Russian Foreign Policy: drivers and perspectives

SDU, 6 February 2015

Ambassador Thomas Winkler, Moscow

Introduction Russian foreign policy: the drivers and issues The links:

The current economic situation The internal political situation: consequences

and scenarios Foreign policy perspectives Conclusions and Q&A

Agenda

THE DRIVERS

The political interests of Russia: Security, paranoia and empire building - OLD Economic development - NEW Regime-change , flower revolutions and ”no interference in

internal affairs” – OLD AND NEW The bi-polar world view with Russia as a global player - OLD Respect…….- OLD Ideology: Own values v. international values – OLD AND NEW

Russian Foreign Policy: the drivers and the issues

The need for an external enemy in time of crisis – SO OLD The state media campaign, fighting for Russians everywhere - OLD

AND NEW

Consistency and upgrading Population convinced about ”the external enemy”

High level of endurance and patience No changes in policy in ”near-abroad” or? A partner globally in some areas, An adversary globally in other areas

ALWAYS REMEMBER THE NUANCES – NOT ONE RUSSIAN POLICY THAT FITS ALL SITUATIONS

THE ISSUES Crimea Ukraine – and the Russian purposes MEPP, Iran, disarmament, counter-terrorism, ISIL Syria, Human Rights Denmark – Russia, including the Arctic

BUT……

Falling oilprices in an economy based on exporting raw materials – the ”curse” of the Russian economy

A very weak rouble, capital flight Sanctions and need for refinancing of debt Own ”sanctions Rising inflation, stop for investments Deepening financial crisis around the corner? Closures, unemployment – unrest? Challeging the budget and the reserves Choise: centralisation or reforms?

The current economic situation

Unrest? From the middle class? From others? Locally? Putin clear 18.12.: social promises stand, no (futher)

centralisation, no currency control, more economic freedom

But: does he mean it – and what does ”the others” say?

Internal politics

The internal political consequenses

Alternatives: Internally in the government – more realism, defense expenses More positive development – or too late?

Or a new 1964? centralisation, currency control, more negative development

The answer? The internal power struggle: – hard externally, reforms internally?

Sanctions – internal og eksternal – per summer 2015: more, less or none?

SE Ukraine – stabilisation, escalation or more muddling through?

Crimea – not up for discussion Relationship to the EU:

More classical bilateralisation – the weaker links Relationship with Denmark – the history and the

balances Relationship with the USA – no improvements in sight ”Turning East” – reality or illusion? Euroasiatic Economic – same – and our new ”friends”

Foreign Policy Consequences

Decisive factors Internal politics, economy The endurance of the Russian population Will other states stand up?

Ukraine in five years? Pick and choose Russia in 2040? The importance of P2P

Conclusion