sami consulting st andrews management institute decisions in uncertain times scenarios for higher...
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SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institute
www.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain times
Scenarios for higher education in the
21st century
Gill RinglandOctober 2009
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Agenda
• What questions might we ask?• Scenarios & Forecasts
• Case study – Scenarios for Scotland• Case Study – Forecasts and scenarios
• What scope for scenarios? What timescale?• Case study – scenarios for higher education in Estonia• Case study – using scenarios to think about future skills
• What happens next?• Case study – developing and using scenarios in a University
• Questions revisited
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
• Formed in 1989• Until 1999 based at St Andrews University• Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows
• Strategic support for senior managers• Forecasts, scenarios, options, choices, planning, targets,
metrics, change management• Resources:
• 7 Fellows, all with Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, teach & write on business, strategy and futures
• 6 Principals, experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and change management,
• 10 Consultants and 30 Associates with specialist expertise • Library of data, sources of information, networks of people,
shared virtual space, wide knowledge of methods and tools
SAMI Consulting
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
What questions might we ask?
• How do we define Higher Education?• What is the purpose of HE?• What economic and societal changes will shape HE?• What influence can HE have on the economy and
society? What aspects?• When (what life stage) can/should people undertake
HE?• How can HE be delivered?
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Fo
reca
sts
Sce
na r
ios
Hope!
Uncertainty
Predetermined
Distance into the futures
Forecasts and Scenarios
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Forecasting is good for
• Technology• Products for next 10 years in lab now• Products for next 20 years discussed now• But – adoption - surprises
• Demographics• Reducing population in developed world• World population may peak at 8.8 billion• But – migration – surprises
• Next five years in most sectors• But – scenarios in marketing – use for recognising new
customer behaviour for new products within a year• Forecasts use the current mental model
St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI)
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
What are scenarios useful for?
• Scenarios are• “an internally consistent view of what the future
might be”• “not a forecast but one possible future outcome”
• Professor Michael Porter, Harvard University
• Scenarios deal with uncertainty and change• Frame mental models to anticipate change• Create a space for dialogue and exploring options• Expose default assumptions• Early indicators allow for signals of change to be
picked up
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Case Study – Forecasts and Scenarios
• Example comparing both scenarios and forecasts• Scenarios for Scotland
• Set agenda for new devolved government• Use scenarios for University in Scotland
• New Head (Principal) and Senior Management Team (SMT)• Purpose: set new strategy
• Use global drivers of change with SMT• Five years later• Update strategic plan
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Scenarios for Scotland
• Purpose: set agenda for new devolved government – what sort of country should Scotland aspire to be?
• Timing as new Scottish Parliament set up• 10 sponsors, from private sector & Government,
managed by SAMI plus two Universities, 1,000 interviews, 50 + focus groups
• Launch on St Andrews Day 1999• High Road scenario, “can do”• Low Road scenario, “government’s fault”
• Used by Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Executive & politicians to formulate policy and strategy
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Scenarios for Scotland
SAMI Consulting 2006
2000 2005 2010 2015
Low Road -“government’s fault” – Business as Usual
Economy and Quality of Life
High Road scenario - “can do”
possible upward triggers
Graduate Entrepreneurs Naturaleducation advantages
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Using scenarios
• New University Head (Principal) and new Senior Management Team
• Needed to create a common language and strategic plan• Used the Scenarios for Scotland to frame a discussion
• What scenario for Scotland?• Did the University need to share the Scotland scenario?
• Two day workshop discussion led to 37 actions and new Strategic Plan• To change from technical college with mostly local, undergraduate
engineering students• Target:
• Use positives of Edinburgh brand to become global• Use positives of Edinburgh Festival to connect with Arts• Develop Master courses with global focus
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Local
Global
Possible futures for the University
University
Scotland
Low Road High Road
X
? ?
?Graduate education
New courses,
new students
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Five years later
• Phone call to SAMI • We’ve done that, will you help us with a plan for the next five years?
• Did not use scenarios, the University had a mental model• Used our five global drivers of change
• Globalisation• Climate change• Raw materials• Technology• People
• Within the SMT had experts on each but no effective communication
• Two day workshop discussion allowed them to calibrate what was achievable, desirable, set targets for next five years.
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Why scenarios work
• Ingvar, a neurobiologist, found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleep• “memories of the future”
• Models of the world provide a context for these explorations• “memories of the future” act as a filter to signals.
• Scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for the brain to explore • increases the range of “what we have experienced” and
“what is relevant to our future”• increases the ability of the brain to perceive.
