmava. Importance of the Family Planning and Reproductive Behaviour Issues in the Transition Period. Bulletin of the Georgian Academy of Sciences. V. 165, #2, 2002, p. 436.

74

2000 welTan SedarebiT sxvadasxva zomiT da amasTan umniSvnelod, 2006 wels, gaizarda 15-39 wlis asakis qalebis bavSvTa Sobis realizaciis xarisxi. aRniSnuli mateba, sxva asakobriv jgufebTan SedarebiT, ufro mniSvnelovani iyo 25-29 wlis asakis qalebSi.

1992-1993 wlebSi Sobadobis mkveTri Semcirebis Semdeg, Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti 2001-2006 wlebSi ganicdida garkveul cvalebadobas.

diagrama 2.8. Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

sd 1.444 1.417 1.414 1.512 1.391 1.405

Sefaseba 1.678 1.661 1.666 1.775 1.722 1.740

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 43-44.

rogorc vxedavT, statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiTi monacemebidan gamomdinare, Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis trendi msgavs tendenciebs imeorebs. gansxvaveba is aris, rom SefasebiTi monacemebiT Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti metia, vidre statistikis departamentis monacemebiT. aRniSnuli sxvaoba ZiriTadad gamomdinareobs statistikis departamentis SemTxvevaSi cocxlad dabadebulTa arasruli aRricxvisa da 15-49 wlis asakis qalebis gadametebiT warmodgenidan. miuxedavad amisa, orive SemTxvevaSi Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti im doneze naklebia, romelic mosaxleobis martiv aRwarmoebas uzrunvelyofs (2, 1).

diagrama 2.9. Svilianobis struqturuli koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 2000-2006 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

koeficienti 1.69 1.67 1.67 1.55 1.59 1.57 1.55

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 45.

75

2000-2006 wlebSi cocxlad dabadebulebSi ZiriTadad izrdeboda pirveli rigiTobis bavSvebis wili. gansaxilvel periodSi aRniSnuli cvlilebebi aisaxa rigiTobis saSualo maCvenebelSi (Svilianobis struqturuli koeficienti), romelic aseve mianiSnebs Sobadobis reJimis TandaTanobiT cvlilebaze.

2000-ian wlebSi saqarTveloze dabali Sobadobis done mravali qveynisaTvis iyo damaxasiaTebeli. magaliTisaTvis qvemoT motanilia saqarTvelosa da zogierTi sxva qveynis Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientebi. amasTan, saqarTvelosaTvis Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti motanilia SefasebiTi monacemebidan gamomdinare.

saqme isaa, rom SefasebiTi monacemebi rogorc Sobadobis specialuri koeficientis, ise Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientis sididis Sesaxeb, msgavsia 2005 wels saqarTveloSi Catarebuli farTomasStabiani qalebis reproduqciuli gamokvlevis Sedegad miRebuli Sesabamisi maCveneblebisa46.

diagrama 2.10. Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficientebi saqarTvelosa da dabali Sobadobis zogierT qveyanaSi

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

2003 2004 2005 2006

saqarTvelo

ruseTi

ukraina

estoneTi

bulgareTi

germania

wyaro: 2003 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2003; 2004 World

Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2004; 2005 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2005; 2006 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2006.

motanilma iseTi STabeWdileba ar unda Segviqmnas, TiTqos ar arsebobs qveynebi, sadac Sobadobis done metia da Tanac gacilebiT meti, vidre saqarTveloSi. 2006 wels, msoflioSi, saSualod Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti 2, 7-is toli iyo, xolo rig qveynebSi 7-s aRemateboda (angola, mali, nigeri da sxva).

dedis asaki bavSvebis gaCenisas 2004 wels saSualod 25, 7 weli iyo, rac 2006 wlisaTvis ramdenadme Semcirda da 25, 4 weli Seadgina.

rac Seexeba dedis saSualo asaks gaCenili bavSvebis rigiTobis mixedviT, mocemulze warmodgenas iZleva motanili diagrama (2.11.).

pirveli rigiTobis bavSvs qalebi saSualod aCendnen 24 wlis asakSi, meores _ 26 wlis asakSi da a. S., xolo mexuTesa da Semdgomi rigiTobis bavSvs 34 wlis asakSi.

motanili diagramidan rTuli ar aris intergenetikuri intervalebis gaangariSeba.

46 Reproductive Health Survey Georgia, 2005. Final Report. Editors: F. Serbanescu, P. Imnadze, Z. Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007. p. 35.

76

diagrama 2.11. dedis saSualo asaki bavSvis gaCenisas bavSvis rigiTobis mixedviT 2004 da 2006 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

202224262830323436

asaki

2004 24.1 26.9 29.4 31.0 34.2

2006 24.0 26.3 29.5 31.3 33.9

I II III IV V+

wyaro: statistikis departamentis masalebi.

rogorc vxedavT, mokle periodis ganmavlobaSic intergenetikuri intervalebi ganicdida garkveul cvalebadobas (ix. diagrama 2.12.). intergenetikur intervalebs Soris sxvaoba 2006 wels 2004 welTan SedarebiT sakmaod didi iyo pirvelsa da meore, meoresa da mesame, meoTxesa da mexuTe bavSvebis SemTxvevaSi. 2006 wels 2004 welTan SedarebiT intergenetikuri intervali Semcirda pirvelsa da meore da meoTxesa da mexuTe rigiTobis bavSvebisaTvis, xolo gaizarda meoresa da mesame rigiTobis bavSvebisaTvis. imave dros umniSvnelo cvlilebas hqonda adgili mesamesa da meoTxe rigiTobis bavSvebisaTvis.

diagrama 2.12. intergenetikuri intervalebi saqarTveloSi 2004 da 2006 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

2.82.5

1.6

3.2

2.3

3.3

1.7

2.6

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

I_II II_III III_IV IV_V

cocxlad dabadebulebi rigiTobis mixedviT

dro (wl

ebSi)

2004

2006

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier statistikis departamentis masalebis safuZvelze.

2000-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi matebas ganagrZobs dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobaSi registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe dabadebuli bavSvebis wili, romelmac 2006 wels 54%-s gadaaWarba (ix. diagrama 2.13). amasTan, maTi umetesoba mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT iyo registrirebuli, xolo mcire wili _ dedis gancxadebiT, Tumca es ukanaskneli 2003-2004 wlebSi ramdenadme gaizarda wina periodTan SedarebiT da 2005 wlidan isev Semcirda (ix. diagrama 2.14).

77

diagrama 2.13. dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobaSi qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili (%) saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

44.445.9 44.6

47.749.7

54.4

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

%


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 50.

diagrama 2.14. dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobaSi qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulTa wili (%) mSobelTa erToblivi da dedis gancxadebis mixedviT saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

39.9 41.336.7 37.9

42.848.8

4.5 4.6 6.0 8.0 6.1 5.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

%

mSobelTa gancxadebiT dedis gancxadebiT

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, p. 50.

diagrama 2.15. dabadebulTa saerTo raodenobaSi qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis wili (%) dedis asakis mixedviT saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. (sd monacemebiT)

20

30

40

50

60

70

-20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+asaki

%

2000 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 52-53.

78

garkveuli gansxvaveba SeimCneva registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebis wilebs Soris dedis asakis mixedviT (ix. diagrama 2.15).

2006 wels 2000 welTan SedarebiT gaizarda qorwinebis gareSe dabadebuli bavSvebis wili yvela asakobriv jgufSi. amasTan, rogorc 2000, ise 2006 wels qorwinebis gareSe dabadebuli bavSvebis yvelaze maRali wili modis 25 wlamde asakis qalebze.

sayuradReboa, rom 20 welze ufrosi asakis dedaTa Soris registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe dabadebul bavSvTa wili 2000 welTan SedarebiT 2006 wels gaormagebulia.

2000 wlisaTvis qorwinebiTi da qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba praqtikulad erTmaneTs gautolda. ukve 2002 wlisaTvis qorwinebiTi Sobadoba naklebi iyo, vidre qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba. 2006 wlisaTvis qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobam mniSvnelovnad gadaaWarba qorwinebiT Sobadobas.

diagrama 2.16. qorwinebiTi da qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobis koeficientebi saqarTveloSi (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier _ saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli

erovnuli sayovelTao aRweris Sedegebi. t. I. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 136; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 21, 26, 41, 50.

2002 wlis da gansakuTrebiT 2006 wlis zemoT aRwerili mdgomareoba arnaxul movlenas warmoadgens. Cveulebriv, normalur movlenad iTvleba mdgomareoba, rodesac qorwinebiTi Sobadoba aRemateba qorwinebis gareSe Sobadobas.

37.6 37.8

49.4

70.1

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002 2006

‰

qorwinebiTi qorwinebis gareSe

79

2.3. sqesobrivi urTierToba, xelovnuri aborti da kontracepcia

informacias ojaxis dagegmvis calkeuli mxareebis, legaluri abortebis, kontracepciis gavrcelebis Sesaxeb jandacvis saministros statistika srulad ver asaxavs faqtobriv mdgomareobas da amdenad, sakmaod arasrulia da bundovan warmodgenas iZleva kontracepciisa da abortebis gavrcelebis realur viTarebaze47.

ufro sando informaciis mopovebisaTvis saWiroa am mimarTulebiT farTomasStabiani gamokvlevebis Catareba, romelic iSviaTobas warmoadgens, Tumca am saxis gamokvlevebi Catarebul iqna rogorc 1990-ian wlebSi48, ise 2000-ian wlebSi49 da Cven SesaZlebloba gvaqvs visargebloT maTi SedegebiT.

rac Seexeba sqesobriv gamocdilebas, mis Sesaxeb garkveuli informaciis mopoveba SesaZlebelia mxolod specialuri gamokvlevebis safuZvelze.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli aseTi saxis gamokvlevebi Catarebul iqna 1999 da 2005 wlebSi. qvemoT motanili gvaqvs saqarTveloSi 2005 wels Catarebuli gamokvlevebis Sedegebi, romelic sqesobrivi gamocdilebis sakiTxebsac asaxavs.

saqarTveloSi sami axalgazrda qalidan (25 wlamde asakis) mxolod erTma aRniSna sqesobrivi gamocdilebis qona; maTgan mxolod 10%-ma aRniSna sqesobrivi cxovrebis dawyeba qorwinebamde50.

saSualod, pirveli sqesobrivi urTierTobis asaki mamakacebisaTvis 17, 5 weli aRmoCnda. amave dros, maTi partniori qalebi odnav ufrosebi iyvnen da maTi asaki saSualod 17, 7 weli iyo51.

bolo erTi Tvis ganmavlobaSi mamakacebis 70%-s hqonda sqesobrivi urTierToba. sqesobrivi urTierTobis sixSire saSualod kviraSi 2, 2 iyo. amasTan, qorwinebaSi myofi mamakacebis sqesobrivi urTierTobis sixSire (2, 3) aRemateba dauqorwinebeli mamakacebis Sesabamis maCvenebels (1, 8)52. aRsaniSnavia, rom imave dros 15-24 wlis asakis gaTxovili qalebis mxolod 59, 2% ambobs, rom hqonia sqesobrivi urTierToba bolo erTi Tvis ganmavlobaSi. aRniSnuli asakis rogorc gaTxovili, ise gauTxovari qalebis saerTo maCvenebeli 18,5%-s Seadgens53. xolo mamakacebis

47 g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 68. 48 ojaxis dagegmva da reproduqciuli janmrTeloba saqarTveloSi. mdgomareobis Sefaseba. saboloo angariSi. xelmZRvaneli d. xubua. saerTaSoriso fondi “kuracio”. 1996; qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. saqarTvelo, 1999-2000. saboloo angariSi. moamzada:

f. serbaneskum, l. morisma, n. nucubiZem, p. imnaZem, m. Saxnazarovam. Tbilisi, 2001. 49 mamakacebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. angariSi moamzada: a. xomasuriZem, j. qristesaSvilma, g. wulaZem. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005; Reproductive Health Survey Georgia, 2005. Final Report. Editors: F. Serbanescu, P. Imnadze, Z. Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007. 50 qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva saqarTveloSi, 2005. winaswari angariSi. redaqtorebi: f. serbanesku, p. imnaZe, z. boxua, n. nucubiZe, d. b. jeqsoni, l. morisi. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 66. 51 mamakacebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. angariSi moamzada: a. xomasuriZem, j. qristesaSvilma, g. wulaZem. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 153-154. 52 iqve, gv. 155. 53 qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva saqarTveloSi, 2005. winaswari angariSi. redaqtorebi: f. serbanesku, p. imnaZe, z. boxua, n. nucubiZe, d. b. jeqsoni, l. morisi. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 74.

80

SemTxvevaSi igive maCvenebeli 15-24 wlis asakisaTvis 40%-s aRemateba54. amdenad, aSkaraa sqesobrivi urTierTobis Taobaze mamakacebisa da qalebis pasuxebs Soris gansxvaveba. aseTi mdgomareoba ori garemoebiT SeiZleba aixsnas: 1) mamakacebi sqesobriv urTierTobaTa Sesaxeb ramdenadme gadaWarbebul sidides asaxeleben; 2) gauTxovari qalebi SeiZleba malaven TavianT sqesobriv aqtivobas. SeiZleba amis gamo aris rom 15-24 wlis asakis gauTxovari qalebis mxolod 0, 6%55 aRniSnavs sqesobriv urTierTobas bolo 3 Tvis ganmavlobaSi.

daqorwinebul mamakacebs Soris, 12% aRiarebs, rom aqvs qorwinebis gareSe sqesobrivi urTierToba. amgvar mamakacTa partniorebi arian rogorc dauqorwinebeli qalebi, ise ganqorwinebulebi, qvrivebi da daqorwinebuli qalebi56.

dauqorwinebel mamakacebs iSviaTad aqvT sqesobrivi urTierTobebi daqorwinebul qalebTan. maT naxevars urTierToba aqvs dauqorwinebel qalebTan da ¼-s ganqorwinebulebTan, xolo 7%-s qvrivebTan. 15-24 wlis mamakacebi ZiriTadad dauqorwinebel qalebTan urTierToben57.

saintereso suraTi miiReba mamakacebis sqesobrivi partniorebis qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis mixedviT ganawilebisas.

diagrama 2.17. mamakacebis ganawileba (%) maTi sqesobrivi partnioris qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis mixedviT (saqarTvelo, 2005)

2.4

11.7

10.1

2.4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

daqorwinebuli

dauqorwinebeli

ganqorwinebuli

qvrivi

%

wyaro: mamakacebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. angariSi moamzada:

a. xomasuriZem, j. qristesaSvilma, g. wulaZem. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 161 (cxrilSi motanili monacemebi gadaangariSebulia Cvens mier).

rogorc vxedavT, im daqorwinebuli mamakacebis meti wili, romlebsac qorwinebis gareSe sqesobrivi urTierToba aqvT, modis dauqorwinebel da ganqorwinebul qalebze, xolo mcire wili qvrivebsa da daqorwinebul qalebze.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, oficialuri monacemebi da specialuri gamokvlevis Sedegebi xelovnuri abortebis Sesaxeb mniSvnelov-nad gansxvavdeba. miuxedavad amisa, vidre specialuri gamokvlevebis Sedegebs ganvixilavdeT abortebis Sesaxeb, mizanSewonilad migvaCnia

54 mamakacebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. angariSi moamzada: a. xomasuriZem, j. qristesaSvilma, g. wulaZem. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 155. 55 qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva saqarTveloSi, 2005. winaswari angariSi. redaqtorebi: f. serbanesku, p. imnaZe, z. boxua, n. nucubiZe, d. b. jeqsoni, l. morisi. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 74. 56 mamakacebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. angariSi moamzada: a. xomasuriZem, j. qristesaSvilma, g. wulaZem. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 35. 57 iqve.

81

oficialuri, jandacvis statistikis monacemebis motana legaluri abortebis Sesaxeb.

diagrama 2.18. legaluri abortebis raodenoba saqarTveloSi jandacvis statistikis mixedviT (aTasi)

15.013.9 13.8

17.219.7

21.2

5.3 5.1 5.26.6 6.7 7.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

sul mini


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 71.

rogorc motanili diagramidan vxedavT, 2001-2003 wlebSi umniSvnelo klebis Semdeg, rogorc zogadad legaluri abortebis, ise mini abortebis raodenoba saqarTveloSi 2004 wlidan matulobs. amasTan, aRsaniSnavia isic, rom legaluri abortebis raodenobis zrdasTan erTad matulobda iseTi maCvenebeli, rogoricaa abortebis raodenoba 15-49 wlis asakis 1000 qalze. Cveni azriT, mocemul SemTxvevaSi abortebis raodenobis matebas ki ar hqonda adgili, aramed ramdenadme gaumjobesda abortebis aRricxva. realurad abortebis rogorc raodenoba, ise misi intensivobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba gacilebiT meti iyos.

aRniSnulze naTlad metyvelebs saqarTveloSi 1999 da 2005 wels Catarebuli qalebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvlevis Sedegebi.

diagrama 2.19. saqarTveloSi 1999 da 2005 wels Catarebuli gamokvlevebis Sedegad miRebuli abortis maCveneblebis Sedareba Sesabamis oficialur monacemebTan

wyaro: Reproductive Health Survey Georgia, 2005. Final Report. Editors: F. Serbanescu, P. Imnadze, Z.

Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007, pp. 58-59; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 71-72.

abortebis raodenoba 15-44 wlis 1000 qalze

18 15

125

104

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1999 2005

oficialuri gamokvlevis SedegebiT

abortis jamobrivi koeficienti

0.6 0.7

3.7

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

1999 2005

82

motanili diagramidan ramdenime daskvnis gamotana SeiZleba: 1) gamokvlevebis Sedegad miRebuli maCveneblebi gacilebiT didia, vidre oficialuri monacemebidan gamomdinare; 2) oficialuri monacemebidan gamomdinare 2005 wels 1999 welTan SedarebiT abortebis maCveneblebis garkveul zrdas hqonda adgili; 3) gamokvlevis SedegebiT abortebis maCveneblebi 2005 wels 1999 welTan SedarebiT klebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba.

aRsaniSnavia is garemoebac, rom saqarTveloSi abortis jamobrivi koeficienti mniSvnelovnad metia, vidre Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti, anu saSualod qalebi, cxovrebis ganmavlobaSi, gacilebiT nakleb bavSvs iyolieben da ufro met aborts ikeTeben.

abortis jamobrivi koeficientis sididis mixedviT saqarTvelo gamoirCeva sxva qveynebTan SedarebiT.

diagrama 2.20. abortis jamobrivi koeficienti saqarTvelosa da zogierT sxva qveyanaSi qalebis reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvlevebiT

3.7

3.1

3.2

2.6

2.3

1.6

1.3

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

saqarTvelo (1999)

saqarTvelo (2005)

azerbaijani (2001)

somxeTi (2000)

ruseTi (1999)

ukraina (1999)

moldaveTi (1997)


Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007, p. 58.

cxrili 2.1. qalebisa (15-44 wlis) da mamakacebis (15-49 wlis) mier kontracepciis gamoyeneba (%)

1999 _ qalebi 2005 _ qalebi 2005 _ mamakacebi nebismieri meTodi 24,7 28,4 30,3 Tanamedrove meTodebi 12,1 16,1 24,5

maT Soris: kondomi 3, 9 5, 3 18, 1 saSvilosnos Siga saSualeba (sSs) 5, 9 7, 0 3, 3

oraluri 0, 6 1, 9 2, 2 qalTa qirurgiuli sterilizacia 1, 0 1, 4 0, 3 vaziqtomia 0, 0 0, 0 spermicidebi 0, 1 0, 5 0, 1

saineqcio (depo provera) 0, 0 0, 2 gadaudebeli kontracepcia 0, 6 0, 0 0, 0

tradiciuli meTodebi 12,6 12,3 5,8 maT Soris:

kalendaruli 6, 2 5, 7 3, 0 Sewyvetili sqesobrivi aqti 6, 4 6, 6 2, 8

wyaro: qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva. saqarTvelo, 1999-2000. saboloo angariSi. moamzada: f. serbaneskum, l. morisma, n. nucubiZem, p. imnaZem,

m. Saxnazarovam. Tbilisi, 2001, gv. 126, 130, 139; mamakacebis reproduqciuli

83

janmrTelobis kvleva. angariSi moamzada: a. xomasuriZem, j. qristesaSvilma, g. wulaZem. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 170; Reproductive Health Survey Georgia, 2005. Final Report. Editors: F. Serbanescu, P. Imnadze, Z. Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007, p. 164.

rogorc qalebis, ise mamakacebis metma wilma ufro metad icis kontracepciis Tanamedrove meTodebis gamoyeneba, vidre tradiciulis. amasTan, qalebis SemTxvevaSi, 2005 wels 1999 welTan SedarebiT gaizarda im qalebis wili, romlebmac ician rogorc Tanamedrove, ise tradiciuli kontracepciis meTodebis gamoyenebis wesi.

rac Seexeba kontracepciis im meTodebs, romlebsac qalebi gamokiTxvis droisaTvis iyenebdnen, rogorc cxrilSi motanili monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, qalebis SemTxvevaSi 2005 wels 1999 welTan SedarebiT gaizarda kontracepciis Tanamedrove meTodebis gamoyeneba, xolo kontracepciis tradiciuli meTodebis gamoyeneba 2005 wels, praqtikulad, imave doneze darCa, rac 1999 wels iyo.

aRsaniSnavia isic, rom qalebTan SedarebiT mamakacebis meti wili iyenebs kontracepciis Tanamedrove meTodebs (Sesabamisad naklebad kontracepciis tradiciul meTodebs).

rogorc daqorwinebuli qalebis, ise mamakacebis metma wilma icis kontracepciis gamoyenebis wesi da amJamadac ufro xSirad iyenebs maT, vidre dauqorwineblebi.

aRsaniSnavia, rom gaTxovili qalebis TiTqmis or mesameds aqvs potenciuri moTxovna kontracepciaze; aqedan 16%-is potenciuri moTxovna jer kidev ar aris dakmayofilebuli. 1999 welTan SedarebiT 2005 wels konsultireba kontracepciuri meTodebis da kontraceptivebis efeqturobis Sesaxeb TiTqmis 2-jer gaizarda58.

58 qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvleva saqarTveloSi, 2005. winaswari angariSi. redaqtorebi: f. serbanesku, p. imnaZe, z. boxua, n. nucubiZe, d. b. jeqsoni, l. morisi. Tbilisi, 2005, gv. 46, 49.

84


uwinaresad yuradRebas iqcevs gardacvlilTa raodenobisa da misi asakobriv-sqesobrivi ganawilebis monacemTa sandooba. Cveni SefasebiT gardacvlilTa arasrul aRricxvas 2001-2006 wlebSic hqonda adgili, Tumca 2001-2004 wlebSi arasruli aRricxvis wili naklebi iyo wina periodTan SedarebiT da ar aRemateboda 6%-s. 2001-2004 wlebSi gardacvlilTa aRricxvis gaumjobesebis mizezi DFID-is proeqtis damsaxurebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos. marTalia, Semdeg wlebSic gardacvlilTa aRricxva ori sistemis59 funqcionirebis da maTi urTierTSedarebis safuZvelze warmoebda, magram ukve SedarebiT naklebi administrirebisa da meTvalyureobis fonze. amis Sedegad gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis wili gaizarda da SefasebiT 2005 wels 16%, xolo 2006 wels 13% Seadgina.

diagrama 2.21. gardacvlilTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. sd da SefasebiTi monacemebiT

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

sd Sefaseba


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 41.

diagrama 2.22. mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientebis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. sd da SefasebiTi monacemebiT

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

‰

sd

Sefaseba


59 sar (samoqalaqo aqtebis registraciis) organoebidan da uSualod samedicino dawesebulebebidan da eqimis mowmobiT.

85

statistikis departamentis mier, erTi mxriv gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis da meore mxriv mosaxleobis raodenobis gadametebiT warmodgenis Sedegad, mokvdaobis zogadi koeficienti mniSvnelovnad naklebi aRmoCnda SefasebasTan SedarebiT. maT Soris sxvaobam 2006 wels 3‰-s gadaaWarba (ix. diagrama 2.19.).

2006 wels 2000 welTan SedarebiT garkveuli cvlileba ganicada asakobrivma mokvdaobam, razedac naTlad metyvelebs mokvdaobis asakobrivi koeficientebis fardobiTi cvlileba.

qvemoT motanili diagrama (2.20.) efuZneba SefasebiT monacemebs. saqme is aris, rom statistikis departamentis Sesabamisi monacemebi garkveul eWvs badebs. magaliTad, 2006 wels mokvdaobis koeficienti Cvili gogonebis SemTxvevaSi metia Cvil biWebTan SedarebiT (iseve, rogorc 2005 wels60). aseTi movlenis arseboba praqtikulad SeuZlebelia da aqamde ar yofila dafiqsirebuli, ukanaskneli naxevari saukunis manZilze mainc. yovelTvis biWebisa da mamakacebis mokvdaobis intensivoba aRemateba gogonebisa da qalebis mokvdaobas, an zogierT dabal asakSi isini erTmaneTis toli SeiZleba iyos. aRniSnuli mdgomareoba ufro arasruli aRricxvis Sedegi unda iyos, vidre realuri viTareba.

diagrama 2.23. mokvdaobis asakobrivi koeficientebis fardobiTi cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2006 wels 2000 welTan SedarebiT (swori xazi _ 2000 wlis done)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-1 1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85+

mamakacebi

qalebi

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 87-88 (Sefaseba).

rogorc mamakacebis, ise gansakuTrebiT qalebis SemTxvevaSi, mokvdaobis intensivoba yvelaze metad gaizarda 5-9 wlis asakSi. marTalia naklebi sididiT, magram mokvdaobis intensivobis zrdas adgili hqonda 15-55 wlis asakis mamakacebis da erT wlamde asakis, aseve 20-39 wlis asakis qalebis SemTxvevaSi. mokvdaobis intensivobis kleba mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi SeiniSneba 5 wlamde, 60-64, 70-74 da 80 wlisa da ufros asakSi. qalebis SemTxvevaSi mokvdaobis intensivoba Semcirda 1-4, 15-19 da 45-84 wlis asakSi.

rac Seexeba CvilTa mokvdaobas 2001-2006 wlebSi misi cvlileba naCvenebia qvemoT motanil diagramaze.

60 2005 weli, am TvalsazrisiT, gamorCeuli iyo. gogonaTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi aRemateboda biWebisas 10 wlis asakamde.

86

diagrama 2.24. CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

10

15

20

25

sd 22.9 23.8 24.8 23.8 19.7 15.8

jandacva 20.0 20.2 18.7 18.0 18.4 17.8

Sefaseba 22.0 22.5 24.5 24.2 23.0 23.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 91.

statistikis departamentis monacemebiT 2005 da 2006 wlebSi CvilTa mokvdaobam sagrZnoblad daiklo. jandacvis monacemebiT CvilTa mokvdaobis kleba, SedarebiT umniSvnelo iyo, Tumca 2003 wlidan iwyeba garkveuli mateba da 2006 wels misi sidide aRemateba statistikis departamentis Sesabamis maCvenebels. SefasebiTi monacemebiT 2003-2004 wlebSi CvilTa mokvdaoba ramdenadme matulobs, xolo Semdeg umniSvnelod iklebs. amasTan, CvilTa mokvdaoba SefasebiTi monacemebiT meti iyo jandacvisa da gansakuTrebiT statistikis departamentis Sesabamis maCvenebelze.

2005 wels Catarebuli qalTa reproduqciuli janmrTelobis kvlevis Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rom CvilTa mokvdaoba SeiZleba metic ki iyos, vidre es SefasebiTi monacemebidan gamomdinareobs, da saSualod saqarTvelosaTvis 29-s aRwevdes 1000 cocxlad dabadebulze. amasTan, qalaqad is naklebia, vidre soflad (Sesabamisad 25, 6 da 32, 3)61.

aRsaniSnavia, rom CvilTa mokvdaoba sagrZnoblad gansxvavdeba saqarTvelos regionebis mixedviT.

diagrama 2.25. CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi saqarTvelos regionebSi 2005 w.

27.046.8

28.134.7

42.125.8

8.810.6

22.147.5

31.6

0 10 20 30 40 50

Tbilisi

kaxeTi

Sida qarTli

qvemo qarTli

samcxe-javaxeTi

aWara

guria

samegrelo

imereTi

mcxeTa-mTianeTi

raWa-svaneTi


Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007, p. XV.

61 Reproductive Health Survey Georgia, 2005. Final Report. Editors: F. Serbanescu, P. Imnadze, Z. Bokhua, N. Nutsubidze, D. B. Jackson, L. Morris. Atlanta, 2007, p. XV.

87

rogorc vxedavT, CvilTa mokvdaobis dabali doniT gamoirCeva guria da samegrelo, xolo Zalian maRalia mcxeTa-mTianeTSi, kaxeTsa da samcxe-javaxeTSi.

rac Seexeba gardacvlilTa wils daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebis mixedviT, rogorc wina periodSi, ise 2001-2006 wlebSi gardacvlilTa yvelaze meti wili modis sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebsa da axalwarmonaqmnebze. sxva daavadebaTa wili maTTan SedarebiT mniSvnelovnad naklebia.

cxrili 2.2. gardacvlilTa wili (%) saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. daavadebaTa zogierTi ZiriTadi klasis mixedviT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 71,9 72,8 65,2 62,3 68,9 67,6 axalwarmonaqmnebi 10,8 10,3 12,2 11,4 10,2 10,9 simptomebi, niSnebi da normidan gadaxrebi, gamovlenili klinikuri da laboratoriuli gamokvlevebisas, romlebic ar arian klasificirebuli sxva rubrikebSi 3,4 3,5 3,1 4,8 7,0 8,0 saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi 3,1 2,7 4,8 3,5 2,8 2,6 travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegi 2,9 2,9 2,9 3,9 2,7 2,8 sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 2,5 2,5 4,1 8,2 2,6 2,9 endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevis daavadebebi 1,7 1,6 3,5 1,7 1,2 1,1 perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi 1,6 1,6 1,8 1,8 2,2 2,1 sxva 1,1 1,1 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,5 zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,5 sul 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, p. 98 (cxrilSi motanili monacemebi gaangariSebulia Cvens mier).

motanili cxrilidan naTelia, rom gardacvlilTa wili daavadebaTa zogierTi ZiriTadi klasis mixedviT 2001-2006 wlebSi garkveul cvalebadobas ganicdida.

yuradRebas iqcevs is garemoeba, rom 2005-2006 wlebSi wina periodTan SedarebiT sakmaod gaizarda im gardacvalebulTa wili, romelTa sikvdilis mizezebi ar arian klasificirebuli, rac diagnostikis gauaresebaze metyvelebs.

arasasurvel tendenciad unda miviCnioT gardacvlilTa wilis zrda perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT. aRniSnul daavadebaTa klasi CvilTa mokvdaobis ZiriTadi mizezia da amdenad, misi zrda CvilTa mokvdaobis intensivobaze aisaxeba.

gardacvlilTa dabali wili zogierT infeqciur da parazitul daavadebebze modis. amasTan, bolo wlebSi SeiniSneba gardacvlilTa wilis kleba aRniSnuli daavadebiT.

88

mokvdaobis intensivobis daxasiaTebisaTvis ufro mizanSewonilia mokvdaobis koeficientebis gamoyeneba sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT, Tumca gansxvaveba maT cvalebadobaSi 2001-2006 wlebSi imdenad mcirea, rom maTi grafikuli gamosaxuleba mizanSewonilad ar miviCnieT. informacia sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT mokvdaobis koeficientebze warmodgenilia danarTSi motanil cxrilebSi.

sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT mokvdaobis koeficientebis cvalebadoba ufro TvalsaCinoa fardobiTi cvlilebis warmodgeniT.

diagrama 2.26. mokvdaobis koeficientebis fardobiTi cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2006 wlisaTvis 2001 welTan SedarebiT sikvdilis zogierTi mizezis mixedviT (swori xazi _ 2001 w.)



Sedegi. wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA.

Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 102-103 (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi mokvdaobam mniSvnelovnad daiklo zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebisagan, xolo ramdenadme naklebad _ endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevisa da saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebiT. amave dros, rogorc mamakacebis, ise gansakuTrebiT qalebis SemTxvevaSi mokvdaoba mniSvnelovnad gaizarda perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT. aRsaniSnavia mokvdaobis mateba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT, gansakuTrebiT qalebis SemTxvevaSi.

mokvdaobis asakobrivi koeficientebis cvlileba da trendi asakis mixedviT gansxvavdeba daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebisaTvis (ix. diagrama 2.27).

zogadi kanonzomierebebi ki Semdegnairad warmogvidgeba: 1) trendis TvalsazrisiT wlebis ganmavlobaSi msgavsia ZiriTadad

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi;

mamakacebi qalebi

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

89

diagrama 2.27. mokvdaobis asakobrivi koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 2006w. daavadebaTa zogierTi ZiriTadi klasis mixedviT (Sesabamisi sqesisa da asakis 100000 adamianze)

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 158-159 (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli

daavadeba

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+

axalwarmonaqmnebi

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis

daavadebebi

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+

sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+

saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis

daavadebebi

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+

mamakacebi qalebi

travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe

faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi

sxva Sedegi

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85+

90

2) 2006 wels zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebiT mokvdaobis piki mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi 85 wlisa da ufrosi asakze, xolo qalebis SemTxvevaSi _ 80-84 wlis asakze modis;

3) mokvdaoba axalwarmonaqmnebiT 30 wlis asakamde minimaluria. 35 wlis asakidan mokvdaobis intensivoba axalwarmonaqmnebiT iwyebs zrdas. gansakuTrebiT mkveTr zrda aRiniSneba 60 wlis asakidan da maqsimums aRwevs 85 wlisa da ufros asakSi;

4) mokvdaoba sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebiT praqtikulad dabalia 60 wlis asakamde. 65 wlis asakis Semdeg mokvdaobis intensivoba sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebiT mniSvnelovan matebas iwyebs da maqsimums aRwevs 85 da ufros asakSi;

5) zogadad mokvdaobis trendi sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebis trendis msgavsia. gansxvaveba is aris, rom mokvdaobis intensivoba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT daaxloebiT 20-jer naklebia, vidre sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisagan;

6) 35 wlis asakamde mokvdaoba saWmlis momnelebeli daavadebebiT dabalia. 70 wlis asakidan mokvdaobis intensivoba izrdeba da maqsimums 85 wlis da ufros asakSi aRwevs;

7) mokvdaoba travmebiT, mowamvlebiT da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva SedegiT qalebis SemTxvevaSi, mamakacebTan SedarebiT, sagrZnoblad naklebia. mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi, qalebTan SedarebiT, mokvdaoba aRniSnuli sikvdilis mizeziT, mniSvnelovnad metia 20-55 wlis asakSi, anu Sromisunarian asakSi. rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi mokvdaoba motanili mizeziT maqsimums aRwevs 85 da ufros asakSi. amasTan, mamakacebis mokvdaobis intensivoba gacilebiT ufro didia, vidre qalebis.

1990-ian wlebSi mniSvnelovani cvlileba ganicada CvilTa mokvdaobis struqturam sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT. wina periodSi Warbobda mokvdaoba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT. 2000 wlisaTvis mokvdaoba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebiT Semcirda. samagierod rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi mniSvnelovnad gaizarda mokvdaoba perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili mdgomareobebiT.

vnaxoT, Tu ra cvlilebebi moxda am mxriv 2001 da 2006 wlebSi (ix. diagrama 2.28).

2000-ian wlebSi ganagrZobs klebas CvilTa mokvdaoba zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebisagan da 2005 wlidan praqtikulad aRar gvxvdeba. imave dros mcirdeba CvilTa mokvdaoba sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebisagan.

aRniSnuli klebis fonze 2001-2006 wlebSi matulobs mokvdaoba ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebiT, deformaciebiT da qromosomuri anomaliebiT. aRsaniSnavia, rom CvilTa mokvdaoba motanili mizeziT 1990-2000 wlebSi klebulobda.

2000-ian wlebSi ganagrZobs matebas CvilTa mokvdaoba perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT. amasTan, CvilTa mokvdaobis sidide aRniSnuli mizeziT gacilebiT aRemateba mokvdaobas sxva mizezebiT. aRsaniSnavia, rom CvilTa mokvdaobis zrdis sidide perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiTac ki ufro meti iyo, vidre CvilTa mokvdaoba 2006 wels yvela sxva mizeziT.

91

diagrama 2.28. erT wlamde gardacvlil bavSvTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 2001 da 2006 ww. sikvdilis zogierTi mizezis mixedviT (Sesabamisi sqesisa da asakis 100000 Cvilze)

biWebi gogonebi

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2004 2006 2001 2004 2006

1

2

3

4

1 _ zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 2 – sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 3 _ perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi 4 _ ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebi, deformaciebi da qromosomuri

anomaliebi

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 148-149, 154-155, 158-159 (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

sainteresoa 2001-2006 wlebSi daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebidan gamomdinare sikvdilis saSualo asakis cvlilebis analizi.

diagrama 2.29. sikvdilis saSualo asakis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. daavadebaTa ZiriTadi 7 klasis mixedviT

mamakacebi qalebi

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

asaki

2001 44.2 64.2 65.7 70.5 41.9 61.5 43.9 40.6 63.4 69.4 76.2 48.6 69.7 55.5

2006 46.8 64.6 67.5 70.7 65.2 58.9 44.6 52.0 64.4 70.4 76.8 73.2 70.4 53.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1. zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 2. axalwarmonaqmnebi 3. endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis

darRvevis daavadebebi 4. sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 5. sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 6. saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi 7. travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva

Sedegi.

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier _ G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 120-121, 130-131 (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

92

saqarTveloSi 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT zogadad sikvdilis saSualo asaki umniSvnelod gaizarda da mamakacebisaTvis 65, 2 weli, xolo qalebisaTvis _ 72, 7 weli Seadgina.

rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis sikvdilis saSualo asaki ZiriTadi klasebis mixedviT umetes SemTxvevaSi gaizarda. igi yvelaze mniSvnelovnad sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebis SemTxvevaSi gaizarda da 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT zrdam Sesabamisad 23, 3 da 24, 6 weli Seadgina, rac esoden mokle periodisaTvis Zalian mniSvnelovnad unda CaiTvalos.

aRniSnul periodSi, mamakacebis sikvdilis saSualo asaki umniSvnelod Semcirda (2, 6 wliT) saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebiT. qalebis ki _ travmebis, mowamvlebis da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva SedegiT (2, 5 wliT).

mTlianobaSi, sikvdilis saSualo asakis cvlileba 2001-2006 wlebSi dadebiTad SeiZleba Sefasdes.

saqarTveloSi, sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas, 2001-2006 wlebSi garkveul cvalebadobas ganicdida.

diagrama 2.30. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww. sd da SefasebiTi monacemebiT

mamakacebi qalebi

6062646668707274767880

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

asak

i

sd Sefaseba

wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 160-161.

pirvel rigSi aRsaniSnavia sxvaoba statistikis departamentis da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris. sxvaoba maT Soris umniSvnelo iyo 2001-2002 wlebSi. Semdeg periodSi sxvaoba sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobas Soris statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba da 2006 wels mamakacebisaTvis is 2, 7 wels, xolo qalebisaTvis 3 wels Seadgens. aRniSnuli gansxvaveba statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris, Cveni azriT, gamowveulia ori mizeziT: 1) statistikis departamentis SemTxvevaSi gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis zrdiT da 2) mosaxleobis realurTan SedarebiT meti raodenobiT gansazRvriT, rac sabolood iwvevs mokvdaobis koeficientebis faqtobrivTan SedarebiT naklebi sididiT warmodgenas da sabolood aisaxeba sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobaze.

SefasebiTi monacemebiT, sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas, 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT, mamakacebisaTvis 1 wliT Semcirda, xolo qalebisaTvis 0, 5 wliT gaizarda.

93

diagrama 2.31. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis dabadebisas cvlileba 2001-2006 wlebSi wina welTan SedarebiT

-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

mamakacebi 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.2 0.5 -0.2

qalebi 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.3 0.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier _ G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. emographic

Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 160-161. (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis dabadebisas 2001-2006 wlebSi mimdinare cvlilebebis wina welTan Sedareba gviCvenebs, rom mamakacebisaTvis mniSvnelovan klebas hqonda adgili 2004 wels, xolo qalebis SemTxvevaSi _ 2003 wels. 2006 wels 2005 welTan SedarebiT mamakacebis sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas Semcirda 0, 2 wliT, xolo qalebis SemTxvevaSi gaizarda 0, 9 wliT.

diagrama 2.32. asakis roli mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi 2001 da 2006 wlebSi

wyaro: gaangariSebulia Cvens mier _ G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 134-135, 144-145, 199, 204. (SefasebiTi monacemebiT).

mniSvneloba aqvs im garemoebas, Tu romel asakSi arsebulma gansxvavebebma gamoiwvia sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi cvlileba qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris.

2001 wels sxvaobas sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris ZiriTadad gansazRvravda 1 wlamde da 40-70 wlis asakobrivi

2001 weli

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

-1 1-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

+

2006 weli

-1 1-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

+

94

jgufebi. 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT Semcirda 1 wlamde asakis wvlili qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cvlilebis gansazRvraSi, Tumca arsebiTi iyo da amasTan 2001 welTan SedarebiT gaizarda 35-69 wlis asakobrivi jgufis roli.

qalebisa da mamakacebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi arsebuli gansxvaveba SefasebiTi monacemebiT 2001 wels iyo 6, 95 weli, xolo 2006 wels _ 8, 42 weli. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis TvalsazrisiT adgili hqonda or process. 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT naxevari wliT gaizarda qalebis sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba. imave dros erTi wliT Semcirda mamakacebis sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba. amdenad, dadebiT movlenasTan (qalebis SemTxvevaSi) erTad adgili hqonda uaryofiT movlenasac (mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi).

sikvdilis sxvadasxva mizezma gansxvavebuli roli iTamaSa sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis cvlilebaSi 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT.

diagrama 2.33. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cvlilebaSi saqarTveloSi 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1 2 3 4 5 6

mamakacebi

qalebi

1 _ zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 2 _ axalwarmonaqmnebi 3 _ endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis

darRvevis daavadebebi 4 _ sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 5 _ sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 6 _ perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi

wyaro: danarTi 1., cxrili 20, 21.

sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba qalebisaTvis yvelaze metad gaizarda sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebis Semcirebis xarjze. imave dros aRniSnul daavadebas praqtikulad gavlena ar hqonda mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis zrdaSi rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi, dadebiTi roli iTamaSa sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebis Semcirebam. aseve dadebiTi wvlili Seitana zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadebebis klebam orive sqesisaTvis da axalwarmonaqmnebis daavadebebiT Semcirebam qalebis SemTxvevaSi.

95

sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis SemcirebaSi rogorc mamakacebis, ise gansakuTrebiT qalebis SemTxvevaSi arsebiTi iyo perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebiT daavadebebis mateba. uaryofiTi wvlili mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi Seitana agreTve axalwarmonaqmnebma.

rogorc 2001 wels, ise 2006 wels sxvaobas mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris ZiriTadad gansazRvravda mokvdaoba sisxilis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisa da travmebis, mowamvlebis da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis sxva Sedegebisa da axalwarmonaqmnebisagan.

diagrama 2.34. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi saqarTveloSi 2001 da 2006 ww. (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

20012006

1 _ zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 2 _ axalwarmonaqmnebi 3 _ nerviuli sistemebis daavadebebi 4 _ sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 5 _ sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 6 _ saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi 7 _ perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi 8 _ travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva

Sedegi

wyaro: danarTi 1., cxrili 22, 23.

sainteresoa imis codna, Tu ra gavlenas moaxdenda sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobaze zogierTi daavadebis ar arsebobas.

cxadia, romelime daavadebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba naklebi iqneba, vidre am daavadebis gareSe.

mocemul SemTxvevaSi sainteresoa im sxvaobebis gamovlena, romelic iqneboda ama Tu im daavadebisas da daavadebis gareSe da aRniSnuli sxvaobebis dadgena garkveuli periodisaTvis.

2004 wels, 1989 welTan SedarebiT axalwarmonaqmnebis mizeziT mamakacebisaTvis es sxvaoba, ramdenadme gaizarda da 2, 1 weli Seadgina, amasTan, maRal asakSi es sxvaoba ufro naklebia, vidre dabal asakSi.

diagrama 2.35. dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba zogierTi daavadebis SemTxvevaSi da mis gareSe 1989 da 2004 ww.

96

mamakacebi

4

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

1 2

3

qalebi

4

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

arse

buli

daavadeb

iT

daavadeb

isga

reS

e

1 2

3

1989 2004

1 - axalwarmonaqmnebi 2 - sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 3 - sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 4 - travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva

Sedegi

wyaro: g. wulaZe. sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cvlilebis mizezebi saqarTveloSi. Tbilisi, 2007, gv. 40, 107 (gaangariSebulia n. maRlaferiZis mier)..

qalebis SemTxvevaSi, mamakacebis msgavsad, axalwarmonaqmnebis gareSe sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas 2 wliT gaizrdeboda 2004 wels, xolo 1989 wels rezervi mxolod 1, 5 weli iyo.

sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrdis yvelaze did rezervs sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebis likvidacia iZleva. 2004 wels, mamakacebisaTvis aRniSnuli rezervi dabadebisas ufro didia qalebTan SedarebiT (Sesabamisad 8, 4 da 6, 9 welia).

97

rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi sicocxlis xangrZlivobis rezervi sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebisagan 2004 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT ramdenadme Semcirda.

sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebis likvidacia daaxloebiT sicocxlis xangrZlivobis 1 wlis rezervs iZleva rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi.

travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegis likvidaciisas mamakacebis SemTxvevaSi sicocxlis xangrZlivobis met rezervs iZleva qalebTan SedarebiT da 1, 5 wels Seadgens dabadebisas (qalebis SemTxvevaSi _ 0, 6 weli)62.

62 g. wulaZe. sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cvlilebis mizezebi saqarTveloSi. Tbilisi, 2007,

gv. 41.

98


gansxvaveba statistikis departamentis da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris, 2001-2006 wlebSi, bunebriv matebasa da mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis maCveneblebSi ZiriTadad gamowveulia sami mizeziT: 1) statistikis departamentis mier dabadebaTa da gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxviT; 2) gare migraciis arasaTanadod SefasebiT, 2004 wlidan gare migraciis sididis gansazRvrisas meTodologiuri SecdomebiT; 3) mosaxleobis raodenobis gadametebiT warmoCenaSi.

diagrama 2.32. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba 2001-2006 ww.

1.4

0.2 0.10.8

3.5

5.5

1.8

0.7 0.6 0.3

-0.3

1.3

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

aTas

i

sd Sefaseba


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 41.

rogorc motanili diagramidan Cans, gansxvaveba statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiT monacemebs Soris 2000-ian wlebSi yovel wels SeimCneva.

msgavsi gansxvavebaa aseve bunebrivi matebis koeficientebs Soris 2001-2006 wlebSi mosaxleobia 1000 sulze.

diagrama 2.33. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis koeficienti 2001-2006 ww. (‰).

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

sd

Sefaseba


99

rac Seexeba mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficients mas 2001-2006 wlebSi Semdegi trendi hqonda.

diagrama 2.34. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientebi 2001-2006 ww.

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

sd

Sefaseba


Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 43-44.

rogorc vxedavT, mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis statistikis departamentisa da SefasebiTi monacemebis mixedviT gamoTvlili neto koeficientebis trendebi msgavsia. gansxvaveba is aris, rom SefasebiTi monacemebiT mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti metia, vidre statistikis departamentis monacemebiT. aRniSnuli gansxvavebis miuxedavad rogorc statistikis departamentis, ise SefasebiTi monacemebiT mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientebi naklebia erTze, rac miuTiTebs mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecil reJimze, romelic saqarTveloSi 1992 wlidan damkvidrda.

100

2.6. qorwineba da ganqorwineba

2002 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT mTlianobaSi Semcirda qorwinebaSi myofi rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis raodenoba Sesabamisi sqesis 1000 sulze. aRniSnuli kleba mamakacebis yvela asakobrivi jgufisaTvis iyo damaxasiaTebeli, xolo qalebisaTvis mxolod 60 wlis asakamde, ufros asakSi ki zrda SeiniSneboda. mocemulze naTel warmodgenas iZleva diagrama 2.35.

diagrama 2.35. qorwinebaSi myofi saqarTvelos mosaxleoba 1989 da 2002 ww. (Sesabamisi sqesisa da asakis 1000 sulze)

mamakacebi qalebi

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

20-2

9

30-3

9

40-4

9

50-5

9

60-6

9

70+

20-2

9

30-3

9

40-4

9

50-5

9

60-6

9

70+

19892002

wyaro: saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli erovnuli sayovelTao aRweris

Sedegebi. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. t. I. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 137-138.

amave dros Sesabamisi asakisa da sqesis mosaxleobis 1000 sulze gaizarda arasodes daqorwinebulTa raodenoba.

diagrama 2.36. viTareba saqarTvelos “saqorwino bazarze” 1989 da 2002 ww. (qorwinebaSi armyofi qalebis raodenoba saSualod qorwinebaSi armyof 1 mamakacze)

1.1

1.7

2.1

3.2

1.2 1.2 1.21.4

1.9

2.92.6

1.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

20-24 15-19

25-29 20-24

30-34 25-29

35-39 30-34

40-44 35-39

45-49 40-44

mamakacebi

qalebi

19892002


Sedegebi. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. t. I. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 139-140; g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba (1960-2000). Tbilisi, 2002, gv. 22.

101

rogorc motanili diagramidan Cans viTareba “saqorwino bazarze”

2002 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT 30 wlamde mamakacebisa da 25 wlamde

qalebisaTvis naklebad Seicvala. mniSvnelovan cvlilebas hqonda adgili

30-44 wlis asakis mamakacebisa da 25-39 wlis asakis qalebisaTvis. aRniSnul

asakSi qorwinebaSi armyofi qalebis raodenoba saSualod qorwinebaSi

armyof 1 mamakacze Semcirda, xolo 45-49 wlis mamakacebisa da 40-44 wlis

qalebisaTvis ramdenadme gaizarda. motanili disproporciebis cvlileba

imaze migvaniSnebs, rom aRniSnuli asakobrivi jgufebisaTvis erT

SemTxvevaSi situacia “saqorwino bazarze” gaumjobesda, xolo meore

SemTxvevaSi _ ramdenadme gauaresda.

1990-ian wlebSi rogorc mamakacebisaTvis, ise qalebisaTvis

mimdinareobda xelaxal qorwinebaTa wilis Semcireba da ukve 2000

wlisaTvis xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili ramdenjerme naklebi iyo 1990 wlis

donesTan SedarebiT.

diagrama 2.37. xelaxal qorwinebaTa wilis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5%

mamakacebi 2.2 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.7 1.3

qalebi 1.5 1.2 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.1

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 55-56.

XXI saukuneSi xelaxal qorwinebaTa wili saqarTveloSi ganicdis

garkveul cvlilebas. is jer klebulobs, 2003 wlisaTvis ramdenadme

matulobs, xolo 2006 wlisaTvis mcirdeba uaRresad dabal donemde,

romelic dafiqsirebuli iyo bolo 25 wlis ganmavlobaSi.

gansaxilvel periodSi cvlilebas ganicdida qorwinebis asaki.

kerZod, pirveli qorwinebis saSualo asaki 2006 wels 2000 welTan

SedarebiT mamakacebisaTvis 1 wliT, xolo qalebisaTvis 0, 7 wliT gaizarda

da Sesabamisad 29, 4 da 25, 4 weli Seadgina.

2004 wlidan rogorc yvela registrirebul qorwinebaTa, ise pirvelad

registrirebul qorwinebaTa raodenoba saqarTveloSi ganuxrelad

matulobda. amasTan, aRsaniSnavia rom 2003 wlidan saqarTveloSi

mcirdeboda imaTi wili, vinc qorwinebisas qvrivi da ganqorwinebuli iyo,

xolo mis paralelurad izrdeboda dauqorwineblebis wili.

2002 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT, garkveuli klebis Semdeg, 2003

wlidan qorwinebis jamobrivi koeficienti ganagrZobs ganuxrelad zrdas

102

da 2006 wels aRwevs 1993 wlis dones, Tumca is mainc 1990-1991 wlebis

doneze mniSvnelovnad ufro dabalia.

diagrama 2.38. registrirebuli qorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientebis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

mamakacebi 0.495 0.467 0.473 0.557 0.679 0.694

qalebi 0.448 0.425 0.431 0.509 0.622 0.642

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 57.

2000-ian wlebSi ganqorwinebaTa absoluturi raodenoba saqarTveloSi izrdeba, Tumca aRniSnuli naklebad aisaxa ganqorwinebaTa raodenobaze mosaxleobis 1000 sulze da 2006 wlisaTvis mxolod 0, 5 Seadgina, rac ganqorwinebis dabal doned unda miviCnioT.

diagrama 2.39. ganqorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

0.080

mamakacebi 0.069 0.060 0.053 0.053 0.060 0.076

qalebi 0.063 0.057 0.054 0.053 0.059 0.065

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, p. 67.

aRsaniSnavia, rom 2001-2004 wlebSi ganqorwinebis jamobrivi koeficienti klebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda, xolo 2005 wlidan misi zrda SeimCneoda da 2006 wels praqtikulad 1997 wlis dones miaRwia.

rogorc cnobilia ganqorwinebis dones ufro zustad asaxavs ganqorwinebis indeqsi. aRniSnuli maCveneblis cvlileba saqarTveloSi naCvenebia qvemoT motanil diagramaze.

103

diagrama 2.40. ganqorwinebis indeqsis cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2001-2006 ww.

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

mamakacebi 0.139 0.129 0.112 0.095 0.089 0.110

qalebi 0.141 0.135 0.125 0.103 0.094 0.101

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2007, pp. 57, 67.

aRsaniSnavia, rom ganqorwinebis indeqsi ganqorwinebis jamobrivi koeficientisagan gansxvavebul suraTs iZleva. ganqorwinebis indeqsidan gamomdinare SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom ganqorwinebis done saqarTveloSi rogorc mamakacebisaTvis, ise qalebisaTvis 2001-2005 wlebSi klebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba Tumca ramdenadme izrdeba 2006 wlisaTvis. amasTan, Tu 2002-2005 wlebSi ganqorwinebis indeqsi qalebisaTvis meti iyo mamakacebTan SedarebiT, 2006 wels ukve mamakacebis ganqorwinebis done Warbobda qalebisas.

ganqorwinebis saSualo asaki saqarTveloSi 2000-ian wlebSi ZiriTadad mamakacebisaTvis 40-41, xolo qalebisaTvis 37-38 wlis asakis farglebSi meryeobda, xolo ganqorwinebis saSualo periodi qorwinebis xangrZlivobis mixedviT 11-12 wlis farglebSi meryeobs.

104

2.7. gare migracia

dabadebaTa da gardacvalebaTa aRricxvasTan SedarebiT, gare migraciis gacilebiT uaresi aRricxvis gamo, gare migraciis Sesaxeb monacemTa sandoobaze msjeloba uadgiloa. samwuxarod aseTi savalalo mdgomareoba 2000-ian wlebSic arsebobs.

2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegad moxda aRweraTaSoris periodisaTvis (1989-2001 ww.) gare migraciis Sesaxeb monacemTa gadasinjva da maTi axali saxiT warmodgena, razedac mocemuli naSromis wina nawilSi gvqonda saubari da amdenad aRniSnul sakiTxs aq aRar SevexebiT.

2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRwerisas gamoyenebul iqna specialuri forma em _ “emigrantTa saaRwero furceli”, romelic miznad isaxavda gare migraciasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebis Seswavlas.

samwuxarod aRniSnulma formam saTanadod ver “imuSava” da daafiqsira mxolod 113, 7 aTasi emigranti. maSin rodesac statistikis departamentis mier aRweraTaSorisi periodisaTvis mosaxleobis raodenobisa da bunebrivi matebis gaTvaliswinebiT, gadaangariSebuli gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo, bevrad meti aRmoCnda da 1989-2001 wlebisaTvis Seadgina 928, 6 aTasi63.

specialurad Catarebuli eqspertuli gamokvlevis Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis sayovelTao aRwerisas ver iqna mopovebuli srulfasovani informacia raodenobrivi TvlasazrisiT gare migrantebis Sesaxeb ZiriTadad Semdegi mizezebis gamo: 1) aRweram ver moicva emigraciaSi mTlianad wasuli ojaxebi; 2) xelisuflebisadmi undoblobis gamo mosaxleobam dafara emigraciis faqtebi; 3) sacxovrebel adgilze aravin imyofeboda64.

miuxedavad amisa, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 aRweris mixedviT, gare migrantebis Sesaxeb miRebuli monacemebis analizis Sedegad, dadgenil iqna, rom monacemebis umetesoba struqturuli TvalsazrisiT vargisia analizisaTvis. amasTan, monacemTa nawili, iseTi rogoric aris saqarTvelodan wasvlis xangrZlivoba, wasvlis weli da Sinameurneobebis ricxvi da sidide, Semdgomi analizisaTvis uvargisia65.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis aRweris mixedviT, gare migrantebis Sesaxeb miRebuli monacemebis analizis Sedegad dadgenil iqna66, rom:

1. emigrantebis saerTo raodenobaSi mamakacebis wili metia qalebis wilTan SedarebiT.

2. emigranti mamakacebisa da qalebis ganawilebas asakis mixedviT msgavsi tendencia axasiaTebs.

3. emigrantebis meti wili 25-44 wlis asakze modis. 4. wasvlamde emigrantebis mxolod mcire nawili iyo dasaqmebuli.

emigraciis mniSvnelovan faqtors dasaqmeba warmoadgens. 5. emigranti mamakacebis da qalebis didi umravlesoba sazRvargareT

ekonomikuri pirobebis gaumjobesebis mizniT miemgzavreba.

63 wyaro: saqarTvelos mosaxleoba. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 67. 64 g. wulaZe. emigracia saqarTvelodan 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebis mixedviT. Tbilisi, 2005, gv.47. 65 iqve.. 66 iqve, gv. 47-49.

105

6. emigrantebis daaxloebiT naxevars saqarTveloSi darCenil ojaxTan materialuri urTierToba ara aqvs. emigrantebis mesamedze meti materialurad exmareba saqarTveloSi darCenil ojaxs da mxolod mcire nawili Rebulobs materialur daxmarebas saqarTveloSi darCenili ojaxisagan.

7. emigrantebi, romlebic ojaxisagan Rebuloben materialur daxmarebas ZiriTadad 30 wlamde asakisani, xolo isini vinc exmarebian saqarTveloSi darCenil ojaxebs – ufrosi asakisani arian.

8. emigrantebis meti wili saSualo zogadi ganaTlebis mqonea. maTze ramdenadme naklebia umaRlesi da daumTavrebeli umaRlesi ganaTlebis mqone emigrantebis wili.

9. emigraciis maRali intensivobiT gamoirCeva samegrelo da zemo svaneTi, samcxe-javaxeTi, qvemo qarTli da Tbilisi. maTTan SedarebiT emigraciis intensivoba naklebi iyo imereTSi, kaxeTSi, mcxeTa-mTianeTsa da Sida qarTlSi. emigraciis yvelaze dabali intensivoba damaxasiaTebeli iyo aWaris, guriisa da raWa-leCxumisa da qvemo svaneTisaTvis.

10. emigrantebisa da saqarTvelos mosaxleobis Semadgenloba sqesisa da qorwinebiTi mdgomareobis mixedviT msgavsia.

11. emigrantebis didi umravlesoba (80%-ze meti) saqarTvelos moqalaqea. 12. marTmadidebeli, mahmadianuri, somxur-grigorianuli da iudeuri

sarwmunoebis emigrantebSi didi umetesoba saqarTvelos moqalaqea. kaTolikuri sarwmunoebis emigrantebSi umravlesoba sxva saxelmwifos moqalaqea. aRsaniSnavia, rom sxva saxelmwifos moqalaqeebSi ZiriTadad ruseTis moqalaqeebi Warboben.

13. korelaciuri analizis Sedegad dadginda, rom saqarTvelosa da sxva saxelmwifos moqalaqe emigrantebi gansxvavdebian sarwmunoebis mixedviT.

14. yvelaze dabali emigraciis intensivoba damaxasiaTebeli iyo qarTvelebisaTvis da Semdeg azerbaijanelebisa da somxebisaTvis. maTTan SedarebiT emigraciis maRali intesivoba axasiaTebdaT rusebs. somxebisa da qurTebis (iezidebis) emigraciis intensivoba msgavsia da meti iyo rusebTan SedarebiT. yvela sxva erovnebasTan SedarebiT, yvelaze maRali emigraciis intensivobiT gamoirCeodnen ebraelebi.

15. emigrantebis umravlesoba mSobliur enad asaxelebs Tavisi erovnebis enas.

16. sxva emigrantebTan SedarebiT, mSobliurad qarTul enas ebraeli, asirieli da Semdeg osi erovnebis emigrantebi asaxeleben.

17. qarTuli meore enad miaCniaT rusebis, qurTebisa da osebis umetesobas.

18. rusuli meore enad miaCniaT qarTvelebis, azerbaijanelebisa da somxebis did umravlesobas.

19. emigrantebis umravlesoba ruseTSi gaemgzavra da amJamadac iq cxovrobs. ruseTis Semdeg emigrantTa mniSvnelovani wili saberZneTSi gaemgzavra da amJamad iq cxovrobs. 2002 wlidan gare migraciis aRricxva isev problemad rCeboda.

statistikis departamentma praqtikulad uari sTqva registrirebul gare migrantTa Sesaxeb monacemebze. maTi realobasTan araadekvaturobidan gamomdinare. gamosavali, garkveulwilad, imiT gamoiZebna rom gamomdinare

106

gare migraciis saldos Sesaxeb aRweraTaSoris periodSi miRebuli trendidan statistikis departamenti gadavida gare migraciis saldos Sefasebaze, .

mogvianebiT statistikis departamentma aRniSnuli midgoma aramarTebulad miiCnia da daiwyo saqarTvelos sazRvris gadamkveTi pirebidan gamomdinare sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebis gamoyeneba.

qvemoT motanil diagramaze mocemulia gare migraciis saldo 2001-2006 wlebisaTvis statistikis departamentis monacemebiT, romlebic erT SemTxvevaSi SefasebiT xasiaTs atarebs (sd Sefaseba), xolo meore SemTxvevaSi efuZneba sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebs (sdd monacemebiT). iqve mocemulia eqspertuli Sefaseba.

diagrama 2.41. gare migraciis saldo saqarTvelosaTvis 2001-2006 ww.

-40-20

020406080

aTasi

sd Sefaseba -31.2 -29.1 -27.6 -26.9

sdd monacemebiT 5.5 76.3 -12.1

eqspertuli

Sefaseba

-35.2 -35.9 -35.5 -31.5 -30.4 -28.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Tbilisi, 2006, p. 186; G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007, p. 205.

2001-2003 wlebis gare migraciis saldo statistikis departamentma ucvleli datova. 2004 wlidan igi sargeblobs sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebiT, romelTagan gamomdinareobs, rom 2004-2005 wlebSi gare migraciis saldo dadebiTia, xolo 2006 wels _ uaryofiTia. eqspertuli SefasebiT gare migraciis saldo 2001-2006 wlebSi uaryofiTia da amasTan 2004 wlidan mas klebis tendencia axasiaTebs.

unda aRiniSnos, rom statistikis departamentis mier nebiT, Tu uneblieT daSvebul iqna meTodologiuri Secdoma. erT SemTxvevaSi daiwyo im ricxvebiT operireba, romlebic mosaxleobis zrdaze mianiSnebda, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi im ricxvebis saerTod ugulebelyofa, romlebic mosaxleobis klebas asaxavdnen.

