Contents of Section 5: Reticular canal system for Interlinking Indian Rivers.Chapter 8-Facts and figures related to Drought in India.8.1-F&F – India digs deeper in to the drought.8.2-F&F – More than 100 million are at risk due to drought.8.3-F&F – Millions of death due to drought.8.4-F&F – Drought translate in to a fall in growth.8.5-F&F – Environmental issues in India.8.6-F&F – Rapid growth of population and its effect on natural resources and environment;8.7-F&F – Water supply and sanitation in India. 8.8-F&F – Pollution of Ganga.8.9-F&F – Drought as climatic anomaly.8.10-F&F – Seasonal rain falls and droughts. 8.11-F&F –Without rain most of the crops will be destroyed. 8.12-F&F - GDP was known to drop when there was a bad drought. 8.13-F&F – Sun-blistered west and central regions. 8.14-F&F – Food—fruits and vegetables—would not exist without pollinators visiting flowers. 8.15-F&F – Water, the stuff of life, has become the source of dangerous friction. 8.16-F&F – Types of drought.8.17-F&F – National commission on agriculture classifies drought.8.18-F&F – Drought - the silent threat to rural economy.8.19-F&F – Drought monitoring.8.20-F&F – Space technology for drought monitoring.

Chapter 8: Facts and figures related to Drought in India:8.1 . F&F – India digs deeper in to the drought.

[Drought:

With water supply running out, India digs deeper in to their drought.Posted Oct 01, 2006 at 07:08AM by Mabie A. Listed in: Natural Resources Tags: India.Having resources at hand that will sustain the life in any country is a big must, particularly if your population has gone past the one billion mark in the status quo. But what if you're running low on these resources, and there isn't much the government can do about it? Obviously, that scenario spells trouble.The region of India seems to be facing its most challenging obstacle with their water supply running unbelievably low. In the past decade, more and more parts of the country have fallen into a dry spell, experiencing little to no rain.The most apparent implication of this dry spell that they cannot sustain the kind of lifestyle they indulged in before and would like to develop further, particularly food production. Gone are the days when they would till their lands and wait for harvest to put food on the table, and to sell to the markets. Now, farming has been taken over by digging. And the dry season isn't making the fight an easy one.

Because of the rapid decline in their water supply, India's people have turned to digging wells in order for them to have access to this fundamental natural resource. But because of lax government policies and a seemingly loose structure in the implementation of whatever little policies they may have, the people of India only digs more, and their problems grow deeper.In the district of Jaipur, up to 80% of the groundwater blocks are already deemed to be in danger of running out. Even Punjab, considered to be one of the few remaining fertile, rain-drenched pockets of the country is not spared with 79% of groundwater blocks classified as overexploited or critical.The situation is exacerbated by the indiscriminate digging of the locals for water wells. But then again, who can blame them, really? If they do not dig up wells, they will not be able to sustain themselves and most likely perish from thirst. That is why most people, especially those who are lucky enough to have their own parcels of land, dig up wells for their water supply, even though they are very well aware that they are running on low. Because of the excessive diggings over the past years, water in wells have dropped to as much as 130 ft, twice as deep as ten years ago."We are close to the finishing point," says a farmer from Peeple Ka Bas. "The water is almost gone."It is indeed a sad state, especially since water is considered to be one of, if not the most important, natural resource that man needs to survive. For now, government efforts include water deliveries via train just so the residents of small towns can fill their buckets with water for 15 minutes every 48 hours. Source [45] ]

With RCS underground water in all the places of the nation will reappear, all the present bore wells and open wells will be filled with quality water. There will not be any necessity to dig new bore wells with RCS. The free flowing surface water of the RCS will be good enough to use for domestic purposes provided the RCS is not contaminated by the activity of the people. Strict policies on solid – liquid – gaseous waste disposal will lead to prevention of contamination of surface water.

8.2 . F&F – More than 100 million are at risk due to drought.

[India: More than 100 million at risk: Low rainfall during the last two years has caused severe drought conditions in 11 Indian States. An estimated 130 million people - 15 percent of the population - in more than 70,000 villages and 230 urban centres are at risk. Apart from economic loss due to low agricultural production, loss of animal wealth, inadequate nutrition and primary health care, the impact of the drought is likely to retard the development process. The most severely affected States are Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh.

UNICEF is seeking US $3.575 million in funding in support of relief efforts to help an estimated population of 60 million people in the five worst affected states. Of these, approximately 9 million are children and 1.2 million are pregnant women. The immediate short term measures include the trucking of water, the rehabilitation of wells and hand pumps, the purification of water sources, surface water storage, mobility support, water purification tablets, vitamin A, oral rehydration salts and hygiene education flyers. The long-term strategy addresses household water security through the promotion of rooftop rainwater harvesting; the sustainability of community water sources through ground water recharge structures with user participation; and the environmental protection of these sources. Sanitation and hygiene education are also underway. Source [46]]

With RCS – the rain fall on all the areas becomes better because the clouds will form locally. People need not wait for the rain to come for their cultivation and domestic purposes because RCS will supply adequate water to all the places continuously.

Impact of drought like low agricultural production, loss of animal wealth, inadequate nutrition, and retardation in the development process will never occur with RCS. Even the most severely drought affected States like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh will get adequate water for all the water related activities in all the days of the year through RCS.

