safety engineering and analysis applied to reducing experimental amateur-built (e-ab) aircraft...

Safety Engineering and Analysis Applied to Safety Engineering and Analysis Applied to Reducing Experimental Amateur-Built (E-AB) Reducing Experimental Amateur-Built (E-AB)

Aircraft Accident RatesAircraft Accident Rates

ByByL. D. StevensonL. D. Stevenson

January 21, 2012January 21, 2012

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A Little HistoryGeorge W and Aviation

Soloflights.com

Experimental Amateur-Built AircraftExperimental Amateur-Built Aircraft

IntroductionIntroduction Early Experimental Amateur-Early Experimental Amateur-

Built (E-AB) AircraftBuilt (E-AB) Aircraft CertificationCertification Construction and TestingConstruction and Testing SafetySafety ConclusionsConclusions


Stevenson Stevenson

Early Amateur-Built Aircraft History – Early Amateur-Built Aircraft History – In the Beginning…,.In the Beginning…,.

19031903 First US amateur-built aircraft to fly - First US amateur-built aircraft to fly -

19031903 No government regulation or oversight No government regulation or oversight

– Far “cry” from today– Far “cry” from today Many aircraft built as one of a kind Many aircraft built as one of a kind

aircraftaircraft Built by individuals or small teamsBuilt by individuals or small teams

The Wright Flyer at Kitty Hawk (National Air and Space Museum website, 2009)

1908 – First major aircraft accidentFt. Meyer, VaKilled 2Lt Thomas E. SelfridgeBuried at ArlingtonSelfridge Air Force Base

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Post World War IIPost World War II1941 – 1947 – No amateur-built aircraft 1941 – 1947 – No amateur-built aircraft

allowedallowed

1947 - CAA designates all amateur-built 1947 - CAA designates all amateur-built aircraft before WWII in category aircraft before WWII in category “X” – must recertify every 6 “X” – must recertify every 6 monthsmonths

1952 – first experimental amateur-built 1952 – first experimental amateur-built categorycategory

1953 – Experimental Aircraft Association 1953 – Experimental Aircraft Association (EAA) founded(EAA) founded

1964 – Granted authorization for 1964 – Granted authorization for aerobaticsaerobatics

1966 – Granted first IFR operations1966 – Granted first IFR operations

~1970 – First kits offered~1970 – First kits offered


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CertificationCertification

Builder certifies the aircraft through the FAA at the end of the building process…..Basically a paperwork process

No detailed stringent requirements as in Part 23 certification process for manufactured aircraft similar to C-172, Beechcraft, etc

.E-AB aircraft can not be used for commercial or fly for hire activities

Builder free to make adjustments, design changes, modifications

Builder SHOULD consult knowledgeable sources to ensure safetyThat’s – Should - but there is no requirement


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Certification – ContinuedCertification – Continued

Advisory Circular 20-27G –

Builder takes on the risk to ensure changes are prudent and safeResponsibility for final outcome rests with the builderMany sources available to help the builder with building process

Internet, EAA, classes, schools


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Construction and TestingConstruction and Testing

Information comes from many sources – Generally not the FAAFirst stop - kit/plans manufacturerOther builders & EAA Technical Counselors InternetKit Airplanes

Buy the whole enchilada Buy in stages –

Tail, wings, fuselage, etc.QuickBuild Kits

Plans(Vansaircraft.com, 2009)


Stevenson Stevenson

Construction and Testing - ContinuedConstruction and Testing - Continued

Design, building, and mods have become much more standardizedMust have detailed records or logs of your work

51% rule – the builder must build 51% of the airplaneFAA likes to see records of EAA technical counselor visitsFlight testing

Occurs after FAA certifies aircraft airworthinessMust fly up to 40 hours in the flight test program

No passengers allowedFlight test must show:

Aircraft controllable at normal speeds & during all expected flight maneuvers

No hazardous operating characteristics


Stevenson Stevenson

SafetySafetyIf built and operated within design limits

Safety generally not a problem

5% of all accidents attributed to builder error

22% of first flight accidents linked to builder error

42.7% of first flight accidents linked to pilot error

Overall accident rate comparable to Part 23 aircraft in similar operations

Auto engines and two stoke enginesSignificantly higher accident ratesMore complicated cooling, and ignition systems (no redundancy), power transfer units