Cven eWvi ar Segvaqvs saxelmwifo sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebSi, magram maT Tavisi daniSnuleba aqvs da maTi gamoyeneba gare migraciis gansazRvrisaTvis ar gamodgeba.

amasTan, aRniSnuli departamentis monacemebiT sazRvris gadamkveT pirTa migrantebTan gaigiveba mizanSewonili ar aris.

saqarTvelos sazRvars, bolo wlebSi, saSualod weliwadSi 3 milionze meti adamiani kveTs.

107

sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebis gamoyeneba gare migraciis saldos sididis gansazRvrisaTvis mizanSewonili ar aris Semdegi mizezebis gamo: jer erTi, vinme aucileblad unda dafiqrebuliyo, rom 4 milionian

qveyanaSi erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi 3 milioni migranti ver iqneboda meore, gaugebaria, Tu ratom iyo gaTvaliswinebuli saqarTvelos

mosaxleobis raodenobis cvlilebaSi migraciuli faqtoris gaTvaliswinebisas mxolod saqarTvelos moqalaqeebi da ugulebelyofili sxva qveynis moqalaqeebi?

mesame, sazRvris gadamkveTi yvela piri migrantad ver CaiTvleba. saqme isaa, rom zogierTi piri wlis ganmavlobaSi sazRvars ramdenjerme kveTs;

meoTxe, rac mTavaria, mocemul SemTxvevaSi arsebiTi mniSvneloba aqvs Semosvla-gasvlis xangrZlivobas. sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebi, samwuxarod,

diferencirebuli ar aris Semosvla-gasvlis xangrZlivobis mixedviT, xolo amis gareSe ar SeiZleba migraciis saldoze seriozuli msjeloba.

saqme isaa, rom yvela gamokvlevis (maT Soris statistikis departamentis) Sedegebi uCveneben, rom sazRvris gadamkveT pirTa meti wili modis 3 Tvemde xangrZlivobaze, xolo piri, romelic qveyanaSi sam Tvemde imyofeba, migrantad ver CaiTvleba.

sazRvris gadamkveT pirTa mxolod mcire wili modis maTze, vinc mudmivad an erT welze meti xangrZlivobiT Semodis an gadis qveynidan. swored isini SeiZleba iyvnen migrantebi da migraciuli saldo maTi gaTvaliswinebiT SeiZleba iqnas gaangariSebuli.

sazRvris gadamkveT pirTa qveyanaSi Semosvlis an gasvlis xangrZlivobis struqtura iseTi SeiZleba iyos, rom uaryofiTi saldo damaxasiaTebeli iyos mudmivad da erT welze meti droiT wasuli pirebisaTvis, xolo dadebiTi gamodiodes 3 Tvemde xangrZlivobaze. vinaidan 3 Tvemde xangrZlivobaze yvelaze meti wili modis, saerTo jamSi sxvaoba dadebiTi iqneba.

motanili pirobiTi magaliTia, magram erTi ram naTelia, rom martooden saerTo maCveneblebiT operireba, Semosvla-gasvlis xangrZlivobis struqturis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe, dauSvebelia.

amdenad, statistikis departamentis mier gavrcelebuli monacemebi `migraciuli saldosaTvis~ 2005 wels _ 76, 3 aTasi, xolo 2004 wlisaTvis _ 5, 5 aTasi, migraciul saldod ver CaiTvleba.

isic aRsaniSnavia, rom TviT statistikis departamentis monacemebiT gare migraciis saldo 2005 wels uaryofiTi iyo da 334-s Seadgenda. es ricxvi udavod mcirea da ver asaxavs realur viTarebas. gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo gacilebiT meti unda iyos... da mainc Tavisi simciris miuxedavad, uaryofiTia da ara dadebiTi.

amasTan sakiTxavia, Tu ratom moxda gadaangariSeba sazRvris dacvis departamentis monacemebis gamoyenebis safuZvelze mxolod 2004-2005 wlebisaTvis?

ratom iqna ucvlelad datovebuli 2004 wlis saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba?

2002 wlis ianvarSi Catarda mosaxleobis sayovelTao aRwera. iTvleba, rom aRweris monacemebi yvelaze sandoa.

sazRvris dacvis departaments gaaCnia monacemebi 2002 da 2003 wlebisaTvisac. am monacemebiT sxvaoba Semosulebsa da gasulebs Soris

108

uaryofiTi iyo da 2002 wels -40, 1 aTasi, xolo 2003 wels -32, 2 aTasi Seadgina. amis gaTvaliswinebiT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 2004, 2005 da 2006 wlebSi ver iqneboda iseTi, rogorc amas uTiTebs statistikis departamenti.

statistikis departamentis mier cifrebisa da wlebis mimarT aRniSnuli “seleqciuri midgoma” mizanSewonili ar aris. amasTan, igi aSkara gavlenas axdens qveynis demografiuli viTarebis sworad Sefasebaze.

109

2.8. erovnuli Semadgenloba (1959-2006 wlebi) da eTnodemografiuli procesebi

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis erovnulma Semadgenlobam 1959-2006 wlebSi mniSvnelovani cvlileba ganicada.

zogadi kanonzomiereba is iyo, rom 1959-1989 wlebSi saqarTvelos mTel mosaxleobaSi izrdeboda qarTvelebis absoluturi raodenoba da wili. 1990-ian wlebSi ZiriTadad gare migraciis gavleniTa da aseve bunebrivi matebis Semcirebis Sedegad araqarTvelebis absoluturi raodenoba mcirdeba. imave dros matulobs qarTvelebis wili, rac ZiriTadad sxva erovnebebis gare migraciis meti intensivobiT iyo gamowveuli qarTvelebTan SedarebiT. 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT qarTvelebis wili 83, 8%-mde gaizarda, maSin rodesac 1989 wels mxolod 70, 1% iyo. 13 wlis ganmavlobaSi qarTvelebis wili saqarTveloSi TiTqmis igive odenobiT gaizarda, rac wina 30 wlis (1959-1989) ganmavlobaSi. amasTan, qarTvelebis wili saqarTvelos mosaxleobaSi matebas ganagrZobs.

diagrama 2..42. qarTvelebis wili (%) saqarTvelos mTel mosaxleobaSi 1959-2007 ww.

64.366.8

68.8 70.1

83.8 84.3

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2007

%

1959-2002 ww. _ sd monacemebiT; 2007 w. _ SefasebiTi monacemebiT

wyaro: danarTi 1, cxrili 17.

qvemoT motanil diagramaze (2.43) naCvenebia 1989 welTan SedarebiT 2002 wels, Tu ra wili (%) Seadgina saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi sxadasxva erovnebis mosaxleobam. amasTan, vinaidan 2002 wels mosaxleobis erovnuli Semadgenloba warmodgenilia afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis gareSe, amitom, SedarebisaTvis 1989 wlis mosaxleoba, Sesabamisi gaangariSebisas, aseve iTvaliswinebs erovnul Semadgenlobas afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis ao gareSe.

rogorc vxedavT, 2002 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT gaizarda afxazebisa da qarTvelebis raodenoba. afxazebis raodenoba saqarTveloSi afxazeTis gareT 1989 wels mcire iyo da sul 2, 6 aTass Seadgenda. rogorc Cans, qarTul-afxazuri konfliqtis Semdeg afxazebis mcire nawilma (1000 kacamde) datova afxazeTi da gansaxlda saqarTvelos sxva teritoriebze.

qarTvelebis SemTxvevaSi mateba ganpirobebuli iyo im garemoebiT, rom aRniSnuli konfliqtis Sedegad afxazeTi ZaldatanebiT daatovebines 280 aTasze met qarTvels da isini gansaxldnen saqarTvelos sxva teritoriebze.

110

diagrama 2.43. saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi erovnebebis mosaxleobis wili (%) 2002 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT (1989 w. = 100%)

7.715.517.217.8

25.638.9

55.069.2

92.6104.0 134.6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

belorusebi

ebraelebi

ukrainelebi

berZnebi

rusebi

osebi

qurTebi da ezidebi

somxebi

azerbaijanelebi

qarTvelebi

afxazebi


2002 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT, saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi yvela sxva erovnebis raodenobis, klebas hqonda adgili.

maT Soris, wilobrividan gamomdinare, yvelaze naklebad Semcirda azerbaijanelebis da Semdeg somxebis raodenoba.

yvelaze mniSvnelovani kleba ganicades belorusebma, xolo Semdeg ebraelebma, ukrainelebma da berZnebma.

sakmaod arsebiTi iyo rusebis kleba, romlebic 2002 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT 4-jer Semcirdnen.

zemoT aRniSnuls mohyva sxvadasxva erovnebis mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis cvlileba. 2002 wlisaTvis saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebis asakobriv-sqesobrivi piramidebi motanilia diagramaze 2.44.

diagrama 2.44. saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebis asakobriv-sqesobrivi piramida 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris mixedviT

qarTvelebi

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

%

mamakacebi qalebi

azerbaijanelebi

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12%

mamakacebi qalebi

111

wyaro: saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRweris

ZiriTadi Sedegebi. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2004, gv. 65-75.

qarTvelebisa da somxebis asakobrivi struqtura stacionaruli tipisaa. azerbaijanelebis asakobrivi struqtura progresuli tipis, magram igrZnoba stacionarul tipze gadasvla, razec 0-9 asakobrivi jgufis wili migvaniSnebs. saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi rusebis asakobrivi Semadgenloba gamoxatuli regresuli tipis xasiaTs atarebs.

15 wlamde asakisa da demografiuli daberebis TvalsazrisiT saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebi mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdebian erTmaneTisagan.

diagrama 2.45. saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebis 15 wlamde da 65 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wili (%) 2002 wels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30%

-15 20.9 19.8 8.4 27.1

65+ 12.6 15.3 24.8 7.8

qarTvelebi somxebi rusebi azerbaijanelebi

wyaro: saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRweris

ZiriTadi Sedegebi. statistikuri krebuli. saqarTvelos statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. Tbilisi, 2004, gv. 65-75.

rogorc vxedavT axalgazrda mosaxleobis Semadgenloba axasiaTebT azerbaijanelebs. maTTvis, sxva erovnebebTan SedarebiT (qurTebisa da iezidebis garda), yvelaze naklebia demografiuli daberebis done.

somxebi

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

%

rusebi

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12%

mamakacebi qalebimamakacebi qalebi

112

axalgazrda mosaxleobis wili yvelaze naklebia saqarTveloSi mcxovreb rusebSi da Sesabamisad maTTan yvelaze maRalia demografiuli daberebis done.

qarTvelebsa da somxebs, demografiuli daberebis TvalsazrisiT, azerbaijanelebsa da rusebs Soris Sualeduri adgili ukaviaT, Tumca somxebis demografiuli daberebis done ramdenadme metia qarTvelebTan SedarebiT.

1989 wels azerbaijanelebis Sobadoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze mniSvnelovnad maRali iyo saqarTveloSi mcxovreb xalxmraval erovnebaTa Soris, xolo rusebis _ yvelaze dabali. amave dros rusebis mokvdaobis saerTo done yvelaze maRali iyo, xolo azerbaijanelebis _ yvelaze dabali. ukve 1989 wels rusebis mokvdaoba aRemateboda Sobadobas da amdenad, bunebriv klebas hqonda adgili. azerbaijanelebis bunebrivi mateba Zalian maRali iyo da 3-jer aRemateboda qarTvelebis bunebriv matebas. somxebis Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis done ramdenadme meti iyo qarTvelebTan SedarebiT, iseve rogorc bunebrivi mateba.

2005 wlisaTvis saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi yvela erovnebis Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis da Sesabamisad bunebrivi matebis doneebma mniSvnelovani cvlileba ganicades.

aRniSnulis gaTvaliswinebiT Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis done saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebisaTvis Semdegnairad gamoiyureba (ix. diagrama 2.46).

2005 wels 1989 welTan SedarebiT, yvela erovnebisaTvis Semcirda rogorc Sobadobis, ise mokvdaobis done mosaxleobis 1000 sulze, rasac mohyva bunebrivi matebis klebac, romelic sami xalxmravali erovnebisaTvis _ qarTvelebisaTvis, somxebisa da rusebisaTvis uaryofiTi aRmoCnda, anu mokvdaobis sididem gadaaWarba Sobadobas, gansakuTrebiT rusebis SemTxvevaSi. azerbaijanelebis SemTxvevaSi Sobadobis mniSvnelovani klebisa da mokvdaobis ramdenadme zrdis miuxedavad bunebriv matebas hqonda adgili, Tumca is TiTqmis 2-jer naklebi iyo, vidre 1989 wels.

diagrama 2.46. Sobadoba da mokvdaoba (‰) saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebisaTvis 1989 da 2005 ww.

1989 2005

05

101520253035

qarTvel

ebi

somxebi

rusebi

azer

bai

jan

elebi

qarTvel

ebi

somxebi

rusebi

azer

bai

jan

eleb

i

‰

Sobadoba

mokvdaoba


Sobadobaze erovnebebis mixedviT garkveul warmodgenas iZleva saqarTveloSi 2002 wels Catarebuli mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegebi, sadac

113

dadgenil iqna gaTxovili qalebis bavSvebis mosalodneli raodenoba, romelic Cvens SemTxvevaSi gadaangariSebulia saSualod 1 qalze.

diagrama 2.47. saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi sxvadasxva erovnebebis gaTxovili qalebis mier dasaxelebuli bavSvebis mosalodneli raodenoba 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris mixedviT

2.3 2.4

2.7

2.12.3 2.2

2.5

2.1

1.51.71.92.12.32.52.72.9

qarTvelebi

somxebi

azer

baij

anel

ebi

rusebi

osebi

berZnebi

qurTebi

da

iezid

ebi

ukr

ainelebi


Sedegebi. t. I. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 156.

qarTveli gaTxovili qalebis bavSvebis saSualo mosalodneli raodenoba msgavsia qveynisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli bavSvebis saSualo mosalodneli raodenobis. amasTan, is naklebia, azerbaijanelebis, qurTebisa da iezidebisa da somxebis mier dasaxelebuli bavSvebis mosalodnel raodenobaze. aRsaniSnavia, rom mxolod azerbaijanelebis bavSvebis saSualo mosalodneli raodenoba uzrunvelyofs mosaxleobis gafarToebul aRwarmoebas mcire zomiT. yvelaze mcirea rusebisa da ukrainelebis bavSvebis mosalodneli raodenoba.

Cven SesaZlebloba gvaqvs SevadaroT saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebis bavSvebis saSualo mosalodneli raodenoba, romelic daasaxeles gaTxovilma qalebma 1980 wels da 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRwerisas.

diagrama 2.48. saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi sxvadasxva erovnebebis gaTxovili qalebis mier dasaxelebuli bavSvebis mosalodneli raodenoba 1980 da 2002 ww.

2.42.5

2.0

3.0

2.32.4

2.1

2.7

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

qarTvelebi somxebi rusebi azerbaijanelebi

da qurTebi

1980 2002

wyaro: 1980 w. _ g. wulaZe. Sobadobis sociologiis sakiTxebi. Tbilisi, 1984, gv. 113;

2002 w. _ saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli erovnuli sayovelTao aRweris Sedegebi. t. I. Tbilisi, 2003, gv. 156.

114

rogorc vxedavT, qarTvelebisa da somxebis bavSvebis saSualo mosalodneli raodenoba 2002 wels 1980 welTan SedarebiT umniSvnelod Semcirda, xolo rusebis _ umniSvnelod gaizarda. yvelaze mniSvnelovani kleba ganicada azerbaijanelebisa da qurTebis bavSvebis mosalodneli raodenobam. amdenad, SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom ganvlil 22 weliwadSi, qarTvelebis, somxebisa da rusebis bavSvebis mosalodneli raodenoba umniSvnelod Seicvala da praqtikulad dastabilizirda dabal doneze, romelic sakmarisi ar aris mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis.

2006 wlis monacemebiT qarTvelebisa da azerbaijanelebis didi umravlesoba (Sesabamisad 98, 8% da 96,2%) qorwindeboda Tavisive erovnebis warmomadgenelze. rusi qalebis 20%-mde qorwindeboda qarTvel mamakacebze, xolo somxebSi aseTebis wili 8, 6% iyo (ix. danarTi 1, cxrili 19).

amdenad, saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi xalxmravali erovnebebisaTvis sxvadasxva zomiT, magram ZiriTadad damaxasiaTebeli iyo erTerovnuli qorwinebebi.

115

3. saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi

mosaxleobis raodenobis, misi Semadgenlobisa da sxvadasxva demografiuli maCveneblis perspeqtiuli gaangariSebebi aucilebelia saxelmwifos marTvisaTvis; politikuri, socialuri, ekonomikuri da demografiuli politikis SemuSavebisa da ganxorcielebisaTvis.

amdenad, saerTaSoriso standartebsa da uaxles statistikur monacemebze dafuZnebul prognozebs mniSvnelovani roli eniWeba saqarTvelos ganviTarebis strategiebis SemuSavebaSi, kerZod axal aTaswleulSi mosaxleobis ganviTarebis optimaluri politikis danergvaSi67.

demografiul prognozs miRebuli normebiT garkveul moTxovnebs uyeneben. Cveulebriv aucilebelia prognozis warmodgena sami variantiT _ dabali (pesimisturi), saSualo da maRali (optimisturi). amasTan, arsebobs garkveuli nusxa, romelic prognozirebisas unda iyos gaTvaliswinebuli, rasac gaeros standartebiT miekuTvneba: mosaxleobis raodenoba, misi asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenloba, mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis warmodgena sxvadasxva saxis asakobrivi dajgufebiT da mTeli rigi demografiuli maCveneblebi.

gaeros eqspertebis perspeqtiuli gaangariSebebi msoflios qveynebisaTvis, maT Soris saqarTvelosaTvis, keTdeba da qveyndeba yovelwliurad.

qarTveli demografebis mier saqarTvelos mosaxleobisa da sxva demografiuli maCveneblebis perspeqtiuli gaangariSebebi, saerTaSoriso standartebis gaTvaliswinebiT pirvelad 2001 wels Sesrulda68. Semdgomi gadasinjva 2002 wels moxda69. bolo gadasinjva ki 2003 wels Sesrulda70.

am nawilis ZiriTadi mizania, axali monacemebidan gamomdinare, saerTaSoriso standartebis gaTvaliswinebiT, warmovadginoT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobisa da ZiriTadi demografiuli maCveneblebis 2050 wlis CaTvliT gaangariSebuli prognozis analizi.

amasTan, perspeqtiul gaangariSebebSi gamoiyeneba saqarTvelos mosaxleoba afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis mosaxleobis CaTvliT. afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis mosaxleobis raodenoba 2005 wlisaTvis miCneulia 220 aTasad.

amjerad motanilia 2005-2050 wlebis periodis prognozis mxolod saSualo varianti. mocemul SemTxvevaSi Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi da Sesabamisad Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti ucvlelad aris miCneuli. sawyisad aRebulia 2005 wlis SefasebiTi monacemebi71.

3.1. mosaxleoba

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobas mTeli saprognozo periodis ganmavlobaSi mudmivi Semcirebis tendencia gaaCnia da 2050 wlisaTvis mcirdeba 3386 aTasamde, anu 2005 welTan SedarebiT daiklebs 734 aTasiT (ix.

67 G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Population Prospects of Georgia. The 2003 Revision. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2003, p. 7. 68 G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze. Population Prospects of Georgia. Tbilisi, 2001. 69 G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia. 2001. Tbilisi, 2002, pp. 171-173. 70 G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Population Prospects of Georgia. The 2003 Revision. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2003. 71 wyaro: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia. 2006. UNFPA Tbilisi, 2007.

116

diagrama 3.1). prognozis saSualo variantisagan gansxvavebiT prognozis dabali

variantiT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba kidev 300 aTasiT naklebi iqneba.

demografiuli prognozirebis praqtikidan gamomdinare, prognozis maRali variantis realizeba naklebad SesaZlebelia, Tumca mis SemTxvevaSi 2050 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba prognozis saSualo variantTan SedarebiT daaxloebiT 400 aTasiT meti iqneba. miuxedavad amisa, prognozis maRali variantidan gamomdinare saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobas mainc klebis tendencia eqneba da 2050 wlisaTvis mainc imaze naklebi iqneba, vidre 2005 wels iyo.

diagrama 3.1. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba (aTasi) 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

aTas

i

wyaro: danarTi 2, cxrili 2.1.

zemoT motanili diagramidan naTelia, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba Semcirebebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba. amasTan, 2030 wlamde aRniSnuli kleba sakmaod maRalia da saSualod weliwadSi 20 aTass aRemateba, Tumca 2005 wlidan misi sidide klebulobs.

2005-2050 wlebis periodis ZiriTadi damaxasiaTebeli tendencia iqneba 15 wlamde asakis mosaxleobis wilis Semcireba da 65 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wilis zrda.

diagrama 3.2. 15 wlamde da 65 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wilis (%) cvlileba saqarTveloSi 2005-2050 ww.

19.218.7 18.3 18.0

17.5 17.217.9

18.619.6

21.2

16.615.515.816.116.2

16.716.316.015.715.3

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

%

-15 65+

wyaro: n. maRlaferiZe, g. wulaZe saqarTvelos demografiuli perspeqtivebi. 2008

wlis gadasinjva. Tbilisi, 2008 (xelnaweri).

117

gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani iqneba demografiuli daberebis procesi. 2050 wlisaTvis, dRevandelTan SedarebiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleoba kidev ufro daberebuli aRmoCndeba.

yovelive zemoT aRniSnuli ki arsebiTad gansazRvravs saqarTvelos mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis mniSvnelovan cvlilebas.

diagrama 3.3. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis asakobriv-sqesobrivi piramida 2005 da 2050 ww., aTasi (prognozis saSualo varianti)

wyaro: n. maRlaferiZe, g. wulaZe saqarTvelos demografiuli perspeqtivebi. 2008 wlis gadasinjva. Tbilisi, 2008 (xelnaweri).

rogorc motanili diagramidan gamomdinareobs 2005 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleobis stacionarul tips 2050 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos mosaxleobis regresuli tipi Caenacvleba. aRsaniSnavia, rom prognozis saSualo variantiT ukve 2030 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleobas regresuli saxe eqneba, xolo Semdgom periodSi regresuli tipi kidev ufro gamoxatul saxes miiRebs.

2025 wlis CaTvliT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis formirebis ZiriTadi komponenti gare migracia iqneba, xolo mis Semdeg _ bunebrivi kleba.

3.2. Sobadoba

miuxedavad imisa, rom prognozis saSualo variantiT, Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi da Sesabamisad Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti mTeli saprognozo periodis ganmavlobaSi ucvlelad iqna miCneuli, dabadebulTa raodenobas saqarTveloSi Semcirebis tendencia eqneba, rac ZiriTadad fertiluri asakis qalebis raodenobis mudmivi SemcirebiT iqneba ganpirobebuli.

prognozis Tanaxmad 2050 wlisaTvis mxolod 37 aTasi cocxlad dabadebuli bavSvia mosalodneli, anu 2005 welTan SedarebiT 15 aTasi bavSviT naklebi daibadeba.

aseve klebis tendencia iqneba damaxasiaTebeli Sobadobis zogadi koeficientisaTvis. 2050 wels 2005 welTan SedarebiT Sobadoba 2‰-iT Semcirdeba. aRniSnuli gacilebiT ufro TvalsaCino iqneboda, rom ara saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis Semcireba.

200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+mamakacebi qalebi mamakacebi qalebi

2005 2050

118

diagrama 3.4. dabadebulTa raodenoba (aTasi) da Sobadoba (‰) saqarTveloSi 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)

wyaro: danarTi 2. cxrili 2.1.


saqarTveloSi, 2005-2050 wlebSi, gardacvlilTa mosalodneli raodenoba weliwadSi 52-54 aTasis farglebSi varirebs.

imave dros mokvdaoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze ganuxrelad gaizrdeba, rasac ZiriTadad demografiuli daberebis procesis zrda gansazRvravs. 2040 wlidan mokvdaoba 15‰-es gadaaWarbebs da zrda Semdgom periodSic gagrZledeba.

diagrama 3.5. mokvdaoba (‰) saqarTveloSi 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)

12 13 14 15 16

2005201020152020202520302035204020452050


CvilTa mokvdaobisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli iqneba klebis tendencia. aRniSnuli tendencia gulisxmobs CvilTa mokvdaobis TandaTanobiT Semcirebas. 2050 wlisaTvis CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti TiTqmis 2, 5-jer naklebi iqneba, vidre 2005 wels.

CvilTa mokvdaobis paralelurad Semcirdeba aseve 5 wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaoba. aRsaniSnavia is garemoeba, rom sxvaoba 5 wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaobasa da CvilTa mokvdaobas Soris droTa ganmavlobaSi Semcirdeba da minimums 2040 wlisaTvis miaRwevs.

dabadebulTa raodenoba

30

35

40

45

50

55

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

aTasi

Sobadoba (‰)

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

119

diagrama 3.6. 5 wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaobisa da CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi (1000 cocxlad dabadebulze) saqarTveloSi 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

5 wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaoba

CvilTa mokvdaoba


rac Seexeba dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobas. rogorc mamakacebis, ise qalebis SemTxvevaSi mas zrdis tendencia gaaCnia. amasTan, 2050 wlisaTvis mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba 2005 welTan SedarebiT daaxloebiT 7, 5 wliT gaizrdeba da gansxvaveba qalebisa da mamakacebis sicocxlis mosalodnel xangrZlivobaSi 7, 3-dan 5 wlamde Semcirdeba.

diagrama 3.7. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas saqarTveloSi 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)

6062646668707274767880

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mamakacebi

qalebi



2010 wlisaTvis mokvdaoba ukve mniSvnelovnad gadaaWarbebs Sobadobas da amdenad bunebrivi gziT mosaxleobis raodenobis mateba klebiT Seicvleba, anu depopulacia sruli saxiT warmogvidgeba. aRniSnuli procesi kidev ufro gamoxatul xasiaTs miiRebs 2010 wlis Semdeg da droTa ganmavlobaSi sxvaoba mokvdaobasa da Sobadobas Soris kidev ufro gaizrdeba. 2045 wlidan, prognozis saSualo variantiT, saSualod weliwadSi, saqarTvelos mosaxleoba, bunebrivi gziT, dakargavs 16 aTas adamians, rac mosaxleobis 1000 sulze 4, 7 Seadgens.

120

diagrama 3.8. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis bunebrivi mateba 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)


Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebis ucvlelobis SemTxvevaSi, prognozis saSualo variantiT, mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis bruto koeficienti mudmivi iqneba da 2005-2050 wlebisaTvis 0, 84 Seadgens, anu momdevno Taobebi winas mxolod 84%-iT ganaaxlebs. aRniSnuli mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecili reJimis damkvidrebaze migviTiTebs, romelic didi xnis ganmavlobaSi iqneba gabatonebuli.

rac Seexeba mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficients, misi sidide umniSvnelod, magram droTa ganmavlobaSi, mainc gaizrdeba, rac mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiurobis gaumjobesebidan gamomdinareobs.

diagrama 3.9. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis bruto da neto koeficientebis dinamika saqarTveloSi 2005-2050 ww. (prognozis saSualo varianti)

0.800.800.810.810.820.820.830.830.840.840.85

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

mosaxleobis aRwarmoebisbruto koeficienti

mosaxleobis aRwarmoebisneto koeficienti


2005 wels mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba 1, 037 iyo, xolo 2040 wlisaTvis mosalodnelia 1, 012, anu dedaTa Taobis SenacvlebisaTvis erTi qalis mier naklebi gogos gaCena iqneba saWiro, miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTveloSi am droisaTvis damkvidrebuli iqneba mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecili reJimi.

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

aTas

i

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050‰

121

4. saqarTvelo da msoflio

4.1. mosaxleoba

2007 wels msoflios mosaxleobis raodenobam 6 miliard 625 milions gadaaWarba. aqedan, ganviTarebul qveynebSi cxovrobda 1 miliard 221 milioni, xolo naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi _ 5 miliard 404 milioni, anu msoflios mosaxleobis 18, 4% ganviTarebul, xolo 81, 6% _ ganviTarebad qveynebSi cxovrobda72.

2007 wlis dasawyisSi, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobas _ 3, 8 milioni (SefasebiTi monacemebiT), Tu 4, 4 milioni (statistikis departamentis monacemebiT) msoflio mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobaSi umniSvnelo wili (0, 06-0, 07%) ukavia (qvemoT, saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi gamoyenebuli iqneba SefasebiTi monacemebi).

aRsaniSnavia, rom TiTqmis 60 wlis ganmavlobaSi (2007 wels 1950 welTan SedarebiT) msoflios mosaxleobis raodenoba 2, 6-jer, maSin rodesac igive dros saqarTvelos mosaxleoba mxolod 1, 1-jer gaizarda. mxolod 2007 wels 1975 welTan SedarebiT msoflios mosaxleoba 1, 6-jer gaizarda da 2, 5 miliardze metiT moimata. igive periodSi saqarTvelos mosaxleoba 1 milionze metiT Semcirda.

diagrama 4.1. msoflios mosaxleobis dinamika 1950-2050 ww.

2.535

4.076

6.625

7.965

9.294

0123456789

10

1950 1975 2007 2025 2050

miliardi

wyaro: 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007; World

Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007. 2025, 2050 ww. _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

yvela prognozuli gaangariSebiT msoflio mosaxleobis raodenoba izrdeba da 2050 wlisaTvis 9 miliards gadaaWarbebs. igive periodSi, sxvadasxva prognoziT, mosalodnelia saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis _ 3, 0-3, 2 milionamde Semcireba 73.

msoflios or qveyanaSi CineTsa da indoeTSi ukve 2007 wels mosaxleobis raodenoba aRemateboda 1 miliards (CineTi _ 1, 329 miliardi, indoeTi _ 1, 169 miliardi). momavalSi dasaxelebuli qveynebis mosaxleoba moimatebs, amasTan, CineTTan SedarebiT indoeTSi ufro metad da 2050 wlisaTvis indoeTi 1, 658 miliardiani mosaxleobiT yvelaze xalxmravali iqneba (CineTi _ 1, 409 miliardi)74.

72 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007. 73 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007; World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, p. 43. 74 World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, p. 47.

122

cxrili 4.1. zogierTi qveynis mosaxleobis raodenoba 2007 da 2050 ww.

qveyana

2007 wlis mosaxleobis raodenoba (milioni)

2050 wlis mosaxleobis raodenoba (milioni)

sxvaoba (milioni)

sxvaoba (%)

CineTi 1328.6 1408.8 80.2 6.0 indoeTi 1169.0 1658.3 489.3 41.9 aSS 305.8 402.4 96.6 31.6 ruseTi 142.5 107.8 -34.7 -24.4 ukraina 46.2 30.9 -15.3 -33.1 saqarTvelo 3.8 3.1 -0.7 -18.4 somxeTi 3.0 2.5 -0.5 -16.7 azerbaijani 8.5 9.4 0.9 10.6 latvia 2.3 1.8 -0.5 -21.7 litva 3.4 2.7 -0.7 -20.6 estoneTi 1.3 1.1 -0.2 -15.4 TurqeTi 74.9 98.9 24.0 32.0 irani 71.2 100.2 29.0 40.7 iaponia 128.0 102.5 -25.5 -19.9 germania 82.6 74.1 -8.5 -10.3 safrangeTi 61.6 68.2 6.6 10.7 gaerTianebuli samefo 60.8 68.7 7.9 13.0

wyaro: World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, pp. 42-46. 2050 w. _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

rogorc motanili cxrilidan Cans msoflios yvela qveyanaSi aRiniSneba mosaxleobis raodenobrivi cvlileba _ erTi mxriv mosaxleobis mateba-klebis TvalsazrisiT, meore mxriv _ mateba-klebis intensivobiT.

samxreT kavkasiaSi _ saqarTvelosa da somxeTSi _ mosaxleobis raodenoba klebulobs, xolo azerbaijanSi _ izrdeba. 2007 wlisaTvis samxreT kavkasiis mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobaSi saqarTvelos mosaxleobis wili 24, 8% iyo, somxeTis _ 19, 6%, xolo azerbaijanis _ 55, 6%. 2050 wlisaTvis saqarTvelosa da somxeTis mosaxleobis wili klebulobs Sesabamisad 20, 7% da 16, 7%-mde, xolo azerbaijanis mosaxleobis wili izrdeba 62, 6%-mde.

baltiispireTis qveynebSi, ruseTisa da ukrainaSi mosaxleobis raodenoba mniSvnelovnad Semcirdeba.

mosaxleobis raodenoba mniSvnelovnad moimatebs iransa da TurqeTSi. momavalSi icvleba ara marto mosaxleobis raodenoba, aramed

mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqturac. msoflioSi ZiriTadi tendencia iqneba axalgazrda mosaxleobis

wilis Semcireba da demografiuli daberebis zrda. 15 wlamde asakis mosaxleobis wili 28, 3%-dan (2005 w.) 2050 wlisaTvis 19, 8%-mde Semcirdeba. imave dros 60 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wili 10, 3%-dan 21, 8%-mde gaizrdeba, anu 2050 wlisaTvis msoflio mosaxleobis daberebis done 2-jer gaizrdeba da Zalian maRali iqneba.

bunebrivia, rom demografiuli daberebis TvalsazrisiT qveynebi mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisagan (ix. diagrama 4.2).