The immediate short term measures like ‘trucking of water, the rehabilitation of wells and hand pumps, the purification of water sources, surface water storage, mobility support, water purification tablets, vitamin A, oral rehydration salts and hygiene education flyers’ are not going to give permanent solution for the problem and the money spent in this way can be utilized to create the permanent solution like creation of RCS.The long-term strategies like ‘household / MV buildings water security through the promotion of rooftop rainwater harvesting; the sustainability of community water sources through ground water recharge structures with user participation; and the environmental protection of these sources. Sanitation and hygiene education’ can be easily done through the VPA in the MV.

8.3 . F&F – Millions of death due to drought.[Drought in India has resulted in tens of millions of deaths over the course of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries. Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on the climate of India: a favorable southwest summer monsoon is critical in securing water for irrigating Indian crops. In some parts of India, the failure of the monsoons result in water shortages, resulting in below-average crop yields. This is particularly true of major drought-prone regions such as southern and eastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Gujarat, and Rajasthan.In the past, droughts have periodically led to major Indian famines, including the Bengal famine of 1770, in which up to one third of the population in affected areas died; the 1876–1877 famine, in which over five million people died; and the 1899 famine, in which over 4.5 million died. All such episodes of severe drought correlate with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. El Niño-related droughts have also been implicated in periodic declines in Indian agricultural output. Nevertheless, ENSO events that have coincided with abnormally high sea surfaces temperatures in the Indian Ocean—in one instance during 1997 and 1998 by up to 3 °C (5 °F)—have resulted in increased oceanic evaporation, resulting in unusually wet weather across India. Such anomalies have occurred during a sustained warm spell that began in the 1990s. A contrasting phenomenon is that, instead of the usual high pressure air mass over the southern Indian Ocean, an ENSO-related oceanic low pressure convergence center forms; it then continually pulls dry air from Central Asia, desiccating India during what should have been the humid summer monsoon season. This reversed air flow causes India's droughts. The extent that an ENSO event raises sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean influences the degree of drought. Source [47] ]

We will not read news like this with RCS, we can eradicate the word ‘Drought’ with RCS may not be the ‘Flood’.

It is better that we need to do permanent solutions for eradication the drought situation at least by the sufferings that we are under and from the history. People dying due to various reasons during drought can be prevented with the permanent solutions like RCS. Contrasting phenomenon like ‘instead of the usual high pressure air mass over the southern Indian Ocean, an ENSO-related oceanic low pressure convergence center formation; it then continually pulls dry air from Central Asia, causing India's droughts’ can be prevented from the RCS, thus the periodic declines in Indian agricultural output can be prevented.

8.4 . F&F – Drought translate in to a fall in growth.[How does a drought translate into a fall in growth? Since agriculture constitutes about 25 per cent of GDP, a four percentage point decline in agricultural production should directly translate into a one percentage point decline in GDP growth. In addition, there are other effects. The linkages between agriculture and GDP arise from both the demand and the supply side. On the demand side, when agriculture does well, rural incomes rise. A rise in rural incomes leads to greater demand for industrial products. It has been seen that consumer goods do well when rural incomes rise. In some cases the impact is immediate, in others the effect comes with a lag. The sales of shampoos, soaps and bicycles might respond immediately, whereas the sales of motorcycles, fertiliser, tractors and televisions may have a lagged impact. Source [48] ]

When we eradicate the drought then there is no question of fall in growth. We can expect good rural income with RCS – VPA – MV – MN. This good rural income leading to better industrial product demand can be managed with VP Factories after assessing the type of demand and this income again will be distributed to the people and the nation thus the indivual income and the national income improves and the people will lead quality life.

8.5 . F&F – Environmental issues in India.[Environmental issues in India: The rapid growing population and economic development are leading to the environmental degradation in India because of the uncontrolled growth of urbanization and industrialization, expansion and massive intensification of agriculture, and the destruction of forests.

Major environmental issues are Forest and Agricultural land degradation, Resource depletion (water, mineral, forest, sand, rocks etc) Environmental degradation, Public Health, Loss of Biodiversity, Loss of resilience in ecosystems, Livelihood Security for the Poor.

It is estimated that the country’s population will increase to about 1.26 billion by the year 2016. The projected population indicates that India will be the first most populous country in the world and China will be ranking second in the year 2050. India having 18% of the world's population on 2.4% of world's total area has greatly increased the pressure on its natural resources. Water shortages, soil exhaustion and erosion, deforestation, air and water pollution afflicts many areas.

India's water supply and sanitation issues are related to many environmental issues. Source [49]]

Population can be effectively controlled with VPA- VPH-MV-MN. We can achieve better economic development in the absence of enviornamental destruction. Enviornmental destruction decreases because the total area consumed in the form of villages is going to decrease (Total number of villages is going to decrease from 6 lakh villages to 40 thousand VPA), the total area consumed by the roads and infrastructure is going to decrease, the VPA will actively involve in the process of forest creation in their village limits, fuel consumption is going to decrease since people need not use vehicle inside their village panchayath limit and with CRS - CRTS, VPA will involve in the preventive process of land degradation / erosion by implanting plants at appropriate places, desilting and reutilization of the same soil as manure is possible with RCS thus the top soil depositing at the river delta region can be prevented, water shortage will never occur with RCS, air pollution can be prevented to the maximum by non utilization of vehicles inside the village – mass transportation – minimizing the transportation – transportation of ready to utilize or ready to store products instead of transporting the raw materials and again the ready to use materials back, water pollution can be prevented by not discharging any waste to the water paths – proper treatment of the waste – recycling of the waste in an appropriate way can be done through VPA.

