sales-side analyst report of walt disney company
DESCRIPTION
This is a comprehensive sales-side analyst report I put together for my Digital Media Economics class taught by Penny Abernathy. I was intimidated by the project at first, but I really enjoyed compiling the research in one report and it allowed me to understand the media market in an in-depth manner.TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ANALYST REPORT STRONG BUY
JOMC 551: Digital Media Economics and Behavior
Analyst Report – WALT DISNEY CO (THE)
STRONG BUY
C. Lucian Crockett IV
UNC-‐Chapel Hill
April 25, 2012
![Page 2: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
CORPORATE OVERVIEW
At nearly 90 years old, the Walt Disney Co has been a mainstay in American
entertainment for quite some time. Today it stands as one of the leading media
conglomerates in the world, operating through five different segments: Media
Networks, Parks & Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and
Interactive Media. Each segment works in conjunction with the others, such as
theme park rides based off of characters in Disney movies, which reinforces brands
throughout the company.
Despite its history as an animation studio, nearly half of Disney Co’s revenue
comes from its Media Networks. These include the ABC broadcast network, 10 TV
stations and the cable networks The Disney Channel and ABC Family, as well as a
42% stake in A&E Television/Lifetime Network and an 80% stake in ESPN. Parks &
Resorts contains Disney Co’s most familiar assets, Disney World and Disneyland, but
also includes the growing Disney Cruise Line, Euro Disney, Hong Kong Disneyland
28.30%
46.20%
16.10%
7.20% 2.20%
2011 Segment Revenues
Parks & Resorts
Media Networks
Studio Entertainment
Consumer Products
Interactive Media
![Page 3: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
and other resort properties throughout the world. Consumer Products includes over
350 international retail stores, merchandise licensing and children’s book
publishing. Interactive Media incorporates all of Disney Co’s websites, interactive
online virtual worlds and video game production businesses.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As the head of a media conglomerate, Disney CEO Robert Iger must keep his
eye on several different industries and sub industries in order to run a successful
company. For instance, with sluggish ad revenues and decreasing viewership in the
broadcast and cable television industries in recent years, Iger has to stay current on
emerging streaming technologies. Even though ad revenues are up after a significant
slump in 2009, Internet streaming services continue to threaten the established
business models of broadcast and cable television. Disney needs to take a proactive
role when it comes to streaming its content online by investing in research and
development for these services and realizing creative, innovative ad opportunities
in this sector. Iger must also revamp his Studio Entertainment segment, especially
after the flop of John Carter and the departure of studio chief Rich Ross. Iger needs
to recruit a veteran studio executive that can bring the live-‐action and animated
blockbusters to Disney by focusing on its core brands, as well as those of Marvel and
Pixar. In addition, Disney is currently implementing several additions to its Parks &
Resorts segment, including a new cruise ship, a resort in Hawaii, expansion of its
current resorts and the groundbreaking of a new resort in Shanghai, China.
![Page 4: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
According to IBISWorld, The Walt Disney Co enjoys the largest market share
in seven separate industries: Children’s TV Channels, Intellectual Property Licensing
in the US, Television Production in the US, Movie & Video Production in the US,
Amusement Parks in the US, Television Broadcasting in the US and Cable Networks
in the US (SEE APPENDIX). Disney’s main competitors consist of several other large
media conglomerates, including Viacom Inc., Time Warner Inc., News Corporation,
NBC Universal and Comcast Corporation. Even though Disney currently holds the
top spot in several of the competing industries, the margins are small for the most
part and the conglomerates usually swap the highest market share in each industry
from year to year in. These conglomerates have a stronghold on these industries due
to the high costs involved in producing, distributing and marketing these products.
This high barrier to entry, along with Disney’s recent investments, improving ad
revenues and a projected increase in disposable income, leads me to give The Walt
Disney Co a Strong Buy rating.