. Source: D. Ingvar, “Memory of the Future”, Human Neurobiology, 4 (3), p127-136, 1985
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Lessons learnt
• Scenarios are important for forming mental models• Facilitate a discussion about options• Explore assumptions
• Forecasts and knowledge of drivers may be what is needed for a strategic plan• Though good plans include analysis of decision points
where review of the data is needed to be sure that the world view is still correct
• Example – population in London
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1951 1971 1991 2006 2016
ActualForecast now
London projections
1991 forecast
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Scenario scope & timescale
• Change comes from outside the domain• Japanese Foresight study
• Scope needs to be wide, eg for HE consider• demographics, • the economy, • changing skill needs, • technology ----
• Timescale• Longer than strategic planning horizon• Relevant to the community
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
GE Oil & Gas Planning Horizon
Changes from outside the horizon
Planning Horizon
Timescale
New technologies
Other industries
Politics, economics
Societal change
Competitors
Customers
Regulators
3
5
10
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
• Japan Foresight Review• Foresight started in Japan early 50’s• Review of accuracy after 25 years
• Found that accuracy better if used a wide set of inputs, eg:• Future of surface chemistry• Consulted surface chemists plus other chemists, chemical
engineers, physicists, biologists, economist, mathematicians
• Changes come from outside the domain of the current experts
Where change comes from
Source: B.R. Martin and J. Irvine, “Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science”(Pinter Publishers, London & New York, 1989).
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Scenarios for HE in Estonia
• What problem were we trying to solve?• Demographic dip related to 1989-91, few Estonian students• Facilities in place, plus ageing academic and support staff
• What could be done?• Attract international students to Estonian Universities• Using ICT to support distance learning based in Estonia
• Scenarios to explore options• How are the scenarios being used?
• To outline possible solutions• To develop a plan for EU funding
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Construction Skills
• The UK Sector Council for Construction Skills was faced with a problem:• Training in the industry takes 3-5 years• The Council is responsible for qualifications which are lagging
today’s needs, • Will the requirements be the same in say 10 years time?• The workforce is ageing – how many people are needed to
replace the retirees? • Much of the workforce in construction has always been
migrant – how stable is this?
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Using scenarios
• Interviews with all the major employers and Trade Unions
• Built a model to extend existing scenarios for the UK to 2020• Took into account changing technologies & productivity • Also possible economic and social patterns & effect of
climate change and raw materials• Extend existing model used by the Sector Council
• Results tested in workshops around the country
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Interdependence
Autonomy
Four Scenarios
Individual CommunityConventionaldevelopment
World markets Global sustainability
Local stewardship
National enterprise
Go
ve
rnan
ce
Values
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
What were the findings?
• In all scenarios there is continuing demand for construction workers• But mix of skills will be different• Need for multi-skilling & end of “silos”
• Climate change and resource efficiency demands will cause changes in the methods used,
• Potential increase in productivity eg from modularisation, need for multi-skilling
• Construction companies will need to pay more attention to recruitment and retention • because of global war for talent and increased mobility of
workers
• Results challenge the culture of the industry but are difficult to argue against
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Lessons learnt
• National scope for scenarios can be useful for engaging with decision makers• Though global forces need to be considered
• Combining scenarios with existing well-respected models works• Enables people who use the output from the model to
understand the role of assumptions• And to question their assumptions
• Timescale for scenarios may be beyond the planning horizons• But effective scenarios will mean decisions in the short term
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
What happens next?
• Scenarios are useful mental models• Basis for discussion
• Who decides? Do the decision makers need to be part of the scenario creation process?• Evidence is that no, • From University SMT and Construction Skills
• How to engage decision makers?• Scenarios need to be plausible and provide approaches to
recognised issues• Project designers need to identify the decision making forum
and process
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
“Typical” scenarios project
• Scenarios project in 2000 led by the new Vice Chancellor• Team formed mostly from administrative staff• Created four scenarios for Higher Education in 2010
• Workshops across the University • What are the implications of each scenario for the University?• What scenario do we want to make happen?
• Strategy Group of about 80 people set up• Senior academics and young high flyers, met three times at
monthly intervals• To take output from workshops and create a strategy• Strategy outlined
• Senate needed to agree changes in strategy• Senate has over 800 academic members• Decision process still stalled
SAMI Consulting 2006
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Lessons learnt
• Decision process• Need to think through in advance• Who makes decisions• Why they should decide for change
• Scenarios are tools to think about uncertainty and change
• Like any project, • need to know what is the aim • what the steps are to getting there
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Scenarios for higher education
• Universities UK scenarios• Common assumptions
• Main increase is in part time demand & part distance learning
• Tiering of institutions – top 100 globally, long tail
• Scenario 1: adapt slowly• Scenario 2: market-driven, i.e. by students• Scenario 3: employer-driven
• Useful background to our thinking today
SAMI Consultingrobust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Questions revisited
• How do we define Higher Education?• What is the purpose of HE? Will demand be driven by
students or by employers? Or by national governments? Or the EU?
• What societal and economic changes will shape HE?• What influence can HE have on the economy and
society?• When (what life stage) can/should students undertake
HE? What proportion of people can/should undertake HE?
• What sort of organisations can/should deliver HE? How can HE be delivered? (technology, face-to-face. part time, full time)
SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institute
www.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain times
Thank you
discussion,
the floor is yours