s3_110930 ppp presn_raghu swamy
TRANSCRIPT
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8/3/2019 S3_110930 PPP Presn_Raghu Swamy
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Financial ModelBMRCL
The views expressed in these presentations are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of
the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the
source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice,opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.
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Salient Features
Non-sovereign lending opportunity originated directly by ADB
Project configured prior to ADBs intervention
Bankability assessment (DSCR focus) vis--vis viability estimation (IRRs)
Equitable structure for enhancing project financials whenever needed shadow
fees
Leverage
lending of
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Financial Modeling Process
3
Debt Service Coverage RatioAssumptions Commercial conditions
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Project Cost and Sources of Finance
ComponentAmount
USD mio
Total Construction Cost 2514
Pre-operation Expenses 151
Financing Charges 8
Interest During Construction 143
Total Project Cost 2665
Particulars % of Project Cost
Equity 30.00%
Sub-debt 25.00%
Other Debt 45.00%
Debt 70.00%
Organisation Type % of Project Cost
GoI Equity 15.00%
GoK Equity 15.00%
GoI Sub debt 10.00%
GoK Sub debt 15.00%
JICA Debt 14.67%ADB (Non-
Sovereign) Debt 9.52%
Commercial Banks Debt 22.17%
Total 100.00%
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Cash Flows
Options considered for improving bankability
Equity infusion in the initial operation period
Longer tenure of debt drawdown
Moratorium on interest payments
Subordinate-debt financing with bullet repayment of principal and interest
SHADOW FEE
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Sensitivity Analysis
Value
Cumulative
Probability
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
100 1090 2080 3070 4060 5050 6040 7030 8020 9010 10000
EV=989
BaseValue0
0.05
0
0
0
0
0
Traffic Growth Factor
Tariff Escalation
Construction Cost Sensitivity Factor
Base Traffic Increment
Base Tariff Factor
O&M - Manpower Cost Factor
O&M - Energy Cost Factor
Value
8000 6400 4800 3200 1600 0 1600 3200 4800 6400 8000
Base Value: 3601
0.02 0.05
0 0.1
0.1 0.1
0.05 0.1
0 0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
Base00.0500000
SensType
ValueValueValueValueValueValueValue
LowValue0.050.10.10.10.10.10.1
HighValue0.0200.10.0500.10.1
LowResult
49143158
25602744275834673472
HighResult
5496699246364030360137343729
Swing
104101015120771286842267258
Description
Traffic Growth FactorTariff EscalationConstruction Cost Sensitivity FactorBase Traffic IncrementBase Tariff FactorO&M - Manpower Cost FactorO&M - Energy Cost Factor
Parameter Value
Project IRR 5.68%
Project NPV @
WACC (Rs.Cr)-2,358
DSCR (Min) 0.45
DSCR (Average) 2.06
LLCR 1.67
PLCR 1.81
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Project Structure
BMRCLADB
Maintenance ContractorsConstruction Contractors
Construction
Contracts
Direct / Operation
and Maintenance
Contracts
ADB loan
AgreementTrust and retention A/C -SPV revenues
GoK support from non-project
related non tax funds
GOI &GOK
Commercial
Banks
loan
Agreement
JICA
JICA loanAgreement
Equity/ sub-debt
Agreement
GOK
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Lending Structure*
ADB
BMRCL
DebtServicing
LoanGoK Support - Shadow Fees
and security structure
(Triggers only when shortfall
in Net cash flow)
TRA
All revenues of BMRCL
First Charge
(after O&M exp.)
DSRA account
*Simplified version
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Thank You D T V Raghu Rama SwamyChief Executive OfficerInfrastructure Development Corporation
(Karnataka) Limited
Bangalore, India(+91) (80) 43448004