(www.kitplanes.com,2009)

Article by RonWanttaja

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SAFETY - Continued Statistically –

– 1 in 115 amateur-built aircraft will crash in any given year (2007)– 1 in 149 certificated aircraft will crash in any given year (2007)

Accident rates are comparable – Even though amateur-built aircraft are:

Designed and built by amateurs Generally maintained by amateurs Many powered by amateur auto engine conversions

– Major cause of accidents – still pilot error with no relationship to the building process

This shows how well overall most amateur-built aircraft are constructed and flown


E-AB Fatal Accidents 2000 - 2009E-AB Fatal Accidents 2000 - 2009

Capstone PaperCapstone Paper– Study of Fixed Wing Experimental Amateur-Built (E-AB) Study of Fixed Wing Experimental Amateur-Built (E-AB)

Aircraft Fatal Accidents in the US for Calendar Years Aircraft Fatal Accidents in the US for Calendar Years 2000-20092000-2009

– Looking for a correlation between pilot’s total flight time Looking for a correlation between pilot’s total flight time and flight time in make & model of fatal accident and flight time in make & model of fatal accident airplaneairplane Very low correlation found between the two timesVery low correlation found between the two times Focused on Make and Model flight timeFocused on Make and Model flight time


E-AB Fatal accidents – 2000 through 2009E-AB Fatal accidents – 2000 through 2009

Total Hours in Make and Model

Number of Fatal Accidents that

Occurred Within the Make and Model Hour

Range Indicated

Percentage of Fatal Accidents Within the Make and Model Hour Range Indicated

0 to 50 114 49.3506%

51 to 100 39 16.8831%

101 to 150 27 11.6883%

151 to 200 6 2.5974%

201 to 250 20 8.6580%

251 to 300 6 2.5974%

301 to 350 0 0.0000%

351 to 400 2 0.8658%

401 to 450 3 1.2987%

451 to 500 1 0.4329%

501 to 550 4 1.7316%

551 to 600 2 0.8658%

650 to 2000 7 3.0303%

E-AB aircraft fatal Accidents for Each Fifty (50) Hours of Make and Model Flight Time Years 2000-2009


Lower Lower the Accident Rate!the Accident Rate!

FAA to EAA – Lower E-AB accident ratesFAA to EAA – Lower E-AB accident rates– EAA currently focusing on a web based survey EAA currently focusing on a web based survey

of E-AB builders & pilots – Results in 2012of E-AB builders & pilots – Results in 2012 EAA better to do this than FAAEAA better to do this than FAA Pilots/builders are more open to giving feedback to Pilots/builders are more open to giving feedback to

EAAEAA Most pilots perceive the FAA might use your inputs Most pilots perceive the FAA might use your inputs

against youagainst you

– A multi year trend of more accidents per year A multi year trend of more accidents per year needs to be reversedneeds to be reversed


Changing Accident TrendsChanging Accident Trends

How do we change the E-AB accident trends?How do we change the E-AB accident trends? From Bahr Textbook –From Bahr Textbook –

““The primary method of preventing accidents is through a The primary method of preventing accidents is through a comprehensive & systematic approach to safety management. The comprehensive & systematic approach to safety management. The most cost effective way to control risks is to implement a most cost effective way to control risks is to implement a comprehensive system safety program throughout the product or comprehensive system safety program throughout the product or system life cycle – Cradle to Grave.”system life cycle – Cradle to Grave.”