8.6 . F&F – Rapid growth of population and its effect on natural resources and environment;

[One of the primary causes of environmental degradation in a country could be attributed to rapid growth of population, which adversely affects the natural resources and environment. The uprising population and the environmental deterioration face the challenge of sustainable development. The existence or the absence of favorable natural resources can facilitate or retard the process of socio-economic development. The three basic demographic factors of births (natality),deaths (mortality) and human migration (migration) and immigration (population moving into a country produces higher population) produce changes in population size, composition, distribution and these changes raise a number of important questions of cause and effect.

Population growth and economic development are contributing to many serious environmental calamities in India. These include heavy pressure on land, land degradation, forests, habitat destruction and loss of biodiversity. Changing consumption pattern has led to rising demand for energy. The final outcomes of this are air pollution, global warming, climate change, water scarcity and water pollution. Source [49] ]

The man power of the population can be effectively utilized in the process of protecting the nature in a scientific way through VPA like implanting the plants and creating forest or converting thin forest in to thick forest. Increased utilization of natural sources of energy like solar energy instead of fire wood, migration and urbanization can be well controlled with VPA.

8.7 . F&F – Water supply and sanitation in India. [Water supply and sanitation in India: Out of India's 3,119 towns and cities, just 209 have partial treatment facilities, and only 8 have full wastewater treatment facilities (WHO 1992). 114 cities

dump untreated sewage and partially cremated bodies directly into the Ganges River. Downstream, the untreated water is used for drinking, bathing, and washing. This situation is typical of many rivers in India as well as other developing countries. Open defecation is widespread even in urban areas of India. Source [49] ]

All the cities, towns and the VPA will have scientific method of treatment of waste and recycling system and thus their effect on the environment can be controlled locally. Since even the cities and the VPA on the banks of Rivers treats the waste and utilizing the treated water for the growth of trees like neem, rose, teak and so on, no water generated as the waste water will enter in to the rivers directly. The MV is planned in such a way that it is away from the water pathways and the distance between the MV and the water pathway should be in such a way that even during the seasons of flood the water should not touch the village limits and there should be sufficient area available to create the forest area by utilizing the treated waste water from the village. No one will enjoy open air defecation since everyone will have good attractive toilets and bathrooms in their own house in the MV.

8.8 . F&F – Pollution of Ganga.

[Pollution of Ganga

To know why 1,000 Indian children die of diarrheal sickness every day, take a wary stroll along the Ganges in Varanasi. As it enters the city, Hinduism’s sacred river contains 60,000 faecal coliform bacteria per 100 millilitres, 120 times more than is considered safe for bathing. Four miles downstream, with inputs from 24 gushing sewers and 60,000 pilgrim-bathers, the concentration is 3,000 times over the safety limit. In places, the Ganges becomes black and septic. Corpses, of semi-cremated adults or enshrouded babies, drift slowly by. The Economist on December 11, 2008. Source [49] ]

Not only the cities but all the VPA coming on either the sides of the rivers will treat the waste water in their village limit and will be utilizing for develepmet of trees like neem – rose – teak wood, thus the fecal matter entering in to the river will be avoided. All the partially flowing and contaminated rivers will be flushed with the water of RCS and thus the water becomes safe for the people to use in the down stream.

8.9 . F&F – Drought as climatic anomaly.[Agricultural drought;Agricultural Drought scenario in India;Drought is a climatic anomaly, characterized by deficient supply of moisture resulting either from sub-normal rainfall, erratic rainfall distribution, higher water need or a combination of all the three factors. About two thirds of the geographic area of India receives low rainfall (less than 1000 mm), which is also characterized by uneven and erratic distributions. Out of net sown area of 140 million hectares about 68% is reported to be vulnerable to drought conditions and about 50% of such vulnerable area is classified as ‘severe’, where frequency of drought is almost regular. Abnormally

low rainfall in 1979 in India reported to have reduced the overall food grain by as much as 20%. The 1987 drought in India damaged 58.6 million hectares of cropped area affecting over 285 million people. The 2002 drought had reduced the sown area to 112 million hectares from 124 million hectares and the food grain production to 174 million tons from 212 million tons. The total food grain production in India has to be stepped up from 212 million metric tons to 300 million metric tons by 2020 to meet the food demands of growing population. Therefore, there is a need for effective monitoring of agricultural drought, its onset, progression and impact on crops to minimize the damages.

All the developing countries, being primarily agrarian, are very much dependent on the vagaries of seasonal rainfall and climatic conditions and hence more vulnerable to droughts. On an average, severe drought occurs once every five years in most of the tropical countries, though often they occur on successive years causing severe losses to agriculture and allied sectors. More than 500 million people live in the drought prone areas of the world and 30% of the entire continental surface is affected by droughts or desertification process. The water needs in agricultural sector are going to be very high, as several thousand tons of water is required to produce each metric ton of food grains. Therefore, there is a need for effective monitoring of agricultural drought, its onset, progression and impact on crops to minimize the damages. Source [50]]

This will never occur with RCS, all the lands will get adequate water with RCS at any time of the day, any day of the month, any month of the year and any amount of water. People need on wait for the rain to occur for their particular area. Adequate water at appropriate time will lead to good yield.

