s.3.2.newton [호환 모드] · 2012-06-19 4 energy and ghg profile for plug-in appliances –circa...

2012-06-19

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Professor Peter NewtonCRC for Low Carbon Living

Swinburne University, Melbourne

Towards Low Carbon Cities: a Socio-Technical Transition for Residential Energy

Presentation to:The Third Australia – Korean Green

Growth International Workshop

Westin Chosun HotelSeoul, Korea

14-15 may 2012

Australian GHG Emissions Allocated to Sectors, 2009

De-Carbonising Residential Energy Use

←Behaviour Change←Urban Design Innovation←New Technology

11%

8%

Residential Non-Transport

Residential Transport

FROM:

TO:

Reduced energy useand carbon emissionsfrom Residential Sector

Objective: to decarbonise in-dwelling energy use AND urban mobilityVia Sustainability ‘Wedges’:

↓

CHALLENGE: IDENTIFY MOST SIGNIFICANT INTERVENTION POINTS

Transition to Low Carbon Cities: Pathways*

PATHWAY POTENTIAL SPEED OF CHANGE

KEY CHALLENGES/ BARRIERS

Low carbon living(voluntary demand

reduction)Fast- moderate

Behaviour change (closing the intention-

action gap)

Low carbon urban design and re-

designModerate

Innovative capacity of supply side (planning, design, construction)

Low / Zero carbontechnologies Moderate – slow

Path dependency of established energy

systems* Government has key intervention role in all pathways

Pathway #1: Voluntary Behaviour Change

Unlikely, in the absence of:

1.Nationally accepted and ingrained pro-environmental social norms (currently not in evidence; briefly in evidence toward end of recent 12 year drought + PM Rudd’s statement that climate change represented the greatest moral challenge of the 21st century)

2.Government incentives and deterrents that impact household behaviour

What are the Significant Determinants of Consumption of Energy, Water, Housing Space and Urban Travel in Australian Cities?

Source: Newton and Meyer(2011)

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2

Strength of Determinants of Urban Resource Consumption

Source: Newton & Meyer (2010)

Are Individual’s Environmental Attitudes and Intentions Aligned With Actual Consumption ?

“COMMITTED” GREENS

•Prepared to pay more tax/higher charges if the environment benefits

•Environment should be highest priority even if it hurts economy

•Pro green choice behaviour (labelling, no plastic bags, volunteer time to projects)

“MATERIAL” GREENS

•Vehemently opposed to paying more taxes, utility charges

•Moderate support for environment; but expense probably not worth benefits

•Pro green choice except for volunteering time

ENVIRO-SCEPTICS

•Reconciled to paying more

•High percentage see environmental crisis as exaggerated; its not their responsibility; no regulation forcing them to change

•Little involvement in pro-green choice activities

Predominantly inner city residents

High % university graduates

Higher income

Younger

Higher % couples with no childrenand living alone

Predominantly outer suburban

Low % university graduates

Lower incomes

Younger

Family with children

Dispersed locations

Average % university graduates

Lower incomes

Older

Higher % couples with no children and living alone

NO STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFESTYLE GROUPSIN TERMS OF ACTUAL PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION Source; Newton &

Meyer (2011)

Information, Values, Attitudes, Concerns,Intentions

GapActual Behaviours

Constraints,Barriers:•Individual•Contextual

Gap Between Attitudes/Intentions & Actual Behaviour

Source: Newton & Meyer (2011)

Pathway #2 :Technological Innovation: 3 HORIZONS

Source: Newton (2007)

Urban Environmental Domain

H1 H2 H3

Energy Energy efficiencies in housing and industry; house energy rating ; methane bridge

Distributed renewable / low emission energy

Renewables-based solar-hydrogen , solar-electric green economy

Water Water-smart appliances Sewer mining; water sensitive urban design

Integrated urban water systems (recycled stormwater, wastewater)

Buildings Check box system for green building design (e.g. LEED)

real-time life cycle sustainability performance assessment during design – via 3D BIM, PIM and GIS

