Sampling Design, Sample Size, and Why They Are Important

Prof. Bhisma Murti, dr, MPH, MSc, PhD Masters Program in Public Health, Postgraduate Programs, Universitas Sebelas Maret

Types of Population • Target population (populasi sasaran)

is the population a researcher wants to

make inference about

• Source population (accessible

population, populasi sumber,

populasi terjangkau) is a subset of the

target population that is accessible to

the researcher, from which the samples

are drawn.

• Sample (sampel) is a group of subjects

chosen from the source population for

study to represent the target population

• External population (populasi

eksternal) is the population larger than

the target population that the researcher

may still want to generalize results

External Validity

Internal Validity

Statistical inference

Sampling

Sample

Target population

Source population

External population

Internal Validity and External Validity

• Internal validity (validitas internal) refers to the extent to which the sample estimate reflects the true value of the association/ effect under study in the target population

• External validity (validitas eksternal) refers to the extent to which the sample estimate is generalizable to the (larger) external population. The internal validity is a prerequisite for the external validity

Internal Validity

Statistical inference

Sampling

Sample

Target population

Source population

External population

External Validity

What is Sampling and Why • Sampling (pemilihan sampel)

is the selection of a subset of individuals from within a population to estimate characteristics of the whole population, e.g.

• Prevalence of tuberculosis

• The relationship between smoking and the risk of stroke

• Researchers rarely study the entire population because the cost of a census is too high.

Validity

Validity

Properties of a Good Research (Karakteristik Penelitian yang Baik)

• A good research is one that makes a valid, precise, and consistent estimate of characteristics or difference/ association/ effect of variables under study in the population

• The validity of a study is inversely related to the degree of systematic error.

• The precision and consistency of an estimate are inversely related to the degree of random error

Systematic Error • A systematic error (kesalahan

sistematis) or bias occurs when there is a deviation between the true value (in the target population) and the observed value (in the study sample)

• A systematic error results from an error in the selection of sample (selection bias), faulty measurement of variables (information bias), and/ or mixed effect by a third variable (confounding factor)

Random Error • Random error (kesalahan random) occurs

due to random variation in sampling and/ or measurement of variables

• Random error is always present in a measurement. It is caused by inherently unpredictable fluctuations in measuring the variables under study.

• The distribution of random errors follows a Gaussian-shape "bell" curve. They are scattered about the true value, and tend to have null value when a measurement is repeated several times with the same instrument.

• Therefore increasing sample size can reduce random error.

0

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30Size of induration, mm

Systematic Error Per Cent

The true values of the characteristics in the target population

The observed values of the characteristics in the sample

0

2

4

6

8

10

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Size of induration, mm

Random Error Per Cent

The observed values of the characteristics in the sample

The true values of the characteristics in the target population

Why is Sampling Design Important? (Mengapa Memilih Sampel Penting?)

• Incorrect selection of a sample leads to bias estimate of a study

• Analysis of data from a sample that is biased or unrepresentative to population will result in wrong conclusion about the characteristics of the population

Why is Sample Size Important? (Mengapa Ukuran Sampel Penting?)

• Choosing a sample size that is too small may not give a statistically significant conclusion nor precise estimate about difference/ relationship/ effect of the variables under study

• Too large a sample size is wasteful and sometimes impossible to complete.

Valid, Valid,

Not valid, Not valid, Precise

Systematic error, random error Random error

Systematic error

Sample size

Sample Size, Systematic Error, and Random Error

• The larger sample size, the smaller random error

• But sample size does not affect systematic error

• Larger sample size does not reduce systematic error

• Systematic error is more serious than random error, as it cannot be corrected by increasing sample size

Sample Size and Random Error (Sampling Error, Margin of Error)

Larger sample size reduces random variation, therefore increases precision

Sampling Design (Desain Pemilihan Sampel) • Random sampling:

• Simple random sampling

• Stratified random sampling

• Cluster random sampling

• Non-random sampling: A. Convenient sampling

B. Purposive (judgmental ) sampling:

• Fixed disease sampling • Fixed exposure sampling

etc.

Types of Random Sampling (Jenis Pemilihan Sampel Random)

• Random sampling is a sampling method in which all member of a population (universe) have a known and independent chance of being selected.

• Simple random sampling is a sampling method in which all member of a population have an equal chance of being selected.

• Stratified random sampling selects independent samples at random from subpopulations, groups or strata within the population.

• Cluster (random) sampling selects the sample units at random in groups (called cluster, eg. neighborhood).

Choose groups (cluster) at random

Study all members of the groups selected

Types of Non-Random Sampling (Jenis Pemilihan Sampel Non-Random)

• Purposive sampling uses expert judgment to select a sample that adequately represents the target population on factors that might influence the population: e.g. socio-economic status, intelligence, access to education, environmental factors, etc.

• Convenience sampling is a non-probability sampling technique where subjects are selected because of their convenient accessibility and proximity to the researcher. This sampling design is poor, it very unlikely gives a representative sample

Fixed Exposure Sampling and Fixed Disease Sampling

• Fixed exposure sampling selects a fixed number of subjects from each exposure category (exposed and non-exposed groups). This design is primary used in a cohort study, but can also be used in a cross-sectional study

• Fixed disease sampling select a fixed number of subjects from each disease category (case and control groups). This design is primary used in a case control study, but can also be used in a cross-sectional study. Since cases are rare, it will be efficient to include all available cases for the study, while subjects in the control group can be selected at random from the available non-diaseased population

Sample Size Formulas (Rumus Ukuran Sampel)

• Formula for Testing/ Estimating One Population: 1. Mean

2. Proportion

3. Correlation coefficient

• Formula for Testing/ Estimating Two Populations: 1. Difference in Two (or More)

Population Means

2. Difference in Two (or More) Population Proportion

Examples of Sample Size Formula (Contoh Rumus Ukuran Sampel)

• Sample size for a study that tests proportion difference between two (or more) populations:

• Sample size for a study that tests mean difference between two (or more) populations:

2

μμ

ZZ2σ

221

β1α/212

n

221

2

2211β1α/21

PP

P1PP1PZP1P2Zn

Determinants of a Sample Size Estimation (Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ukuran Sampel)

• Minimum sample size calculated by any formula is only a statistical estimate. It is dependent on the researcher’s choice of acceptable random error and on findings from previous studies. Time, cost, and ethics should also be considered.

• The researcher’s choice of acceptable random error:

1. Tipe I error (α). Arbritary, but conventional choice: α= 0.05

2. Type 2 Error (β) or statistical power (1- β). Arbritary, but conventional choice: β = 0.20

3. Degree of precision or margin of error (e.g. +/- 5%)

• Findings from previous or preliminary studies: 1. Difference in population means and their

variances 2. Difference in population proportions 3. Correlation coeficient from one population

Using Statistical Program to Calculate Minimum Sample Size (Menggunakan Program Statistik untuk Menghitung Ukuran Sampel)

Use of OpenEpi to calculate sample size

Final Words: Important Reminder (Kesimpulan: Penting untuk Diingat)

• The sample should be selected by correct (unbiased) sampling design so that it accurately represents the population. Incorrect sampling design will cause systematic error, which leads to an estimate of the characteristics or the association/ effect of variables in the population that is not valid.

• The sample size should be large enough to achieve statistically significant results (i.e. consistency) and precise estimate. Small sample size will increase random error, therefore will cause non-statistically significant and imprecise results.