sa intelligencer #64
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Mewest developments in Intelligence January 2010TRANSCRIPT
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New Developments
Cambridge 19 January 2010: Cambridge University Library will shine a light on the shadowy world of espionage from today (January 19th) – using recently declassified documents and ‘top secret’ material from its own archives. The free exhibition, Under Covers: Documenting Spies, examines the art of espionage from Biblical times to the Cold War era. It draws on personal archives, printed books, official publicity material, popular journals and specialist photographs and maps, mostly from the University Library's own collections, to illustrate a few of the ways in which spies have been documented through the centuries. Exhibits range from a 12th‐century manuscript recounting the story of King Alfred the Great entering a Danish camp disguised as a harpist to a Soviet‐era map of East Anglia. John Ker's 18th‐century 'licence to spy', granted by Queen Anne, shows that the underworld of spies was well‐established long before James Bond's licence to kill. Other highlights include papers used by a Parliamentary Committee investigating the Atterbury Plot of the 1720s, a telegraph from the MI6 chief of the day confirming news of Rasputin's murder, and letters to Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin from Lord Curzon and Winston Churchill, only declassified in 2007. Twentieth‐century material includes a copy of Compton MacKenzie's book Greek Memories that belonged to MI5 Deputy‐Director Eric Holt‐Wilson. The book resulted in MacKenzie being prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act after he gave details of his time as MI6 station chief in the Eastern Mediterranean. Holt‐Wilson's copy shows the spy chief's own crossings‐out of offending passages. http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=66519
Inside This Issue
1 UK: Cambridge University Library on the spy trail
2 US: Dennis Blair statement to Congress
3. Indian VP lecture: shaping intelligence for world of tomorrow
4 India: RAW financial scams make VP furious
4 Australia: Centre to shield against cyber attacks
5 Intelligence tradecraft tips 5 Intelligence literature 6 Calendar: Upcoming conferences
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UK: Cambridge University Library on the spy trail
Under Covers: Documenting Spies runs from January 19 to July 3, 2010. Entry to the exhibition is free. Opening times are Monday‐Friday, 9am‐6pm, Saturday 9am‐4.30pm, Sunday closed
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21 January 2010 Number 64
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US: Dennis C. Blair statement to Congress 20 January 2010: US Congress (Ed: Excerpts) Within the Intelligence Community we had strategic intelligence that al Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) had the intention of taking action against the United States prior to the failed attack on December 25th, but, we did not direct more resources against AQAP, nor insist that the watchlisting criteria be adjusted prior to the event. In addition, the Intelligence Community analysts who were working hard on immediate threats to Americans in Yemen did not understand the fragments of intelligence on what turned out later to be Mr. Abdulmutallab, so they did not push him onto the terrorist watchlist. But on Christmas Day,
the final draft of the memorandum was still sitting in the computer of a junior C.I.A. analyst, waiting until a photo of the young Nigerian was located. Unbeknownst to the analyst, officials said, Mr. Abdulmutallab’s photo had already been delivered to other counterterrorism agencies. (report)
We are taking a fresh and penetrating look at strengthening both human and technical performance and do what we have to do in all areas. I have specifically been tasked by the President to oversee and manage work in four areas:
• Immediately reaffirm and clarify roles and responsibilities of the counterterrorism analytic components of the IC in synchronizing, correlating, and analyzing all sources of intelligence related to terrorism.
• Accelerate information technology enhancements, to include knowledge discovery, database integration, cross‐database searches, and the ability to correlate biographic information with terrorism‐related intelligence.
• Take further steps to enhance the rigor and raise the standard of tradecraft of intelligence analysis, especially analysis designed to uncover and prevent terrorist plots.
• Ensure resources are properly aligned with issues highlighted in strategic warning analysis.
The Intelligence Community is an adaptive, learning organization. We can and must outthink, outwork, and defeat the enemy’s new ideas. Our Intelligence Community is now more collaborative than ever before, knows how to operate as a team, and can adjust to conditions on the ground. We can and will do better, but I cannot guarantee that we can stop all attacks indefinitely. http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100120_1_testimony.pdf
India: Vice President’s lecture: shaping intelligence for the world of tomorrow
19 Jan 2010: New Delhi: (Ed: Excerpts from address by the Honorable Vice President of India, Shri M. Hamid Ansari at the Fourth R. N. Kao Memorial Lecture) “Over centuries the ambit of intelligence, and the craft itself, expanded and enriched itself in response to requirements. Techniques were refined and technology opened up qualitatively different vistas. In the 20th century individual agents on specific assignments gave way to regular agencies. Fascination with the unknown also brought forth a vast amount of literary output that combined fact and fiction, working powerfully on public
VP of India: Shri M. Hamid Ansari
Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents [email protected]
21 January 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 64 3
imagination and even lending respectability to questionable acts. There is merit in C.P. Snow’s observation that “the euphoria of secrecy does go to the head.” We must move our thinking from threat‐based strategies that rely on knowing precisely who our enemy is and where he lives, to vulnerability‐based strategies that try to make our infrastructure more slippery, more redundant, more versatile, more difficult to attack. This conceptual shift, from threat‐based to vulnerability‐based strategies, would necessitate a comprehensive reorientation of the work of the State and therefore of its intelligence apparatus, its objectives and its work methods.