RECENT HISTORY
As of April 24, 2012, The Walt Disney Co (DIS) trades on the New York Stock
Exchange for $42.18, with a 52-‐week high of $44.50 and a low of $28.19. Its current
market cap sits at $75.906 billion. Besides minor setbacks in 2009 due to the
recession and low ad revenues, Disney has seen both revenue and earnings per
share increase over the past five years. Revenue was at $35.5 billion in 2007 and
increased 11.4% to $40.9 billion in 2011. Meanwhile, earnings per share increased
12.5%, from $2.24 in 2007 to $2.52 in 2011.
![Page 5: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Graph And Statistics Courtesy of Bloomberg
Disney also raised its annual dividend by 50%, from $0.40 to $0.60, in 2011, the
largest increase in 20 years. The company has recently executed several share
buybacks, including a $5 billion buyback in October 2011. As of December 31, 2011,
Disney had a total debt of $14.4 billion, while cash and equivalents equaled $3.8
billion, giving it a net debt of $10.6 billion. Disney had an EBITDA of $9.912 billion in
2011, with a 24.20% EBITDA margin, compared with an EBITDA of $8.320 billion,
with a 23.43% margin, in 2007. Disney has the largest market cap in the
Entertainment Content Providers Peer Group, with Time Warner Inc falling far
behind in second with $35.489 billion. Meanwhile, Disney’s P/E Ratio matches with
competitors, who all share a P/E Ratio of 16, besides Time Warner who stands at 14.
CURRENT MARKET AND COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
As a media conglomerate, The Walt Disney Co has stakes in several different
industries and sub industries, which it defines through the five segments of its
company: Media Networks, Parks & Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer
![Page 6: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Products and Interactive Media (SEE CHART ABOVE). For this section, I will focus on
the three main revenue generators: Media Networks, Studio Entertainment and
Parks & Resorts.
Media Networks
Disney currently holds the largest markets shares of TV Production in the US
(19.1%), Children’s TV Channels (43.3%), Television Broadcasting in the US
(17.6%) and Cable Networks in the US (15.3%) according to IBISWorld industry
reports. Disney holds stakes in ABC, Starz, ESPN (80%), A&E/Lifetime (40%),
SOAPNet and the Disney Channel. ABC, with its 234 local affiliates, currently reaches
99% of all U.S. TV households, while the Disney Channel sits in the top three of
ratings for average viewers. ABC’s “Good Morning America” recently beat NBC’s
“Today” show for the first time in 16 years in the television morning show market.
Broadcast TV brought in $6.4 billion in revenue for Disney in 2011, with $841
million in operating income. News Corporation came in second in market share
(13.5%) with $4.9 billion in revenue and an operating income of $921 million. Ad
revenues for broadcast TV bottomed out in 2009, but Disney saw an ad revenue
growth of 11.8% in 2011. Ad revenues are projected to continue to grow in 2012
with the presidential campaign and the Summer Olympics coming up.
![Page 7: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Disney’s most valuable cable assets are ESPN and the Disney Channel, both of
which constantly find themselves in the top ten of cable viewership. Through new
cable affiliate fees, ESPN is projected to make $5 per subscriber per month. ESPN is
also the leading developer of 3D television with its ESPN 3D network, which
broadcasts over 100 3D programs a year. The Disney Channel holds a 43% market
share in Children’s TV, while Viacom’s Nickelodeon comes in a close second at 42%.
The Disney Channel overtook Nickelodeon in viewership of ages 2 to 11 in 2012 for
the first time ever. The Disney Channel came in second for primetime viewership for
cable networks and first in daytime viewership. Cable TV brought in $2.6 billion in
revenue for Disney in 2011, with $1 billion in operating income. Viacom Inc. came in
second in market share (13.4%) with $2.2 billion in revenue and $795 million in
operating income in 2011. Cable subscriptions and ad revenue are expected to
increase through 2012, ensuring growth in the industry.