It is easy to get the water as per our requirement with RCS, thus we will not have damages to the sown and cropped areas and the productivity in the field of agriculture will improve.

8.10 . F&F – Seasonal rain falls and droughts. [Agricultural Drought scenario in IndiaAll the developing countries, being primarily agrarian, are very much dependent on the vagaries of seasonal rainfall and climatic conditions and hence more vulnerable to droughts. On an average, severe drought occurs once every five years in most of the tropical countries, though often they occur on successive years causing severe losses to agriculture and allied sectors. More than 500 million people live in the drought prone areas of the world and 30% of the entire continental surface is affected by droughts or desertification process. The water needs in agricultural sector are going to be very high, as several thousand tons of water is required to produce each metric ton of food grains. Therefore, there is a need for effective monitoring of agricultural drought, its onset, progression and impact on crops to minimize the damages. Source [51]]With RCS all the lands will get sufficient water in all the years. With better agriculture and forest land creation we can prevent processes like desertification.

8.11 . F&F –Without rain most of the crops will be destroyed. [Without rain most of the crops will be destroyed.

Drought fuels India farmer fears.

Maharashtra is one of India's most prosperous states - but despite that, farmers have been committing suicide for the past three years in despair at crop failure, drought and Growing indebtedness.

There, the steady rise in farmers' suicides has become a shameful public scandal, even forcing the new Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to pay a visit earlier this month.

In denial

According to statistics provided by the Cotton Growers Association of Maharashtra, 330 farmers in the cotton and soya bean-growing region of Vidarbha committed suicide in the last three years.

Lack of rain

"If it does not rain - and rain well - in the next eight to 10 days, 35-40% of all the crops will be destroyed. If there is no rain for 15 days, the situation will get very serious". The civil servant who runs the Nagpur division admits the situation is bad. Source [52] ]

Water scarcity and loss in agriculture will never occur with RCS in any part of India. Farmers need not wait or rain in any season of the year, water for agriculture will be available in sufficient quantity all the time of the year. Thus RCS will bring an end to the farmer’s suicide due to loss in agriculture.

8.12 . F&F - GDP was known to drop when there was a bad drought. [Drought-proofing India.

Ila Patnaik Posted: Aug 09, 2004 at 0000 hrs IST

Forecasts for GDP growth in the Indian economy have been revised downwards as a result of the monsoon scenario. But even though growth projections for agriculture are negative, the growth projection for GDP remains positive. Growth is not expected to fall drastically. For instance, in CRISIL’s recent forecast, agricultural GDP is projected to be minus 2.5 per cent, as a result of the drought. But GDP growth projections have only been revised downwards from 6.2 per cent to 5.6 per cent. This is a big change, as compared with previous decades when GDP was known to drop when there was a bad drought. How does a drought translate into a fall in growth? Since agriculture constitutes about 25 per cent of GDP, a four percentage point decline in agricultural production should directly translate into a one percentage point decline in GDP growth. In addition, there are other effects. The linkages between agriculture and GDP arise from both the demand and the supply side. On the demand side, when agriculture does well, rural incomes rise. A rise in rural incomes leads to greater demand for industrial products. It has been seen that consumer goods do well when rural incomes rise. In some cases the impact is immediate, in others the effect comes with a lag. The sales of shampoos, soaps and bicycles might respond immediately, whereas the sales of motorcycles, fertiliser, tractors and televisions may have a lagged impact. On the supply side, increase in agricultural production increases the supply of food and raw materials. Cereals, fruit, vegetables, milk, meat, eggs, etc enter the consumption bundle of all households. Their plentiful supply and lower prices, following a good monsoon, reduces the cost of living. Real incomes of both the urban and rural populations increase. They both have more to spend on non-agricultural products. Also, there are a large number of industries that use farm products as raw materials. Products such as sugarcane, jute, cotton and oilseeds are directly used by industry. Cleaper raw materials augur well for these industries. These linkages were very strong in the past. In the 1950s a less than 5 per cent decline in agriculture led to a fall in both GDP-industry and in total GDP. But this has not happened since the 1990s. The last time GDP saw an actual decline was in 1979-80. This was the result of both a very bad monsoon, which resulted in agricultural output falling by a shocking 13 per cent, and an oil price shock. In that year, industrial growth declined by over 3 per cent, and GDP fell by 5.2 per cent. However, in the 1980s and 1990s when agricultural output declined, though industrial growth slowed down, industrial production did not fall. Even when agricultural output fell by 5.2 per cent in 2002-03 (a very bad monsoon), industrial growth remained positive and GDP grew at 4 per cent. As a consequence of the change in the importance of agriculture in industrial and total GDP in the economy, the Indian economy is witnessing industrial business cycles, rather than monsoon cycles. What is responsible for this change? The most important factor is that non-agricultural sectors have been growing faster. Consequently, the share of agriculture in GDP has been declining, while that of industry and services has been increasing. A fall in demand arising from a drop in agricultural incomes can be devastating if the bulk of industrial demand depends on it. However, if the non-agricultural economy is bigger and stronger and the demand for industry only slows down, then the impact is not so devastating. When a drought hits incomes (either amongst farmers or amongst other households), the household tries to protect consumption by using savings or credit. Higher savings have given households greater power to smooth their consumption. The increase in household savings since the 1980s has led to a build-up of wealth, which allows households to smooth consumption even in bad years when their income declines, by dissaving.