Ultra-smart buildings and linked infrastructures; embedded intelligence

Waste Product stewardship ;kerbside recycling

Extensive cradle to cradle production – single enterprise

Eco-industrial clusters as new engines for mega-metro economies

Transport &

Communications

Road pricing; telepresence via broadband communications

Hybrid vehicles; high speed rail ;active transport

Intelligent transport systems (ITS); EVs; integrated land use and transport planning

Source: Newton, (2007, 2012)

3 HORIZONS OF URBAN TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION Transition to Renewable Energy (Large scale)

Source: Melbourne Energy Institute (2010)

Wind Turbines Solar Thermal

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TRANSITION TO DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION

Transition to renewable and distributed energy generation in context of national grid

EXISTING CENTRALISED INDUSTRY NEW DISTRIBUTED INDUSTRY

Pathway to De-Carbonising the Housing Sector

Energy Efficient Building

Shell Energy Efficient

Appliances:Built-in,Plug-in

Local Energy

(Distributed/Embedded) Generation Hybrid

Building / Precinct

Link to National

Energy Grid

Source: Newton & Tucker (2010) Hybrid Buildings

Operating Energy Efficiency Ratings for Sydney and Melbourne Housing

Note: current Australian standards for heating and cooling efficiency of housing shell ; the more stars, the less likely the occupants need cooling or heating to stay comfortable.

Sources of CO2 Emissions Derived from Energy Use in Australian Housing : Current Trajectories

Source: EES(2008)

ENERGY AND GHG PROFILEFOR HOT WATER HEATING TECHNOLOGIES – CIRCA 2009 (Victoria)

Annual energy and CO2-e emissions for hot water technologies

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Gas storage Gas instant Electric storage Solar thermalelectric boost

Solar thermalgas boost

Ener

gy: t

otal

(MJ/

yr)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

CO2-

e: to

tal (

kg/y

r)

Energy: total (MJ/yr)CO2-e: total (kg/yr)

ENERGY AND GHG PROFILEFOR KITCHEN APPLIANCES – CIRCA 2009 (Victoria)

Annual energy and CO2-e emissions for sets of cooking appliances

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Cooking: electriccooktop, electric oven,

microwave

Cooking: gas cooktop,electric oven,

microwave

Cooking: gas cooktop,gas oven, microwave

Cooking: all microwave

Ener

gy: t

otal

(MJ/

yr)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

CO2-

e: to

tal (

kg/y

r)

Energy: electricity MJ/yrCO2-e: total (kg/yr)

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ENERGY AND GHG PROFILEFOR PLUG-IN APPLIANCES – CIRCA 2008

Annual CO2-e emissions for plug-in appliances

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ref

riger

ator

Free

zer

Dis

hwas

her

Was

hing

mac

hine

Clo

thes

dry

er

Tele

visi

on

Com

pute

r

Hom

een

terta

inm

ent

syst

ems

Set

top

box

Gam

es

Ket

tle -

elec

tric

Sm

all

mis

cella

neou

s

Sta

ndby

-ot

her e

lect

ric

CO

2-e

(kg/

yr)

CO2-e: operating (kg/yr)

CO2-e: standby total (kg/yr)

Trend in Standby Consumption

Trends in Plug-in Appliance Efficiency

Source: Newton et al 2012

Complication: *increased applianceefficiency +*forecast increase in appliance energy useequates to the operation of some combination of the ‘Jevons’ effect plus ‘affluenza’ effect

FUTURE AREAS FOR BUILDING REGULATION, PRODUCT STANDARDS FOR BUILT-IN EQUIPMENT/APPLIANCES?