Disney also holds the highest market share in TV Production, with 19.1%,
bringing in $6.3 billion in revenue and an operating income of $2.1 billion. NBC
Universal falls behind Disney at 17.5% of market share with $5.8 billion in revenue
and $2.2 billion operating income.
![Page 8: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Industry growth will mainly come from ad revenue, which will increase as
online streaming platforms increase in popularity. Disney, with its diverse catalog of
television genres and networks, stands in a comfortable position to ensure revenue
growth into the future.
Parks & Resorts
With a 41% market share, The Walt Disney Co has a stronghold on the
amusement park industry in the United States. Disney brought in $11.8 billion from
its parks in 2011, with an operating income of $1.6 billion. Comcast, which owns
Universal Studios, comes in second with 18% market share, including $2.0 billion in
revenue from its parks and an operating income of $859 million. Disney’s resorts,
particularly Disney World in Orlando, FL, and Disneyland in Anaheim, CA, are some
of the company’s most recognized assets and Disney World is North America’s most
visited tourist destination. Heavy spending went into the Parks & Resorts segment
over the past few years, including Cars Land at Disneyland’s California Adventure, a
mixed-‐use resort in Hawaii, expansions at Disney World and Hong Kong Disneyland,
a new cruise ship, and a new resort in Shanghai, China. With already stellar
performance from its parks, Disney continues to pump money into this industry as
consumer disposable income and domestic travel are projected to increase over the
next few years.
![Page 9: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Universal Studios has seen tremendous growth over the past few years, especially
with its new Wizarding World of Harry Potter at its Islands of Adventure park in
Orlando, FL. With Disney’s current expansions and investments in its Parks &
Resorts segment, however, we believe it will maintain its strong market share well
into the future.
Studio Entertainment
Even though Disney built itself as a production studio in 1936, this segment
of the media conglomerate has seen less than stellar box office performance in
recent years. Disney lost 15% of its box office market share in 2011, landing in
fourth place in domestic box office performance. Viacom’s Paramount Studios
occupied the top spot, while Warner Bros. and Sony/Columbia took the second and
third places, respectively. Disney has not fared much better in 2012 with the flop of
John Carter, which is projected to be a $120 million loss for the studio and resulting
in the ousting of studio chief Rich Ross. Despite lackluster box office performance,
Disney still holds the highest market share of Movie and Video Production in the U.S.
![Page 10: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
with 18.8% of market share, including $5.7 billion in revenue and $286 million in
operating income in 2011. NBC Universal came in second with 16.6% market share,
including $5.1 billion in revenue. Both revenue and operating income have steadily
decreased for Disney over the past five years where they stood at $6.9 billion and
$605 million, respectively, in 2006. Several of the major studios, including Time
Warner, News Corporation and Sony, have all seen decreased revenues in the past
few years, as recession related issues stifled production and ticket sales. Disney has
a positive outlook for the remainder of 2012, with The Avengers and Brave hoping to
garner summer blockbuster success, while a 3D re-‐release of Finding Nemo hopes to
attract fans of the film in the fall.
OVERVIEW OF STRATEGIC AND FINANCIAL OPTIONS
Despite Disney’s high market share in broadcast TV, cable TV and TV
production, ABC has performed poorly in primetime in recent years, consistently
falling in second or third place behind Fox and CBS. Dancing With The Stars is one of
its more popular primetime reality shows, but it constantly loses in ratings to reality
counterparts American Idol and The Voice, on Fox and NBC, respectively. Primetime
hours bring in the highest viewership, and therefore the highest ad revenues, so
continued lackluster performance will begin to result in decreased market share.
The comedy Modern Family continues to perform well and the drama Grey’s
Anatomy has had tremendous success in the past, but its success will not last much
longer with the departure of star Patrick Dempsey. After seeing several years of
![Page 11: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
declining news ratings, Disney also cut the ABC News staff by 25%, opening up
funds for the more lucrative primetime hours.