2050 wlisaTvis daberebis Zalian maRal dones miaRwevs iaponia. iranisa da TurqeTisaTvis, ise rogorc azerbaijanisaTvis 2005 wels

e. rosetis skaliT Sesabamisad demografiuli siymawvile da siberis pirveli karibWe iyo damaxasiaTebeli. momavalSi aRniSnuli qveynebis

123

mosaxleobis mniSvnelovani daberebis Sedegad 2050 wlisaTvis daberebis done Zalian maRali iqneba.

diagrama 4.2. 60 wlisa da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wili 2005 da 2050 ww. zogierT qveyanaSi

20.3

14.5

9.3

17.1

20.6

22.4

20.3

21.6

8.2

6.4

26.4

25.1

20.8

21.2

11.0

7.5

16.6

3.7

34.9

33.9

27.6

32.4

36.6

37.3

36.2

33.2

24.5

25.6

44.0

37.0

31.8

30.1

31.1

20.2

26.85.6

0 10 20 30 40 50

saqarTvelo

somxeTi

azerbaijani

ruseTi

ukraina

latvia

litva

estoneTi

TurqeTi

irani

iaponia

germania

safrangeTi

gaerT. samefo

CineTi

indoeTi

aSS

avRaneTi

%

20502005

wyaro: World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, pp. 59-63.

2050 w. _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis zrdis miuxedavad 2050 wlisaTvis avRaneTis mosaxleobis asakobrivi Semadgenloba msoflioSi gamorCeuli iqneba rogorc yvelaze axalgazrduli.

4.2. Sobadoba

2007 wels msoflioSi mosaxleobis 1000 sulze saSualod 21 bavSvi ibadeboda. Sobadobis TvalsazrisiT mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda ganviTarebuli da naklebad ganviTarebuli qveynebi. ganviTarebul qveynebSi mosaxleobis 1000 sulze saSualod 11 bavSvi ibadeboda, xolo naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi _ 2-jer meti _ 23 bavSvi75. SegaxsenebT, rom aRniSnuli maCvenebeli 2006 wels saqarTveloSi 13‰-is toli iyo da amdenad, axlos imyofeboda ganviTarebuli qveynebis analogiur maCvenebelTan.

bunebrivia, rom Sobadobis done mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda calkeuli qveynebis mixedviT.

maRali SobadobiT gamoirCeva afrikis kontinenti (saSualod 38‰), gansakuTrebiT centraluri afrika (saSualod 46‰), xolo dabali SobadobiT _ evropa (saSualod 10‰).

evropis msxvil qveynebs Sorisac garkveuli gansxvaveba arsebobs. safrangeTSi Sobadoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze _ 13 _ marTalia

75 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007, p. 7.

124

mTlianobaSi dabalia, magram gacilebiT metia germaniasTan SedarebiT da aRemateba evropis qveynebis saSualo maCvenebels.

diagrama 4.3. Sobadoba (‰) msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi 2007 wels

505050

4712

249

138

12101010

911

1315

18

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

gvinea-bisau

liberia

kongo (dem. resp.)

avRaneTi

CineTi

indoeTi

iaponia

safrangeTi

germania

gaerT. samefo

ruseTi

ukraina

latvia

litva

estoneTi

saqarTvelo

somxeTi

azerbaijani

‰

wyaro: 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007.

CineTSi Sobadoba 2-jer dabalia indoeTTan SedarebiT, xolo indoeTSi aseve 2-jer dabalia, vidre avRaneTSi. aziis qveynebidan dabali SobadobiT gamoirCeva iaponia.

ruseTsa da ukrainaSi Sobadoba sakmaod dabalia da saSualo evropul donezea.

aseve dabalia Sobadobis done baltiispireTis qveynebSi. samxreT kavkasiaSi saqarTveloSi Sobadobis yvelaze dabali done

SeimCneva. Sobadobis SedarebiT maRali done azerbaijanisaTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli.

qvemoT motanilia Sobadobis ufro zusti maCvenebeli _ Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti da amasTan sadReisod arsebul mdgomareobasTan erTad naCvenebia misi SesaZlebeli cvlileba 2045-2050 wlebisaTvis.

2007 wlisaTvis Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti saSualod msoflioSi 2, 7-is toli iyo. amasTan, ganviTarebul qveynebSi is saSualod 1, 6-s Seadgenda, rac sakmarisi ar aris mosaxleobis martivi aRwarmoebisaTvis. evropis mTel rig qveynebSi (fineTi, germania, luqsemburgi, Sveicaria, islandia, SvedeTi, kroatia, dania, litva, avstria, belgia, niderlandebi, gaerTianebuli samefo) ukve 1970-1975 wlebSi Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti mosaxleobis Sekvecil aRwarmoebaze migvaniSnebda. imave dros iemenSi, ruandasa da nigerSi Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti 8-s aRemateboda. marTalia 2007 wlisaTvis aRniSnuli maCvenebeli yvela im qveyanaSi Semcirda, sadac is Zalian maRali iyo, magram zogierT qveyanaSi is sakmaod maRal doneze rCeboda. mag., nigerSi 2007 wels erTi qalis mier cxovrebis ganmavlobaSi gaCenili bavSvebis raodenoba 7-s aRemateboda. 2045-2050 wlebisaTvis Zalian maRali

125

Sobadobis mqone qveynebisaTvis mosalodnelia Sobadobis mniSvnelovani Semcireba _ zog SemTxvevaSi 2 da metjer76.

diagrama 4.4. Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti zogierT qveyanaSi

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

niger

i

burundi

liber

ia

avRaneT

i

CineT

i

indoeT

i

iaponia

saf

ran

geT

i

ger

mania

gaerT.

samef

o

ruseT

i

ukr

aina

lat

via

litva

estoneT

i

saqar

Tvel

o

somx

eTi

azer

baijani

20072045-2050

wyaro: 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007; World

Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, pp. 72-76. 2045-2050 _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

amave dros Zalian dabali Sobadobis mqone qveynebisaTvis mosalodnelia Sobadobis ramdenadme zrda.


msoflioSi, mosaxleobis 1000 sulze, 2007 wels 9 adamiani gardaicvala. amasTan, ganviTarebul qveynebSi mokvdaoba saSualod 10‰ iyo, xolo naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi _ 8‰77. mokvdaobis SedarebiT maRali done ganviTarebul qveynebSi naklebad ganviTarebadTan SedarebiT ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia demografiuli daberebiT.

msoflios calkeuli qveynebi sakmaod gansxvavdebian erTmaneTisagan mokvdaobis doniT. TviT afrikaSi, zambiasa da angolaSi yvelaze maRalia mokvdaoba, xolo yvelaze dabali _ alJirsa da libiaSi (ix. diagrama 4.5). aseTi gansxvaveba ganpirobebulia imiT, rom angolasa da zambiaSi Zalian maRalia CvilTa mokvdaoba, romelic alJirsa da libiaSi maTTan SedarebiT mniSvnelovnad dabalia.

kuveitsa da bahreinSi mosaxleobis 1000 sulze mokvdaoba msoflioSi yvelaze dabalia. aseT mdgomareobas dasaxelebul qveynebSi axalgazrda mosaxleobasTan erTad ganapirobebda sakmaod dabali CvilTa mokvdaoba.

ruseTsa da ukrainaSi mokvdaobis saerTo done sakmaod maRalia. maTTan SedarebiT mokvdaoba ramdenadme naklebia baltiispira qveynebSi, sadac mokvdaobis zrdas ZiriTadad demografiuli daberebis maRali donec ganapirobebs.

76 wyaro: World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, p. 70. 77 wyaro: 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007.

126

diagrama 4.5. mokvdaoba (‰) msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi 2007 wels

4

22

3

2

9

10

10

15

16

14

13

13

13

9

6

0 5 10 15 20 25

alJiri, libia

zambia, angola

bahreini

kuveiti

safrangeTi

germania

gaerT. samefo

ruseTi

ukraina

latvia

litva

estoneTi

saqarTvelo

somxeTi

azerbaijani


samxreT kavkasiaSi maRali mokvdaobis saerTo doniT saqarTvelo gamoirCeva. misgan gansxvavebiT azerbaijanSi mokvdaoba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze 2-jer naklebia, rac imiT aixsnas, rom azerbaijanSi saqarTvelosTan SedarebiT metia axalgazrda mosaxleobis wili da adgili ara aqvs demografiuli daberebis maRal dones. amasTan, Cveni SefasebiT, azerbaijanSi ise, rogor saqarTveloSi, adgili unda hqondes gardacvlilTa arasrul aRricxvas. am mosazrebas is garemoebac amtkicebs, rom gaeros eqspertebis SefasebiT 2005-2010 wlebSi CvilTa mokvdaoba azerbaijanSi 72-is farglebSi unda iyos78, maSin rodesac azerbaijanis oficialuri statistikiT 1000 cocxlad dabadebulze 10 bavSvi modis.

CvilTa mokvdaobis SemcirebaSi garkveuli miRwevebis miuxedavad is mainc sakmaod maRal doneze rCeba. 2007 wels saSualod msoflioSi 1000 cocxlad dabadebulze 52 Cvili kvdeboda. am mxriv sakmaod didi gansxvavebaa ganviTarebul da naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebs Soris. ganviTarebul qveynebSi CvilTa mokvdaoba 6-is, xolo naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi 57-is farglebSi iyo79.

CvilTa mokvdaobis yvelaze maRali done 2007 wels avRaneTSi aRiniSna da 2050 wlisaTvis 2-jer Semcirebis miuxedavad mainc Zalian maRal doneze darCeba. Zalian maRalia CvilTa mokvdaobis done siera leoneSi, angolasa da CadSi da mniSvnelovani Semcirebis miuxedavad 2050 wlisaTvis prognozis Tanaxmad mainc sakmaod maRali iqneba.

iaponiaSi, SvedeTsa da islandiaSi CvilTa mokvdaoba ukve 2007 wels iyo 3-ze naklebi iyo da ramdenadme kidev Semcirdeba 2050 wlisaTvis.

safrangeTSi, germaniasa da gaerTianebul samefoSi aseve dabali CvilTa mokvdaobaa, romelic 2050 wlisaTvis kidev ufro Semcirdeba.

78 World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, p. 83. 79 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007.

127

diagrama 4.6. CvilTa mokvdaoba msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi 2007 da 2045-2050 ww.

166

158

141

2.8

3.7

3.8

4.9

10

10

7.6

6.8

4.4

23

26

10

76

102

64

2.6

3.2

3.3

3

9

7.2

5.1

4.7

4.3

10

15

38

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

avRaneTi

siera leone

angola

iaponia

safrangeTi

germania

gaerT. samefo

ruseTi

ukraina

latvia

litva

estoneTi

saqarTvelo

somxeTi

azerbaijani

2045-20502007

wyaro: 2007 w. _ 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007.

2045-2050 ww. _ World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, pp. 83-86.

baltiispireTis qveynebSi, gansakuTrebiT estoneTSi, CvilTa mokvdaoba 2007 wels 8-ze naklebi iyo 1000 cocxlad dabadebulze.

ruseTsa da ukrainaSi, oficialuri monacemebiT, CvilTa mokvdaoba 10-is toli iyo da klebis tendencia eqneba momavalSi.

sainteresoa, rom prognozis Tanaxmad azerbaijanSi dRevandelTan SedarebiT CvilTa mokvdaoba TiTqmis 4-jer izrdeba. rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT arasruli aRricxvis gamo CvilTa mokvdaoba azerbaijanSi mniSvnelovnad aris Semcirebuli da saerTod ar asaxavs realur viTarebas. 2050 wlisaTvis gaeros eqspertTa gaangariSebiT CvilTa mokvdaoba azerbaijanSi, dRevandelTan SedarebiT, TiTqmis 2-jer Semcirdeba, magram mainc mniSvnelovnad meti iqneba, vidre saqarTvelosa da somxeTSi.

unda aRiniSnos, rom gaeros eqspertebi aseve eWvqveS ayeneben rogorc ruseTisa da ukrainis, ise baltiispireTis qveynebis monacemebs CvilTa mokvdaobis Sesaxeb da miiCneven, rom misi done aRniSnul qveynebSi ufro maRalia, vidre am qveynebis statistikidan gamomdinareobs80.

rac Seexeba mokvdaobis iseT ganmazogadebel maxasiaTebels, rogoric aris sicocxlis xangrZlivoba. 2007 wels saSualod msoflioSi sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas (SemdgomSi simartivisaTvis _ sicocxlis xangrZlivoba) orive sqesisaTvis 68 weli iyo (mamakacebisaTvis _ 66 weli da qalebisaTvis _ 70). ganviTarebul qveynebSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba 10 da meti wliT iyo ufro maRali, vidre naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi. ganviTarebul qveynebSi is 77 weli iyo orive sqesisaTvis (mamakacebisaTvis _ 73 weli da qalebisaTvis _ 80), xolo

80 World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, pp. 83-86.

128

naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi _ 66 weli orive sqesisaTvis (mamakacebisaTvis _ 64 weli da qalebisaTvis _ 68).

diagrama 4.7. sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas orive sqesisaTvis msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi 2007 da 2045-2050 ww.

59

54

57

87

85

84

84

73

75

80

80

79

76

77

75

42

33

43

82

81

79

79

65

68

72

71

73

71

71

72

0 20 40 60 80 100

avRaneTi

svazilendi

mozambiki

iaponia

safrangeTi

germania

gaerT. samefo

ruseTi

ukraina

latvia

litva

estoneTi

saqarTvelo

somxeTi

azerbaijani

2045-2050

2007


2045-2050 ww. _ World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, pp. 78-82.

sadReisod iaponiaSi, SvedeTSi, islandiaSi, safrangeTsa da zogierT sxva ganviTarebul qveyanaSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba orive sqesisaTvis ukve aRemateba 80 wels. germaniasa da gaerTianebul samefoSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba miuaxlovda 80 wels. yvela ganviTarebul qveyanaSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba momavalSic gaizrdeba da dRevandelTan SedarebiT 2050 wlisaTvis 4-5 wliT meti iqneba.

sicocxlis xangrZlivobis done yvelaze dabalia svazilendSi. sakmaod dabali _ avRaneTsa da mozambikSi da mTel rig afrikis qveynebSi. naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba momavalSi mniSvnelovnad ufro metad gaizrdeba ganviTarebul qveynebTan SedarebiT, Tumca sxvaoba mainc sakmaod didi iqneba. ganviTarebul qveynebSi sadReisod arsebuli sicocxlis xangrZlivoba ukve gacilebiT metia, vidre naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi 2050 wels iqneba miRweuli.

baltiispireTis qveynebSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba orive sqesisaTvis 71-73 wlis farglebSia da 2050 wlisaTvis 79-80 wlamde gaizrdeba. sadReisod arsebuli sxvaoba mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris sakmaod mniSvnelovania da 11-12 wels Seadgens.

2007 wels ruseTsa da ukrainaSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba Sesabamisad 65 da 68 weli iyo. aRsaniSnavia Zalian didi sxvaoba mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris, romelic 12-13 wels Seadgens. amasTan, ruseTSi mamakacebis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba (59 weli) 3 wliT naklebia, vidre ukrainaSi (62 weli).

ganviTarebul qveynebSi aRniSnuli sxvaoba mamakacebisa da qalebis

129

sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris 4-7 wlis farglebSia (SvedeTSi _ 4 weli, iaponiaSi _ 7 weli).

samxreT kavkasiaSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba orive sqesisaTvis 71-72 wlis farglebSia da 2050 wlisaTvis 75-76 wlamde gaizrdeba. sxvaoba mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris 5-8 wlis farglebSi meryeobs da momavalSi mosalodnelia aRniSnuli sxvaobis ramdenadme Semcireba.


2007 wels, saSualod msoflioSi, mosaxleobis 1000 sulze bunebrivi

mateba 12-s Seadgenda. ganviTarebul qveynebSi bunebrivi mateba

mniSvnelovnad dabali iyo, vidre naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi,

Sesabamisad 1‰ da 15‰81. aseTi gansxvaveba ZiriTadad Sobadobis doneTa

gansxvavebidan gamomdinareobs, romelic naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi

2-jer maRalia, vidre ganviTarebul qveynebSi.

2050 wlisaTvis, msoflioSi dRevandelTan SedarebiT, bunebrivi

mateba saSualod 4-jer Semcirdeba da 3‰-es farglebSi iqneba.

ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis klebas eqneba adgili 4‰-Ti, xolo naklebad

ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis, mniSvnelovani klebis miuxedavad, bunebrivi

mateba mosaxleobis 1000 sulze 5 iqneba82.

diagrama 4.8. bunebrivi mateba (‰) msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi 2007 da 2040-2050 ww.

26

34

33

0

4

-2

2

-5

-6

-5

-4

-2

0

6

12

10

12

12

-6

-2

-7

-3

-7

-7

-8

-7

-9

-5

-1

1

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

avRaneTi

niger

mali

iaponia

safrangeTi

germania

gaerT. samefo

ruseTi

ukraina

latvia

litva

estoneTi

saqarTvelo

somxeTi

azerbaijani

2040-2050

2007


2040-2050 ww. _ World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999.

gansakuTrebiT maRali bunebrivi matebiT gamoirCevian afrikis

81 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007 82 World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999, pp. 8-12.

130

qveynebi, sadac 2007 wlisaTvis bunebrivi mateba saSualod 24‰-es Seadgenda. 2050 wlisaTvis bunebrivi mateba 2, 4-jer Semcirdeba da prognozis saSualo variantiT 10‰-es farglebSi iqneba.

afrikasTan SedarebiT aziis qveynebSi bunebrivi mateba 2007 wlisaTvis 2-jer naklebi iyo (12‰) da 2050 wlisaTvis 4-jer Semcirdeba da 3‰-es farglebSi iqneba.

2007 wlisaTvis evropis qveynebisaTvis saSualod mokvdaoba Warbobda Sobadobas da amdenad bunebriv klebas hqonda adgili (-1‰). 2050 wlisaTvis es tendencia ufro gamoxatuli xasiaTis iqneba da -6‰-es farglebSi aRmoCndeba.

sadReisod yvelaze maRali bunebrivi matebiT msoflioSi gamoirCeva nigeri da mali.

safrangeTSi Sobadoba Warbobs mokvdaobas da amdenad bunebriv matebas aqvs adgili, xolo germaniasa da gaerTianebul samefoSi mokvdaoba metia Sobadobaze da mosaxleoba bunebrivi gziT klebulobs. mosaxleobis saerTo matebas mxolod gare migracia ganapirobebs.

ruseTsa da ukrainaSi ukve sadReisod mokvdaoba mniSvnelovnad Warbobs Sobadobas.

aseTive mdgomareobas aqvs adgili baltiispireTis qveynebSi, im gansxvavebiT, rom bunebrivi gziT kleba estoneTsa da litvaSi naklebia ruseTTan SedarebiT, xolo latviaSi imave donezea rac ruseTSi.

sadReisod samxreT kavkasiis qveynebSi maRali bunebrivi matebiT gamoirCeva azerbaijani. somxeTSi bunebrivi mateba 2-jer naklebia azerbaijanTan SedarebiT, xolo saqarTveloSi Sobadoba da mokvdaoba praqtikulad erTmaneTs gautolda. momavalSi bunebrivi matebis yvelaze mniSvnelovani Semcireba azerbaijanisaTvis iqneba damaxasiaTebeli, Tumca imave dros somxeTsa da gansakuTrebiT saqarTveloSi mokvdaoba gadaaWarbebs Sobadobas da amdenad depopulacias eqneba adgili.

rac Seexeba mosaxleobis ganaxlebis iseT maCvenebels rogoric aris mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti. 2005-2010 wlebSi msoflioSi saSualod is 1, 08-is farglebSi unda iyos da 2040-2050 wlisaTvis mosalodnelia misi Semcireba 0, 96-mde. amasTan, ganviTarebul qveynebSi, 2005-2010 wlebSi mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti 0, 76-s, xolo naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi _ 1, 14 Seadgens. gaeros eqspertebis SefasebiT 2040-2050 wlebisaTvis ganviTarebul qveynebSi mosalodnelia mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientis zrda 0, 88-mde, xolo naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi _ Semcireba 0,97-mde83.

zemoT motanilidan naTelia, rom ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis ukve sadReisod damaxasiaTebelia mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecili reJimi da momavalSi aRwarmoebis reJimis ramdenadme gaumjobesebis miuxedavad adgili eqneba mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecil reJims.

mTlianobaSi perspeqtiva sakmaod damafiqrebelia, vinaidan msoflio masStabiT damkvidrebas iwyebs mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecili reJimi. amasTan, gaurkvevelia, Tu ra meqanizmebs efuZneba mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientis mateba ganviTarebul qveynebSi. aseTi matebis erTaderTi gzaa Sobadobis zrda, romelic sadReisod naklebad savaraudod migvaCnia.

aRsaniSnavia, rom adre arsebuli warmodgenebi demografiuli gadasvlis dasrulebis Taobaze, rogorc Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis gawonasworebaze, sadReisod sxva SexedulebiT Seicvala da saubaria 83 World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999, pp. 8-12.

131

mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis uaxles, e.w. depopulaciur tipze. aRniSnulis Taobaze cnobili demografebi jer kidev karga xnis win

gvafrTxilebdnen. magaliTad, C. uestofi miiCnevda, rom warmodgena imis Sesaxeb, rom

istoriuli TvalsazrisiT demografiuli gadasvla damTavrdeba Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis magiuri wonasworebiT dabal doneze, atarebs ufro esTetikur, vidre realur xasiaTs84.

kidev ufro adre, cnobili demografis a. landris azriT Sobadobis Semcirebas momavalSi SeiZleba mohyves regresi da civilizaciis daRupvac ki85. am sakiTxebze saintereso mosazrebebi qarTvel demografebsac gaaCniaT86.

miuxedavad zemoT aRniSnulisa, qvemoT mogvyavs is monacemebi, romlebic gaeros eqspertebis Sefasebidan gamomdinareobs.

diagrama 4.9. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi

0.0

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niger

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rangeT

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samef

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aina

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Tvelo

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jan

i

2005-20102040-2050

wyaro: World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999.

zogad tendencias warmoadgens is, rom qveynebSi, sadac mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti maRali iyo, misi sidide momavalSi mniSvnelovnad klebulobs, xolo qveynebSi, romlebSic mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficientidan gamomdinare mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Sekvecili reJimi iyo damaxasiaTebeli, ukve sadReisod, gaeros eqspertebis SefasebiT neto koeficientis zrda aris mosalodneli. SegaxsenebT rom saqarTvelo Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebiT aris warmodgenili.

rac Seexeba mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiurobas, sadReisod ekonomikurad ganviTarebul qveynebSi mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba ukve (1, 03) metia, vidre naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebSi (1, 11). samomavlodac aRniSnuli tendencia iqneba SenarCunebuli. ganviTarebuli qveynebis mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiuroba 2040-2050 wlebisaTvis kidev ufro gaizrdeba (1, 01). naklebad ganviTarebul

84 Ch. F. Westoff. Thr Predicitability of Fertility in Developed Countres. – Population Bulletin of the United Natuions. 1978, #11, pp. 1-5. citirebulia wyarodan: Ч. Ф. Уэстоф. Возможности прогнозирования рождаемости в развитых странах //Как изучают рождаемость. М., 1983, с. 94. 85 A. Landri. La révolution demographique. P., 1934, p. 203. 86 a. sulaberiZe, v. sulaberiZe. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis uaxlesi tipis, fazaTaSorisi da tipTaSorisi gardamavali periodis Sesaxeb // demografiisa da sociologiis problemebi. t. 2, Tbilisi, 2004, gv. 62-76.

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qveynebSi am TvalsazrisiT mniSvnelovan Zvrebs eqneba adgili, Tumca aRniSnuli maCvenebeli (1, 04) mainc Camouvardeba ganviTarebuli qveynebis Sesabamis maCvenebels.

mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis ekonomiurobis mateba momavalSi yvela qveynebisaTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli, Tumca mniSvnelovani zrda swored im qveynebisaTvis iqneba mosalodneli, sadac sadReisod mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis bruto da neto koeficientebi sakmaod maRalia.

4.5. saerTaSoriso (gare) migracia

gaeros monacemebiT msoflioSi, 2000-2010 wlebze, saSualod wliurad 3 milionamde saerTaSoriso (gare) migrantia navaraudevi. amasTan, aRniSnuli 3 milioni gare migranti naklebad ganviTarebuli qveynebidan ganviTarebul qveynebSi midis. yvelaze meti migranti aziidan da laTinuri amerikidanaa, xolo mimReb qveynebs ZiriTadad CrdiloeT amerika da evropa warmoadgens.

unda aRiniSnos, rom 1960-1970 wlebTan SedarebiT, 2000-2010 wlebSi gare migracia 5, 2-jer gaizarda. raodenobrivis garda hqonda adgili Tvisebriv cvlilebebsac. magaliTad, 1960-1970 wlebsa da wina periodSi evropisaTvis gare migraciis saldo uaryofiTi iyo, xolo 1970-iani wlebidan saldo ukve dadebiTia, anu evropaSi meti migranti Camodis, vidre gadis.

zogadad msoflioSi, momavalSi dRevandelTan SedarebiT, gare migrantebis raodenoba ramdenadme daiklebs, Tumca 2010-2050 wlebis periodSi saSualod weliwadSi 2, 3 milionis farglebSi stabilizirdeba. praqtikulad 1950-2050 wlebis periodSi (10 wliani intervalebis ganxilvisas) .2000-2010 wlebi gare migraciis yvelaze didi sididiT gamoirCeva.

diagr 4.10. saSualo wliuri gare migraciis absoluturi saldo msoflios msxvili regionebis mixedviT 1960-2050 ww.

-1500

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500

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aTasi

afrika

azia

evropa

laTinuri amerika

CrdiloeT amerika

okeania

wyaro: World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007, p. 26.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli saqarTvelosaTvis 1960-iani wlebidan damaxasiaTebelia gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo, romlis sidide da intensivoba gansakuTrebiT maRali iyo 1992-1995 wlebSi.

bunebrivia, saqarTvelos garkveuli wvlili Seaqvs msoflios saerTaSoriso migraciaSi, Tumca absoluturi raodenobis TvalsazrisiT, es wvlili sakmaod mokrZalebulia da 2000-ian wlebSi mxolod 1%-s

133

Seadgens. rodesac saerTaSoriso (gare) migraciaze da mis saldoze vmsjelobT,

SedarebisaTvis ufro mizanSewonilia zogadi koeficientis, anu mosaxleobis 1000 sulze gaangariSebiT warmodgena. aseT dros SesaZlebelia gare migraciis saldos intensivobis gazomva.

diagrama 4.11. saerTaSoriso (gare) migraciis saldos sidide (‰) ganviTarebul, naklebad ganviTarebul qveynebsa da saqarTveloSi

-20

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5

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2010-2020

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2040-2050

‰

ganviTarebuliqveynebi

naklebadganviTarebuli

saqarTvelo

wyaro: gaangariSebuli Cvens mier _ World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y,

2007, p. 26; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999, pp. 10, 12, 20, 32, 42, 52, 60, 62 _ safuZvelze.

am TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos wvlili sxva mniSvnelobas iZens da aSkarad migviTiTebs imaze, rom gare migraciis intensivoba saqarTveloSi sakmaod maRali iyo da sadReisodac aseTad rCeba.

migraciis yvelaze didi saldo mosaxleobis 1000 sulze rogorc dadebiTi, ise uaryofiTi msoflioSi 1990-2000 wlebSi aRiniSna. am periodSi gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo saqarTveloSi gansakuTrebiT maRali intensivobiT gamoirCeoda (19, 2 mosaxleobis 1000 sulze).

2000-ian wlebSi gare migraciis saldo mcirdeba. gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani klebaa damaxasiaTebeli saqarTvelosaTvis, Tumca misi intensivoba mainc sakmaod maRali rCeba (-8, 5‰).

Semdgomi periodisaTvis rogorc msoflios qveynebisaTvis, ise saqarTvelosaTvisac ZiriTad tendencias warmoadgens gare migraciis saldos Semcireba.

ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis 2040 wlisa da Semdgomi periodisaTvis migraciis saldo mainc dadebiTi iqneba, anu ganviTarebuli qveynebi isev SeinarCuneben mimRebi qveynebis statuss, xolo naklebad ganviTarebuli qveynebi isev darCebian migrantebis mimwodeblebad. 2040-2050 wlebSi migrantTa yvelaze meti nakadi mimarTuli iqneba CrdiloeT amerikaSi da migraciis saldos intensivoba 6-jer meti iqneba, vidre evropis qveynebSi. aRniSnul periodSi saqarTvelosaTvis gare migraciis saldo 0-is farglebSi iqneba, anu gasulebisa da Camosulebis raodenoba erTmaneTs gautoldeba.

134

bolosityvaoba

saqarTvelom Zveli droidan demografiuli ganviTarebis xangrZlivi periodi gaiara.

XIX saukunis pirveli naxevridan saqarTvelo gadadis mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Tanamedrove tipze. mTeli XIX saukunis ganmavlobasa da XX saukunis dasawyisSi, garkveuli cvlilebebis miuxedavad, saqarTvelo mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Tanamedrove tipis pirvel fazaSi imyofeboda.

saqarTveloSi 1914-1928 wlebSi fazaTaSorisi gardamavali periodi mimdinareobda, xolo meore fazis dasawyisad 1928-1930 wlebi unda vivaraudoT. meore faza saqarTveloSi 1970-ian wlebamde grZeldeboda, xolo 1970-iani wlebi demografiuli ganviTarebis fazaTaSoris gardamaval periodze modis. mesame fazaTaSorisi gardamavali periodi tipTaSoris gardamaval periodSi gadaizarda, anu 2000 wlidan saqarTveloSi mimdinareobs mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis Tanamedrove tipidan uaxles, e.w. depopulaciur tipze gadasvlis tipTaSorisi gardamavali periodi87.

qvemoT motanil diagramaze naCvenebia saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba 1800-2050 wlebis periodisaTvis.

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mokvdaoba

rogorc vxedavT maRalma Sobadobam da mokvdaobam TandaTan adgili

dauTmo dabal Sobadobasa da mokvdaobas. 1990-iani wlebidan Sobadoba arsebiTad da mniSvnelovnad mcirdeba, xolo mokvdaobis saerTo done, asakobrivi struqturuli cvlilebebidan gamomdinare, rac ZiriTadad demografiuli daberebis Sedegia, izrdeba. 2010 wlidan ukve mokvdaoba gadaaWarbebs Sobadobas da depopulaciis procesi Semdgom periodSi ufro gamokveTili iqneba.

sicocxlis xangrZlivobis Sesaxeb met-naklebad zusti monacemebi XIX saukunis bolosaTvis gagvaCnia. 1897 wlisaTvis sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas mamakacebisaTvis 42, 4, xolo qalebisaTvis _ 43, 9 wels Seadgenda88.