The increase in the availability of retail credit to households in recent years has allowed urban households to borrow and spend irrespective of the rains, which helps sustain non-agricultural GDP. In addition, the export demand for manufacturing has added to the reduction in the dependence of industrial demand on Indian agriculture. The result of the change in these patterns of growth is striking. The mean GDP growth rate has risen sharply. If we compute an average mean growth rate of GDP every year for the preceding 10 years, starting in 1961, we find that this rate has risen from a 3-4 per cent sluggish growth rate, often called the Hindu rate of growth, to over 5 per cent. Further, the volatility of the growth has gone down sharply. India is no longer subject to sharp ups and downs in production and income. While it is true that the monsoon will pull down growth, raise expenditure on drought relief and reduce tax revenue collection, but its impact will be limited. All the ills of the economy can no longer be placed at its door. Traditional issues in agricultural policy — such as improving irrigation — are still necessary for reducing the vulnerability of agriculture to monsoons. But the growth of non-agricultural sectors, high household savings rates and access to credit have created conditions under which consumer demand does not dry up in a year of drought. Drought-proofing India critically hinges on obtaining high growth rates of industry and services. Source [53] ]

In the recent years because of development of sectors like industry, IT, servise sector leading to increase in the GDP, still the major population of the India and the better increase in the GDP depends on the people who depend on agriculture in India. Unless other wise we make the drastic changes in the agriculture for improving the productivity by improving the irrigation the GDP of the nation will not increase drastically and we will be in a slower phase as copared to many other nation in this rapidly progressing world. Creation of RCS will solve the problems related to irrigation and thus the people dependent on agriculture will produce more income and they also produce demand on the industry for their needs and thus the industry and the agriculture segment together will lead to better GDP.

8.13 . F&F – Sun-blistered west and central regions. [South Asia reels from drought and famineSource: The Christian Science MonitorDate: August 27th, 2000Just as India is recovering from the devastating cyclone that ripped through the east last November, wells have recently dried up and crops have withered in the drought afflicting the nation's sun-blistered west and central regions.Large parts of western and central India, particularly Gujarat and Rajasthan states, have been hardest hit by the crisis. Officials say it is impossible to estimate how many people have died, but urge international intervention to stem acute hunger, mass exodus, and locust invasions. Source [54] ]

With RCS we will not be seeing the people dieing from drought, suffereing from hunger and so on.

8.14 . F&F – Food—fruits and vegetables—would not exist without pollinators visiting flowers. [World food supply at risk, experts warnSource: CNNDate: August 16th, 2000.One-third of all our food—fruits and vegetables—would not exist without pollinators visiting flowers. But honeybees, the primary species that fertilizes food-producing plants, have suffered dramatic declines in recent years, mostly from afflictions introduced by humans. Domestic honeybees have lost as many as one-third of their hives and their wild cousins have become virtually extinct in many places around the world. A variety of troubles threaten the pollinators: Endless waves of development destroy nesting and feeding grounds; pesticides decimate them along with other beneficial insects. Agribusiness increasingly treats honeybees as a mass commodity, exposing them to uncontrollable plagues of pests. Source [54] ]

With RCS – VPA – MV – MN there will be better biological cycles. It is possible to stop using all the pesticides with VPA thus the harmful effects of the same on the useful pollinators.

8.15 . F&F – Water, the stuff of life, has become the source of dangerous friction. [Thirsty planetSource: Agence France-PresseDate: July 2, 2000.Water, the stuff of life, has become the source of dangerous friction, with developing nations jousting over water supplies as their populations soar and their environment deteriorates."Worldwide, at least 214 rivers flow through two or more countries, but no enforceable law governs the allocation and use of international waters," Sandra Postel, a senior researcher for the Worldwatch Institute, points out.According to the World Commission on Water, a 20-percent increase in fresh water will be needed by 2025, when the world’s population of six billion people is expected to have increased by three billion.Ismail Serageldin, vice president of the World Bank, made an ominous prediction in 1995: "Many of the wars of this century were about oil—but the wars of the next century will be about water."The biggest flash point is the Middle East, a region that is predominantly desert in climate, has a huge rate of population growth, shrinking aquifers and a seething tradition of strife.Water, water everywhere--but only 0.8% to drink.Work is to begin on canals intended to siphon millions of cubic meters of the Nile daily and channel them into the Western Desert--transforming thousands of square miles of "the howling waste" into farms brimming with fruits and other crops.But the plan involves a commodity--fresh water--that is becoming worryingly scarce in the Third World. Many observers fear war could erupt as Egypt and its neighbors--Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea--struggle for access to the Nile's dwindling waters.

Egypt plans to divert an annual 5.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water into canals to turn four million hectares of sand into prime agricultural land. Egypt recently threatened to attack Ethiopia for taking too much from the Nile. Now it wants to increase its own 55.5 billion cubic meters annual extraction. World Bank vice-president Ismail Seageldin says: "Many wars this century were about oil, but the wars of the next century will be about water."Seven percent of the world's population has not enough water. By 2050, this will be 70 percent. Yet our planet has 1,400 million million million liters of water: 100 billion liters a head. But 97 percent is salty and much of the rest is trapped underground or stored as polar ice. Only 0.8 percent of the Earth's water is accessible--and drinkable: about a billion billion liters.It is enough on average. But some countries have too much. Others have too little. Source [54] ]

I think the nation has to understand the seriousness and act according for the supply of water to all the parts of the country on emergency basis. If we take rest for few years by not taking any serious thought to get the water for all the people of the nation and if we plan the same after some years by that time we may be in a position to do the project but the international laws may stop us not to carry out any such projects and the people of the nation is going suffer from the deficiency. The word ‘war for water’ needs to be understood efficiently.

