Sacramento Region AnalysisSacramento Region Analysis

Analysis by

Mark Schill

3 5%Phoenix

Metropolitan Population Growth, Annual Average, 2000 ‐ 2007

3 0%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.5%

Ch l tt

Atlanta

Riverside

Austin

Phoenix

2.1%

2.4%

2.5%

3.0%

Sacramento

Dallas‐Fort Worth

Houston

Charlotte

1.1%

1.2%

1.4%

1.7%

Minneapolis

Seattle

Washington, DC

Portland

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

New York

Los Angeles

Chicago

San Diego

0 0%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

Detroit

San Francisco‐…

Boston

Philadelphia

New York

0.0%Detroit

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Estimates

Metropolitan Net Domestic Migration, annual average rate per 1,000 population, 2000 ‐ 2007

17.9

18.6

18.7

Charlotte

Phoenix

Riverside

5.9

9.7

10.6

16.5

Portland

Sacramento

Atlanta

Austin

‐1 0

0.4

4.3

5.6

Minneapolis

Seattle

Houston

Dallas‐Fort Worth

‐5.5

‐2.8

‐2.1

‐1.0

San Diego

Washington, DC

Philadelphia

Minneapolis

‐12.2

‐8.4

‐8.3

‐7.3

San Francisco‐Oakland

Detroit

Boston

Chicago

‐12.6

‐12.5

New York

Los Angeles

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Estimates

4 0%Austin

Average Annual Employment Growth, 1991 ‐ 2008

2.8%

3.4%

3.8%

4.0%

Charlotte

Riverside

Phoenix

Austin

2 2%

2.2%

2.4%

2.6%

Sacramento

Houston

Dallas‐Fort Worth

Atlanta

1.8%

1.8%

2.1%

2.2%

Washington

San Diego

Portland

Sacramento

0 8%

0.8%

1.6%

1.8%

Chicago

Boston

Minneapolis

Seattle

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.8%

New York

San Francisco‐Oakland

Philadelphia

Chicago

0.2%

0.4%

Detroit

Los Angeles

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics

Professional & Business Services, Average Annual Employment Growth, 1991 ‐ 2008

4 9%

5.3%

6.5%

6.5%

Charlotte

Riverside

Austin

Phoenix

3 8%

4.0%

4.2%

4.8%

4.9%

W hi t

Sacramento

Atlanta

Dallas‐Fort Worth

Charlotte

3.4%

3.5%

3.5%

3.8%

San Diego

Portland

Houston

Washington

2.3%

2.3%

2.6%

3.3%

Chicago

Minneapolis

Boston

Seattle

1.4%

1.6%

1.7%

2.1%

Los Angeles

San Francisco‐…

New York

Philadelphia

1.3%Detroit

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics

145

Sacramento Region Employment Growth Index, 1991 ‐ 2008

Modesto, CA, 135

Sacramento, 144

Stockton, 138

135

140

145

Fresno, CA, 135Merced, CA, 133

, ,

Vallejo, 132

Nation, 126

130

135

= 100)

Oakland, 118

California, 122120

125

wth In

dex (1991 

San Jose, 111110

115

Job Grow

San Francisco, 105

100

105

95

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics

1.50Business and financial operations

Sacramento Region Occupational Landscape

1.23

1.26

1.27

1.29

1.50

Legal

Computer and mathematical science

Construction and extraction

Architecture and engineering

Business and financial operations

1.09

1.10

1.14

1.21

1.23

Community and social services

Protective service 

Office and administrative support

Life, physical, and social science

g

0.98

1.00

1.01

1.06

1.09

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Food preparation and serving related

Sales and related

Education, training, and library

y

0.94

0.94

0.95

0.95

0.98

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Personal care and service

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Management

g, g, y

0.77

0.82

0.84

0.84

0.9

Transportation and material moving

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Healthcare support

, g , , p ,

0.31

0.50

Military

Production

p g

Source:  EMSI Complete Employment, Spring 2008

Housing Affordability Index Between Leading Regions(Share of homes affordable to median income family)

60 161.766.5

68.7

75.3

44.1

49.149.7

60.1

26.928.132.9

35.135.536.2

10.512.512.7

Source: National Association of Homebuilders 

Housing Opportunity Index, Q2 2007

Fastest Single Family Home Price Decline, Q1 2007 Q1 2008Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008

18 5%‐17.2% ‐17.0% ‐17.0% ‐17.0% ‐16.9%

‐15.4%

‐27.7% ‐26.9%

‐22.9% ‐22.2%‐21.3% ‐20.7% ‐20.2%

‐18.5%

‐29.2%27.7%

Source: National Association of Realtors

Percent of Population over age 25 with at least a Bachelor's Degree, 2006

42.4 43.4

27 27.129.3 29.6

33.3

36.1

15.4 16.418.1 19

22.5

11.6

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2006

Mean Travel to Work, in Minutes, 2006

24 5 24.9 25 25.326.4 26.6

27.8 28 28.529.3 29.3

30.5

20.7

23.724.5

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2006

Percent of Mortgaged Owners Spending 30% or more of Household Income on Owner Costs, 2006

52 5 52 7 53.4 53.5 53.7 53.9 54.357.9

36.9 37.8

41.944.6

49 49.552.5 52.7

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2006

Sacramento Growth:  Core vs PeripherySacramento County Peripheral Counties

17.9%18.48%

Sacramento County Peripheral Counties

12.7%

8 20%8.20%

2000‐2007 Population Growth 2001‐2007 Employment Growth

80%

Share of total Jobs In Metro Area, 2001 ‐ 2007

Sacramento County, 68.4%70%

50%

60%

40%

hare of T

otal Jo

bs

Peripheral Counties, 31.6%

20%

30%

Sh

10%

0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

80.0%

Sacramento Share of Total Population, Core vs. Periphery, 2000 ‐ 2007

Sacramento County, CA, 67.2%

70.0%

50.0%

60.0%

on

40.0%

e of to

tal Pop

ulatio

Peripheral Counties, 32.8%

20.0%

30.0%Shar

10.0%

0.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1.40

Sacramento Region Age Group Concentrations, 2006

1 02 1 011.06 1.06

1.16

1.06

1.20

1.00 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.970.93

0.87

0.940.90

0.920.95

0.88

0.80

1.00

otient

0.60

Location

 Quo

0.20

0.40

0.00Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Location Quotient is a measure of concentration relative to the Nation Source:  U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2006

1.20

Age Group Concentrations, 2006

1.15

1.05

1.10

o the na

tion

San Francisco

0.95

1.00

entration relative to

Sacramento

0.90

Conce

Sacramento

0.80

0.85

U d 5 t 9 10 t 15 t 20 t 25 t 30 t 35 t 40 t 45 t 50 t 55 t 60 t 65 t 70 t 75 t 80 t 85Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 

years

15 to 19 

years

20 to 24 

years

25 to 29 

years

30 to 34 

years

35 to 39 

years

40 to 44 

years

45 to 49 

years

50 to 54 

years

55 to 59 

years

60 to 64 

years

65 to 69 

years

70 to 74 

years

75 to 79 

years

80 to 84 

years

85 years and over

Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2006