According to Nielsen, 97% of U.S. households will own a television in 2012,
down from 99% in 2011. This trend is expected to continue well into the future as
viewers begin to use computers and mobile devices to stream content. In addition,
ad revenues from broadcast and cable television are at risk as gaming consoles, DVD
and Blu-‐ray players, Smart TVs and other electronic components begin to offer more
online streaming options away from the computer. Disney has taken a strong stance
in the digital streaming marketplace over the past few years, a necessary approach
to survive as a content producer and distributor. Disney was the first company to
host a full episode player on ABC.com, as well as the first to offer a streaming iPad
app, both of which show new episodes a few days after initial airing as well as the
five prior episodes in a series. Disney brings in revenue by airing ads during
streaming and it also has a distribution deal with Hulu, which streams in a similar
fashion. In addition, Disney sells its content in digital stores such as Apple’s iTunes
and Microsoft’s Xbox Live.
Disney’s acquisition of Pixar in 2006 for $7.5 billion also turned the late Steve
Jobs into its largest shareholder. His direction made it the first movie production
company to release an iPad app, and he also encouraged Disney to invest in
Keychest, a cloud-‐based video storage service that allows playback across platforms
and devices. Disney also has large stakes in the expanding cable markets of India
and China, two countries with burgeoning middle classes that now have disposable
income to spend on cable subscriptions.
![Page 12: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Disney has made several moves to refocus its studio efforts and concentrate
on its own core brands, as well as those of Marvel and Pixar. This restructuring
caused some hampering at the studio, but these changes and investments are
projected to pay off over the next five years. Disney also sold off its stake in
Miramax, which focuses on independent and foreign films, for $663 million. Disney
also has several strategic publishing deals with Dreamworks, providing advanced
knowledge of release dates of direct competition from other studios. Disney made
concerted efforts to give big time producer and director teams, such as Steven
Spielberg, Robert Zemeckis and Jerry Bruckheimer, more creative freedom in hopes
of increased creative development through collaboration. With big name producers
and directors, as well as further development of its investments and restructuring,
and a focus on proven core brands, we expect Disney’s movie production
performance to improve over the next few years.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INVESTMENT
The most important area of investment for Disney right now is dealing with
emerging streaming technologies. It already has a broad offering of streaming
options available for viewers, but its revenue is spread pretty thin because Hulu,
iTunes, or Microsoft are all taking a cut from the ad revenue. ABC offers streaming
on its website, but it doesn’t have the exposure or the cross-‐platform compatibility
of Hulu, iTunes or Xbox Live. Disney needs to invest heavily in research and
development of streaming technologies, as well as invest in startup companies that
offer these services to improve its own streaming services. Having Steve Jobs as a
![Page 13: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
board member helped Disney to stay up to date on emerging technologies and it has
to continue that savvy well into the future. Television ad revenues will decrease as
online viewing options become more popular, more convenient and more prevalent.
Staying ahead of the technology curve with new viewing methods is absolutely
necessary if Disney wants to drive its ad demand.
Disney also needs to refocus its content production, especially in primetime
TV and blockbuster films. With Grey’s Anatomy’s lifespan shortening, finding a new
dramatic brand to build upon is absolutely necessary to drive ad revenues during
primetime hours and ensure syndication into the future. Disney already has a
strong, diverse catalog of televised content, but it has a lot of room for improvement
in TV’s most coveted primetimes slots. Disney faces a similar situation at the box
office. It saw decent performance from ancillary titles such as The Help, The Muppets
and The Lion King 3D, but its big blockbuster films, including The Pirates of the
Caribbean and Cars franchises, both underperformed in 2011. Pouring money into
the production and marketing worked out horribly for John Carter, so Disney needs
to seriously reevaluate its studio logistics. The recent ousting of Rich Ross is the
perfect time for Disney to completely revamp its studio efforts. Bringing in a veteran
studio executive that has experience in promoting not just films, but also marketing
brands, is absolutely vital. Focusing on proven Disney, Pixar and Marvel brands,
while staying price-‐conscious, is imperative for Disney to see success in the future.
