Russian Politics in TransitionPolitical Challenges and Changing Agendas

• 5 possibilities for Russia’s future– Progression towards marketization and

democratization– Gradual introduction of “soft authoritarianism”– Return to extreme authoritarianism– Disintegration of Russia into individual states– Economic decline, civil war, and military

expansionism

Russian Politics in TransitionPolitical challenges and Changing Agendas

• Russia’s resentment against Western dominance seen in the country’s opposition to NATO expansion, Desert Fox operation of ’98 and NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in ’99.

• Russia showed a changing attitude towards the West, post- 9/11– Committed to join fight against international terrorism– NATO-Russia Council formed in 2002– G-8 announced Russian presidency in 2006– Putin and Bush agreed to a reduction of nuclear arsenals

in both countries in May, 2002

Russian Politics in TransitionPolitical Challenges and Changing Agendas

• Despite signs of warmer relations towards the west, disagreements remain:– Russia criticized American withdrawal from the

Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty– Russia also opposed military action to take

Saddam Hussein out of power

• Decreased reliance on Western imports came with the 1998 devaluation of the ruble

Russian Politics in TransitionPolitical Challenges and Changing Agendas

• In 1998, 67% of Russians rated government performance as poor in economic policy, crime control, unemployment, social security and health care; the figure dropped to 53% in 2000.

• Most Russians are too preoccupied with economic struggles to worry about forming political identities and Russian intermediary organizations are weak. These conditions allow politicians to appeal directly to peoples emotions.

• High level of education and increased exposure to international media may spark political activism.

Russian Politics in TransitionRussian Politics in Comparative Perspective

• Russia’s high level of development offers advantages and disadvantages in developing:– Damaged natural environment, traditional bureaucratic structures, a large

nuclear arsenal and existing modern structures all impede the progress of Russian development

• Compared to the other 15 nations of the former Soviet Union, Russia has faired decently in democratization/ modernization

• With the exception of the Chechen crisis, Russia has managed to stay out of major domestic conflicts unlike many of its neighbors

• Russia’s success or failure will undoubtedly influence the struggles for democracy in neighboring countries and other “developing democracies.”