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

House: detached single storey

House: detached two storey

Apartment: medium density (no lif t)

Apartment: highrise (with lif t)

CO2-e

(kg/

yr)

CO2-e for housing components

Building heating and cooling Hot water Built-in appliances Plug-in appliances Common

Source: Newton & Tucker (2009)

LOCAL ENERGY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES

> Photovoltaics (PV)> Solar gas boosted hot water> Wind> Fuel cell (gas, solar)> Gas CCHP (combined cooling, heat and

power)> Ground source heat pump

Take-up of Domestic PV in Australia, 2001-2010

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Geography of PV Electricity Generation in Australian Cities (2010): a Suburban Technology for Low Carbon Living

Sydney Melbourne

BrisbanePerth

ENERGY AND GHG PROFILE FOR ALTERNATIVELOCAL ENERGY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES – CIRCA 2009 (Victoria)

CO2-e saved and produced by local energy technologies

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Sol

ar -

Pho

tovo

ltaic

1500

W

Sol

ar -

Pho

tovo

ltaic

3000

W

Sol

ar -

Pho

tovo

ltaic

4500

W

Win

d - T

urbi

ne

Sol

ar h

ydro

gen

-Fu

el c

ell

Gro

und

sour

cehe

at p

ump

-14

kW th

erm

al

Gro

und

sour

cehe

at p

ump

-21

kW th

erm

al

Gro

und

sour

cehe

at p

ump

- 7kW

ther

mal

sha

red

Gas

- Fu

el c

ell

Gas

- C

CH

PE

ngin

e

Sol

ar -

Hot

wat

er- e

lect

ric b

oost

Sol

ar -

Hot

wat

er- g

as b

oost

Zero emissions Low emissions Hot Water

CO

2-e

(kg/

yr)

Generated hot waterGenerated coolingGenerated heatingGenerated electricityConsumed gasConsumed electricity

SCENARIO MODELLING:MULTIPLE HYBRID BUILDING SCENARIOS

NET CO2-e EMISSIONS FOR SELECTED SCENARIOS IN TRANSITION TO ZERO CARBON DWELLINGS + ENERGY FROM THE CITY

Net CO2-e for Hybrid buildings scenarios47.3

9.5

2.9-0.2

-1.3

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Worst case 2.5star house

New 5 star house DG enhanced 2.5star house

5 star carbonneutral house

7 star zerocarbon house

CO2-

e (t/

yr/d

wel

ling)

Scenarios

Melbourne average (11.1)

Comparative Assessment of Emissions from Embodied and Operating Energy of a Dwelling

Life cycle impact (kg CO2-e/m2/annum)

Melbourne Sydney Brisbane

Net embodied energy

emissions (EEE)3.55 3.57 3.56

Operational (heating

and cooling) energy

emissions (OEE)

10.05 3.65 4.16

Ratio of EEE to OEE 1:2.8 1:1.0 1:1.2

→ With continued increase in operating energy efficiency of dwellings (ie approaching 1:1 in milder climate zones) FOCUS SHIFTS TO EMBODIED ENERGY EFFICIENCIES IN BUILDING DESIGN

Note: assumes 50 year life span for dwelling; Source: Carre (2011)

Direct from CADto Analysis

Source: CSIRO

TRANSITION TOOLS: DESIGN VISUALISATION & AUTOMATEDASSESSMENT OF ECO-EFFICIENCY PERFORMANCE OF BUILDING

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3D CAD OBJECTSCreating CAD models of Buildings

AUTOMATED TAKE-OFFComponent Material Quantities using Reasoning Rules

LIFE CYCLE INVENTORY DATABASEProcess method models (e.g. Boustead)