1926-1927 wlebSi sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas

87 a. sulaberiZe. _ J. “demografia”. #3(8) 2004, gv. 72-80; a. sulaberiZe. fiqrebi qarTul ojaxsa da demografiaze. Tbilisi, 2007, gv. 82-84. 88 g. wulaZe sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cvlilebis mizezebi saqarTveloSi. CRRC. Tbilisi, 2007, gv. 74.

135

mamakacebisaTvis daaxloebiT 53 wlamde, xolo qalebisaTvis _ 57 wlamde gaizarda.

1920-1930 wlebSi saqarTvelo sicocxlis xangrZlivobis mixedviT axlos imyofeboda dasavleT evropis ganviTarebul qveynebTan.

am wlebSi, wina periodTan SedarebiT, izrdeba sxvaoba mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris.

Semdgom periodSi sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas ganagrZobs zrdas da 1960 wels, SefasebiTi monacemebiT, mamakacebisaTvis 64,8 da qalebisaTvis _ 69, 4 wels miaRwia.

momdevno periodisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia sicocxlis xangrZlivobis ufro SesamCnevi zrda, ris Sedegadac 1990 wlisaTvis man mamakacebisaTvis 67, 5 da qalebisaTvis 75, 1 weli Seadgina.

1990-iani da 2000-iani wlebis pirveli naxevrisaTvis, garkveuli cvalebadobis miuxedavad, aRiniSneba sicocxlis xangrZlivobis garkveuli stagnacia.

statistikis departamentis monacemebidan gamomdinare sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrda 2005 wlidan ufro gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvis Sedegia, vidre realuri mdgomareoba.

sicocxlis xangrZlivobis ramdenadme zrda mxolod 2010 wlisaTvisaa mosalodneli. aRniSnuli droidan sicocxlis xangrZlivobas zrdis tendencia eqneba.

3035404550556065707580

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qalebi

erTnaxevari saukunis ganmavlobaSi mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi aRiniSna saqarTvelos mosaxleobis dinamikaSi.

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zemoT motanil diagramaze 2002 wlis CaTvliT mocemulia saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT, xolo 2010-2050 wlebi prognozis saSualo variantiT.

rogorc vxedavT 1989 wlis CaTvliT saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba izrdeboda, xolo momdevno periodidan damaxasiaTebeli iqneba saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis Semcireba.

mdgomareobas gaarTulebs is garemoebac, rom 2010 wlis Semdeg saqarTvelo ukve srulad gadava mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis uaxles tipze, romlis ZiriTadi damaxasiaTebeli niSania depopulacia.

aseT viTarebaSi aqtiuri socialur-demografiuli da saojaxo politikis gatarebis SemTxvevaSi, SesaZlebelia mxolod negatiuri demografiuli viTarebis ramdenadme Serbileba-gaumjobeseba. am mimarTulebiT kardinalur cvlilebebs 2030 wlamde ar unda velodoT.

mxolod sazogadoebrivad saWiro “bavSvebis yolis moTxovnilebisa” da Sesabamisi reproduqciuli ganwyobis formirebis Semdegadaa SesaZlebeli garkveuli Zvrebi Sobadobis donis amaRlebasa da demografiuli viTarebis SedarebiT gamosworebaSi.

137

d a n a r T i 1. demografiuli maCveneblebi

cxrili 1.1. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1960-2007 wlebSi (1 ianvris mdgomareobiT)

weli

sul (aTasi)

maT Soris:

Sefaseba (aTasi)

qalaqad soflad qalaqad soflad aTasi % sd monacemebiT

1960 4129 1744 2385 42.2 57.8 4117 1961 4190 1803 2387 43.0 57.0 4166 1962 4258 1884 2374 44.2 55.8 4223 1963 4325 1927 2398 44.6 55.4 4278 1964 4389 1969 2420 44.9 55.1 4332 1965 4450 2026 2424 45.5 54.5 4384 1966 4505 2073 2432 46.0 54.0 4430 1967 4556 2122 2434 46.6 53.4 4473 1968 4598 2157 2441 46.9 53.1 4507 1969 4640 2202 2438 47.5 52.5 4541 1970 4686 2240 2446 47.8 52.2 4579 1971 4729 2276 2453 48.1 51.9 4615 1972 4778 2317 2461 48.5 51.5 4657 1973 4818 2349 2469 48.8 51.2 4691 1974 4856 2388 2468 49.2 50.8 4723 1975 4896 2434 2462 49.7 50.3 4758 1976 4920 2491 2429 50.6 49.4 4777 1977 4960 2523 2437 50.9 49.1 4813 1978 4986 2552 2434 51.2 48.8 4833 1979 4993 2549 2444 51.1 48.9 4859 1980 5041 2629 2412 52.2 47.8 4884 1981 5071 2659 2412 52.4 47.6 4911 1982 5100 2694 2406 52.8 47.2 4938 1983 5134 2729 2405 53.2 46.8 4970 1984 5167 2762 2405 53.5 46.5 5001 1985 5201 2798 2403 53.8 46.2 5033 1986 5234 2833 2401 54.1 45.9 5064 1987 5266 2873 2393 54.6 45.4 5095 1988 5397 2975 2422 55.1 44.9 5123 1989 5400 2991 2409 55.4 44.6 5148 1990 5424.4 2999.7 2424.7 55.3 44.7 5178.0 1991 5453.3 3004.8 2448.5 55.1 44.9 5206.0 1992 5467.4 2998.6 2468.8 54.8 45.2 5216.0 1993 5345.8 2918.3 2427.5 54.6 45.4 5078.0 1994 4929.9 2678.7 2251.2 54.3 45.7 4625.0 1995 4794.2 2592.7 2201.5 54.1 45.9 4475.0 1996 4674.5 2516.0 2158.5 53.8 46.2 4342.0 1997 4558.4 2441.9 2116.5 53.6 46.4 4212.7 1998 4504.9 2401.8 2103.1 53.3 46.7 4152.0 1999 4469.8 2371.7 2098.1 53.1 46.9 4112.2 2000 4435.2 2342.0 2093.2 52.8 47.2 4072.7 2001 4401.4 2312.9 2088.5 52.6 47.4 4034.4 2002 4371.5 2284.8 2086.7 52.3 47.7 4001.0 2003 4342.6 2266.8 2075.8 52.2 47.8 3965.8 2004 4315.2 2252.5 2062.7 52.2 47.8 3930.9 2005 4321.5 2257.5 2064.0 52.2 47.8 3899.3 2006 4401.3 2310.4 2090.9 52.5 47.5 3869.2 2007 4394.7 2308.9 2085.8 52.5 47.5 3839.2

sd _ mudmivi mosaxleoba, Sefaseba _ faqtobrivi mosaxleoba

wyaro: aq da SemdgomSi _ sd masalebi, agreTve G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria. Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2006. UNFPA. Tbilisi, 2007.

138

cxrili 1.2. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba asakisa da sqesis mixedviT (aTasi)

asaki orive sqesi mamakacebi qalebi

orive sqesi mamakacebi qalebi


sd monacemebiT

1959 15. 01.* 1989 12. 01.* 2007 01.01. -1 89.3 45.4 43.9 89.2 45.9 43.3 47.0 24.8 22.2

1-4 370.7 188.9 181.8 376.5 192.1 184.4 185.2 97.6 87.6 5-9 408.8 208.9 199.9 440.6 224.2 216.4 243.7 127.8 115.9

10-14 315.9 162.0 153.9 432.1 220.0 212.1 303.2 155.8 147.4 15-19 335.8 162.5 173.3 419.2 217.7 201.5 370.4 187.8 182.6 20-24 399.8 185.1 214.7 413.8 203.4 210.4 357.9 180.1 177.8 25-29 366.3 174.3 192.0 467.6 226.1 241.5 328.0 162.8 165.2 30-34 363.6 171.9 191.7 416.8 201.3 215.5 310.7 151.3 159.4 35-39 221.2 87.6 133.6 362.4 174.6 187.8 299.3 143.5 155.8 40-44 188.1 73.2 114.9 261.1 124.7 136.4 320.1 149.4 170.7 45-49 197.6 83.7 113.9 296.5 139.0 157.5 329.4 153.3 176.1 50-54 171.6 73.7 97.9 345.7 163.9 181.8 279.6 128.3 151.3 55-59 171.7 61.8 109.9 303.9 140.8 163.1 236.8 107.4 129.4 60-64 134.1 53.6 80.5 297.4 130.2 167.2 140.0 61.3 78.7 65-69 101.7 45.5 56.2 160.5 57.5 103.0 233.3 96.9 136.4 70-74 85.5 35.8 49.7 123.4 39.5 83.9 172.5 70.7 101.8 75-79 60.6 26.6 34.0 100.8 33.0 67.8 134.1 51.5 82.6 80-84 33.6 13.4 20.2 55.9 17.6 38.3 68.9 21.8 47.1 85+ 28.4 11.6 16.8 37.4 10.5 26.9 34.6 7.4 27.2

s u l 4044.3 1865.5 2178.8 5400.8 2562.0 2838.8 4394.7 2079.5 2315.2

-15 1184.7 605.2 579.5 1338.4 682.2 656.2 779.1 406.0 373.1 15-64 2549.6 1127.3 1422.3 3584.4 1721.7 1862.7 2972.2 1425.2 1547.0 65+ 310.0 133.0 177.0 478.0 158.1 319.9 643.4 248.3 395.1

SefasebiTi monacemebiT 1960 01.01. 1989 01. 01. 2007 01.01 -1 93.3 47.4 45.9 89.1 45.8 43.3 48.9 25.1 23.8

1-4 377.1 192.2 184.9 358.6 183.0 175.6 195.5 101.2 94.3 5-9 416.0 212.6 203.4 419.6 213.5 206.1 232.7 121.5 111.3

10-14 321.4 164.8 156.6 411.5 209.5 202.0 253.3 131.3 122.0 15-19 341.7 165.4 176.3 399.2 207.3 191.9 284.1 146.2 137.9 20-24 406.6 188.3 218.3 394.1 193.7 200.4 296.2 148.7 147.4 25-29 372.5 177.2 195.3 445.3 215.3 230.0 284.5 139.3 145.2 30-34 370.0 175.0 195.0 397.0 191.8 205.2 262.4 125.1 137.3 35-39 225.0 89.1 135.9 345.2 166.3 178.9 251.4 118.1 133.3 40-44 191.4 74.5 116.9 248.7 118.8 129.9 255.6 119.3 136.3 45-49 201.0 85.1 115.9 282.4 132.4 150.0 262.5 121.8 140.7 50-54 174.6 75.0 99.6 329.3 156.1 173.2 231.2 105.2 126.0 55-59 174.7 62.9 111.8 289.4 134.1 155.3 198.1 87.6 110.5 60-64 136.4 54.5 81.9 283.3 124.0 159.3 188.2 80.7 107.5 65-69 103.5 46.3 57.2 152.9 54.8 98.1 189.5 78.8 110.7 70-74 87.0 36.4 50.6 117.5 37.6 79.9 170.7 68.9 101.8 75-79 61.7 27.1 34.6 96.0 31.4 64.6 128.7 49.9 78.8 80-84 34.2 13.6 20.6 53.3 16.8 36.5 72.8 25.9 46.9 85+ 28.9 11.8 17.1 35.6 10.0 25.6 32.9 10.0 22.9

s u l 4117.0 1899.2 2217.8 5148.0 2442.2 2705.8 3839.2 1804.6 2034.6

-15 1207.7 617.0 590.7 1278.8 651.8 627.0 730.4 379.0 351.4 15-64 2594.0 1147.0 1447.0 3413.9 1639.8 1774.1 2514.2 1192.1 1322.1 65+ 315.3 135.2 180.1 455.3 150.6 304.7 594.6 233.5 361.1

139

* mosaxleobis aRwerebis masalebis mixedviT. mudmivi mosaxleoba.

cxrili 1.3. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba asakisa da sqesis mixedviT (%)

asaki orive sqesi mamakacebi qalebi



sd monacemebiT

1959 15. 01. 1989 12. 01. 2007 01.01. -1 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.0

1-4 9.2 10.1 8.3 7.0 7.5 6.5 4.2 4.7 3.8 5-9 10.1 11.2 9.2 8.2 8.8 7.6 5.5 6.1 5.0

10-14 7.8 8.7 7.1 8.0 8.6 7.5 6.9 7.5 6.4 15-19 8.3 8.7 8.0 7.8 8.5 7.1 8.3 8.9 7.8 20-24 9.9 9.9 9.8 7.7 7.9 7.4 8.1 8.7 7.7 25-29 9.1 9.3 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.5 7.5 7.8 7.1 30-34 9.0 9.2 8.8 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.1 7.3 6.9 35-39 5.5 4.7 6.1 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.7 40-44 4.7 3.9 5.3 4.8 4.9 4.8 7.3 7.2 7.4 45-49 4.9 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 7.5 7.4 7.6 50-54 4.2 4.0 4.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.5 55-59 4.2 3.3 5.0 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.6 60-64 3.3 2.9 3.7 5.5 5.1 5.9 3.2 2.9 3.4 65-69 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.2 3.6 5.3 4.7 5.9 70-74 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.5 3.0 3.9 3.4 4.4 75-79 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.4 3.1 2.5 3.6 80-84 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.0 2.0 85+ 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.2

s u l 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

-15 29.3 32.4 26.6 24.8 26.6 23.1 17.7 19.5 16.1 15-64 63.0 60.5 65.3 66.3 67.2 65.6 67.6 68.5 66.8 65+ 7.7 7.1 8.1 8.9 6.2 11.3 14.7 12.0 17.1

SefasebiTi monacemebiT

1960 01.01. 1989 01. 01. 2007 01.01. -1 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.2

1-4 9.2 10.1 8.3 7.0 7.5 6.5 5.1 5.6 4.6 5-9 10.2 11.4 9.2 8.1 8.7 7.6 6.1 6.7 5.5

10-14 7.8 8.7 7.1 8.0 8.6 7.5 6.5 7.3 6.0 15-19 8.3 8.7 7.9 7.8 8.5 7.2 7.4 8.1 6.8 20-24 9.9 9.9 9.8 7.7 7.9 7.4 7.7 8.2 7.2 25-29 9.0 9.3 8.8 8.6 8.8 8.5 7.4 7.7 7.1 30-34 9.0 9.2 8.8 7.7 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.9 6.6 35-39 5.5 4.7 6.1 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 40-44 4.6 3.9 5.3 4.8 4.9 4.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 45-49 4.9 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 6.8 6.7 6.9 50-54 4.2 3.9 4.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.2 55-59 4.2 3.3 5.0 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.2 4.9 5.4 60-64 3.3 2.9 3.7 5.5 5.1 5.9 4.9 4.5 5.3 65-69 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.2 3.6 4.9 4.4 5.4 70-74 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.5 3.0 4.4 3.8 5.0 75-79 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.4 3.4 2.8 3.9 80-84 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.4 2.3 85+ 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.1

s u l 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

-15 29.5 32.7 26.7 24.8 26.7 23.2 19.0 21.0 17.3 15-64 62.9 60.3 65.1 66.3 67.1 65.6 65.5 66.0 65.0 65+ 7.6 7.0 8.2 8.9 6.2 11.2 15.5 13.0 17.7

140

cxrili 1.4. Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da bunebrivi mateba saqarTveloSi 1960-2006 ww.

weli

cocxlad dabadebulebi gardacvlilebi bunebrivi mateba

raodenoba koef. ‰ raodenoba koef. ‰ raodenoba koef. ‰

sd Sefa-seba

sd Sefa-seba

sd Sefa-seba

sd Sefa-seba

sd Sefa-seba

sd Sefa-seba

1960 102866 24.7 24.8 27015 39324 6.5 9.5 75851 63542 18.2 15.2 1961 104429 24.7 24.9 27621 39111 6.5 9.3 76808 65318 18.2 15.4 1962 101717 23.7 23.9 30394 41944 7.1 9.9 71323 59773 16.6 13.8 1963 100326 23.0 23.3 29620 39809 6.8 9.2 70706 60517 16.2 13.8 1964 97433 22.0 22.4 29708 38947 6.7 8.9 67725 58486 15.3 13.1 1965 94987 21.2 21.6 31291 40021 7.0 9.1 63696 54966 14.2 12.1 1966 92026 20.3 20.7 30389 38427 6.7 8.6 61637 53599 13.6 11.7 1967 89302 19.5 19.9 32904 41130 7.2 9.2 56398 48172 12.3 10.3 1968 89660 19.4 19.8 32416 40066 7.0 8.9 57244 49594 12.4 10.5 1969 87069 18.7 19.1 35169 42977 7.5 9.4 51900 44092 11.2 9.3 1970 90207 19.2 19.6 34283 41506 7.3 9.0 66924 48701 11.9 10.2 1971 90396 19.0 19.5 35325 42143 7.4 9.1 55071 48253 11.6 9.9 1972 86402 18.0 18.5 36409 42853 7.6 9.2 49993 43549 10.4 8.8 1973 88577 18.3 18.8 35911 41657 7.4 8.9 52666 46920 10.9 9.4 1974 89761 18.4 18.9 37145 42494 7.6 9.0 52616 47267 10.8 9.4 1975 89712 18.3 18.8 39292 44361 8.0 9.3 50420 45351 10.3 9.0 1976 90605 18.3 18.9 38875 43268 7.9 9.0 51730 47337 10.5 9.3 1977 89028 17.9 18.5 40139 44113 8.1 9.1 48889 44915 9.8 8.8 1978 88766 17.8 18.4 40239 43659 8.0 9.0 48527 45107 9.7 8.8 1979 89803 17.8 18.5 41907 44893 8.3 9.2 47896 44910 9.5 8.6 1980 89458 17.6 18.3 43346 46163 8.5 9.4 46112 43295 9.1 8.2 1981 92501 18.1 18.8 43961 46511 8.6 9.4 48540 45990 9.5 8.7 1982 91784 17.8 18.5 42734 44956 8.3 9.1 49050 46828 9.5 8.7 1983 92660 17.8 18.6 43301 45250 8.3 9.1 49359 47410 9.5 8.7 1984 95841 18.3 19.1 45787 47527 8.7 9.5 50054 48314 9.5 8.8 1985 97739 18.5 19.4 46153 47630 8.7 9.4 51586 50109 9.8 9.1 1986 98155 18.4 19.3 46354 47559 8.7 9.4 51801 50596 9.7 9.0 1987 94595 17.6 18.5 46332 47235 8.6 9.2 48263 47360 9.0 8.4 1988 91905 17.0 17.9 47544 48176 8.8 9.4 44361 43729 8.2 7.6 1989 91138 16.8 17.7 49682 47468 9.2 9.2 41456 43670 7.6 7.6 1990 92815 17.1 17.9 50721 48983 9.3 9.4 42094 43832 7.8 8.5 1991 89091 16.3 17.1 52416 51561 9.6 9.9 36675 37530 6.7 7.2 1992 72631 13.4 14.1 55076 54370 10.2 10.6 17555 18261 3.2 3.5 1993 61594 12.0 12.7 57539 57393 11.2 11.8 4055 4201 0.8 0.9 1994 57311 11.8 12.6 50326 50365 10.4 11.1 6985 6946 1.4 1.5 1995 56341 11.9 12.8 49073 49930 10.4 11.3 7268 6411 1.5 1.5 1996 55000 55000 11.9 12.9 47961 49291 10.4 11.5 7039 5709 1.5 1.4 1997 54000 54000 11.9 12.9 47575 49511 10.5 11.8 6425 4489 1.4 1.1 1998 51526 52000 11.5 12.6 47321 49475 10.5 12.0 4205 2525 1.0 0.6 1999 48695 49500 10.9 12.1 47184 49510 10.6 12.1 1511 -10 0.3 0.0 2000 48800 50000 11.0 12.3 47410 49695 10.7 12.3 1390 305 0.3 0.0 2001 47589 50000 10.8 12.4 46218 48213 10.5 12.0 1371 1787 0.3 0.4 2002 46605 49000 10.7 12.3 46446 48257 10.7 12.1 159 743 0.0 0.2 2003 46194 49000 10.7 12.4 46055 48364 10.6 12.3 139 636 0.1 0.1 2004 49572 52000 11.5 13.3 48793 51665 11.3 13.2 779 335 0.2 0.1 2005 46512 50000 10.7 12.9 42284 50260 9.9 12.9 3528 -260 0.8 -0.1 2006 47795 50000 10.9 13.0 42255 48745 9.6 12.7 5540 1255 1.3 0.3

141

cxrili 1.5. qorwineba da ganqorwineba saqarTveloSi 1960-2006 ww.

weli

qorwineba ganqorwineba

raodenoba sd

koeficienti (‰) raodenoba sd

koeficienti (‰)

sd Sefaseba sd Sefaseba 1960 44075 10.6 10.6 1470 0.4 0.4 1961 41705 9.9 9.9 1735 0.4 0.4 1962 40384 9.4 9.5 1910 0.4 0.4 1963 39622 9.1 9.2 1915 0.4 0.4 1964 38749 8.8 8.9 1932 0.4 0.4 1965 38930 8.7 8.8 2221 0.5 0.5 1966 40303 8.9 9.1 4396 1.0 1.0 1967 38227 8.4 8.5 4405 1.0 1.0 1968 36929 8.0 8.2 4510 1.0 1.0 1969 35666 7.6 7.8 4661 1.0 1.0 1970 36518 7.8 7.9 4943 1.0 1.1 1971 37011 7.8 8.0 4833 1.0 1.0 1972 36111 7.5 7.7 4692 1.0 1.0 1973 39826 8.2 8.5 5169 1.1 1.1 1974 41814 8.6 8.8 5258 1.1 1.1 1975 42183 8.6 8.8 5501 1.1 1.2 1976 43813 8.9 9.1 6172 1.2 1.3 1977 44301 8.9 9.2 6305 1.3 1.3 1978 46773 9.4 9.7 6621 1.3 1.4 1979 52524 10.4 10.8 6592 1.3 1.4 1980 50547 10.0 10.3 6788 1.3 1.4 1981 48100 9.4 9.8 7023 1.4 1.4 1982 49688 9.6 10.0 7114 1.4 1.4 1983 45559 8.8 9.1 7315 1.4 1.5 1984 41775 8.0 8.3 7117 1.4 1.4 1985 44168 8.4 8.7 6514 1.2 1.3 1986 44485 8.3 8.8 6667 1.3 1.3 1987 39157 7.3 7.7 6766 1.3 1.3 1988 38100 7.0 7.4 7082 1.3 1.4 1989 38288 7.1 7.4 7358 1.4 1.4 1990 36812 6.7 7.1 7796 1.4 1.5 1991 38070 7.0 7.3 7440 1.4 1.4 1992 26878 5.0 5.2 4890 0.9 1.0 1993 24105 4.7 5.0 3211 0.6 0.7 1994 21908 4.5 4.8 3089 0.6 0.7 1995 21481 4.5 4.9 2685 0.6 0.6 1996 19253 4.2 4.5 2269 0.5 0.5 1997 17099 3.8 4.1 2267 0.5 0.5 1998 15343 3.4 3.7 1758 0.4 0.4 1999 13845 3.1 3.4 1622 0.4 0.4 2000 12870 2.9 3.2 1854 0.4 0.5 2001 13336 3.0 3.3 1987 0.5 0.5 2002 12535 2.9 3.1 1836 0.4 0.5 2003 12696 2.9 3.2 1825 0.4 0.5 2004 14866 3.5 3.8 1793 0.4 0.5 2005 18012 4.1 4.6 1928 0.4 0.5 2006 21845 5.0 5.7 2060 0.5 0.5

142

cxrili 1.6. cocxlad dabadebulebi dedis asakis mixedviT saqarTveloSi

1960-2006 ww.

weli sul dedis asaki wlebSi

ucnobia -20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50+

sd monacemebiT 1960 102866 3663 31575 31549 23702 8565 2585 622 605 1965 94987 4656 21863 33992 19608 11760 2462 457 189 1970 90207 7027 30420 21622 20500 7869 2407 304 58 1975 89712 8331 36126 23857 10746 8336 1996 310 10 1980 89458 10623 40469 23869 9957 2830 1452 137 121 1981 92501 9194 42175 25683 10958 2910 1385 159 37 1982 91784 10038 42239 24676 10696 2833 1162 140 - 1983 92660 10042 42205 24906 11224 3269 888 126 - 1984 95841 9830 42992 26153 12158 3804 752 152 - 1985 97839 10009 42629 27730 12352 4272 635 212 - 1986 98155 17338 33402 29052 12995 4554 692 122 - 1987 94595 17089 31640 28040 12371 4439 887 110 19 1988 91905 10966 36791 27020 12023 4217 758 87 43 1989 91138 11760 35297 26504 12404 4295 812 66* 1990 92815 11906 35271 26228 13712 4734 920 44* 1991 89091 12022 34953 23558 12931 4655 949 23* 1992 72631 10487 30200 17503 10198 3500 717 26* 1993 61594 11216 24174 14305 8324 2888 639 48* 1994 57311 12597 21155 12810 7444 2612 624 69* 1995 56341 11893 20578 12691 7474 2928 676 101* 1996 55000 10862 19903 12715 7591 3153 649 127* 1997 54000 9920 19223 12743 7465 3343 857 449* 1998 51526 9212 18609 12287 6939 3256 768 455* 1999 48695 8313 17552 11751 6861 3281 806 131* 2000 48800 7124 18394 12100 6868 3305 868 141* 2001 47589 5784 18571 11379 7073 3610 955 217* 2002 46605 5833 17945 10077 7834 3541 1150 225* 2003 46194 5907 16463 12449 7269 3040 929 47 14 76 2004 49572 6187 18179 13196 7316 3277 971 130 29 287 2005 46512 6903 16703 12110 6896 2870 752 278 2006 47795 6633 17665 12410 6831 2929 791 87 34 415

Sefaseba 1996 55000 10862 19925 12715 7591 3153 649 105* 1997 54000 9920 19223 12743 7465 3343 857 449* 1998 52000 9296 18780 12400 7003 3286 775 460* 1999 49500 8415 17830 11930 7029 3317 842 137* 2000 50000 7300 18820 12450 7000 3400 900 130* 2001 50000 6062 19489 11974 7415 3808 1002 250* 2002 49000 6133 18866 10595 8237 3723 1210 236* 2003 49000 6266 17502 13230 7742 3225 985 50* 2004 52000 6525 19172 13917 7717 3458 1024 187* 2005 50000 7421 17924 13050 7413 3085 808 299* 2006 50000 7000 18686 13150 7146 3064 827 127*

*45+

143

cxrili 1.7. Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi da mosaxleobis

aRwarmoebis bruto da neto koeficientebi

weli sul (15-49)

dedis asaki wlebSi Sobadobis jamobrivi

koeficienti

aRwarmoebis koeficienti

-20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ bruto neto

sd monacemebiT 1958-1959 85.0 22.2 124.3 172.0 112.2 58.7 21.5 6.4 2.59 1.237 1.146 1961-1962 89.9 24.5 150.5 163.0 113.0 55.2 18.3 4.5 2.65 1.287 1.194 1963-1964 84.6 23.2 158.5 161.4 106.1 53.0 17.5 3.9 2.62 1.267 1.176 1965-1966 78.2 28.2 163.7 154.1 99.8 54.1 15.6 3.7 2.60 1.249 1.183 1967-1968 72.9 31.1 167.9 145.7 98.5 46.0 14.4 3.2 2.53 1.228 1.170 1969-1970 73.3 34.3 182.9 147.2 97.5 46.3 12.6 2.4 2.62 1.292 1.233 1971-1972 70.8 33.7 183.5 155.7 90.7 44.4 12.0 2.2 2.61 1.277 1.215 1973-1974 69.4 33.4 192.0 157.6 78.4 41.5 10.8 1.7 2.58 1.269 1.206 1975-1976 68.9 36.3 179.4 156.3 82.5 35.9 11.0 1.8 2.52 1.239 1.179 1977-1978 68.0 37.4 178.1 140.7 71.3 27.3 9.5 1.2 2.33 1.144 1.091 1979-1980 68.5 47.8 181.1 121.9 66.3 24.0 7.6 1.4 2.26 1.102 1.052

1981 69.9 39.7 189.2 126.6 63.1 24.0 6.6 1.0 2.25 1.100 1.052 1982 69.0 44.6 186.0 118.8 58.9 23.7 5.9 0.8 2.19 1983 69.4 46.1 182.6 117.6 60.1 25.2 5.0 0.7 2.19

1.109 1.071 1984 71.5 46.7 184.2 120.9 63.9 26.1 4.9 0.8 2.24 1985 72.6 49.1 183.7 124.9 63.0 26.0 4.8 1.1 2.26

1.149 1.109 1986 72.7 49.1 180.0 127.4 64.6 26.4 5.8 0.6 2.27 1987 70.0 49.2 176.4 119.6 60.0 24.6 7.6 0.6 2.19 1.117 1.078 1988 68.0 54.5 172.4 112.5 56.8 22.7 5.9 0.5 2.13 1.094 1.058 1989 67.2 58.0 167.7 110.4 57.7 22.7 5.8 0.4 2.113 1.026 0.993 1990 67.8 58.1 167.3 110.5 64.1 24.7 6.2 0.3 2.155 1.046 1.015 1991 64.5 58.0 165.6 100.4 60.7 23.9 6.1 0.1 2.075 1.005 0.976 1992 52.8 50.7 144.7 76.5 48.7 17.9 4.5 0.2 1.716 0.835 0.812 1993 47.4 56.6 122.0 66.7 42.2 15.4 4.2 0.3 1.537 0.741 0.714 1994 46.4 66.6 113.1 64.2 40.2 14.6 4.2 0.5 1.517 0.724 0.698 1995 46.0 64.2 113.3 66.4 41.9 16.6 4.2 0.7 1.537 0.733 0.708 1996 45.8 59.7 112.8 69.5 44.1 18.2 4.0 0.8 1.545 0.737 0.713 1997 45.6 55.2 111.3 72.2 44.6 19.4 5.2 3.0 1.555 0.742 0.720 1998 43.8 51.4 109.1 71.6 42.3 18.9 4.6 3.0 1.505 0.718 0.698 1999 41.5 46.5 104.0 70.3 42.5 19.0 4.7 0.9 1.439 0.687 0.669 2000 41.7 39.9 110.2 74.4 43.3 19.2 4.9 0.9 1.464 0.699 0.680 2001 40.9 32.5 112.2 71.1 45.2 21.0 5.4 1.4 1.444 0.689 0.669 2002 40.3 32.7 107.8 63.2 50.4 21.2 6.6 1.4 1.417 0.684 0.666 2003 40.0 33.2 99.4 78.8 46.8 19.0 5.2 0.5 1.414 0.665 0.645 2004 42.8 35.1 109.3 83.3 47.2 21.1 5.4 1.0 1.512 0.718 0.695 2005 39.6 38.5 97.2 75.2 44.0 18.6 4.2 0.5 1.391 0.654 0.634 2006 40.2 36.7 100.7 76.0 43.3 18.9 4.6 0.7 1.405 0.663 0.648