8.16 . F&F – Types of drought.[What is drought?Droughts can be of three kinds: - 1. Meteorological drought: This happens when the actual rain fall Normal: 19 per cent above normal. 19 per cent below normal rainfall in an area is significantly less than the climatological mean of that area. The country as a whole may have a normal monsoon, but different meteorological districts and sub-divisions can have below normal rainfall. The rainfall categories for smaller areas are defined by their deviation from a meteorological area's normal rainfall – Excess: 20 per cent or more above normal, Deficient: 20 per cent below normal - 59 per cent below normal, Scanty: 60 per cent or more below normal.

2. Hydrological drought: A marked depletion of surface water causing very low stream flow and drying of lakes, rivers and reservoirs.

3. Agricultural drought: Inadequate soil moisture resulting in acute crop stress and fall in agricultural productivity.

Earlier years of all-India drought 1987, 1979, 1972.

Drought 2001-2002.

Drought and flood affected regions.

This year, 19 per cent of India's land area experienced 'moderate drought’; 10 per cent suffered 'severe drought'

Rainfall in July (most important for agriculture) was 49 per cent 'deficient'. The last time this figure fell below 45 per cent was in 1911

When there is more than 10 per cent rainfall deficiency, and more than 20 per cent of the area of the country is under drought, the situation is called "all-India drought"

In 2002, rainfall deficiency was 19 per cent, and 29 per cent of India was under drought .

Meterological sub-division. Rainfall (per cent below normal).

SEVERE DROUGHTWest Rajasthan -71East Rajasthan -60MODERATE DROUGHT.Haryana -36Chandigarh -36Delhi -36Punjab -36Coastal Andhra Pradesh -26Rayalseema -33North Interior Karnataka -31South Interior Karnataka -44Coastal Karnataka -30Tamil Nadu -45Kerala -35Lakshadweep -45

(Source: Down to Earth, January 15, 2003.)

Drought 2000-2001

During the drought of 2000-2001, a total of eight states have fallen foul of the rain gods. These included Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra

and Tehri Garhwal districts in Uttaranchal. Some states were in their second or third consecutive year of drought.

Frightening figures: States hit by drought

Chhattisgarh: 10,252 villages in 12 of 16 districts, 9,400,000 people affected. Gujarat: 12,240 villages in 22 of 25 districts, 29,100,000 people, 107,00,000 cattle. Madhya Pradesh: 22,490 villages in 32 of 45 districts, 12,700,000 people, 8,570,000 cattle. Orissa: 15,000 villages in 28 of 30 districts, 11900,000 people, 39900,000 cattle. Rajasthan: 31,000 villages in 31 of 32 districts, 33,000,000 people, 39,900,000 cattle. Himachal Pradesh: All 12 districts affected, 4600,000 people, 88,000 hectare of crop area. Maharashtra: 20,000 villages in 26 of 35 districts, 45,500,000 people, 258,000 cattle.

Uttaranchal: One district affected.

In the 70 important water reservoirs in India, the storage position is officially described as the lowest in a decade. Ground water levels have fallen considerably in the eight droughts hit states. In a number of districts, says the nodal agriculture ministry, the fall in water levels is at the rate of over 2 metres a year- this includes eight districts in Chattisgarh, 13 in Gujarat, 30 in Madhya Pradesh, 18 in Orissa and 15 in Rajasthan.

Source: Catchwater, a CSE newsletter, June 2001. Drought 1999-2000. Source [55]]

With RCS all the drought prone states of the India like Rajastan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Panjab, Andrapradesh and Rayal seema, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, and Kerala can be irrigated well. The areas of the India which are coloured blue are flood prone that does not mean the flood is due to rain over that area, but it is due to the convergence of river water over there. With RCS all these water will be diverted at their tributary level at a higher level and thus more water entering to the areas colored blue will be avoided and this water will be supplied to the drought prone areas which are colored brown in the map.

8.17 . F&F – National commission on agriculture classifies drought.

[Types of drought;

Several definitions of drought are available in literature. In India, National Commission on Agriculture (1976) has categorized drought into three types, viz., meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought based on the concept of its utilization. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines agricultural drought as a combination of temperature and precipitation over a period of several months leading to substantial reduction (less than 90%) in yield. India Meteorological Department (IMD) classified drought as an occasion when the rainfall for a week is half of the normal or less, when the normal weekly rainfall is above 5 mm or more. If such 4 consecutive weeks occur from middle of May to October, it is considered as

agricultural drought. From agriculture perspective, drought is a condition, in which, the amount of water needed for transpiration and direct evaporation exceeds the amount available in the soil.