Its divestment of Miramax was a move in the right direction by improving the
bottom line and cutting back on the number of non-‐Disney films released each year.
![Page 14: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
In addition, its re-‐release of its past popular films in 3D has proven lucrative,
especially with the low costs of production.
CONCLUSION
With its stellar performance across several industries, and a promising
outlook for consumer disposable income and increased ad revenues, Disney is a
promising investment. The backlash of the recession was felt through weak ticket
sales and ad revenues, but Disney took advantage of the down economy by investing
in strong brands such as Marvel and emerging markets in China and India. Disney’s
Parks & Resorts segment stands as a staple of American tourism and its new resorts
in China will increase international revenues and salience of brands in that growing
market. Disney has a strong history of keeping up with new technologies, a trend it
has to continue if it wants to maintain a steady stream of ad revenues through
streaming video. Disney wasn’t afraid to shed legacy costs at ABC News and
Miramax, which it had owned for nearly 20 years, which is a good sign for investors
worried about attached executives. Disney already has a diverse catalog of content
to offer viewers, and it seems to be heading in the right direction of refocusing on its
main brands, affirming its position as a Strong Buy.
![Page 15: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
APPENDIX
Children’s TV Channels Market Share:
Intellectual Property Licensing in the US Market Share:
Television Production in the US Market Share:
Movie & Video Production in the US Market Share:
Amusement Parks in the US Market Share:
![Page 16: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Television Broadcasting in the US Market Share:
Cable Networks in the US Market Share:
![Page 17: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
SOURCES Bloomberg L.P. Terminal. Charts, Graphs, Exhibits. Accessed Clubert, Kevin. IBISWorld. “Intellectual Property Licensing in the US,” June 2011. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1385> Fixmer, Andy and Rob Golum. Bloomberg. “Disney Raises Dividend Most in 20 Years,” December 1, 2011. < http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-‐11-‐30/disney-‐increases-‐dividend-‐50-‐to-‐60-‐cents-‐a-‐share-‐after-‐record-‐2011-‐profit.html> Kaczanowska, Agata. IBISWorld. “Movie & Video Production in the US,” Feb. 2012. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1245> Kaczanowska, Agata. IBISWorld. “Television Production in the US,” Feb. 2012. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1246> Kaczanowska, Agata. IBISWorld. “Television Broadcasting in the US,” March. 2012. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1261> Kelly, Doug. IBISWorld. “Children’s TV Channels,” March 2012. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=4994> Kondolojy, Amanda. “TV Ratings Broadcast Top 25: ‘American Idol,’ ‘Modern Family’ Top Week 31 Viewing,” April 24, 2012. TVByTheNumbers. <http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/04/24/tv-‐ratings-‐broadcast-‐top-‐25-‐american-‐idol-‐modern-‐family-‐top-‐week-‐31-‐viewing/130482/> Panteva, Nikoleta. IBISWorld. “Social Network Game Development,” August 2011. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=4564> Samadi, Nima. IBISWorld. “Amusement Parks in the US,” December 2011. <http://clients.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1646> Subers, Ray. “Paramount Wins 2011 Studio Battle,” January 11, 2012. BoxOfficeMojo. <http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3345&p=.htm>
![Page 18: Sales-Side Analyst Report of Walt Disney Company](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081908/553273744a795968588b45ea/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
“Walt Disney Company,” Orbis. <https://orbis-‐bvdinfo-‐com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/version-‐2012420/Report.serv?_CID=149&context=2EBR7QBKNIY6X4G&sp_parentcontext=ipaddress&SeqNr=0> “Walt Disney Company S&P Stock Report,” NetAdvantage. April 21, 2012. <http://www.netadvantage.standardandpoors.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/NASApp/NetAdvantage/sr/showInteractiveStockReport.do>