Sefaseba 1989 70.9 61.4 179.7 115.2 59.8 23.7 5.9 0.5 2.231 1.083 1.052 1990 71.9 62.2 182.5 115.1 65.8 25.5 6.2 0.3 2.288 1.111 1.080 1991 68.6 62.5 179.8 105.6 62.9 24.7 6.2 0.2 2.210 1.071 1.039 1992 56.4 55.0 156.7 81.4 51.0 18.5 4.6 0.2 1.837 0.894 0.867 1993 50.5 62.2 132.5 72.4 44.9 15.9 4.2 0.3 1.662 0.801 0.777 1994 49.9 74.4 123.2 71.0 43.5 15.1 4.2 0.5 1.660 0.797 0.773 1995 50.5 72.4 123.4 74.8 46.0 17.3 4.6 0.7 1.696 0.814 0.790 1996 50.7 68.1 122.9 79.5 49.0 18.9 4.4 0.8 1.718 0.825 0.800 1997 50.7 63.5 120.9 84.0 50.2 20.2 5.8 3.3 1.740 0.835 0.810 1998 49.3 60.1 119.3 84.0 48.1 20.0 5.2 3.4 1.701 0.816 0.792 1999 47.3 54.6 114.8 81.0 48.7 20.7 5.7 1.0 1.632 0.783 0.760 2000 48.2 47.4 123.2 84.5 49.0 22.1 6.0 1.0 1.666 0.800 0.777 2001 48.6 39.6 129.2 81.4 52.2 25.5 6.7 1.0 1.678 0.805 0.784 2002 48.0 40.5 125.5 72.2 58.3 25.6 8.2 1.7 1.661 0.797 0.775 2003 48.3 42.0 116.0 90.2 55.3 22.6 6.8 0.4 1.666 0.800 0.777 2004 51.6 44.6 126.8 94.7 55.7 24.8 7.1 1.3 1.775 0.860 0.834 2005 50.1 51.7 119.3 89.1 53.8 22.6 5.7 2.1 1.722 0.837 0.809

144

2006 50.8 50.0 125.9 90.3 52.1 22.8 6.0 0.9 1.740 0.846 0.819

cxrili 1.8. cocxlad dabadebulebi saqarTveloSi dabadebis rigiTobis mixedviT (sd monacemebiT)

weli

dabadebis rigiToba sul

I II III IV V+ raodenoba

1960 35672 29632 17693 9327 10536 102860 1665 29928 28166 18251 9182 9459 94986 1970 33060 28029 15087 7200 6830 90206 1975 39838 28725 13419 4677 3053 89712 1980 43442 29538 10822 3441 2215 89458 1985 41868 34625 15116 3975 2155 97739 1990 41338 31582 14477 3639 1779 92815 1995 30012 18352 5642 1621 714 56341 2000 25327 16250 5270 1318 635 48800 2001 25460 15086 5187 1285 571 47589 2002 24952 14878 5060 1146 569 46605 2003 28875 11752 3929 1025 613 46194 2004 28100 15771 4209 1037 455 49572 2005 27356 13743 4043 942 428 46512 2006 28935 13371 4107 938 444 47795

% 1960 34.7 28.8 17.2 9.1 10.2 100.0 1665 31.5 29.7 19.2 9.7 10.0 100.0 1970 36.6 31.1 16.7 8.0 7.6 100.0 1975 44.4 32.0 15.0 5.2 3.4 100.0 1980 48.6 33.0 12.1 3.8 2.5 100.0 1985 42.8 35.4 15.5 4.1 2.2 100.0 1990 44.5 34.0 15.6 3.9 1.9 100.0 1995 53.3 32.6 10.0 2.9 1.3 100.0 2000 51.9 33.3 10.8 2.7 1.3 100.0 2001 53.5 31.7 10.9 2.7 1.2 100.0 2002 53.5 31.9 10.9 2.5 1.2 100.0 2003 62.5 25.5 8.5 2.2 1.3 100.0 2004 56.7 31.8 8.5 2.1 0.9 100.0 2005 58.8 29.6 8.7 2.0 0.9 100.0 2006 60.5 28.0 8.6 2.0 0.9 100.0

145

cxrili 1.9. registrirebuli qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba saqarTveloSi (sd monacemebiT)

weli

sul daibada

qorwinebaSi dabadebulebi

qorwinebis gareSe dabadebulebi

maT Soris: ucnobia

mSobelTa erToblivi gancxadebiT dedis gancxadebiT

raodenoba 1989 91138 74977 16161 11391 4770 1990 92815 75912 16903 12706 4197 1991 89091 72412 16679 12814 3865 1992 72631 56819 15812 12477 3335 1993 61594 … . . . . . . . . . 1994 57311 41039 16272 14433 1839 1995 56341 39877 16464 14277 2187 1996 55000 38005 16995 14556 2439 1997 54000 35964 18036 15220 2816 1998 51526 33286 18240 15895 2345 1999 48695 30970 17725 15446 2279 2000 48800 28743 20057 17927 2130 2001 47589 26459 21130 18933 2197 2002 46605 25202 21403 19266 2137 2003 46194 25610 20584 16947 2776 861 2004 49572 25929 22735 18782 3953 908 2005 46512 23410 23102 19864 2856 382 2006 47795 21786 26009 23314 2425 270

% yvela dabadebuls Soris 1989 100.0 82.3 17.7 12.5 5.2 1990 100.0 81.8 18.2 13.7 4.5 1991 100.0 81.3 18.7 14.4 4.3 1992 100.0 78.2 21.8 17.2 4.6 1993 100.0 … ... ... ... 1994 100.0 71.6 28.4 25.2 3.2 1995 100.0 70.8 29.2 25.3 3.9 1996 100.0 69.1 30.9 26.5 4.4 1997 100.0 66.6 33.4 28.2 5.2 1998 100.0 64.6 35.4 29.7 5.7 1999 100.0 63.6 36.4 31.7 4.7 2000 100.0 58.9 39.0 34.6 4.4 2001 100.0 55.6 44.4 39.9 4.5 2002 100.0 54.1 45.9 41.3 4.6 2003 100.0 55.4 44.6 36.7 6.0 1.9 2004 100.0 52.3 47.7 37.9 8.0 1.8 2005 100.0 50.3 49.7 42.8 6.1 0.8 2006 100.0 45.6 54.4 48.8 5.1 1.0

146

cxrili 1.10. qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis zogierTi maCvenebeli

qorwinebis jamobrivi koeficienti qorwinebis saSualo asaki ganqorwineba yvela

qorwineba pirveli qorwineba

xelaxali qorwineba

yvela qorwineba

pirveli qorwineba

xelaxali qorwineba

jamobrivi koeficienti

saSualo asaki

1990

mamakacebi 0.976 0.844 0.132 28.7 27.1 42,5 0.234 37.8 qalebi 0.944 0.869 0.075 25.1 24.1 40,1 0.208 35.3

1991 mamakacebi 1.008 0.899 0.108 27.8 26.5 42.6 0.222 37.5 qalebi 0.975 0.913 0.062 24.2 23.4 39.7 0.197 34.9
















147

cxrili 1.11. gardacvlilebi asakisa da sqesis mixedviT saqarTveloSi (aTasi)

asaki orive sqesi

mamakacebi qalebi orive sqesi


mamakacebi qalebi

sd monacemebiT

1960 1989 2006 -1 3739 2000 1739 2005 1158 847 753 395 358

1-4 1281 722 559 500 272 228 57 31 26 5-9 364 201 163 177 104 73 57 36 21

10-14 220 132 88 156 105 51 67 38 29 15-19 228 143 85 259 189 70 129 93 36 20-24 578 394 184 434 314 120 279 207 72 25-29 601 394 207 621 451 170 378 293 85 30-34 902 540 362 725 519 206 523 405 118 35-39 617 328 289 897 646 251 668 513 155 40-44 570 306 264 968 702 266 1061 803 258 45-49 877 475 402 1559 1067 492 1448 1102 346 50-54 1076 640 436 2730 1898 832 1864 1365 499 55-59 1324 735 589 3458 2266 1192 1996 1419 577 60-64 1797 1004 793 5454 3387 2067 1886 1179 707 65-69 1956 1075 881 4289 2227 2062 5581 3329 2252 70-74 2557 1314 1243 5450 2396 3054 6091 3414 2677 75-79 2663 1299 1364 6865 2800 4065 7805 3858 3947 80-84 2650 1264 1386 6029 2190 3839 6426 2468 3958 85+ 3015 1377 1638 7106 2204 4902 5186 1510 3676 sul 27015 14343 12672 49682 24895 24787 42255 22458 19797


1960 1989 2006 -1 4113 2200 1913 2005 1158 847 1150 625 525

1-4 1356 756 600 478 260 218 90 60 30 5-9 380 210 170 171 100 71 110 75 35

10-14 245 140 105 148 99 49 75 40 35 15-19 416 243 173 244 178 66 140 100 40 20-24 678 400 278 408 298 110 295 215 80 25-29 688 400 288 595 431 164 390 300 90 30-34 933 550 383 699 500 199 535 410 125 35-39 650 330 320 860 621 239 680 520 160 40-44 660 330 330 943 685 258 1090 815 275 45-49 1039 527 512 1393 949 444 1485 1115 370 50-54 1376 730 646 2662 1854 808 1895 1375 520 55-59 2051 952 1099 3289 2155 1134 2120 1450 670 60-64 2494 1286 1208 5238 3289 1949 2490 1540 950 65-69 3032 1684 1348 4206 2187 2019 5635 3335 2300 70-74 4199 2112 2087 4887 2093 2794 6510 3450 3060 75-79 4944 2394 2550 6587 2654 3933 9100 4400 4700 80-84 4300 1876 2424 5883 2141 3742 7620 3100 4520 85+ 5770 2494 3276 6772 2111 4661 7335 2310 5025 sul 39324 19614 19710 47468 23763 23705 48745 25235 23510

148

cxrili 1.12. mokvdaobis koeficientebi saqarTveloSi (‰)

asaki orive sqesi



mamakacebi qalebi

sd monacemebiT 1960 1989 2006

-1 41.9 44.1 39.6 22.5 25.2 19.6 16.2 16.1 16.3 1-4 3.5 3.8 3.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 5-9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2

10-14 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 15-19 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 20-24 1.5 2.1 0.9 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.4 25-29 1.6 2.3 1.1 1.3 2.0 0.7 1.2 1.8 0.5 30-34 2.5 3.1 1.9 1.7 2.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 0.7 35-39 2.8 3.7 2.2 2.5 3.7 1.3 2.2 3.6 1.0 40-44 3.0 4.2 2.3 3.6 5.4 1.9 3.2 5.3 1.5 45-49 4.4 5.7 3.5 5.2 7.7 3.1 4.4 7.3 2.0 50-54 6.3 8.7 4.5 7.9 11.6 4.6 6.8 10.8 3.4 55-59 7.7 11.9 5.4 11.5 16.3 7.4 8.6 13.5 4.6 60-64 13.4 18.7 9.9 18.2 25.9 12.3 13.0 18.6 8.6 65-69 19.2 23.6 15.7 26.1 37.2 19.7 23.7 34.0 16.4 70-74 30.6 36.7 25.0 42.7 57.5 35.6 36.3 49.3 27.2 75-79 43.9 48.8 40.1 67.2 83.6 59.2 57.7 74.6 47.2 80-84 78.9 94.3 68.6 107.6 125.0 99.8 98.7 121.6 88.3 85+ 106.2 118.7 97.5 190.7 212.0 182.5 153.0 206.8 138.2

s u l 6.5 7.5 5.7 9.2 9.7 8.7 9.6 10.8 8.5 SefasebiTi monacemebiT

1960 1989 2006 -1 44.1 46.4 41.7 22.5 25.3 19.6 23.5 24.9 22.1

1-4 3.6 3.9 3.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 5-9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3

10-14 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 15-19 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 20-24 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.5 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.5 25-29 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.3 2.0 0.7 1.4 2.2 0.6 30-34 2.5 3.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 1.0 2.0 3.3 0.9 35-39 2.9 3.7 2.4 2.5 3.7 1.3 2.7 4.4 1.2 40-44 3.4 4.4 2.8 3.6 5.4 1.9 4.2 6.7 2.0 45-49 5.2 6.2 4.4 5.2 7.7 3.1 5.6 9.1 2.6 50-54 7.9 9.7 6.5 7.9 11.6 4.6 8.3 13.1 4.2 55-59 11.7 15.1 9.8 11.5 16.3 7.4 10.7 16.5 6.1 60-64 18.3 23.6 14.8 18.2 25.9 12.2 13.1 18.8 8.8 65-69 29.3 36.4 23.6 26.0 37.2 19.7 29.4 41.8 20.6 70-74 48.3 58.0 41.3 42.7 57.5 35.8 38.0 49.7 30.1 75-79 80.2 88.5 73.7 67.2 83.6 59.4 71.0 88.2 60.0 80-84 125.8 137.6 118.0 107.6 125.0 99.7 107.6 124.5 95.5 85+ 199.7 211.3 191.7 190.7 211.9 182.4 222.9 231.0 219.4

s u l 9.6 10.3 8.9 9.2 9.7 8.7 12.7 13.9 11.5

149

cxrili 1.13. 1 wlamde asakSi gardacvlili bavSvebi da CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficientebi

weli

raodenoba koeficienti 1000 cocxlad dabadebulze

sd monacemebiT

jandacvis monacemebiT


sd monacemebiT

jandacvis monacemebiT


1975 2932 2593 3025 32.7 29.9 33.7 1976 2664 2191 2731 29.5 25.5 30.2 1977 2702 2378 2752 30.2 27.1 30.7 1978 2354 2033 2382 26.5 23.2 26.8 1979 2592 2439 2605 29.0 27.2 29.1 1980 2275 2322 2400 25.4 26.2 26.8 1981 2719 2633 2795 29.7 28.9 30.6 1982 2332 2335 2424 25.4 25.5 26.3 1983 2205 2402 2417 23.9 26.2 26.1 1984 2272 2609 2644 23.9 27.9 27.6 1985 2339 2560 2621 24.0 26.9 27.0 1986 2500 2566 2714 25.5 26.9 27.7 1987 2318 2502 2543 24.3 27.4 26.6 1988 2026 2259 2296 21.9 25.2 25.0 1989 2005 1935 2005 21.9 22.0 22.0 1990 1910 1804 1910 20.7 19.7 20.7 1991 1850 1744 1850 20.5 21.1 20.6 1992 1601 1424 1601 20.5 20.5 20.9 1993 1800 1397 1800 27.6 24.5 28.0 1994 1680 1345 1680 28.6 25.2 28.8 1995 1600 1311 1600 28.2 23.7 28.3 1996 1550 1494 1550 28.0 27.8 28.0 1997 1300 1254 1300 23.9 24.1 24.0 1998 1150 1054 1150 22.0 21.0 21.9 1999 1104 1094 1104 22.2 23.4 22.0 2000 1100 989 1100 22.6 21.1 22.1 2001 1098 920 1100 22.9 20.0 22.0 2002 1102 912 1100 23.8 20.2 22.5 2003 1144 823 1200 24.8 18.7 24.5 2004 1178 834 1240 23.8 18.0 24.2 2005 916 851 1150 19.7 18.4 23.0 2006 753 853 1150 15.8 17.8 23.0

150

cxrili 1.14. mokvdaobis koeficientebi sikvdilis mizezebis mixedviT (100000 adamianze)

klasi sd monacemebiT


2000 2006 2000 2006

I zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 10.9 5.5 11.3 6.7

II axalwarmonaqmnebi 121.5 109.8 132.4 138.4

III sisxlisa da sisxlmbadi organoebis da imunuri meqanizmis CaTreviT mimdinare calkeuli darRvevebi 0.5 – 0.5 –

IV endokrinuli sistemis, kvebis moSlilobis da nivTierebaTa cvlis darRvevis daavadebebi 22.1 10.6 24.7 13.3

V fsiqikuri da qceviTi aSlilobebi 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.4

VI nerviuli sistemis daavadebebi 3.1 6.6 3.0 8.8

VII Tvalisa da misi danamatebis daavadebebi _ _ _ _

VIII yurisa da dvrilisebri morCis daavadebebi _ _ _ _

IX sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 755.7 645.1 881.8 855.0

X sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 30.8 27.2 34.3 36.6

XI saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi 35.5 26.1 38.7 32.4

XII kanisa da kanqveSa ujredisis daavadebebi 0.1 – 0.1 –

XIII ZvalkunTovani sistemisa da SemaerTebeli qsovilis daavadebebi 0.2 – 0.3 0.1

XIV Sardsasqeso sistemis daavadebebi 4.2 7.0 4.5 8.8

XV orsuloba, mSobiaroba da loginobis xana, abortiT damTavrebuli orsuloba 1.0 0.5 2.2 0.6

XVI perinatalur periodSi warmoSobili calkeuli mdgomareobebi 17.4 15.0 18.9 26.2

XVII ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebi, deformaciebi da qromosomuri anomaliebi 0.7 1.3 0.7 2.4

XVIII simptomebi, niSnebi da normidan gadaxrebi, gamovlenili klinikuri da laboratoriuli gamokvlevebisas, romlebic ar arian klasificirebuli sxva rubrikebSi 35.8 77.2 40.7 100.6

XIX travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegi 33.2 28.6 34.0 34.9

sul 1073.5 960.9 1228.9 1265.2

151

cxrili 1.15. mosalodneli sicocxlis xangrZlivoba garkveuli asakisaTvis

weli

dabadebisas 15 65 orive sqesi mamakacebi qalebi orive sqesi mamakacebi qalebi orive sqesi mamakacebi qalebi

sd monacemebiT

1960 72.7 69.1 75.8 62.3 58.8 65.3 19.0 17.4 20.5 1970 71.9 67.9 75.4 60.0 56.1 63.3 16.4 14.5 17.9 1979 71.0 66.7 74.6 59.2 55.2 62.5 15.6 13.7 16.9 1989 71.3 67.3 75.0 58.6 54.7 62.0 15.2 13.3 16.3 1990 71.4 67.5 75.0 58.5 54.7 61.9 15.1 13.3 16.1 1991 71.2 67.1 75.0 58.2 54.3 61.8 14.9 13.1 16.0 1992 70.4 66.0 74.6 57.3 53.0 61.2 14.7 13.0 15.8 1993 68.9 64.4 73.2 56.4 52.1 60.5 14.0 12.3 15.1 1994 70.2 66.0 74.1 57.8 53.8 61.5 14.5 12.8 15.7 1995 70.3 66.3 74.2 57.8 53.9 61.5 14.6 13.0 15.7 1996 70.7 66.9 74.3 58.1 54.5 61.5 14.6 13.1 15.6 1997 70.9 67.1 74.5 58.0 54.4 61.4 14.6 13.1 15.6 1998 71.2 67.4 74.8 58.1 54.5 61.5 14.5 13.0 15.6 1999 71.4 67.5 75.1 58.3 54.6 61.8 14.5 12.9 15.7 2000 71.3 67.5 75.0 58.3 54.7 61.7 14.5 12.9 15.7 2001 71.5 68.0 74.8 58.6 55.3 61.7 14.7 13.3 15.6 2002 71.5 68.0 74.8 58.6 55.3 61.7 14.7 13.3 15.6 2003 72.1 68.7 75.3 59.3 55.9 62.3 14.8 13.0 16.1 2004 71.6 67.9 75.1 58.8 55.1 62.3 14.4 12.6 15.8 2005 74.0 70.1 77.6 60.6 56.6 64.3 16.3 14.0 18.0 2006 74.3 69.8 78.5 60.7 56.2 65.0 16.4 14.0 18.2


1960 67.3 64.8 69.4 57.0 54.6 58.9 14.1 13.0 15.0 1970 69.4 66.7 71.8 57.7 55.2 59.9 14.5 13.4 15.4 1979 70.2 66.4 73.5 58.5 54.9 61.5 14.8 13.4 15.7 1989 71.3 67.3 75.0 58.6 54.7 62.0 15.2 13.3 16.3 1990 71.5 67.5 75.1 58.5 54.7 61.9 15.1 13.3 16.2 1991 71.2 67.2 74.9 58.2 54.3 61.8 14.9 13.2 16.0 1992 70.5 66.1 74.7 57.4 53.2 61.3 14.8 13.1 15.9 1993 68.9 64.5 73.2 56.4 52.2 60.5 14.0 12.4 15.1 1994 70.3 66.2 74.2 57.9 53.9 61.6 14.6 13.1 15.7 1995 70.5 66.6 74.3 58.0 54.3 61.6 14.6 13.1 15.7 1996 70.9 67.1 74.5 58.3 54.7 61.6 14.6 13.1 15.7 1997 71.1 67.4 74.6 58.2 54.6 61.5 14.6 13.1 15.7 1998 71.2 67.5 74.9 58.2 54.6 61.6 14.5 13.1 15.7 1999 71.4 67.6 75.1 58.3 54.7 61.7 14.5 13.1 15.7 2000 71.4 67.6 75.0 58.3 54.8 61.7 14.5 13.1 15.6 2001 71.6 68.1 75.0 58.6 55.3 61.6 14.7 13.4 15.7 2002 71.5 68.0 75.0 58.5 55.2 61.6 14.7 13.4 15.7 2003 71.3 68.0 74.3 58.4 55.3 61.3 14.5 13.5 15.3 2004 70.6 66.8 74.3 57.8 54.1 61.4 14.3 12.7 15.5 2005 71.3 67.5 74.8 58.3 54.6 61.7 14.6 13.1 15.7 2006 71.4 67.2 75.6 58.5 54.3 62.6 14.9 13.2 16.2

152

cxrili 1.16. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis gare migraciis saldo 1960-2006 ww.

weli sd monacemebiT SefasebiTi monacemebiT

raodenoba (aTasi) koeficienti (‰) raodenoba (aTasi) koeficienti (‰)

1960 -16.8 -4.0 ... ... 1961 -10.0 -2.4 ... ... 1962 -5.0 -1.2 ... ... 1963 -7.5 -1.7 ... ... 1964 -7.6 -1.7 ... ... 1965 -10.0 -2.2 ... ... 1966 -10.6 -2.3 ... ... 1967 -14.8 -3.2 ... ... 1968 -15.6 -3.4 ... ... 1969 -8.6 -1.8 ... ... 1970 -11.6 -2.5 ... ... 1971 -6.4 -1.3 ... ... 1972 -10.0 -2.1 ... ... 1973 -14.6 -3.0 ... ... 1974 -13.9 -2.9 ... ... 1975 -25.5 -5.2 ... ... 1976 -12.0 -2.4 ... ... 1977 -23.7 -4.8 ... ... 1978 -22.0 -4.4 ... ... 1979 -19.0 -3.8 ... ... 1980 -17.0 -3.4 ... ... 1981 -19.3 -3.8 ... ... 1982 -15.0 -2.9 ... ... 1983 -15.9 -3.1 ... ... 1984 -19.9 -3.8 ... ... 1985 -18.8 -3.6 ... ... 1986 -19.8 -3.8 ... ... 1987 -19.9 -3.7 ... ... 1988 -13.3 -2.5 ... ... 1989 -17.9 -3.3 ... ... 1990 -13.2 -2.4 -15.8 -3.0 1991 -22.6 -4.1 -27.5 -5.3 1992 -139.3 -25.8 -156.3 -30.4 1993 -140.9 -27.4 -157.2 -32.4 1994 -142.6 -29.3 -156.9 -34.5 1995 -127.2 -28.2 -139.4 -31.6 1996 -123.1 -27.5 -135 -31.6 1997 -59.9 -13.5 -65.2 -15.6 1998 -39.2 -8.7 -42.3 -10.2 1999 -36.3 -8.1 -39.5 -9.7 2000 -35.2 -8.0 -38.6 -9.5 2001 -31.2 -7.1 -35.2 -8.8 2002 -39.1 -6.7 -35.9 -9.0 2003 -27.6 -6.4 -35.5 -9.0 2004 5.5 1.3 -31.5 -8.0 2005 76.3 17.5 -30.4 -7.8 2006 -12.1 -2.8 -28.7 -7.4

153

cxrili 1.17. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis erovnuli Semadgenloba

erovneba sd monacemebiT SefasebiTi

monacemebiT 1959 1970 1979 1989 1989* 2002* 2007*

raodenoba (aTasi)

sul 4044.3 4686.1 4993.2 5400.8 4777.2 4371.5 3839.2

qarTvelebi 2600.6 3130.7 3433.0 3787.4 3519.0 3661.2 3235.0 somxebi 442.9 452.3 448.0 437.2 359.7 248.9 206.7 rusebi 407.9 396.7 371.6 341.2 264.2 67.7 63.0 azerbaijanelebi 153.6 217.8 255.7 307.6 307.6 284.8 230.0 berZnebi 72.9 89.2 95.1 100.3 85.6 15.2 14.4 ebraelebi 51.6 55.4 28.3 24.6 23.2 3.6 3.8 osebi 141.2 150.2 160.5 164.1 97.7 38.0 34.9 afxazebi 62.9 79.4 85.3 95.9 2.6 3.5 2.9 ukrainelebi 52.2 49.6 45.0 52.4 40.7 7.0 5.4 qurTebi da iezidebi 16.2 20.7 25.7 33.3 33.3 18.3 16.1 belorusebi 5.1 6.1 5.7 8.6 6.5 0.5 0.5

sxva 37.2 38.0 39.3 48.2 37.1 22.8 26.5

wili mTel mosaxleobaSi (%)

sul 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

qarTvelebi 64.3 66.8 68.8 70.1 73.7 83.8 84.3 somxebi 11.0 9.7 9.0 8.1 7.5 5.7 5.4 rusebi 10.1 8.5 7.4 6.3 5.5 1.5 1.6 azerbaijanelebi 3.8 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.4 6.5 6.0 berZnebi 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.4 ebraelebi 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 osebi 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 afxazebi 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 ukrainelebi 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 qurTebi da iezidebi 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 belorusebi 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0

sxva 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7

* afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis mosaxleobis gareSe

154

cxrili 1.18. Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da bunebrivi mateba saqarTveloSi zogierTi xalxmravali erovnebisaTvis

cocxl

ad

dab

adeb

ulebi

gardac

vli-

lebi

bunebr

ivi

mateba

Soba

doba

(‰

)

mokvdao

ba

(‰)

bunebr

ivi

mateba

(‰)

1989* qarTvelebi 60957 32169 28788 16.1 8.5 7.6 somxebi 8104 4432 3672 18.5 10.1 8.4 rusebi 3869 4535 -666 11.3 13.3 -2.0 azerbaijanelebi 8827 1770 7057 28.7 5.8 22.9 2005* qarTvelebi 40260 36174 4086 11.2 10.0 1.2 somxebi 1952 2140 -168 8.0 8.8 -0.8 rusebi 406 783 -377 6.3 12.2 -5.9 azerbaijanelebi 3404 1129 2275 12.0 4.0 8.0 2005** qarTvelebi 41422 42427 -1005 12.7 13.0 -0.3 somxebi 2498 3108 -610 11.9 14.8 -2.9 rusebi 477 1446 -969 7.4 22.4 -15.0 azerbaijanelebi 4453 1767 2686 19.3 7.7 11.6

* statistikis departamentis monacemebiT

** SefasebiTi monacemebiT

cxrili 1.19. daqorwinebulebis da ganqorwinebulebis ganawileba (%) saqarTveloSi erovnebis mixedviT 2006 w.

qalebi

mamakacebi qarTveli

rusi

ukr

aineli

azer

baij

anel

i

somexi

sxvebi

sul

daqorwinebulebi qarTveli 98.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 100.0 rusi 19.5 72.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 6.1 100.0 ukraineli 7.4 0.4 27.0 0.8 2.5 61.9 100.0 azerbaijaneli 2.0 0.3 0.0 96.2 0.0 1.5 100.0 somexi 8.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 88.9 0.8 100.0 sxvebi 72.1 4.5 0.0 7.2 2.7 13.5 100.0 ganqorwinebulebi qarTveli 99.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0 rusi 0.0 83.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 100.0 ukraineli 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 azerbaijaneli 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 somexi 15.8 2.6 0.0 0.0 81.6 0.0 100.0 sxvebi 63.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.4 100.0

155

cxrili 1.20. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi: saqarTvelo, 2001 weli (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)

asaki daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebi

jami

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX

0 -0.026 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.147 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.431 0.030 0.033 0.012 0.619 1 0.011 -0.004 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.013 0.032 0.060 5 0.005 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.014 0.071 10 0.006 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.007 0.002 0.000 -0.004 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.021 0.061 15 0.005 0.006 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.018 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 -0.007 0.000 0.000 -0.007 0.067 0.079 20 -0.001 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.014 0.000 0.000 0.039 0.095 0.132 25 0.017 0.003 0.002 -0.002 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.072 0.025 0.020 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.013 0.000 0.000 0.063 0.156 0.338 30 0.031 -0.019 0.007 0.007 0.003 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.143 0.006 0.027 -0.002 0.000 0.004 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.158 0.406 35 0.035 -0.019 -0.002 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.245 0.012 0.046 -0.001 0.000 0.003 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.041 0.148 0.510 40 0.032 -0.018 -0.001 0.004 0.002 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.312 0.018 0.075 0.000 0.000 0.008 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.062 0.114 0.611 45 0.016 -0.023 -0.001 0.018 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.404 0.011 0.075 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.080 0.611 50 0.012 0.036 0.001 0.012 0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.492 0.015 0.084 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.035 0.070 0.756 55 0.011 0.027 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.378 0.001 0.061 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.032 0.550 60 0.006 0.051 0.002 0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.450 0.009 0.050 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.035 0.036 0.643 65 0.012 0.098 0.000 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.409 0.019 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.026 0.612 70 0.007 0.067 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.387 0.014 0.029 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.010 0.538 75 0.002 0.032 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.132 0.006 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.004 0.203 80 0.000 0.017 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.005 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.091

85+ 0.001 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.032 0.001 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.059

sul 0.180 0.263 0.015 0.058 0.012 0.031 0.000 0.000 3.525 0.353 0.526 -0.005 -0.004 0.049 -0.043 0.431 0.030 0.446 1.082 6.95

daavadebaTa ZiriTadi klasebis CamonaTvali ixile mocemuli danarTis cxrili 1.14.