In meteorological terms, a drought is "a sustained, regionally extensive, deficiency in precipitation". All other definitions are related to the effect or impact of below normal precipitation on water resources, agriculture, social and economic activities; hence the terms hydrological drought and agricultural drought. In quantitative terms, the definitions could vary among countries and regions. In India, the definition for "meteorological drought" adopted by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is a situation when the deficiency of rainfall at a meteorological sub-division level is 25 per cent or more of the long-term average (LTA) of that sub-division for a given period. The drought is considered "moderate", if the deficiency is between 26 and 50 per cent, and severe" if it is more than 50 per cent. Based on this definition, the National Commission on Agriculture has given the following broad classifications

* Hydrological drought: prolonged meteorological drought resulting in depletion of surface water from reservoirs, lakes, streams, rivers, cessation of spring flow and fall in groundwater levels causing severe shortage of water for livestock and human needs;

* Agricultural drought: when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate during the crop growing season to support healthy crop growth to maturity, which situation causes extreme crop stress and wilting? It is defined as a period of four consecutive weeks (of severe meteorological drought) with a rainfall deficiency of more than 50 per cent of the LTA or with a weekly rainfall of 5 cm or less during the period from mid-May to mid- October (the Kharif season) when 80 per cent of the country’s total crop is planted, or six such consecutive weeks during the rest of the year.

Drought differs from other natural hazards in many respects -most complex and least understood of all disasters. While it is difficult to demarcate the onset and end of drought but the effects of drought accumulate for a considerable period of time. Prolonged droughts or abnormal weather conditions such as extended winters, cold summers, floods, biological factors like plague of locusts or rodents result in famines. On an average, severe drought occurs once every five years in most of the tropical countries, though often they occur on successive years causing misery to human life and live stock. The crisis brought out by this hazard directly hit poorest and most deprived sections of our society thus destroy the life, economy, infrastructure, environment and society because all are inter linked.

Period Drought yearsNo. of years

1801-25 1801,04,06,12,19,25 61826-50 1832,33,37 31851-75 1853,60,62,66,68,73 61876-1900

1877,91,99 3

1901-25 1901,04,05,07,11,13,15,18,20,25 101926-50 1939,41 2

1951-75 1951,65,66,68,72,74 61976-02 1979,82,85,87,2002 5

Source [56] ]

We should understand that the drought is not the new problem and it will be there only for few years and then goes off. This is the human sufferings existing from many centuries and the severity is increasing as the population increases. With RCS we can eradicate all types of drought permanently.

8.18 . F&F – Drought - the silent threat to rural economy.

[Drought – the silent threat to rural economy;

Agriculture is the immediate victim of drought disaster – impacting crop area, crop production and farm employment. Droughts in the beginning of the season adversely affect the sown area leaving large portions of agricultural lands as fallow. Mid season droughts result in poor crop growth and reduction in crop yields. Reduction in income and purchasing power of farmers turns the small and marginal farmers into agricultural laborers leading to increase in unemployment. Consequently, farmers and farm workers tend to migrate to urban areas in search of employment opportunities.Shortage of drinking water and starvation for food are the other consequences that emerge. Fodder problem drives away the animals to distress sales. Thus climate is the initial causative factor for drought; the implications are manifested by human interactions with the situation. Source [57] ]

Since agriculture is the main profession of the nation and the immediate victim of the drought disaster is the agriculture, we need to take measures to eradicate the drought immediately on emergency basis and the solution for this is the RCS. Since the Drought causes damage to the crop and thus the farm employment, the marginal farm employs are the people who are going to affect at the first and leads to migration to urban areas in search of employment. Thus if we create RCS all the farmers will have better income in their own village and will not migrate.

8.19. F&F – Drought monitoring.[Conventional mechanisms for agricultural drought monitoring;Conventionally agricultural drought conditions are characterized by ground observations on meteorological parameters such as rainfall, aridity and agricultural parameters such as sown crop area, crop condition and crop yield.Meteorological observations;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) prepares rainfall maps on sub-divisional basis every week throughout the year. These maps show the rainfall received during a week and corresponding departures from normal. During monsoon season, these maps are indicative of development of drought. In addition, IMD also provides the information on weekly rainfall and its deviation from normal at district level for the entire country. This information is useful to identify the districts with deficit/scanty rainfall and the prevailing meteorological drought.

IMD also monitors drought using water balance technique which addreesses agricultural drought. The aridity index is calcumated using the formula;Aridity Index = Water deficit/Water need;(Actual Evapotranspiration – Potential Evapotranspiration) / Potential Evapotranspiration.The departure of aridity index from normal percentage terms is used to define the various categories of drought severity. Anomaly upto 25 % is atrtributed to mild drought, 26-50% to moderate drought and >50% to severe drought. IMD has been bringing out weekly aridity anomaly charts from 1979 onwards, based on data from different observatories, covering south west monsoon period. These charts show the departures of actual aridity from normal aridity giving indication of the severity of water deficit to water demand relationship on weekly basis. IMD is also preparing detailed maps of rainfall, temperature (maximum and minimum), cloud cover, relative humidity and analyse this information with prevailing crop conditions and an Agromet Advisory Bulletin is prepared and disseminated to users. Based on rainfall, temperature, soil moisture and evaporation, various indicators of meteorological drought indicators have been developed by researchers as shown in Table 2. Some of these indices like Palmer’s index, Standardised Precipiatation Index, Crop Moisture Index are being used operationally in some of the countries.Year Index1916 Munger’s Index 1919 Kincer Index1930 Morkowitch Index1942 Blumenstock Index1954 Antecedent precipitation index1957 Moisture adequacy index1965 Palmer’s index (PDSI, PHDI)1968 Crop Moisture Index1968 Keetch Byram Drought Index1981 Surface water supply index1993 Standardized precipitaion indexSource [58] ]

It becomes easy to monitor these parameters all over the nation through VPA and all these parameter becomes better with RCS and we can also compare these data before and after the complete establishment of RCS.