– Cooperation and coordinated implementation Cooperation and coordinated implementation between: FAA, EAA, AOPA, NTSB, and kit/plans between: FAA, EAA, AOPA, NTSB, and kit/plans manufacturesmanufactures


Safety Change ExamplesSafety Change Examples Ellington Field (EFD) Aero Club, Houston, TxEllington Field (EFD) Aero Club, Houston, Tx

– Towered airport with very diverse aircraft populationTowered airport with very diverse aircraft population

Problem – low time non-proficient pilots in ground and tower Problem – low time non-proficient pilots in ground and tower operationsoperations

Frequent disregard for taxi and takeoff procedures – tower Frequent disregard for taxi and takeoff procedures – tower personnel aren’t happypersonnel aren’t happy

Club mgt, pilots, and twr personnel met to discuss problemsClub mgt, pilots, and twr personnel met to discuss problems ResultsResults

– Ground school classes on towered airport procedures taught by tower Ground school classes on towered airport procedures taught by tower controllercontroller

– Pilots required to visit tower to observe operationsPilots required to visit tower to observe operations– Infraction dropped to almost zero – Much improved safety environmentInfraction dropped to almost zero – Much improved safety environment

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Safety Change ExamplesSafety Change Examples Two club aircraft accidents due to crosswindsTwo club aircraft accidents due to crosswinds

– Both pilots not proficient in crosswind landingsBoth pilots not proficient in crosswind landings– Neither pilot had ever demonstrated cross wind proficiency even on Neither pilot had ever demonstrated cross wind proficiency even on

their check ridestheir check rides– No requirement for proficiency during a/c checkoutNo requirement for proficiency during a/c checkout– Check out in higher performance a/c allows pilot to fly lower Check out in higher performance a/c allows pilot to fly lower

performance a/c without add’l checkoutperformance a/c without add’l checkout– Now What?Now What?

Implemented crosswind proficiency for checkoutImplemented crosswind proficiency for checkout Higher performance checkout OK for more experienced pilots, but not for Higher performance checkout OK for more experienced pilots, but not for

inexperienced pilotsinexperienced pilots

– ResultsResults Much better accident/incident statisticsMuch better accident/incident statistics


Safety Change ExamplesSafety Change Examples Where I workWhere I work

– Many minor accidents with minor injuriesMany minor accidents with minor injuries What can we do to reverse the trend?What can we do to reverse the trend?

– GM backs into wife’s car - and think’sGM backs into wife’s car - and think’s ““Wish I had those five seconds back”Wish I had those five seconds back”

– Think 5 is born – “Think 5 (ahead)”Think 5 is born – “Think 5 (ahead)” Implemented by management teamImplemented by management team Fully embraced by employeesFully embraced by employees

– Result – Zero accidents – Safety focused cultureResult – Zero accidents – Safety focused culture– Think 5 upgraded : Think 5…There is no rewindThink 5 upgraded : Think 5…There is no rewind


ConclusionsConclusions

To improve E-AB safetyTo improve E-AB safety– Education – get the information “out there”Education – get the information “out there”

Seminars, online information, classesSeminars, online information, classes Review of accident reportsReview of accident reports

– Increased flight proficiency Increased flight proficiency – Apply common senseApply common sense– Additional dual instructionAdditional dual instruction– Attitude upset trainingAttitude upset training

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ConclusionsConclusions

FAA is involved as it wants to beFAA is involved as it wants to be– Currently the FARs with Advisory Circulars provide adequate guidanceCurrently the FARs with Advisory Circulars provide adequate guidance

This is my conclusion (from this research)This is my conclusion (from this research) Builders to whom I talked agreeBuilders to whom I talked agree

Sufficient resources are available (not necessarily through the FAA) to Sufficient resources are available (not necessarily through the FAA) to build a very safe aircraft build a very safe aircraft – ExamplesExamples

http://www.vansairforce.nethttp://www.vansairforce.net– One stop shop for RV’sOne stop shop for RV’s

http://www.eaa.org/homebuilthttp://www.eaa.org/homebuilt Magazines – KitplanesMagazines – Kitplanes

FAA is more involved in overall enforcement and safetyFAA is more involved in overall enforcement and safety– Kit 51% rule as an exampleKit 51% rule as an example

Overall the FAA/EAA “partnership” and other sources are more than Overall the FAA/EAA “partnership” and other sources are more than adequate to ensure the final product is a safe airplane – adequate to ensure the final product is a safe airplane –

In the end…..the builder/pilot is the key In the end…..the builder/pilot is the key


Stevenson Stevenson

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safety engineering and analysis applied to reducing experimental amateur-built (e-ab) aircraft...

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