Intelligence services, as David Kay of the Iraq Survey Group put it,
“don’t do a very good job of trying to understand
the soft side of societies.”
To develop the argument further, I would like to borrow the definition of the term vulnerability from the meaning given to it in the terminology of computer security. There it is referred to as a weakness which allows an attacker to reduce a system's Information Assurance. This happens at the intersection of three elements: a system susceptibility or flaw, an attacker’s access to the flaw, and an attacker’s capability to exploit the flaw. In societal terms, this would read as (1) flaw or susceptibility (2) existence of an enemy or a threat (3) ability of the threat to exploit the flaw. Such a framework would necessitate going beyond the traditional approach to a comprehensive assessment of both the susceptibility of the target and the capability of the opposing force.
The conclusion is inescapable that in the world of tomorrow, the nature of intelligence required for comprehensive security would be qualitatively different. This would have implications for the methodology of acquiring and analysing it.
“In a fast changing world, the challenges facing
intelligence practitioners are enormous”
The ambit of intelligence, consequently, has to be comprehensive. It is to be assessed simultaneously on three planes: state‐centric, society‐centric and environment‐centric. The dynamics of these may be different and may require different tools of analysis. The resulting conclusions may be fluid, complex and contradictory and thereby challenge the analytical skills of the operative to bring forth options that can be comprehended and acted upon. Access to these skills, if not available in‐house, would necessitate review of security rules that generally govern the functioning of intelligence organisations. Let me conclude by saying that in a fast changing world, the challenges facing intelligence practitioners are enormous. Can they adapt their organizations, policies and practices to a world in which there is a qualitative change in the notion of security and in the nature of threats? Both compel a paradigm shift in procedures and objectives; so does the imperative of accountability in terms of democratic norms of good governance. Each of these needs to be factored into the work patterns of the intelligence operative of tomorrow. A timely synthesis would pave the way for success. http://sikkimchamberofcommerce.blogspot.com/2010/01/intelligence‐for‐
Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents [email protected]
21 January 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 64 4
world‐of‐tomorrow.html http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20100121/edit.htm#6
India: RAW’s financial scams make Vice President furious Christina Palmer: 20 January 2010: New Delhi (Ed: Excerpts) The financial wrong doings of Indian intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has made Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari furious and deeply worried and forced him to call for the formation of a parliamentary standing committee to fix financial accountability of the country’s top intelligence agency, saying that such a step was necessary to ensure there was no misuse of funds by agencies such as the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Intelligence Bureau (IB). The Daily Mail’s findings indicate that Indian Vice President was alarmed by massive financial embezzlements in November 2009 when he reviewed an internal audit report about RAW’s funds, leaked to the President’s office by some dissidents at RAW’s Lodhi Road‐based headquarters here in New Delhi as an acute rifts has emerged in RAW over the promotion and financial matters, dividing India’s top intelligence agency into two factions. These findings indicate that the President of Indian, upon receiving this highly sensitive document, indicating enormous financial embezzlements in RAW, deputed Vice President to hold a secret inquiry into the matter. These sources say that the inquiry by the Vice President was completed in the first week of January and the findings were secretly presented to the President but nobody was ready to initiate any action against RAW bosses over the findings of the said report. (Ed: report gives detailed history of previous investigations of embezzlement in RAW and the impact on Indian politics) http://dailymailnews.com/0110/21/FrontPage/FrontPage1.htm
Australia: Centre to shield against cyber attacks
New Zealand Herald: Jan 19, 2010 Australia has opened a new citadel to protect itself from attacks in what Defence Minister John Faulkner describes as the "battlefield" of cyberspace. The opening of the Cyber Security Operations Centre follows a year in which defence computer networks were attacked by about 220 "security incidents" a month, with another 220 targeting other government systems. Cyber intrusions on government, critical infrastructure and other information networks are a real threat to Australia's national security and national interests," Faulkner said at the opening of the new centre. Operated by the highly secret Defence Signals Directorate, the centre is part of a series of moves launched last year under the Government's cyber security strategy, and involves specialists from the DSD, the Defence Intelligence Organisation, the Defence Force, Federal Police and the domestic spy agency, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.
Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents [email protected]
21 January 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 64 5
The specifics remain secret but the centre will advise the Government on how best to protect the nation from the cyber threat, linking expertise and intelligence in a co‐ordinated response. The centre and other initiatives under the strategy are being watched closely by key allies, whose secrets could also be compromised by attacks on Australian networks. An indication of the scale of the threat came with the figures of attacks on Australian defence and government systems provided by Faulkner, although no details were provided. He said the threat came from a wide range of sources, including individuals working alone, groups driven by specific issues, organised crime and "state‐based adversaries". http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10620919
Intelligence Tradecraft Tips
US Border intelligence: boarding pass system easy to circumvent wired.com:20 January 2010: Unbelievable but true: If a terrorist obtains someone else’s credit card, he (the terrorist) could then follow instructions on the Internet to doctor a boarding pass; the terrorist could then show the fake boarding pass with his own name instead of the cardholder’s, along with his own ID, to pass through security, where the boarding pass is not scanned into the system; then at the gate, where the terrorist is not asked to show his ID again, he can simply hand in the real boarding pass with the cardholder’s name and be let onto the plane. http://homelandsecuritynewswire.com/us‐boarding‐pass‐system‐easy‐circumvent
Intelligence Literature
Intelligence and security: Role of intelligence within machinery of government Special issue of Public Policy and Administration considers highly topical area of intelligence and security January 18, 2010 – (Ed: full text articles at links) Coinciding with the centenary celebrations of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, aka MI6) and the Security Service (MI5), a special issue of Public Policy and Administration published this week by SAGE explores the relationship between intelligence, security, and government and public administration. Exploring both practitioner accounts and academic theory, the collection presents a fascinating analysis of historical and contemporary security and intelligence, exploring organisational structures; relationships between different intelligence agencies; the concept of the 'intelligence community'; and the role of intelligence within the machinery of government.
MI6 building, Vauxhall Bridge, London
Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents [email protected]
21 January 2010 SA Intelligencer Number 64 6
The special issue includes articles from Sir David Omand (Creating Intelligence Communities) and Sir David Pepper (The Business of Sigint: The Role of Modern Management in the Transformation of GCHQ,) both ex Directors of the government intelligence communications centre, GCHQ, writing in a personal capacity. Writing on his experiences of both US and UK intelligence communities, Sir David Omand's article indicates how separate funding arrangements within government, the need for separate advice and the reality of rivalry has in the past led to the difficulty of seeing intelligence as a single focused arm of government; yet the need for co‐ordination and 'joined up' approaches especially after 9/11 make the case for a stronger sense of intelligence community. Sir David Pepper's article shows how GCHQ used modern management approaches often adapted from the private sector in the wake of massive changes in the post Cold War security environment, particularly in the context of the explosion of the internet as a communications media.
Sir David Pepper
Leading academics contributing to the special issue include Philip Davies, who outlines various perspectives on the intelligence and security communities: from part of the 'core executive' of government to the organisational politics of inter‐agency dependence and the rivalrous search for primacy and influence, to the playing out of bureaucratic power building and 'bureau shaping'. Christopher Grey and Andrew Sturdy (controversial analysis of Bletchley Park, the site of British Allied code breaking during World War 2, suggesting that the success of the organisation was a result of its chaotic, informal approach and the lack of focused organisational structures, Martin Smith and Christopher Murphy (presenting a less successful model from the Special Operations Executive, the body set up to encourage resistance in occupied Europe and the British Empire).
Calendar: Intelligence related conferences
January 2010 DGI Europe 2010: The 6th Annual European Geospatial Intelligence Conference & Exhibition: 25‐27 January 2010: London, UK More information available at
February 2010 17‐20 Feb: International Studies Association (ISA) New Orleans, USA: (Ed: Excellent Intelligence Studies track)
March 2010 9‐12 March: Society for Competitive Intelligence Professionals Annual Conference (SCIP), Washington DC, USA
11‐12 March: 5th International Conference on the Ethics of National Security Intelligence, Washington DC, USA
Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents [email protected]
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Editor: Dalene Duvenage Click on hyperlinks to open documents [email protected]
May 2010 • 3‐7 May: LEIU/IALEIA Annual Training Conference: Orlando, FL, USA
• 9‐12 May: 1st Naked Intelligence Conference ‐ Bridging the Knowing‐Doing Gap Mondorf‐les‐Bains, Luxembourg
• 23‐26 May: IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Vancouver, B.C., Canada
• 25‐27 May: International Association For Intelligence Education (IAFIE) Annual Conference, Ottawa, Canada
June 2010 • 7‐9 June: Security in Government Conference 2010: Securing Government’s Business, Canberra, Australia
• 14‐17 June: Information Security and Cryptography ‐ Fundamentals and Applications Davos, Switzerland
July 2010 • 11‐13 July: The Dungarvan Conference 2010: Analytic Best Practices. Dungarvan, Ireland
• 27‐29 July: Intelligence – The Next Domino? Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers (AIPIO) Annual Conference: Melbourne, Australia
August 2010
• 09‐11 August: International Symposium on Open Source Intelligence & Web Mining 2010 (OSINT‐WM 2010) Odense, Denmark
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