8.20 . F&F – Space technology for drought monitoring.

[Space technology for agricultural drought monitoring;

Unlike point observations of ground data, satellite sensors provide direct spatial information on vegetation stress caused by drought conditions. Satellite remote sensing technology is widely used for monitoring crops and agricultural drought assessment. Over the last 20 years, coarse resolution satellite sensors are being used routinely to monitor vegetation and detect the impact of moisture stress on vegetation. AVHRR on NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites has been collecting coarse resolution

imagery world wide with twice daily coverage and synoptic view. The NOAA AVHRR NDVI has been extensively used for drought/vegetation monitoring, detection of drought and crop yield estimation. The Drought Monitor of USA using NOAA-AVHRR data, Golbal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and Advanced Real Time Environmental Monitoring Information System (ARTEMIS) of FAO using Meteosat and SPOT – VGT data, International Water Management Institute (IWMI)’s drought assessment in South west Asia using Modis data, are proven examples for application of coarse resolution satellite images for operational drought assessment. India’s National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS) project stands as an example for operational use of both moderate resolution and coarse resolution satellite data for operational drought assessment at different spatial scales.

Drought indices from satellite data;

The crop/vegetation reflects high in the near infrared due to its canopy geometry, the health of the standing crops / vegetation and absorbs high in the red reflected radiance due to its biomass and accumulated photosynthesis.

Stressed vegetation has a higher reflectance than healthy vegetation in the visible (0.4-0.7 microns) region and lower reflectance in the near infrared (0.7-1.1 microns) region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Vegetation indices take the advantage of this differential response in the visible and near infra red regions of the spectrum.

Using these contrast characteristics of near infrared, red and middle infra red bands which indicate both the health and condition of the crops/ vegetation, different types of vegetation indices have been developed as shown below ;

Difference Vegetation Index Ratio Vegetation Index Infrared Percent Vegetation Index Perpendicular Vegetation Index Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index Weighted Difference Vegetation Index Greenness Vegetation Index Atmospherically Resistant Vegetation Index Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Normalized Difference Wetness Index Enhanced Vegetation Index

Among the various vegetation indices that are now available, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an universally acceptable index for operational drought assessment because of its simplicity in calculation, easy to interpret and its ability to partially compensate for the effects of atmosphere, illumination geometry etc NDVI is a transformation of reflected radiation in the visible and near infrared bands of NOAA AVHRR and is a function of green leaf area and biomass.

NDVI is derived as under;

NDVI= (NIR-Red)/(NIR+Red)

Where Near Infra Red and Red are the reflected radiations in these two spectral bands.

Water, clouds and snow have higher reflectance in the visible region and consequently NDVI assumes negative values for these features. Bare soil and rocks exhibit similar reflectance in both visible and near IR regions and the index values are near zero. The NDVI values for vegetation generally range from 0.1 to 0.6, the higher index values being associated with greater green leaf area and biomass.

In general, growth and decay of crop canopy represents similarities in the temporal vegetation index profile during the crop growth. The peak of this profile corresponds to peak vegetation cover of the crop. Interpretation of vegetation index (VI) profile can be used to derive information on the crop stage. Further VI level at peak vegetative stage or the time integration of VI profile is related with accumulated biomass in the crop or crop condition or crop yields. Lowering of VI values reflects moisture stress in vegetation, resulting from prolonged rainfall deficiency. Such a decrease in VI could also be caused by other stresses such as pest/disease attack, nutrient deficiency or geochemical effects. The seasonal VI profile is thus reflective of vegetation dynamics and condition. Comparison of VI profile of the reporting year and a previous normal agricultural year provides assessment of drought impact in the scale of previous agricultural scenario. Source [59] ]

With space technology the team at the centre and at the state can assess the VPA who are doing well and not well in agriculture and identify the cause for it and suggest the solutions for those who are not doing well and takes the tips from the VPA who are doing well. With RCS we can achieve better things and eradicate drought.

Sources: [45] India-Introduction\Article Detail - Science News - QJ_NET.mht.[46] Internet: Drought disasters – UNICEF.[47] Drought in India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.mht.[48] Internet: Drought-proofing India.[49] Internet: Environmental issues in India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

[50] Internet: Welcome to NRSC – Drought. National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO/DOS, Govt. of India. Recent update in Feb-2009. 2006-2008 National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO/DOS, Govt. of India. Recent update in Feb-2009. Designed & Developed by CMC Limited.

http://dsc.nrsc.gov.in:14000/DSC/Drought/index.jsp?include1=homelink1_b1.jsp&&include2=homelink1_b2.jsp# Welcome to NRSC - Drought.mht.

[51] Internet: Welcome to NRSC – Drought.

[52] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3916559.stm By Zubair Ahmed BBC correspondent in Maharashtra.

[53]India-Introduction\Drought-proofing India.mht.

[54] Famine.mht.

[55] Types of Drought in India.mht.

[56] Welcome to NRSC - Drought1.mht.

[57]Welcome to NRSC - Drought2.mht.

[58] Welcome to NRSC - Drought3.mht.

[59] Welcome to NRSC - Drought4.mht.