154

156

cxrili 1.21. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli mamakacebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi: saqarTvelo, 2006 weli (SefasebiTi monacemebiT)


jami


0 -0.013 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.210 0.026 -0.005 -0.010 0.213 1 0.023 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.023 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.032 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.004 0.079 5 -0.021 0.026 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.084 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.030 0.036 0.119 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 15 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.025 0.009 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.027 0.060 0.120 20 0.006 -0.016 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.053 0.006 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.069 0.119 0.249 25 0.001 0.005 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.009 0.015 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.166 0.374 30 0.018 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.137 0.008 0.029 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.166 0.151 0.514 35 0.013 -0.015 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.227 0.015 0.056 0.000 0.000 0.005 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.154 0.142 0.605 40 0.028 -0.026 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.344 0.028 0.102 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.170 0.109 0.785 45 0.040 0.022 0.000 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.432 0.025 0.097 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.148 0.110 0.897 50 0.013 0.073 0.000 0.005 0.001 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.019 0.120 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.171 0.070 0.992 55 0.015 0.117 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.488 0.014 0.054 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.157 0.042 0.900 60 0.005 0.122 0.000 -0.002 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.392 0.020 0.011 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.087 0.012 0.648 65 0.006 0.124 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.614 0.015 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.076 0.022 0.906 70 0.000 0.087 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.344 0.011 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.006 0.501 75 -0.001 0.046 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.247 0.019 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.019 0.011 0.356 80 -0.001 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.104 0.007 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.003 0.142

85+ 0.001 0.007 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.003 0.020

sul 0.128 0.588 0.000 0.031 0.013 0.097 0.000 0.000 4.059 0.257 0.555 0.000 0.000 0.053 -0.017 0.210 0.026 1.371 1.050 8.42

155

157

cxrili 1.22. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli mamakacebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT


jami


0 0.086 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.307 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.238 -0.073 0.016 0.010 0.107

1 -0.004 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.000 -0.004 0.000 0.000 -0.022 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.018 0.037 0.026

5 0.013 -0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.106 -0.016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.038 -0.010 -0.186

10 0.005 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.018 0.018 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.024

15 0.011 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 -0.038 0.074 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.027 0.001 0.028

20 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.053 0.027 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.046 -0.019 -0.102

25 0.007 0.004 0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.041 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.062 -0.001 -0.012

30 0.010 -0.008 0.007 0.004 0.004 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.010 -0.002 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.119 0.013 -0.089

35 0.015 -0.008 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 -0.001 -0.005 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.102 0.012 -0.073

40 0.007 -0.008 0.000 0.002 0.002 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.029 -0.005 -0.028 0.000 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.097 -0.005 -0.169

45 -0.015 -0.018 0.000 0.011 -0.003 -0.006 0.000 0.000 -0.027 -0.008 -0.015 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.106 -0.020 -0.207

50 0.004 -0.017 0.001 0.006 0.002 -0.013 0.000 0.000 0.014 -0.007 -0.027 0.000 0.000 -0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.131 -0.005 -0.183

55 -0.001 -0.051 0.000 0.012 -0.001 -0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.023 -0.009 0.015 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.139 -0.012 -0.220

60 0.005 -0.013 0.002 0.013 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.173 -0.001 0.037 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.073 0.027 0.168

65 0.006 -0.042 0.000 0.008 -0.001 -0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.112 -0.007 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.087 -0.001 -0.248

70 0.007 -0.003 0.001 0.012 0.001 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.180 -0.011 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.034 0.003 0.181

75 0.003 -0.013 0.001 0.005 0.001 -0.004 0.000 0.000 -0.023 -0.019 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.035 -0.004 -0.081

80 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.030 -0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.007 -0.002 0.011

85+ 0.000 -0.005 0.000 -0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.038 -0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.012 0.002 0.006

sul 0.159 -0.193 0.022 0.070 0.003 -0.077 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.386 0.012 0.000 0.000 -0.010 0.000 -0.238 -0.073 -1.116 0.029 -1.02

156

158

cxrili 1.23. sikvdilis ZiriTadi mizezebis roli qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobas Soris gansxvavebaSi 2006 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT


jami


0 0.111 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.194 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.495 -0.088 -0.019 -0.009 -0.287

1 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 -0.026 0.069 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.009 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.004 0.005 0.049

5 -0.011 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.021 0.000 0.000 -0.044 -0.011 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.081 0.012 -0.161

10 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 -0.026 0.023 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.020 -0.007 -0.025

15 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.000 -0.024 0.080 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.013 0.066

20 -0.002 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 -0.013 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.001 0.004

25 -0.007 0.008 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.021 0.037 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000 -0.019 0.008 0.019

30 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.001 0.000

35 -0.002 -0.003 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.007 0.004 0.000

40 0.004 -0.018 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.010 0.004 -0.010 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.012 -0.013 -0.050

45 0.007 0.026 0.001 0.002 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.011 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.009 0.005 0.028

50 0.007 0.017 0.000 0.001 0.002 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.028 -0.005 0.005 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.026 -0.007 0.017

55 0.003 0.035 0.000 0.004 0.000 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.105 0.003 0.014 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.041 -0.004 0.114

60 0.005 0.068 0.000 0.015 0.001 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.184 0.012 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.044 0.010 0.254

65 0.001 -0.028 0.001 0.009 -0.001 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.112 -0.015 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.043 -0.006 0.023

70 0.003 0.024 0.003 0.025 0.000 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.241 -0.024 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.040 0.000 0.249

75 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 -0.011 0.000 0.000 0.143 -0.013 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.040 0.006 0.101

80 -0.002 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.135 -0.014 0.002 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.017 0.002 0.106

85+ 0.000 -0.011 0.000 -0.001 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 0.024 -0.026 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.025 0.002 -0.044

sul 0.127 0.128 0.009 0.072 0.002 -0.043 0.000 0.000 0.814 0.305 0.056 0.003 0.004 -0.007 0.016 -0.494 -0.088 -0.431 -0.009 0.46

157

159

cxrili 1.24. mosalodneli sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cvalebadoba garkveuli asakisaTvis zogierTi daavadebis SemTxvevaSi da mis gareSe 1989 da 2004 wlebSi

weli

asaki

0 1 15 45 65 arsebuli daavadebis SemTxvevaSi

arsebuli daavadebis

gareSe

arsebuli daavadebis SemTxvevaSi

arsebuli daavadebis

gareSe


arsebuli daavadebis

gareSe


arsebuli daavadebis

gareSe


arsebuli daavadebis

gareSe

mamakacebi axalwarmonaqmnebi

1989 67.3 69.1 68.0 69.9 54.6 56.5 27.6 29.3 13.3 14.2 2004 66.9 69.0 67.6 69.5 54.1 55.9 27.1 28.8 12.7 13.8

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi

1989 67.3 76.1 68.0 77.0 54.6 63.7 27.6 36.6 13.3 20.5 2004 66.8 75.2 67.6 76.2 54.1 62.6 27.1 35.3 12.7 19.5


1989 67.3 68.7 68.0 68.8 54.6 55.2 27.6 28.1 13.3 13.7 2004 66.8 67.9 67.6 68.7 54.1 55.1 27.1 28.0 12.7 13.5

tramvebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegi

1989 67.3 69.5 68.0 70.2 54.6 56.6 27.6 28.3 13.3 13.5 2004 66.8 68.3 67.6 69.0 54.1 55.4 27.1 27.7 12.7 13.1

qalebi

axalwarmonaqmnebi

1989 75.0 76.5 75.5 77.0 62.0 63.5 33.3 34.5 16.3 16.7 2004 74.3 76.3 75.0 77.1 61.4 63.4 32.7 34.4 15.5 16.4

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi

1989 75.0 82.4 75.5 83.0 62.0 69.6 33.3 40.8 16.3 22.7 2004 74.3 81.2 75.0 82.1 61.4 68.4 32.7 39.5 15.5 21.5


1989 75.0 76.0 75.5 75.9 62.0 62.2 33.3 33.4 16.3 16.3 2004 74.3 75.3 75.0 76.0 61.4 62.3 32.7 33.6 15.5 16.3

travmebi, mowamvlebi da gareSe faqtorebis zemoqmedebis zogierTi sxva Sedegi

1989 75.0 75.6 75.5 76.0 62.0 62.4 33.3 33.4 16.3 16.3 2004 74.3 74.9 75.0 75.6 61.4 62.0 32.7 33.2 15.5 15.9

158

159

d a n a r T i 2 . saqarTvelos demografiuli perspeqtivebi

cxrili 2.1. demografiuli maCveneblebi 2005-2050 ww.: prognozis saSualo varianti _ saqarTvelo afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis CaTvliT

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mosaxleoba (aTasi) 4120 3992 3884 3780 3686 3610 3552 3506 3450 3386 mosaxleobis cvlileba weliwadSi (aTasi) -36 -32 -27 -26 -24 -19 -15 -12 -14 -16 mosaxleobis cvlileba weliwadSi (%) -0.85 -0.79 -0.69 -0.68 -0.63 -0.52 -0.40 -0.33 -0.40 -0.47 dabadebulebi weliwadSi (aTasi) 52 51 49 46 44 42 41 40 38 37 gardacvlilebi weliwadSi (aTasi) 52 53 54 54 53 52 52 53 54 53 bunebrivi mateba weliwadSi (aTasi) 0.0 -2 -5 -8 -9 -10 -10 -13 -16 -16 Sobadoba (‰) 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.9 mokvdaoba (‰) 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.7 15.7 bunebrivi mateba (‰) 0.0 -0.5 -1.3 -2.1 -2.4 -2.8 -3.1 -3.7 -4.6 -4.7 Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis bruto koeficienti 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.83 gare migraciis saldo weliwadSi (aTasi) -32 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 0 0 0 gare migraciis saldos koeficienti (‰) -7.8 -6.3 -5.1 -4.0 -2.7 -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CvilTa mokvdaoba (1000 dabadebulze) 23 20 18 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 5 wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaoba (1000 dabadebulze) 26 23 21 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas: mamakacebi 67.3 68.1 69.0 69.9 70.7 71.5 72.4 73.3 74.2 75.0 qalebi 74.6 75.3 76.0 76.5 77.0 77.7 78.3 78.9 79.6 80.0 orive sqesi 71.1 71.7 72.5 73.2 73.9 74.6 75.4 76.1 76.9 77.5

160

d a n a r T i 3 . saqarTvelo da msoflio

cxrili 3.1. msoflios zogierTi qveynis mosaxleobis raodenoba

qveyana mosaxleobis raodenoba (milioni) mosaxleobis wili (%) 2007 w.

2007 w. 2025 w. 2050 w. 15 wlamde 65 da ufrosi

saqarTvelo* 3.8 3.7 3.4 19 16

msoflio 6625 7965 9294 28 7

avstralia 21.0 24.7 28.1 20 13 avstria 8.3 8.8 9.0 16 17 avRaneTi 31.9 50.3 81.9 45 2 azerbaijani 8.6 9.7 11.6 24 7 albaneTi 3.2 3.5 3.5 27 8 alJiri 34.1 43.2 50.0 30 5 aSS 302.2 349.4 419.9 20 12 angola 16.3 26.2 42.7 47 2 antiliis kunZulebi 0.2 0.2 0.2 23 10 arabeTis gaerTianebuli emiratebi 4.4 6.2 8.4 20 1 argentina 39.4 46.4 53.7 27 10 axali zelandia 4.2 4.7 5.0 21 13 axali kaledonia 0.2 0.3 0.4 28 7 bangladeSi 149.0 190.0 231.0 33 4 barbadosi 0.3 0.3 0.3 22 12 bahamis kunZulebi 0.3 0.4 0.5 28 6 bahreini 0.8 1.0 1.2 27 3 belarusi 9.7 9.0 7.8 16 14 belgia 10.6 10.8 11.0 17 17 belizi 0.3 0.4 0.6 41 4 benini 9.0 14.5 22.5 44 3 bolivia 9.8 13.3 16.0 38 4 bosnia-hercegovina 3.8 3.7 3.1 18 13 botsvana 1.8 1.7 1.7 38 3 brazilia 189.3 228.9 259.8 28 6 brunei 0.4 0.5 0.6 30 3 bulgareTi 7.7 6.6 5.0 13 17 burkinafaso 14.8 23.7 37.5 47 3 burundi 8.5 15.0 28.3 45 3 butani 0.9 1.1 1.3 33 5 gaboni 1.3 1.7 2.1 26 5 gaerTianebuli samefo 61.0 65.8 69.2 18 16 gaiana 0.8 0.8 0.6 32 5 gambia 1.5 2.2 3.2 42 3 gana 23.0 33.1 47.8 40 4 germania 82.3 79.6 71.4 14 19 gvadelupa 0.5 0.5 0.5 26 8 gvatemala 13.4 19.9 27.5 43 4 gvinea 10.1 15.7 24.5 46 3 gvineabisau 1.7 2.9 5.3 48 3 grenada 0.1 0.1 0.1 32 5 dania 5.5 5.6 5.5 19 15

161


2007 w. 2025 w. 2050 w. 15 wlamde 65 da ufrosi

dasavleT sahara 0.5 0.8 0.9 31 2 dominika 0.1 0.1 0.1 29 10 dominikas respublika 9.4 11.9 14.7 33 6 egvipte 73.4 95.9 117.9 33 5 eTiopia 77.1 108.7 145.9 43 3 ekvadori 13.5 17.5 20.4 33 6 ekvatoruli gvinea 0.5 0.8 1.2 42 4 erayi 29.0 43.2 61.9 42 3 eritrea 4.9 7.7 11.5 43 2 espaneTi 45.3 46.2 43.9 14 17 estoneTi 1.3 1.2 1.0 15 17 vanuatu 0.2 0.4 0.5 41 3 venesuela 27.5 35.2 41.8 31 5 vietnami 85.1 103.6 116.9 29 7 zambia 11.5 14.8 18.4 46 2 zimbabve 13.3 16.0 19.1 41 3 TurqeTi 74.0 87.8 88.7 28 6 TurqmeneTi 5.4 6.6 7.4 34 5 iamaika 2.7 3.0 3.4 30 8 iaponia 127.7 119.3 95.2 14 21 iemeni 22.4 36.6 58.0 47 2 indoeTi 1131.9 1391.2 1747.3 33 5 indonezia 231.6 271.2 296.9 28 6 iordania 5.7 7.7 9.8 37 3 irani 71.2 88.2 100.2 29 5 irlandia 4.4 4.9 5.1 20 11 islandia 0.3 0.3 0.4 21 12 israeli 7.3 9.3 11.2 28 10 italia 59.3 58.7 55.9 14 20 kamboja 14.4 19.6 25.5 37 3 kameruni 18.1 25.5 34.9 42 3 kanada 32.9 37.6 41.6 18 13 kape verde 0.5 0.7 0.9 38 6 katari 0.9 1.1 1.4 23 1 kenia 36.9 51.3 65.2 42 2 kviprosi 1.0 1.1 1.1 19 11 kolumbia 46.2 55.6 61.9 30 5 komorebi 0.7 1.0 1.5 42 3 kongo 3.8 6.1 9.6 42 3 kongo (demokratiuli respublika) 62.6 107.5 186.8 47 3 korea (CrdiloeTi) 23.3 25.8 28.4 27 8 korea (samxreTi) 48.5 49.1 42.3 18 10 kosta rika 4.5 5.6 6.3 28 6 kotdivuari 20.2 27.4 36.4 42 3 kuba 11.2 11.5 10.8 19 11 laosi 5.9 8.5 11.8 44 4 latvia 2.3 2.2 1.8 14 17 lesoTo 1.8 1.7 1.6 39 5 libani 3.9 4.6 5.0 27 8 liberia 3.8 6.8 12.5 47 2 libia 6.2 8.1 9.7 30 4

162


2007 w. 2025 w. 2050 w. 15 wlamde 65 da ufrosi litva 3.4 3.1 2.9 16 16 luqsemburgi 0.5 0.5 0.6 19 14 madagaskari 18.3 28.2 41.8 45 3 mavritania 3.1 4.5 6.4 40 4 makao (CineTi) 0.5 0.6 0.6 15 7 makedonia 2.0 2.0 1.7 20 11 malavi 13.1 20.6 30.9 46 3 malaizia 27.2 34.5 40.5 33 4 maldivebi 0.3 0.4 0.5 34 4 mali 12.3 20.6 34.2 48 4 malta 0.4 0.4 0.3 17 13 maroko 31.7 38.9 45.3 30 5 martinika 0.4 0.4 0.4 22 12 meqsika 106.5 124.7 132.3 32 6 mianma (birma) 49.8 55.4 58.7 27 6 mozambiki 20.4 27.5 37.2 43 3 moldova 4.0 3.7 3.0 20 10 montenegro 0.6 0.6 0.6 20 13 monRoleTi 2.6 3.1 3.4 29 4 namibia 2.1 2.6 3.0 41 3 nepali 27.8 36.1 42.6 41 4 nigeri 14.2 26.3 53.2 48 3 nigeria 144.4 204.9 281.6 45 3 niderlandebi 16.8 16.9 16.8 18 14 nikaragua 5.6 7.5 9.8 39 4 norvegia 4.7 5.2 5.8 19 15 omani 2.7 3.1 3.9 33 3 pakistani 169.3 228.8 295.0 40 4 palestina 4.0 6.2 8.8 44 3 panama 3.3 4.2 5.0 30 6 papua axali gvinea 6.3 8.6 11.2 41 2 paragvai 6.1 8.0 9.9 36 5 peru 27.9 34.1 39.0 32 6 poloneTi 38.1 36.7 30.5 16 13 portugalia 10.7 10.4 9.3 16 17 puertoriko 3.9 4.1 3.8 21 13 reunioni 0.8 1.0 1.1 27 7 ruanda 9.3 14.6 21.7 46 3 rumineTi 21.6 19.7 17.1 16 15 ruseTi 141.7 128.5 109.4 15 14 saberZneTi 11.2 11.3 10.8 14 19 salvadori 6.9 9.0 11.9 35 5 samoa 0.2 0.2 0.2 41 4 samxreT afrika 47.9 51.5 54.8 32 4 saudis arabeTi 27.6 35.7 49.7 38 2 safrangeTi 61.7 66.1 70.0 18 16 safrangeTis polinezia 0.3 0.3 0.4 28 5 seiSelebi 0.1 0.1 0.1 25 8 senegali 12.4 18.0 25.3 44 4 serbeTi 9.5 9.6 9.3 20 15 svazilendi 1.1 1.0 0.8 41 4 sieraleone 5.3 7.6 10.9 42 4 singapuri 4.6 5.3 5.3 19 8 siria 19.9 27.5 34.9 37 3 slovakeTi 5.5 5.2 4.7 16 12

163


2007 w. 2025 w. 2050 w. 15 wlamde 65 da ufrosi slovenia 2.0 2.0 1.9 14 16 solomonis kunZulebi 0.5 0.7 1.0 40 3 somali 9.1 14.9 25.5 45 3 somxeTi 3.0 3.4 3.4 22 11 sudani 38.6 54.3 73.0 41 4 surinami 0.5 0.5 0.5 30 6 taivani 22.9 23.1 18.9 18 10 tailandi 65.7 70.2 68.9 23 7 tanzania 38.7 57.4 81.5 44 3 tajikeTi 7.1 9.4 11.4 32 3 togo 6.6 9.9 14.1 43 3 trinidad-tobago 1.4 1.5 1.4 25 6 tunisi 10.2 12.1 13.2 26 6 uganda 28.5 55.9 117.0 50 3 uzbekeTi 26.5 32.9 37.2 35 5 ukraina 46.5 41.7 33.4 14 16 ungreTi 10.1 9.6 8.9 15 16 urugvai 3.3 3.5 3.6 24 13 filipinebi 88.7 120.2 149.8 35 4 fineTi 5.3 5.6 5.7 17 16 fiji 0.9 0.9 0.9 31 4 quveiTi 2.8 3.9 5.1 26 2 yazaxeTi 15.5 17.1 17.4 27 8 yirgizeTi 5.2 6.6 8.1 32 6 SvedeTi 9.1 9.9 10.5 17 17 Sveicaria 7.5 8.1 8.1 16 16 Srilanka 20.1 21.2 19.5 27 6 Cadi 10.8 17.5 29.4 46 3 CexeTi 10.3 10.2 9.4 15 14 Cile 16.6 19.1 20.2 25 8 CineTi 1318.0 1476.0 1437.0 20 8 centraluri afrikis respublika 4.3 5.8 7.6 43 4 xorvatia 4.4 4.3 3.8 16 17 jibuti 0.8 1.1 1.5 39 3 haiti 9.0 11.5 14.3 39 4 hondurasi 7.1 9.7 12.1 38 4 honkongi (CineTi) 6.9 8.1 8.7 14 12


* 2007 w. SefasebiTi monacemebiT (afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionebis gareSe). 2025 da 2050 ww. _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

164

cxrili 3.2. mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis maCveneblebi msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi

qveyana

2007 weli, ‰ Sobadobis jamobrivi koeficienti

Sobadoba mokvdaoba bunebrivi mateba

2007 2045-2050

saqarTvelo* 13.0 12.7 0.3 1.7 1.7

msoflio 21 9 12 2.7 2.0

avstralia 13 6 7 1.8 1.9 avstria 9 9 0 1.4 1.8 avRaneTi 47 21 26 6.8 3.1 azerbaijani 18 6 12 2.1 1.9 albaneTi 14 6 8 1.8 1.9 alJiri 21 4 17 2.4 1.9 aSS 14 8 6 2.1 1.9 angola 49 22 27 6.8 3.0 antiliis kunZulebi 13 8 5 1.8 1.9 arabeTis gaerTianebuli emiratebi 17 2 15 2.7 1.9 argentina 19 8 11 2.5 1.9 axali zelandia 14 7 7 2.0 1.9 axali kaledonia 18 5 13 2.3 1.9 bangladeSi 27 8 19 3.0 1.9 barbadosi 14 8 6 1.9 1.9 bahamis kunZulebi 16 7 9 1.9 1.9 bahreini 21 3 18 2.6 1.9 belarusi 9 14 -5 1.2 1.6 belgia 11 10 1 1.7 1.8 belizi 27 5 22 3.3 1.9 benini 42 12 30 5.7 2.5 bolivia 29 8 21 3.7 1.9 bosnia-hercegovina 9 9 0 1.2 1.6 botsvana 26 27 -1 3.1 1.9 brazilia 21 6 15 2.3 1.9 brunei 19 3 16 2.3 1.9 bulgareTi 10 15 -5 1.4 1.7 burkinafaso 45 15 30 6.2 2.7 burundi 46 16 30 6.8 3.5 butani 20 7 13 2.9 1.9 gaboni 28 12 16 3.4 2.0 gaerTianebuli samefo 12 10 2 1.8 1.9 gaiana 21 9 12 2.7 1.9 gambia 38 11 27 5.1 2.3 gana 33 10 23 4.4 2.1 germania 8 10 -2 1.3 1.7 gvadelupa 16 6 10 2.2 1.9 gvatemala 34 6 28 4.4 1.9 gvinea 42 14 28 5.7 2.5 gvineabisau 50 19 31 7.1 3.2 grenada 19 7 12 2.1 1.9 dania 12 10 2 1.9 1.9

165

qveyana



2007 2045-2050

dasavleT sahara 28 8 20 2.9 1.9 dominika 24 7 17 3.0 1.9 dominikas respublika 24 5 19 2.9 1.9 egvipte 27 6 21 3.1 1.9 eTiopia 40 15 25 5.4 2.5 ekvadori 26 6 20 3.1 1.9 ekvatoruli gvinea 40 16 24 5.6 2.6 erayi 36 11 25 4.9 2.2 eritrea 40 10 30 5.3 2.4 espaneTi 11 8 3 1.4 1.8 estoneTi 11 13 -2 1.6 1.9 vanuatu 31 6 25 4.0 2.1 venesuela 22 5 17 2.7 1.9 vietnami 19 5 14 2.1 1.9 zambia 41 22 19 5.5 2.4 zimbabve 31 21 10 3.8 2.0 TurqeTi 19 6 13 2.2 1.9 TurqmeneTi 25 8 17 2.8 1.9 iamaika 17 6 11 2.1 1.9 iaponia 9 9 0 1.3 1.6 iemeni 40 9 31 6.2 2.5 indoeTi 24 8 16 2.9 1.9 indonezia 21 7 14 2.4 1.9 iordania 28 4 24 3.5 1.9 irani 18 6 12 2.0 1.9 irlandia 15 7 8 1.9 1.9 islandia 15 6 9 2.1 1.9 israeli 21 6 15 2.8 1.9 italia 10 9 1 1.4 1.7 kamboja 26 9 17 3.4 2.0 kameruni 37 14 23 4.9 2.2 kanada 11 7 4 1.5 1.9 kape verde 30 5 25 3.5 2.0 katari 17 2 15 2.8 1.9 kenia 40 12 28 4.9 2.4 kviprosi 12 6 6 1.5 1.9 kolumbia 20 6 14 2.4 1.9 komorebi 37 7 30 4.9 2.2 kongo 41 14 27 5.3 2.3 kongo (demokratiuli respublika) 50 19 31 6.7 2.5 korea (CrdiloeTi) 16 7 9 2.7 1.9 korea (samxreTi) 9 5 4 1.1 1.6 kosta rika 16 4 12 1.9 1.9 kotdivuari 38 14 24 5.0 2.2 kuba 11 8 3 1.5 1.8 laosi 36 12 24 4.8 1.9 latvia 10 14 -4 1.4 1.7 lesoTo 28 25 3 3.5 2.0 libani 19 5 14 2.3 1.9 liberia 50 19 31 6.8 3.3

166

qveyana



2007 2045-2050

libia 24 4 20 3.0 1.9 litva 9 13 -4 1.3 1.7 luqsemburgi 12 8 4 1.7 1.9 madagaskari 40 12 28 5.2 2.3 mavritania 35 9 26 4.8 2.2 makao (CineTi) 8 3 5 0.9 1.3 makedonia 11 9 2 1.4 1.8 malavi 46 18 28 6.3 2.6 malaizia 23 5 18 2.9 1.9 maldivebi 19 3 16 2.8 1.9 mali 48 16 32 6.6 2.8 malta 10 8 2 1.4 1.8 maroko 21 6 15 2.4 1.9 martinika 13 7 6 2.0 1.9 meqsika 21 5 16 2.4 1.9 mianma (birma) 20 10 10 2.3 1.9 mozambiki 41 20 21 5.4 2.4 moldova 11 12 -1 1.3 1.8 montenegro 12 9 3 1.6 1.9 monRoleTi 18 6 12 2.0 1.9 namibia 27 13 14 3.6 2.0 nepali 28 9 19 3.1 2.0 nigeri 48 15 33 7.1 3.8 nigeria 43 18 25 5.9 2.4 niderlandebi 11 8 3 1.8 1.9 nikaragua 28 5 23 3.2 1.9 norvegia 13 9 4 1.9 1.9 omani 25 3 22 3.4 2.0 pakistani 31 8 23 4.1 2.1 palestina 33 4 29 4.6 ... panama 20 4 16 2.4 1.9 papua axali gvinea 32 10 22 4.1 2.1 paragvai 27 6 21 3.5 2.0 peru 21 6 15 2.5 1.9 poloneTi 10 10 0 1.3 1.6 portugalia 10 10 0 1.4 1.8 puertoriko 13 7 6 1.7 1.9 reunioni 19 6 13 2.4 1.9 ruanda 43 16 27 6.1 2.6 rumineTi 10 12 -2 1.3 1.7 ruseTi 10 15 -5 1.3 1.7 saberZneTi 10 9 1 1.3 1.7 salvadori 25 6 19 2.9 1.9 samoa 29 6 23 4.4 2.2 samxreT afrika 23 15 8 2.7 1.9 saudis arabeTi 30 3 27 4.1 1.9 safrangeTi 13 9 4 2.0 1.9 safrangeTis polinezia 18 5 13 2.2 1.9 seiSelebi 17 8 9 2.1 ... senegali 39 10 29 5.3 2.3 serbeTi 11 12 -1 1.8 1.9 svazilendi 28 29 -1 3.6 2.1 sieraleone 48 23 25 6.1 3.1

167

qveyana



2007 2045-2050

singapuri 10 4 6 1.3 1.6 siria 28 4 24 3.5 1.9 slovakeTi 10 10 0 1.3 1.6 slovenia 9 9 0 1.3 1.7 solomonis kunZulebi 34 8 26 4.5 2.1 somali 46 17 29 6.8 2.8 somxeTi 15 9 6 1.7 1.8 sudani 33 11 22 4.5 2.2 surinami 21 7 14 2.5 1.9 taivani 9 6 3 1.1 ... tailandi 14 7 7 1.7 1.9 tanzania 40 15 25 5.4 ... tajikeTi 26 7 19 3.4 1.9 togo 38 10 28 5.1 2.0 trinidad-tobago 14 8 6 1.6 1.9 tunisi 17 6 11 2.0 1.9 uganda 48 16 32 6.7 2.8 uzbekeTi 24 7 17 2.7 1.9 ukraina 10 16 -6 1.3 1.6 ungreTi 10 13 -3 1.3 1.8 urugvai 15 9 6 2.1 1.9 filipinebi 27 5 22 3.4 1.9 fineTi 11 9 2 1.8 1.9 fiji 21 6 15 2.5 1.9 quveiTi 21 2 19 2.6 1.9 yazaxeTi 20 10 10 2.5 1.9 yirgizeTi 23 7 16 2.8 1.9 SvedeTi 12 10 2 1.9 1.9 Sveicaria 10 8 2 1.4 1.8 Srilanka 18 7 11 2.0 1.9 Cadi 47 16 31 6.5 2.8 CexeTi 10 10 0 1.3 1.7 Cile 15 5 10 2.0 1.9 CineTi 12 7 5 1.6 1.9 centraluri afrikis respublika 38 19 19 5.0 2.3 xorvatia 10 12 -2 1.4 1.9 jibuti 30 12 18 4.2 2.1 haiti 29 11 18 4.0 2.1 hondurasi 27 6 21 3.3 1.9 honkongi (CineTi) 10 5 5 1.0 1.3

wyaro: 2007 w. _ 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007. World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007. 2045-2050 _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

168

cxrili 3.3. mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti, CvilTa mokvdaoba da sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba dabadebisas msoflios zogierT qveyanaSi

qveyana

aRwarmoebis neto koeficienti

CvilTa mokvdaoba (1000 cocxlad dabadebulze)

sicocxlis xangrZlivoba (orive sqesi)

2005-2010 2040-2050 2007 2045-2050 2005-2010 2045-2050

saqarTvelo* 0.8 0.8 22 10 71 77

msoflio 1.1 1.0 52 23 67 75

avstralia 0.9 0.9 5.0 2.5 81 86 avstria 0.7 0.8 3.6 3.4 80 84 avRaneTi 2.0 0.9 166 76 44 59 azerbaijani 0.9 0.9 10 38 68 75 albaneTi 1.0 1.0 8 9 76 82 alJiri 1.3 1.0 30 11 72 79 aSS 0.9 0.9 6.5 4.1 78 83 angola 2.1 1.0 141 64 43 58 antiliis kunZulebi 1.0 0.9 9 7 75 81 arabeTis gaerTianebuli emiratebi 1.3 1.0 9 5 79 83 argentina 1.1 1.0 14.4 6 75 81 axali zelandia 1.0 1.0 5.1 2.8 80 85 axali kaledonia 1.1 1.0 6 4 76 82 bangladeSi 1.1 1.0 65 13 64 76 barbadosi 0.8 0.9 14.2 6.2 77 82 bahamis kunZulebi 1.1 1.0 12.7 6.0 74 81 bahreini 1.0 1.0 9 6 76 81 belarusi 0.7 0.8 7 6 69 76 belgia 0.8 0.9 4.4 3.3 79 84 belizi 1.3 1.0 25 9 76 81 benini 1.9 1.0 98 48 57 71 bolivia 1.5 1.0 51 14 66 77 bosnia-hercegovina 0.7 0.8 7 6 75 80 botsvana 1.3 0.9 56 15 51 67 brazilia 1.0 1.0 27 8 72 80 brunei 1.1 1.0 7 4 77 81 bulgareTi 0.6 0.8 9.7 6.0 73 79 burkinafaso 2.1 1.0 81 61 52 65 burundi 1.8 1.0 107 45 50 64 butani 2.1 1.0 40 16 66 76 gaboni 1.8 1.0 62 20 57 69 gaerTianebuli samefo 0.9 0.9 4.9 3.0 79 84 gaiana 1.0 1.0 48 19 67 76 gambia 1.6 1.0 75 40 59 72 gana 1.9 1.0 59 23 60 71 germania 0.7 0.8 3.8 3.3 79 84 gvadelupa 0.9 0.9 6.9 3.8 79 84 gvatemala 1.8 1.0 34 8 70 78 gvinea 1.7 1.0 113 43 56 72 gvineabisau 1.7 1.0 117 50 46 62

169

qveyana




2005-2010 2040-2050 2007 2045-2050 2005-2010 2045-2050

grenada ... ... 17 12 69 76 dania 0.8 0.9 3.9 3.1 78 83 dasavleT sahara 1.4 1.0 49 12 66 76 dominika ... ... 22.2 ... ... ... dominikas respublika 1.1 1.0 30 10 72 78 egvipte 1.1 1.0 33 10 71 79 eTiopia 2.0 1.0 77 35 53 67 ekvadori 1.2 1.0 25 6 75 80 ekvatoruli gvinea 1.9 1.0 101 38 52 66 erayi 2.0 1.0 94 14 60 76 eritrea 1.9 1.0 59 23 58 70 espaneTi 0.6 0.8 3.8 3.2 81 85 estoneTi 0.6 0.8 4.4 4.3 71 79 vanuatu 1.6 1.0 27 9 70 78 venesuela 1.2 1.0 17.5 7.4 74 80 vietnami 1.0 1.0 18 9 74 80 zambia 1.7 1.0 100 36 42 57 zimbabve 1.1 1.0 60 22 44 64 TurqeTi 1.0 1.0 23 10 72 79 TurqmeneTi 1.3 1.0 74 35 63 73 iamaika 1.0 1.0 24 9 73 78 iaponia 0.7 0.9 2.8 2.6 83 87 iemeni 2.7 1.0 75 15 63 75 indoeTi 1.0 1.0 58 23 65 76 indonezia 1.0 1.0 34 9 71 79 iordania 1.9 1.0 24 8 73 79 irani 1.0 1.0 32 10 71 78 irlandia 0.9 1.0 3.8 3.0 79 84 islandia 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.1 82 86 israeli 1.1 1.0 3.9 3.4 81 85 italia 0.6 0.8 3.7 3.5 81 85 kamboja 1.5 1.0 71 15 60 74 kameruni 1.8 1.0 74 38 50 64 kanada 0.8 0.9 5.3 3.4 81 85 kape verde 1.4 1.0 28 9 72 79 katari 1.4 1.0 7 5 76 81 kenia 1.3 0.9 77 28 54 67 kviprosi 0.9 0.9 6 4 79 84 kolumbia 1.2 1.0 19 10 73 79 komorebi 1.7 1.0 59 13 65 76 kongo 2.1 1.0 75 25 55 68 kongo (demokratiuli respublika) 2.2 1.0 120 53 47 61 korea (CrdiloeTi) 0.9 0.9 ... 28 67 73 korea (samxreTi) 0.6 0.9 5 3 79 84 kosta rika 1.2 1.0 10 6 79 82 kotdivuari 1.6 1.0 104 62 48 63 kuba 0.8 0.9 6.2 2.2 78 83 laosi 1.9 1.0 85 13 64 76 latvia 0.6 0.8 7.6 5.1 73 80

170

qveyana




2005-2010 2040-2050 2007 2045-2050 2005-2010 2045-2050

lesoTo 1.7 1.0 91 24 43 56 libani 1.0 1.0 17 9 72 79 liberia 2.2 1.0 138 57 46 61 libia 1.3 1.0 21 9 74 80 litva 0.7 0.8 6.8 4.7 73 80 luqsemburgi 0.8 0.9 3.2 2.9 79 84 madagaskari 2.0 1.0 79 26 59 71 mavritania 1.9 1.0 74 36 64 74 makao (CineTi) 0.7 0.9 ... 4 81 86 makedonia 0.9 0.9 13 7 74 80 malavi 1.9 0.9 96 45 48 60 malaizia 1.1 1.0 10 5 74 80 maldivebi 1.9 1.0 15 10 69 78 mali 2.1 1.0 96 69 55 68 malta 0.9 0.9 6.0 4.2 79 84 maroko 1.0 1.0 38 10 71 79 martinika 0.8 0.9 5 4 80 84 meqsika 1.1 1.0 21 6 76 81 mianma (birma) 0.9 1.0 75 27 62 75 mozambiki 1.7 0.9 108 38 42 57 moldova 0.7 0.9 12 9 69 76 montenegro ... ... 9.5 ... 75 80 monRoleTi 1.0 1.0 41 17 67 76 namibia 1.4 0.9 55 14 53 62 nepali 1.5 1.0 51 13 64 76 nigeri 2.2 1.0 126 62 57 70 nigeria 1.7 1.0 100 49 47 62 niderlandebi 0.7 0.9 4.4 3.6 80 84 nikaragua 1.6 1.0 26 11 73 78 norvegia 0.9 1.0 3.2 2.4 80 85 omani 2.4 1.0 17 7 76 81 pakistani 1.8 1.0 78 29 66 76 palestina ... ... 25 8 73 80 panama 1.1 1.0 15 7 76 80 papua axali gvinea 1.6 1.0 64 28 57 68 paragvai 1.6 1.0 36 15 72 77 peru 1.1 1.0 24 9 71 78 poloneTi 0.7 0.9 6.0 4.3 76 81 portugalia 0.7 0.9 3.5 3.7 78 83 puertoriko 1.0 0.9 9 5 79 83 reunioni 0.9 0.9 7 7 76 81 ruanda 1.7 0.9 86 53 46 62 rumineTi 0.6 0.8 14.0 6.7 73 79 ruseTi 0.7 0.8 10 9 66 73 saberZneTi 0.6 0.8 3.8 3.7 80 84 salvadori 1.2 1.0 25 7 72 79 samoa 1.5 1.0 20 10 72 78 samxreT afrika 1.0 0.9 43 19 49 63 saudis arabeTi 2.2 1.0 16 8 73 79 safrangeTi 0.9 0.9 3.7 3.2 81 85 safrangeTis polinezia 1.2 1.0 6.3 4.9 76 81 seiSelebi ... ... 11 ... ... ...