9620 sub& super

structure

9607 pour ground beam

9605 pour RC 125mm slabs

9608 pour edge beams

9610 pour pad footings

9609 pour piers


Building Model

9003 Produce CaSO4

9012 Crush Limestone

EAF /BFBOF

Steelmaking

9610 Crush and Deliver Aggregate

9102 Pellet & Deliver Ore

9116 Crush Stone & Ship

9152 Crush & Ship Coal

9013 Mill Limestone

9004 DeliverCaSO4

Timber Milling

Mill end PlywoodMaking

9051 Mine & Deliver Steel Making Coal

9101 Mine & Deliver Iron Ore to Whyalla

9011 Quarry Limestone

9018 Quarry & Deliver Building Sand

4030 Quarry aggregate


9002 Mine Gypsum

9000 Quarry & Deliver Si Sand

9001 Mine & Deliver Bituminous Coal

Timber getting

Forestry cultivation

9219 Bolts & Connectors

9015 Dry Process

Cement Clinker

9218 Mesh Reinforcing9217 Mill Bar Reinforcing

9221 Quikmix

And Deliver Concrete

Deliver formwork

9016 mix and deliver 25 MPa bulk

cement

9223 Pump, Fill and Float

9222 Construct formwork

9017 bag & deliver 25

MPa cement for mortar

9220 Deliver &

Place Reinforcing

Steel

9620 sub& super

structure





9609 pour piers


9620 sub& super

structure





9609 pour piers


Building Model

9003 Produce CaSO4


9003 Produce CaSO4


9003 Produce CaSO4


EAF /BFBOF

Steelmaking

EAF /BFBOF

Steelmaking

9610 Crush and Deliver Aggregate










9013 Mill Limestone

9004 DeliverCaSO4

9013 Mill Limestone

9004 DeliverCaSO4

Timber Milling


Timber Milling








9018 Quarry & Deliver Building Sand

4030 Quarry aggregate9018 Quarry & Deliver

Building Sand

4030 Quarry aggregate


9002 Mine Gypsum




9002 Mine Gypsum



Timber getting


Timber getting


9219 Bolts & Connectors

9015 Dry Process

Cement Clinker

9218 Mesh Reinforcing9217 Mill Bar Reinforcing

9221 Quikmix

And Deliver Concrete

Deliver formwork

Deliver formwork

9016 mix and deliver 25 MPa bulk

cement

9223 Pump, Fill and Float

9222 Construct formwork

9017 bag & deliver 25

MPa cement for mortar

9220 Deliver &

Place Reinforcing

Steel

KEY INDICATORSLife Cycle Inventory Analysis Indicators

Environmentalperformance

Output

Economicperformance

Climate change

Carcinogens

Eutrophication

Resourcedepletion

Capital cost

Human health

Inventory

Input:OilCoalOres::

Output:OilCoalOres::

::

Ecosystem quality

Resources

Capital cost


Economicperformance

Impact category Damage category Single indicator

Comparison


Output

Economicperformance

Climate change

Carcinogens

Eutrophication

Resourcedepletion

Capital cost

Human health

Inventory

Input:OilCoalOres::

Output:OilCoalOres::

::

Ecosystem quality

Resources

Capital cost


Economicperformance

Impact category Damage category Single indicator

Comparison

International Alliance for

InteroperabilityManufacturing Informatics

TRANSITION TECHNOLOGY:VIRTUAL DESIGN + ASSESSMENT

LCADesign:Policy Focus Domain Focus

Building Appliances Energy

Innovation in Technology & Housing Design

7+ energy star rated housing; retrofit programs; expand regulatory impact statements to incorporate costs of negative externalities; BIM tools for real time eco-efficiency performance assessment during design

Smart, low energy appliances; extend energy efficiency standards beyond whitegoods to all domestic appliances

Local renewable energy generation –targeted incentives in niche manufacturing (eg integrated PV-building products) and to domestic consumers

Household Behaviour Change

Marketing value of smaller floor space; use of smart meters

Fewer appliances,simpler life; real time feedback on appliance energy use

Energy conservation strategies; attitudes to environment, local energy generation etc

POLICY ARENASFOR GREENING THE RESIDENTIAL (BUILDING) SECTOR

CRC for Low Carbon Living

Research Programs

1. Integrated Building Products (Technology)2. Low Carbon Precincts (Design)3. Engaged Communities (Behaviour Change)

Budget: currently A$ 104 MillionStart date: 1 July 2012 (for 7 years)

Research PartnersCSIRO, Uni NSW, Swinburne, Melbourne, Uni

SA, Curtin

52 Government and industry partners

s.3.2.newton [호환 모드] · 2012-06-19 4 energy and ghg profile for plug-in appliances –circa...

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