171

qveyana




2005-2010 2040-2050 2007 2045-2050 2005-2010 2045-2050

senegali 1.9 1.0 61 45 63 71 serbeTi 0.9 0.9 13 6 74 79 svazilendi 1.7 1.0 73 22 40 54 sieraleone 1.7 0.9 158 102 43 57 singapuri 0.9 0.9 2.6 ... 80 85 siria 1.5 1.0 19 8 74 80 slovakeTi 0.7 0.8 6.8 4.3 75 80 slovenia 0.6 0.8 3.3 ... 78 83 solomonis kunZulebi 1.8 1.0 48 20 64 73 somali 2.3 1.0 117 52 48 64 somxeTi 0.8 0.9 26 15 72 77 sudani 1.6 1.0 69 26 59 70 surinami 0.9 0.9 20 12 70 77 taivani ... ... 5.0 ... 77 ... tailandi 0.8 0.9 20 6 71 78 tanzania 1.8 1.0 78 ... 50 ... tajikeTi 1.5 1.0 65 33 67 74 togo 2.0 1.0 91 46 58 70 trinidad-tobago 0.8 0.9 15 6 70 79 tunisi 1.0 1.0 20 8 74 80 uganda 2.3 1.0 83 30 52 65 uzbekeTi 1.3 1.0 58 30 67 74 ukraina 0.7 0.8 10 7 68 75 ungreTi 0.6 0.8 5.7 4.3 73 80 urugvai 1.1 1.0 14.5 4.6 76 82 filipinebi 1.3 1.0 27 9 72 79 fineTi 0.9 0.9 3.0 2.6 79 84 fiji 1.1 1.0 16 9 69 76 quveiTi 1.1 1.0 8 5 78 82 yazaxeTi 1.0 1.0 29 9 67 77 yirgizeTi 1.2 1.0 50 26 66 74 SvedeTi 0.8 1.0 2.8 2.3 81 85 Sveicaria 0.7 0.8 4.2 3.1 82 86 Srilanka 1.0 1.0 11 7 72 78 Cadi 1.9 1.0 102 63 51 65 CexeTi 0.6 0.8 3.3 3.2 77 82 Cile 1.1 1.0 8.4 4.0 79 82 CineTi 0.9 0.9 27 10 73 79 centraluri afrikis respublika 1.6 1.0 102 44 45 59 xorvatia 0.8 0.8 5.7 4.2 76 81 jibuti 1.7 1.0 67 28 55 69 haiti 1.5 1.0 57 17 61 74 hondurasi 1.5 1.0 23 13 70 77 honkongi (CineTi) 0.7 0.8 1.8 ... 82 87

wyaro: 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. Washington, 2007; World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999. 2045-2050 _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

172

cxrili 3.4. saerTaSoriso migraciis saSualo wliuri saldo

migraciis saldo (aTasi)

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040

2040-2050

saqarTvelo -10.7 -16.0 -17.5 -88.5 -33.7 -20.0 -10.0 -2.0 0.0

ganviTarebuli qveynebi 556 1088 1530 2493 2902 2268 2269 2272 2272 naklebad ganviTarebuli qveynebi -556 -1088 -1530 -2493 -2902 -2268 -2269 -2272 -2272 afrika -242 -289 -267 -310 -416 -377 -395 -393 -393 azia -22 -377 -451 -1340 -1311 -1210 -1221 -1222 -1222 evropa -31 288 441 1051 1271 799 805 808 808 laTinuri amerika da karibebi -293 -415 -781 -775 -1108 -616 -590 -595 -595 CrdiloeT amerika 479 748 972 1277 1453 1305 1300 1300 1300 okeania 109 44 86 96 111 99 101 102 102

migraciis saldo (‰)

saqarTvelo -2.5 -3.4 -3.5 -19.2 -8.5 -5.1 -2.7 -0.6 0.0

ganviTarebuli qveynebi 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 naklebad ganviTarebuli qveynebi -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 afrika -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 azia -0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 evropa -0.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 laTinuri amerika da karibebi -0.1 -1.3 -1.9 -1.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 CrdiloeT amerika 2.2 3.1 3.6 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 okeania 6.2 2.1 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.9

wyaro: World Population Prospects. The 2006 Revision UN N-Y, 2007; World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision V. 1: Comprehensive Tables UN N-Y, 1999. 2000-2050 _ prognozis saSualo varianti.

173

Giorgi Tsuladze

Avtandil Sulaberidze

Nika Maglaferidze

Giorgi Mamardashvili

Demographic Development of Georgia:

Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow Summary

The aim of the work is to demonstrate the flow of demographic processes in Georgia and to

analyze them. Based on this consideration, such processes as natality, mortality, and life

expectancy, natural increase of population and reproduction, as well as nuptiality, divorce and

international migration are analyzed. Besides, a special attention is paid to the population number

and structure, ethnic self-identification and ethnodemographic processes. Demographic prospects of

Georgia are also presented. Finally, a comparative analysis is made between the demographic

processes of Georgia and other countries of the world.

The issues discussed in the work cover the period of 1960-2050. This period is divided in 3

main parts: 1. Demographic development of Georgia in 1960-2000 (Yesterday), 2. Demographic

development of Georgia in 2001-2006 (Today), and 3. Demographic prospects of Georgia for 2010-

2050 (Tomorrow).

The study of demographic situation and demographic processes is extremely important in

the contemporary society. Out of 5 main global issues the world community is facing today, the one

related to demographic problems is one of the most essential, especially for Georgia having a really

hard demographic situation.

Although the main demographic problem the world faces is the population growth, Georgia

experiences the contrary problem, namely, depopulation.

While analyzing demographic processes, the authors don’t restrict themselves by the

analysis of the existing statistical material. The analysis of the official statistical material make the

authors conclude that the existing statistical data don’t often represent the real situation as in some

cases demographic registration is incomplete. Besides, based on a certain analysis, the authors state

that incomplete demographic registration is not characteristic to the post-soviet period but took

place in the soviet period too, and was traced back to 1960. Probably this phenomenon was also

characteristic to the preceding period, however, not having sufficient demographic information, it is

impossible to give exact estimation. Therefore, the issue of incomplete registration is covered since

1960.

174

Demographic registration mostly concerned mortality registration, though, in certain periods

natality registration was also incomplete, while international migration represented the worst case.

In order to correct-reconstruct mortality rates, the Coale-Demeny model life tables were applied.

It is natural that a different picture of mortality would have had an impact on the overall

ratio of mortality, mortality rates by sex and age, and life expectancy, as well as the population

number and accordingly, fertility rates and other demographic data. Therefore, in the presented

work, the flow of demographic processes in Georgia since 1960 is presented in a new light.

Demographic Development of Georgia in 1960-2000

The last population census was held in Georgia in January 2002. Before that the population

census was held in January 1989. In 1990s - the period between the censuses, because of the

political, socioeconomic and public events, the registration of demographic events and migration

considerably worsened, which complicated the estimation of the population number and age-sex

structure. Because of this fact, besides official statistics, unofficial statistics in the form of scientific

estimations appeared, whose data considerably differed and differ from the ones provided by

Department of Statistics of Georgia.

The 1990s estimations of the population number, like the ones by the Department of

Statistics, are mainly based on the 1989 population census data. Based on the proper analysis, the

authors conclude that even according to the officially registered data of international migration and

natural increase, by 1989 the population of Georgia was 73-95 thousands less than suggested by the

census data. In addition, based on the same data, the population number registered during the 1970,

1979, and 1989 censuses does not coincide with the population number estimated on the basis of the

data of natural increase of population and international migration. On the whole, the population of

Georgia must have been no more than 5327 thousands and not 5400 thousands as suggested by the

population census results.

Concerning 1990-2000s, in comparison to 1980s, the registration of demographic events

became even worse. The data by Department of Statistics and our estimations starting from 1960

increasingly differ. In 1970 this difference made 107 thousands, in 1980 - 157 thousands, in 1990 -

246 thousands and in 2000 - 363 thousands. Thus, according to our estimations, in 1960-2000 the

population of Georgia was always less than it was suggested by the respective data of Department

of Statistics. Besides, in 1960-1991, though with varying rate, natural increase of population took

place in Georgia, which changed into decline from 1992.

In 1960-1991 the population of Georgia increased by 1099 thousands, while in 1991-2000 it

declined by 882 thousands. The main component influencing the formation of the population in

1960-1991 was natural increase, while in 1992-2000 it was international migration.

175

In 2000, in comparison to 1960, sex-age structure of the population of Georgia underwent

considerable changes. In this period, the portion of the population under 15 was gradually

decreasing and the portion of those over 65 was steadily increasing. According to the estimations, in

comparison to 1960, in 2000 the portion of the population under 15 decreased from 29,5 % to

20,6%. At the same time, the portion of those over 65 increased from 7,6% to 14,3%. Currently,

there is a very high level of demographic aging in Georgia.

The analysis of any natality data is based on the information about birth rates. Therefore, the

more accurate the registration of births, the more reliable the final data and their analysis.

According to the UN experts, in 1960-1965 the incomplete registration of births in Georgia

was up to 6%. The situation improved in 1965-1980, however it got worse in 1990s and reached

large scales in 1995-2000 (incomplete registration was within 26-27%).

In 1960-1979, despite the increase of fertile age women, the number of births was declining

in Georgia. The number of fertile age women started to decline in 1990s, along with the further

decline in births. For instance, in comparison to 1960, in 2000 the number of the 15-49-year-old

women reduced by 10%, while the number of births reduced twice. The analysis revealed that the

decline in births was caused by the changes in reproductive behavior rather than the negative impact

of age structure.

Concerning the number of births per 1000 people (fertility rates), despite the fact that it

represents quite a general indicator of natality, it is still sufficient to illustrate a considerable decline

in fertility rates in Georgia in 1960-2000 (1960 - 25 ‰, 1980 - 18‰, 2000 - 11-12‰).

After dissemination of intra-family regulation of childbearing, fertility rates have been less

than natural fertility, which means that fertility potential has not been fully realized. In order to

estimate the realization of fertility potential, Coale indices have been applied describing

hypothetical maximal intensity of fertility and characterizing the deviation of existing fertility rates

from the possible maximum.

In 1960-1970 the decline in childbirth was caused by the increase of intra-family regulation

of childbearing, while in 1970s the decline in childbirth was mostly caused by the worsening of

marriage structure. In 1979-1989 fertility index continues to decline though with less extent than in

1970-1979. At the same time, marital fertility index considerably declines, especially in comparison

to 1970-1979. Its decline would have been even larger if not the improvement of marital situation

(the number of fertile age married women increased).

1990s were unprecedented in sense of the change of Coale indices. Between 1989 and 1999

Coale index for total births reduced by the same extent as in the previous 30 years (1959-1989). At

the same time, the decline in Coale index for marital births was greater than the decline in Coale

176

index for total births that reflects the ongoing changes in reproductive behavior. Besides, the portion

of fertile age married women considerably decreased.

Despite certain fluctuations, in 1960-1990 total fertility rate tended to decline. By 1991 it

reached the replacement level fertility, while since 1992 it further declined, and based on the

estimations, remained within 1,6-1,7. Thus, since 1992 fertility rates do not provide full generation

renewal in Georgia.

It is also important to take into consideration birth order as in 1960 the portion of first

children was 34,7% within total number of births, while the portion of third and next children was

36,5%. By 2000 the situation drastically changed and the portion of first children within total

number of births increased up to 51,9%, while the portion of third and next children reduced to

14,8%.

Out-of-wedlock birth rate is also noteworthy. Between 1979 and 1999 Coale index for out-

of-wedlock births in Georgia multiplied by four times. The portion of out-of-wedlock births among

total number of births was quite low in 1980 and made only 4,7%, however, within 5 years it

doubled and reached 10,5%. In the following years the portion of such births continued to increase

and it reached 18,2% in 1990. 1990s were characterized by the further growth of this number, while

in 2000 the portion of out-of-wedlock births was twice as much as in 1990 and it reached 39%. If

we compare these numbers with those of other countries, it turns out that in the last 20 years there

was an unprecedented growth of out-of-wedlock births in Georgia. Based on the data of 1999,

according to our estimations, 2,1 children were born per each married woman, while 1,1 child was

born per each unmarried woman in Georgia.

Concerning mortality, according to the UN experts’ estimations, in 1960-1965

approximately 20 thousand deaths per year remained unregistered in Georgia, while the portion of

incomplete registration made 40%. It is quite a high portion and is only less than the respective

indicators of the Central Asian republics. Both the UN experts and the authors’ estimations reveal

that in the period of 1960-1990 incomplete registration of deaths took place. Based on both

estimations, from 1960 the registration of deaths was improving (though based on the UN data, it

somewhat worsened in 1980-1985) and considerably improved in the late 1980s.

The UN experts’ estimation of incomplete registration of deaths in Georgia is higher than

the one by the authors of this work. For instance, based on the Department of Statistics’ data, in

1960-1990 the number of deaths was 1185 thousands; based on the authors’ estimations it was 1350

thousands, while based on the UN experts’ estimations it reached 1400 thousands. On the whole,

incomplete registration of deaths in Georgia in 1960-1990 was estimated as 215 thousands (15,4%)

by the UN experts and as 165 thousands (12,2%) by the authors of this work.

177

Department of Statistics (as well as other institutions) was unprepared to the political and

socioeconomic changes of 1990s that resulted in worsening of registration of deaths as well as other

demographic events. In 1990s, in comparison to 1970s and 1980s, incomplete registration of deaths

became even larger. However, after the 2002 population census the demographic data of 1989-

2002, including the number of deaths, were re-estimated. The Department of Statistics data before

and after the re-estimations considerably differ. Despite some variations, the re-estimated data of

Department of Statistics is quite close to ours. According to the pre-estimated data of Department of

Statistics, the number of deaths in Georgia in 1990-2000 was 460,9 thousands, while based on the

re-estimation this number changed to 552,6 thousands and got closer to our estimation, namely,

560,2 thousands.

Incomplete registration of deaths also reflected in crude death rate. The data of particular

years showed considerable discrepancies. Overall, analysis of the mortality data since 1960 brings

us to the renewed understanding of the evolution of life expectancy and generally demographic

transition within the last 40 years (1960-2000).

The fact that despite some variations, infant mortality rate still remains quite high in Georgia

and in 2000 was somewhat higher than in 1990 (20,7 in 1990 and 22,6 in 2000 per 1000 live births)

should be considered as a negative fact. Generally, the majority of deaths come to diseases of the

circulatory system and neoplasms. At the same time, in comparison to 1989, in 2000 the number of

deaths by diseases of the circulatory system increased and the ones caused by neoplasms somewhat

decreased.

Concerning infant mortality, its structure underwent significant changes in the considered

period. In comparison to 1989, in 2000 the deaths caused by certain infectious and parasitic

diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, and congenital malformations, deformations and

chromosomal abnormalities considerably decreased. However, the deaths caused by certain

conditions originating in the perinatal period significantly increased (twice in boys and 2,3 times in

girls). If the number of deaths in perinatal period had remained the same as in 1989, infant mortality

rate would have been 14 instead of 22 in 2000.

Discrepancies between Department of Statistics and our data on mortality rates by age

reflected in life expectancy rates. According to the Department of Statistics data, both female and

male life expectancy at birth declined in 1960-1979 and then increased in 1989. This decline in

1960-1979 reported by Department of Statistics should be explained by the fact that in this period

registration of deaths was gradually improving, which was much more incomplete in 1960s than in

1970s and especially in 1980s. Based on both the UN experts and our estimations, life expectancy

in Georgia increased in 1960-1989. Thus, the actual situation considerably differed from the one

presented by the official data.

178

The discussed period (1960-2000) is characterized by the fact that natural increase of

population was quite high in 1960-1965, then, despite some variations, it declined, and in 1989

natural increase of population per 1000 people (7,6) was twice less than it was in 1960. Such a

decline was caused by two processes - decline in natality especially obvious in 1992-1993 and

increase in mortality caused by population aging that brought natural increase by a zero indicator in

1999-2000.

In the beginning of 1970s, after certain increase, net reproduction rate continued to decline

and in the beginning of 1990s it reduced to replacement level fertility. In 1992 net reproduction rate

went beyond replacement level fertility and remains such till today (according to estimations, it is

0,8). Thus, extended reproduction of population being dominant in 1960-1980 changed into reduced

reproduction of population in 1992 and remains such till today.

In the discussed period “Marriage Market” underwent significant changes. On the whole, at

the end of XX century, Georgian “Marriage Market” experienced the deficiency of male partners.

Such a general indicator of nuptiality as the number of marriages per 1000 people also indicates

decrease of registered marriages in Georgia from the second half of 1980s, especially from 1992,

which was mainly caused by the decline in marriages among the females and males under 25.

In 2000 total registered marriage rate was almost twice less than in 1990 and for all

marriages made 0,479 for males and 0,451 for females (accordingly, 0,976 and 0,944 in 1990).

These data reveal that more than half of both males and females never got married (registered) in

Georgia.

It is important to pay attention to divorce rates in Georgia in 1960-2000. In 1960-1990

divorce rate, despite some variations, increased, while from 1990 it started to decrease. Divorce

index, calculated on the basis of total divorce rate and total marriage rate, is considered to be quite

an accurate indicator of divorce rate. Divorce rate in Georgia was the highest in 1990; in 1991-1993

it declined; in 1994 it somewhat increased, however it tended to decrease again in 1995-1998; in

1999 it inconsiderably increased, while in 2000 it continued to further increase. 65-75% of those

divorced were the couples having no children. Therefore, we can assume that one of the main

reasons of divorce in Georgia was childlessness. Based on the data of 1990s, the divorced couples

had on average 0,4-0,5 child.

Another essential factor is international migration having a vital impact on the formation of

the population of Georgia. It is noteworthy that Georgia has been characterized by negative net

migration since 1960. Even according to the official data (which is incomplete), negative net

migration exceeded 10 thousands in 1973-1996. In the conditions of a relatively high natural

increase of population, despite negative net migration, total number of population was increasing.

However, after decline in natality and increase in mortality negative net migration was becoming

179

more and more visible. The situation considerably worsened in 1990s, when natality further

declined, mortality increased, and international migration intensified. Low natural increase could

not compensate for high negative net migration, which caused considerable decrease of the

population.

The estimations of international migration are based on the role of international migration in

the model of demographic system and the results of the researches on the issues of international

migration conducted in Georgia in 1990-2000. According to the estimations, in 1960-2000, because

of international migration, the population of Georgia lost more than 1404 thousand people. The

period of 1990s was especially hard as international migration caused more loss than it happened in

the preceding 30-year period. Based on the estimations, in 1990-2000, owing to international

migration, Georgia lost 19% of the population of 1989, which means that almost each fifth person

migrated.

In the period between the censuses (1989-2001) the intensity of international migration for

the representatives of different ethnic groups living in Georgia was different. Ossetians, Greeks, and

Russians were characterized by high intensity of international migration, while Azeris and

Armenians - by low intensity, and Georgians - by the lowest one.

Demographic Development of Georgia in 2001-2006

Talking about 2000s, we should emphasize the first national census of the population of

Georgia conducted on January 17, 2002 though it was given diverse evaluations by the specialists.

First of all, their critique concerns “Form M” - migrants’ census page that did not work properly or

at all. Based on its results, the number of emigrants from Georgia was 113,7 thousands. While at the

same time, according to the Department of Statistics data, negative net migration from Georgia in

the period between the censuses (1989-2001) reached 930 thousands.

Based on the 2002 census data, de jure population was 4371,5 thousands, while de facto

population was 4355,7 thousands; thus, the difference between them was 15,8 thousands. If,

according to Department of Statistics, negative net migration was 930 thousands and the majority of

migrants went to labor migration in order to improve their economic conditions and, at the same

time, their 81,1% retained Georgian citizenship, then the difference between de jure and de facto

population should have been greater than 15,8 thousands.

The comparison of de jure and de facto population by age groups cannot stand any critique

as well. The estimations provide the opportunity to ascertain only de facto population. According to

the estimations, in 2002 de facto population of Georgia was less than the de jure one by 370,5

thousands. In 2003-2007 this discrepancy increased and reached 555,5 thousands by 2007. The age-

sex structure of the population underwent certain variations as well. In comparison to the preceding

180

period, in 2001-2007 the portion of those under 15 somewhat decreased and the portion of those

over 65 increased; thus, demographic aging took larger scales.

Unfortunately, in the beginning of XXI century there was quite an undesirable situation in

Georgia concerning registration of births, namely, there was incomplete registration of births in

2001-2006, reaching 10% in certain years. In 2001-2006 the number of fertile age women was

gradually decreasing. Concerning live births per 1000 people (crude fertility rate), it underwent only

minor changes in 2001-2006.

It is evident that based on both Department of Statistics data and our estimations, total

fertility rate reflects similar trends. The only difference is that total fertility rate by the estimations

(1,7) is higher than it is presented by the Department of Statistics data (1,4). Such a discrepancy is

mainly caused by incomplete registration of live births and over-representation of females aged 15-

49 by Department of Statistics. Nevertheless, in both cases, total fertility rate is less than

replacement level fertility (2,1).

In 2000 marital fertility rate and out-of-wedlock birth rate became almost equivalent. In

2002 marital fertility rate was already lower than out-of-wedlock birth rate, while in 2006 out-of-

wedlock birth rate considerably exceeded marital fertility rate.

As in case of births, incomplete registration is also characteristic to registration of deaths.

According to our estimations, incomplete registration of deaths also took place in 2001-2006 though

with less extent than in the preceding period.

Because of incomplete registration of deaths, on the one hand, and over-representation of

the population, on the other hand, crude death rate by Department of Statistics turned out to be

much less than that by our estimations. The discrepancy between them exceeded 3‰ in 2006

(According to Department of Statistics data - 9,6‰ and according to the estimations - 12,7‰).

Concerning the causes of death, like in the preceding period, in 2001-2006 the majority of

deaths were caused by diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms. In comparison to them, the

portion of other diseases was considerably low. The deaths caused by certain conditions originating

in the perinatal period were continuing to increase that had a negative effect on infant mortality.

In 2001-2006 life expectancy at birth was undergoing certain changes. First of all, the

difference between the Department of Statistics data and the estimations should be emphasized. In

2001-2002 the discrepancy between them was minor though in the following period it tended to

grow and reached 2,7 years for males and 3 years for females in 2006. The abovementioned

discrepancy is caused by two main reasons: First, In case of Department of Statistics, increase of

incomplete registration of deaths and second, Over-representation of the population of Georgia that

results in the under-representation of mortality rates and is reflected in the life expectancy

indicators. According to the estimations, life expectancy at birth in 2006, in comparison to 2001,

181

was reduced for males by 1 year and increased for females by 0,5 year and accordingly equated to

67,5 and 75,5 (71,3 for both sexes).

There is discrepancy between the Department of Statistics data and the estimations

concerning natural increase of population as well. According to the first source, in 2006 natural

increase was 1,3 ‰, while according to the second one, it was 0,3‰. There is some difference

concerning net reproduction rate as well reported as 0,6 by Department of Statistics and 0,8 by the

estimations in 2006. Thus, in 2000 reduced reproduction of population further progresses in

Georgia.

In 2002, in comparison to 1989, the number of married males and females reduced, at the

same time, considerably increased the number of those never married. The number of remarriages

also decreased and in 2006 reduced to the lowest level in the last 25 years. Marriage age underwent

certain changes as well, namely, in comparison to 2000, in 2006 the age for first marriage grew by 1

year for males and 0,7 year for females, and became 29,4 and 25,4 respectively.

It is noteworthy that total divorce rate tended to decline in 2001-2004, while from 2005 it

started to increase and in 2006 it reached the level of that of 1997 (0,07 for both males and

females). Divorce index gives a diverse picture than total divorce rate. Based on divorce index it is

possible to conclude that divorce rate tended to decline for both sexes in 2001-2005 though

somewhat increased in 2006. Besides, if in 2002-2005 divorce index was higher for females than

males, in 2006 the situation reversed. Concerning divorce age, in 2000s it was 40-41 for males and

37-38 for females, while an average duration of marriage was 11-12 years.

Concerning international migration, talking about the reliability of its data is out of question

as its registration remained much worse than the registration of births and deaths. Although an

attempt was made to gain the data on international migration during the 2002 population census, it

was unsuccessful for several reasons: First, the census could not cover all the emigrated families;

second, because of distrust to the government the population concealed the facts of emigration; and

finally, there were many residences with absent families at the census time. Despite the fact that the

data on duration of migration, household size, etc. was not applicable for further analysis, the

majority of the data was still applicable in a structural sense. However, the registration of

international migration remains a problem. From 2004 Department of Statistics started to use the

data of the Customs Department but it should be considered as a methodological fallacy as based on

such data, in 2004-2006 net migration for Georgia was positive and made 69,7 thousands, while

based on the estimations, it was negative and made 90,6 thousands.

A certain attention should be paid to ethnic structure of the population and

ethnodemographic processes. There was a general trend that in 1959-1989 the portion of Georgians

in the whole population was steadily increasing. In 1990s, because of international migration and

182

reduction of natural increase, the portion of non-Georgian population decreased. Because of the fact

that non-Georgian population emigrated more intensively than the Georgian one, the portion of

Georgians in the whole population further increased. According to the 2002 census data, the portion

of Georgians increased up to 83,3%, while being only 70,1% in 1989. In 13 years the portion of

Georgians in the whole population increased by the same extent as it happened in the preceding 30

years (1959-1989).

By 2002 age-sex structure of the ethnic groups living in Georgia was quite diverse.

Georgians and Armenians’ age structure was of a stationary type, the Azeris’ one - of a progressive

type though the transition to a stationary type was evident, while the Russians’ one was

characterized by an obvious regressive type.

In 1989 fertility rate in Azeris was considerably higher (28,7 per 1000 people) than that in

other ethnic groups, while fertility rate was the lowest in Russians (11,3 per 1000 people). At the

same time, mortality rate was highest in Russians (13,3‰) and lowest in Azeris (5,8‰). Natural

increase was highest in Azeris (22,9‰, which is three times higher than that of Georgians) and

lowest in Russians.

In 2005, in comparison to 1989, both fertility rate and mortality rate declined in all the

ethnic groups that resulted in the reduction of natural increase, and mortality rates exceeded fertility

rates, especially in case of Russian population.

Demographic Prospects of Georgia

The aim of this part is to present demographic prospects of Georgia for the period until

2050, based on the updated data and taking into consideration international standards. The

estimations cover the population of Abkhazia and Tskinvali region as well, the number of which

was 220 thousands in 2005.

We are presenting the medium version estimations for 2005-2050. In this case age-specific

fertility rate and total fertility rate are taken unchanged as they were in 2005.

The population of Georgia tends to decline in 2005-2050 and by 2050 it will reduce to 3386

thousands that is by 734 thousands in comparison to 2004. The main tendency characteristic to

2005-2050 will be reduction of the portion of those under 15 and increase of the portion of those

over 65. By 2050 demographic aging will further increase and the portion of the population over 65

will reach 21,2%. All of this will have a considerable impact on age-sex structure of the population.

Stationary type of population dominant in 2005 will be substituted by regressive type of population

by 2050. According to the medium version estimations, by 2030 Georgia will already be

characterized by regressive type of population and in the following period this trend will even

183

strengthen. Until 2025 international migration and afterwards natural decrease will be the main

factors influencing formation of the population.

Crude fertility rate will also decline in Georgia caused by the steady decrease of fertile age

women. At the same time, because of demographic aging, mortality per 1000 people will gradually

increase. By 2040 mortality rate will exceed 15‰ and continue to grow. Concerning infant

mortality, in comparison to 2005, by 2050 it will decrease by 2,5 times and make 9 per 1000 people.

By 2050 life expectancy at birth will increase and make 75 years for males and 80 years for

females (which is about 7,5 years more than it was in 2005) and the discrepancy between female

and male life expectancy will decrease from 7,3 to 5 years.

By 2010 mortality will dominate over natality, therefore, natural increase will be substituted

by natural decrease resulting in an obvious depopulation. This process will become even stronger

after 2010 and the discrepancy between mortality and natality will further grow. According to the

medium version estimations, from 2045 the population of Georgia will naturally lose 16 thousand

people per year that makes 4,7 per 1000 people.

184

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